Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (xxxx) xxxx–xxxx

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

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A review of Weibull functions in wind sector

Piotr Wais
Institute of Power Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, al. Jana Pawla II 37, 31-864 Kraków, Poland

A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T

Keywords: The accurate assessment of the potential wind energy at a define site is very important from economic point of
Wind energy view, measures cost effectiveness of the project and helps estimating future incomes, revenues. Knowledge of
Two-parameter Weibull distribution wind characteristics also facilitates a proper turbine design selection. There are different techniques for wind
Three-parameter Weibull distribution energy evaluation. The direct wind speed measurement is the most accurate method to determine wind
Available wind power
conditions, but often the different wind speed frequency distributions are proposed. One of the most widely
Null wind speed
Frequency of wind speed
used distribution is Weibull distribution. The two-parameter Weibull distribution is recognized as an
appropriate model and the most widely used in the wind industry sector. In some cases, in which the
probability of null wind is significant, the Weibull distribution does not reveal good conformity for the low wind
speed. In theory, it seems that the three-parameter Weibull distribution, which takes into account the frequency
of null winds, may better represent wind ranges with high percentages of null wind speeds and may give better
results. In the paper, the review of the literature is carried out on the application of two and three-parameter
Weibull distribution in wind energy analyses and also focuses on the comparison of results received from
different probability density functions, used in cited papers, with the frequency of 0–2 m/s wind speed range in
real data. For higher percentages of null wind speeds or the wind speed below 2 m/s, the three-parameter
Weibull model should have the advantage in relation to two-parameter Weibull distribution, gives more
appropriate results and can be proposed as an alternative to wind energy estimation technique.

1. Introduction is to carry out meteorological measurements for each proposed turbine

Energy consumption continues increasing in our lives. Based on the
current policies, which support and promote initiatives that generate
energy from renewable sources, there is a large increase in the
construction of the wind power plants. For this reason, in the past
decade, the global wind industry has been still growing, and its
participation in the energy production increases every year. Wind
energy also plays the important role in countries’ economic growth,
generating additional jobs and technology development. Ongoing
innovations in turbine design help improving the turbine efficiency
and widening the range of wind speed, in which the wind turbine
works. Then, the energy captured from the wind for the turbines that
operate at the area with the poorer wind resources can be maximised.
Despite new technical solutions and more efficient energy conversion,
the turbine system cost and economic analyses are one of the most
important factors to evaluate the advantage or disadvantages between
wind and conventional power systems.
The turbine energy production depends mostly on the wind
capacity. Estimating the wind resources with wind characteristics and
having the wind turbine power curve, it is possible to calculate the
energy production and income. The best way to assess the wind energy
location. Unfortunately, that activity requires long time, and the
measurement cost is remarkable. On the other hand, the wind energy
can be determined using statistical analysis, especially for rough
calculations. In that case, the wind speed variation is characterized
by a probability distribution function. To calculate wind power, it is
necessary to find distribution parameters. Statistical analysis can also
be helpful to estimate and study the available wind energy in regions,
where wind data are not available.
The selection of the wind speed distribution function influences the
calculation outcome of the available wind energy or the wind turbine
performance at chosen locations. Wind speed frequency distribution
can be represented by various probability density functions including
the gamma function, the beta function, the lognormal function,
Rayleigh and Weibull distributions. Analysing the literature, it can be
seen that two-parameter Weibull distribution is most commonly and
widely used mathematical model to estimate available wind energy.
Also, it is used for the energy calculations in commercial programs.
Because the two-parameter Weibull probability function is not quite
appropriate for properly fitting the wind data of low wind speed, the
three-parameter Weibull probability function can be applied. In theory,
it seems that the three-parameter Weibull distribution, which takes

E-mail address: wais@mech.pk.edu.pl.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.014
Received 18 February 2015; Received in revised form 20 September 2016; Accepted 3 December 2016
1364-0321/ © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Wais, P., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.014
P. Wais Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (xxxx) xxxx–xxxx

into account the frequency of null winds, may better represent wind
ranges with high percentages of null wind speeds. In this paper, an
literature investigation are made on the suitability of the Weibull
probability distribution functions to fit wind speed data and choose a
more accurate method for evaluation of wind speed characteristics.
Considering the papers, the review is carried out on the application of
two and three-parameter Weibull distribution in wind energy analyses
taking in consideration the frequency of lower values of wind speed.
2. Theoretical, available wind power
Estimation of the available energy in the wind at a site, in which the
wind turbine is proposed to be located, is one of the preliminary steps
in the planning of a wind energy project. Wais [1] describes the wind
evaluation technique and explains its relation to energy production.
The available power of the free-air stream that flows through the
cross-sectional area AR , at constant velocity v , is:
1 2 1 2
P AVAIL v = Pv = ṁ v = ρQv = ρ AR v
2 2
speed only), the statistical method can be used.
3. Weibull probability distribution
The statistical calculation of the wind energy requires the knowl-
edge of the distribution of the wind speeds at a given site. A correct
determination of the probability distribution for wind speed values is
very important in evaluating wind speed energy in a region. Though
different wind speed distribution models are applied to fit the wind
speed over a time period, the two-parameter Weibull function is
accepted as the most popular technique. It is used widely by research-
ers involved both in wind speed and wind energy analysis for many
years. Furthermore, according to international standards [5], the
annual energy production is estimated by applying a Rayleigh distribu-
tion, which is identical to a Weibull distribution with a shape factor of
2. Mentioned procedure is used for measuring the power performance
characteristics of a single wind turbine generator system and provides a
uniform methodology ensuring consistency and accuracy in the mea-
1 3 surement and analysis of power performance of wind turbine.
2 (1)

where ρ is the density of air, Q is the volume flow passing through the 3.1. Two parameter Weibull distribution
π D2
given cross section, AR = is a rotor cross-sectional area, where D
4
and is the turbine rotor diameter. The two-parameter Weibull probability density function is ex-
Eq. (1) demonstrates that the factors influencing the available pressed by:
power in the wind stream are the area of the wind rotor, the air density, ⎛ k ⎞ ⎛ v ⎞k −1 −⎛⎜ v ⎞⎟
k

and the wind velocity. Effect of the wind velocity on the wind power p (v ) = ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ e ⎝ A ⎠
⎝ A ⎠⎝ A ⎠ (6)
value is more prominent owing to its cubic relationship. The determi-
nation of the wind conditions at the intended site of the wind turbine where v is the wind speed and v > 0 , k > 0 , A > 0 .
setting is an important task because small changes in wind velocity can Dimensionless factor k determines the shape of the curve and is
result in significant variation in energy production. Because the wind called a shape factor. Parameter A, in m/s, is the scale parameter. The
velocity varies, it is necessary to know the frequency distribution and to distributions take different shapes with different values of k and A.
give the information on the number of hours for which the velocity is The energy available in the wind may also be estimated using the
within a specific range [2]. Weibull probability density function. Once the wind velocities and its
Wind speed distribution determines the wind energy available and distribution are available, then knowing the probability p (v ) for which
the performance of an energy conversion system for a particular the wind velocity is v , the total available wind power can be written as:
location. Using the wind data, the wind speed vi and its frequency, ∞
the available wind power and energy can be estimated by adding up the P AVAIL = ∫0 P v⋅p (v ) d v
(7)
energy corresponding to all possible wind speeds. Because for a given
velocity v i : Introducing Eqs. (1) and (6), the Eq. (7) is written as:
⎛ ⎞k
P =
1 .
m v 2 =
1
ρ A R⋅v 3 1 ⎛ k ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞k −1 ∞ −⎜ v ⎟
AVAIL i
2
i
2
i
(2) P AVAIL 2P =
2
ρ AR ⋅⎜ ⎟ ⋅⎜ ⎟
⎝ A⎠ ⎝ A⎠
∫0 v 3⋅(v )k −1e ⎝ A⎠ dv
(8)
and
or
ti = p (v i)⋅t YEAR (3) ⎛ ⎞k
1 1 ∞ −⎜ v ⎟
then the available wind energy and power can be given by: P AVAIL 2P = ρ AR ⋅k ⋅ k
2 A
∫0 (v ) e ⎝ A ⎠
k +2 dv
(9)
n
1 and
EAVAIL M = ρ A R⋅t YEAR ∑ p (v i)⋅v i 3
2 (4)
i =1 E AVAIL 2P =P AVAIL 2P⋅t YEAR (10)
or Eqs. (9) and (10) allow to calculate the available wind power and
n energy for two-parameter Weibull distribution.
1
PAVAIL M = ρ A R⋅ ∑ p (v i)⋅v i
3
2 i =1 (5) 3.2. Three parameter Weibull distribution
Above equations can be used to calculate the available wind energy
and wind power directly from the measurements. According to the international recommendation, the Rayleigh
It should be mentioned that statistically predictable values also distribution should be used for wind speed data analysis, however,
require long-term measurements. Providing reliable wind data should the use of this distribution lead to incorrect results. For instance, this
be the first step in any wind turbine investments. Knowing the mean phenomenon is present when the frequency of the null wind speed
annual wind speed is not enough to provide a precise energy calcula- shows higher values. In such circumstances, the three-parameter
tion even if the mean annual wind velocity is determined on the basis of Weibull distribution can be applied.
measurements taken over decades [3]. It also requires information on The three parameter Weibull probability density function is given
how frequently the individual wind speeds of the spectrum can be by Eq. (11):
expected at a given location. To achieve a reliable statistical basis, it is k
⎛ k ⎞ ⎛ v − u ⎞k −1 −⎛⎜ v − u ⎞⎟
necessary to take an evaluation period of at least several years [4]. With p (v ) = ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ e ⎝ A ⎠
a limited amount of wind data from a given site (e.g. average wind ⎝ A ⎠⎝ A ⎠ (11)

2
P. Wais
where factor k , no unit of measurement, is the Weibull shape
parameter and parameter A is the scale parameter in a unit equal to
the wind speed unit. The third parameter, u , is a location parameter,
and its value is lower than zero. The Weibull location parameter unit is
the same as the parameter A.
Total available wind power can be written as:
∞ about wind velocity occurrence. Looking at the figures of observed
P AVAIL = ∫0 P v⋅p (v ) d v
Introducing Eqs. (1) and (11), the Eq. (12) is written as:
1 ⎛ k ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞k −1 ∞ −⎜ v − u ⎟
P AVAIL 3P = ρ AR ⋅⎜ ⎟⋅⎜ ⎟ ∫0 v 3⋅(v − u )k −1e
2 ⎝ A ⎠ ⎝ A⎠
or
⎛ ⎞k
1 1 ∞ −⎜ v − u ⎟
P AVAIL 3P =
2
ρ AR ⋅k⋅ k
A
∫0 v 3⋅(v − u )k −1e ⎝ A ⎠
and
E AVAIL 3P =P AVAIL 3P⋅t YEAR
Eqs. (14) and (15) enable to calculate the available wind power and
energy for three-parameter Weibull distribution.
4. Two and three-parameter Weibull probability function in
literature
A number of studies are carried out to assess the wind energy by
means of the Weibull distribution. It should be mentioned that a
proper statistical analysis of wind data is an important phase in a wind
resource evaluation. To predict correctly the wind resources, it is
necessary to evaluate Weibull parameters. When fitting the data,
various methods to calculate the unknown distribution parameters of
the Weibull distribution are proposed in various papers. Mostly
authors concentrate on estimation of the unknown parameters of the
Weibull distribution. In the current work, the connection is outlined
between the chosen probability distribution functions and low wind
speed occurrences.
Steward and Essenwanger [6] provide information about frequency
distributions of wind speed near the earth surface. They analyze over
40 different stations with different 0–2 m/s wind range frequency. The
three-parameter Weibull model is found to be very flexible, adequately
describes most wind speed distributions and reaches better results
comparing to the two-parameter Weibull model. Parameters for three-
parameter Weibull model are computed using the moment method.
The three-parameter Weibull model is discussed for estimation of
mean wind power densities by Van Der Auwera et al. [7]. Additionally,
the variation with height of the three-parameter model is investigated.
Using the wind speed observations, it is shown that the three-
parameter model gives more reliable fit to empirical wind speed
frequency data than two-parameter Weibull model. There are not clear
presentation of the wind data in the paper.
Jamil et al. [8] use the two parameter Weibull probability distribu-
tion function to find out the wind energy density from the statistical
data of wind speed measurements. The probability of the wind speed in
a range of 0–2 m/s is 13.25%. The values of Weibull parameters are
estimated by least square method. It is emphasized that the Weibull
and Rayleigh probability functions are useful tools for wind energy
density estimation but are not quite appropriate for properly fitting the
actual wind data of low mean speed, for which other methods of the
probability function should be proposed.
The Weibull and lognormal models are proposed for fitting wind
speed distribution by Garcia et al. [9]. For this purpose, they calculate
an average of the six data corresponding to the periods of 10 min each
and evaluate the behavior of wind. The suitability of both distributions
is judged from the coefficient of determination with a linear regression
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (xxxx) xxxx–xxxx
for the Weibull distribution and a nonlinear regression for the
lognormal distribution. Only for the stations with the lowest mean
speed (less than 2 m/s), the lognormal distribution fits the data better
than the Weibull distribution. For other wind speeds, this analysis
leads to the conclusion that the Weibull distribution is very useful to
estimate the potential wind energy. There is no direct information
(12) frequency against wind speed, it seems that the probability of 0–2 m/s
wind speed range is from 4% to 10.2% and depends on the station
localization.
⎛ ⎞k Lun and Lam [10] use two-parameter Weibull function to describe
⎝ A ⎠ dv the wind speed frequency distribution for a given set of wind data for
(13) three different locations. The objective of the work is to highlight the
discrepancies of the calculated parameters of measurements taken
from three different types of locations: an open sea area, a high up in a
city centre and a city area within the territory. Based on the long term
dv
(14) data source, the statistically calculated values are obtained (data are
not presented). It is found that the numerical values of the shape and
scale parameters vary over a wide range for these weather stations. The
(15) wind data, obtained from the city area, showed that the two parameters
of Weibull distribution both have a tendency to grow within the
analyzed years.
Because the Weibull distribution is a two-parameter function
commonly used to fit the wind speed frequency distribution then
Seguro and Lambert [11] investigate the accuracy of three methods for
calculating the parameters of the Weibull wind speed distribution for
wind energy analysis: the maximum likelihood method, the proposed
modified maximum likelihood method, and the graphical method. Out
of these methods, the maximum likelihood method is the recom-
mended method for estimating the parameters of the Weibull distribu-
tion. The graphical method is less accurate and less robust since its
accuracy is affected by external variables such as the bin size in the
cumulative frequency distribution. The modified maximum likelihood
method is the recommended technique by authors, since its accuracy is
superior to the graphical method regardless of the bin size. In the
paper, wind speed data are available in frequency distribution format
and are equal to 2% for the velocity range 0–1 m/s and 7% for the
range 1–2 m/s.
Celik [12] presents a statistical analysis of wind power density
based on the Weibull and Rayleigh models. The wind speed data are
arranged in the frequency distribution and showed in a table for one of
the month. The frequency is equal 56% for the 0–2 m/s wind velocity
range. The wind energy potential of the region is statistically examined.
Two probability density functions are derived from time-series data
and fitted to the measured probability distributions. The wind energy
potential is studied based on the Weibull and the Rayleigh models. The
correlation coefficient shows that the Weibull model better fits the
measured monthly probability density distributions than the Rayleigh
model and provides better power density estimations.
The two parameter Weibull distribution is also applied by Dorvlo
[13] to model wind speeds at four sites. The long term empirical
distribution of the wind speed is given and it varies from 0.2% to 2.7%
(for different stations) for wind velocity range of 0–2 m/s. The scale
and shape parameters are estimated using three methods, the Chi-
square method, method of moments and regression method. It was
observed that using the Chi-squared method gives the best overall fit to
the distribution of the wind data. Both the scale and shape parameters
varies widely over the months.
Estimation of energy output for small-scale wind power generators
is the subject of Celik's work [14]. Monthly wind energy production is
calculated using the Weibull-representative wind data. The wind speed
is grouped into classes and the frequency distribution for wind velocity
of 0–1 m/s and 1–2 m/s is 8.2% and 16.0% respectively. The Weibull
function parameters are calculated analytically using gamma function
and based on the wind distribution statistics received from the
measured data. It is shown that the Weibull function estimates
3
P. Wais
accurately the wind energy output. The overall error in estimation of
monthly energy outputs for the total 96 months is 2.79%.
Ramirez and Carta [15] analyze different methods to estimate the
parameter of the most popular Weibull probability density distribution.
The presented histogram shows that the frequency of 0–2 m/s wind
speed range is about 7.9%. The proposed methodology uses the
autocorrelated wind speeds to estimate Weibull parameters. The
maximum likelihood method is employed to calculate the Weibull
scale and shape parameters. The Anderson–Darling test is used to see
whether a sample of wind data comes from a population with Weibull
distribution. The results show that the application of autocorrelated
successive hourly mean wind speeds has no appreciable effect on the
shape of the probability density distribution.
Carta and Ramirez [16] study two-component mixture Weibull
distribution as a useful alternative function for heterogenous wind
regimes. An analysis is made in the paper of three the most frequently
used methods in the estimation of the five parameters of the two-
component mixture Weibull distribution: method of moment, max-
imum likelihood method and least square method. Wind speed
frequency histograms are used to present the data for the analysis
carried out in the paper. The frequencies of 0–2 m/s wind speed are
about 5.8%, 10.3%, 10.4%, and 10.9% for four different locations.
The same authors [17] assess the benefits of applying the general
probability distribution, obtained through application of the maximum
entropy principle in the estimation of wind energy. For this purpose, a
comparison is made between the two parameter Weibull distribution
and the distributions gained through the maximum entropy principle.
The evaluation is based on an analysis of the fit level to the cumulative
frequencies of the hourly mean wind speeds recorded at weather
stations. The application of the probability plot correlation coefficient
shows that the Weibull distribution, whose parameters are estimated
using the maximum likelihood principle, provides worse fits in all the
analyzed cases than those obtained through the maximum entropy
distributions. However, the maximum entropy principle method com-
paring to the Weibull distribution cannot be expressed in closed form;
has no scale structure, the estimation of the parameters is more
laborious. Histograms show that the experimental frequencies of 0–
2 m/s wind speed range are 3.0%, 7.8% and 8.9% for each of the three
stations.
In order to develop a more accurate method for estimation of wind
speed characteristics, Akdag et al. [18] analyze the characteristics of
wind speed data. The speed frequency histograms received from
observed data are presented for nine stations. The frequency of wind
speed in a range 0–2 m/s is from 6.5% to 26.4%. The selected
distributions for examination are the typical two-parameter Weibull
wind speed distribution and the two-component mixture Weibull
distribution, involving five parameters: two shape parameters, two
scale parameters, and one proportionality parameter. The parameters
of the mixed Weibull distribution are calculated using the maximum
likelihood method. The suitability of the distributions is judged from
the coefficient of determination and the fit standard error tests. In most
cases, the mixture of two Weibull distributions provides less relative
errors in determining the annual wind power density and energy
production. That distribution better fits to the wind speed data also in
cases where the wind speed data does not show a bimodal distribution,
under the restriction of the very low percentage of null wind speeds. It
means that the capacity factor for wind power plants should be
computed by using mixed Weibull distribution.
Akpinar and Akpinar [19] compare the Weibull distribution and the
maximum entropy principle with the Singly Truncated from below
Normal Weibull mixture distribution and the two-component mixture
Weibull distribution. The evaluation is focused on the level of fit to the
observed wind probability distributions and the ability to describe the
experimental mean wind power density. The measured data are
presented and the frequency for wind speed range of 0–2 m/s is
demonstrated in graphical form. It is about 17.3%, 39.5%, 42%, 66%
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (xxxx) xxxx–xxxx
for different four stations. The parameters of the distributions are
estimated using the least squares method. The suitability of the
distributions is judged from the probability plot, correlation coefficient
plot, root mean squared error and determination coefficient. Based on
the results obtained, they conclude that the mixture distribution,
proposed in this paper, provides very flexible models for wind speed
studies and represents a useful alternative to the two parameter
Weibull and maximum entropy principle probability density distribu-
tion.
A new technique is developed to estimate Weibull distribution
parameters for wind energy applications in the study of Akdag and
Dinler [20]. The data are displayed in a histogram, and the frequency of
wind speed range of 0–2 m/s is equal 13.8%, 17.8%, 33% and 34.2%
for four different localizations respectively. The new method, power
density method, is compared with the most frequently used methods:
graphic, maximum likelihood and moment methods. Suitability of
these methods is judged based on different goodness of fit tests
(coefficient of determination and root mean squared error). Results
of this study indicate that power density method is an adequate
approach to estimate Weibull parameters and is more efficient than
other methods. The proposed method has also simple formulation,
does not require binning and solving linear least square problem or
iterative procedure. The superiority of method over other methods can
be seen with estimation capability of power density.
New approach for the evaluation of numerical methods, used in
calculation of the Weibull parameters for the prediction of wind
resource, are proposed by Andrade et al. [21]. The paper performs a
statistical analysis of seven mathematical methods to estimate the
parameters of the Weibull distribution, calculated directly from the
values of bind power. The data are collected in two coastal stations in
Brasil and wind distributions are presented in relative figures. The 0–
2 m/s wind range frequencies are 1.2% and 13.2%. The methods used
in the development of this research are the graphical method,
maximum likelihood method, modified maximum likelihood method,
empirical method, moment method, energy pattern factor method and
the equivalent energy method. Analysis of efficiency and accuracy are
done by statistical tests: analysis of variance, root mean square error,
and chi-square using data from wind power, not wind speed. That
approach is different from what can be seen in literature. The values of
shape and scale parameters are calculated directly from the values of
wind power and are close to those that are found using wind speed
data.
Chang [22] estimates the wind energy potential using different
probability density function. Annual wind speed distributions for three
stations are indicated. The frequency of 0–2 m/s wind speed range is
5.1%, 6.9% and 10.5%. In addition to the probability density function,
derived with maximum entropy principle, several different mixture
probability functions are applied such as: the bimodal Weibull func-
tion, the truncated Normal Weibull function, the mixture Gamma–
Weibull function, mixture truncated normal function and two-para-
meter Weibull function. Judgment criteria include four kinds of
statistical errors: the max error in Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, root
mean square error, Chi-square error and relative error of wind
potential energy. The results show that all the mixture functions and
the maximum entropy function describe wind characterizations better
than the conventional Weibull function if wind regime presents two
humps on it, irrespective of wind speed and power density. Gamma–
Weibull function shows good ability to estimate both wind speed and
power density, and therefore it is considered as a useful alternative to
the conventional Weibull function for wind energy applications.
Rocha et al. [23] evaluate seven numerical methods for adjusting
the two-parameter Weibull distribution of wind speeds: graphical
method, maximum likelihood method, energy pattern factor method,
moment method, empirical method, modified maximum likelihood
method, equivalent energy method. Authors focus on the equivalent
energy method and compare the receiver results with other techniques
P. Wais
using the analysis of variance, the root mean square error, and the Chi-
square tests. The study aims to determine which techniques are
effective in determining the parameters of the Weibull distribution to
establish acceptable criteria for better utilization of wind power. Wind
speed data are collected in the northeast region of Brasil. The wind
frequency for the range of 0–2 m/s varies from 0% to 3.5% depending
on the locations and the year of the measurements. As a conclusion, the
equivalent energy method can be an efficient method for determining
the parameters of Weibull distribution curves. The graphical method
and the energy pattern factor method are the least effective methods to
fit Weibull distribution curves. There is also indication that numerical
methods, which use mathematical iterations to determine Weibull
parameters, present smaller error and are recommended in order to
provide more accurate results obtained with the Weibull distribution.
A review of probability density functions of wind speed is carried
out by Carta et al. [24]. The methods to estimate the parameters are
examined with the extensive collection of functions proposed in this
paper. Details are given of the analytical and numerical procedures
which are required for the estimation of parameters through the
method of moments, the maximum likelihood method and the least
square method. A comparison are also done in terms of the degree of fit
to experimental frequency histograms of wind speed and cube of the
wind speed. Frequency histograms indicate that the occurrences of 0–
2 m/s wind speed range are 6.6%, 7.6%, 8.9% and 14.4% for four
stations. The conclusion is reached that the Weibull distribution of two-
parameter presents a series of advantages with respect to the other
analyzed probability density functions: flexibility; the dependence on
only two parameters; the simplicity of the estimation of its parameters,
when its parameters are estimated from the sample, it has specific
goodness of fit tests. However, the two-parameter Weibull function
cannot represent all the wind regimes encountered in nature such as:
those with high percentages of null wind speeds, bimodal distributions.
Therefore, a suitable function must be selected for each wind regime in
order to minimize errors in the estimation of the energy production.
The L-moment numerical method, to estimate the parameters of
the Weibull distribution, is proposed by Arslan et al. [25]. The
proposed technique is presented and compared to moment method
and maximum likelihood method. The distribution of wind speed is not
presented in a clear way. To evaluate the methods, the mean square
error criteria are utilized. Monte Carlo simulation is used to review the
methods and estimate shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribu-
tion for which the wind power densities are calculated. It is noted that,
in comparison to the other methods, the L-moment numerical method
yields better results with small sample sizes.
Ahmad [26] modifies weighted least squares estimators for the
three-parameter Weibull distribution and shows theoretical approach
to evaluate data on failure strengths analysis. The method is suitable
for the cases in which maximum likelihood estimation can break down
for the three-parameter Weibull model. Proposed technique can be
used to estimate the maximum likelihood method.
Cousineau [27] also evaluates the three-parameter Weibull distri-
bution. He examines methods to calculate the parameters of three-
parameter Weibull distribution: maximum likelihood method, the
methods of moments; and a mixture of the previous two classes of
methods. The results show that the regular maximum likelihood
method is the worst method and should be avoided unless the sample
size is very large.
Alternative method to calculate the two parameter of Weibull
distribution is investigated by Carneiro et al. [28]. The work describes
the use of the new technique to estimate the Weibull parameters. The
attached histograms show that the frequencies of the 0–2 m/s wind
speed range are 1.1%, 1.8% and 4.1% for three different sites. The
application of computational intelligence techniques can optimize
determination of the parameters and reduce estimation errors of wind
turbines electricity production. The Particle Swarm Optimization is
compared with five other methods: moment method, empirical meth-
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (xxxx) xxxx–xxxx
od, energy pattern factor method, energy equivalent method and
maximum likelihood and shows the best performance in the three
sites under investigation.
Ouada et al. [29] evaluate the suitability of a large number of
probability density function, commonly used to model hydro-climatic
variables, to characterize short term wind speeds. Data are collected
from seven different stations. According to histograms, placed in the
paper, the frequencies of 0–2 m/s wind speed range are 8.5%, 8.8%,
11.5%, 18.3%, 19.8%, 31% and 43%. A comparison among one-
component parametric models, mixture models and a non-parametric
model is carried out. The suitability of a distribution to fit the wind
speed data is evaluated based on the log-likelihood, the coefficient of
determination, the Chi-square statistic and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov
statistic. Results indicate that, among the one-component parametric
distributions, the Kappa and Generalized gamma distributions provide
generally the best fit to the wind speed data at all heights and for all
stations. The two-component mixture distributions give a very good fit
and are generally superior to non-parametric distributions.
Heterogeneous mixture distribution for the frequency analysis of
wind speed is proposed by Shin et al. [30]. The wind speed distribu-
tions are presented in the histograms. The frequencies for wind speed
range of 0–2 m/s are 7.1%, 7.3%, 9.4%, 10.6%, 13.4%, 17.5% and
22.7% in seven different sites. Ten homogeneous and heterogeneous
mixture distributions are used and constructed by mixing the four
following probability distributions: gamma, Weibull, extreme value
type-one, and normal distributions. The Weibull and Kappa distribu-
tions are also employed as representatives of the conventional non-
mixture distributions. Maximum likelihood, expectation maximization
algorithm, and least squares methods are employed to fit the mixture
distributions. Results indicate that mixture distributions give the best
fit to wind speed data for all stations.
Pishgar-Komleh et al. [31] apply Weibull and Rayleigh distribution
functions to find out the best fitting tool to characterize the wind speed
data. The 0–2 m/s wind speed range frequency is 10.2% for a ten-year
period of observation. Results show that Weibull and Rayleigh dis-
tribution functions can fit the actual rate of wind speed well with
almost the same coefficient of determination value.
Altunkaynak et al. [32] derive the general wind power formulation
in terms of the statistical parameters by using the perturbation theory.
The formulation is very general and can be applied for any wind speed
probability distribution function. Its application to two-parameter
Weibull probability distribution of wind speeds is presented in full
detail. Wind speed data present the wind distribution in histograms.
The 0–2 m/s wind speed range frequencies can be found as 1.9%, 2.0%
and 3.1% for three different locations.
Yaniktepe et al. [33] investigate the wind energy potential and the
wind characteristics using the two-parameter Weibull and Rayleigh
distribution methods. A graphical method is applied to determine
Weibull parameters. Analyses of wind characteristics are conducted at
different temporal scales, such as yearly and monthly. Authors
demonstrate that these probability distributions are frequently used
for this type of the energy study. The 0–2 m/s wind speed range
frequencies is 60%.
All cited papers confirm that the wind speed can be represented by
vast number of probability density functions. The various studies
indicate that the two-parameter Weibull distribution is the most
popular model to express the wind speed frequency distribution and
to calculate the wind energy. On the other hand, although some
advantages of the Weibull distribution over the other distributions
used in wind energy field are shown, the two-parameter Weibull
distribution does not reveal good conformity in some cases. The
three-parameter Weibull distribution is applied rarely in the wind
industry sector. Lack of comparison to other models can cause that the
three-parameter Weibull distribution is underestimated. In the case of
significant frequency of low wind speed, the three-parameter Weibull
distribution can appropriate correspond to that wind data and give
P. Wais Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (xxxx) xxxx–xxxx

Table 1
Literature review.

Author Station Wind speed frequency for different wind velocities or bins (data from literature) Probability density Wind speed
number function interval
0 m/s 0–1 m/s 1 m/s 1–2 m/s 2 m/s

Steward [6] 0 – – – – – Three param. Weibull –

Van Der Auwera [7] 0 – – – – – Three param. Weibull –
Jamil [8] 1 – – 13.25%a – – Weibull and Rayleigh 2 m/s
Garcia [9] 1 – – 0.5%b – 3.5%b Weibull 1 m/s
2 0.0%b 4.2%b
3 2.2%b 5.5%b
4 0.9%b 4.1%b
5 1.8%b 4.2%b
6 2.1%b 8.1%b
Lun [10] 0 – – – – – Weibull 1 m/s
Seguro [11] 1 – 2.0% – 7.0% – Weibull 1 m/s
Celik [12] 1 – 19%b – 37%b – Weibull 1 m/s
Dorvlo [13] 1 – – 1.0a – – Weibull 0.5 m/s
2 2.0a
3 2.7a
4 0.2a
Celik [14]. 1 – 8.2% – 16.0% – Weibull 1 m/s
Ramirez [15] 1 – 3.8%b – 4.1%b – Weibull 1 m/s
Carta [16] 1 – 5.1%b – 5.2%b – Mixture Weibull 1 m/s
2 3.9%b 1.9%b distribution
3 4.8%b 6.1%b
4 2.4%b 8.0%b
Ramirez [17] 1 – 3.8%b – 4.0%b – Maximum entropy 1 m/s
2 1.1%b 1.9%b distribution
3 4.3%b 4.6%b
Akdag [18] 1 – – 7.8%b – 11.1%b Mixture Weibull 1 m/s
2 5.0%b 8.0%b distribution
3 9.4%b 17.0%b
4 2.5%b 4.0%b
5 3.6%b 5.9%b
6 7.6%b 12.8%b
7 5.0%b 11.2%b
8 4.0%b 6.9%b
9 6.8%b 11.8%b
Akpinar [19] 1 – – 10.0b – 32.0%b Mixture Weibull 1 m/s
2 5.8%b 11.5%b distribution
3 32.0%b 34.0%b
4 13.0%b 26.5%b
Akdag [20] 1 – – 6.8%b – 11.0%b Weibull distribution 1 m/s
2 21.0%b 12.0%b
3 10.0%b 24.2%b
4 4.0%b 9.8%b
Freitas de Andrade [21] 1 – 6.0%b – 7.2%b – Weibull distribution 1 m/s
2 0.4%b 0.8%b
Chang [22] 1 – 2.8%b – 4.1%a – Gamma-Weibull function 1 m/s
2 1.2%b 3.9%a
3 3.8%b 6.7%a
Rocha [23] 1 – 0.0%b – 0.0%b – Weibull distribution 1 m/s
2 0.0%b 0.0%b
3 0.0%b 0.5%b
4 0.5%b 0.8%b
5 1.0%b 2.5%b
6 1.5%b 1.9%b
Carta [24] 1 – 1.2%b – 6.4%b – Weibull 1 m/s
2 3.0%b 5.9%b
3 5.1%b 9.3%b
4 3.0%b 3.6%b
Arslan [25] 0 – – – – – Weibull 1 m/s
Ahmad [26] 0 – – – – – Three param. Weibull –
Cousineau [27] 0 – – – – – Three param. Weibull –
Carneiro [28] 1 – – 1.5%b – 2.6%b Weibull 1 m/s
2 0.5%b 1.3%b
3 0.2%b 0.9%b
Ouada [29] 1 – 22.5%b – 20.5%b – Mixture distribution 0.5 m/s
2 3.2%b 5.6%b
3 8.0%b 11.8b
4 3.5%b 5.0%b
5 4.5%b 7.0%b
6 12.0%b 19.0%b
7 9.0%b 9.3%b
Shin [30] 1 – 11.2%b – 11.5%b – Mixture distributions 0.5 m/s
2 4.6%b 6.0%b
(continued on next page)

6
P. Wais Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (xxxx) xxxx–xxxx

Table 1 (continued)

Author Station Wind speed frequency for different wind velocities or bins (data from literature) Probability density Wind speed
number function interval
0 m/s 0–1 m/s 1 m/s 1–2 m/s 2 m/s

3 2.1%b 5.0%b
4 3.0%b 6.4%b
5 3.0%b 14.5%b
6 2.0%b 5.3%b
7 5.0%b 8.4%b
Pishgar-Komleh [31] 1 – – 3.1%b – 7.1%a Weibull 1 m/s
Altunkaynak [32] 1 1.9% Weibull 2 m/s
2 2.0%
3 3.1%
Yaniktepe [33] 1 29.0%b,a,a,ab 31.0%b Weibull 1 m/s

a
For range 0-2 m/s.
b
Data from histogram.

better results.
5. Results and discussion – a comparison of two and three-
parameter Weibull probability
The literature review is summarized in Table 1, in which the wind
speed frequency for 0–2 m/s range, the probability distribution func-
tion recommended by authors and the wind speed intervals are
presented.
There is not direct comparison between two and three-parameter
Weibull probability function in analyzed literature. More, there are not
presented the frequencies for null wind. The most popular method is to
present in histogram the frequency for the ranges of speed interval
1 m/s.
To investigate the difference in energy production applying both
Weibull methods, additional calculations are done for a chosen set of
data. The data are obtained from a weather stations located in north-
east part of Poland [34]. To estimate the turbine productivity, it is
necessary to know wind velocity and the number of hours in the year,
for which the wind blows at velocity v . The set of data is separated into
the wind speed intervals. The size of wind speed interval is 1 m/s and is
the same as applied in reviewed papers. The direction and the yearly
time in hours, in which the wind blows with the given velocity are
presented in Table 2. The values are calculated from the available wind
measurements in a period of 30 years (1971–2000).
The time given in Table 2 can be easily converted into frequency
distribution format. The total number of hours in a year, t YEAR , is 8760,
and the fraction of the time at which wind speed is at v (for each bin of
the wind speed) is show in Table 3.
Using the wind data, the wind speed vi and its frequency, Eqs. (4)
and (5) enable to calculate the available wind energy and wind power
directly from the measurements. That station is selected due to the fact
that the value of null wind speed frequency is significant (about 9%) to
check whether or not the three-parameter Weibull distribution can give
more appropriate results. The frequency of the 0–2 m/s wind speed
range is 40%, similar to papers [12,19,20,29,33].
Considering the literature, the least square method is one of the
most common technique to calculate the parameters in a Weibull
formula for a wind resource assessment. Therefore, the Weibull
parameters are computed using the least square method in the paper.
At least square method, the sum of the squares due to error SSE (sum
of residual squared) is given by:
n
SSE = ∑ [ p (v i) − f (v i)] 2 → min
i =1 (16)
In Eq. (16), v i is the wind speed, p (v i) is the probability of the wind
speed received from the measurements, f (v i) is an estimated value of
the probability for the wind speed v i .
Table Curve 2D computer program is used in order to evaluate the
parameters of the Weibull probability distribution function, looking for
the numerical values of those parameters, for which the sum of the
squares of the deviations between the measured values and those
obtained from the density function is minimised [34]. Calculated

Table 2
Wind direction and wind velocity.

Wind direction

Wind speed Calm N NNE NEE E SEE SSE S SSW SWW W NWW NNW
m/s h h h h h h h h h h h h h

0 746 13 5 2 1 2 2 0 5 11 14 8 5
1 0 84 130 150 118 75 74 44 78 105 92 79 97
2 0 90 146 160 119 136 140 122 144 151 156 142 84
3 0 73 111 102 109 88 99 113 166 233 162 151 124
4 0 63 65 57 69 94 128 85 134 165 160 135 87
5 0 38 47 23 40 45 129 87 80 102 190 131 69
6 0 18 15 13 24 30 46 27 50 104 117 125 69
7 0 10 6 9 7 16 40 22 33 63 111 73 42
8 0 5 1 0 1 10 25 22 16 44 56 59 23
9 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 12 20 21 36 27 19
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
above 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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P. Wais Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (xxxx) xxxx–xxxx

Table 3
The wind velocity occurrence.

Velocity, vi, m/s 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Hour in a year, h 814 1126 1590 1531 1242 981 638 432 262
Percentage of total time, p(vi) 0.09292 0.12854 0.18151 0.17477 0.14178 0.11199 0.07283 0.04932 0.02991

Velocity, vi, m/s 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 above 15

Hour in a year, h 144 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Percentage of total time, p(vi) 0.01644 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000

Table 4
Weibull parameters calculated by means of least square method.

k A u

2 parameter Weibull distribution 1.6545771 4.1953066 –

3 parameter Weibull distribution 2.0974232 5.1039554 −1.269217

Weibull parameters are shown in Table 4.

The coefficient of determination r 2 , and the fit standard error S E
are considered to check the correctness of parameter calculations and
are presented in Table 5.
It can be noticed, from Table 5, that the three-parameter Weibull
distribution provides a better fit comparing to two-parameter Weibull
distribution.
The model accuracy is not evaluated only on the coefficient of
determination and the fit standard error parameters. The suitability of
Fig. 1. Measurement data (points) and Weibull probability density curves.
the two and three parameter Weibull distribution is also judged from
the calculated energy production. Comparisons are carried out between
Table 6
each available wind energy obtained from the distribution and the wind Available wind power and energy.
energy gathered from the data analysis for the selected location [34].
The frequency of wind velocity measurements and Weibull prob- PAVAIL_M, kW 429.639 EAVAIL_M, kWh 3,763,638
ability density curves are given in Fig. 1.
PAVAIL_2P, kW 602.151 EAVAIL_2P, kWh 5,274,843
Looking at Fig. 1, it can be seen that the significant discrepancy
PAVAIL_3P, kW 437.681 EAVAIL_3P, kWh 3,834,086
appears between two distributions, caused by high value of null wind
frequency.
To calculate the available wind energy, it is necessary to take some Table 7
kg
assumptions and to know the air density ( ρ = 1.225 3 ) and the rotor Relative error of energy calculations.
m
diameter (D = 100 m ). For measurement data, the power (PM) can be
Measurement 0.00%
computed by adding up the energy corresponding to all possible wind
speeds. For Weibull distributions, all the computation procedures are 2 p Weibull distr 40.15%
implemented in Matlab software package, in which Eqs. (9), (10), (14) 3 p Weibull distr 1.87%
and (15) are computed. Available wind power and wind energy are
expressed in Table 6.
The results in Table 6 show that the annual available wind energy, meter Weibull distribution, has several desirable properties with the
especially evaluated by means of two-parameter Weibull distribution, insignificant percentages of low wind speeds, at which gives correct
can be overestimated relating to the results received from measure- outcomes.
ments (P AVAIL M and E AVAIL M ). The difference between the energy
obtained from the data and the energy gained from Weibull distribu-
6. Conclusions
tions in relation to value E AVAIL M calculated from the wind velocity
measurements is presented in Table 7.
In the paper, the review is performed on the application of two and
It can be observed that the three-parameter Weibull distribution
three-parameter Weibull distribution in wind energy analyses focusing
gives better results of energy calculation when the frequency of the null
on the applied probability density function and the frequency of lower
wind is higher. For this reason, according to the results of the current
values of wind speed. Analysing the literature, the two-parameter
study, it might be concluded that the suitability of the method may vary
Weibull distribution is recognized as an appropriate model and the
with the sample data distribution, and especially the null wind
most widely used in the wind industry sector, although it cannot give
occurrence. The proposed method of calculation, using three-para-
proper results is some cases. All cited papers confirm that the wind
speed can be represented by vast number of probability density
functions. A large number of studies are published that propose the
Table 5
Coefficient of determination and fit standard error. use different functions to describe wind speed frequency distributions.
Many authors recommend various methods to calculate the unknown
r2 SE distribution parameters of the Weibull distribution for identified and
recorded measurements or recommend other methods to fit the data,
2 parameter Weibull distribution 0.8532976 0.024714
3 parameter Weibull distribution 0.9913127 0.0059987 but still these techniques are applied for specific conditions. There is
quite difficult to find papers that can indicate or give a general advise

8
P. Wais
which distribution should be used when the frequency of null wind
velocity is high (or for higher percentages of the wind speed below 2 m/
s). In theory, it seems that the three-parameter Weibull distribution,
which takes into account the frequency of null winds, may also better
represent the wind distribution, but there are only few direct compar-
ison with two-parameter Weibull distribution in literature. The three-
parameter Weibull distribution is applied rarely in the wind industry
sector. Lack of comparison to other models can cause that the three-
parameter Weibull distribution is underestimated.
Wind speed distribution determines the wind energy available and
the performance of an energy conversion system for a particular
location. Measuring the wind on the site is the most reliable method.
With a limited amount of wind data from a given site, the statistical
method can be used. It should be mentioned that statistically pre-
dictable values also require long-term measurements. In the current
work, two diverse Weibull distributions are presented to estimate the
theoretical, available wind power. A three-parameter Weibull distribu-
tion is proposed for wind energy calculation as an alternative for two-
parameter Weibull distribution. Suitable examples, based on the real
data set, is provided to examine the properties of two different Weibull
distributions and show that, in some circumstances, the three-para-
meter Weibull distribution is a useful tool for wind energy estimation.
Two appropriate probability density functions are studied, compared
and correlated to the wind measurements.
The results, received from distribution analyses, are compared to
energy outcome gathered from a real data set. The paper presents that
the two-parameter Weibull distribution is not always sufficient to
specify the wind speed distribution and to evaluate the available wind
power. In addition, it is observed that the three-parameter Weibull
distribution can offer the advantage for some wind data analyses and
fits certain data better than the typical Weibull distribution, especially
for the wind with a significant percentage of null wind speed or a higher
fraction of lower speed winds. The investigation shows that the third
parameter in the Weibull distribution, the location parameter, can help
to take the right decision and select the site for the wind turbine plant.
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