PROBABILITY PROJECT

WITH AND WITH O UT REP LACEM ENT – 3 CO LO RED STARS / 3 DRAWING S

THE PROBLEM:
THREE STUDENTS WERE GIVEN A BAG OF 9 STARS, THE BAG CONTAINED 3
COLORS ALL SAME SIZE AND SHAPE. THERE WERE 3 RED, 3 BLUE AND 3
GREEN. IF THE STUDENTS WERE TO REACH IN AND GRAB ONE STAR AT A
TIME, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY FOR THEM TO GET ONE OF EACH
COLOR?

PART ONE: WITH REPLACEMENTS

FIRST LET’S START WITH THE FORMULA THAT WILL BE USED TO HELP
SOLVE THE QUESTION:

THE FORMULA:
P(E)=Number of Possible combinations / Number of Sample size

The sample size

also tells us
Sample size (denominator) what our total
amount of stars
R+ R + R = 3 Red in the bag!
B+ B + B = 3 Blue
G+ G + G = 3 Green
9 colored Stars

P(e) 3 colors
P= P(s) = 9 total stars
= 13

Per dr
 a w
r
SO, LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT WE DO KNOW:
Draw #3

D 12
Here we have all the Red star

w
possibilities that can

#
Red star Blue star
happen when we
grab a star from the

1
Green Star
bag and replace it

Dr a
back.

3
Red star

1 1

#1
Red Stars Blue star Blue star

31 Green Star

31
Red star

3 Green star Blue star

3
Green Star

1 13
Red star
Red star Blue star

Green Star

3 1 3
Red star
Bag of Stars

1
Blue Stars

1
Blue star
1 Blue star

3
Green Star

1 31
Red star

3 3 Green star Blue star

3
Green Star

Red star

1 Red star
13 Blue star
Green Star

1 31
Red star

3 Green Stars

1
Blue Star Blue star
Green Star

31 Red star

3 Green star
31 Blue star
Green Star

3 3
 THE PROBIBILITIES FOR EACH COMBONATIONS

9 STARS
3 COLORS/3 DRAWS PROBABILITIES
STARTING W/ THE RED STAR
DRA DRAW DRAW FRACTION DECIMAL % OF
W #1 #2 #3 FORM FORM PROBABILITY
RRR * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
1/3 * 1/3

RRB * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3

RRG * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3
* 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
RBR 1/3 * 1/3

RBB * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3

RBG 1/3 * 1/3

* 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

RGR * 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3

RGB 1/3 * 1/3

* 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

* 1/3 = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

RGG 1/3 * 1/3
STARTING W/ THE BLUE STAR
BRR * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
1/3 * 1/3 1/3
* = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
BRB 1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BRG 1/3 * 1/3

*
1/3
= 1/27 0.037 3.70%

BBR * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BBB * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BBG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BGR 1/3 * 1/3

*
1/3
= 1/27 0.037 3.70%

BGB * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

BGG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3
STARTING W/ THE GREEN STAR
 GRR * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%
1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GRB 1/3 * 1/3

*
1/3
= 1/27 0.037 3.70%

GRG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GBR 1/3 * 1/3

*
1/3
= 1/27 0.037 3.70%

GBB * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GBG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GGR * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GGB * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3

GGG * = 1/27 0.037 3.70%

1/3 * 1/3 1/3
27/27 0.999 99.90%

let’s review what the question is asking:

If the students were to reach in and grab one Star at a time, what is
the probability for them to get one of each color?

If we look back at the chart,

There are 2 chances to draw 3 stars, one of each color, in the 3 color group.
Since there are 1 in 3 chance to pull the correct color and we draw 3 times
There is a 6/27 chance to pull a star of each color.

2+2+2
3x3x3
= =
 PART TWO: WITHOUT REPLACEMENTS
FIRST LET’S START WITH THE FORMULA THAT WILL BE
USED TO HELP SOLVE THE QUESTION:

Here we have the same scenario:

THREE STUDENTS WERE GIVEN A BAG OF 9 STARS, THE BAG CONTAINED 3
COLORS ALL SAME SIZE AND SHAPE. THERE WERE 3 RED, 3 BLUE AND 3
GREEN. IF THE STUDENTS WERE TO REACH IN AND GRAB ONE STAR AT A
TIME, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY FOR THEM TO GET ONE OF EACH
COLOR?
We now know the probability of drawing one of each color IF we place the star back into the
bag. BUT, what is the likelihood of withdrawing a star of each color IF the star is NOT replaced
after each draw?

Sample size (denominator)

Draw 1 Draw 2 Draw 3
+ +
+ +
+ +
= 9 starting = 8 left = 7 stars remain

P(e)
9x8x7
 Here we have all
the possibilities that

r a w Draw #3

D
can happen when

w
we grab a star from Red star

2
1
the bag and DONT
Red star Blue star
replace it.

#
Green Star
3
2
Dr a
Red star 73

#1
277
3
Red Stars Blue star Blue star

2
83
Green Star

Red star 37
72
8Green star Blue star

73
8
Green Star

Red star 72
72
3
Red star Blue star

3 Green Star
27
Red star 37
73
Bag of Stars

93
Blue Stars

28Blue star Blue star

Green Star 71
37
9 3
8Green star
Red star
Blue star 73
72
3
Green Star

27
8 Red star
Red star
Blue star
277
3
9 3
Green Star

Red star 72
73
3
Green Stars Blue Star Blue star

72
8
Green Star

72
2
Red star

377
8
Green star Blue star
Green Star
3
71
8 7
7
 THE PROBIBILITIES FOR EACH COMBONATIONS

Here is another the tree diagram and what it looks like when written out. Notice how the sample
size (the denominator) changes as each star is removed. As the amount in the bag lessons so does
the probability of getting the same color!
Questions to think about while looking at the results:
• Do you notice any patterns?
• Can you predict the outcome of the next set?

9 STARS
3 COLORS/3 DRAWS
without replacement PROBABILITIES
STARTING W/ THE RED STAR

DRAW DRAW FRACTION DECIMAL % OF

DRAW #1 #2 #3 FORM FORM PROBABILITY
= 6/504 0.0119 1.20%
RRR 3/9 * 2/8 * 1/7
RRB 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RRG 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RBR 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RBB 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RBG 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
RGR 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
RGB 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
RGG 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
STARTING W/ THE BLUE STAR
BRR 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BRB 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BRG 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
BBR 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BBB 3/9 * 2/8 * 1/7 = 6/504 0.0119 1.20%
BBG 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BGR 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
BGB 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
BGG 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 100.8%
 STARTING W/ THE GREEN STAR
GRR 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%

GRB 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%

GRG 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GBR 3/9 * 3/8 * 3/7 = 27/504 0.0535 5.40%
GBB 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GBG 3/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GGR 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GGB 3/9 * 2/8 * 3/7 = 18/504 0.0357 3.60%
GGG 3/9 * 2/8 * 1/7 = 6/504 0.0119 1.20%
504/504 0.9993 100.8%

let’s review what the question is asking:

If the students were to reach in and grab one Star at a time, what is
the probability for them to get one of each color?

If we look back at the chart,

There are 2 chances to draw 3 stars, one of each color, in the 3 color groupings.
Since there are 1 in 3 chance to pull the correct color on the first draw and if we
don’t replace the star, we know now, instead of 9 stars we have 8. The third draw
there is 7 only stars left of the 9.

32.1% 27+27+27+27+27
Likely to get 3 stars in one star of
Each color without replacement

9x8x7