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Abstract
1. INTRODUTION
The impact of climate change is not uniformly borne by different regions and
populations. In reality, individuals, sectors and systems are affected to varying degrees, and may
be prejudiced (or benefited) to a greater or lesser extent. These impacts vary in magnitude and
intensity in accordance with the geographical location, time, the prevalent social, economic and
environmental conditions and the infra-structure of a given location (Freitas & Soito, 2008).
Many sectors, regions and communities have adapted reasonably well to the median
effects of climate change, particularly if such effects have emerged gradually. This right to life,
liberty and security of person is seriously undermined, in the more vulnerable populations, by a
predatory development model that demands aggressive intervention in the environment and
significant changes to natural cycles, particularly hydrological patterns.
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In Brazil, hydrological availability in the Rio Acre Basin, the object of this study,
presents significant climatic variability, in addition to being seriously affected by anthropic
activities on the river and its surroundings, leading to an urgent need for mechanisms that
enable the riverbank populations to adapt and mitigate the damage to ecosystems and the chain
of production.
The IPCC study of global climate change is a further factor to be considered in the debate
regarding the negative impact of the climate variability in the Rio Acre Basin. Its findings, the
result of pioneering research in Brazil, indicate that the Amazon region (which includes the Rio
Acre basin) is one of the country’s most vulnerable regions in terms of the effects of climate
change.
It is clear that the Amazon region will present significant challenges in the near future.
This is particularly true of its extensive hydrographic basins, which have a total area of
approximately 5 million km2, and a hydroelectric potential of 93.916 MW. The Brazilian
electrical system is highly dependent on the region’s hydric availability, 80% of the Brazilian
electricity matrix is hydraulic (BEN, 2008).
It is therefore clear that the basin is highly relevant to the economic growth and
development of the state. In terms of climate, the major drought of 2005 and the 2009 flood are
examples of the problems arising out fluvial dynamics. During the drought, the river was
reduced to a trickle, which led to the emergency installation of floating pumps. The lack of
planning control over the occupation of flood plains led to widespread damage and loss of life
in the 2009 floods.
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Na caracterização da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica, em geral, se trabalha uma
abordagem qualitativa a partir da Geografia Humanista e Cultural, de filiação
fenomenológica, como arcabouço teórico-metodológico no estudo da vulnerabilidade
(ENTRIKIN, 1980; HOLZER,1996; BONNEMAISON, 2005), o que coloca a
experiência dos fenômenos como foco principal, encarando a experiência espacial como
a principal mediação do indivíduo com o ambiente (TUAN, 1983). Neste caso, o
ambiente é entendido de forma ampla, incluindo o mundo de significados onde a pessoa
está inserida, desde as esferas mais imediatas (família, grupo, bairro, cidade) até as mais
distantes (país, etnia, mundo). Este perspectiva que busca interligar as esferas sociais a
partir da experiência, permite abordar as questões por uma ótica diferente que não
privilegia diretamente nem o ambiente nem a sociedade, mas a relação entre ambos.
Esse parece ser, atualmente, um dos grandes desafios postos aos estudos de população e
ambiente (LUTZ; PRSKAWETZ; SANDERSON, 2002).
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A vulnerabilidade também é conceituada, por alguns autores da área de
demografia como um conjunto de características sociodemográficas de domicílios ou
indivíduos que limitam a acumulação de recursos. Segundo Vignoli (2000), esta
associação de características desfavoráveis possui relação com outras manifestações de
desvantagem social e podem ser captadas por levantamentos censitários.
A partir do final dos anos de 1990 alguns autores começaram a destacar o papel da
vulnerabilidade como geradora de desvantagem social (Moser, C., 1998). Segundo essa
linha teórica que começou a tomar corpo, a noção de vulnerabilidade permitiria
aproximações mais dinâmicas, por meio das quais seria factível antecipar riscos de
danos materiais ou humanos, assim como, numa perspectiva inversa, potencialidades de
reforço ou adaptação. Esta abordagem seria válida tanto para indivíduos como para
grupos pequenos, comunidades, segmentos sociais e até mesmo para a unidade nacional
como um todo. De toda a forma, o debate sobre a vulnerabilidade e sua relevância
ganhou evidência e, segundo Pizarro (2001), por se tratar de um conceito complexo e
ainda relativamente novo, apresenta várias interpretações que nem sempre são coerentes
entre si.
This article proposes an integrated approach of vulnerability for the Rio Acre
Hydrographic Basin, which may be used as a basis for the formulation and implementation of
public policy. The authors address climate variability and global warming, in particular hydric,
social and economic vulnerability. Emphasis is placed on the interface with poverty, the
isolation of population groups, natural obstacles, population density, river infrastructure and
public governance.
The study is, therefore, a diagnosis of the vulnerability of the basin, assessing various
aspects of a conceptual model in which social, economic, institutional and climatic vulnerability
are superimposed, so as to provide a synthesis, set out in the form of a map of critical points in
the basin.
The object of this study is the Rio Acre basin, located in Southwestern Amazonia, on the
frontier between Brazil, Bolivia and Peru, covering the Peruvian state (department) of Madre de
Dios, the Brazilian state of Acre and the Bolivian state (department) of Pando (Figure 01).
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Figure 01 – Location of the Area Studied (the Acre Basin)
O rio Acre nasce numa altitude ao redor de 300 m. No seu trecho mais a montante
estabelece a fronteira Brasil e Peru e d a c i d a d e d e A s s i s B r a s i l a t é Brasiléia como
fr ont ei r a entre Brasil e Bolívia. A partir daí, adentra em território brasileiro. Percorre mais
de 1.190 km desde as nascentes até a sua desembocadura, na margem direita do rio Purus, no
estado do Amazonas.
As principais cidades instaladas à beira do rio são: Cojiba, Brasiléia, Xapuri, Rio
Branco, Porto Acre e Boca do Acre.
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Em termos populacionais, the region was inhabited by various indigenous peoples before
being ‘recognized’ by Brazilians and Europeans in the 19th century. According to Saavedra
Perez (2001), the Acre River was discovered by a citizen of the State of Ceará in 1860. Five
years later, the Royal Geographical Society in London commissioned a geographer, William
Chandless, to explore its entire course. The indigenous toponimy accurately reflected the
characteristics of the waters of the Rio Acre, principally the high river, which was known as
Magarinarran, due to the high velocity of the water. It was also known as Aquiri – river of
arrows and Enosagua which means yellow river, probably due to the high turbulence of the
water (Perez, 2001).
The inhabitation of the State of Acre can be divided into two main waves of migration.
The first (1920 – 1960 approximately) brought in people from the northeast of the country to
work in rubber (latex) extraction. This first wave of immigration is considered to have had
relatively little impact due the low population density and the refusal by landowners to allow
recent migrants to work in activities such as agriculture or cattle ranching. The second
migratory wave started in the early 1970’s and involved mainly people from the south and
southeast of the country who were attracted first by incentives for ranching activities and then
by the settlement projects that offered free land. The migrants of this second wave settled
mainly in the extreme east of the state near by the Federal Highway known as BR 364 (Lorena,
2008)
This second migratory wave was considered a high impact process, due to the adoption of
inadequate production systems in relation to local agro-ecologic characteristics and also to the
low technological level of land use, characterized by slash-and-burn and adoption of extensive
cattle ranching. The main consequences of this second wave of migration have been the high
rate of deforestation and progressive loss of soil fertility (Lorena, 2008, op.cit.).
This in turn led to a later trend towards abandonment of pasture and the consequent
increase in the number and scale of abandoned areas, observed in several Amazon regions.
Unfortunately, land use in these settlements is still dependent on slash-and-burn of the primary
and secondary forests, followed by the plantation of annual subsistence crops for 2 or 3 years,
followed by the implantation of pastures. Forest clearing is often followed directly by pastures
(Rocha, 2000).
Study of the soil and relief of the Rio Acre basin, either in urban or in rural areas reveals a
complex environmental character, expressed in the interactions between the natural physical and
socio-economic environments.
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In terms of the interaction between the natural and socioeconomic environments in the
region, it can be seen that the income, housing, health, education and housing problems of the
population who live in the floodable and polluted sub-micro basins are closely linked to
geomorphologic dynamics, which are very common and visible and to landslides and silting up
of the river banks in line with variations in the fluvial regime of floods and low water.
In economic terms, the central nucleus of the development of the State of Rio Acre is the
basin of the Acre River. The towns and villages of the basin account for, respectively, 64.76%
of the gross domestic product (GDP) and 57% of the state population. Furthermore, the basin is
the sole source of potable water for the population and for economic activities.
It can be seen from the above that the basin of the Rio Acre plays a very significant role in
the economic growth and development of the state.
A análise morfodinâmica das unidades de paisagem natural pode ser feita a partir dos
princípios da ecodinâmica (TRICART, 1977), que estabelecem diferentes categorias
morfodinâmicas resultantes dos processos de morfogênese ou pedogênese. Quando predomina a
morfogênese prevalecem os processos erosivos, modificadores das formas de relevo, e quando
predomina a pedogênese prevalecem os processos formadores de solos.
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Os eventos extremos da seca de 2005 e das enchentes de 2009 são bastante
ilustrativos de como a variabilidade hidrológica e a variabilidade climática, afetam de forma
profunda a sociedade local e regional, assim como tem implicações importantes sobre a
floresta e a biodiversidade da área.
O extremo oposto à seca de 2005, o ano de 2009 marcou a presença de cheia em boa
parte da grande bacia amazônica, incluindo a bacia do rio Acre. Nesta bacia, o mês abril
assinalou as maiores cotas do ano em questão, superando os 15 metros.
The existing literature states that there is a direct relationship between exposure to
environmental risks and precariousness of access to public services. The lack of urban
infrastructure per se (water, sanitation, garbage collection, channeling of watercourses etc.)
exposes the populations which are resident in these areas to environmental risks, such as water-
borne diseases. There is a clear pattern of low income groups residing in areas where poor urban
conditions prevail, and which are subject to environmental risk and degradation.
Academic research institutions and urban and territorial planning agencies have used the
concept of social vulnerability to define priority areas for social projects and programs in Brazil
and Latin America.
According to Alves (op.cit.) this concept of vulnerability has had a strong influence on
international organizations such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the BIRD. The
traditional approaches to poverty and its assessment, based exclusively on income level and
applying fixed measurements such as the poverty line, are inadequate, in that they do not
address issues related to social/environmental insecurity and exposure to risks and upheavals
brought about by economic events or changes. Assessing social vulnerability leads to a broader
view of the living conditions of poorer social groups, taking into account,, at the same time the
availability of resources and strategies with which the social groups might confront the
social/environmental impacts that afflict them. (CEPAL, 2002 in Alves, op.cit.).
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The notion of vulnerability has also, in recent years become a focal point for the scientific
community working with environmental change and sustainability (IHDP, IGBP, IPCC1) and,
as stated earlier, is an important analytical category for international institutions. One issue
which is frequently raised, for example, is that of vulnerability in relation to hydric resources,
which may lead to:
• risks posed to population groups forced to reside in areas exposed to high levels
of hydric pollution;
• an estimated 20% of the world’s population does not have regular access to
clean drinking water, and 50% lacks adequate sanitation;
In the field of sociology (MOSER, 1998; KAZTMAN et al., 1999), social vulnerability is
analyzed in terms of individuals, families or social groups. Field research into the living
conditions of riverbank population groups in the Rio Acre Basin provided essential information
gathered in loco and which was then available for analysis with other existing data.
Situations of vulnerability in the Rio Acre Basin involve climatic and ecological factors
as well as social and economic aspects, several of which arise within a context of lack of access
to water and sanitation.
The mapping and analysis of situations the Rio Acre basin in which sanitation
infrastructure is precarious, as are working conditions and income levels, serve as a proxy for
situations of vulnerability of populations which are subject to unfavorable living conditions and
which, upon the occurrence of extreme climate events, are exposed to greater suffering.
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Tabela 1 – Descrição dos indicadores usados para o mapeamento e análise da
vulnerabilidade social e econômica da Bacia do Rio Acre
Renda Rendimento nominal mensal médio dos Setores Urbanos Denominador: Número de
responsáveis por domicílios e Municípios responsáveis por domicílios
particulares permanentes por setor
censitário e por município
Fonte: Elaboração própria Equipe IVIG, adaptado do Censo Demográfico do IBGE, 2000.
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usual para identificação dos pontos de quebra na distribuição dos valores de uma variável,
visando criar classes que contenham grupos de valores que possibilitem a visualização dos
padrões nos dados. Este método ajusta os limites das classes de acordo com a distribuição dos
dados, identificando pontos de quebra entre as classes utilizando a fórmula estatística que se
baseia na variabilidade dos dados (otimização de Jenk), que minimiza a soma da variância
dentro de cada uma das classes. Este método encontra agrupamentos e padrões inerentes aos
dados
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4.1 - Questões Relacionadas a Ìndice de Vulnerabilidade e a Avaliação de Risco
O índice de vulnerabilidade proposto compõe um dos principais passos para mapeamento de risco e que vai nortear as demais etapas do processo de
gestão. A avaliação de risco, conforme a Figura 3, envolve basicamente o inventário dos perigos naturais (P), o estudo da vulnerabilidade (V) e o mapeamento
das áreas de risco (R). Sobre o estudo da vulnerabilidade, as dimensões geofísica e humana serão integradas a partir da determinação dos pesos de cada tema
considerado relevante para identificação das diferentes classes de vulnerabilidade.
Figura 3 – Parâmetros que envolvem uma análise de risco com destaque para o estudo de vulnerabilidade (MARCELINO, 2008).
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4.2 - Proposta de Indicadores e do Índice de Vulnerabilidade Integrada para a Bacia do
Rio Acre
15
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A incorporação de novos parâmetros ao mapa de fragilidade natural elaborado em
período anterior do processo de planejamento territorial estadual durante o Zoneamento
Ecológico Econômico Estadual para o Estado do Acre veio a acrescentar novas perspectivas de
análise integrada ao planejamento e ordenamento territorial na Bacia do Rio Acre. Ao se
determinarem novos recortes, calcado nas bacias hidrográficas e ao se incorporarem variáveis
socioeconômicas e meteorológicas na avaliação integrada da vulnerabilidade, obtém-se um
aprimoramento metodológico importante que se constitui no grande diferencial no tipo de
avaliação.
Todos esses parâmetros (geofísicos e humanos) podem ser cruzados facilmente em
ambiente SIG (Sistema de Informação Geográfica). Conforme mencionado, esta integração
utilizou como base a ponderação dos temas e cálculo de matrizes para obtenção do mapa de
vulnerabilidade final. Cada parâmetro é formado por um conjunto de dados de fontes diversas
(mapas, medições em campo, imagens de satélites, questionários, etc.), que permitem identificar
as características do ambiente e o contexto socioeconômico em que podem ocorrer os desastres.
5. CONSIDERATIONS
The aim of the research is to propose a model for the management of the Basin of the
Acre River which is wider ranging politically, socially integrated and ecologically sustainable
and that will in fact be taken into consideration in the planning of the use of the territory. In
order for this model to function, it is essential that a system of geo-referenced information be set
up and correctly used. This system must be easy for the state authorities responsible for the use
of the land and hydric resources to update, access and control.
The project will contribute to the drawing up of measures involving the participation of
local people in the definition of priorities for water use, as a means of inclusion and
involvement of user groups at various stages of the planning of use of hydric resources in the
hydrographic basin. This will be implemented via a program aimed at empowering the local
and regional human and institutional potential as a form of guarantee of the correct and
adequate use of local natural resources, the social formation of the population, the maintenance
of the local biodiversity and local communities, thus preserving the sovereignty of the region.
We are of the view that the development of empirical studies of the issue of socio-
environmental vulnerability to climate change should be an important part of the research
agenda on the theme of global environmental changes, particularly in the Brazilian academic
and scientific fields, notably social sciences.
Another highly relevant and fertile field of study related to climate change that merits
the attention of social scientists in Brazil is the question of the institutional dimensions of global
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environmental change, in that a major part of the capacity to respond to environmental change
comes from institutional mechanisms.
The results of the cross-referencing carried out to date reveal that there is a significant
cluster of areas in the basin of the Acre River where extreme events, principally floods, occur in
more densely urbanized regions. This further aggravates the social vulnerability, principally in
the poorer areas.
In the context of a Brazilian agenda of studies of situations of socio-environmental
vulnerability to climate change, one contribution of this study is to provide visibility to the areas
of the Basin of the Acre River which concentrate greater levels of exposure and susceptibility to
environmental risks, arising out of or intensified by climate change. Such risks include floods,
landslides and the proliferation of contagious diseases, which are caused by extreme events or
changes in the patterns of atmospheric precipitation. These regions may be considered to be
subject to a high degree of socio-environmental vulnerability to climate change, and should be a
priority target for social and environmental public policy in the search for forms of mitigation
and adaptation.
6. REFERENCES
BROWN, Irving Foster, Silvia H. C. Brilhante, Elsa Mendoza e Ivanir Ribeiro de Oliveira
Estrada de Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil aos Portos do Pacífico: Como maximizar os benefícios e
minimizar os prejuízos para o desenvolvimento sustentável da Amazônia Sul-Ocidental.
Encuentro Internacional de Intergracion Regional - Bolívia, Brasil y Peru. Arequipa, Peru, 2 a 4
de setembro de 2001 Editora CEPEI (Centro Peruano de Estudios Internacionales),Lima 2002
IBGE, 2002. Pesquisa Nacional de Saneamento Básico – PNSB 2000. Instituto Brasileiro de
Geografia e Estatística – IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
IBGE, 2008. Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio - PNAD 2008. Instituto
Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística – IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
MOSER, C. The asset vulnerability framework: reassessing urban poverty reduction strategies.
World Development, v.26, n.1, 1998.
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