Professional Documents
Culture Documents
METHODS
&
STATISTICS
MTH 2212
LECTURER
DR ZAHARAH WAHID
EXT 4514, ROOM E1-4-8-13
COURSE EVALUATION & ASSESSMENT
Assignments 5%
3
Population & Sample
• POPULATION : The set of all
measurements of interest to the
experimenter
• SAMPLE: A subset/portion of
measurements selected from the
population of interest for analysis.
4
Examples
5
SYMBOL
Mean ×
Variance S2 2
Standard
Deviation S
6
Type of Statistics
• DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS:
Procedures used to summarize and
describe the set of measurements.
• INFERENTIAL STATISTICS:
Procedures used to draw conclusions or
inferences about the population from
information contained in the sample
7
Types of data
Variable (Quantitative)
Measurable characteristic
e.g: height, length, thickness
Attribute (Qualitative)
Qualitative data (count)
e.g: yes/no, OK/NG, go/no go
8
Definition
Probability & Chance
An experiment is a situation involving chance or
probability that leads to results called outcomes.
(n r )!
where n! n(n 1)(n 2)...(2)(1) and 0! 1.
Example: How many 3-digit lock combinations
can we make from the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4?
The order of the choice is important! 4!
P 4(3)(2) 24
3
4
1!
16
Examples
Example: A lock consists of five parts and can
be assembled in any order. A quality control
engineer wants to test each order for
efficiency of assembly. How many orders are
there?
The order of the choice is important!
5!
P 5(4)(3)(2)(1) 120
5
5
0!
17
Permutation of n objects for given conditions
Last digit
21
Example
In general, If there are a total of n objects, out of
which p of them are the same object, q of another
object, r of another object and so on, then the total
𝑛!
number of arrangements is
𝑝!𝑞!𝑟!
(b) no repetitions
5 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 =72
25
SOLUTION
(c) number is odd and no repetitions the last
place can be filled in only 3ways(1,3,5), then
fill in the other places.
4 X 3 X 2 X 1 X 3 =72
5 x 5 x 5 x 5 x 2=1,250
26
Cont… m
m
27
Example
There are 5 women and 4 men in a club. A team of
four has to be chosen. How many different teams
can be chosen if there must be either exactly one
women or exactly two women on the team?
and= x or=+
A team must consist 4 people.
Suppose W denotes a women and M denotes a man
1W and 3M or 2W and 2M
Example
A,B,C,D,E and F are six nurses. How many different
ways can they be seated in a row if
(a) there are no restrictions on the seating
(b) A and B must sit beside each other
(c) A and B must not sit beside each other
(d)D, E, and F must sit beside each other
(e) A and F must sit at the end of each other
Solution
(a)No restrictions
number of arrangements= 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x1 =6!=720
31
Combinations
• The number of distinct combinations of n
distinct objects that can be formed, taking
them r at a time is n!
Cr
n
r!(n r )!
Example: Three members of a 5-person committee must
be chosen to form a subcommittee. How many different
subcommittees could be formed?
5! 5(4)(3)(2)1 5(4)
The order of
C
5
10
3!(5 3)! 3(2)(1)(2)1 (2)1
the choice is 3
not important!
32
Example1
Combination of r objects chosen from n
different objects for given conditions
33
Example 3
There are 10 pens in a box, 6 red and 4 green.
If 3 are picked out at random, what is the
probability of 1 red and 2 green?
34
Exercise
A bag contains 9 white and 6 black
balls. What is the probability of selecting
(i) 2 white balls
(ii) 3 white balls
(iii) 4 black balls
(iv) 1 white and 3 black balls
(v) 4 white and 5 black balls
Ans:5C2 x 4C1/, 9C3 4C3/9C3, (5C1 x 4C2 + 5C2 x 4C1 + 5C3)/9C3, 4C3 +
5C1 x 4C2 )/9C3, 5C3/9C3
36
m
Tree diagram m
Example 3
A box contains 24 transistors, 4 of which are
defectives. If 4 are sold at random, find the
following probabilities
I. Exactly 2 are defectives
II. None is defective
III. All are defectives
IV. At least one is defective
I. Exactly 2 are defectives
𝐶24 𝑋 𝐶220 1140
P( exactly 2 defectives) = =
𝐶424 10,626
2. None is defective
No. of ways to choose no defectives is 𝐶420
P( no defectives) = 𝐶420 /𝐶424 = 4845/10,626=1615/3542
We must have
0 p( x) 1 and p( x) 1
Probability Distributions
• Probability distributions can be used to describe
the population, just as we described samples in
handout 1.
– Shape: Symmetric, skewed, mound-shaped…
– Outliers: unusual or unlikely measurements
– Center and spread: mean and standard
deviation. A population mean is called and a
population standard deviation is called .
Example
• The probability distribution for x the
number of heads in tossing 3 fair
coins.
Symmetric; mound-
• Shape? shaped
• Outliers? None
• Center? = 1.5
• Spread? = .688
Key Concepts
V. Discrete Random Variables and Probability
Distributions
1. Random variables, discrete and continuous
2. Properties of probability distributions
0 p( x) 1 and p( x) 1
3. Mean or expected value of a discrete random
variable: Mean : xp( x)
4. Variance and standard deviation of a discrete
random variable: Variance : 2 ( x ) 2 p( x)
Standard deviation : 2
Example
• Toss a fair coin three times and
define x = number of heads.
x
HHH 1/8
3
x p(x)
P(x = 0x) = 1/8 0 1/8
HHT 1/8 2 P(x = 1) = 3/8 1 3/8
HTH 1/8 2
P(x = 2) = 3/8 2 3/8
THH P(x = 3) = 1/8
1/8 2 3 1/8
HTT
1/8 1
Probability Histogram
THT for x
1/8 1
TTH
1/8 1
TTT 0
1/8
The Mean
and Standard Deviation
• Let x be a discrete random variable with
probability distribution p(x). Then the mean or
expected value, variance and standard
deviation of x are given as
Mean : E ( x) xp ( x)
Variance : ( x ) p( x)
2 2
Standard deviation : 2
Example
• Toss a fair coin 3 times and
record x the number of heads.
x p(x) xp(x) (x-)2p(x) 12
0 1/8 0 (-1.5)2(1/8) xp ( x) 1.5
8
1 3/8 3/8 (-0.5)2(3/8)
2 3/8 6/8 (0.5)2(3/8)
3 1/8 3/8 (1.5)2(1/8)
( x ) p( x)
2 2
x 0 1 2 3
Given: P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
E (X) = 𝑥𝑃 𝑋=𝑥
1 3 3 1 12
=0 +1 +2 +3 = = 1.5
8 8 8 8 8
Cont,……
E (𝑋 2 ) = 𝑥 2 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)
2
1 2
3 2
3 2
1
= 0 +1 +2 +3 = 3
8 8 8 8
Var ( X ) E ( X 2 ) [ E ( X )]2
= 3 − (1.5)2
= 0.75
49
Probability Distributions Table
Find P( X > 1)
x 0 1 2 3
P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
P( X > 1) = P( X=2 or 3)
=P(X=2) + P(X=3)
= 3/8 + 1/8
= 4/8
= 1/2
The discrete random variable X has probability
X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(X= 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
x)
i) P( X< 4)
ii) P( 3< X 6
iii) E(X)
PDF and CDF DISCRETE
Cumulative density function –CDF
Definition
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑃( 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 )
Properties -CDF
1. 0 ≤ 𝐹 𝑥 ≤ 1 , -∞<𝑥 < ∞
2. 𝐹 −∞ = 0, 𝐹 ∞ = 1
3. if 𝑥1 < 𝑥2 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐹 𝑥1 ≤ 𝐹(𝑥2 )
4. 𝑃 𝑥1 < 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥2 = 𝐹 𝑥2 − 𝐹(𝑥1 )
Note
P( X > 𝑥1 ) = 𝑃 𝑥1 < 𝑋 < ∞ = 𝐹 ∞ − 𝐹 𝑥1
= 1− 𝐹(𝑥1 )
Example 1
𝑥 0 1 2
P( X = 𝑥 ) 1/4 2/4 1/4
F(𝑥 ) 1/4 3/4 1
Find , F( 2) = 1
Find, F(1) = ¾
P( 0 ) + P( 1)
Find, F( 1.7) = F ( 1)
Exercise
𝑥 3 5 6 8 9
P( X = 𝑥 ) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 a
F(𝑥 )
P( X > 𝑥1 ) = 1
Find
1. a,
2. F(9),
3. F( 6)
Example 2- how to find PDF
𝑥 4 7 9 11
F(𝑥 ) 0.3 0.4 0.9 1
P( X = 𝑥 ) 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1
Find , P( 𝑥 =7) ?
F( 7 ) - P( 4)
Find, P(𝑥 = 9)?
Find, F( 1.7) = F ( 1)