Binomial Probability Distribution

The binomial probability distribution is widely occurring discrete

probability distribution.
The characteristic of a binomial distribution is that there are only
two possible outcomes on a particular trial of an experiment and
the outcomes are mutually exclusive.
For Example, the product is classified as either acceptable or not
acceptable by the quality control department.
A worker is classified as employed or unemployed.
A sales call results in the customer either purchasing the product or
not purchasing the product.
“Success” and “failurre”

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Binomial Probability Distribution

Another characteristic of the binomial distribution is that the probability of

a success remains the same from one trial to another. Two examples are:

The probability you wil guess the first question of a true/false test
correctly is one half. This is first “trial.” The probability that you will
guess correctly on the second question (second trial) is also one half.
The probability of success on the third trial is also one half, and so on.

The final characteristic of a binomial probability distribution is that each

trial is independent of any other trial. The outcome of a particular trial
does not affect the outcome of any other trial.

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How Is a Binomial Probability Distribution
Computed?

To construct a particular binomial probability distribution, we use

(1) the number of trials

(2) the probability of success on each trial.

For example, if an examination consists of 25 multiple-choice questions,

the number of trials is 25. If each equestio has 5 choices and only 1 choice
is correct, the probability of success on each trial is 0.2.

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The binomial probability distribution is computed by the following formula:

P(x) =n Cx π x (1 − π)n−x (4)

Where:
C denoteds a combination.
n is the number of trials.
x is the random variable defined as the number of successes.
π is the probability of a success on each trial.

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Example

There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via US Airways into the
Bradford, Pennsylvaia Regional Airport. Suppose the probability that
any flight arrives late is 0.2.

What is the probability that none of the flights are late today? What is
the probability theat exactly one of the flights is late today?

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Remind that to construct a particular binomial probability distribution, we
use

(1) the number of trials: in this case is five (n = 5)

(2) the probability of success on each trial: in this case is
0.20(π = 0.20)

x is random variable. In this case a “success” is a plane that arrives late.

The probability that no plane arrives late (x = 0) is:

x
P(0) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
0
= 5 C0 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−0 = (1)(1)(0.3277) = 0.3277

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The probability that exactly one of the five flights will arrive late today is:
x
P(1) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
1
= 5 C1 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−1 = (5)(0.2)(0.4096) = 0.4096

The probability that exactly two of the five flights will arrive late today is:
x
P(2) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
2
= 5 C2 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−2 = (10)(0.04)(0.5120) = 0.2048

The probability that exactly three of the five flights will arrive late today
is:
x
P(3) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
3
= 5 C3 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−3 = (10)(0.008)(0.64) = 0.0512

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The probability that exactly four of the five flights will arrive late today is:
x
P(4) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
4
= 5 C4 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−4 = (5)(0.0016)(0.8) = 0.0064

The probability that exactly five of the five flights will arrive late today is:
x
P(5) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
5
= 5 C5 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−5 = (1)(0.0003)(1) = 0.0003

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Table: Binomial Probability Distribution for n = 5, π = 0.2
Number Probability
of Late
Flights
0 0.3277
1 0.4096
2 0.2048
3 0.0512
4 0.0064
5 0.0003
total 1.0000

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Figure: Binomial Probability Distribution for n = 5, π = 0.2

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Example

Suppose a die is tossed 5 time. What is the probability of getting exactly 2

fours?
In this problem, n = 5, π = 0.1667 and the “success” is getting “four”.
The binomial probability of getting 2 success from 5 trials is:
x
P(2) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
2
= 5 C2 (0.1667) (1 − 0.1667)5−2 = (10)(0.0278)(0.5786) = 0.1609

What about binoimial probability distribution is this case?

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The binomial probability of getting 0 success from 5 trials is:
x
P(0) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
0
= 5 C0 (0.1667) (1 − 0.1667)5−0 = (1)(1)(0.4018) = 0.4018

The binomial probability of getting 1 success from 5 trials is:

x
P(1) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
1
= 5 C1 (0.1667) (1 − 0.1667)5−1 = (5)(0.1667)(0.4822) = 0.4019

The binomial probability of getting 3 success from 5 trials is:

x
P(3) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
3
= 5 C3 (0.1667) (1 − 0.1667)5−3 = (10)(0.0046)(0.6944) = 0.0319

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The binomial probability of getting 4 success from 5 trials is:
x
P(4) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
4
= 5 C4 (0.1667) (1 − 0.1667)5−4 = (5)(0.0008)(0.8333) = 0.0033

The binomial probability of getting 5 success from 5 trials is:

x
P(5) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
5
= 5 C5 (0.1667) (1 − 0.1667)5−5 = (1)(0.0001)(1) = 0.0001

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Table: Binomial Probability Distribution for n = 5, π = 0.1667
Number of get- Probability
ting “four”
0 0.4018
1 0.4019
2 0.1609
3 0.0319
4 0.0033
5 0.0001
total 1.0000

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Example
Tossing a coin 10 time, what probability of getting 6 heads?

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Example

Hospital records show that the patients suffering from a certain disease,
75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected
patients, 4 will recover?
In this case, n = 6, π = 0.25 if you let “x” equal the number of recover
patients
The probability of 4 from 6 patients will recover is:
x
P(4) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
4
= 6 C4 (0.25) (1 − 0.25)6−4 = (15)(0.0039)(0.5625) = 0.0329

If we randomly select 6 patiens, we have only 3.29% to found 4 recover

patiens.

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In case of you use “x” equal the number of die, then π = 0.75 and the
question will chang to: What probability of 2 die from 6 patients from
such disease? (2 die from 6 patients equal 4 recover from 6 patiens)
x
P(2) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
2
= 6 C2 (0.75) (1 − 0.75)6−2 = (15)(0.5625)(0.0039) = 0.0330

If we randomly select 6 patiens, we have only 3.30% to found 2 die

patiens. You can see that two approachs give the same answer.

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Example

5% of the worm gears produced produced by an automatic, high-speed

Carter-Bell milling machine are defective.
What is the probability that out of six gears selected at random none will
be defectve? Exactly one? Exactly two? Exactly three? Exactly four?
Exactly five? Exactly six out of six?
In this case n = 6, π = 0.05 and x equal the number of defect gears. The
probability of none of six selected gears is defective is:

P(0) =6 C0 (0.05)0 (1 − 0.05)6−0 = (1)(1)(0.7351) = 0.7351

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The probability of one of six selected gears is defective is:

P(1) =6 C1 (0.05)1 (1 − 0.05)6−1 = (6)(0.05)(0.7738) = 0.2321

The probability of two of six selected gears is defective is:

P(2) =6 C2 (0.05)2 (1 − 0.05)6−2 = (15)(0.0025)(0.8145) = 0.305

The probability of three of six selected gears is defective is:

P(3) =6 C3 (0.05)3 (1 − 0.05)6−3 = (20)(0.0001)(0.8574) = 0.0017

The probability of four of six selected gears is defective is:

P(4) =6 C4 (0.05)4 (1 − 0.05)6−4 = (15)(0)(0.9025) = 0.0000

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The probability of five of six selected gears is defective is:

P(5) =6 C5 (0.05)5 (1 − 0.05)6−5 = (6)(0)(0.9500) = 0.0000

The probability all of six selected gears is defective is:

P(6) =6 C6 (0.05)6 (1 − 0.05)6−6 = (1)(0)(1) = 0.0000

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Binomial Probability Tables

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Shortcut of Mean and Variance of Binomial
Distribution

Mean of A Binomial Distribution

µ=n·π (5)

Variance of A Binomial Distribution

σ 2 = n · π · (1 − π) (6)

In example of the late flights, recall that π = 0.2 and n = 5. So:

µ = nπ = (5)(0.2) = 1
σ 2 = nπ(1 − π) = 5(0.2)(1 − 0.2) = 0.8

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Comparing with standdard calculation of Mean and
Variance: The answer is the same

From defective gears example, mean and variance is

µ = nπ = (6)(0.05) = 0.30
σ 2 = nπ(1 − π) = 6(0.05)(0.95) = 0.285

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Remark

(1) If n remains the same but π increase from 0.05 to 0.95, for example,
the shape of the distribution changes.

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The probabilities for a π of 0.05 are positively skewed. As π approaches
0.50, the distribution becomes symmetrical. As π goes beyond 0.5 and
move toward 0.95, the probability distribution becomes negatively skewed.
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Cumulative Binomial Probability Distributions

In case of you wish to know the probability of correctly guessing the

answers to 6 or more true/false questions out of 10.
Or you may be interested in the probability of selecting less than two
defectives at random from production during the previous hour.
In these case you need cumulative frequency distributions.

Example: A recent study by the Mmerican Highway Patrolman’s

Association revealed that 60 percent of American drivers use their
seat belts. A sample of 10 drivers on the Florida Turnpike is selected.

1. What is the probability that exactly 7 are wearing seat belts?

2. What is the probability that 7 or fewer of the drivers are wearing seat
belts?

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1. What is the probability that exactly 7 are wearing seat belts?

P(7) =10 C7 (0.6)7 (1 − 0.6)10−7 = (120)(0.028)(0.064) = 0.2150

2. What is the probability that 7 or fewer of the drivers are wearing seat
belts?

P(x 6 7) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6) + P(7)

= 0 + 0.002 + 0.011 + 0.042 + 0.111 + 0.201 + 0.251 + 0.215
= 0.833

Alternative calculation is using complement rule.

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1. A blindfolded marksman finds that on average he hits the target 4 time
out of 5. If he fires 4 shots, what is the probability of
(a) more than 2 hits?
(b) at least 3 misses?
2. The ratio of boys and girls at birth in Singapore is quite high at 1.09 :
1. What proportion of Singapore families with exactly 6 children will have
at least 3 boys?
A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average, 12% of his
piston are rejected because they are either oversize or undersize. What is
the probability that a batch of 10 piston will contain...
(a) no more than 2 rejects?
(b) at least 2 rejects?

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Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson Distribution was developed by the French mathematician

“Simeon Denis Poisson” in 1837.
The Poisson probability distribution describes the number of times some
event occurs during a specified interval. The interval may be tie, distance,
area, or volume.
The distribution is based on two assumption:
(1) the probability is proportional to the length of the interval: the
longer the interval the larger the probability.
(2) the intervals are independent: the number of occurrences in one
interval does not affect the other intervals.

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The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable X representing
the number of successes occurring in a given time interval or a specified
region of space.
The poisson distribution can be described mathematically by following
formula:
µx e −µ
P(x) = (7)
x!
Where:
µ is the mean number of occurrences (successes) in a particular
interval.
e is the constant 2.71828
x is the number of occurrences (successes)
P(x) is the probability for a specified value of x

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Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution

If µ is the average number of successes occurring in a given time interval

or region in the Poisson distribution, then the mean and the variance of
the Poisson distribution are both equal to µ or:

E (X ) = µ (8)
2
V (X ) = σ = µ (9)

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Example

Baggage is rarely lost by Northwest Airlines. Suppose a random samle of

1,000 flights shows a total of 300 bags were lost. Thus, the arithmetic
300
mean number of lost bags per flight is 1,000 = 0.3.
If the number of lost bags per flight follows a Poisson distribution with
µ = 0.3, we can compute the various probabilities using formula (7).
For example, the probabilities of not losing any bags is:

(0.3)0 (e −0.3 )
P(0) = = 0.7408
0!
74 percent of the flights will have no lost baggage.

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The probability of exactly one lost bag is:

(0.3)1 (e −0.3 )
P(1) = = 0.2222
1!
We would expect to find exactly one lost bag on 22 percent of the flights.

The probability of exactly two lost bag is:

(0.3)2 (e −0.3 )
P(2) = = 0.0333
2!
We would expect to find exactly two lost bag only 3.33 percent of the
flights.

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Example

A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life insurance policies per
week. Use Poisson’s law to calculate the probability that in a given week
he will sell...
(a) Some policies
(b) 2 or more policies but less that 5 policies
(c) Assuming that there are 5 working days per week, what is the
probability that in a given day he will sell one policy?

In this case µ = 3
“some policies” means “1 or more policies.” So,

P(X > 0) = 1 − P(0)

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 µx e −µ 30 e −3
P(0) = = = 0.0498
x! 0!
So, the probability of sell some policies is:

P(X > 0) = 1 − P(0) = 1 − 0.0498 = 0.9502

(b) The probability of selling 2 or more, but less that 5 policies is:

P(2 6 x < 5) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4)

32 e −3 33 e −3 34 e −3
= + +
2! 3! 4!
= 0.2240 + 0.2240 + 0.1680
= 0.6160

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(c) Average number of policies sold per day: 35 = 0.6
So the probability of sell one on a given day is:

0.61 e −0.6
P(1) = = 0.3293
1!
Example:
Twenty sheets of aluminum alloy were examined for surface flaws. The
frequency of the number of sheets with a given number of flaws per sheet
was as follows:
Number of flaws Frequency
0 4
1 3
2 5
3 2
4 4
5 1
6 1
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What is the probability of finding a sheet chosen at random which
contains 3 or more surface flaws?
The average number of flaws for the 20 sheets is:
46
µ= = 2.3
20
The probability of finding 3 or more surface flaws is:

P(x > 3) = P(3) + P(4) + ... + P(20)

= 1 − [P(0) + P(1) + P(2)]
 0 −2.3
2.31 e −2.3 2.32 e −2.3

2.3 e
= 1− + +
0! 1! 2!
= 0.40396

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Example

If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution with

an average of 3 failures every twenty weeks, calculate the probability
that there will not be more than one failure during a particular week.
3
Solution:The average number of failure per week is: µ = 20 = 0.15
“No more thay one failure” means we need to include the probabilities for
“ 0 failures” and “1 failure” that is:
0.150 e −0.15 0.151 e −0.15
P(0) + P(1) = +
0! 1!
= 0.98981

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Example

From acturay tables the Washington Insurance Company determined the

likelinood that a man age 25 will die with the nest year is 0.0002. If
Washington insurance sells 4,000 policies to 25 year old men this year,
what is the probability they will pay on exactly one policy?
In this case µ = n · π = 4, 000(0.0002) = 0.8

0.81 e −0.8
P(1) = = 0.3595
1!
In you use Binomial distribution formulas, in this case
n = 4, 000, π = 0.0002 and x = die then,
1
P(1) = 4,000 C1 (0.0002) (1 − 0.0002)4,000−1
= 3, 999(0.0002)(0.4494) = 0.3594

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Difference between Binomial and Poisson
Probability Distribution

With a binomial distribution you have a certain number, n , of

”attempts,” each of which has probability of success π. With a Poisson
distribution, you essentially have infinite attempts, with infinitesimal
chance of success. That is, given a Binomial distribution with some n, π,
if you let n → ∞ and π → 0 in such a way that nπ → µ, then that
distribution approaches a Poisson distribution.

The binomial distribution can be approximated by the poisson distri-

bution, if the number of attempts (n) tends to infinity and success
probability (π) tends to 0 so that µ = nπ.

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Difference between Binomial and Poisson
Probability Distribution (Cont.)

In Binomial Distribution, µ > σ 2 but in Poisson Distribution, µ = σ 2

Poisson distribution are used in situation that would be more properly

represented by a Binomial distribution with a very large n and small
π, especially when the exact values of n and π are unknown.

Example:
1. A typist makes on average 2 mistake per page. What is the propbability
of a particular page having no error on it?
2. A computer crashes once every 2 days on average. What is the
probability of there being 2 crashes in one week?

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3. Components are packed in boxes of 20. The probability of a component
being defective is 0.1. What is the probability of a box containing 2
defective component?
4. ICs are packaged in boxes of 10. The probability of an ic being faulty is
2%. What is the probability of a box containing 2 faulty ics?
5. The mean number of faults in a new house is 8. What is the probability
of buying a new house with exactly 1 fault?
6. A box contains a large number of washers; there are twice as many
steel washers as brass ones. Four washers are selected at random from the
box. What is the probability that 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 are brass?

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The poisson distribution is positively skewed. As µ become larger, the
Poisson distribution becomes more symmetrical.

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