We Transport NSW | for NSW Inner West Light Rail Line Short-Term Capacity oF Enhancements Final Business Case SENSITIVE: NSW GOVERNMENT Document Information PE Names: Author Stonepath Consisting ye OM Namo: Terry Brown “ Title: Director Rall Services Contracts Infrastructure & Services TINSW GIPA Application 197-0009 Page 215 of 3581 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Introduction ‘The Inner West Light Rall is used to transport passengers between Central and Lilyfield, through to Dulwich Hill, Transdev, which is part of the ALTRAC consortium, operates these services 7 days a ‘week, on behalf of Transport for NSW. Customers are transported using 12 Urbos 3 light ral vehicles, of which 10 are used to provide peak services and the remaining 2 light rail vehicles are held as spare and for maintenance. The existing ‘number of light rail vehicies restricts the meximum peak service frequency to one service ever/'8 minutes. This service frequency Is provided for two hours during AM peak (7:00 — 9:00) and two hours curing FM peck (1:00 18:00) dung the weekdoys. The service frequency is lower at oher times Curing weekdays, the weekend and public holidays. Demand for light rail trips has grown rapidly. Starting at 2.8 milion in 2008/10 and inzredsing to 9.2 million in 2016/17, the number of passenger trips on Sydney's light rail network: Nag grown by a ‘compound annual growth rate of 18.6% per year. 1.2. Need for the Investment ‘The rapid growth in the demand for ght rail tips will continue, Neatly 3,000, passenger tips are currently undertaken on the Inner West Light Rail during the AM peak ‘-hour.’ This is expected to Increase by 8.0% per year (compound) through to 2021. By 2041, the demand for light rll trips during the AM peak ‘-hour will more than doubie to over 6,200. ; ‘There is a significant risk that the current fleet size cannot accommodate the forecast growth in demand (particulary in the short term), without a significdnt fallin customer experience. Transport for NSW's Customer Satisfaction Index shows that from May 2015, customer dissatisfaction with service frequency is increasing due to the constraints discussed above. It also shows that customers ave increasingly dissatisfied with the availabilty of seating and personal space in the light rail vehicle. The deterioration in customer experience is: expected to accelerate if these problems are not addressed. Modeling undertaken for this:fital business case provides evidence that the excess demand for services will continue to poSe a significant risk to customer experience on light rail. For exemple, by 2021, the peak maximum passenger load on westbound services during the AM peak 1- hour will exceed’ total seated and’standing capacity. Numerous similar examples are provided throughout this final business case: Without changes to the existiig timetable, an increasing number of customers will face higher travel costs, including additional time and financial cost spent: * Waiting at iné ight rail stop for the next service; + Watting'f the customer cannot board the next light ail service; & + _S€aiching, accessing and using an alternative mode when the customer cannot board the «pet service + In increasingly crowded conditions at the light rail stop; and * Sitting in increasingly crowded conditions or standing in the light rail vehicle, Under certain circumstances, the problems may become so significant in the future that there will be fiow on impacts on the broader community, For exampla, the inability of light rail to maintain or Increase mode share (compared with less sustainable transport modes such as private vehicles) will ® service especity planning must have regard to maximum passenger load during the peak period, This occurs during the AM peak thou. Sensitive: NSWAGAYEIPAPHhication 197-0009 Page 228 of 358 Page 14 of 128‘see the environmental cost of the transport task increase. This scenario will also add to already high levels of road congestion. Finally, constraints on the capacity of light rail services may also delay and/or constrain the feasibility of significant land use changes proposed in the Inner West Light Rail corridor. ‘These problems will challenge the achievement of the outcomes sought ftom the Inner West Light Rail. The largest impact is on the objective to ‘improve public transport access and connections between where people live, work and visit. The case for change and potential solutions appraised in this final business case are fully supportive of key NSW Government objectives including those in the Future Transport Strategy 2056, in particular: + Customer focussed; Successful places; and + Growing the economy. 1.3. Proposed Strategy The proposed strategy to address the problem discussed above is to acquis four additional ight rail vehicies from the LRV supplier, the manufacturer ofthe vehicles. This will increase the current flest to 416 light rail vehicles (comprising 14 light rail vehicles in operation, ong in maintenance and one as spate), The ational ight ral votcles wil be used to increase the frequency of services during the peak and interpeak periods. Key dependencies of the proposed strategy are successful agreetient being reached between: ‘© Transport for NSW and" “for delivery of four additional light rail vehicles in the required time; and * + Transport for NSW and{-—"~} on increasing the frequency of services with the additional light rail vehicles and the’ Seta changes ‘to the Inner West Light Rail timetable. ‘This final business case considers two options for short-term capactty enhancements of the Inner ‘West Light Rall (referred to hereafter as Short-term capacity enhancements): + Option 4 ~ increase the freqiéncy of peak period services (7:00 AM to 10:00 AM; 3:00 PM to 7:00 PM)’ from one service every 8 minutes to one service every 6 minutes. There would be rno change to interpeek'services; and * Option 2 — increase the frequenoy of peak period services (7:00 AM to 10:00 AM; 3:00 PM to 7:00 PM) frorp One service every 8 minutes to one service every 6 minutes and increase the frequency of all interpeak services (10:00 AM to 3:00 PM) from one service every 13 minutes to one service every 10 minutes, 4.4 Funding required The capital costin this final business case is for acquisition of the light ral vehicles. The value is the same for Option 1 and Option 2. The cashfiowed capital costs for Option 1 and Option 2 are shown in Table 1-1. 2 The morning peok periods extended by an adcitonal ou to 10:00 AM, Instead of frishing at 8.00 AM, Sensitive: NSW ZQVEIBRRBbicaton 191.0009 Page 229 of359 Page 18 0f 128