Arid Zone Journal of Engineering, Technology and Environment, June, 2018; Vol.

14(2): 162-168
Copyright © Faculty of Engineering, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria.
Print ISSN: 1596-2490, Electronic ISSN: 2545-5818, www.azojete.com.ng

DETERMINATION OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY MIX TO MEET NIGERIA VISION 20:2020

ON POWER USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING
Mohammed H. I.*, Idriss I. M, Baba D., Aji M. M. and Ibrahim D.
(Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Maiduguri, Nigeria.)
*
Corresponding author: mohammedhabu@unimaid.edu.ng

Abstract
Nigeria is rich in energy resources but have serious power problem. This study focused on optimal
distribution of power generation among the energy resources. The cost data for plant that will commence
operation in 2018 was collected along with power plant efficiency, lifespan, and energy resources reserve
or potential. The objective function was the cost of generating 40,000 MW. The model was developed
along with constraints on the energy resources reserve. Various constraints were placed on some
resources utilization such as: solar due to its intermittent nature, natural gas due to security of pipelines,
hydro and coal, due to their reliability. The objective function was solved along with the equality and
inequality constraints using linear programming. The optimal mix ratio for generating 40000 MW is
2:4:5:5 of solar, hydro, coal and gas, respectively at the cost of 1.173 trillion US dollars.

Keywords: Energy resources, constraints, objective function, power, energy mix

1. Introduction
The ambition of the Federal Government of Nigeria is to achieve the vision 20: 2020 target of
40, 000 MW of electric power. Currently, the average output is 3800MW, which is the result of
the effort from the late 19 century (Onagoruwa, 2011). Power generation in Nigeria dated back
to the colonial era at then Lagos colony, in 1898, when the first generating power plant was
installed in the city of Lagos to supply the colony with power. In 1929, the Nigeria Electric
Supply Company (NESCO) was established. The pattern of electricity development was in the
form of individual electricity power undertakings scattered all over the towns. Some of the few
undertakings were established by Federal Government bodies under the Works Department,
some by the Native Authorities and others by the Municipal Authorities (Ifedi, 2005)

By 1950, the then-colonial government passed the Electricity Corporation of Nigeria, (ECN)
ordinance No. 15 of 1950. With this ordinance in place, the electricity department and all those
undertakings which were controlled came under one body. In 1962, Niger Dams Authority,
(NDA) was established to develop the hydropower potentials in Nigeria. In 1972, ECN and the
Niger Dam Authority (NDA) were merged to become the National Electric Power Authority
(NEPA) by Decree No. 24, and a general Manager was appointed (Ifedi, 2005). NEPA is a
department in the Ministry of Power, served both as the policy making body and the regulator.
The statutory function of the authority is to develop, co-ordinate and maintain an efficient and
economical system of electricity supply throughout the Federation. The decree further states that
the monopoly of all commercial electric supply shall be enjoyed by NEPA to the exclusion of all
other organizations. This however, does not prevent private individuals who wish to buy and run
thermal plants for domestic use from doing so. NEPA, from 1989, has since gained another
status-that of quasi-commercialization. By this, NEPA has been granted partial autonomy and by
implication, it is to feed itself. The total generating capacity of the six major power stations is
3,450 megawatts (Federal Ministry of Power, 2012). The performance of NEPA was below
expectation, which led to enactment of Electric Power Reform Act.
Arid Zone Journal of Engineering, Technology and Environment, June, 2018; Vol. 14(2):162-168.
ISSN 1596-2490; e-ISSN 2545-5818; www.azojete.com.ng

In 2004, National Integration Power Project (NIPP) was established to increase the country
power generation. This is to improve overall generating capacity and end gas flaring from oil
exploration, which led to development of ten power plants in various locations in the country,
which when completed, will supply 5152.13 MW (Oni, 2011).
In 2007, government has divided the current PHCN distribution sector into eleven separate
companies or entities that will be called Local Electric Distribution Companies or Local
Distribution Companies (LDC) among the regions. Following another privatization programme
in 2013, PHCN was de-established. This development has changed the monopoly of power
generation and distribution enjoyed by the then NEPA and PHCN. Another standard have been
set for generation and commercialization of power (Kolodoye et al., 2012). A standard have
been set by NERC that any generation that exceeds 1 MW for private use requires permit, while
for commercial requires license. The permit for private lasts for five years. This led to the
issuance of license to the generation, transmission and distribution companies (Oni, 2011).
About one-third of the country’s power is provided by hydroelectricity, although this source has
the potential to provide an even greater amount of power (Osueke and Ezeh, 2011). The main
sources of hydroelectric power are the dams at Kainji, Shiroro (Niger state), and Jebba (Kwara
state). Thermal plants fired with natural gas and coal are at Afam, Sapele, and Lagos and on the
Oji River and supply about three-fifths of the country’s power (FRN Gazette, 2004). Currently,
renewable energies such as solar and wind are in developmental stages (Efurumibe et al., 2014)
this is evident in Katsina state, where 10 MW of electricity is to be produced from wind energy.
Presidential Action Committee on Power (2010) have reported the policy necessary to resolve
the challenges facing power sector, effort have been made in utilizing the Nation’s other energy
resources (including coal, crude oil, wind, solar, small and medium hydro, biomass and nuclear)
to diversify the energy generation resources. Zungeru (700MW) Hydroelectric Power Project
(Federal Republic of Nigeria Official Gazette, 2004). The Zungeru Hydroelectric Power Project
was conceived as a 950 MW power plant on the basis of feasibility studies conducted in the
1980s. However, this random approach to power generation for a country that has several energy
resources need to be optimized, to minimize the cost of power generation. Aji et al. (2015) have
suggested mix energy source for power generation, but did not present the pattern at which
generation will be distributed.

Currently, the exploited energy resources are: hydro, gas, solar, wind, and coal. Despite these
efforts, the nation is yet to achieve its goal. Resource allocation is paramount in planning the
power sector, this will tell the optimal resources to use and path to take to achieve the target.
Linear programming is one of the effective tools in resources allocation. There is need to develop
blue print for mixed energy resources to be used optimally for power generation. The aim of this
work is to develop a blue print for mix of resources for power generation, and the objectives are
to:
i. Develop a mathematical models that represent optimal energy mix for power generation;
ii. Solve the model equations using linear programming to determine suitable resources
distribution for power generation;

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Mohammed, et al.: Determination of sustainable energy mix to meet nigeria vision 20:2020 on power
using linear programming. AZOJETE, 14(2):162-168 ISSN 1596-2490; e-ISSN 2545-5818,
www.azojete.com.ng

2. Methodology
2.1 Data collection
Levelized electric power cost, c data for coal, gas, hydro, wind and solar power plant denoted as
respectively, were collected and tabulated. The Nigeria proven energy
resources data were sourced along with their lower heating values (LHV) of the fossil fuels. The
efficiency, heat input per kilowatt-hour, BTU/kWh of electric power generated for each power
plant system were collected from literature as well as the life span of the plants.
2.2 Model Formulation
The objective function represents the cost of generating electricity from the mix of energy
resources, this include coal, hydro, natural gas, solar and wind and is presented in equation 1.

( ) ∑ ( )

Where c, t,and x is the levelized cost, lifespan, and power allocated to be generated from the
selected energy resources, respectively.
Subject to:

∑ ( )

( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
Equation 5, 6, and 7 represent energy resource reserves. The amount of power to be generated
from these resources should be less than or equal to the resources reserves.
2.3 Solution of the Models
The objective function, equation (1) was solved to minimize the cost for building mixed power
plant subject to the constraints presented in equations (2) to (7). Microsoft excel 2013 was
employed to solve these set of equations. The unknown variable x was assumed, and excel
programme was written for the equations one to seven. The DATA on menu bar was clicked,
What-If-Analysis on the submenu was dropped down and solver was selected. The solver
dialogue box appeared, the cell containing objective function was set to minimum, the cells
containing variables, x, that were assumed were selected, the cells that contained the constraints
inequalities were loaded to the constraint space provided, the simplex linear programming engine
was selected from the drop and finally solve button was clicked. The iteration was performed and
minimum cost and allotted power for each of the resources considered were obtained after 1,000
iterations.

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Arid Zone Journal of Engineering, Technology and Environment, June, 2018; Vol. 14(2):162-168.
ISSN 1596-2490; e-ISSN 2545-5818; www.azojete.com.ng

3. Results and Discussion

The Nigeria’s energy resources reserves are presented in Table 1. The electric power equivalent reserve
for natural gas is higher followed by coal. This shows that long term plan on power generation from gas
and coal is needed to achieve the country’s proposition of generating 40000MW. We have 12825 MW of
power from hydro source, this is a clean and renewable source of energy.This require constraints such that
large percent of the resource is used. Despite the huge reserve of coal and natural gas, the generation of
electric power from these source have penalty on environment. However, research efforts on carbon
capture and sequestration (CCS) will minimize emission and increase power cost. There is high potential
of solar and wind for power generation, but careful planning is needed due to intermittent nature of power
from these two sources. However cheap they are, they cause damage to transmission lines due to
uncontrollable fluctuation when solely used.
Table 1: Reserve of the Nigeria Energy Resources
Resource type Estimated Resources Estimated Electric power LHV
Reserves Equivalent (MW)
Natural gas 166 trillion SCF 1.66x1012 0.897 MJ/SCF
Coal and lignite 2.7 billion tonnes 2.7x109 20000 MJ/tonne
Hydropower 14250 MW 12825
Solar 3.5 to 7 kWh/m2/day
Wind 2 to 4 m/s annual
average at 10 m height
Source: (Oyedepo, 2012)
Apart from the intermittence nature of the power supply from wind source, the cost of generating
electricity almost double that of gas and higher than that of coal with CCS technology as presented in
Table 2. In addition the wind mill farm requires large area of land. Conca (2015) have highlighted that
wind is not frugal because of its initial cost and intermittent nature in power supply. The grid efficiency is
26 %, this is low compare to gas and coal power plants (Spath et al., 1999). The photovoltaic solar source
has similar disadvantage as wind to certain extent, such as cost, intermittence, large area occupied by the
solar panels. However, it is less expensive but has lowest grid efficiency of 12 % (US EIA, 2011). These
disadvantages placed strong constraints in allocating amount of power to be generated from these sources.
Hydropower is reliable, emission free, and renewable but limited, the Nigeria hydropower potential is
only 14,000 MW (Oyedepo, 2012). This makes its choice necessary. The exploitation of large fraction of
the resource is essential.
Table 2: Levelized Cost, Efficiency and Lifespan of Power generation System
Plant type LCOE Source Efficiency Source Lifespan Source
Advanced with (%) (years)
CCS ($/MWh)
Advanced coal 135.5 (US EIA, 33 (US EIA, 25 (Ambrossini,
with CCS 2013) 2011) 2005)

Advanced 93.4 38 30 (Ambrossini,

NGCC with 2005)
CCS
Hydroelectric 90.3 90 50 (Wieland, 2010)
power plant
Wind 86.6 26 30 (Conca, 2015)
Solar PV 144.3 12 25 (Maehlum,
2014)

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Mohammed, et al.: Determination of sustainable energy mix to meet nigeria vision 20:2020 on power
using linear programming. AZOJETE, 14(2):162-168 ISSN 1596-2490; e-ISSN 2545-5818,
www.azojete.com.ng

The use of coal and natural gas in power generation constitutes carbon emissions. The current
practice is to include CCS in the power cost which also increases operation cost. The cost of
electricity from gas with CCS is cheaper than that of coal, $93.40/MWh for gas and
$135.50/MWh for IGCC with CCS for plant commence 2018 (EIA, 2013) as presented in Table
2. The constraints we have in the country is security of the pipelines that supply gas to the power
stations. This challenge has led to partial operation and total shutdown of the existing gas power
plants. The option is now left between coal that cost higher, and gas that involve uncertainty.

3.2 Simulation Results

The results of the simulation are presented in Table 3. Under the constraints solar is the preferred
and less costly power source. The 40000 MW cost approximately 7.6x1011 US dollars. The
intermittent nature of power generation from solar render its choice practically uneconomical.
Table 3: Simulation Results 1
Energy Power generation,X Cost, C Lifespan, t, C*t*x ($)
Resources (MW) ($/MWh) (hours)
Coal 0 135.5 219150 0
Hydro 0 93.4 438300 0
NG 0 90.3 262980 0
Solar 40000 86.6 219150 7.59136E+11
Wind 0 144.3 262980 0
40000 7.59136E+11

By placing constraints on wind and solar to be less than or equal to 5000 MW, due to their
performance disadvantage, the natural gas was favoured, 35000 MWe was allocated to natural
gas and 5000 MW to solar at the cost of almost 9.261x1011 US dollars. As presented in Table 4.
Table 4: Simulation Results 2
Energy Power generation, X Cost, C Lifespan, t, C*t*x ($)
Resources (MW) ($/MWh) (hours)
Coal 0 135.5 219150 0
Hydro 0 93.4 438300 0
NG 35000 90.3 262980 8.31148E+11
Solar 5000 86.6 219150 94891950000
Wind 0 144.3 262980 0
40000 9.2604E+11

The natural gas is reliable and cheaper for power generation, however the gas supply to power
plant is intermittent due to attacks on pipelines from time to time. To address the problem, a
constraints was placed on the power from natural gas to be less than or equal to the power from
coal. The hydroelectric is more expensive than natural gas and solar, but no security threat, and
is emission free. The simulation results are presented in Table 5.

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Table 5: Simulation Results 3

Energy Power generation,X Cost, C Lifespan, C*t*x ($)
Resources (MW) ($/MWh) t, (hours)
Coal 12500 135.5 219150 3.71185E+11
Hydro 10000 93.4 438300 4.09372E+11
NG 12500 90.3 262980 2.96839E+11
Solar 5000 86.6 219150 94891950000
Wind 0 144.3 262980 0
40000 1.17229E+12
The Nigeria hydroelectric potential is 14250 MW. Considering the environmental and security
advantage, a constraint of generating 10000 MWe was placed on it. The simulation result is
presented in Table 5. The cost of 40000MWe was 1.1723x1012 US dollars.
4. Conclusion
The distribution of power generation among the Nigeria energy resources has been studied. The
resources considered in the studies are coal, hydro, natural gas, solar, and wind. The technology
considered is advanced with CCS. The cost model for generating 40000 MW was developed
along with equality and inequality constraints on the resources. The model equation, objective
function, was solved using linear programming.
The results lead to the following conclusions:
1. The cheapest means of generating electricity is solar. The cost of generating 40000 MW
is 7.592x1011 US dollars. In practical sense, is not sustainable to totally depend on solar
due to its intermittent nature. The cheaper source is the natural gas which cost 9.5 x1011
US dollars to generate 40000 MW. The power from natural gas is stable but attacks on
pipelines have made total dependency on gas in Nigeria unsustainable.
2. The sustainable energy mix evaluated from the simulation is 12,500 MW each for coal
and gas, 5,000 MW for solar and 10,000 MW for hydropower. This mix cost 1.173
trillion US dollars.

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