TUGAS II

Q.1 (30 point)

A developer is considering 3 options for his project next year. He can expand his current
big project, move to a medium project, or make no change. With a good market,
the annual payoff would be IDR 100.0 billion if he expands it, IDR 70.0 billion if he
moves and IDR 30.0 billion if he does nothing. With an average market, his payoff will
be IDR 60.0, 40.0, and $ 20.0 billion, respectively. With a poor market, his payoff will
be IDR - 20.0, -5.0 and 5.0 billion, respectively.
Seorang pengembang sedang mempertimbangkan 3 pilihan untuk proyek tahun depan. Dia dapat
memperluas proyek besar yang sekarang, bergerak ke proyek menengah, atau membuat tidak
ada perubahan. Dengan pasar yang baik, hasil tahunan akan sebesar Rp 100,0 miliar jika ia
memperluas, Rp 70,0 miliar jika ia bergerak dan Rp 30,0 miliar jika dia tidak melakukan perubahan.
Dengan pasar rata-rata, hasil nya akan IDR 60,0, 40,0, dan 20,0 $ miliar. Dengan pasar yang buruk,
hasilnya akan IDR -20,0, -5,0 dan 5,0 miliar.

Question:
Which option should be chosen by developer? if he uses :
a. The maximax criterion.
b. The maximin Criterion.
c. The equally likely criterion
d. The criterion of realism with α = 0.6.
e. The minimax regret criterion.

Q.2 (30 point)

The developer (see Q-1) has gathered some additional information. The probabilities
of good, average, and poor market are 0.20, 0.50 and 0.3, respectively.

Question:
a. Using EMVs, what option should be chosen ? What is the maximum EMV ?
b. Using EOL, what option should be chosen ? What is a minimum EOL ?
c. Compute the EVPI and show that it is the same as the minimum EOL.

Q.3 (10 point)

After surveying the market, developer has more accurate information:

Probability Good Average Poor Opportunity

Probability + 0,50 0,40 0,10 0.60

Probability - 0,20 0,40 0,40 0.40

Question:
• Analysis with decision tree, which option should be chosen?
Q.4 (30 point)

If you are trusted as a project manager for developing a construction project. What
will you do with your knowledge on project management for achieving project goals by
using time management, quality management and cost management. Please explain it
briefly.
Jika Anda dipercaya sebagai manajer proyek untuk mengembangkan proyek konstruksi. Apa yang
akan Anda lakukan dengan pengetahuan Anda tentang manajemen proyek untuk mencapai tujuan
proyek dengan menggunakan manajemen waktu, manajemen mutu dan manajemen biaya. Harap
dijelaskan secara singkat.