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Simon Lomsadze1, Tamaz Kupatadze2


Georgian Technical University

Problems of Multiservice Traffic Prediction in Radio


Networks for Mobile Operators

Introduction
The volume of multiservice traffic in mobile operator telecommunication networks will increase
11 times over the next 4–5 years. Such a conclusion was drawn by the company Cisco in its annually pub-
lished report, which is dedicated to traffic growth trend studies. According to this report, the share of vid-
eo traffic in the mobile operator network with respect to the entire traffic volume will grow up to 69%,
caused by 5 billion mobile users, more than 10 billion mobile stations and a variety of methods of access-
ing the network [1].
Such distinct dynamics of traffic growth refers to the fact that the mobility of accessing any network
connection is one of the main features with great importance conferred upon it by users as well as compa-
nies. At the same time, for service providers it represents a specific reference for providing the technical
resources optimization in case of increased multiservice traffic.
When network traffic exceeds the permissible limits, there occurs overloading and some customers can
no longer use the operator services. Therefore, there is a necessity for providing the standard services
of proper quality. Consequently, for the telecommunication network operator the transmission of the mul-
tiservice traffic is a challenge the solution of which requires an integrated approach.
At present, two methods for solving this problem are known. In the first case, the operator
from the beginning creates a high-capacity telecommunications network, where the quality of service
offered by the mobile network operator to a subscriber depends only on the radio excess capacity.
The second way of solving the problem is to use a relatively sophisticated method of information man-
agement, and the provision of high-quality network performance is implemented on the basis of customer
service.
During the network planning, operators opt for the first way. The reason for such an option represents
low prices for channel resources and the mistakes made at the initial stage of network construction, when
the approximate volume of information to be transmitted is determined and the service usage growth rate
is forecast, which is devoid of high precision, and a certain part of the network channels are left unused.
According to the further development of the telecommunication market trends, such practice of telecom-
munication network planning and exploitation will change in the near future [2].

1
Simon Lomsadze – Master of telecommunications, graduated from Georgian Technical University. Has more than ten years
experience in telecommunications for different companies. Since 2013 has been a PhD student and currently is working
on the thesis – Telecommunication network optimization in case of increased multiservice traffic. His current research in-
terests include the analysis of mobile communication services and traffic distribution among telecommunication networks.
Georgian Technical University, Telecommunication, Tbilisi, Georgia, simon.lomsadze@magticom.ge
2 Tamaz Kupatadze – Doctor of Technical Sciences, Manager of Education Process. Profesor at the University, Telecommuni-
cations engineer. Participates in the development of Georgian Telecommunication Concept and creation of Telephone num-
bering system. Member of the Coordination Council for the development of the Informational and Communication Tech-
nologies in Georgia. Since 1995, he has organized several tenders for the reconstruction of Georgian telephone system. He
has carried out considerable survey and research in the Theory of Teletraffic and Telephone network design, which is re-
flected in a number of scientific papers. Georgian Technical University, Telecommunication, Tbilisi, Georgia, ta-
mazk@hotmail.com

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Experimental methods
The objective of our research, based on the statistical data studied at the mobile telecommunication
company network, is the analysis of the use of multiservice traffic, which allows us to determine
the parameters of traffic intensity during the highest load busy hour, and to predict what kind of services
customers are focused on and to assume the possibilities of service forms in use.
For this purpose, it is expedient to review the mobile operator GSM – (Global System for Mobile
Communications) network, which is divided into two systems: SS – (Switching System) and BSS – (Base
Station System). Each system is managed by a NMC – (Network Management Centre). The BSS system
provides all the functions related to the Radio network and includes a BSC – (Base Station Controller)
and a BTS – (Base Transceiver Station). The SS system performs the service of incoming requests
and the connection functions, as well as all user-defined services [3].
All the requests in the telecommunication network have their particular directions of route
from the customer to the SS and then to the final recipient. Mobile telecommunication network structure
is of particular importance, since users move and change their locations. Like the GSM network,
the method of network structure analysis can be applied to the UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunica-
tion System) network too, especially, given that the 3G network also has a GSM-like structure. Here
the main difference lies in channel separation principles and in the protocols used [4].

Fig. 1. GSM and 3G network example

For carrying out the experiment, we chose a specific section of the network, which provides radio cov-
erage of Tbilisi (Georgia). As mentioned above, the objective of our research was the analysis
of multiservice traffic usage on the basis of statistical data obtained from the mobile telecommunication
network.
During the experiment, throughout the total observation period while recording the collected data
(KPI – Key Performance Indicators), in the selected section of the mobile network, no sharp volatility
was observed, no station configuration changes were implemented and the radio coverage part was also
unchanged.
The network section observation and statistical data recording was carried out in accordance with ITU-
T recommendations. Based on the 22-day observation processing, the fixed hour of the highest load was
revealed.

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For implementation of the experiment was used the software NetStat, which is designed for observation
of energetic, logical and partially physical parameters. This program allows us to define the data
for any a specific BSC – relevant base station.
We also used a software product OMC-R produced MOTOROLA, which allows us to provide
the network monitoring in online mode and to solve different kinds of tasks: revealing of the faults
of radio connection to the network and their subsequent elimination. The program allows us to define
the configuration of the radio network, to find the data on the types of stations in the network,
to determine the number of radio stations and sectors. The program also gives us the information about
the parameters such as the power, the number and the radio frequency of base station transmitters. More-
over, it provides the observation of all possible sections of the radio network, traffic monitoring and regis-
tration of the statistical data of customer services used for their further processing, which implies delivery
of the data to the relevant services department, which, based on the statistical traffic data, will develop
the recommendations and planned works for further implementation of network optimization.

Results and Discussion


The operator continually observes and collects the statistics to ensure the high-quality work of the net-
work, as long as it is responsible for proper traffic service and quality requested by customers. For this,
special-purpose software are used, they are developed in accordance with the operator’s requirements
by the efforts of software and hardware manufacturers or directly by operator’s technical staff.
Appropriate hardware and software allow us to collect the necessary statistical data, and to produce /
update them in the operator’s network databases at any desired time. For example, in company’s OMC
(Operation and Maintenance Centre), NOKIA/SIEMENS and MOTOROLA’s software provided for net-
work management enable us to collect the statistical data in a time interval from 15 min to 1 hour. The
statistical data registered correspond to Δt time intervals, with 30-minute accuracy, which makes it possi-
ble to produce fair outcomes at the initial stage [5].
Based on the processing of statistical data, at the hour of the highest load, the average load made up
0.018 erlang, which corresponded to 66.36 second service. The fixed hour of the highest load for voice
calls was from 1.00 pm. to 2.00 p.m. and 2,875 incoming requests were recorded. The fixed single-day
hour of the highest load does not always coincide with the statistical timing values, and the time deviation
can reach 400 min. During the fixed hour of the highest load, the number of the fluctuations is too high
and, respectively, the statistical dispersion is 4 times greater than the average value, while the standard
deviation makes up 13.5%.

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The statistical hour of the highest load specified in such a manner is the fixed hour of the highest load.
Let us denote with Y the loading intensity of the ith (i = 1, m) hour and the jth (j = 1, n) day, then, during
the n number of days, the ith hour load will be:
n
Yi = ∑ Yij / n (1)
j =1

while the fixed hour of the highest load is


n
Y = max i∈m Yi = ∑ Yi max j / n (2)
j =1

In the same way we calculated the ith hour load for n days, and the fixed hour of the highest load
for SMS-es and Internet services. The fixed hour of the highest load for SMS was from 9.00 p.m. to 10.00
p.m. with 6,070 serviced requests and for the Internet it was from 4.00 p.m. to 5.00 p.m. with 278 ser-
viced requests.
Mobile operators are keen to provide customers with traditional and new services. The network load
increases continually, which is primarily due to an increase in the number of users. Therefore,
the estimated traffic volume handling and the forecast of appropriate use of services enables the operators
to use the optimal network planning and radio resources efficiently.
The determination of request intensity at the highest load period of time enabled us to identify
the incoming request intensity for each type of service, in particular – A 1 =2,875; A 2 =6,070; A 3 =278.
The total intensity of incoming requests for service type was determined by the formula:
n
λ = ∑ λi
i =1 (3)
where, λ1 = 0.79, λ2 = 1.68, λ3 = 0.07, and therefore λ = 2.54 requests /second. Hence each type
of service (voice calls, SMS and the Internet) incoming probabilities are determined by the following
formula: P = λ1/ λ, P1 = 0.311, P2 = 0.661, P3= 0.027,
n

∑ P =1
i =1
i (4)

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Conclusions
Here are the results that we obtained from the experiments:
• The hour of the highest load and the average number of incoming requests for each type of service
were determined.
• The average value of load for the hour of the highest load generated by the customer was determined,
it made up 0.018 erlangs, (66.36 seconds of service).
• It was established that, during the fixed single-day hour of the highest load did not always coincide
with the statistical timing values and the time deviation reached 400 minutes. During the fixed hour
of the highest load the number of fluctuations was too high, and accordingly the statistical dispersion
was 4 times greater than the average value, while the standard deviation made up 13.5%.
• The analysis based on the statistical data showed that, among the services provided by mobile opera-
tors, the customers preferred SMS, evidenced by the high probability of SMS service.
• The probabilities of incoming requirements on service types (voice calls , SMS and Internet) were de-
fined, which is necessary for determining the volume of network resources and their efficient distribu-
tion.

Abstract
The focus of our research is the analysis of multiservice traffic in mobile telecommunication networks,
which gives us the ability to determine the highest load busy hour for multiservice traffic parameters,
to predict which services are of the highest priority for customers and accordingly to predict service prob-
abilities.
Keywords: Multiservice traffic, Radio network, Prediction, statistic, Mobile operator, Consumers

References
[1] http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-
vni/white_paper_c11-520862.html;
[2] Степанов С.Н.: Основы телетрафика мультисервисных сетей. – Москва: 2010. – 392с.
[3] Eberspacher J., Vogel H.-J., Bettstetter C.: GSM Switching Services and Protocols, Second Edition.
– Munich, March: 2001.
[4] Holma H., Toskala A.: WCDMA For UMTS, Third Edition. October: 2004.
[5] Корнышев Ю.Н., Фань Г.Л.: Теория распределения информации. – Москва, Радио и Связь:
1985. C.19.

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