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MBA 605

ESSENTIAL ANALYTICAL METHODS

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FOR BUSINESS

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ROLL NO 431(SHJ)

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JAVED MOHAMMEDHANIF BUMLAJIWALA

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Question 1

benefit you in your current or future job.

from data. As a discipline it is concerned with the collection,

analysis, and interpretation of data, as well as the effective

communication and presentation of results relying on data.

Statistics lies at the heart of the type of quantitative reasoning

necessary for making important advances in the sciences, such

as medicine and genetics, and for making important decisions in

business and public policy.

practical world. It has applications in:

• Bioinformatics;

• Biology (biostatistics or biometrics);

• Climatology;

• Computing or computer science (statistical computing is a highly

sought-after skill);

• Economics (econometrics);

• Finance (financial statistics);

• Psychology (psychometrics);

• Physics (statistical physics is a modern discipline in physics);

• The health industry (medical statistics).

standardized unit of measurement for presenting data in a useful

and meaningful format. Statistics can be used to measure

historical performance and to forecast future targets. For

business managers and leaders, statistics provide insight into

how business units are performing relative to an organizations

goals and objectives. Statistics also forecast future trends and

are used in all areas of human thought an endeavor for planning

purposes.

frequently undertake studies for the purposes of formulating policy and

businesses use data to identify what is currently working and what is

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not. Business initiatives are altered to improve organizational

performance based on feedback from statistical studies. Advertising

companies use statistics to assess target markets and formulate

campaigns. Marketers use statistics to identify opportunities for

business development.

other departments. As in our banking industries we usually track the

daily performance of our team and other department and create many

MIS task to give a presentation to the higher management in our

department.

ways which gives nice and fast explanation to succeed our vision and

mission.

work load in tremendous way and help us to improve our better

performance. It help us to present the data in a very short way to

analyzes and present it. There are many formulas mentioned below

help us to create our performance.

Please find below some great formulas which help us to count our daily

wages and % of performance..

also numbers within the list of arguments. Use COUNT to get the

number of entries in a number field that's in a range or array of

numbers.

COUNTBLANK - Counts empty cells in a specified range of cells.

EXPONDIST - Returns the exponential distribution. Use

EXPONDIST to model the time between events, such as how long

an automated bank teller takes to deliver cash. For example, you

can use EXPONDIST to determine the probability that the

process takes at most 1 minute.

Like this there are many other ways like graphical presentation and

other data management issues we use a the statistics in a very

deep way.

Since the advent of the internet, statistics have become important for

online business operators. Whether it be measuring search engine

traffic, assessing product conversion or determining which paid ads are

working, statistics provide the necessary data in a meaningful way to

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support strategic decision making. Without the use of statistics,

businesses could not calculate returns on investment and business

decision making would become a hit and miss affair.

trends and develop products that are in line with consumer

preferences. Without data to support product development,

organizations would have no way of determining changing consumer

preferences and tastes. With competing demands for capital and labor,

organizations rely on data to determine how to best make use of

exiting resources and plan for future requirements. Managers rely on

monthly and quarterly statistics to adjust business variables to

improve overall performance.

market. Data is compiled into useful reports for the purposes of

determining consumer preferences, assessing purchasing habits and

analyzing the motivation for buying behavior. Companies rely on this

feedback to narrow down criteria to create unique selling propositions

and build marketing campaigns. Without this data, companies would

face difficulties in providing goods and services that solve community

and organizational problems.

Question 2

Discuss the limitations of using correlation as an analytical

technique. How does it compare to regression analysis?

assumptions made with respect to the nature of data to be correlated

and on understanding the principles of forming this index of

association. Correlation is a central measure within the general linear

model of statistics. It can be employed for measurement of

relationships in countless applied settings. However, in situations

where its assumptions are violated, correlation becomes inadequate to

explain a given relationship. These assumptions mandate that the

distributions of both variables related by the coefficient of correlation

should be normal and that the scatter-plots should be linear and

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homoscedastic. Referring to diagrams of data typical of various

magnitudes of the coefficient correlation,

one may notice that the assumption of linearity pertains to the main

axis of the ellipse enclosing the data points. Its main axis should be

approximately linear. The assumption of homoscedascity pertains to

the secondary axis of this ellipse. The width of the ellipse should be

approximately equal to the length of the secondary axis. To the extent

that any of these assumptions are violated, the coefficient of

correlation does not correctly reflect the relationship.

both deal with relationships among variables. The correlation

coefficient is a measure of linear association between two

variables. Values of the correlation coefficient are always

between -1 and +1. A correlation coefficient of +1 indicates that

two variables are perfectly related in a positive linear sense; a

correlation coefficient of -1 indicates that two variables are

perfectly related in a negative linear sense, and a correlation

coefficient of 0 indicates that there is no linear relationship

between the two variables. For simple linear regression, the

sample correlation coefficient is the square root of the coefficient

of determination, with the sign of the correlation coefficient

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being the same as the sign of b1, the coefficient of x1 in the

estimated regression equation.

establishing cause-and-effect relationships. They can indicate only how

or to what extent variables are associated with each other. The

correlation coefficient measures only the degree of linear association

between two variables. Any conclusions about a cause-and-effect

relationship must be based on the judgment of the analyst.

Question 3

terms, explain the possible components of time-series data.

average, (double, triple) exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins, Holt-

Winters, ARMA, ARIMA ... Those models typically handle neither multi-

series nor tags or events; yet simplicity is king is many situations.

Don’t discard moving average just because it looks too simple to be

good.

Then, for more advanced models, I'd rather speak of approaches than

models. Indeed, the more complex the model, the more latitude is left

to the mathematician to tweak in subtle ways the behavior of the

forecasting model.

especially useful in the context of many areas where we exploit

correlations between time-series. It’s also useful in order to deal with

tags and events.

become incredibly popular those days. Although, as far time-series are

concerned, it’s rather Support Vector Regression (SVR) that is the

most useful for us. As a minor drawback, SVM and SVR are typically

quite expensive in terms of raw processing power.

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The mixture / boosting approach: mixing loads of simple predictors

in order in improve the overall forecast works well. The combination of

large number of simple predictors can be used to reflect really complex

behaviors.

genetic programming and other evaluative / adaptive approaches.

Those approaches are powerful but also notoriously known for their

intrinsic sensibility to many tuning parameters.

evolution. New models get put in production every month or so. This

list isn’t definitive and cloud computing is actually creating a lot of

opportunities for us to push models that were just too expensive in the

past.

1. Secular trend

2. Seasonal variation

3. Cyclical variation

4. Irregular variation

downward trend for a period of years and this may be due to factors

like increase in population,change in technological progress ,large

scale shift in consumers demands,etc.For example, population

increases over a period of time, price increases over a period of years,

production of goods on the capital market of the country increases

over a period of years. These are the examples of upward trend. The

sales of a commodity may decrease over a period of time because of

better products coming to the market. This is an example of declining

trend or downward trend. The increase or decrease in the movements

of a time series is called Secular trend.

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Seasonal variation: Seasonal variations are short-term fluctuation in a

time series which occur periodically in a year. This continues to repeat

year after year. The major factors that are responsible for the

repetitive pattern of seasonal variations are weather conditions and

customs of people. More woolen clothes are sold in winter than in the

season of summer .Regardless of the trend we can observe that in

each year more ice creams are sold in summer and very little in winter

season. The sales in the departmental stores are more during festive

seasons that in the normal days.

downward movements in a time series but the period of cycle is

greater than a year. Also these variations are not regular as seasonal

variation. There are different types of cycles of varying in length and

size. The ups and downs in business activities are the effects of cyclical

variation. A business cycle showing these oscillatory movements has

to pass through four phases-prosperity, recession, depression and

recovery. In a business, these four phases are completed by passing

one to another in this order.

that are short in duration, erratic in nature and follow no regularity in

the occurrence pattern. These variations are also referred to as

residual variations since by definition they represent what is left out in

a time series after trend, cyclical and seasonal variations. Irregular

fluctuations results due to the occurrence of unforeseen events like

floods, earthquakes, wars, famines, etc.

Question 4

collecting data from MBA aspirants.

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* How do you plan to use your degree?

short period of time?

* Do you believe the MBA can take you on your target stage.

MBA aspirants.

Question 5

department for Majeed Al Futtaim Najm Card Collections daily

recoveries on day wise.

days and above dues.

basis.

First left hand row presenting the total team members for

collections process.

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Allocation – This column shows how many accounts allocated to

each team team player with the value.

Target Forward Flow – The next column presenting how much flow

they allowed to forward for next level.

Current Forward Flow – the third column showing how much flow

they currently sitting on.

customers has paid their total dues.

AED Count AED Count % AED Count % AED %

ALI 2,353,645 323 188,292 26 8% 171,210 28 7.27% 936,236 39.8%

HEBA 2,376,276 324 190,102 26 8% 168,419 38 7.09% 964,271 40.6%

RAWAN 2,363,982 324 189,119 26 8% 160,402 34 6.79% 960,174 40.6%

PADDY 2,439,618 324 195,169 26 8% 168,098 34 6.89% 871,802 35.7%

SYED 2,401,395 324 192,112 26 8% 246,538 42 10.27% 975,266 40.6%

PAID 5,573,541 857 0 0 0% 0 0 0.00% 3,700,255 66.4%

100%

80% PAID

SYED

60%

PADDY

RAWAN

40%

HEBA

20% ALI

0%

AED Count AED Count % AED Count % AED %

Flow Flow

performance and keeping the data update for audit purpose.

10

To create this report we are using many statistical formulas behind on

row sheets which result as above format.

Question 6

Mode no doubt possesses the merit of being the most popular item of

a series and has also the advantage of easy calculation and common

understandability yet its drawbacks are too many to be set off against

these merits. Mean is simple in calculation, its value is definite and can

be easily determined. It is amenable to algebraic treatment and is

usually not affected much by fluctuations of sampling. Mode is hardly

suitable for most of the elementary studies as it is correctly

determined only by curve-fitting which is an extremely difficult

process. It is unrepresentative in many cases, and is not based on all

the observations of a series. Thus, of these two averages, mean has

definite advantages over mode, though there may be some cases

where mode may have preference over mean. Mode has its own

importance and it may be the reason for giving its value along with

mean but it should be clearly understood that mode cannot replace

mean and for that matter neither can median do so. However, it

should not be taken to mean that mode is superficial averages and

have no independent virtues. There are certain fields in which mode

may give better result that the mean, but such cases are few and the

universality of mean cannot be challenged on account of these cases.

Question 7

Standard Deviation

The standard deviation is kind of the "mean of the mean," and often

can help you find the story behind the data. To understand this

concept, it can help to learn about what statisticians call normal

distribution of data.

of data are close to the "average," while relatively few examples tend

to one extreme or the other.

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Let's say you are writing a story about nutrition. You need to look at

people's typical daily calorie consumption. Like most data, the

numbers for people's typical consumption probably will turn out to be

normally distributed. That is, for most people, their consumption will

be close to the mean, while fewer people eat a lot more or a lot less

than the mean.

When you think about it, that's just common sense. Not that many

people are getting by on a single serving of kelp and rice. Or on eight

meals of steak and milkshakes. Most people lie somewhere in

between.

Interquartile Range

That is, it is an alternative to the standard deviation. The

interquartile range is less affected by extremes than the

standard deviation. It is the measure of scale used by the box

plot.

Mean difference

talk about an average we usually are referring to mean. The mean is

simply the sum of the values divided by total numbers of items in set.

The result is referred to as the arithmetic mean. Sometime it is most

useful to give more weighting to certain data points, in which case the

result is called the weighted arithmetic mean.

is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or

standard deviation. It thus behaves better with distributions without a

mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.

outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard

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deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so on average,

large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can

heavily influence it. In the MAD, the magnitude of the distances of a

small number of outliers is irrelevant.

distribution, it is often found to be more convenient to use the sample

mean absolute deviation

Question 8

of Index numbers.

physical production.

is comparatively now. Certain important advances have been made in

this art. More and more data have been discovered and utilized so that

the more recently constructed index rest upon a much broader factual

basis than the earlier. Certain pitfalls in the mathematics mechanics of

index number construction have been recognized and to some extent

avoided.

requisition for the construction of reliable index numbers is the

availability of complete and accurate data. Complete coverage of all

data, although preferable, may not be absolutely necessary, but at

least a large enough sample must be obtained to be representative of

the type of physical production being measured.

13

At first the indexes were constructed only on annual basis, but shortly

the time interval reduced to a monthly basis and weekly index

comparable within themselves, the constitute data are adjusted for

sensational variation and for the difference in the working numbers of

day.

Yet in spite of the progress has been made, their remain so many

problems and limitation.

Reference Page

Question 1

→ http://www.bu.edu/stat/undergraduate-program-information/why-study-statistics

→ http://www.stat.mq.edu.au/information_for/career/why_study_statistics/

→ http://ezinearticles.com/?Using-Statistics-To-Improve-And-Measure-Business-

Performance&id=744164

Question 2

→ http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/glossary/correlation.html

Question 3

→ http://wwwjas-style.blogspot.com/2008/12/components-of-time-series.html

→ http://blog.lokad.com/journal/2009/7/7/favorite-forecasting-models.html

Question 4

→ http://www.expertcollective.com/interview-mba/mba-interview-questions.html

14

Question 5

Office Chart data provided by our management Majid Al Futtaim Jcb Najm card.

Question 6

http://www.mean/mode/comparison/tutore.

Question 7

http://www.robertniles.com/stats/stdev.shtml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_absolute_deviation

Question 8

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2278841

15

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