How climate is changing

The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires, longer
periods of drought in some regions and an increase in the number, duration and intensity of
tropical storms. Credit: Left - Mellimage/Shutterstock.com, center - Montree
Hanlue/Shutterstock.com.

Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have
shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and
trees are flowering sooner.

Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global climate change are now
occurring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves.

Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of
climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to
come, largely due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more than 1,300 scientists from the United
States and other countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over
the next century.

According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change effects on individual regions will vary over
time and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to mitigate or adapt to
change.

The IPCC predicts that increases in global mean temperature of less than 1.8 to 5.4 degrees
Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) above 1990 levels will produce beneficial impacts in some
regions and harmful ones in others. Net annual costs will increase over time as global
temperatures increase.

"Taken as a whole," the IPCC states, "the range of published evidence indicates that the net
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damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time."

Future effects
 Some of the long-term effects of global climate change in the United States are as follows,
according to the Third and Fourth National Climate Assessment Reports:

Change will continue through this century and beyond

Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude
of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat-
trapping gases emitted globally, and how sensitive the Earth’s climate is to those emissions.
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Temperatures will continue to rise

Because human-induced warming is superimposed on a naturally varying climate, the

temperature rise has not been, and will not be, uniform or smooth across the country or over
time.
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Frost-free season (and growing season) will lengthen

The length of the frost-free season (and the corresponding growing season) has been
increasing nationally since the 1980s, with the largest increases occurring in the western United
States, affecting ecosystems and agriculture. Across the United States, the growing season is
projected to continue to lengthen.

In a future in which heat-trapping gas emissions continue to grow, increases of a month or more
in the lengths of the frost-free and growing seasons are projected across most of the U.S. by the
end of the century, with slightly smaller increases in the northern Great Plains. The largest
increases in the frost-free season (more than eight weeks) are projected for the western U.S.,
particularly in high elevation and coastal areas. The increases will be considerably smaller if
heat-trapping gas emissions are reduced.
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 Changes in precipitation patterns

Average U.S. precipitation has increased since 1900, but some areas have had increases
greater than the national average, and some areas have had decreases. More winter and spring
precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this
century.

Projections of future climate over the U.S. suggest that the recent trend towards increased
heavy precipitation events will continue. This trend is projected to occur even in regions where
total precipitation is expected to decrease, such as the Southwest.
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More droughts and heat waves

Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves (periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to
weeks) everywhere are projected to become more intense, and cold waves less intense
everywhere.

Summer temperatures are projected to continue rising, and a reduction of soil moisture, which
exacerbates heat waves, is projected for much of the western and central U.S. in summer. By
the end of this century, what have been once-in-20-year extreme heat days (one-day events)
are projected to occur every two or three years over most of the nation.
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Hurricanes will become stronger and more intense

The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of
the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The
relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain.
Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate
continues to warm.
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Sea level will rise 1-4 feet by 2100

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Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in 1880. It is
projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100. This is the result of added water from melting land
ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms.

In the next several decades, storm surges and high tides could combine with sea level rise and
land subsidence to further increase flooding in many regions. Sea level rise will continue past
2100 because the oceans take a very long time to respond to warmer conditions at the Earth’s
surface. Ocean waters will therefore continue to warm and sea level will continue to rise for
many centuries at rates equal to or higher than those of the current century.
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Arctic likely to become ice-free

The Arctic Ocean is expected to become essentially ice free in summer before mid-century.
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U.S. regional effects

Below are some of the impacts that are currently visible throughout the U.S. and will continue to
affect these regions, according to the Third3 and Fourth4 National Climate Assessment Reports,
released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program:

Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours and sea level rise pose growing challenges to many
aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries and ecosystems will be
increasingly compromised. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change
into their planning.

Northwest. Changes in the timing of streamflow reduce water supplies for competing demands.
Sea level rise, erosion, inundation, risks to infrastructure and increasing ocean acidity pose
major threats. Increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks and tree diseases are causing widespread
tree die-off.

Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region’s economy
and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture and more. Decreased
water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.
Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours and flooding will affect infrastructure, health,
agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also
exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes.

Southwest. Increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have
increased wildfires. Declining water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities
due to heat, and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns.

References

1. IPCC 2007, Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
p. 17.

2. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor,
S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
3. USGCRP 2014, Third Climate Assessment.
4. USGCRP 2017, Fourth Climate Assessment.

Global warming is already having significant and costly effects on our communities, our health,
and our climate.

Unless we take immediate action to reduce global warming emissions, these impacts will
continue to intensify, grow ever more costly and damaging, and increasingly affect the entire
planet — including you, your community, and your family.

Rising seas and increased coastal flooding

Average global sea level has increased eight inches since 1880, but is rising much faster on the U.S. East
Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Global warming is now accelerating the rate of sea level rise, increasing
flooding risks to low-lying communities and high-risk coastal properties whose development has
been encouraged by today's flood insurance system.

Learn more:
 Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for US Coastal Real Estate
 When Rising Seas Hit Home: Hard Choices Ahead for Hundreds of US Coastal Communities
 Causes of Sea Level Rise: What the Science Tells Us
 Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast
Communities over the Next 30 Years
 Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas
Longer and more damaging wildfire seasons

Wildfires are increasing and wildfire season is getting longer in the Western U.S. as temperatures rise.
Higher spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snow-melt result in forests that are hotter and
drier for longer periods of time, priming conditions for wildfires to ignite and spread.

Learn more:

 Playing with Fire: How Climate Change and Development Patterns Are Contributing to the Soaring Costs
of Western Wildfires
More destructive hurricanes

While hurricanes are a natural part of our climate system, recent research indicates that their destructive
power, or intensity, has been growing since the 1970s, particularly in the North Atlantic region.

Learn more:

 Hurricanes and climate change >

More frequent and intense heat waves

Dangerously hot weather is already occuring more frequently than it did 60 years ago—and scientists
expect heat waves to become more frequent and severe as global warming intensifies. This increase in
heat waves creates serious health risks, and can lead to heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and aggravate
existing medical conditions.

Learn more:

 Heat Waves and Climate Change: What the Science Tells Us about Extreme Heat Events
 Heat in the Heartland: 60 Years of Warming in the Midwest
Military bases at risk

Rising seas will increasingly flood many of our coastal military bases.

Learn more:
 The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas >
National landmarks at risk

The growing consequences of climate change are putting many of the country's most iconic and historic
sites at risk, from Ellis Island to the Everglades, Cape Canaveral to California's César Chávez National
Monument.

Learn more:

 National Landmarks at Risk: Rising Seas, Floods, and Wildfires Are Threatening the United States' Most
Cherished Historic Sites
Widespread forest death
in the Rocky Mountains

Tens of millions of trees have died in the Rocky Mountains over the past 15 years, victims of a climate-
driven triple assault of tree-killing insects, wildfires, and stress from heat and drought.

Learn more:

 Rocky Mountain Forests at Risk

Costly and growing health impacts

Climate change has significant implications for our health. Rising temperatures will likely lead
to increased air pollution, a longer and more intense allergy season, the spread of insect-borne diseases,
more frequent and dangerous heat waves, and heavier rainstorms and flooding. All of these changes pose
serious, and costly, risks to public health.

Learn more:

 Climate Change and Your Health

An increase in extreme weather events

Strong scientific evidence shows that global warming is increasing certain types of extreme weather
events, including heat waves, coastal flooding, extreme precipitation events, and more severe droughts.
Global warming also creates conditions that can lead to more powerful hurricanes.

Learn more:

 Infographic: Extreme Weather and Climate Change

Heavier precipitation and flooding
 As temperatures increase, more rain falls during the heaviest downpours, increasing the risk of flooding
events. Very heavy precipitation events, defined as the heaviest one percent of storms, now drop 67
percent more precipitation in the Northeast, 31 percent more in the Midwest and 15 percent more in the
Great Plains than they did 50 years ago.

More severe droughts in some areas

Climate change affects a variety of factors associated with drought and is likely to increase drought risk in
certain regions. As temperatures have warmed, the prevalence and duration of drought has increased in
the western U.S. and climate models unanimously project increased drought in the American Southwest.

Learn more:

 Causes of Drought: What's the Climate Connection?

Increased pressure on groundwater supplies

As the climate changes in response to global warming, longer and more severe droughts are projected for
the western US. The resulting dry conditions will increase the pressure on groundwater supplies as more
is pumped to meet demand even as less precipitation falls to replenish it. In California, water and
wastewater utilities have an opportunity to significantly increase clean energy in the state's water sector.

Growing risks to our electricity supply

Our aging electricity infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to the growing consequences of global
warming, including sea level rise, extreme heat, heightened wildfire risk, and drought and other water
supply issues.

Learn more:

 Lights Out? Storm Surge, Blackouts, and How Clean Energy Can Help >
Changing seasons

Spring arrives much earlier than it used to — 10 days earlier on average in the northern hemisphere.
Snow melts earlier. Reservoirs fill too early and water needs to be released for flood control. Vegetation
and soils dry out earlier, setting the stage for longer and more damaging wildfire seasons.

Melting ice

Temperatures are rising in the planet's polar regions, especially in the Arctic, and the vast majority of the
world's glaciers are melting faster than new snow and ice can replenish them. Scientists expect the rate of
melting to accelerate, with serious implications for future sea level rise.

Disruptions to food supplies

Rising temperatures and the accompanying impacts of global warming — including more frequent heat
waves, heavier precipitation in some regions, and more severe droughts in others — has significant
implications for crop and meat production. Global warming has the potential to seriously disrupt our food
supply, drive costs upward, and affect everything from coffee to cattle, from staple food crops to
the garden in your backyard.

Destruction of coral reefs

As global temperatures rise, so too do average sea surface temperatures. These elevated temperatures
cause long-term damage to coral reefs. Scientists have documented that sustained water temperatures of
as little as one degree Celsius above normal summer maxima can cause irreversible damage.

Plant and animal range shifts

A changing climate affects the range of plants and animals, changing their behavior and causing
disruptions up and down the food chain. The range of some warm-weather species will expand, while
those that depend on cooler environments will face shrinking habitats and potential extinction.

The potential for abrupt climate change

Scientists know that Earth's climate has changed abruptly in the past. Even though it is unlikely to occur
in the near future, global warming may increase the risk of such events. One of the most significant
potential mechanisms is a shift in an ocean circulation pattern known as thermohaline circulation, which
would have widespread consequences for Europe and the U.S. East Coast.

We Need Your Support

to Make Change Happen

We can reduce global warming emissions and ensure communities have the
resources they need to withstand the effects of climate change—but not without
you. Your generous support helps develop science-based solutions for a healthy,
safe, and sustainable future.