Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

www.elsevier.com/locate/tra

Urban density and energy consumption:

a new look at old statistics
a,1 b,2 a,*
Orit Mindali , Adi Raveh , Ilan Salomon
a
Department of Geography, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, 91905 Jerusalem, Israel
b
The Jerusalem School of Business Administration, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus,
91905 Jerusalem, Israel
Received 27 March 2003; received in revised form 30 September 2003; accepted 30 October 2003

Abstract

There is growing concern about the negative environmental and energy effects caused by transportation
systems and related land-use patterns. Travel and land-use are a function of one another, therefore it is
often hypothesized that changing urban structure can result in changes in energy consumption. A popular
view suggests that there is a strong negative correlation between urban density and energy consumption.
This implies that increasing density will result in a reduction in energy consumption [Cities and Automobile
Dependence: An International Sourcebook, Avebury Technical, Great Britain, 1989].
Using Co-Plot, an innovative multivariate statistical technique, this research crystallizes some of the
relationships between density and energy consumption in western cities. The method is applied on Newman
and KenworthyÕs data, leading to the conclusion that there is no direct impact of total urban density.
Instead several other relationships between energy consumption and density attributes can be identified.
Ó 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

1. Introduction

There is a growing concern about environmental impacts caused by transportation systems.

Rises in energy consumption and the emissions from the automobile are being considered the

*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +972-2-5883345; fax: +972-2-5883347.
E-mail addresses: mindali@pob.huji.ac.il (O. Mindali), msraveh@mscc.huji.ac.il (A. Raveh), msilans@mscc.
huji.ac.il (I. Salomon).
1
Tel.: +972-2-5883348; fax: +972-2-5883347.
2
Tel.: +972-2-5883216; fax: +972-2-5881341.

0965-8564/$ - see front matter Ó 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2003.10.004
144 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

main contributors to the problem. Studies on various aspects of energy consumption, as diverse as
technological improvements and planning and managing of the transportation system, were
conducted over the last 50 years. Since the 1970Õs, reducing energy consumption through, among
other means, urban structure, has become a major course of study.
Numerous studies have tested hypotheses regarding the relationship between urban structure,
especially high density, and energy consumption in the transportation system. Under these
hypotheses, raising urban densities is expected to lead to a decrease in energy consumption and
consequently enables a reduction in pollutant emission. In most developed countries, policy
makers and urban planners accept this insight with great enthusiasm as a solution for air quality
problems too. Many European countries promote the concept of the Compact City on the basis of
environmental arguments. This policy is a result of adopting the conventional wisdom that there
is a negative correlation between urban density and energy consumption in the transportation
system.
Introducing land-use planning policies in order to reduce energy consumption is a new
solution for an old problem. Achieving the goal of improving the urban environment through
land-use planning appears to be an important policy measure alongside other diverse demand
side policies.
This paper attempts to clarify the debate concerning the effects of land use intensification on
travel. It questions the almost unqualified conclusions of the work of Newman and Kenworthy.
The objectives of the current research are to identify the relationship between urban density and
transportation energy consumption, and to single out the conditions that need to exist simulta-
neously with an intensified urban land-use, thus enabling the reduction of energy consumption.
This research seeks to answer the question of whether or not building a more compact city will
reduce transportation energy consumption (sufficient condition). Or, alternatively, whether a
compact city creates urban, transportation and social conditions that must be utilized (necessary
conditions) in order to make the reduction in energy consumption possible.
On the methodological level this study attempts to question the basis of this relationship
through the use of multivariate analysis tools. The present study analyzes and re-interprets
Newman and KenworthyÕs (1989) data cited in Cities and Automobile Dependence: A Source Book.
A relatively new multivariate statistical method known as ÔCo-PlotÕ is employed. Where most
multivariate analysis methods focus on either variables (e.g. factor analysis, principal component
analysis, multidimensional scaling (MDS)) or observations (e.g. regression, cluster analysis), the
proposed method analyses observations and variables simultaneously (Lipshitz and Raveh, 1998).
In addition, the foremost advantage of the ÔCo-PlotÕ technique is its ability to portray a visuali-
zation of the data. The final product of the ÔCo-PlotÕ analysis is a two dimensional ‘‘map’’ which
provides three graphical results: similarity between observations by the composite of all variables
involved, the structure of correlation among the variables and the mutual relationships between
the observations and variables.
This research highlights the concept of high density and mixed land-use policy as a possible
tool for reducing automobile dependence in urban areas. The paper begins with a review of
the literature regarding the relationship between land-use and transportation, and land-use
policy as a demand management tool. It then clarifies the conceptual model and the ÔCo-PlotÕ
technique. Finally the paper discusses the results of the ÔCo-PlotÕ technique in terms of land-use
policy.
 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162 145

2. Review of the literature

2.1. Land-use, urban transportation and the environment

Understanding the relationship between urban density and transportation energy consumption
requires comprehension of the seemingly correlated urban transportation and the environment.
Travel patterns and land-use are considered to be functions of one another. However, it is difficult
to describe their mutual influence in comparison to other forces affecting each of them separately.
The source of the problem derives from their both being time dependent. In the short run, the
direction of the influence is mostly from land-use to travel patterns; in the long run, however, the
transportation system, including the travel patterns, becomes the factor shaping land-use patterns
(Altshuler, 1979).
Understanding the connection between land-use and transportation can be promoted by
analysing the urban spatial structure. Spatial structure can be defined as a combination of land-
use formation, its densities and the spatial design of infrastructure such as transportation and
communication (Anderson et al., 1996). It can alternatively be characterized by three elements:
the urban form, the human interaction in the city and the organizing principles that define the
relationship between the two (Bourne, 1982). Either way, the urban spatial structure of a city
seems to have a significant influence on the transportation flows within its area; yet, it does not
determine them entirely.
Several distinct trends have occurred in urban areas since the introduction of the private car: an
outward expansion of the metropolitan boundary, a density decline in all forms of land-use, a
higher connectivity of transport networks, and mostly in peripheral suburbs, a segregation of
residential from other land-uses (Anderson et al., 1996).
The transportation systems have numerous negative impacts on the environment, with the
intensity of most of these effects being higher inside the urban area than in rural areas, due to the
concentration of infrastructures and activities in a relatively small area. These effects are mostly
negative externalities such as fragmentation of open space, production of wastes, noise, air, soil
and water pollution (Button, 1991; Priemus, 1995).
Policies aimed at ameliorating emissions range from technological improvements to efforts
directed at changing the demand for travel by means of travel demand management (Bae, 1993).
The United NationsÕ sponsored Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de
Janeiro (1992) focused on means to reduce CO2 emissions by reducing the vehicle-miles traveled
(VMT). Most recommended methods were based on the often implicit, hypothesis that levels of
urban transportation energy consumption are negatively correlated with urban density (Newman
and Kenworthy, 1989; Frank and Pivo, 1994; Cervero, 1996; Badoe and Miller, 2000). The main
proposal of returning to high residential densities and mixed land-use was accepted by the Rio
conference (Wegener, 1996).

2.2. Land-use policy as a demand management tool

Conventional wisdom asserts a strong correlation between urban density and transportation
energy consumption, which suggests that higher density generates lower VMT and therefore,
exhibits lower energy consumption (Newman and Kenworthy, 1989; Bagley and Mokhtarian,
146 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

1998; Van Der Waals, 2000). Policy makers and urban planners, in most developed countries,
have accepted this view as a solution for air quality problems with great enthusiasm. Many
European countries have promoted the concept of the Ôcompact cityÕ, which promotes high density
and mixed land-use, on the basis of environmental arguments (Breheny, 1995; Black, 1996).
Advocates of this approach present several attributes of the compact city. It reduces the con-
version of land from agricultural and other life supporting uses such as forests and wetland into
urban and transportation uses. In addition, it has a higher energetic efficiency relative to lower
densities. Urban sprawl at low densities also imposes economic and social hardships on lower
socio-economic groups (Altshuler, 1979; Williams, 1999; Burton, 2000).
One of the most cited sources concerning this high-density theme is Newman and KenworthyÕs
Cities and Automobile Dependence (1989). Their research analyzes 32 major cities in four conti-
nents, finding a negative correlation between urban density and the annual gasoline use per capita.
This is considered to be the most important finding of their research (as shown in Fig. 1). This
finding suggests that strong policies which promote the planning and development of more
compact cities should be given high priority.

Fig. 1. Gasoline use per capita versus urban density (1980), (Source: Newman and Kenworthy, 1989).
 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162 147

The European Green Paper on the urban environment (1990) displays this hypothesis as a
recommendation: ‘‘. . . We therefore need a fundamental review of the principles on which town
planning practice has been based. Strategies which emphasize mixed use and denser development
are more likely to result in people living closer to work places and the services they require for
everyday life. The car can then become an option rather then a necessity’’ (Wegener, 1996, p. 104).
The promotion of policies designed to reduce urban environmental problems through land-use
planning raises some questions regarding the feasibility of such an approach. The problem
originates from the fact that it is almost impossible to recommend a major change of long
established practice that promotes dispersal into the suburbs merely due to one criterion. The
urban system is not only the result of the plannersÕ script, but also a mixture of location decisions
of firms and households as well as the interaction between these decisions and the transportation
system. Any change in urban structure is likely to generate significant changes in the residentsÕ life
styles. There seems to be no significant basis to suggest that in light of current transport tech-
nology and costs households will desire to return to higher densities. Using land-use planning as a
policy measure to change energy consumption is not an obvious method (Crane and Crepeau,
1998).

2.2.1. The logic of density

The concept underlying the planning for compact cities originates from the perception that
reversing urban structure from low density to an urban form that dominated 60 years ago, is
feasible. This, it is often argued, would re-embrace the usage of public transportation, walking
and cycling (Fulford, 1996). Planning for high density has two main goals in the context of
transport energy consumption:

1. Reducing trip length and total mobility by concentrating residential, employment and services
areas (Cervero, 1988).
2. Changing the modal split to reduce the share of the private car use in relation to public trans-
portation, walking and cycling (Barrett, 1996).

The conclusion of Newman and KenworthyÕs research is that differences in variables such as
fuel price and the efficiency of the vehicle fleet explain 40% of the energy consumption in
the transportation system, while the remaining 60% of the energy consumption can be attrib-
uted to the level of urban density. The obvious recommendation is to favor policies promoting
higher densities and public transportation in order to enable a reduction in energy consumption.
Criticism of Newman and KenworthyÕs research varies widely. One line of criticism focuses on
the method of analysis and therefore questions the applicability of their conclusion. Illustrating
this line of criticism is the assertion that not using a multivariate analysis and not taking certain
variables such as the householdÕs income and gasoline price into account can affect the research
results (Gomez-Ibanez, 1991; H€ ojer and Matson, 2000). Another major line of criticism which can
be divided into two key elements is directed at the potency of gaining any improvements from
applying this planning policy. The first element is the argument that planning policy for higher
densities and large investments in public transportation will not make a difference (Altshuler,
1979; Gordon and Richardson, 1997) as exemplified by the failure of major public transportation
projects in North America (e.g. Philadelphia and Toronto). The second element is the feasibility
148 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

of ‘‘compacting’’ the city, which is centered on the notion that too many households prefer not to
live in a high density (Breheny, 1997). One must also mention the viewpoint that asserts problems
with predicting outcomes of land use intensification. According to this point of view, land use
intensification may increase or decrease the number of car trips as well as VMT depending on the
manner in which it is implemented, the congestion induced and the purpose of the trips (Boarnet
and Crane, 2001). Supporters of city intensification, on the other hand, assume that the popu-
lation is ready to move into denser areas. The situation in the urban area displays two con-
tradicting trends that are supported by different groups. Governments encourage urban
intensification, whereas dwellings-seeking households, to a great extent, prefer larger personal
urban space. It seems that the market for high density housing includes, among others, low in-
come population groups, and fewer households of the multicar population, which are the target
audience for this policy. Many studies have tried to analyze the role of economic, technical and
social factors in location behavior, in order to estimate the feasibility of planning denser urban
areas.
The undesirable scenario predicts that those who can will leave the city whereas the disad-
vantaged population will be left behind (Williams et al., 1996). Similarly, firms will change
location to zones or cities that are less expensive and less limiting (Knight, 1996; Breheny, 1997).
The technical and economic aspects of dense planning policy are interwind with one another,
whereas the basis for implementing this policy depends on the political situation. The technical
problem is that most of the areas which can be re-built in the urban area are not attractive.
There is no demand for housing in most of these areas, because of their location in old regions
of the city. Attractive land for re-building in the city is scarce and expensive for housing.
Achieving the aim of re-building the city center for housing depends not only on political
intervention through proclamations, but also on financial aid such as subsidies (Lever, 1993;
Breheny, 1997).

2.2.2. The logic of mixed land-use

In North America and many other developed countries, a second major policy initiative is
planning for higher density in conjunction with planning for mixed land-use (Black, 1996).
Numerous hypotheses which suggest that mixed land-use is likely to reduce trip length, and
change the distribution of trips during the day, have been proposed. A major behavioral change in
modal split, diverting trips from the private car to public transportation and walking have also
been hypothesized (Cervero, 1996). Planning for mixed land-use is also known as neo-traditional
design or neo-traditional neighborhood (Fig. 2). Underlying this concept is the (often nostalgic)
view of regeneration of the pre-World War II neighborhoods. The neo-traditional pattern is
characterized by mixed land-use, high connectivity of roads, sidewalks and lanes supporting
pedestrians as well as bicyclists (McNally and Ryan, 1993; Filion, 2001). Neo-traditional Design is
considered to be an innovative planning policy for metropolitan areas. It enables high density at
the micro level (e.g. community, neighborhood), but does not necessitate a change in the macro
(e.g. city, metropolis) level (Gordon and Richardson, 1997). This design enables the formation of
compact neighborhoods, which are Ôpedestrian friendlyÕ and creates compatibility between resi-
dence and employment. The compatibility is obtained from the development of commerce, offices
and industrial area according to the number of dwellings in the neighborhood. The remaining
area is assigned for development of parks and open space for leisure and recreation uses in the
 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162 149

Fig. 2. Neo-traditional grid design (Source: Crane, 1998).

immediate surroundings (Ewing, 1997). The proximity of the residence to employment, service
and recreation areas serves as a compensation for the relative remoteness from main activity
centers. The reduction in the energy consumption of the transportation system is one of the main
advantages referred to in mixed land-use planning policy. The reduction is obtained from the
switch to trip chaining and the shortening of trip length (Cervero, 1988). With similarity to high
density planning, the latent assumption is that the population will change their travel behavior
and their location decision-making in regard to their employment and residence. Skeptics, how-
ever, point out that the desired change in travel behavior is not guaranteed. The change might not
be in direction of a reduction in trip length, but towards an increase; it depends on the preference
and behavior of the population (Kitamura et al., 1997; Crane, 1998).

2.2.3. Priority to public transportation

The trend characterizing urban transportation system in the 20th century is the increasing
preference for and use of private cars, in lieu of public transportation, walking and cycling
(OECD & ECMT, 1995; Wootton, 1999). The substantial growth of investments in public
transportation stems from this trend and from the broad agreement that the origin of the urban
transportation problem is the private car, with its externalities both in the short and long term.
(Salomon et al., 1997). The purpose of giving priority to public transportation, whether rail or
bus, is to shift passengers from private cars to more environmentally friendly travel modes. This
shift is supposed to be achieved by creating an attractive and competitive public transportation
system (Feitelson et al., 1998).
Providing priority to public transportation is viewed as one way to supply an alternative form
of mobility to the private car and therefore reduce energy consumption. The requisite of achieving
high occupancy rates is supposed to be achieved through developing public transportation as a
complement to the intensification of land-use policy (Steiner, 1994; Schimek, 1996). The literature
provides many recommendations regarding designs to support the land-use public transportation
interaction. These include planning employment centers with a high workforce density to enable
the supply of attractive public transportation for commuters, who are the principal users of public
150 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

transportation (Webster and Bly, 1987; Frank and Pivo, 1994). A different suggestion encourages
planning a radial orientation. The radial city is characterized by a low connectivity level, offering
attractive public transportation along the major corridors. Other studies oppose planning for
small cities, which encourages long journeys and reduces the level of service of public transpor-
tation (Mogridge, 1985). Transit Oriented Districts (TOD) is another method planners use for
linking between land-use planning and public transportation. TODÕs are suggested to be the basis
for new, mostly suburban development. The TODÕs ‘‘heart’’ is usually a regional railway or other
main roads, which is surrounded by high-density development near the stations. This planning
method promotes walking and cycling in the TOD area and using public transportation outside
the TOD (Giuliano, 1992).
A major difficulty in implementing theory into practice is the problem in the existing land-use
pattern. The main obstacle is the limited free space available for developing. Some solutions
suggest using the urban Ôthird dimensionÕ-air and subterranean space, shifting infrastructure from
private to public use, or providing additional infrastructure, causing additional environmental
problems such as more noise and pollution in close vicinity to residences (Nijkamp and Rienstra,
1996).

2.2.4. Priority to non-motorized modes of transport

The underlying goal of providing priority to non-motorized modes such as walking and cycling
is to reduce energy consumption (Plane, 1995). Policy makers propose this course to support the
fast growing, yet small, demand for these modes which replace the private car in dense urban
areas as in The Netherlands or Germany. The use of walking and cycling has a potential role of
replacing motorized travel especially in dense areas where it can be used as a mode of travel for
different household chores and even for commuting (Dunphy and Fisher, 1996).
The development of bike routes on which bicycle and pedestrian travel are encouraged while
the use of the private car is discouraged, is the basis for enabling the use of non-motorized modes
of travel. The attractiveness of a bike network depends on whether it provides direct routes free of
conflict with motorized vehicles (Plane, 1995). Avoidance of planning and developing infra-
structure that mainly supports the use of the private car is often recommended together with
intensification and mixing of land-use (Huwer, 2000). Non-motorized travel is best viewed not as
a substitute for but as a complementary mode of travel together with public transportation
(Seaton, 2000).

3. Land-use–energy consumption relationship: a conceptual model

The set of the interactions regarding energy consumption in the urban area seems to be a
complex one. Social, urban structure, and transportation factors seem to influence the level of
energy consumption in the transportation system. This complexity derives from the mutual
influence that the different factors have on each other and from their joint effect on the con-
sumption of energy. The problem of assessing the reciprocal relationship between these factors,
affects the possibility of determining their effect on policy measures.
The basic hypothesis policy makers hold on to is that land-use policy can change the level of
energy consumption. The change depends on modifications in mode choice and on the level of trip
 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162 151

efficiency. Land-use policy can affect two dimensions in this context: (1) intensification of land-use
towards higher densities, or a decrease in density, both residential and employment and (2) land-
use policy can also involve changes in land-use mix. A third possibility is a combination of the
previous two; land-use policy can involve both the intensification of the city and mixed land-use,
commonly known as Ôthe compact cityÕ. Fig. 3 illustrates the research hypotheses regarding
changes in the level of energy consumption.
Each stage of the conceptual model consists of a limiting factor. Each factor determines the
direction of the change in energy consumption. These factors are both social and policy factors.
The social factors represent (1) the willingness of the population to accept high levels of density.
This is grasped as the factor preventing the compact city from being feasible. (2) The social-
economic status of the population. The target is to influence non-captive users of transportation,
since the goal is to generate a change in modal split from the private car to public transportation
and non-motorized modes. (3) Compatibility of employment supply. A non-compatible planning
of mixed land-use can result in higher values of vehicle kilometers traveled, due to the need of the
population to execute the necessary activities that may be located in further areas.
The policy factor represents the land-use policy regarding mix patterns and density, and the
location in which it is applied. The policy can also refer to infrastructure investments and

Land Use Policy

Density
(urban, outer, inner) Land Use Mix
residence employment

population
acceptance of
density level Compatibility of
employment and
population
infrastructure
investments

attractive public
transportation

Trip efficiency
Change in Mode Choice
Trip Trip
Length Chaining
walking public private car
/cycling transportation

Energy Consumption

Fig. 3. Conceptual model of the set of factors influencing urban transportation energy consumption.
152 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

investments in public transportation. This model does not include telecommunications in light of
the minor role predicted for it as a substitution for the existing travel patterns (Mokhtarian and
Salomon, 1997).

4. Methodology

This research deals with the influence of land-use (density and mix) on energy consumption in
the transportation system. The research does not attempt to analyze the effects of land-use policy
on other environmental factors such as total urban energy consumption, equity, exploitation of
open space etc. The focus on energy consumption stems from the presumptively strong correlation
between high density and air quality in the urban area. The research seeks the urban, transpor-
tation and social conditions that contributes to the different levels of energy consumption in the
developed world.

Table 1
Cities
1. Adelaide
2. Amsterdam
3. Boston
4. Brisbane
5. Brussels
6. Chicago
7. Copenhagen
8. Denver
9. Detroit
10. Frankfurt
11. Hamburg
12. Hong Kong
13. Houston
14. London
15. Los Angels
16. Melbourne
17. Munich
18. New York
19. Paris
20. Perth
21. Phoenix
22. San Fran
23. Singapore
24. Stockholm
25. Sydney
26. Tokyo
27. Toronto
28. Vienna
29. Washington
30. West Berlin
31. Zurich
 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162 153

Table 2
Variables encoding
Variable no. Variable
1. Urban density
2. Employment density
3. Outer area density
4. Outer area employment
5. Inner area density
6. Inner area employment
7. Total vehicle/1000 people
8. Passenger cars/1000 people
9. Per capita car passenger km
10. Per capita public transportation passenger km
11 Proportion of passenger km on public transportation
12. Proportion pf workers using public transportation
13 Proportion of workers using private transportation
14. Proportion of workers using foot or bicycle
15. Length of road per person
16. Parking places/1000 CBD workers
17. Total vehicles per km of road
18. CBD density (person/ha)
19. Proportion of population in CBD (%)
20. Proportion of jobs in CBD (%)
21. Vehicle km per person (total public transportation)
22. Passenger trips per person (total public transportation)
23. Passenger trips per vehicle (buses)
24. Avg. speed of public transportation (total)
25. Proportion public transport passenger km (on train)
26. Total energy use/person (MJ)

The research uses data cited by Newman and KenworthyÕs (1989) study. The present research
analyzes 31 cities from North America, Europe and Australia (Table 1) using 26 variables rep-
resenting urban and transportation attributes (Table 2). The usage of this data permits a direct
criticism of the perception that there is a correlation between urban density and energy con-
sumption. There are two main problems concerning the validity of this data. The first is related to
the age of the data (1980). This may impose some restrictions on the ability to draw conclusion,
given the dynamics of TDM policies. The second problem stems from issues related to the data
collection instrument. The original data was collected through a questionnaire sent to transpor-
tation professionals in a non-representative sample of cities. This may result in obtaining data
which is inconsistent in definitions (e.g. what constitutes an inner city?) or in quality of the data in
cities. The respondents were requested to provide detailed data for 1980, as well as for 1970 and
1960. Such a request can hardly be fulfilled.
The current paper focuses only on cities in North America, Australia and Europe. Thus three
Asian and one European city were omitted, as it was assumed that they are either outliers or
belonging to very different groups in which transportation and land-use are operating under
different rules. Moscow was omitted because in 1980 it was still under Soviet regime, with a very
low automobile ownership level. Hong-Kong, Singapore and Tokyo where outliers (see Fig. 1)
154 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

and different rules apply there, in comparison to western countries. The study characterizes cities
into clusters and analyzes the factors creating these clusters. The statistical method employed in
the current research is the ÔCo-PlotÕ technique that enables the simultaneous study of observations
and variables (Raveh, 2000). ÔCo-PlotÕ creates a two dimensional ‘‘map’’ from which the con-
clusion about the relationship between variables can be deducted.

4.1. The Co-Plot technique

The Co-Plot graphical display technique is useful for visual inspection of data matrices such as
Yn
p . The sample units are exhibited as n points (e.g. n ¼ 31 cities in our study), and the variables
are exhibited as p arrows (in our study p ¼ 26) relative to the same axis and origin. Co-Plot maps
the observations (rows of a matrix) such that similar observations are closely located on the map.
In this manner, Co-Plot signifies that cities belonging to the same groups possess similar char-
acteristics and behave similarly. Each variable is represented individually by an arrow. Arrows
located in the same direction represent high positive correlation, those located in an opposite
direction (180°) represent high negative correlation, whereas arrows situated as a perpendicular
demonstrate no statistical correlation. Co-Plot enables the simultaneous study of observations
and variables for a set of data, hence its name. A measure of goodness-of-fit is computed and
associated for each variable separately.
Co-Plot is based on two graphs that are superimposed sequentially. The first graph maps the
rows by n points. The second graph is conditioned on the first one, and consists of p arrows
portrayed individually.
The main objective of the co-plot method is to obtain a graphic display presentation of the Yn
p
matrix of n, p-variate observation. It is appropriate to clear up the controversy in N&K data set
since it produces three results:

1. Similarity among observation (e.g. cities) by the composite of all variables involved. Hence
clusters of cities and/or outliers are presented clearly on all attributes (Fig. 4) rather than only
as two as in Fig. 1.
2. The structure of correlation among the variables. This enables revealing clusters of variables
e.g. similar to factor and/or principle components. For example variables 10, 11, 12, 14, and
24 have common direction in Fig. 4, which indicates that they are correlated variables.
3. The mutual relationship between the observations and the variables. This is not obtained by the
classical methods such as cluster analysis, factor analysis or multiple scaling.

The method is as follows: Co-Plot is based on the integration of mapping concepts with a
variant of regression analysis. It starts with a data matrix Yn
p of n rows and p columns; the rows
are p-variate observations and the columns are the variables. Co-Plot has four stages: two pre-
liminary treatments of the data matrix Yn
p and two subsequent stages.
Stage one: in order to treat the variables equally, we normalize Yn
p in the usual way into Zn
p .
The elements of matrix Zn
p are deviations from column means (Y :j ) divided by their standard
deviations (Sj ) as follows:
Zij ¼ ðYij  Y ij Þ=Sj :
 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162 155

Stage two: We choose a measure of dissimilarity Sik P 0 between
each pair of observations (rows
n
of Zn
p ). A symmetric n
n matrix (Sik ) is produced from the different pairs of observations.
2
Here we choose the city-block distance, that is, the sum of the absolute deviations, as a measure of
dissimilarity:
X p
Sik ¼ jZij  Zkj j P 0; ð1 6 i; k 6 nÞ: ð1Þ
j¼1

The subsequent two stages of Co-Plot yield two superimposed graphs.

Stage 3: in this stage the matrix (Sik ) is mapped by means of a MDS method. Thus, observations
are represented as n points Pi , i ¼ 1; . . . ; n, in an Euclidean space (of say, 2 dimensions). In the
following example, GuttmanÕs smallest space analysis (SSA) is chosen as a particular form of
objects (here n ¼ 31 cities). (For details for this technique see Guttman, 1968.) SSA uses the
coefficient of alienation H as a measure of goodness-of-fit. In summary for a two dimensional
space this stage yields 2n coordinates ðX1i ; X2i Þ, i ¼ 1; . . . ; n, where each row Z ¼ ðZi1 ; . . . ; Zip Þ is
mapped into a point in the two-dimensional space ðX1i ; X2i Þ.
Stage 4: in this stage p arrows ( X ej ; j ¼ 1; . . . ; P ) are drawn on the Euclidean space obtained in
Stage 3. Each variable j is represented by an arrow j emerging from the center of gravity of the
points pi . Each arrow X ej is chosen so that the correlation between the actual values of variable j
and their projections on the arrow is maximal. Therefore, arrows associated with highly corre-
lated variables point in about the same direction. As a result, the cosines of the angles between
these arrows are approximately proportional to the correlations between their associated vari-
ables.
The goodness-of-fit of Co-Plot is assessed by two types of measures, one for stage 3 and another
for stage 4. In stage 3, a general (single) coefficient of goodness-of-fit for the configuration of n
observations is obtained by MDS. For the SSA method, the coefficient of alienation H is used.
(For more details about H, see Raveh, 1986). In stage 4, P individual measures are obtained for
each of the p variables separately. These are the magnitudes of the p maximal correlations rj ,
j ¼ 1; . . . ; p, that measure the goodness-of-fit of the p regressions. The correlations rj , namely the
goodness-of-fit, can be helpful in deciding whether to eliminate (or add) variables. Variables that
do not fit the graphical display, namely, those that have low rj , should, in our opinion, be
eliminated. Therefore, there is no need to fit all the 2p subsets of variables as in other methods (like
regression) that have a general coefficient of goodness-of-fit: the higher the correlation rj the
better Xej represents the common direction and order of the projections of the n points along the
rotated axis X ej (arrow j).
On the limitations/assumptions of the co-plot:

1. The standardization enables to analyze variables on any scale simultaneously as long as they
are measured in at least ordered scale.
2. Enables to analyze data, namely, variables that highly correlated. It is possible to analyze set of
data when the number of observations is smaller than the number of variables.

In principle there is no limitations on the number of observations and/or variables. Practically,

when n > 200 and p > 50 it might be difficult to see details in the space diagram.
156 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

When goodness-of- fit is lower (h P 0:15 and/or maximal correlations
rjx 6 0:40) the visual
graphic might not reflects the real structure of the data, e.g. location of observations and direc-
tions of variables.

5. Results

A principal feature obtained from analyzing all 31 cities and 26 variables is the existence of
clusters. The cities are divided into two main clusters and to three Asian outliers which were
omitted. The clusters are quite evident: one of European cities, and the second of North American
and Australian cities. Also omitted were two North American cities, New York and Toronto,
which exhibit relationships much different from the cluster members. Employing the ÔCo-PlotÕ
technique in analyzing the clusters separately can yield the hypothesized results of investigating
the factors influencing energy consumption in the transportation system.
Analyzing the North American and Australian cities is especially important due to their sim-
ilarity in density, yet wide differences in energy consumption.
Fig. 4 demonstrates the ÔCo-PlotÕ product from the analysis of the North American and
Australian cluster. 3 The map does not include Toronto (demonstrating values as close to the
European cluster and New York), since they are extreme observations and significantly affect the
ability of exploring this set of data.
Fig. 4 illustrates the distribution of cities from the US (marked as squares) and from Australia
(marked as circles). The major distinction is a result of differences in the proportion of jobs in the
CBD (variable no. 20), in which the Australian cities reveal a much higher level in comparison to
US cities. Australian cities display relatively low energy consumption, which raises the question,
what is the cause of this difference.
Dividing the variables into three main groups helps in answering this question. The groups are
divided on the basis of the influence of the variables on the energy consumption variable (no. 26):
Positive correlation:

7. Total vehicles/1000 people.

8. Passenger cars/1000 people.
9. Per capita car passenger km.
13. Proportion of workers using private transportation.

Negative correlation:

6. Inner area employment.

10. Per capita public transportation passenger km.
11. Proportion of passenger km on public transportation.
12. Proportion of workers using public transportation
14. Proportion of workers using foot or bicycle.

3
Variables that are not included have a low measure of goodness-of-fit.
 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162 157

Fig. 4. Analysis of North America and AustraliaÕs cluster n ¼ 14, p ¼ 20 (h ¼ 0:10).

20. Proportion of jobs in CBD (%).

24. Avg. speed of public transportation (total).

No correlation:

1. Urban density.
2. Employment density.
3. Outer area density.
5. Inner area density.

As expected, the variables demonstrating a positive correlation with energy consumption are
those which relate to the use of the private car. The other two groups of variables provide
additional information. The variables demonstrating negative correlation reflect the importance
of public transportation and non-motorized modes of travel, as well as the importance of
strengthening the city center with concentration of employment. Variables which have no cor-
relation with energy consumption, such as urban density and employment density, suggest that it
is not accurate to consider all the urban area as one entity. The urban area can be divided into at
least three entities such as CBD, inner and outer areas (according to the definition in the data
collected). Each area and its characteristics have a different impact on energy consumption. In the
North American and Australian cities inner area density and outer area density do not show
correlation with energy consumption. The implication of these results is that density (not
including employment density) has no effect on energy consumption in the transportation system,
158 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

Fig. 5. Analysis of European cluster n ¼ 16, p ¼ 12 (h ¼ 0:13).

a result that is also evident from visual inspection of the North American and Australian cities in
Fig. 1.
Fig. 5 demonstrates the relationship between energy consumption and related variables in the
European context. 4; 5 The mapping of the European cluster demonstrates similarity to the pre-
vious cluster shown in Fig. 4, but it varies in several aspects of urban attributes.
This cluster can be divided also into three characterizing groups:
Positive correlation:

9. Per capita car pass km.

15. Length of road per person.

Negative correlation:

18. CBD density.

19. Proportion of population in CBD.
20. Proportion of jobs in CBD.
5. Inner area density.
4. Outer area employment.

4
Copenhagen and Paris are not included due to being outliers in the European cluster.
5
Variables that are not included have a low measure of goodness-of-fit.
 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162 159

16. Parking places/1000 CBD workers.

22. Passenger trips per person (total public transportation).
24. Avg. speed of public transportation.
25. Proportion public transport passenger km (on train).

No statistical correlation:

1. Urban density.
3. Outer area density.

The two clusters, Figs. 4 and 5, are similar in the variables which fall under the group of po-
sitive correlation and those with no correlation. However, the European cluster differs from the
previous one in the group of variables which are negatively correlated with energy consumption.
In the European cluster the outer area employment density, inner area density and CBD attributes
have a negative correlation to energy consumption. These results point to the possibility of
influencing energy consumption via land-use patterns (or planning) in the European cities cluster.
This does not imply that one can conclude that in European cities there is a correlation between
energy consumption and the general variables describing urban density and employment density,
since the analysis identified no statistical correlation of energy consumption with these variables;
as was the case in the North American and Australian cluster.

6. Conclusions

The negative impacts of (urban) transportation systems on air quality, noise, and energy
consumption are the basic motivation for studies aiming at innovative and effective remedies. The
current study is part of that stream. Specifically, it is part of the course of study seeking to reduce
energy consumption through land-use policy, but it does not assume that land-use policy is a
miraculous solution to cure the pollution and energy ills. The goal of this study is to sharpen our
knowledge/beliefs in the possibilities of influencing energy consumption by transportation
through means of land-use policy.
The choice of the often cited study by Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile
Dependence (1989) as the basis for this study, evolved from the need to adopt a critical view of
what is considered to be one of the main foundations to knowledge and beliefs regarding land-use/
transportation interactions. Using the Newman and Kenworthy data in a multivariate analysis
enables a direct response to both advocates and critics of their research conclusions.
The present research asserts that one cannot refer to the negative correlation between urban
density and energy consumption as a given. Yet, this conclusion does not imply that there is no
correlation between energy consumption and several aspects of density. Inner area and CBD
levels of employment density come out as producing the potential to reduce energy consumption.
The strong negative correlation between energy consumption and the level of use of public
transportation, and therefore positive correlation between the latter, and inner area and CBD
levels of employment emphasize the relative advantages of radial transit trips mainly for work
purposes.
160 O. Mindali et al. / Transportation Research Part A 38 (2004) 143–162

The major problem with Newman and KenworthyÕs recommendation lies in the difficulties
concerning strengthening the inner and CBD employment density due to market forces sup-
porting outward expansion to suburban and exurban periphery of employment. In the analyses of
US and Australian cities, the current research does not offer another recommendation regarding
land-use policy, whereas the European analysis results in a strong negative correlation between
energy consumption and outer area employment. This encourages the recommendation, from a
land-use planning perspective, of raising outer area employment density. This type of recom-
mendation combines the advantages of reducing energy consumption jointly with public and firms
preferences (market forces).
Although intensification of employment areas seems to have a negative effect on energy con-
sumption, the same cannot be concluded about the effect of population density. Outer area
density has no statistical correlation with energy consumption in either cluster. Outer area density
also does not correlate with usage of public transportation; consequently, it reflects no relative
advantage of public transportation. It seems that investing in outer area density, with the attempt
of changing modal split towards use of public transportation will not bear ‘‘fruit’’. Since cir-
cumferential trips provide an advantage to the private cars planning for mixed land-use in the
outer area can result in an increase of car passenger kilometer energy consumption. Mixed land-
use aims to generate proximity between employment and residence as a measure to promote
reduction in energy consumption, but if it is not planned and implemented in an orchestrated
procedure exact compatibility, it can result in the opposite outcome: raising energy consumption.
A major conclusion deduced from the current research is the importance of separating different
clusters in the process of analyzing data. Inner area density is another example for opposite
recommendation that should be concluded for each cluster separately. The European cluster
reveals a negative correlation, while the US and Australian cities showed no statistical correlation.
Yet another possible problem with the Newman and Kenworthy data analysis is related to the
quality of the data. The data collection method used by Newman and Kenworthy is subject to
inconsistencies due to different definitions used by the respondents and inaccuracies resulting from
an attempt to recollect data for a period 20 years earlier Simplification and generalization can
result in faulty, quie irrelevant recommendations. The conclusions of this present research are
limited since they rely on 1980s data, which is suspected as not being accurate and consistent, yet
it does stress that previous analyze of this data is partial. Strengthening these conclusions may be
possible through a dynamic analysis related to changes between 1960–1980 available in Newman
and Kenworthy (1989). This research does not pretend to change the theoretical basis of land-use
planning policy theory, but it asserts that the theoretical basis should be more detailed.

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