AREA OF INTREST

NULL HYPOTHESIS (H0) = THERE IS NO TREND IN RAINFALL

ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS(Ha) = THERE IS A TREND IN RAINFALL
SIZE OF SAMPLE = 15
TIME SERIES DATA - ANNUAL RAINFALL IN mm
DATE DATA - TIME IN YEARS
MEAN OF SAMPLE 1044.4667 YEAR K
STD DEV OF SAMPLE #NAME? YEAR J Ti/Tj
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE(ALPHA) = 5% 2001 900
2002 1000
2003 1110
2004 950
2005 968
2006 1121
2007 1080
2008 999
2009 876
2010 1234
2011 1312
2012 999
2013 876
2014 1020
2015 1222
TIE DIFF.

NO OF YEARS =
TIED VALUE OBSERVED , APPLY COORECTION
TOTAL CORRECTION
VAR(S)
Zs
Zs* FOR alpha =5%

CONCLUSION
THE VALUE OF Zs IS LESS THAN Zs*=1.96(TWO TAILED) OR
EXACT PROBABILITY CORRESPOND TO Zs IS =100 - AREA LEFT TO THE Zs
FROM Z TABLE AREA LEFT TO THE ZS VALUE = 51.8%
EXACT P VALUE IS = 48.2% WHICH IS GREATER THAN 0.025(Z ALPHA/2 OR Zs*)
MEANS THE RISK TO RJECTE H0 WHEN H0 IS TRUE IS 48.2 %> 2.5%
FAILS TO REJECT NULL HYPOTHISIS

THERE IS NO TREND IN RAINFALL

 MANN-KENDALL TEST ANALYS
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
900 1000 1110 950 968 1121 1080 999
100 210 50 68 221 180 99
110 -50 -32 121 80 -1
-160 -142 11 -30 -111
18 171 130 49
153 112 31
-41 -122
-81

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15
BSERVED , APPLY COORECTION
36
406.3333333333
0.0442986054
1.65 one tailed
1.96 two tailed
ST ANALYSIS
2009 2010 2001 2012 2013 2014 2015 POSITIVE NEGATIVE
876 1234 1312 999 876 1020 1222
-24 334 412 99 -24 120 322 12 2
-124 234 312 -1 -124 20 222 7 6
-234 124 202 -111 -234 -90 112 4 8
-74 284 362 49 -74 70 272 9 2
-92 266 344 31 -92 52 254 8 2
-245 113 191 -122 -245 -101 101 3 6
-204 154 232 -81 -204 -60 142 3 5
-123 235 313 0 -123 21 223 4 2
358 436 123 0 144 346 5 0
78 -235 -358 -214 -12 1 4
-313 -436 -292 -90 0 4
-123 21 223 2 1
144 346 2 0
202 1 0
SUM 61 42
0 0 0 1 1 0 0

S= 19