XYZ Insurance Company

Incurred Loss - Incremental

Accident Development Quarter

Quarter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Tail
2010-Q1 94 122 71 43 35 14 11 9
2010-Q2 109 120 58 46 11 27 15
2010-Q3 111 138 68 33 21 14
2010-Q4 112 140 56 34 23
2011-Q1 146 128 44 39
2011-Q2 166 121 47
2011-Q3 158 142
2011-Q4 169

Incurred Loss - Cumulative

Accident Development Quarter

Quarter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Tail
2010-Q1 94 216 288 331 366 380 391 400
2010-Q2 109 229 287 333 343 370 385
2010-Q3 351 372 385
2010-Q4 112 252 308 343 366
2011-Q1 146 274 318 357
2011-Q2 166 287 334
2011-Q3 158 300
2011-Q4 169

Incurred Loss Development Factor

Accident Development Quarter

Quarter 2:1 3:2 4:3 5:4 6:5 7:6 8:7 Tail
2010-Q1 2.305 1.330 1.151 1.106 1.038 1.028 1.024
2010-Q2 2.101 1.251 1.159 1.032 1.078 1.040
2010-Q3 1.061 1.036
2010-Q4 2.242 1.224 1.112 1.067
2011-Q1 1.877 1.162 1.124
2011-Q2 1.727 1.163
2011-Q3 1.902
2011-Q4

Arithmetic Average 2.026 1.226 1.136 1.051 1.034 1.024

Weight Average 1.985 1.220 1.428 1.050 1.034 1.024
Wght Avg - Last 3 1.832 1.181 1.678 1.050 1.035 1.026

Selections
A-T-A
A-T-U - - - - - - - - 1.000
% Inc #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 100%
XYZ Insurance Company

Incurred Chain Ladder Projection

Accident Incurred Incurred Estimated Earned Estimated

Quarter to Date LDF (A-T-U) Ultimate Loss Premium Ult. Loss Ratio
2010-Q1 400 - - 539 0.0%
2010-Q2 385 - - 544 0.0%
2010-Q3 385 -
2010-Q4 366 - - 566 0.0%
2011-Q1 357 - - 589 0.0%
2011-Q2 334 - - 624 0.0%
2011-Q3 300 - - 684 0.0%
2011-Q4 169 - - 734 0.0%
Total 2,697 - 4,280 0.0%
XYZ Insurance Company

Incurred Bornhuetter Ferguson (BF) Projection

Accident Init. Expected Earned Init. Expected Expected Incurred to Date Expected Estimated Estimated
Quarter Loss Ratio Premium Ultimate Loss %ge Incurred Expected Actual Act - Exp Unreported Ultimate Loss Ult. Loss Ratio
2010-Q1 77% 539 415 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 400 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2010-Q2 77% 544 419 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 385 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2010-Q3 77% - - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 385 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2010-Q4 77% 566 436 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 366 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2011-Q1 77% 589 453 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 357 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2011-Q2 77% 624 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 334 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2011-Q3 77% 684 527 #DIV/0! 300 300 300 43.9%
2011-Q4 77% 734 565 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 169 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0%
Total 4,280 2,815 #DIV/0! 2,697 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
XYZ Insurance Company

Ultimate Loss Selection

Accident Ultimate Loss Earned Ultimate Loss Ratio

Quarter Inc CL Inc BF Selected Premium Inc CL Inc BF Selected
2010-Q1 - #DIV/0! 539 0.0% #DIV/0!
2010-Q2 - #DIV/0! 544 0.0% #DIV/0!
2010-Q3 - #DIV/0! - #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2010-Q4 - #DIV/0! 566 0.0% #DIV/0!
2011-Q1 - #DIV/0! 589 0.0% #DIV/0!
2011-Q2 - #DIV/0! 624 0.0% #DIV/0!
2011-Q3 - 300 684 0.0% 43.9%
2011-Q4 - - 734 0.0% 0.0%
Total - #DIV/0! - 4,280 0.0% #DIV/0! 0.0%
XYZ Insurance Company

Loss Reserves

Accident Paid Case Incurred Ultimate Undiscounted Discount Discounted

Quarter Loss Estimates Loss IBNR Loss Reserve Factor Reserve
2010-Q1 384 16 400 (400) - (384) 1.000 (384)
2010-Q2 363 22 385 (385) - (363) 1.000 (363)
2010-Q3 356 30 385 (385) - (356) 1.000 (356)
2010-Q4 325 41 366 (366) - (325) 1.000 (325)
2011-Q1 293 64 357 (357) - (293) 1.000 (293)
2011-Q2 215 119 334 (334) - (215) 1.000 (215)
2011-Q3 130 170 300 (300) - (130) 1.000 (130)
2011-Q4 45 125 169 (169) - (45) 1.000 (45)
Total 2,111 586 2,697 (2,697) - (2,111) 1.000 (2,111)
XYZ Insurance Company

Discounting Loss Reserves

Accident Undiscounted Discount Discounted %ge Future Quarter

Quarter Reserve Factor Reserve Unpaid 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2010-Q1 (384) 1.000 (384) 8.5% (124) (106) (87) (67)
2010-Q2 (363) 1.000 (363) 12.0% (106) (83) (71) (58) (45)
2010-Q3 (356) 1.000 (356) 17.0% (104) (74) (57) (49) (40) (31)
2010-Q4 (325) 1.000 (325) 24.6% (100) (66) (47) (36) (31) (26) (20)
2011-Q1 (293) 1.000 (293) 34.4% (84) (64) (42) (30) (23) (20) (16) (13)
2011-Q2 (215) 1.000 (215) 53.1% (76) (40) (31) (20) (14) (11) (10) (8) (6)
2011-Q3 (130) 1.000 (130) 74.0% (37) (33) (17) (13) (9) (6) (5) (4) (3) (3)
2011-Q4 (45) 1.000 (45) 92.0% (9) (10) (9) (5) (4) (2) (2) (1) (1) (1) (1)
Total (2,111) 1.000 (2,111)

Undiscounted Reserve (2,111) (639) (476) (362) (279) (166) (96) (52) (26) (11) (4) (1)
Discounted Reserve (2,111) (639) (476) (362) (279) (166) (96) (52) (26) (11) (4) (1)
Risk-Free Rate
Duration 0.125 0.375 0.625 0.875 1.125 1.375 1.625 1.875 2.125 2.375 2.625
Discount Factor 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

%ge Paid - Incremental 8.0% 18.0% 20.8% 18.7% 9.8% 7.5% 5.0% 3.5% 2.7% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5%
%ge Paid - Cumulative 8.0% 26.0% 46.9% 65.6% 75.4% 83.0% 88.0% 91.5% 94.2% 96.6% 98.5% 100.0%
A-T-U 12.484 3.841 2.134 1.524 1.325 1.205 1.137 1.093 1.061 1.035 1.015 1.000
A-T-A 3.250 1.800 1.400 1.150 1.100 1.060 1.040 1.030 1.025 1.020 1.015 1.000