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BUY
Target Price: Rs 525
CMP : Rs 435
Potential Upside : 21%
MARKET DATA
No. of Shares : 71 mn
Market Cap : Rs 31 bn
Mahindra Logistics
Free Float : 39%
Avg. daily vol (6mth) : 0 shares
52-w High / Low : Rs 460 / Rs 405
Bloomberg : MAHLOG IB Equity
LOGISTICS
Promoter holding : 61%
FII / DII : 6% /7%
100
95
90
Nov-17 Dec-17
Page
Investment summary 3
A compounding story 5
Asset light pan-India network 7
Focus on high growth non-Automotive verticals 8
Strong presence in Supply Chain Management 10
Addressing the unorganized People Transport Solutions 11
Financials 12
Appendix 17-20
India’s supply chain to undergo a massive change
3PL market growth to be led by non-Automotive
Mahindra Logistics – key management personnel
2
14 DEC 2017 Company Report
Mahindra Logistics: Strong contender + Vast opportunity
Mahindra Logistics
LOGISTICS
Mahindra Logistics (MLL) is one of India’s largest third party logistics (3PL)/ supply chain management (SCM) companies in
India, but it accounts for only 6-7% of India’s SCM industry. As we expect major business to shift to organized players under
GST, we believe MLL has a long growth runway given:
Unlike peers (dominating in automotive sector), MLL has diversified pan-India presence across high-growth non-automotive verticals like
E-Comm, Engineering, FMCG, Pharma etc (together accounting for 40% of SCM revenue; 59% in FY20E)
Strong relations with business partners (1,000+ across transport/ warehousing) help operate on an asset-light model. This coupled
with technology integration enables it to offer customized solutions
Earnings to compound at 28% CAGR: Focus on non-automotive and reducing dependence on M&M group business should
aid margin; however, we do not factor in any improvement as we expect MLL to reinvest for revenue growth. Expect premium
valuations to sustain as MLL’s strong positioning backed by credible management offers growth longevity, and potential to
generate 25%+ RoCE/ free cash flows. Initiate coverage with BUY and TP of Rs 525 (30x FY20E EPS).
Given limited distinct comparables for MLL in the Indian logistics space, we draw parallels across
leading players in select high-growth sectors in Indian listed universe and global peers
Comparative valuation among high-growth non-Nifty companies* Valuation profile of global and Indian logistic players
120 Blue Dart
Page Indus 50 SF Holding Co
100 Hatsun Agro Ltd
F Y17 P/E (x)
Mahindra Logistics attractively placed among key players Global peers offer limited earnings growth vs.
across high-growth Indian sectors Indian logistics players
gr owt h (% )
Dis c o unted F C F F (R s mn) 36, 890 Te r min al
4% 658 547 467 405 357
(-) net debt 459
Dis c o unted F C F E (R s mn) 37, 34 9 5% 785 631 525 448 389
No of shares (mn) 71 6% 986 752 605 504 430
T arget Pric e 525 7% 1,352 944 721 580 484
Implied PE - FY20E 30
We value Mahindra Logistics at 30 x FY20E EPS, in line with our DCF workings
Source: Company, Axis Capital * Non-Nifty Companies with 20%+ earnings growth and average RoCE of 25%+ over FY13-17 4
A compounding story…
14 DEC 2017 Company Report
Mahindra Logistics –snapshot
Mahindra Logistics
LOGISTICS
Mahindra Logistics
Mkt. cap: Rs 31 bn
FY17 revenue: Rs 27 bn
SCM PTS
FY17 revenue: Rs 24 bn FY17 revenue: Rs 3 bn
SCM historical revenue growth, gross margin PTS historical revenue growth , gross margin
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14 DEC 2017 Company Report
Focus on high growth non-Automotive verticals…
Mahindra Logistics
LOGISTICS
Strengthening presence across diverse verticals… Non- Automotive SCM revenue to post 40% CAGR
MLL has successfully replicated its success in Automotive Non-Automotive (RHS) growth (RHS)
SCM solutions to non-Automotive verticals like 25 100%
(Rs bn) 82%
E-Commerce, FMCG, Pharma, Engineering etc
20 80%
Focus on large revenue generating clients aided 73% 64%
revenue CAGR over FY15-17. This was driven by >4x 15 50% 60%
rise in revenues from E-Commerce, while other verticals
boosted ~63% CAGR over the same time frame 40%
10 40%
30%
Top 20 clients contributed ~71% to non-M&M SCM
revenues in FY17 5 20%
4.1 7.5 11.2 15.7 20.5
0 0%
…better client mining and new client additions to FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
drive growth
We believe higher business from exiting clientele and
addition of new clients across non-Automotive verticals, E-Comm 3PL industry revenue
will help MLL record 40% CAGR in non-Automotive E- to post 30-35% CAGR,
business over FY17-20 Comm. as per CRISIL – MLL to grow
(CAGR: in sync
111% )
MLL’s key non-automotive clients Others Other verticals (led by
(CAGR: Consumers) to post 21%
35% ) CAGR, as per CRISIL – MLL to
grow higher than industry due
to strong presence
Automotive growth (RHS) M&M Non-M&M M&M growth (RHS) Non-M&M growth (RHS)
25 20%
(Rs bn) 25 75% 80%
16% (Rs bn)
15%
11% 20 4.6 60%
20 3.7
10% 2.9
11% 10% 15 2.0 40%
1.2 30%
40% 25%
5% 10 20%
15 15%
-2% 0% 10%
5 -3% 7% 7% 7% 0%
14.0 16.2 18.0 19.9 22.0 12.9 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.4
10 -5% 0 -20%
FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
M&M group’s revenue growth trend Non M&M group’ SCM revenue growth trend
SCM (89% contribution currently) is the mainstay for MLL – within SCM, the company’s dependence on M&M group’s revenue
(largely Automotive) is on a decline due to higher growth in non-automotive business
M&M revenue contribution to PTS remains limited… …existing as well new clients to drive revenue growth
Non - M&M M&M People Transport Solutions PTS growth (RHS)
5 5
(Rs bn) (Rs bn) 23%
0.2 19%
17%
18%
4 0.2 4 14%
18%
13%
0.2
4.5
3 3.9 3 8%
0.2
3.3
0.2 -1% 3%
2.7
2.3 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.7
2
2 -2%
FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
GST to drive clients’ focus on improving supply chain Revenue to post 21% CAGR over FY17-20E
efficiency (and not tax-based efficiencies) resulting in
Revenue growth (RHS)
streamlining logistics across verticals 55 30%
(Rs bn)
This will drive 21% CAGR in MLL’s SCM business
29.2% 25%
45 22.9% 21.4%
PTS revenue to post 17% CAGR on addition of new 18.5% 20%
clients across locations 35
15%
Gross margin to remain largely stable across SCM and
25 6.9%
PTS business, given focus on gaining scale across 10%
existing and new clients 21
27 33 40 47
15 5%
Higher contribution from warehousing and value-added FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
services may drive operating leverage benefits
7.4%
7.2% 9.5%
25 3 9.3% 9.5%
7.2%
15
14 DEC 2017 Company Report
Company financials (Consolidated)
Mahindra Logistics
LOGISTICS
Debt raised/ (repaid) 44 100 100 - EBITDA (% ) 65.5 24.3 38.4 24.9
16
Appendix
14 DEC 2017 Company Report
Appendix 1: India’s Supply chain to undergo a massive change
Mahindra Logistics
LOGISTICS
GST implementation will not only draw tax savings (input tax credit), but also drive streamlining of their logistics
operations as business decisions will henceforth be focused on supply chain efficiency and not state-wise tax benefits
This in turn will increase business opportunities for organized service providers, as unorganized players will not be able to
provide the required services unless they invest/ transform themselves into organized service providers
Moreover post GST, erstwhile cost advantage of unorganized players (led by tax evasion given under-invoicing of
cargo, overloading etc) will be wiped out, resulting in much bigger business growth opportunity for organized players
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14 DEC 2017 Company Report
Appendix 2: 3PL market growth to be led by non-Automotive
Mahindra Logistics
LOGISTICS
Seamless pan-India transportation will drive consolidation of distribution system (regional warehouses vs. state-wise
warehouses, based on tax incentives earlier) will save inventory carrying cost
This will encourage outsourcing of logistics operations, driving operational efficiency
Hub-and-spoke model to proliferate which will enhance requirement for line-hauls and last-mile connectivity
We believe organized 3PL service providers are well placed to offer customized, end-to-end integrated solution
to clients. Ability to offer value added services and scale up across sectors (given flexibility in approach)
to enhance clients’ value accretion
Key growth drivers for 3PL #3PL market size of Rs 330 bn … … to post 20% CAGR to Rs 575 bn
(Rs bn)
Others Cars, UVs
Others 10% CAGR 21% CAGR
36 Cars, UVs E-Comm
E-Comm 67 30% CAGR
61
CRISIL expects Automotive 3PL market (64% of aggregate) to post 16% CAGR,
while non-Automotive verticals to post 25% CAGR over FY17-20E
Bachelor’s Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Maulana Azad College of Technology, Bhopal University and
Chief Operating Officer a Post-Graduate Diploma in Industrial Engineering from National Institute for Training Industrial Engineering.
Sushil Rathi Prior to joining the Company, he has worked with Anantara Solutions Private Ltd, the Premier Automobiles Ltd and
Satyam Computer Services Ltd
Bachelor’s degree in Arts from University of Mumbai and a Master’s degree in Business Administration from
VP - PTS University of Pune.
Rama Malik Previously worked with Hindustan Unilever (formely International Bestfoods), Kodak India Ltd and Writer
Relocations, India
20
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03/12/2020.
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