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26 July 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals maintain nearly a three point lead over the
opposition Conservatives.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 9384 Canadians between July 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of error of
+/- 1.01% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“Justin Trudeau is very close to 40% support about a year away from the election, which puts him
within range of winning another majority in the next election”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of
Mainstreet Research. “While the Conservatives are somewhat close behind with almost 37% support,
the Liberals hold significant leads in seat rich provinces like Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 39.4% support, while the
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 36.9%. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh have 11.8% support,
while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 7%. The Bloc Quebecois have 2.4% overall, but
10.1% in Quebec.
“The Conservatives have dominating leads in Alberta and the Prairies which makes them seem more
competitive than they actually are”, continued Maggi. “Excluding those regions, it is clear that the
Liberals are in pole positions in the areas where it matters most, as they are being powered into the
lead by women and voters under the age of 34 – which will be the biggest voting bloc in the next
election.”
The poll also asked whether Canadians were optimistic or pessimistic about their personal finances
and the Canadian economy in general. The survey found that 55.1% of respondents were optimistic
about the Canadian economy, with 20.1% being very optimistic.
There were similar findings regarding Canadians’ sentiment about personal finances. 67.6% were
optimistic about their personal finances for the rest of the year, with nearly 30% being very optimistic.
-30-
11.3%
1.9%
6.1%
35.2%
2.1%
All Voters
All Voters
10.2%
12%
1.8%
Decided and Leaning Voters
5% 33.1%
35.9%
2.2% 2.5%
Liberals 7.0%
Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois
2.4%
Greens Another Party Undecided
9.9% 11.8%
All Voters
39.4%
33.3%
36.9%
39.4%
36.9%
11.8%
All
2.4%
7.0%
2.5%
36.5%
32.7%
British Columbia
14.6%
-
13.9%
2.3%
24.5%
64.1%
5.8%
Alberta
-
3.3%
2.2%
29.6%
49.6%
12.2%
Prairies
-
6.0%
2.6%
40.5%
36.7%
14.0%
Ontario
-
6.3%
2.5%
45.8%
25.1%
10.5%
Quebec
10.1%
5.9%
2.6%
51.4%
30.8%
Atlantic Canada
7.8%
-
7.7%
2.4%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Another Party
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy for the
rest of the year?
demographic breakouts
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
And which party are you leaning What is your age group?
towards? (only asked of respondents 18 to 34 years of age
who were undecided in Q1) 35 to 49 years of age
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin 50 to 64 years of age
Trudeau 65 years of age or older
Conservative Party of Canada led by
Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led
by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth
May
Another Party
Undecided
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In the
case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region
of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.01% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 1.42%, Females: +/- 1.54%,
18-34 age group: +/- 2.75%, 35-49 age group: +/- 2.31%, 50-64 age group: +/- 1.94%, 65+ age
group: +/- 1.74%, British Columbia: +/- 3.28%, Alberta: +/- 3.28%, Prairies: +/- 2.48%, Ontario:
+/- 2.32%, Quebec: +/- 3.19%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 1.87%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.