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Paper Title
Regression Based Sales Data Forecasting for Predicting the Business Performance
Authors
D. Asir Antony Gnana Singh, E. Jebamalar Leavline, S. Muthukrishnan, R. Yuvaraj
Abstract
Business plays a vital role in day-to-day life to bring the goods and services to the people. The profit ofa business highly depends on the sales. Forecasting thesales in business is essential since the sales forecast predicts the business performance.Moreover, sales forecasting is an estimation of futuresales in a business based on the past sales data. This forecasting to make better managerial decisions allows in business for improving the performance of the business. Furthermore, the sales forecasting helps to increase the revenue, reduce the operating cost, improve the working capital use, and increase the shareholder’s values. Therefore, this paper presents a sales data forecasting to predict the business performance.
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MLA
D. Asir Antony Gnana Singh, E. Jebamalar Leavline, S. Muthukrishnan, R. Yuvaraj, “Regression Based Sales Data Forecasting for Predicting the Business Performance”, November 17 Volume 3 Issue 11 , International Journal on Future Revolution in Computer Science & Communication Engineering (IJFRSCE), PP: 589 - 593
APA
D. Asir Antony Gnana Singh, E. Jebamalar Leavline, S. Muthukrishnan, R. Yuvaraj, November 17 Volume 3 Issue 11, “Regression Based Sales Data Forecasting for Predicting the Business Performance”, International Journal on Future Revolution in Computer Science & Communication Engineering (IJFRSCE), PP: 589 - 593

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_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Regression Based Sales Data Forecasting for Predicting the Business

Performance

1

D. Asir Antony Gnana Singh, 2E. Jebamalar Leavline, 3S. Muthukrishnan, 3R. Yuvaraj

1

Department of Computer Science and Engineering,

2

Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering,

3

Department of Information Technology,

Anna University, BIT Campus, Tiruchirappalli-24 India

Abstract: Business plays a vital role in day-to-day life to bring the goods and services to the people. The profit ofa business highly depends on

the sales. Forecasting thesales in business is essential since the sales forecast predicts the business performance.Moreover, sales forecasting is an

estimation of futuresales in a business based on the past sales data. This forecasting to make better managerial decisions allows in business for

improving the performance of the business. Furthermore, the sales forecasting helps to increase the revenue, reduce the operating cost, improve

the working capital use, and increase the shareholder’s values. Therefore, this paper presents a sales data forecasting to predict the business

performance.

__________________________________________________*****_________________________________________________

Business is an organization or economic system where average method, the forecast for next period (period t+1)

goods and services are exchanged among one another for will be equal to a weighted average of a specified number of

making profit. Every business needs some investments and the most recent observation. In the exponential smoothing

enough customers to make some consistent output of profit. method, the forecast for the next period (period t) will be

Sales forecasting is the process of estimating the future calculated as in Equation (1).

sales. This forecast gives the strength for the businessmen to

manage the workflows, cash flows and resources etc. 3. Literature Review

Accurate sales forecasts help the company to make This section reviews the research works reported in the

decisions and to predict the short-term and long-term literature that are related to the presented work. XiaodanYua

functions.Forecasting is a planning tool that helps et al presented a newspaper sales forecasting using support

management to predict the future events based on the past vector regression method. In this approach, the real data is

and present events. Forecasting starts with certain collected and preprocessed using the techniques such as

assumptions based on the management judgments, cleaning, reduction, transformation. The support vector

knowledge and experience. Forecasting is an important for regression is used to forecast the sales data [1].Teresa M.

McCarthy Byrne a et al presented industries sales

planning and it is the backbone of effective operation of the

forecasting. In this method the forecasting of sales is based

business.Therefore, this paper presents sales forecasting

on the environmental condition, use of judgment, industry

using regression analysis tool to predict the business trends

feedback and training [2]. F.L. Chen, T.Y. Ou et al

in order to improve the profit in business by changing the

presented a Taguchi method of industry sales forecasting on

business activities based on the sales forecasting.

extreme learning machine. In this method, using a Gray

2. Types of forecasting relation analysis mathematics (GRA) method they

The forecasting is classified into five categories such as forecasted industry sales. The GRA has two types namely

naive method, mean (simple average) method, simple compared series and reference series which are called as

moving average method, weighted moving average method relational coefficient [3].

and exponential smoothing method. In the naive method, the

forecast for the next period (period +1) will be equal to the Tsan-Ming Cho et al. presented a sales data forecasting with

period of actual demand ( At ). In mean (simple average) limited amount of time and data. In this technique, a strong

method, the forecast for next period (period t+1) will be and versatile artificial intelligence method called as extreme

equal to the average of all historical demands. In the simple learning machine is used. In order to improve the

moving average method, the forecast of next period (period performance of the sales forecast, they used 3f algorithm

t+1) will be equal to the average of a specified number of [4]. YairOrbach et al presented a product evolution sales

the most recent observation, with each observation receiving forecast. They forecasted their sales based on the

performance and availability of the product. Theyalso did

589

IJFRCSCE | November 2017, Available @ http://www.ijfrcsce.org

_______________________________________________________________________________________

International Journal on Future Revolution in Computer Science & Communication Engineering ISSN: 2454-4248

Volume: 3 Issue: 11 589 – 593

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

estimation for hybrid sales. The influence of the product is gives an accurate result [13]. From these literatures, it is

fully based on the relationship between supplier and observed that many approaches and techniques are used to

industries. The final product is obtained based on the conduct the forecasting. However, this paper presents the

technology factor, past performance and roadmaps [5]. regression-based forecasting method for sales forecast.

Chi-Jie Lu et al presented a computer product sales forecast 4. Regression based Sales Data Forecasting

based on the scheme of variable selection and support vector This section presents the least squares based forecasting

regression. In this method, they used min max method, method to predict the sales data. Table 1 shows the sales

normalization method and variable selection method for data of the business for the period between the 2001 and

predicting the sales of each product sales [6]. 2015 and their respective sales data are tabulated. The year

GauriKulkarnia et al predicted sales of new product based is an independent variable since it does not depend on the

on the online search data. In this method, the real data is sales data and the sales is the dependent variable since the

collected and processed by finding the product sales amount depends on the year variable. Figure 1 depicts

characteristics, customer interests, box office sales and the actual sales data of the shop with respect to the year.

product interests. They distinguished the product by means

of searching of particular data before launching and after

launching [7].

new and existing products based on the customer reviews

and random projection approach. In this approach, based on

the online customer reviews and customer interests on the

product, they forecasted the product sales. Random

projection approach is a method used to forecast the product

sales [8].José M. Merigó et al presented a sales forecasting

based on the technique of aggregation system. The

aggregation system provides summarized results of data. Figure 1 Actual sales data with respect to the year

This method takes the arithmetic mean and weighted

average. Here they have collected a real data from different Table 1 Sales with respect to the year

countries and predicted the exact output [9].

Year Sales (in units)

Zhi-Ping Fan et al presented forecasting of sales data based 2001 2000

on the reviews of online of product. In this method, they 2002 3000

collected actual data based on the reviews and preprocessed 2003 2500

the data using word segmentation and word statistics. They 2004 3000

extracted the data and built the forecasting model using base 2005 4000

emotional and Norton – emotional model[10]. 2006 4500

SangeetaVhatkaraet al presentedforecasting of sales goods 2007 5000

using neural network model. In this method, they forecast 2008 4500

the data based on the fast moving products that are low cost. 2009 5000

In multidimensional space, they classified and analyzed the

2010 6000

sales data[11].JulienMostardet al presented a demand

2011 5500

forecasting using historical data and expert judgment data.

2012 6000

In this method, they have collected the real data and forecast

2013 6000

the data based on demand information versus expert

2014 7000

judgment. The role ofexpert judgment is to give demand on

total sale of data and its range. [12]. NaoufelCheikhrouhou a 2015 8000

et al presented demand forecasting for a collaborative

process. There are three methods adopted such as

Various calculations from actual sales data is shown in

mathematical forecasting, event-based fuzzy judgment

Table 2. These calculations are carried out with the

forecasting and collaborative forecasting with fuzzy

following procedure.

judgment. These three methods give a different forecasted

data and finally concluded that collaborative forecasting

590

IJFRCSCE | November 2017, Available @ http://www.ijfrcsce.org

_______________________________________________________________________________________

International Journal on Future Revolution in Computer Science & Communication Engineering ISSN: 2454-4248

Volume: 3 Issue: 11 589 – 593

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Table 2Actual sales data

X Y XY 𝐗𝟐 (𝐗𝐘)𝟐 𝐘𝟐

1 2000 2000 1 4000000 4000000

2 3000 6000 4 36000000 9000000

3 2500 7500 9 5625000 6250000

4 3000 12000 16 144000000 9000000

5 4000 20000 25 400000000 9000000

6 4500 27000 36 729000000 20250000

7 5000 35000 49 1225000000 25000000

8 4500 36000 64 1296000000 20250000

9 5000 4500 81 2025000000 25000000

10 6000 60000 100 3600000000 36000000

11 5500 60500 121 3690250000 30250000

12 6000 72000 144 5184000000 36000000

13 6000 78000 169 6084000000 36000000

14 7000 98000 196 9604000000 49000000

15 8000 120000 225 14400000000 64000000

The correlation coefficient r is calculated as in Equation (1) From these values, correlation coefficient r is calculated

where 𝑆𝑥𝑥 is the sum of the squares of the difference using Equation (1)

between each xx and the mean xx value and 𝑆𝑦𝑦 is the sum

640599 .99 640599 .99 640599 .99

of the squares of the difference between each xx and the r= = =

1175 .99∗362960000 4.2683733011 653327 .88

mean yy value r = 0.9805

y = mx + c (5)

𝑆𝑥𝑦

r= (1) The linear equation is of the form y = mx + c as in Equation

𝑆𝑥𝑥 .𝑆𝑦𝑦

(5) where c is constant, y is intercept, m is the slope of the

𝑆𝑥𝑦 is sum of the product of the difference between xx its straight line, y is the dependent variable and x is the

means and the difference between yy and its mean and it is independent variable. In this equation where y is the

calculated using Equation (2). equation of the straight line, m is the slope or gradient andc

is the y intercept where the line crosses the y axis. The

𝑆𝑥𝑦 = 𝑛 ( 𝑥𝑦)- 𝑥 𝑦 (2) constant c and the slope n are calculated as in Equation (6)

=678999.99 – 38400 and Equation (7).

=640599.99

n ( 𝑥𝑦 ) – ( 𝑥) ( 𝑦)

𝑆𝑥𝑥 is the sum of the squares of the difference between c= (6)

n ( 𝑥 2) − ( 𝑥)2

each xx and the mean xx valueand it is calculated using

Equation (3). where ∑ 𝑥𝑦 isSum of the products of paired values, ∑ 𝑥

is the sum of x values, ∑ 𝑦 is the sum of y values, ∑ 𝑥 2 is

𝑆𝑥𝑥 = 𝑛 𝑥 2 − ( 𝑥)2 (3)

the sum of squared x values,∑ 𝑦 2 is the sum of squared y

=1239.99-64

values and n is the number of values.

=1175.99

Similarly 𝑆𝑦𝑦 is the sum of the squares of the difference ( 𝑦) ( 𝑥 2 ) – ( 𝑥) ( 𝑦 )

m= (7)

between each xx and the mean yy valueand it is calculated n ( 𝑥 2) − ( 𝑥)2

396796 .8 −38400 358396 .8

using Equation (4). 𝑚= = = 304.761

1239 .99−64 1175 .99

m = 305

𝑆𝑦𝑦 = 𝑛 ( 𝑥 2 )– ( 𝑦)2 (4)

With c = 545, the forecast values can be calculated as

=386000000-23040000 follows.

=362960000 When x=16; y = 305(16) + 545=5425

When x=17; y = 305(17) + 545=5730

591

IJFRCSCE | November 2017, Available @ http://www.ijfrcsce.org

_______________________________________________________________________________________

International Journal on Future Revolution in Computer Science & Communication Engineering ISSN: 2454-4248

Volume: 3 Issue: 11 589 – 593

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

When x=18; y = 305(18) + 545=6035

When x=19; y = 305(19) + 545=6340

When x=20; y = 305(20) + 545=6645

When x=21; y = 305(21) + 545=6950

When x=22; y = 305(22) + 545=7255

When x=23; y = 305(23) + 545=7560

When x=24; y = 305(24) + 545=7865

When x=25; y = 305(25) + 545=8170

When x=26; y = 305(26) + 545=8475

When x=27; y = 305(27) + 545=8780

When x=28; y = 305(28) + 545=9085

When x=29; y = 305(29) + 545=9390

When x=30; y = 305(30) + 545=9695

year

X Y XY X2 Y2

16 5425 86800 256 29430625

17 5730 97410 289 32832900

18 6035 108630 324 36421225

19 6340 120460 361 40195600

20 6645 132900 400 44156025

21 6950 145950 441 48302500

22 7255 159610 484 52635025

23 7560 173880 529 57153600

24 7865 188760 576 61858225

25 8170 204250 625 66748900

26 8475 220350 676 71825625

27 8780 237060 729 77088400

28 9085 254380 784 82537225

29 9390 272310 841 88172100

30 9695 290850 900 93993025

X Y XY ( X) Y 2 =54180331.6

= 23 = 7760 = 54180331.67 = 547.666 7

Table 3 shows the forecast data for x=16 to x=30 and the 2515119 .99 2515119 .99 2515119 .99

r= = = =

5.78361044 ∗362960000 5.7836104 𝐸12 2404913 .803

same is plotted in Figure 2. For the predicted sales data the

1.0458

correlation coefficient is calculated using Equation (1) to

Equation (4) as follows. So, r = 1.1. Now, the slope is calculated using Equation (7)

as

𝑆𝑥𝑦 = 𝑛 ( 𝑥𝑦) - 𝑥 𝑦 = =2693599.995 –

( 𝑦) ( 𝑥 2 ) – ( 𝑥) ( 𝑦 ) 396796 .8 −38400 358396 .8

178480=2515119.99 m= = =

n ( 𝑥 2) − ( 𝑥)2 1239 .99−64 1175 .99

𝑆𝑥𝑥 = 𝑛 𝑥 2 – ( 𝑥)2 = 8214.99-529 = 7685.99

𝑆𝑦𝑦 = 𝑛 ( 𝑥 2 )– ( 𝑦)2 = 812704975.1-60217600 = = 304.761

752487375.1

5. Conclusion

Therefore, r is calculated as

Sales forecasting is an estimation of feature sales in a

business based on the past sales data. This forecasting

592

IJFRCSCE | November 2017, Available @ http://www.ijfrcsce.org

_______________________________________________________________________________________

International Journal on Future Revolution in Computer Science & Communication Engineering ISSN: 2454-4248

Volume: 3 Issue: 11 589 – 593

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

allows in business to make better managerial decisions for [13] NaoufelCheikhrouhou a, François Marmier b, Omar

improving the performance of the business. Furthermore, the Ayadia, Philippe Wieser c, A collaborative demand

sales forecasting leads to increase the revenue, reduces the forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgements,

Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 61, 2011,

operating cost, improve the working capital use, and

pp.409–421

increase the shareholder’s values. This paper presented a

regression based sales forecasting for predicting the business

performance. In order to carry out the experiment, the sales

data are collected for the years from 2001 to 2016. The

regression analysis is carried out on the sales data and the

sales prediction is carried out for the years from 2016 to

2030.

Reference

[1] XiaodanYua, ZhiquanQib, YuanmengZhaoc, Support

Vector Regression for Newspaper/Magazine

SalesForecastingProcedia Computer Science, vol. 17,

2013, pp. 1055 – 1062

[2] Teresa M. McCarthy Byrne a, Mark A. Moon b, John T.

Mentzer b, Motivating the industrial sales force in the sales

forecasting process Industrial Marketing Management, vol.

40, 2011, pp. 128–138

[3] F.L. Chen, T.Y. Ou , Sales forecasting system based on

Gray extreme learning machine with Taguchi method in

retail industry Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 38,

2011, pp. 1336–1345

[4] Tsan-Ming Choi, Chi-Leung Hui, Na Liu, Sau-Fun Ng,

Yong Yu, Fast fashion sales forecasting with limited data

and time Decision Support Systems, vol. 59, 2014, pp. 84–

92

[5] YairOrbach ,GilaE.Fruchter Forecasting sales and product

evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car Technological

Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 78, 2011, pp. 1210–

1226

[6] Chi-Jie Lu, Sales forecasting of computer products based

on variable selection scheme and support vector regression

Neurocomputing, vol. 128,2014, pp. 491–499

[7] GauriKulkarni a , P.K. Kannan b, Wendy Moe b, Using

online search data to forecast new product sales Decision

Support Systems, vol. 52, 2012, pp. 604–611

[8] Matthew J. Schneider a 1, Sachin Gupta b, Forecasting

sales of new and existing products using consumer reviews:

A random projections approach International Journal of

Forecasting, vol.32, 2016, pp. 243–256

[9] José M. Merigó a, Daniel Palacios-Marqués b,

BelénRibeiro-Navarrete c, Aggregation systems for sales

forecastingJournal of Business Research

[10] Zhi-Ping Fan, Yu-JieChe, Zhen-Yu Chen, Product sales

forecasting using online reviews and historical sales data: A

method combining the Bass model and sentiment analysis,

Journal of Business Research, vol. 74, 2017, pp. 90-100

[11] SangeetaVhatkara , Jessica Diasb, Oral-Care Goods Sales

Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network Model,

Procedia Computer Science, vol. 79, 2016, pp. 238 – 243

[12] JulienMostard a , Ruud Teunter b, René de Koster a,

Forecasting demand for single-period products: A case

study in the apparel industry, European Journal of

Operational Research, vol. 211, 2011,pp.139–147

593

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_______________________________________________________________________________________

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