2017 Annual Briefing

Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Product of the Research & Information Support Center (RISC)

Introduction

Murder in Mexico has risen steadily over the last two and a half years, positioning 2017 to be the
country’s deadliest year on record. Cartel fracturing, rivalries, and shifting control of the drug trade
contribute to these unprecedented statistics. Media reports highlight an alarming number of incidents
affecting foreign travelers, and paint a grim forecast for Mexico's business and tourism future. However,
the security situation within Mexico's 32 states is localized and varies greatly, meaning the impact of
increasing homicide rates is not universal across the country. Furthermore, U.S. private sector security in
Mexico is not holistically reflected by murder statistics and media headlines alone. This OSAC report will
provide context to Mexico's deadliest year on record, highlight current geographic hotspots due to
increased violence, and summarize private sector security concerns and subsequent posturing in the
current environment. Cited resources include official crime reporting data from Mexico’s Interior Ministry,
scholarly research on Mexico’s drug war, Mexican and U.S. media reports, and OSAC constituent
benchmarking.

Contents

I. Intentional Homicide: 2017 Statistics

 The Numbers

 Context to the Violence

 Locations of the Violence

 Percentage Increase Vs. Per Capita

 Targeting & Victims

 Police Response

 Additional Context to U.S. Citizen Deaths in Mexico

II. Private Sector Security Concerns

 OSAC Benchmarking

III. Beyond Homicide: Crime Threats & Trends

 Robbery

 Extortion
 Fraud
IV. Conclusions

V. Resources

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Intentional Homicide: 2017 Statistics

The U.S. Department of State refers to Mexico’s Interior Ministry (Secretaría de Gobernación, SEGOB)
statistics to track security trends within the country. SEGOB has recorded and published a broad scope of
reported criminal incidents since January 1997, to include monthly data on homicides, theft, rape, fraud
and extortion. This report examines larger trends illustrated by SEGOB statistics in an effort to establish
context to 2017 data.

Many independent researchers warn about the reliability of Government of Mexico data, as
underreporting, law enforcement corruption, and data manipulation can contribute to inaccurate
depictions of crime rates. According to the 2017 Global Impunity Index, Mexico received the lowest score
among nations in Latin America and the fifth lowest score worldwide for criminal liability and punishment.
Therefore, this report focuses on trend analysis rather than exact figures.

The Numbers

For the purposes of this report, OSAC examined numbers specific to “homicidios dolosos” (intentional
murder) as opposed to “homicidios culposos” (involuntary manslaughter). SEGOB further breaks down
intentional homicide into crimes committed “with a firearm”, “with a knife”, “other”, and “no data”. Incidents
with a firearm are often targeted and can be indiciative of organized crime activity, which is not otherwise
specifically outlined. Within this report, all nomenclature of “murder” or “homicide” refers to the total sum
of incidents within all four categories of intentional homicide. Below is a snapshot of total annual
intentional homicides in Mexico from 1997 to 2016.

Intentional Homicide: Mexico

1997-2016
25000
22852

20000

15000

10000
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Per these figures, 2011 is considered Mexico’s deadliest year on record to-date. The steady increase in
homicides from 2007 to 2011 is frequently attributed to former Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s
attack on drug trafficking and organized crime. During Calderon’s six-year term, an estimated 48,000
victims were killed by drug-related violence. Major cities like Ciudad Juarez, Monterrey, and Durango
were highly impacted at this time, as well as the resort town of Acapulco.

While homicide incidents began to increase again over the last two and a half years, 2017 has garnered
the most scrutiny and concern as the number of homicides each month continuously surpasses those of
2011 (see graph below). Although homicides decreased in the final quarter of 2011 as compared to the
rest of the year, September 2017 had the second highest number of monthly homicides on record behind
only June 2017. As homicide numbers continue to increase with each month, the trend has led to the
highly publicized assessment that 2017 will register as Mexico’s deadliest year on record at its close.
The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Intentional Homicide: Mexico

2011 vs. 2017
2700
Number of Homicide Victims

2400

2100 2017
2011
1800

1500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Context to the Violence

The primary location for drug trafficking in Latin America shifted from Colombia to Mexico in the 1990’s,
after the dominant Colombian cartels were dismantled. Former President Calderon’s “kingpin” philosophy
in 2011 focused on capturing or killing cartel leadership within Mexico. However, security analysts note
this tactic also leads to fracturing among remaining cartel membership, the development of new cartels,
and subsequent rivalry violence. Many of the new drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) that formed in
Mexico initially lacked the funding, resources, and organization necessary to run large-scale cartel
businesses. They frequently turned to kidnapping, theft, and extortion to get operations up and running.
These tactics led to the overall spike in crime in communities affected by the new DTO groups.

In a similar fashion, much of the violence in 2016 and 2017 is attributed to cartel fracturing following the
arrest and extradition of Sinaloa cartel kingpin and drug-trafficker Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. The
Sinaloa cartel is considered Mexico’s oldest and most established drug trafficking organization, controlling
an estimated 40-60% of the country’s drug trade by 2012. The power vacuum left by “El Chapo” has led
to increased rivalries and fracturing within the Sinaloa cartel, as well as increased tensions with other
DTOs. Murders continue to rise as factions fight among themselves and against other cartels for control
over territory and drug trafficking routes. In 2016 and 2017, the Sinaloa cartel has been challenged in
some of its traditional strongholds, to include Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango, and Chihuahua.

One of the primary challengers to the Sinaloa cartel is the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG),
who is vying for territory across multiple Mexican states. In 2015, the Mexican government noted CJNG
was one of two cartels in Mexico with the most extensive reach. CJNG is purported to have a presence in
14 Mexican states – a combined area that makes up nearly half the country. CJNG has been described
as the most violent cartel to-date, with shootouts, arson incidents, and confrontations with Mexican law
enforcement leading to the death of Mexican citizens and destruction of rural villages. CJNG is also
reported to have used Government of Mexico agricultural data to target extortions among avocado
farmers in an effort to diversify their income streams. CJNG activity has been attributed to the recent
spikes in homicides within the states of Veracruz, Colima, and Jalisco during 2017. CJNG cells have also
been dismantled in tourist areas, to include Los Cabos, Puerta Vallarta, and Cancun.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency tracks eight major DTOs across Mexico, to include Sinaloa and
CJNG. Media and government reports attribute many of the violent incidents in 2017 to these various
DTOs, depending on their dominant territory within Mexico. Additionally, localized branches of the cartels
also operate throughout Mexico; this year local media sources reported the arrest of the suspected leader
of the Sinaloa-linked Cancun cartel.
The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

For additional information on the dynamics and dominant territories of Mexico’s drug cartels, see:

 BBC’s Mexico's Most-Wanted: A Guide to the Drug Cartels

 Congressional Research Service Mexico: Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking Organizations
 Justice in Mexico Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis Through 2016

Locations of the Violence

Cartel violence has been historically associated with Mexico’s northern border states and transit cities
with a large drug trafficking nexus. It should be noted that many of these locations – to include Guerrero,
Baja California, Sinaloa, Michoacán, and Tamaulipas – continue to rank among the top ten Mexico states
with the highest rate of homicides per capita in 2017. It should also be noted that OSAC constituents
have long been familiar with the security environments in these higher risk areas and the necessary
mitigations measures to maintain operations.

However, one of the biggest concerns for OSAC constituents and foreign travelers to Mexico in 2017 has
been the increase in violence in areas previously considered “immune” from cartel presence, to include
popular tourist destinations of Los Cabos and Cancun. Although these areas were never devoid of cartel
presence and associated violence, the increasing number of homicides and a small number of highly
publicized incidents in 2017 has fueled growing concern.

On August 22, 2017 the Department of State updated the Travel Warning for Mexico to include language
on the increasing homicides statistics in the states of Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo. These states
are also home to the popular tourist destinations of Los Cabos, Cancun, and Playa del Carmen. There is
no advisory against travel to these states; however, U.S. citizens are being made aware that some violent
incidents have occurred in popular tourist areas. The travel warning also includes updated language for
the states of Baja California, Chiapas, and Veracruz, given new U.S. government travel restrictions.

The map to the right illustrates Prohibited travel

individual state advisories as
noted in the Mexico Travel Deferred travel
Warning. Government personnel Transportation restrictions
are prohibited from personal
travel in one state, Guerrero. Exercise caution
Only six states warrant
advisories where travelers are
encouraged to defer non-
essential itineraries, many of
which were previously
mentioned as associated with a
long-term cartel presence. The
majority of states warrant
specific travel restrictions, to
include prohibited sections of
overland highways and/or public
transportation restrictions. Baja
California Sur and Quintana
Roo, with the new advisories of
caution, are highlighted in yellow
and gray.
The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Percentage Increase Vs. Per Capita

Many states – to include Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo – are generating alarm due to their
percentage increase in homicide numbers over the past year. Percentage increases can be indicative of
trends within an individual state; however, they do not singularly represent the security environment.
Many OSAC constituents continue to operate in these areas without incident or major changes to their
security posture. Therefore, it is imperative to look at incident numbers and their impact on percentage
increases, as well as per capita homicide rates, in order to determine the reach and impact of homicides
on the U.S. private sector.

In Quintana Roo, homicides increased by 146.4% from January to September 2017, as compared to the
same timeframe in 2016. The actual incidents jumped from 97 to 239, driving the high percentage
increase. However, Quintana Roo had a per capita rate of 19.14 homicides per 100,000 residents, which
falls below the national average of 22.88. Quintana Roo ranks 16 out of Mexico’s 32 states for per capita
homicides, with a population of 1.5 million in 2015.

By comparison, homicides that have been historically high in the state of Guerrero rose from 1,654 in the
first nine months of 2016 to 1,858 in the first nine months of 2017. Although this only marks a 12.3%
percent increase, Guerrero ranks second among Mexican states for its per capita rate of 68.68 per
100,000 residents. Guerrero had a population of 3.5 million in 2015.

The state of Baja California Sur has experienced a sharp percentage increase in homicides during 2017
(194.9%) as well as the third highest per capita homicide rate in Mexico (66.02 per 100,000 residents).
The number of actual incidents increased from 136 to 401 homicides. However, Baja California Sur had a
population of just over 700,000 in 2015. The comparatively smaller population of Baja California Sur to
other Mexican states likely contributes to its high per capita homicide rate.

Context to 2017 homicide statistics should be derived from both per capita rates and percentage
increases. Percentage increases demonstrate that many states are experiencing a significant internal
change in homicide rates over the past year, while per capita rates illustrates that increasing homicide
numbers continue to impact states with known cartel presence, like Colima, Guerrero, and Sinaloa. The
following maps compare the top ten Mexican states by percentage increase and per capita rates. Per
capita rates and corresponding percentage increases for all of Mexico’s 32 states, and the national
average, can be seen in the table below.
Homicides 2017: Top 10 States by Homicides 2017: Top 10 States by Per
Percentage Increase Capita Rate

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

2017 Homicides Rates: Per Capita vs. Percentage Increase

Jan - Sept 2016 Jan - Sept 2017 Per Capita Percent

Mexican State
Homicides Homicides Rate change
Colima 441 589 105.02 33.6%
Guerrero 1,654 1,858 68.68 12.3%
Baja California Sur 136 401 66.02 194.9%
Baja California 879 1,677 62.32 90.8%
Sinaloa 853 1,255 55.14 47.1%
Chihuahua 1,002 1,461 51.51 45.8%
Zacatecas 420 517 43.07 23.1%
Morelos 494 523 35.48 5.9%
Michoacán 1,084 1,031 29.51 -4.9%
Tamaulipas 656 716 26.35 9.1%
Oaxaca 733 778 25.54 6.1%
Guanajuato 817 1,058 23.87 29.5%
Veracruz 1,026 1,410 23.03 37.4%
National 16,769 21,200 22.88 26.4%
Sonora 431 507 22.44 17.6%
Quintana Roo 97 239 19.14 146.4%
San Luis Potosí 222 390 18.56 75.7%
Jalisco 966 1,110 18.25 14.9%
Nayarit 31 170 17.87 448.4%
Puebla 555 766 16.18 38.0%
Tabasco 186 284 15.57 52.7%
DF - CDMX 746 892 13.50 19.6%
Mexico State 1,699 1,730 13.28 1.8%
Nuevo León 511 494 12.60 -3.3%
Durango 173 167 12.38 -3.5%
Chiapas 349 398 9.86 14.0%
Querétaro 94 152 9.82 61.7%
Tlaxcala 65 89 9.04 36.9%
Coahuila 197 198 8.71 0.5%
Campeche 67 60 8.56 -10.4%
Hidalgo 117 177 8.01 51.3%
Aguascalientes 32 63 6.36 96.9%
Yucatán 36 40 2.45 11.1%

** Per capita rate is based on 100,000 residents

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Targeting & Victims

The increasing homicide numbers primarily affect Mexican nationals; victims frequently have affiliation
with cartels, to include direct membership or indirect ties. Some independent researchers have found
roughly a third to half of all homicides in Mexico show indications of organized crime affiliation, based on
tactics. Other sources state roughly 85% of murder victims are affiliated with the drug trafficking trade.
Data from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y
Geografía, INEGI) also indicates Mexican men are approximately eight times more likely to become
homicide victims than Mexican women.

Mexicans living in disputed cartel territories may frequently fall victim to extortions and subsequent
violence, as well as being injured or killed in the crossfire stemming from shootouts in public places.
Deaths from shootouts have occurred at gas stations, street markets, and at shopping plazas. El
Universal reported 173 Mexicans died as a result of shootouts in bars or nightclubs from January 2015 to
June 2017. Journalists covering the drug trade and law enforcement officials investigating cartel activity
are also frequently targeted by DTOs.

Americans and other foreign travelers are not assessed to be the intended targets of murders resulting
from cartel rivalries. The infrequent reports of Americans kidnapped or targeted for homicide also
frequently link the victim to narcotics trafficking or cartel members. For example, a U.S. citizen shot and
killed in a July 2016 attack in the lobby of a Tijuana hotel was believed to be targeted in connection with
nefarious drug trafficking activity, and was not assessed to be the victim of a random act of violence.

The primary concern for OSAC constituents and other travelers stemming from the increase in murders is
the safety of Mexican, dual-national, and expatriate employees who may live and work among disputed
DTO territories. Part of this concern stems from the potential for bystander or “wrong place/wrong time”
violence to affect both long-term resident employees and short-term travelers. Although infrequent, this
potential threat is important for OSAC constituents to consider for employees in Mexico, particularly as
rising homicide rates contribute to an increase in violent incidents in public areas. Travelers and local
nationals affiliated with OSAC organizations have been affected by crossfire incidents in various locations
of Mexico during 2017, to include:
 Injury by indirect gunfire while vacationing employees were walking near a resort in Los Cabos on
non-work related travel. The incident is assessed to be the result of a cartel shoot-out.
 The death of a location surveyor due to direct gunfire during work-related travel. It is assessed
the victim, who was a Mexican national, may have been attacked because he was unfamiliar
person carrying a camera in a known cartel territory.

Additionally, a U.S. citizen was killed in January 2017 at the Blue Parrot nightclub in Playa del Carmen,
following a targeted shooting between two individuals outside the establishment. The American was not
killed by gunfire, but rather in the resulting stampede as the crowd attempted to escape the venue.

Police Response

There has been a sustained effort in Mexico’s popular tourist areas to increase police presence. Media
reports frequently highlight increased police presence and beach patrols in areas like Cancun, Puerto
Vallarta, and Los Cabos. In Los Cabos specifically, local and federal authorities are working with hotels
and the airport to increase security measures. Efforts include an increased number of surveillance
cameras and a new military facility for rapid incident response in the area.

Law enforcement response to Mexico’s spike in murders is location-dependent; some critics have cited
challenges with the implementation of a new criminal justice system and insufficient federal police support
as contributing factors to the continuous rise in homicides. Law enforcement personnel are also primary
The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

targets of DTOs, the number of law enforcement personnel that have been killed in the line of duty has
nearly doubled since the mid-2000’s.

Additional Context to U.S. Citizen Deaths in Mexico

The Bureau of Consular Affairs (CA) publishes statistics on U.S. citizen deaths overseas, specified by
country, location within country, month, year, and cause of death. At the time of this report, data was
available for Mexico from January – June 2017 when, according to CA statistics, 144 U.S. citizens died in
Mexico during this six-month timeframe. The causes of death are as follows:
 Homicide: 34%
 Auto accident: 32%
 Other accident: 12%
 Drowning: 11%
 Suicide: 10%
 Maritime accident: 2%

Homicides are currently the leading cause of death; followed closely by auto accidents, which are
commonly the most deadly incident affecting Americans abroad. As mentioned, a majority of the known
homicides of U.S. citizens in Mexico can be connected to underlying nefarious ties. A small portion of
homicides in Mexico can also be attributed to incidents of robbery or other crimes gone wrong.

The highest concentration of U.S. citizen deaths during this timeframe occurred in the state of Baja
California (home to Tijuana) with 27 known incidents, 11 of which were homicides. The second highest
concentration of U.S. citizen deaths occurred in the state of Quintana Roo (home to the Mayan Riveria)
with 17 incidents, only one of which was a homicide. The leading cause of death among Americans in
Quintana Roo was drowning, resulting in 12 incidents during this six-month period.

While the tourist areas in Mexico have received extra scrutiny due to increasing homicide numbers, there
were only two deaths of American citizens in Baja California Sur (home to Los Cabos) during this time.
One death resulted from a drowning and the other a suicide. By comparison, media reports indicate five
U.S. citizens have been killed by rogue waves in Los Cabos since June 2017; natural disasters appear to
pose a larger threat than crossfire violence to Americans and other foreign travelers in Mexico’s resort
areas.

Private Sector Security Concerns

Rising homicide statistics are not directly affecting OSAC constituents with operations in Mexico; these
organizations continue to assess other types of crimes are most likely to impact their employees. 146
respondents participated in a benchmarking survey regarding security concerns and operating posture in
Mexico. The majority has not changed their security posture in Mexico during 2017, and the security
situation has not warranted the suspension or termination of operations. Only 11% of respondents
indicated having implemented new travel restrictions. Overall, survey results indicate that Mexico’s
security environment, which many constituents have long been familiar with, has not changed drastically
to negatively impact the U.S. private sector during the past year. This suggests rising homicide statistics
and many of the cartel-related violent incidents highlighted by the media are not directly impacting OSAC
organizations in Mexico.

In terms of homicide specifically, 87% of respondents indicated their organization is “never” affected by
murder, 10% indicated their organization is “rarely” impacted by murder, and 3% indicated their
organization is “sometimes” impacted. These results support the assessment that organizations can and

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

have endured incidents of wrong place/wrong time homicides, but it is not commonly occurring security
threat. No OSAC organizations indicated their employees were “frequently” or “very frequently” impacted
by homicides.

Similarly, 51% indicated their employees are “never” impacted by bystander violence, while no
organization said their employees were “very frequently” impacted by bystander violence, and only 3%
said it occurred “frequently. Overall, 57% of respondents indicated their organization was “never”
impacted by cartel-related violence, while 2% said DTO-related crime “frequently” impacts their
operations.

OSAC constituents in Mexico are more commonly impacted by incidents of telephonic extortion, natural
disasters, cargo theft, and petty theft. The graph below is sorted in descending order of the incidents
OSAC constituents indicated impacted their employees “frequently.” Other threats that are commonly
emphasized in the Mexico security environment include corruption, armed robbery, and fraud. These
results, among others, are also published in the 2017 Mexico Security Benchmarking report.

OSAC Benchmarking
2017 Reported Security Incidents & Frequency
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Never Rarely Sometimes Frequently Very Frequently

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

The incidents most frequently reported Prominent Security Risks in Mexico:

to impact OSAC constituents in Mexico Private Sector Assessment
are also consistent with the private
sector’s assessment of the most Natural Disasters 60%
prominent threats in-country. OSAC
Petty Crime 59%
constituents indicated that natural
disasters – possibly influenced by the Armed Robbery 59%
7.1 magnitude earthquake in Mexico Transportation Insecurity 57%
City on September 19 – armed robbery, Corruption 50%
petty street crime, and transportation
Kidnapping 49%
security are the top concerns for
employees and private sector Extortion 48%
operations in Mexico. Conversely, the Cartel Violence 48%
threat of murder ranked among the Bystander Violence 46%
bottom three prominent security threats.
Carjacking 41%

Of note, kidnapping, cartel-related Cargo Theft 37%

violence, and bystander (wrong Drug Trafficking 26%
place/wrong time) violence are Burglary of Business 25%
assessed to be more prominent risks in
Protests 19%
Mexico than actually occur, as indicated
by survey respondents. Much like Vandalism 17%
homicides, these cartel-related threats Intellectual Property Theft 16%
may seem more common to OSAC Sexual Assault 15%
constituents – and particularly
Murder 14%
temporary travelers – due to the
frequent focus of media reporting on Looting 9%
DTO criminal tactics and their influence Bombing 1%
on the security environment in Mexico.

Beyond Murder: Crime Threats & Trends

For a holistic picture of the current security situation in Mexico, national trends of crimes that OSAC
constituents indicate more commonly affect their operations – to include robbery, extortion, and fraud –
have also been examined. Unlike the current and steady increase in homicides, these categories of crime
have not experienced any major spikes in 2017 or the previous two years. Analysis of these crime trends
indicates a more stable operating environment, and is likely part of the justification that OSAC
constituents do not perceive a major deterioration in Mexico’s overall security.

Robbery

59% of survey respondents assessed petty theft and armed robbery to be among the top three security
concerns for Mexico, and incidents of cell phone theft, pickpocketing, and burglary are among the most
common reported by OSAC constituents in Mexico. The following graph displays the trend from 1997-
2016 for violent and non-violent robbery across Mexico. These reported incidents include crimes that
occurred in private residences, businesses, private vehicles, on public transportation, and against
pedestrians.

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Reported Robberies: National

1997-2016

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000
Non-Violent Robbery
400,000
Violent Robbery
300,000

200,000

100,000

0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

At the national level, reports of non-violent robbery incidents are typically much more frequent than violent
robbery incidents. 1998 is the only year on record when reported violent robbery incidents (301,512)
surpassed those of non-violent incidents (291,769). Since 2003, the number of reported non-violent
robberies has doubled or tripled the numbers of reported violent robberies.

Once again, 2011 had the highest number of violent (243,831) and non-violent (509,611) robberies, in
addition to having the previously mentioned highest number of recorded homicides. Trends in homicide
can at times be indicative of those in violent and non-violent crime, which steadily declined after 2011 but
began to rise again in 2016. It is possible the increasing number of homicides has also been
accompanied by more instances of violent and non-violent robberies. It is also possible that victims are
more compelled to report robberies, given current perceptions of Mexico’s security environment.

Unlike homicides, the number of petty and armed theft incidents for Mexico in 2017 has not surpassed
the record levels reached in 2011 thus far. However, the number of violent incidents reported from May to
August 2017 has nearly matched those of 2011, which continues to lead record-highs. Non-violent crime
levels in 2017 remain steadily below those of 2011.
Violent & Non-Violent Street Crime: National
2011 vs. 2017
50000

40000

30000

20000

10000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011 Violent Crime 2011 Non-Violent Crime

2017 Violent Crime 2017 Non-Violent Crime

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Extortion

48% of survey respondents also assessed extortion to be a prominent threat impacting OSAC
constituents in Mexico. Telephonic extortion has become a particular concern over the past few years;
30% percent of survey respondents reported being affected by telephonic extortion “sometimes” and 12%
indicated “frequent” impact. Telephonic extortion has become such a prevalent threat in some areas of
Mexico that multiple OSAC organizations have distributed user-guides to employees containing best
practices in the event an extortion call is received.

In-person extortion appears to be a less frequent occurrence than telephonic;19% of survey respondents
also indicated being “rarely” impacted by in-person extortion threats, and 9% were “sometimes.” In-person
extortion attempts are more commonly leveraged against locally employed staff, as it is easy to track their
work schedules, commutes, and accompanying routines. OSAC constituents assess in-person extortion
poses a larger threat to their local employees than to Americans or other short-term foreigner travelers.

In-person extortion is also a security threat to overland travel; roadblocks are a common tactic used by
criminal organizations to stop travelers for payment. Extortion roadblocks are frequently reported in the
states of Veracruz, Campeche, and Tabasco. Some sources indicate roadblocks have increased in
frequency and amount of money demanded over the last few years.

SEGOB defines extortion within property crimes, although there is no distinction between telephonic or in-
person incidents. Reported extortion incidents nation-wide peaked in 2013 and have been steadily
declining since.
Extortion: National
1997-2016
8213
8000
5500
3000
500

Given the ongoing decline in reported extortion incidents, there is currently no indication 2017 will deviate
from that trend. There are approximately 207 fewer extortion incidents in 2017 than were reported in
2013. However, while extortion levels may not be emulating those of record-highs, it is important to keep
in mind that these crimes continue to impact the U.S. private sector operating in Mexico.
Extortion: National
2013 vs. 2017
900

700
2013
500
2017
300

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Fraud

Fraud is also defined as a property crime in Mexico, and remains prominent security concern for OSAC
constituents. SEGOB does not break down additional categories of fraud; for the purposes of this report,
fraud fulfills a broad definition to include crimes committed against businesses and individuals in an
attempt to result in financial gain by the perpetrator. The number of annual fraud incidents likely remains
high each year due to this all-encompassing definition.

Fraud incidents in Mexico have steadily increased from initial reporting in 1997, with a major jump from
2008 to 2009. Fraud statistics peaked in 2010, and have averaged around 63,058 annual incidents from
2011 to 2016. Trends in reported fraud incidents do not appear to be influenced by spikes or lapses in
other types of crimes, to include homicide and extortion.

Fraud: National
1997-2016

70376
70000

60000

50000

40000

It is likely that fraud incidents in 2017 will also maintain a steady trend; the number of monthly incidents
this year has averaged 1,048 less cases per month than the peak in 2010. Although 2017 is not an
exceptional year for fraud cases in Mexico, it is another crime that continues to affect OSAC constituents
with operations in-country.
Fraud: National
2010 vs. 2017
7000

6000
2010
5000 2017

4000

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

Conclusions

Homicide trends indicate 2017 is on track to conclude as Mexico’s deadliest year in the last two decades,
heavily driven by violence associated with the drug trafficking war. While the security situation is
occasionally reported to impact innocent bystanders and tourists to Mexico, OSAC constituents suggest a
different outlook. Many U.S. private sector organizations that have maintained long-term operations in
Mexico do not consider 2017 to be an anomaly for threats.

As the security environment of Mexico's 32 states is localized, increasing homicide rates have varying
impact. Many states with the highest per capita homicide rates in 2017 have had the highest per capita
homicide rate for multiple years, and are frequently associated with a larger cartel presence. Private
sector operations in these areas are well-informed of the DTO presence and corresponding threats, and
commonly implement area-specific security policies to mitigate the impact to their employees. This can
include deeming routes of overland travel and public transportation off-limits, implementing curfew, and
using unarmed security guards at work facilities.

The areas of Mexico generating new concern in 2017 – to include Baja California, Baja California Sur,
and Quintana Roo – are important to monitor given the increase in violence and the potential for crossfire
incidents. But despite the increase in homicides, OSAC organizations with both long-term operations
and/or temporary travelers to these states have not made major changes to their security posture. Many
continue to use the same vetted hotels and transportation arrangements, and only a few noted the
security situation in these tourist areas has generated additional pre-departure security briefings for
travelers. As mentioned, only 11% of survey respondents implemented new travel restrictions during
2017, many of which still do not apply to the tourist areas.

The U.S. private sector continues to assess crimes other than homicides as more prominent threats to
their employees and operations in Mexico. Many of these threats – to include armed robbery, petty theft,
extortion, and fraud – have been longtime factors of overseas operations and not new or unique
challenges in 2017. Government of Mexico data also indicates these types of crimes are following more
stable trends, and not experiencing the same increase in incidents during 2017 as homicides. Popular
mitigation measures of using verified transportation, having local handlers/guides, and limiting travel to go
and no-go areas continue to help mitigate against these common threats. Often, travelers and local staff
are reminded to use the same situational awareness best practices in Mexico that they would use in any
other urban environment.

92% of survey respondents said they did not suspend any operations in Mexico due to increasing security
concerns in 2017, and 79% said they did not defer new investment or expansion. Given that homicide
and the potential for bystander violence are reported at a very low frequency, the impact of increasing
murders across Mexico is minimally affecting U.S. private sector operations. Overall, the increasing
homicide rate is also not changing OSAC constituent perceptions of the security environment in Mexico.
Mitigating measures that have proven successful for U.S. private sector organizations in the past are still
proving successful in 2017.

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.
 2017 Annual Briefing
Mexico’s Deadliest Year on Record

For Further Information

For more information on security in the Western Hemisphere region, please contact OSAC’s Western
Hemisphere Team.

Mexico Travel Warning

Government of Mexico Resources

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)

Secretaría de Seguridad Pública (SSP)

The contents of this (U) presentation in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of
State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation
was compiled from various open sources and (U) embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S.
private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent
with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support.