Global Economic Briefing:

Central Bank Balance Sheets

Yardeni Research, Inc.

May 22, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Mali Quintana
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Total Assets of Major Central Banks 1-4
Fed Balance Sheet 5
ECB Balance Sheet 6
ECB & BOJ Balance Sheets 7
PBOC 8
US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks 9
Total Assets 10

May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Total Assets of Major Central Banks
Figure 1.
6.0 6.0
MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS: TOTAL ASSETS
(trillion dollars, nsa)
5.5 5.5

5.0 5.0
Fed (Apr=4.3)
4.5 ECB (Apr=5.6) 4.5
BOJ (Apr=5.0)
4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0

yardeni.com
.5 .5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.
17 17
MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS: TOTAL ASSETS
(trillion dollars, nsa)
15 Apr 15

13 13
Total of
Fed, ECB, BOJ (14.9)
11 11

9 9

7 7

5 5

yardeni.com
3 3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 1 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Total Assets of Major Central Banks
Figure 3.
3.0 3.0
MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS: TOTAL ASSETS
(yearly change, trillion dollars)
2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 Apr 1.5

1.0 1.0

.5 .5

.0 .0

yardeni.com
-.5 -.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.
3000 16
S&P 500 INDEX & QE
2800 Apr 15
5/22
QE1 QE2 QE3
2600 14

13
2400
12
2200
11
2000
10
1800
S&P 500 Index 9
1600
8
Total of
1400 Fed, ECB, BOJ 7
1200
6

1000 5

800 4
yardeni.com
600 3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Note: QE1 (11/25/08) = Fed starts buying $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/2009) = Fed starts buying $300bn in Treasuries.
QE2 (11/3/10) = Fed starts buying $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended).
QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

Page 2 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Total Assets of Major Central Banks
Figure 5.
60 60
MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS: TOTAL ASSETS
(yearly percent change)
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

Apr
10 10

0 0

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-10 -10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 6.
120 120
TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS
(as a percent of local currency nominal GDP)

100 100
Q1
Fed (Q1=21.9)
ECB (Q4=38.9)
80 BOJ (Q1=96.6) 80

60 60

40 Q4 40

Q1
20 20

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0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Total Assets of Major Central Banks
Figure 7.
23 5.8
22 TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS ECB Apr
5.5
21 (all in trillions of US dollars)
Apr 5.2
20
19 4.9
18
Total Total (5.6) 4.6
17 Assets* (20.5) 4.3
16
15 4.0
14 3.7
13
3.4
12
11 3.1
10 2.8
9
2.5
8
7 2.2
6 1.9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.0 6.2
TOTAL ASSETS PBOC
4.6
5.7
Apr Apr
4.2
Fed (4.3) 5.2
3.8 Total (5.6)
3.4 4.7
3.0
4.2
2.6

2.2 3.7

1.8
3.2
1.4
2.7
1.0
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.6 2.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.2 16
BOJ Apr
4.8 Apr 15
14
4.4
13
4.0
Total (5.0) Total 12
3.6 Excluding 11
PBOC (14.9)
3.2 10
2.8 9

2.4 8
7
2.0
6
1.6
5
1.2 4
.8 3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

*Includes US, ECB, Bank of Japan, and PBOC.

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Fed Balance Sheet
Figure 8.
4.5 5.0
FED’S ASSETS* FED’S LIABILITIES*
5/16
4.0 (trillion dollars) (trillion dollars) 4.5
5/16
3.5 4.0

3.0 3.5

2.5 3.0

2.0 US Treasuries + 2.5

Agency Debt +
1.5 MBS Total 2.0
Liquidity Facilities
1.0 1.5

.5 1.0

.0 .5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2.7 3.0

2.4 5/16 2.7

2.4
2.1

5/16 2.1
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
.9
.9
US Treasury Securities Reserve Balances
.6 with Fed .6
Agency Debt + MBS (Depository Institutions’
.3 Deposits at Fed) .3

.0 .0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
.8 1.64
5/16 1.60
1.56
1.52
.6 1.48
1.44
1.40
1.36
Central Bank 1.32
.4 Liquidity Swaps 1.28
Other Loans 1.24
1.20
1.16
.2 1.12
1.08
1.04
Federal Reserve Notes 1.00
.96
.0 5/16 .92
.88
.84
yardeni.com .80
.76
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
*Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesdays.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Page 5 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 ECB Balance Sheet
Figure 9.
4800 2200
5/18 SELECTED LIABILITIES 5/18 2000
4400
(billion euros) Deposit 1800
4000 Facility
Euro Area 1600
3600 ECB Credit 1400
3200 (billion euros) (4561.6) Institutions 1200
in Euro
2800 1000
2400 800
600
2000
400
1600 200
1200 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1350 460
1250 Liabilities to Other
Lending to Euro Area Euro Area 400
1150 Credit Institutions in Euro Residents 5/18
1050 in Euro 340
950 280
850
750 5/18 220

650 160
550
100
450
350 40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3000 1200
5/18 5/18
Securities of Euro Area
Residents in Euro Bank Notes
2000 General Govt Debt in Circulation 1000
Denominated in Euro

1000 800

0 600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

800 1200
Foreign Reserves
Including Gold Miscellaneous
600 5/18 Liabilities* 5/18 1000

400 800

Claims on Euro Area

200 Residents in 600
Foreign Currency

yardeni.com
0 400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

* Total liabilities minus sum of lending to euro area credit institutions in euro, liabilities to other euro area residents in euro, and bank notes in circulation.
Source: European Central Bank.

Page 6 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 ECB & BOJ Balance Sheets
Figure 10.
3.1 3.1
2.8 ECB: HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 5/18 2.8
2.5 (trillion euros, ratio scale) 2.5
2.2 2.2
1.9 1.9
1.6 1.6
1.3 1.3
D NIRP QE QEE
1.0 Securities of Euro Area 1.0
Residents in Euro

.7 .7

.4 .4

yardeni.com
.1 .1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7/26/12). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (6/5/2014).
QE (1/22/15). QEE = expansion and extension of QE (3/10/16, corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16).
Source: European Central Bank.

Figure 11.
350 350
JAPAN: RESERVE BALANCES Apr
Z
AT BOJ
(trillion yen, reserve adjusted)
300 300

250 250
yardeni.com

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.

Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.
Source: Bank of Japan.

Page 7 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 PBOC
Figure 12.
6.2 6.2
5.7 PBOC ASSETS Apr 5.7
5.2 5.2
4.7 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 4.7
4.2 4.2
3.7 3.7
3.2 3.2
2.7 2.7
2.2 2.2

1.7 1.7

1.2 1.2

.7 .7

Total Assets (5.6)

Foreign Exchange Assets (3.4)
Nongold International Reserves
Held by China (IMF data) (3.1)

yardeni.com
.2 .2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.

Figure 13.
85 85
PBOC ASSETS
(percent)
80 80

75 Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets 75

70 70

65 65

Apr
60 60

55 55

50 50

45 45

40 40

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35 35
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.

Page 8 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks
Figure 14.
3400 3400
US TREASURIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS
3200 (billion dollars) 3200

3000 5/16 3000

2800 2800

2600 Held by Fed 2600

2400
Foreign Official 2400
Dollar Reserves*
2200 2200

2000 2000

1800 1800

1600 1600

1400 1400

1200 1200

1000 1000

800 800

600 600
yardeni.com
400 400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.

Figure 15.
2005 2005
US AGENCIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS
(billion dollars)

1505 Held by Fed (1749.4) 1505

Foreign Official Dollar Reserves* (275.6)

1005 1005

505 505

5/9

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5 5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.

Page 9 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Total Assets
Figure 16.
5.0 5.0
4.6 TOTAL ASSETS 4.6
4.2 Apr 4.2
3.8 3.8
3.4 Fed 3.4
(trillion dollars) (4.3)
3.0 3.0
2.6 2.6
2.2 2.2
1.8 1.8
1.4 1.4
1.0 1.0
.6 .6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

4800 4800
Apr
4400 4400
4000 4000
3600 ECB 3600
3200 (billion euros) (4554.3) 3200
2800 2800
2400 2400
2000 2000
1600 1600
1200 1200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

600 600
550 Apr 550
500 500
450 450
400 400
BOJ
350 (billion yen) (535.1) 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

40 40

35 Apr 35

30 PBOC 30
(trillion yuan) (35.3)
25 25

20 20

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15 15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Souce: Haver Analytics.

Page 10 / May 22, 2018 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets Yardeni Research, Inc.
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