Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Andreas Schedler*
ABSTRACT
After its successful transition to democracy, Mexico has experienced an
epidemic of organized societal violence known as the drug war that, to
date, has caused well over 100,000 casualties. Most of this violence has
been consigned to oblivion, without proper investigation or prosecution.
Victims have been organizing and protesting, yet ordinary citizens have
remained quiet, except for two short lived waves of nationwide protest.
As I hypothesize, a primary reason for their acquiescence is cognitive. The
framing of organized violence as a self-contained war among criminals
(“bounded violence”) erodes the attitudinal foundation of citizen solidarity
and sympathy with the victims of injustice. I explore the cognitive founda-
tions of citizen attitudes towards victims on the basis of original data from
the Mexican 2013 National Survey on Organized Violence. Logistic regres-
sion analysis confirms the expected framing effect. Even when controlling
for alternative explanations, such as personal proximity to violence and
social proximity to its victims, the notion of bounded violence within a
criminal community induces citizens to view its victims with indifference.
* Andreas Schedler is Professor of Political Science at the Center for Economic Teaching
and Research (CIDE) in Mexico City. His most recent book publications are The Politics of
Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism (Oxford University Press,
2013) and En la niebla de la guerra: Los ciudadanos ante la violencia criminal organizada
[In the Fog of War: Citizens and Organized Criminal Violence in Mexico] (CIDE, 2015).
Human Rights Quarterly 38 (2016) 1038–1069 © 2016 by Johns Hopkins University Press
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1039
I. INTRODUCTION
discomforting questions (even when they avoid them).2 What do they know?
What should they know? What do they want to know? How much do they
care? How do they relate to victims and perpetrators? Whom do they sym-
pathize with? Which acts of violence do they condemn, which condone?
What can they do to stop or alleviate the suffering of victims? What do they
actually do? These questions touch the essence of political solidarity, which
is: citizens’ willingness to assist the victims of severe and systematic injustice.
Whether they recognize it or not, citizens face such questions whenever
direct human intervention by either public or private actors produces suffer-
ing and death on a massive scale: under repressive dictatorship, in the face
of genocide, in civil war, and in epidemics of criminal violence.
A. Attitudinal Foundations
More often than not, citizens fail to meet the high demands of political
solidarity. They fail their responsibility to protect their co-citizens. They let
atrocities run their course, know little, care little, and do little about the
fate of victims. Even worse, citizens often act in opportunistic ways, taking
personal advantage of acts of injustice; in a complicit manner, encouraging
victimization by omission or commission; or collaboratively, participating
directly in the organization of violence and injustice. Still, the history of
violence and injustice is also a history of resistance to violence and injustice.
In contexts of harsh repression, acts of solidarity carry extreme risks. They
are no less than heroic and nevertheless do take place, even under the most
improbable conditions.3
What explains empirical variations in political solidarity? When are
citizens able and willing to mobilize the moral resources of solidarity? By
contrary, when do they refuse to assist co-citizens who suffer from injustice?
Since most of contemporary political science comprehends political actors
as acting under the primacy of self interest, the discipline has paid scarce
attention to moral interventions in the face of injustice. Modern political sci-
ence is not a science of solidarity, but one of utility. Reflections on political
solidarity have been largely left to normative political theorists,4 historians
2. I use the notion of “human rights violations” in a broad way that covers public as
well as private perpetrators. See, e.g., Tristan Anne Borer, A Taxonomy of Victims and
Perpetrators: Human Rights and Reconciliation in South Africa, 25 Hum. Rts. Q. 1088
(2003). Similarly, I use the notion of “citizens” in a wide, minimalistic way, as members
of a modern territorial state (which may be dictatorial or failing), rather than carriers of
rights in an effective democratic polity.
3. See Arno Lustiger, Rettungswiderstand: Uber Die Judenretter in Europa Während der NS-Zeit
(2011).
4. See, e.g., Hauke Brunkhorst, Solidarity: From Civic Friendship to a Global Legal Community
(Jeffrey Flynn trans. 2005); Richard Rorty, Contingency, Irony, and Solidarity (1989).
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1041
B. Sources of Sympathy
5. See, e.g. Peter Longerich, “Davon Haben wir Nichts Gewusst!” Die Deutschen und die Juden-
verfolgung 1933–1945 (2006).
6. For a synthesis, see Sally J. Scholz, Political Solidarity 2–16 (2008).
7. See, e.g. Albert Bandura, Claudio Barbaranelli, Gian Vittorio Caprara, & Concetta
Pastorelli, Mechanisms of Moral Disengagement in the Exercise of Moral Agency, 71 J.
Personality & Soc. Psychology 364 (1996).
8. See. e.g. Israel W. Charny, A Classification of Denials of the Holocaust and Other
Genocides,” 5 J. Genocide Res. 11 (2003); Stanley Cohen, States of Denial: Knowing about
Atrocities and Suffering (2001).
9. See, e.g. Amanda B. Nickerson, Danielle Mele, & Dana Princiotta, Attachment and
Empathy as Predictors of Roles as Defenders or Outsiders in Bullying Interactions, 46 J.
School Psych’gy 687 (2008); Pozzoli, Tiziana & Gianluca Gini, Why Do Bystanders of
Bullying Help or Not? A Multidimensional Model, 33 J. Early Adolescence 315 (2013).
10. “Sympathy,” Oxford Dictionary of English (3d ed. 2014), available at http://www.oxfor-
dreference.com.
11. Brunkhorst, supra note 4, at 2.
1042 HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY Vol. 38
12. Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism
(2006).
13. See, e.g., Gresham M. Sykes & David Matza, Techniques of Neutralization: A Theory
of Delinquency, 22 Am. Sociological Rev. 664 (1957); David A. Grossman, On Killing: The
Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society (1995).
14. Pozzoli & Gini, supra note 9, at 320.
15. Scholz, supra note 6, at 6.
16. See, e.g. Melvin J. Lerner, The Belief in a Just World: A Fundamental Delusion (1980)
17. See, e.g,. id.; William Ryan, Blaming the Victim (1971).
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1043
Both are barbarians, neither of them merits support. The classic example
is the neutrality of moderate actors in the face of revolutionary warfare. In
such situations of ideological polarization, neutral actors draw an equation
between warring parties: all commit atrocities, none is justified.18 In situations
of nonpolitical violence, neutral actors draw an equation between victims
and perpetrators: they are all criminals, no one is innocent.
In 2006 after a close and contentious election, PAN’s Felipe Calderón as-
sumed the presidency amid a lingering security crisis. During Fox’s term in
office, violent competition among drug-trafficking organizations (so-called
cartels) provoked more than a thousand homicides per year, and the number
was rising. Although it had not been an issue during the election campaign,
President Calderón decided to make the fight against drug cartels the defining
policy of his presidency, only to see that fight turn into his term’s defining
failure. During his six years in office, violence escalated both qualitatively
and quantitatively.
18. See, e.g., Elisabeth Jean Wood, Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador
208–212 (2003).
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1045
Sources: For 2001–2006: General Attorney’s Office, cited in Marcos Pablo Moloeznik, “Mili-
tarizing Mexico’s Public Security” (Washington, dc: National Defense University, Center for
Hemispheric Defense Studies), chds Regional Insights 11 (15 February 2009). For 2007–2010:
Presidency of the Republic, “Dataset of Deaths by Presumptive Criminal Rivalry.” For Janu-
ary–September 2011: General Attorney’s Office, “Dataset of Deaths by Presumptive Criminal
Rivalry” (http://www.pgr.gob.mx). For October 2011–December 2015: Eduardo Guerrero, Lantia
Consultores, “Dataset of Violence by Organized Crime” (http://www.lantiaconsultores.com/).
a) Sympathy b) Complicity
c) Polarization
d) Detachment
19. The number of disappeared persons is estimated to lie around 22,000. Sandra Jessica
Ley Gutiérrez, Citizens in Fear: Political Participation and Voting Behavior in the Midst
of Violence, Durham, Duke University, Department of Political Science, Ph.D. Dis-
sertation, at Ch. 5 (2014). On disappearances and mass graves (“narcofosas”) related
to organized crime, see also Cory Molzahn, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, & David A. Shirk,
Trans-Border Institute, Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego, Drug
Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis through 2012, at 18–19 (2013).
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1047
When confrontations between armed groups within a state cause more than
a thousand “battle-related deaths” per year, conflict scholars speak of “civil
war.” At least since 2001, democratic Mexico has experienced levels of
“internal war” that surpass this conventional threshold. Classic conceptions
of civil war require that the parties in conflict are “politically and militarily
organized, and . . . have publicly stated political objectives.” 20 The Mexi-
can drug war is different. It is not a political civil war in which ideological
insurgencies fight to topple state power or transform the political regime.
It rather looks like a prototypical “new” civil war, fought for material gain
and not social justice.21
Yet if this is a war, it is not one but many. Its major lines of conflict run
between criminal enterprises. Many perhaps most, acts of private coercion
are hostile acts within a multilateral war among competing cartels. Yet while
the so-called drug war entails various interacting nonstate conflicts, it also
contains elements of one-sided violence that criminals unleash against civil-
ians. Profit-oriented participation in illicit markets forms only a portion of
organized crime’s activity. The drug cartels are also massively engaged in
predatory crimes involving unilateral violence against civilians. Organized
homicides have only been the tip of the violent iceberg. As criminal orga-
nizations have diversified their activities, the country has seen the dramatic
expansion of kidnapping, human trafficking, and extortion (mafia-like protec-
tion rackets).22 In addition, as the cartels wage a guerrilla war against state
20. Nicholas Sambanis, What Is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an
Operational Definition, 48 J. Conflict Res. 814, 829 (2004).
21. See Luis de la Calle & Andreas Schedler, Political and Economic Civil Wars, 111th An-
nual Meeting, American Political Science Association (APSA), San Francisco (3–6 Sept.
2015). For a critical discussion, see Stathis N. Kalyvas, How Civil Wars Help Explain
Organized Crime—and How They Do Not, J. Conflict Res. 1 (2015). Seminal texts on
“new” civil wars have been, among others, Hans Magnus Enzensberger, Aussichten auf den
Bürgerkrieg (1996), Mary Kaldor, New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era
(2d ed. 2007); Stathis N. Kalyvas, “New” and “Old” Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction?,
54 World Pol. 99 (2001).
22. See, e.g., Héctor Aguilar Camín, Eduardo Guerrero, Alejandro Madrazo, Andrés Lajous, Jorge
Hernández Tinajero, Joel Chávez, & Dante Haro, Informe Jalisco: Más allá de la Guerra de las
Drogas 93–95 (2012), available at https://seplan.app.jalisco.gob.mx/biblioteca/archivo/
play/580; Marcelo Bergman, La Violencia en México: Algunas Aproximaciones Aca-
démicas, 40 Desacatos 65, 70–72 (2012); Carlos Bravo, Marc Grau Vidiella , & Gerardo
Maldonado Hernández , Elecciones, Violencia y Estructura Social (EVES): Base de Datos Integral
de Municipios Mexicanos 33–34 (2014), available at http://www.ine.mx/docs/IFE–v2/CDD/
CDD-estructura/DOCS/Informe_Final_TomoI-BaseEVES.pdf; Edgardo Buscaglia, México
Pierde la Guerra, Esquire (Mar. 2010), Panorama Estadístico de la Violencia en México (Carlos
Javier Echarri Cánovas ed., 2012), available at http://cedua.colmex.mx/images/PDFs/
echarri/panorama.pdf; OAS Hemispheric Security Observatory, Report on Citizen Security in
the Americas 2012, at 70–75 (2012) , available at https://adamblackwell.files.wordpress.
com/2015/06/report-on-citizen-security-2012.pdf.
1048 HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY Vol. 38
23. Stathis N. Kalyvas, Civil Wars, in Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics 416, 423 (Carles
Boix & Susan Stokes eds., 2007).
24. Casualty figures from Molzahn, Rodríguez & Shirk, supra note 19, at 30. On state abuse
and collusion, see, e.g., Amnesty International, Nuevos Informes de de Derechos Humanos A
Manos del Ejército (2009), available at http://amnistia.org.mx/abusosmilitares/informe.pdf,
Amnesty Int’l, Known Abusers, but Victims Ignored: Torture and Ill-Treatment in Mexico (2012),
available at http://www.amnestyusa.org/sites/default/files/mexico_torture_-_report_eng.
pdf, Amnesty Int’l, Enfrentarse a una Pesadilla: La Desaparición de Personas en México (2013),
available at http://amnistia.org.mx/nuevo/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Enfrentarse_a_
una_pesadilla_La-desaparici%C3%B3n_de-personas_en_M%C3%A9xico.pdf; Article
19, Silencio forzado: El Estado, Cómplice de la Violencia contra la Prensa en México: Informe
2011 (2012), available at https://www.ifex.org/mexico/2012/03/20/article19informe2011.
pdf, Article 19, Doble Asesinato: La Prensa Entre la Violencia y la Impunidad: Informe 2012
(2013), available at http://articulo19.org/informe2012/, Human Rights Watch, (HRW),
Uniform Impunity: Mexico’s Misuse of Military Justice to Prosecute Abuses in Counternarcotis
and Public Security Operations (2009); HRW, Neither Rights Nor Security: Killings, Torture,
and Disappearances in Mexico’s “War on Drugs” (2011); HRW, Mexico’s Disappeared: The
Enduring Cost of a Crisis Ignored (2013). On information problems in irregular wars, see
Stathis N. Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War (2006).
25. Andreas Schedler, En la niebla de la guerra: Los ciudadanos ante la violencia criminal organizada
60–70 (2015).
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1049
While the dynamics of organized criminal violence have been opaque and
expansionary, prevailing public discourse has treated it as transparent and
self-contained. In political debate and academic analysis inside as well as
outside the country, the epidemic of organized violence is conventionally
described as a “drug war” among criminal organizations that compete for
the control of transnational and local drug markets. It appears as a kind of
extraterritorial battle in which life-long members of a homogeneous, self-
enclosed social group (called “criminals” or “delinquents”) torture, kill, and
abduct each other. In this predominant perspective, which has been shaken
but not shattered in more recent years, violence is bounded. It is an exclusive
affair among professional criminals. In particular under the presidency of
Felipe Calderón (2006 to 2012), official discourse produced and reproduced
such a simple message of selective, self-contained criminal violence: the
war is about bad guys killing each other.
More than 90 percent of the homicides and executions, as we have been clas-
sifying them, derive from the fight of some cartels against others.26
More than 90 percent of the people who have died had connections with one
or the other band, be it that they distribute or transport drugs or because they
are retailers, people who have a small grocery shop, or repair tires, or are taxi
drivers, and who are known in their communities to be in the business of dis-
tribution, which is precisely the market those groups fight over.27
The notion of bounded criminal violence has not been exclusive to top
government circles. Lower-level officials have embraced it, too. Victim fami-
lies have given countless testimonies of state officials who treated them with
disdain and refused to investigate their cases under the speculative suspicion
that their murdered or disappeared family member had been connected to
criminal groups.28 In the public sphere too, even media outlets critical of
the government like the weekly Proceso habitually describe the presumptive
26. Jorge Ramos, Muertes de Civiles son las Menos: fch, El Universal, 16 Apr. 2010, avail-
able at http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/673331.html..
27. Felipe Calderón, El Presidente Felipe Calderón en la Inauguración de la 72 Convención
Bancaria México Ante la Crisis Financiera Mundial (19 Mar. 2009), available at http://
calderon.presidencia.gob.mx/2009/03/el-presidente-calderon-en-la-inauguracion-de-
la-72-convencion-bancaria-mexico-ante-la-crisis-financiera-mundial-oportunidades-y-
desafios/.
28. See, e.g., Amnesty Int’l, Known Abusers, but Victims Ignored, supra note 24, at 12; Amnesty
Int’l, Enfrentarse a una Pesadilla, supra note 24, at 6, John Gibler, Tinta Contra el Silen-
cio, in Entre las Cenizas: Historias de Vida en Tiempos de Muerte 127, 139 (Marcela Turati &
Daniela Rea eds., 2012); Human Rights Watch (2013), supra note 24, at 2, 5; Marcela
Turati, Tras las pistas de los desaparecidos, in Entre las cenizas: Historias de vida en tiempos
de muerte 101, 107–08 (Marcela Turati & Daniela Rea eds., 2012).
1050 HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY Vol. 38
A. Political Injustice
29. See Julieta Lemaitre, Civilization, Barbarism, and the War on Drugs: The Normalization
of Violent Death in Mexico and Colombia, 109th Annual Meeting, American Political
Science Association (APSA), Chicago, IL (29 Aug.–1 Sept. 2013).
30. HRW, Neither Rights Nor Security, supra note 24, at 15.
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1051
B. Strategies of Survival
How have Mexican citizens responded to the epidemic of death and injustice
in their fledgling democracy? The direct and indirect victims of crime have
responded in many ways. Individually, they have mostly sought refuge in
exit strategies, such as changing their place of residence (internal and inter-
national migration), shutting down business operations in the face of extor-
tion, or shutting themselves up in their homes.37 Collectively, their responses
31. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Global Study on Homicide 2013:
Trends, Contexts, Data 35 (2014).
32. Moisés Naím, La Gente más Asesina del Mundo, El País 15 Dec. 2012, available at http://
internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/12/15/actualidad/1355593439_417099.
html.
33. Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Chile, Haiti, and Uruguay. OAS, supra note 22, Table
1.2.
34. UNODC, supra note 31, at 94.
35. Id.
36. Id. at 5.
37. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (inegi), Encuesta Nacional de Victimización y
Percepción sobre Seguridad Pública (envipe) 2014: Principales Resultados 39 (2014), available
at http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/encuestas/hogares/regulares/envipe/
envipe2014/doc/envipe2014_nal.pdf.
1052 HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY Vol. 38
38. Under the heading of “sites for peace” (sitios por la paz), the webpage of the Movement
for Peace with Justice and Dignity offers a collection of links to like-minded associations
See http://movimientoporlapaz.mx/.
39. See, e.g., Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, & David A. Shirk, Drug Violence in
Mexico: Data and Analysis through 2013, at 46–47 (2014).
40. Steven Dudley & Sandra Rodríguez, Civil Society, the Government and the Development
of Citizen Security, San Diego: University of San Diego, Working Paper Series on Civil
Engagement and Public Security in Mexico 5 (2013).
41. On civil society’s responses to organized criminal violence in Mexico, see Dudley &
Rodríguez, supra note 40; Vanessa Job, La Resistencia Cibernética, in Entre las Cenizas:
Historias de Vida en Tiempos de Muerte 147 (Marcela Turati & Daniela Rea eds., 2012); Lil-
ian Paola Ovalle, Imágenes Abyectas e Invisibilidad de las Víctimas: Narrativas Visuales
de la Violencia en México, 164 El Cotidiano 103 (2010); Ley Gutiérrez, supra note 19,
ch. 5; Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, Civic Engagement and the Judicial Reform: The Role
of Civil Society in Reforming Criminal Justice in Mexico, San Diego: University of San
Diego, Working Paper Series on Civil Engagement and Public Security in Mexico (2013);
Reynaldo T. Rojo-Mendoza, From Victims to Activists: Crime Victimization, Social Support, and
Political Participation in Mexico (2013); Lauren Villagran, The Victims’ Movement in Mexico,
San Diego: University of San Diego, Working Paper Series on Civil Engagement and
Public Security in Mexico (2013). For a general argument on the causal role of crime
victimization in political participation, see Regina Bateson, Crime Victimization and
Political Participation, 106 Am. Pol. Sci. Rev. 570 (2012).
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1053
C. Waves of Mobilization
42. The documentary film Luisa Riley, Javier Sicilia: En la Soledad del Otro (Canal 22, 2013),
available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XujUvo2EduA, reconstructs the move-
ment’s cathartic first months.
43. In particular, it appears highly implausible that the cremation of forty-three bodies, more
than two tons of human flesh and bones, could have taken place under the conditions
described by official witness declarations. See, e.g., Centro Nacional de Comunicación
Social, Científicos Desmienten a PGR por Quema de Normalistas (11 Dec. 2014), avail-
able at http://www.cencos.org/comunicacion/cientificos-desmienten-a-pgr.
1054 HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY Vol. 38
confined to the victims’ friends and family and to a hard core of disruptive
protesters in Guerrero and neighboring Oaxaca.
Even though injustice runs deep, the obstacles to solidarity with the victims
of organized violence are high. The sheer numbers of victims exceed human
emotional capacities. With few exceptions, both victims and perpetrators
have remained anonymous, with the media reporting aggregate figures,
rather than reconstructing individual cases. Responsibilities are diffuse and
opaque, which leaves potential protests without clear addressees. Under
the shadow of retaliatory violence, the risks of collective action are high. In
the face of unresponsive bureaucracies, its prospects of success are meager.
I do not deny the potential weight of these and other inhibiting factors.
Here though, I wish to explore one cognitive factor I expect to undermine
citizen sympathies towards victims: the idea of self-contained violence that
equates victims with perpetrators by placing both into the same category
of criminal actors.
Why should we expect the cognitive frame of bounded criminal violence
to undermine citizen solidarity towards the victims of violence? The notion
of “bad guys killing bad guys” does not preclude human pity nor does it
invalidate demands for justice. As human beings, even victims who had been
cruel and unrepentant assassins deserve our pity. As citizens, all victims,
regardless of their criminal past, deserve the full protection of the law. As I
hypothesize though, the notion of bounded violence effectively undermines
citizen solidarity with victims by undermining its main cognitive prerequisite:
sympathy with victims. It presupposes that the boundary line that separates
combatants (criminals) from noncombatants (civilians) is crystal clear, while
the boundary line that separates perpetrators from victims is fuzzy. Criminals
form an imagined community distant from, or even outside of, society that
conceives itself as innocent. Both perpetrators and victims belong to a crimi-
nal community whose members are guilty of whatever happens to happen
to them. The armed conflict runs among criminal organizations who supply
the assassins and the corpses. Decent citizens have nothing to fear as long
as they stay out of their business. It is a war “among them,” not “against
us.” By blurring one social boundary (between perpetrators and victims) and
deepening another one (between criminals and decent citizens), the idea of
bounded criminal violence undermines both sources of sympathy: the status
of victims as rightful members of the community as well as their status as
victims. In essence, they appear as voluntary victims who have chosen their
fate and placed themselves outside the community of decent citizens when
they entered the world of delinquency.
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1055
By framing the war as a kind of external war among the voluntary members
of the fraternal community of organized criminals, citizens are able to retreat
to a position of detached observers. To the extent that citizens believe in
the boundedness of criminal violence, they should be inclined to maintain
a detached attitude of indifference towards its victims.
I test these empirical expectations on the basis of the Mexican 2013
National Survey on Organized Violence (ENVO) that strives to reconstruct
citizen attitudes towards the main actors of organized violence under condi-
tions of criminal civil war: perpetrators and victims, state and civil society.
ENVO is a nationally representative face-to-face survey which was carried
out in Mexico from 26 October through 30 November 2013 among adult
citizens (older than age 18). Its 2,400 interviewees were chosen through
multistage sampling based on election precincts as defined by the Federal
Electoral Institute (IFE).44 The national sample was stratified by five levels of
municipal violence (average municipal homicide rates from 2009 to 2011).
Designed by the author and jointly sponsored by the National Council of
Science and Technology (CONACYT) and IFE it was implemented by the
survey firm Data Opinión Pública y Mercados (OPM). The survey’s overall
margin of error is plus or minus 2 percent.45
Note that the survey was taken in between the two big waves of public
solidarity with victims. About two years before, Javier Sicilia’s movement
had shaken up public assumptions about guilty victims. About a year after,
the mass murder of Iguala shook up public assumptions about the innocent
state. Had the survey been taken in early 2011 or before, it would probably
have shown more widespread beliefs in the bounded nature of criminal
violence and lower levels of sympathy with its victims. Had the survey been
taken in late 2014 or afterwards, it would probably show the inverse: less
widespread beliefs in the criminal selectivity of violence and higher levels
of sympathy towards its victims. However, even if aggregate levels of public
attitudes towards organized violence and its victims are time-bound, the
causal relationships I wish to test should hold nevertheless.
How do people form their attitudes towards victims of criminal civil war?
Certainly, these attitudes derive from a complex process in which the “frames
of war” constitute only one causal factor among others.51 The Mexican Na-
48. In Spanish, the item phrasing contains an ambiguity that is hard to translate. “Mientras
uno no se meta con ellos, no pasa nada” implies two things: Nothing happens as long
as you do not join them . . . and as long as you do not get in their way.”
49. See Kalyvas, supra note 23.
50. Id. at 226–32.
51. Butler, supra note 1.
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1059
Survey question: “Talking about murders attributed to organized crime, how much do you
agree with the following statement: As long as you do not get involved with them, nothing
happens to you.”
tional Survey on Organized Violence allows us to test for two sets of rather
obvious alternative explanations: the proximity of violence and the social
proximity of victims. The former has at least two components: personal
experiences of victimization and geographic proximity to violence.
Victimization: It seems reasonable to expect that personal experiences
of victimization by criminal organizations change personal stances towards
victims. Citizens who have experienced cases of assassination or disappear-
ance inside their families, within their circles of friends, or acquaintances are
likely to be more sympathetic to victims than those who have been spared
the chilling touch of organized violence. To measure degrees of victimization
by organized crime, I constructed an aggregate “index of victimization” that
adds experiences of victimization inside the family (extortion, murder, and
disappearance) as well as within the wider circle of friends and acquaintances
(murder, disappearance, orphanage, and emigration).52
52. For more precise descriptions of this as well as all other indices and variables, see Table
A, Appendix; for descriptive statistics, see Table B.
1060 HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY Vol. 38
53. Author calculations based on homicide data by the National Health Information System
(sinais) (www.sinais.salud.gob.mx) and population data from the 2010 national census by
the National Institute for Statistics and Geography (INEGI) (www.inegi.org.mx). Note that
the World Health Organization considers violence to be “epidemic” once it surpasses
ten annual homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
54. See, e.g., Mark D. Ramirez, Punitive Sentiment, 51 Criminology 329 (2013).
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1061
55. Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined 324 (2011).
Among many others, see also Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism (1951), Butler,
supra note 1; Grossman, supra note 13.
56. Enrique Desmond Arias, Drugs and Democracy in Rio de Janeiro: Trafficking, Social Networks,
and Public Security 12 (2006).
57. Violent Democracies in Latin America (Enrique Desmond Arias & Daniel M. Goldstein eds.,
2010).
58 Arias, supra note 56, at 1.
59. See, e.g., Daniel M. Brinks, The Judicial Response to Police Killings in Latin America: Inequality
and the Rule of Law (2008); Robert Gay, Toward Uncivil Society: Causes and Consequences
of Violence in Rio de Janeiro, in Violent Democracies in Latin America, supra note 57, at
201; Ruth Stanley, “Living in a Jungle”: State Violence and Perceptions of Democracy
in Buenos Aires, supra note 57, at 133.
60. Daniela Rea, La justicia de Todos, in Entre las Cenizas: Historias de vida en Tiempos de Muerte
E. Control Variables
62. UNODC, supra note 31, at 13. On the average participation of men in the use of lethal
force in Mexico and Latin America, see, e.g., Bravo, Grau & Maldonado, supra note
22, at 79; OAS, supra note 22, Table 1.3; José Ignacio Torreblanca, El Varón, Arma de
Destrucción Masiva, El País, 26 Jan. 2014, at 29.
63. Heinle, supra note 39, at 33.
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1063
20 and 29 years.64 If the so-called drug war carries a sex and age bias,
what follows for public attitudes towards victims? Psychological studies
find women to be more empathetic than men. Yet, if simple mechanisms of
social distancing work here, we should expect both women and people of
advanced age to be less concerned about victims.
F. Regression Results
I test for the causal effects of the frame of bounded violence by regress-
ing it on dichotomous versions of all four measures of sympathy towards
victims. Table 1 shows the results of binary logistic regressions that include
my main explanatory variable, the two bundles of alternative hypotheses,
and all controls.65 The results first of all, confirm the relevance of cognitive
frames. Perceptions of bounded criminal violence carry both statistically and
substantively significant effects on each of our four indicators of sympathy
with victims. Even when controlling for everything else, each upward step on
the four-point scale of criminal selectivity depresses the odds of perspective
taking by 10 percent (eb = .89), the odds of emphatic recall by 19 percent
(eb = .81), and the odds of identification with victims’ movements by 15
percent (eb = .85). It increases the odds of calls for silence by 26 percent (eb
= 1.26). The more firmly respondents believe in the self-contained nature
of criminal violence, the more likely they are to see themselves immune
to organized violence, to show themselves unmoved by the fate of victims
and alien to their organizing efforts, and to keep debates about the war off
the political agenda.
The competing hypothesis of proximity to violence turns out to be
complementary. As expected, personal experiences of victimization are a
strong source of sympathy towards victims. Inversely, personal distance to
organized violence works as a strong inhibitor of such sympathies (except
for assessments of victims’ movements, which are unrelated). Victims feel
closer to victims, and people closer to violence feel closer to victims, too.
All other predictors show less consistent patterns of covariation. Social
class only affects citizens’ empathy and their willingness to talk about the
criminal war. Yet it does so against our theoretical expectations: poorer citi-
64. Bravo, Grau & Maldonado, supra note 22, at 80. See also José Merino, Jessica Zarkin &
Eduardo Fierro, Marcado Para Morir, 427 Nexos 28 (2013), OEA supra note 22, at 21;
UNODC, supra note 33, at 14.
65. Rather than logistic regression coefficients, which are hard to interpret, the table reports
odds ratios (eb), which indicate the extent to which the odds of occurrence of the out-
come variable change if the independent variable undergoes a one-unit change. Close
to one they tell us that nothing changes, below one they indicate decreases, above one
increases in the dependent variable. The baseline odds for perspective taking are 0.37
(27/73), for empathy 0.2 (17/83), for silence 1.8 (64/36), and for movement support 0.49
(33/67).
TABLE 1.
1064
Perspective taking Empathy with victims Preference Movement
for silence support
It’s probable they I recall a We should I identify with
get me killed moving case stop talking victim movements
p eb p eb p eb p eb
Bounded criminal violence .047 .896 .002 .814 .000 1.269 .005 .859
Victimization (0–5) .000 1.317 .000 1.764 .004 .837 .014 1.169
Distance to violence (0–11) .000 .875 .003 .890 .000 1.225 .930 1.003
Class (light bulbs) (1–4) .368 1.056 .037 1.169 .044 .893 .171 1.083
Phenotype (skin color) (1–10) .371 1.037 .026 1.116 .110 .942 .112 1.064
Education (0-8) .265 .967 .533 1.023 .724 .990 .102 1.047
Political interest (0–3) .182 1.085 .179 1.106 .818 1.013 .000 1.263
Media consumption (0–3) .009 1.237 .049 1.215 .408 1.064 .186 1.109
Religiosity (0–3) .357 1.060 .371 1.072 .077 1.108 .064 .895
Sex (0 = male, 1 = female) .125 1.187 .005 1.470 .900 .987 .440 1.085
Age .758 1.001 .523 .997 .813 1.001 .163 .995
HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY
Constant .003 .246 .000 .034 .205 .581 .000 .204
pac 74.3% 84.8% 68.6% 71.1%
Snell & Cox R2 .123 .170 .128 .116
R2 Nagelkerke .179 .284 .176 .162
N 1983 2044 2044 1981
Note: Binary logistic regression. eb = odds ratio. pac = Percentage of accurate classification. Shaded cells indicated statistically significant coefficients
(p ≤ .05). All models include state fixed effects (not reported). For descriptions of variables and descriptive statistics, see Tables A and B.
Vol. 38
2016 The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators 1065
zens are not more sympathetic, but less so. Skin color is unrelated to all but
one of our dependent variables: empathy. Each step along our eleven-point
scale of melanin (from pink to brown skin) augments the odds of empathic
memories by 76 percent (eb = 1.76)! Three of our control variables prove
irrelevant: education, religiosity, and age. Political interest increases: identi-
fication with organized victims, the consumption of mass media news, the
subjective likelihood of getting killed, as well as the ability to recall mov-
ing cases. Men and women do not differ systematically in their attitudes
towards victims, with one exception: women, as gender prejudice suggests
and empirical evidence confirms, are more empathic than men (eb = 1.47).
VI. CONCLUSION
Citizens who wish to deny solidarity to victims of injustice may activate two
age-old mechanisms: they may deny victims recognition as members of the
political community by conceiving them as aliens or enemies, and they may
deny them recognition as victims by blaming them for their own misfortunes.
In this paper, I analyzed a strategy of denial that fuses both mechanisms:
the equation of victims with perpetrators, their common identification as
members of the criminal community.
Whenever criminal violence seems to cluster within a certain category
of actors, be it a social class, an ethnic group, or an illicit organization,
citizens may detach themselves from it by conceiving it as an internal affair
among distant criminal actors. Situations of endemic societal violence are
usually opaque and messy. Framing them as situations of bounded violence
in which criminals kill criminals provides comfort. It imposes symbolic order
on a disordered reality. It creates a world with clear identities and a clear
separation of roles. As it blurs the line between victims and perpetrators, it
reinforces the boundary between victims and citizens.
The survey evidence reported in this paper confirms the causal relevance
of such cognitive frames in the context of Mexico’s so-called drug war. The
notion of self-contained criminal violence tends to erode sympathy towards
the victims of injustice and thus the attitudinal foundations of political
solidarity. It debilitates citizens’ willingness to adopt the perspectives of
victims, to empathize with their fate, to keep them on the public agenda,
and to support the civic associations they have formed. Cognitive frames
are not carved in stone though. They are the contingent product of private
and public debate and reflection. As the events in Iguala indicate, they are
vulnerable to shocks. It remains to be seen however, whether the shock
waves of this and other such instances of joint public and private repression
produces a lasting impact on Mexican public opinion. Citizens may well
end up defining them as no more than deplorable exceptions from the rule
of safely self-contained violence within the criminal community.
TABLE A.
1066
Description of variables
Dimension Survey questions Range / Categories Variable
name
Sympathy towards victims Perspective taking: “How probable do you think it is that organized Not at all or a little (0), P6D_d
crime orders to kill you or someone from your family” somewhat or very probable (1)
Empathy with victims (in the context of questions on murder and No (0), yes (1) P31
disappearance): “Outside the circles of people you know personally, do
you remember some person whose case has moved you in particular?”
Silence: “There are so many good things in Mexico. We should Disagree strongly or P10A_d
stop talking so much about violence.” somewhat (0), agree somewhat
or strongly (1)
Support for victims’ movements: “Generally speaking, which is your Not at all or a little, somewhat P59_d
impression of these movements? How much do you identify with the (0.66) very much (1)
victims who organize themselves?”
Boundaries of violence “Talking about murders attributed to organized crime, how much do Disagree very much (0), P24B
you agree with the following statement: As long as you do not get disagree somewhat (1),
involved with them, nothing happens to you.” agree somewhat (2)
agree very much (3).
Victimization Additive index of victimization by organized violence within and 0–5 Index_vco
HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY
Emigration: “Do you know someone who migrated to the United States No (0), yes (1) P34
or some other country because of the violence?”
Dimension Survey questions Range / Categories Variable
name
2016
Distance to violence Additive index of subjective and objective distance to violence. Sum of 0–10 Index_d_viol
three variables:
Local security: “How secure do you consider living in your locality?” Not at all (0), a little (1), P5
somewhat (2), very much (3)
Subjective distance from violence: “As a matter of fact, things have been Disagree very much (0), P10C
calm around here; the violence occurs in other regions of the country.” disagree somewhat (1),
agree somewhat (2) agree
very much (3)
Objective distance from violence: Five strata of civility (0–4) = inversion (0) = very high homicide Estrato_inv
of survey sample strata of municipal violence, by municipal homicide rate (> 30), (1) = high (15–30),
rates (annual number of homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, average (2) = medium (10–15),
2009–2011). (3) = low (6–10),
(4) = very low homicide
rate (< 6)
Class Proxy for household wealth: number of light bulbs in place of residence. (1) = 1–3 bulbs, pk_ag
(2) = 4–6 bulbs,
(3) = 7–9 bulbs,
(4) = 10 or more bulbs.
Education Level of formal education of survey respondent 0–8 edu
Phenotype Facial skin color of survey respondent, as assessed by interviewer at the 1 (pink) –10 (dark brown) enc1
end of the interview according to color palette developed by the Latin
American Public Opinion Project (lapop).
Political interest “Generally speaking, how much are you interested in politics?” Not at all (0), a little (1), P1
somewhat (2), very much (3)
Mass media news Frequency of news consumption in mass media: “How frequently do Almost never (0), a couple of P2_prom_abc
The Criminal Community of Victims and Perpetrators
you follow the news on tv / on the radio / in the newspaper?” (average times a month (1), a couple
of all three information sources) of times per week (2),
almost daily (3)
Religiousness Importance of religion in private life: “Please, could you tell me, how Not at all (0), a little (1), pl
important is religion in your life?” somewhat (2), very important (3).
1067
Table A., cont. 1068
TABLE B.
Descriptive statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean
Standard
deviation
Perspective taking: They may 2264 0 1 .27 .446
get me killed
Empathy: I recall a moving case 2363 0 1 .17 .377
Silence: We should stop talking 2360 0 1 .64 .481
Support: I identify with victims’ 2273 0 1 .33 .471
movements
Bounded criminal violence 2335 0 3 1.82 1.009
Index of victimization 2305 0 4 .53 .857
Index of distance to violence 2332 0 10 4.87 2.197
Class (light bulbs) 2361 1 4 2.49 .979
Phenotype (skin color) 2370 1 10 4.63 1.406
Education 2390 0 8 4.01 2.254
Political interest 2384 0 3 1.14 .958
Frequency of mass media news 2361 0 3 1.52 .740
consumption
Religiousness 2366 0 3 2.27 .895
Sex 2400 0 1 .51 .500
Age 2399 18 85 41.10 15.506
For descriptions of variables, see Table A.
1150 HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY Vol. 38
Wayne Sandholtz holds the John A. McCone Chair in International Relations and is
Professor of International Relations and Law at the University of Southern California.
His research focuses on the development, diffusion, and effects of international norms,
including studies of corruption, women and globalization, wartime plundering, hu-
man rights treaties, and the International Criminal Court.
Andreas Schedler is Professor of Political Science at the Center for Economic Teach-
ing and Research (CIDE) in Mexico City. His most recent book publications are The
Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism (Oxford
University Press, 2013) and En la niebla de la guerra: Los ciudadanos ante la violencia
criminal organizada [In the Fog of War: Citizens and Organized Criminal Violence
in Mexico] (CIDE, 2015).
Lara Stemple is the Director of Graduate Studies at UCLA School of Law, where she
oversees the law school’s LL.M. (masters) and S.J.D. (doctoral) degree programs and
directs the Health and Human Rights Law Project. Stemple teaches and writes in the
areas of human rights, global health, gender, sexuality, HIV/AIDS, and incarceration.
She is also the Deputy Codirector of the UC Global Health Institute’s Center of Exper-
tise on Women’s Health and Empowerment. Prior to joining UCLA, Stemple worked
as an advocate; she drafted legislation that was signed into law, lobbied members
of Congress and United Nations delegates, and testified before legislative bodies.