1 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S 1

AUTOMOTIVE SOFTWARE
IN THE AGE OF AUTONOMOUS
by Automotive IQ with special insight from
Toyota, Volvo, and others
INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
INDEX
INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3

CONTRIBUTORS....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

ABOUT THE RESEARCH........................................................................................................................................................................................ 5

TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS.................................................................................................................................................. 7
INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS............................................................................................................................... 8
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS................................................................................................................................................................10
INTERVIEW................................................................................................................................................................................................20
KEY TAKEAWAYS..............................................................................................................................................................................22

INTRODUCING AUTOMOTIVE IQ....................................................................................................................................................................23

3 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

INTRODUCTION
Since 2009, autonomous drive continues to be a major domain
within the automotive industry, and has progressed from maybe
possible to inevitable. Major significant OEM’s are pursuing the
technology, racing towards the title as autonomous champion
and mobility provider. Waymo emerged first, however its mono-
poly has eroded of late as we see companies like Lyft and Uber
also wanting a piece of the pie. Tech giants such as Intel, IBM
and Apple are also taking part, followed by countless start ups
having materialized laser sensors, data mapping, machine
learning and service centers to manage these vehicles.

As we allow AI and autonomous systems to take over manual

functions, industry challenges and uncertainty are inevitable.
However with billions being poured into R&D from OEM’s
such as Ford, GM, Nissan, Tesla, Mercedes etc., the startups
are continuously improving the software needed for full
autonomous cars.

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
4 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

CONTRIBUTORS

Sagar Behere Siddartha Khastgir Dr.-Ing. Carsten Hass

Architecture and Safety for Principal engineer – Engineering Manager
Autonomous Driving Research lead for V&V of Automated Driving &
Toyota Research Institute CAV technologies Integral Cognitive Safety
WMG, University of Warwick ZF TRW

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Anna recently completed a Master’s double
degree program in International Relations
and Diplomacy in Paris. She is the Digital
Editor of the Automotive IQ portal. Anna is
responsible for building and maintaining the
content management strategy and workflow,
as well as developing and managing relation-
ships with outside contributors for the Auto-
Carina Björnsson Peter Els Christoffer Augsburg
motive IQ media vertical, which currently has
Technical expert methods Freelancer Marketing Manager a readership of 50k industry professionals.
active safety Writing about Cars Automotive IQ
Volvo Car Group For any inquiries regarding the report or the
possibility of seeing your work published on
the Automotive IQ portal contact her at
anna.amarotti@automotive-iq.com

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
5 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

ABOUT THE RESEARCH The 2018 autonomous drive

industry report explores the
For the 2018 autonomous drive industry report, we major trends, challenges and
asked the opinion of 50,000 industry experts based investments that will impact
the most this year’s automo-
in over 200 countries. tive industry.

The purpose of the survey is to explore how

I work for... Years of automotive practice industry leaders see the autonomous-driving
ecosystem develop, change, face and over-
22.14% An OEM 18.66% 0-3
come challenges over the course of 2018.
Based on their professional specialization,
21.37% Other 11.19% 3-5
respondents were also asked to give their
16.03% Consulting/Engineering firm 11.19% 5-10 own comments on how to overcome the
major challenges in the different segments of
13.74% A component supplier 19.40% 10-20 autonomous vehicle technology development
as well as the technologies they’re most
12.21% A system supplier 39.55% 20 < interested in learning more about.

11.45% Academia Our respondent sample is split almost

evenly between OEMs, Component suppliers,
3.05% Tool supplier
System suppliers and Academia, giving a
comprehensive overview of the core of the
automotive industry. With respect to the
role of respondents, the majority of respon-
Which job title best describes your current position? dents work as engineers, managers and re-
searchers, and 53% of them hold senior
positions with over 20 years of experience in
the automotive field.

The survey was conducted online by Survey-

Monkey between February and March among
a sample of 50,000 automotive industry
experts.

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
6 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S 6

Which region are you responsible for?

29.32%
EU

1.5%
DACH
22.56% 7.52%
North Asia
America

1.5%
South
America
36.09%
Global
8.27%
Other

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
7 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS

Autonomous key trends - 2018 and beyond

Collision avoidance systems and warning systems: automotive safety
systems will affect this year’s autonomous driving customer acceptance
the most.
At some point in the near future, autonomous vehicles
will become a reality. Most of the OEMs have plans to roll
out these vehicles within 10 years, however there are still
serious concerns in the experimental phase that is
blocking new developments. We surveyed the key
decision makers from the OEMs on top trend preventing
fully autonomous vehicles and found that over 90% of the
respondents indicated collision and avoidance systems
as the biggest indicator, followed closely (87%) by the Siddartha Khastgir
development of Artificial Intelligence driven passive and
WMG, University of Warwick
active safety technologies.

“I am in complete agreement that

Top trends that will affect autonomous driving customer acceptance - collision avoidance and warning systems
rank top of the chart. This is primarily
3 choices per respondent because they have been in production for
some time now and their incorporation
91.82% Collision avoidance system in EURO NCAP has lent a high degree
of credibility to these systems. Also, the
88.18% AI driven passive and active safety safety benefits are much more tangible
from a daily user’s point of view.
30% Biometric vehicle access and start
Equally to security systems, infotainment
27.27% Active health monitoring and connected services have also been
Sagar Behere subject to rapid development, with con-
16.36% Other nectivity opening up a world of opportu-
Toyota Research Institute nity in the way in which cars interact with
13.64% Holographic windscreen “I consider as highly important the kind of HMI occupants, other vehicles, and infrastruc-
and user-experience that leads to an under- ture. These changes are significant in
11.82% FOB display
standing and trust of the system, because this is crucial in driving terms of HMI development, since there is
customer acceptance; you can have the most highly-performing much more information to be exchanged
10.91% Owner’s manual app between car and driver, and automakers
AD system, but if it isn’t clear to the user what it’s doing and how
it’s working, and if the user is constantly getting confused, it’s not are beginning to look at HMI in terms of
10% Remote vehicle shutdown
a ‘conversation’ between the vehicle and
going to drive acceptance of that system.”
occupants.”

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
8 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS

Safety first! Also when it comes to investments 90.98% of respondents

believe collision and avoidance
As self-driving technology matures, consumers are beginning to show systems will receive the most
an interest in vehicles with higher levels of automation. investments in 2018
The consensus view amongst industry professionals
responding to the IQ Automotive survey is that of all
self-driving features collision avoidance and AI driven
active and passive safety systems are by far the most
appealing autonomous features drivers would be
interested in. Highest investments areas in 2018 -
According to a November 2017 forecast by Allied Market 3 choices per respondent
research, investment in the global collision avoidance
system market was valued at $13.18 billion in 2016, and 91.13% Collision avoidance system-warning systems
is projected to reach $24.99 billion by 2023, growing at a
CAGR of 9.7% from 2017 to 2023. 84.68% AI driven passive and active safety

Similarly, supporting the view expressed by respon- 33.06% Biometric vehicle access and start
dents of the survey regarding the importance of AI driven
passive and active safety systems, the global market for 27.42% Active health monitoring
automotive artificial intelligence is expected to grow at a
CAGR of 37.32% from 2017 to 2025. 16.94% Holographic
windscreen

14.52% Other
Siddartha Khastgir
13.71% FOB display WMG, University of Warwick

12.1% Owner’s manual app “For truly safe autonomous vehicles we

6,45%
Sources:
Akshay Jadhav; Allied Market Research; Collision Avoidance System
Market Overview; November 2017; https://www.alliedmarketresearch.
com/collision-avoidance-system-market
Markets and Markets; Automotive Artificial Intelligence Market by
Offering, Process, Application and Region - Global Forecast to 2025;
August 2017; https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/
automotive-artificial-intelligence-market-248804391.html
need to adopt a multi-pronged approach.
Remote vehicle shutdown
At WMG, we define a testing continuum from the virtual world
to real-world testing. One common theme in both the worlds is
the identification of test scenarios. While many organizations are
working on scenario definition, a more collaborative approach
needs to be adopted. Research programs in various countries
are aiming to do this, and we look forward to the results from
these projects.”

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE
INDUSTRY BRAKEDOWN:
Security & Safety
Sensors, Vision systems development and
embedded systems
Algorithms, and AI: deep learning, neural networks
Autonomous vehicle data processing
Autonomous system connectivity
Mapping for autonomous driving

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
10 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Security & Safety

The second part of our research focuses on the different segments of auto-
nomous vehicle technology development. We asked our automotive experts
community to pick their area of expertise within autonomous technology and
point at the main challenges and trends. Security & Safety turned out to be
the most popular field of specialization within the respondents.
Sagar Behere
Top challenges Toyota Research Institute

Top 3 challenges when it comes to security and safety for “When it comes to vehicle cyber security,
autonomous applications sometimes, not always, the problem is
made out to be more difficult or serious
72.22% Testing AI driven systems in real driving conditions than it might be in practice; and the good
news is there’s an increasing awareness
50% Too many intrusion points with minimum safety/security requirements in place of cyber-security and, also compared
with some of the other challenges in
44.44% Verification of security autonomous driving, we may not need as
much of a revolution in scientific under-
38.89% Safety and secure code standing to solve the problem, because
Not enough standardization between with cyber-security there are many ways
33.33% safety and security overlaps to tackle this - and the field of enterprise
security and computer security has been
33.33% Lack of security expertise in the automotive world
generating a lot of answers.”
22.22% Other

5.56% ISO26262 second edition too complex

“The good news is: there’s an

increasing awareness of cyber-security”

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
11 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

Tips to overcome the biggest challenges Investments

A complex problem
(automotive ecosystem) has to be
divided into more tractable components: How much is your company
Software plat-
form that increases
in-vehicle safety subsystems, in-vehicle
non-safety subsystems, external non-vehicular planning to invest to face these
efficiency allowing for
additional safety to be added
subsystems (OEM Security Operations Center
- SOC, V2x, OEM supply chain, Tier 2 software challenges?
within same on-vehicle development, Smart City/ITS, Mobile Service
compute foot-print in Providers. Treatment of all above as mem-
production Communication and bers of the same ecosystem with common
consortium activity - security/safety procedures and V&V.
joint OEM activity
must be key!

46.67% 13.33% 13.33%

0 – 50.000 500.000 - 750.000 -
Time Frame Industry Leaders 750.000 1.000.000

Within which time frame will Who do you consider a market

your company overcome these leader in security and safety for
challenges? autonomous applications? 13.33% 6.67% 6.67%
1.500.000 <
30.77%
50.000 - 1.000.000 –
5.88% 0 - 6 months
Other 100.000 1.500.000

5.88% 1 - 2 years

52.94% 2 - 3 years 16.67% Sagar Behere

35.29% 3 < years 7.69% Toyota Research Institute
“I would expect several millions, at least.
A lot depends on the scoping and what kind
of company you’re in but if, for example, you
Carina Björnsson consider a big OEM, I see significant investments.”
Volvo Car Group
”It might go, with some limits time wise. We do have a plan; and maybe it’s too optimistic.
Hard to say as we are exploring new fields, and we will not release something that’s not
safe, that’s a fact, so if it’s not safe we’re not ready.”

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
12 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
“We need to create a framework where
Sensors, Vision systems development and the IP of manufacturers is protected but
embedded systems the collaboration ensures we solve the
challenges faster”
Sensors, Vision systems development and embedded systems follow
closely the Security & Safety segment for popularity amongst our auto-
motive experts community. Respondents were asked to identify the main
challenges, possible solutions and trends related to testing sensors. Investments
The results are summarized below.
How much is your company
Top challenges planning to invest to face these
challenges?
What do you think are the top 3 challenges when it comes to sensors,
vision systems development and embedded systems for autonomous
applications?
76.92% Testing and validation of complex sensor combinations

61.54% Sensor fusion with data from other sources than sensors 23.08% 15.38% 15.38%

46.15% Integration into the overall system architecture

1.000.000 – 0- 50.000 -
1.500.000 50.000 100.000
38.46% Cost of certain sensors such as Lidar

38.46% Choosing the right sensors for the perception system Siddartha Khastgir
Challenges in data interface
23.08% standardizations WMG, University of Warwick
“I think your survey accurately captures
Finding the right sensor the current challenges in ADAS & AD.
7.69% fusion approach 15.38% 15.38% 7.69% 7.69%
Testing sensor combinations and dependence of failure of one
or more on the functionality needs to be evaluated. As men- 100.000 - 1.500.000 < 250.000 - 750.000 -
7.69% Environmental models 500.000 1.000.000
tioned earlier, with an ever increasing ODD, the state space 250.000
has grown exponentially.”

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
13 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

Time Frame

Within which time frame will your company overcome these challenges?

3%
33.3
Siddartha Khastgir
WMG, University of Warwick
7%

7%

7%

7%
16.6

16.6

16.6

16.6
“I agree with the time frame as we need
to develop new tools and methods now to
6 months - be able to realize the AD future in the next
0 - 6 months 1 year 1 - 2 years 2 - 3 years 3 < years 5-10 years. However, I personally believe
the level of investment needs to be much
higher. But more importantly, we need to
have a collaborative approach to solving
Tips to overcome the biggest challenges Industry Leaders these challenges. We need to create a
framework where the IP of manufacturers
Who do you consider a market is protected but the collaboration ensures
we solve the challenges faster.”
leader in sensors, vision system
Testing
devices Slim design development and embedded
and more
adaptation
redundancy systems?

81.82%
+
Other

9.09%

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
14 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
Algorithms, and AI: deep learning, neural networks
As automated vehicles evolve into autonomous self-driving ‘robo-cars’ the
safety of their passengers will largely depend on the successful application
of artificial intelligence and in particular the algorithms applied to deep
learning neural networks.
In the autonomous car, one of the major tasks of AI deep
learning algorithms is continuous rendering of the vehi-
cle’s environment and predicting possible changes that
could impact the vehicle’s progress.
Moreover, the neural networks themselves need to be
complex enough (have sufficient number of parameters)
to learn from vast datasets without forgetting past expe-
rience. In this scenario, as you increase the dataset size
by a factor of n, the computational requirements increase
by a factor of n2, creating a complex engineering chal-
lenge.
What is the biggest challenge when it comes to verify
systems that are based on self-learning algorithms, and
what are some of the solutions?
Dr.-Ing. Carsten Hass, Engineering Manager Auto-
mated Driving & Integral Cognitive Safety at ZF TRW,
explains:
“The major challenges are the point of miss-classifica-
tion. In some cases, you do not have the relationship
between your output and input parameters and that
makes it way more complex; the solution would be to
limit your competence-frame and test for completeness
there. For example, regression testing on a specific
neural-net-based detection feature would be feasible,
INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
a complete neural-net based lateral control algorithm
Dr.-Ing. Carsten Hass
would be more challenging.”
ZF TRW
It’s for this reason that suppliers are developing
increasingly powerful computing modules, such as
Nvidia’s Drive PX Pegasus system, which is as small as
“I agree the timeframe for testing
a taxi license plate but can do 320 trillion operations
and validation needs to be tackled
per second, to accelerate deep machine learning,
immediately. From my perspective,
analytics, and engineering applications.
investments mentioned here are lower
ZF, another leading supplier is right now using bound estimates. These will be higher
if we’re talking about data-taking, data-
“the classical static and dynamic black-and-white box storage, and the infrastructure for the
tests for algorithm development, also vehicle testing for test and validation data.”
the full system - that means algorithm in the environ-
ment of a car. But on top we do scenario based HiL, MiL,
SiL - hardware-in-the-loop, model-in-the-loop and soft-
ware-in the-loop testing on databases with real-world
data and synthetically generated data. This is what comes
on top as a new method.”
“Nvidia’s Drive PX Pegasus system,
But AI is not only used for navigation and control of the AV,
it’s finding wider applications within the vehicle, specifi- which is as small as a taxi license
cally for biometrics, which has been highlighted as one of
the key features that consumers would be interested in, in
plate but can do 320 trillion
the IQ Automotive survey. operations per second”
ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S 15

Using AI to perform facial recognition manufacturers can
monitor attentiveness (Espescially usefull in L3 and 4
automation) as well as customising comfort features to
specific drivers and passengers.
Moreover, artificial intelligence solutions are also being
applied in ways that could enable cars to be an exten-
sion of a virtual personal assistant: IBM is working with
several automakers on solutions encompassing Watson
that could turn the AV into an extended personal assistant.
While the mass adoption of AI enhanced by deep learning
neural networks is still some time away, the industry is
attracting significant investment.
Last year investors pumped in over $15.2B in funding to AI
startups across multiple industries. It was a 141% spike
in funding from 2016. Over 1,100 new AI companies have
raised their first rounds of funding since 2016. And that’s
more than half the historic number of AI startups that
have ever raised an equity round.

In another example of AI, ZF’s ProAI hardware underpins

1349
Car eWallet, a payment system that lets cars pay for par-
king, tolls and other services when they’re in autonomous
mode. It is also the engine for Baidu’s autonomous pro-
gram, which includes a valet parking program.
888
However, there are several challenges that manufacturers
need to address. Amongst the most important being: 635
482
• Cost of the hardware
310
• Building up sufficient data points to train the AI
$1,739 $3,477 $4,569 $6,255 $15,242
• AI models have difficulty in transferring their ex-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
periences from one set of circumstances to another.
Image source:
That means companies must commit resources to train Geospatial
new models even for use cases that are similar to
previous ones
Sources:
“I would agree that testing and validation of machine Terry Costlow; SAE International; ZF’s CES blitz underscores industry
shifts; January 2018; https://www.sae.org/news/2018/01/zfs-ces-blitz-
learning, is one major topic. It’s not just for machine underscores-industry-shifts
learning but it’s also for testing the complete system, Ryan Daws; IoT news; Ford pumps $1bn into ex-Google, Uber
engineers’ AI startup; February 2017; https://www.iottechnews.com/
the algorithm in the vehicle as a full system - on the news/2017/feb/13/ford-pumps-1bn-ex-google-uber-engineers-ai-start-
road and in a simulation environment.” up/
Aditya Chaturvedi; Geospatial world; 13 major Artificial Intelligence
trends to watch for in 2018; February 2018; https://www.geospatialworld.
net/blogs/13-artificial-intelligence-trends-2018/
Adam Grzywaczewsk; NVidia; Training AI for Self-Driving Vehicles:
the Challenge of Scale; October 2017; https://devblogs.nvidia.com/train-
ing-self-driving-vehicles-challenge-scale/

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
16 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
Intel estimates that a single
Autonomous vehicle data processing autonomous vehicle will generate
In order to perform functions autonomously self-driving cars will need to 4 terabytes of data every day
process vast amounts of data, in real time and with low latency. To do this
these cars will rely heavily on connectivity, smart maps, the ability to process
massive amounts of data, and artificial intelligence to lighten the code.
The majority of manufacturers are currently develo-
ping sensor-based autonomous systems using cameras,
lidar, radar and ultra-sonic sensors that generate vast
amounts of data: Intel estimates that a single autono- The coming flood of data in
mous vehicle will generate 4 terabytes of data every day.

• In-vehicle for mission-critical processes such as

autonomous vehicles
sensor fusion
Sonar
• Cloud processing for information such as telemetry
and maps
~10-100
Radar Per second GPS
The importance of data and its processing can be clearly
seen by recent investments such as Ford’s funding of ~10-100 KB ~50 KB
a US$200 million data center to store consumer data Per second Per second
associated with connected and autonomous vehicles, and
acquisitions by Qualcomm, Samsung, Intel and GM
amounting to nearly US$70 billion for technology supp-
liers with strong competitive positions in the autonomous
Cameras Autonomous Vehicles Lidar
~20-40 ~10-70
4,000 GB
driving market.
Per second Per second
Furthermore, Gartner research said last year that the
worldwide public cloud-services market was worth an
estimated $246.8 billion.

Cloud-based networking and connectivity are set to play Per day--- each day
a pivotal role in supporting V2V and V2X communication.

Image source: Intel

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
17 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
By 2022, 75% of connected
Autonomous system connectivity car packages will be sold as part
In a recent Automotive Product Development and Launch Cycles survey of smaller, less expensive cars
sponsored by Jabil, 53 percent of respondents believed that better
connectivity was the primary driver of technology innovation in the industry.
Currently it is estimated that between 60 and 80 percent
of cars sold in 2017 contained installed telematics, and I am reluctant to use car-related I am afraid that people can hack
by 2022 75 percent of connected car packages will be
sold as part of smaller, less expensive cars.
connected services because I into my car and manipulate it
The two primary technologies being considered in
want to keep my privacy (eg, the braking system) if the
connected vehicles are: car is connected to the internet
• Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) in
the 5.9GHz band 59 59 ø 54
51 53
• Cellular V2X which will rely heavily on 5 G networks 45 43
ø 37
The Automotive Edge Computing Consortium estimates 37
that data sent to the cloud by connected vehicles will
reach 10 exabytes per month by 2025 - 10,000 times what’s
being collected in early 2018. 21
Germany

Germany
This flow of data gives rise to considerable security and

China

China
Brazil

Brazil
US

US
privacy concerns. The incentive to manage anxieties over
these issues will come not only from a desire to fulfill
customer expectations. There’s also the potential for re-
Image source:
gulators to step in and establish minimum requirements. Mckinsey

Connectivity allows autonomous cars to accurately plot

their position by accessing maps in real time.

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
18 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Mapping for autonomous driving

Manufacturers rely on maps to accurately determine the position of the
vehicle in its environment. Known as localization this is a critical prerequisite
for effective AV navigation.

Sensors Perception Planning Control

Camera Detection Route Planning PID

Lane detection

Radar Prediction
Traffic Light Detection & Classification
MPC
Traffic Sign Detection & Classification
Lidar Behaviour Planning

Object Detection & Tracking

GPS Free Space Detection Trajectory Planning Others

Others Localization Map

Image source:
Udacity

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
19 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

AV developers are pursuing two mapping options:
• Granular, high-definition maps constructed using
vehicles equipped with lidar and cameras
• Feature mapping, which doesn’t necessarily need lidar,
but only maps certain road features to enable
navigation using cameras and (sometimes) radar
Mapmakers can enhance both approaches by using a fleet
of vehicles, either manned or autonomous, with the sen-
sor packages required to collect and update the maps
continuously. Or OEMs could ‘crowd source’ real-time
detail from information gathered by the fleet of connected
AVs – such as Tesla recently announced.
For accurate localization, companies compare the infor-
mation gathered by onboard sensors (including GPS) to The sector is attracting significant
corresponding HD maps. This provides a reference point
the vehicle can use to identify, with great accuracy, exact- investment from new players such as
ly where it is located (including lane information) and in
what direction it’s headed. Argo AI LLC, a year-old startup with
While Google may be perceived to be the leaders in
mapping, the sector is attracting significant investment
$1 billion,
from new players such as Argo AI LLC, a year-old startup and Mapbox with a
with $1 billion backing by Ford, and Mapbox with a $164
$164 million
million investment.
investment.

Sources:
Stephen Lawson; The Connected Car; Toyota Pledges DSRC Connected-Car System for US Vehicles in 2021; April 2018; https://www.theconnectedcar.com/author.asp?section_id=627&doc_id=742305&
Terry Costlow; SAE International Autonomous vehicle engineering; Big Data, Big Challenges; March 2018; https://www.sae.org/news/magazines
Chad Morley; IoT for all; 7 Connected car trends fueling the future; March 2018; https://medium.com/iotforall/7-connected-car-trends-fueling-the-future-946b05325531
Mark Bergen; Hyperdrive/ Bloomberg; Nobody wants to let Google win the war for maps all over again; February 2018;
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-02-21/nobody-wants-to-let-google-win-the-war-for-maps-all-over-again
Akshay Jadhav; Allied Market Research; Collision Avoidance System Market Overview; November 2017;
https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/collision-avoidance-system-market
Jim Colquitt; The Invesco white paper series; Driverless cars: How innovation paves the road to investment opportunity; November 2017; https://www.invesco.com/corporate/dam/jcr:dd5f58ed-02bc-4b5a-9af1-c86ee19e2737/II-AUTODR-WP-2-E.pdf
Todd Simon; Massive autonomous vehicle sensor data: What does it mean?; May 2017; https://www.datanami.com/2017/05/15/massive- autonomous-vehicle-sensor-data-mean/
E-Spin; Autonomous car : Perception,localization,mapping; March 2018; https://www.e-spincorp.com/2018/03/07/autonomous-car- perceptionlocalizationmapping/

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
20 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S
INTERVIEW
What do OEMs want
In relation to Automotive Software in
the age of Autonomous, Automotive
IQ interviewed Sagar Behere.
How do you define an Operational Design
Domain, and how is it used in the context of
testing ADS and AD?
The Operational Design Domain specifically
describes and defines the conditions under which
the AD system is intended to operate. It consists of
a number of different things but broadly speaking
it’s about where it’s okay to test AD function and
when is it okay to test it; it’s not just about okay to
test, but it defines the scope of operation. The follo-
wing are typically considered in an ODD: the type of
roads, whether urban, highway, interior and so on;
also what are the maximum speeds of operation?
Also the when? - what type of weather, daytime or
night time, and so on. Basically, the use of the ODD
is to decide whether it’s okay to test the vehicle or
not, based on whether the conditions are prevalent
for which the system was designed. But it’s also a
way for the system to understand when it’s okay to
operate and when it is not okay to operate.
INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
What are good safety-case arguments when
testing prototype AD systems on public roads?
I will answer this and the next question together.
When testing prototype systems on public roads the
one thing we always want to ensure is correct and
complete evidence and arguments and proof, that
the prototype AD vehicle doesn’t pose an unrea-
sonable threat or risk to traffic, the environment
and to traffic participants inside and outside the
vehicle. If possible, already at the test-stage, the
Sagar Behere
system should make it safer for traffic and for the
human; how you go about it really depends on which Toyota Research Institute
elements in the system, including the driver, you are
counting on to make the system safe.. In the early Mr. Behere is the Senior
stages of prototype-vehicles, you define that safety Manager for Systems Engi-
is largely handled by the human driver, and so the neering at Toyota Research
safety arguments in that case would rely on ensuring Institute, and currently the
there’s always sufficient time for the human driver to
architect and systems inte-
understand maybe a potentially dangerous situation
grator for complex, safety-
is emerging, and the human driver also then has the
opportunity to take control of the vehicle and bring it critical systems.
to a safer state. The arguments here would define:
He holds a PhD in architectures
Can you drive the vehicle in a way that there’s for highly automated systems,
always enough time for the human to detect and is skilled within areas such
something is going wrong? Can you guarantee
as software and firmware deve-
the vehicle will always remain controllable,
lopment, control system
like it won’t “run away” from the human driver?
And, thirdly, is the human driver always clear what designs, cyber-security,
the vehicle is doing; what mode it is in, and so on? embedded hardware etc.
For example, you should try to avoid a vehicle that’s
only partially autonomous because of some fault, so
ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
21 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S
maybe the steering is autonomous but the braking
and acceleration are not.
Now, as the capabilities of the AD system increases,
eventually need to permit the system to perform
actions from which you know a human driver may be
unable to recover in case they’re wrong; and to fully
exploit the capabilities of this technology you even-
tually need to let it make commands that can be very
dangerous if they’re wrong. So, at this time you start
building the safety case for saying: What makes those
commands definitively be correct and safe? Why
would they not be wrong? For example, if you look
at many autonomous-driving programmes, when
the AD system wants to change lanes, in the early
phases of development it depends on the human
driver to verify that the situation is safe, and the
human driver typically indicates this by giving
the turning signal telling the AD system it’s okay to
change lanes, and then it performs a lane change.
But as the system develops further you don’t want the
human driver to be the part that says this is safe, you
want the system itself to determine when it’s safe.
And so then the safety case would turn on: Can the
system assess the situation with sufficient accura-
cy? What are some of the malfunctions that could
prevent the car from knowing it’s not safe to make
a lane change? -and so on. So, it really depends on
who is responsible for safety?
INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
Is there any step change in the system
architecture when specific ODD expansions
are introduced?
I think so. Normally, when you’re driving on high-
ways, it’s considered to be a more structured and
well-defined environment and so it’s easier to define
what the correct behaviour of the system should
be, and what are some of the safety steps in case
there’s a problem?. When you go from highways to
urban environments, there’s a substantial increase
in the difficulty and complexity of the autonomous-
driving task, and this, in turn, necessitates a change
in the architecture; so although highway driving is at
higher speeds, it’s a more structured environment;
but in urban driving - if you drive through downtown
Dusseldorf, for example, you’ll see a lot of situations
which might not be easy for an AD system to under-
stand. This capability of understanding what’s going
on and therefore deciding what’s the right thing to
do requires a level of semantics which I don’t think
our cars have yet, at least the production cars. And
so that’s a big challenge.
ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS
Will we ever be able to conclude that an
autonomous vehicle is fully safe in any scenario?
If yes, when do you predict this will come?
I think this question is phrased in a way that the
answer has to be, “No!”. Because if you say: Will it
be fully safe in any scenario? - well, it would be very
difficult to say: “Yes, this is going to be the case.”
But I believe we can definitely come to a conclusion
some day that autonomous vehicles are safer than
the average human being in any scenario; and the
magnitude by which these vehicles are safer than
human beings will keep increasing as time passes;
so, initially, there might be a time when you make
some arguments they are just as safe as human
beings, if not safer, but then you can say they’re
maybe are twice as safe, three times as safe, and
safety is not a single dimension; there are many,
many different aspects of safety and maybe they’re
safer in some aspects and less safe in other aspects.
But someday we should be able to reasonably state
that autonomous vehicles are safer along most of
the dimensions than human beings - definitely safer
enough that they will make traffic, as a whole, safer.
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
22 A U T O M O T I V E S O F T WA R E I N T H E A G E O F A U T O N O M O U S
K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
Future trends
As indicated by the respondents
of the IQ Automotive survey, by
far the most valued self-driving
functions remain collision avoi-
dance and AI driven passive and
active safety systems.
The ever increasing computational power of
modern GPUs and CPUs enables manufacturers
to reduce latency and improve redundancy while
still driving down costs of safety systems. The
evolution of machine learning into self-learning
neural network AI, blends the precision of auto-
mation with the cognitive capabilities of humans
to continually improve safety and reduce traffic
fatalities. Although Biometrics is a relatively new
development, the advances being made, in parti-
cular in AI driven facial recognition, have seen
biometric vehicle access enter the top 3 trends.
Sources:
Jeff Zaleski; PWC; Global automotive deals insights: Year-end 2017; February 2018; https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industrial-products/publications/
assets/pwc-automotive-industry-mergers-acquisitions-q4-2017.pdf
Aditya Chaturvedi; Geospatial world; 13 major Artificial Intelligence trends to watch for in 2018; February 2018; https://www.geospatialworld.net/
blogs/13-artificial-intelligence-trends-2018/
INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
Major challenges
The top challenges this year
remain the limited computing
power and related costs to
process the massive amounts of
data generated by autonomous
vehicles.
This also has an impact on teaching the AI neural
network algorithms, where millions of data points
have to be collected, to make vehicles contextually
aware of their environment as well as train them
to respond appropriately. With the industry relying
heavily on road testing as final verification of the
system, the uncertainties around global road
testing regulations is both impacting on consu-
mer confidence and the ability of manufacturers to
speed up adoption of higher levels of automation.
Related to regulation is the setting of cohesive and
clear standards for manufacturers to follow when
operating test fleets.
ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS
Future
investments
Seen as pivotal technologies
driving the automotive future
connectivity, AI and data pro-
cessing are attracting sizeable
investment.
The Auto-Tech segment, which includes invest-
ments in connectivity, autonomous, software, and
intellectual property, accounted for $23.3 billion,
or 43.9% of all Automotive deals in 2017: The two
largest deals being Intel’s acquisition of MobileEye
and Samsung’s acquisition of Harman Interna-
tional. This trend is set to continue as evidenced
by ZF Friedrichshafen’s acquisition of Beespeed
Automatizari’s automotive unit and Continental’s
acquisition of EasyMile. At the same time certain
sectors are experiencing a geographical shift in
investment: In 2017 China’s artificial intelligence
startups took 48% of all dollars going to AI startups
globally. In deep learning also China published six
times more patents than the US.
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S
 INTRODUCING
AUTOMOTIVE IQ
Automotive IQ is an online portal dedicated to producing in-
depth value-adding content for the global automotive industry.

We provide industry professionals and senior business decision

makers with exclusive information, news and industry trends
through presentations, articles, interviews, webinars, white-
papers, seminars and conferences.

Visit www.Automotive-IQ.com today, join our community for

free and connect with over 50.000 automotive professionals.

BECOME A MEMBER

Follow Automotive IQ to keep

up-to-date with the latest news!

INTRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS ABOUT THE RESEARCH TRENDS IN AUTONOMOUS INVESTMENTS IN AUTONOMOUS INDUSTRY ANALYSIS INTERVIEW K E Y TA K E AWA Y S