Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Foreign Activity So although it seems that the undertone of the market is still quite firm
Foreign Buy (USDmn) 9.44
for the moment, we have to keep in mind that sentiment is still fragile and
can change quickly with any major announcement. Technically speak-
Foreign Sell (USDmn) 6.08 ing both indexes did find good support at important levels today and the
Foreign Net (USDmn) 3.36 coming days could therefore prove to be very important for the direction
Foreign Turnover (%) 10.64%
of the markets over the coming weeks.
Head Office
Level 1,2,3 Capital Place Building,
6 Thai Van Lung St., District 1, HCMC
T: (+84 8) 3 823 3299
F: (+84 8) 3 823 3301
Hanoi Office
6 Le Thanh Tong St.,
Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi Content
T: (+84 4) 3 9334693 Today’s Markets 2
F: (+84 8) 3 9334822
VCB - 1-H FY2010 Result 4
http://www.hsc.com.vn
Market Activity 9
HCMS <GO> Today’s OTC Prices 11
Markets at a Glance 12
Please read the important disclaimer at Today’s News 13
the end1of the document.
Page
September 08th, 2010
455
454
counted for 12.81% of the buying value and 7.67% of the selling value.
453
452 The market opened lower and after a sharp but short lived rally fell again
451
to hit the daily low of 453.03 before rising steadily thereafter although we
still closed in negative territory. Today’s trading range was narrower at
450
9:00
9:05
9:10
9:15
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10:05
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10:15
10:20
10:25
10:30
10:35
10:40
10:45
10:50
10:55
11:00
After the end of the first session, about 5.9 million shares were offered
HoSE - Total Bid Offer and around 7.3 million shares were bid. And then towards the end of
the day, around 7.7 million shares were offered with around 12.2 million
shares bid. Bids were lower than yesterday’s levels at the end of the first
session while offers were a tad higher again. Bids rose far more cau-
tiously today and closed sharply lower than yesterday’s closing levels.
Then offers were a bit higher again on yesterday’s closing levels. The
gap between bids and offers narrowed sharply on yesterday’s closing
levels although it was more a case of falling bids than rising offers.
In terms of the VN index VCB, BVH, MSN and DPM made the biggest
positive contribution. And VIC, CTG, VOS and SSI made the biggest
negative contribution. Major sectors were mixed to lower again today.
Foreign buying rose today in actual terms and was up also in percentage
HoSe Bid/Offer Spread (%) terms. Meanwhile foreign selling was down slightly in actual terms and
also in percentage terms. Foreigners were still active net buyers though
to the tune of VND71.62 billion worth of shares in HCMC. And we saw
twenty five transactions in the put through market today.
Foreigners were active buyers of KBC; HAG; BVH; FPT and KDC. They
also actively sold GIL; SJS; FPT; PVD and SSI. The put through mar-
ket was more active today and we saw 2 large and then some medium
sized and smaller deals accounting for 8.02% of total turnover. We saw
200,000 shares of VNM; 260,000 shares of HTV; 750.096 shares of GIL
and 260,000 shares of OGC amongst others in the put through market.
Foreigners were active in the GIL deal in the put through market today.
Among today’s most actives we had TLH leading the list with 2.62 mil-
lion shares traded and a 5% higher closing price at VND17,000. SSI
had to settle for second place with 1.76 million shares traded and a
VND700 lower closing price of VND28,500. VIS saw 1.76 million shares
change hands and a 3% higher closing price and DIC closed at ceiling
(VND26,900) on 1.47 million shares traded. BVH reached an intraday
high of VND51,000, the highest price since June of last year.
As for the five traded funds, VFMVFA was flat at VND7,700, VFMVF4 was
down 3.23% at VND6,000, VFMVF1 was flat at VND10,800, PRUBF1
was down 2.17% at VND4,500 and finally MAFPF1 closed flat once more
at VND4,600.
Page 2
September 08th, 2010
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Page 3
September 08th, 2010
Vietcombank FY2010 1-H results and FY2010 outlook – despite reasonable growth
challenges remain. Reiterate HOLD.
Analyst - Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh
OPERATING INCOME 1H FY2009 1H FY2010 % y/y FY2010 Target % fulfilled FY2010 HSC % y/y
Forecast
Interest and similar income 7,581,534 9,554,476 26.0% 17,314,139 13.2%
Interest and similar expense (4,557,207) (5,296,889) 16.2% (9,517,020) 8.2%
NET INTEREST AND SIMILAR INCOME 3,024,327 4,257,587 40.8% 6,478,666 65.7% 7,797,120 20.0%
Fee and commission income 619,696 741,654 19.7% 1,441,023 5.0%
Fee and commission expenses (134,741) (230,924) 71.4% (317,846) -17.1%
NET FEE AND COMMISSION INCOME 484,956 510,730 5.3% 1,239,213 41.2% 1,123,177 13.5%
Net gain from dealing in foreign currencies 390,554 192,454 -50.7% 918,309 21.0% 459,155 -50.0%
Net gain from securities trading and investment 258,382 164,950 -36.2% 796,173 20.7% 246,347 -30.8%
Net gain from joint-ventures & association & dividend 224,389 56,806 -74.7% 426,437 13.3% 356,943 -10.0%
Other operating income 70,462 108,162 53.5% 128,006 84.5% 140,807 10.0%
TOTAL OPERATING INCOME 4,453,070 5,290,689 18.8% 9,986,804 53.0% 10,123,548 9.0%
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES (1,266,554) (2,112,208) 66.8% (3,985,600) 53.0% (3,834,655) 9.8%
NET OPERATING INCOME 3,186,516 3,178,481 -0.3% 6,001,204 53.0% 6,288,893 8.6%
Provision for loans to customers (256,746) (353,150) 37.5% (1,501,204) 23.5% (1,314,362) 87.4%
PROFIT BEFORE TAX 2,929,770 2,825,331 -3.6% 4,500,000 62.8% 4,974,532 -2.3%
Source: VCB, HSC estimates
Investment conclusion: 1-H result was on target led by decent growth in foreign currency denominated loans which offset weak-
ness in securities investment and FX trading. Higher interest rates and stable funding cost enabled NIM to rise sharply which
boosted interest income enormously. At the same time costs rose on higher staffing cost while NPL has risen sharply as they
applied new qualitative scoring for the first time. Based on HSC’s earnings model for VCB, we forecast that the company’s PBT
for FY2010 will come to VND4,974 billion (-2.6% y/y), higher than the bank’s target of VND4.5 trillion. The key driver will be net
interest income which we forecast can grow by 20% y/y in FY2010 to VND7,797 billion driven by credit growth of 18%. On the
bright side the bank is currently looking for a strategic partner after a long delay. VCB has lost ground in recent years as the post
IPO sequence has not worked according to plan and the failure to bring in a strategic partner has also meant they were not al-
lowed to raise new capital. Luckily this has now been lifted but they still face several challenges such as their exposure to Vinashin
debt before the bank can move forward. We forecast FY2010 forward BVPS and EPS would come to VND13,390 and VND2,704
respectively. At today’s price of VND38,000, or ex-right price of VND31,053, the stock is trading at a FY2010 forward PE and PB
of 11.48xs and 2.32xs respectively. This is a little higher than the average trading comparables for the financial sector in terms of
forward FY2010 PE of 11xs and PB of 1.8xs. Indeed the bank seems fully valued given its challenges and we reiterate our HOLD
rating on the stock.
FY2010 1H result
• VCB announced audited 1-H FY2010 results recently with consolidated PBT of VND2,825 billion (down 3.6% y/y) on total
operating income of VND5,291 billion (up 18.8% y/y) and an NPL provision of VND353 billion (compared to VND257 billion in
1H FY2009). This was driven by growth in total loans of 8% year-to-date while deposits increased by 7.7% and total assets
declined by 3.8%. Out of total operating income, net interest income contributed 81% (up from a past average of 73%), fee
income 9.7% and forex income 3.6% (down from a normal average of 8%).
• In 1-H FY2010, net interest income rose sharply to VND4,258 billion, up 41% y/y, with 60% of this realized in Q2. 1-H NIM
edged up to 3.35%, compared to 2.63% in FY2009 and 2.57% in the 1H last year. Looking into credit growth by currency,
we noted that VND credit growth was just 0.4% YTD while credit growth denominated in foreign currency was 24% YTD (vs.
27.5% YTD for the whole sector). As a result VND-denominated outstanding loans accounted for 63% of the total loan book,
down from 67.3% in FY2009.
• In April VCB realized some profit from an investment portfolio managed by UBS, totaling US$36 million, or VND700 billion. We
understand that this amount was partly recorded in interest income, which helped to boost Q2 results.
Page 4
September 08th, 2010
• We saw a surge in demand for USD-denominated loans because of the significant discrepancy between VND and USD inter-
est rates, about 7-9%/year, a useful difference as exchange rate was very stable during that time. Vietcombank’s advantages
in foreign currency inflows helped it to take a large share of US dollar lending in the 1-H. funds. Lending and securities invest-
ments (mostly bonds) in foreign currency accounted for 98% of client’s foreign currency deposit. This was the highest ratio
ever, compared to 77% in FY2008 and 83% in FY2009. Lending rates for foreign currency denominated loans were about 6%
yearly, with 7% charged in some cases.
• Total customer deposit rose by 7.7% YTD to VND182 trillion. One of the purposes of Circular 03/2010/TT-NHNN was to en-
courage enterprises to sell their foreign currency to banks instead of keeping it on deposit. Many companies sold USD for VND
and then deposited the VND to enjoy higher interest rates. At the same time, other banks continuously raised deposit rates in
the 1-H to attract US$ from individuals. As a result, VCB’s customer deposit in foreign currency fell by VND1.7 trillion, or 2.6%
YTD. However VND deposits expanded by VND14.7 trillion, or 14.4% YTD.
• And out of VND65 trillion in client deposit held in foreign currencies, at least 26.5% was defined as demand deposit, carrying
a very low deposit rate of 0.1%/year for financial institutions or 0.2%/year for individuals and economic entities as per Circu-
lar 03/2010/TT-NHNN (effective since 11 February 2010). With regards to term deposit of economic entities, the ceiling rate
regulated by that Circular was just 1%.
• In terms of VND lending, negotiable interest rates have been allowed for medium and long-term loans since 26th February and
for short-term loans since 14th April. As a result lending rates at VCB increased from the previous ceiling rate of 10.5%/year to
12.5-13.5%/year for short-term loans and 14-15%/year for long-term loans. In the mean time, about 28.4% of clients’ deposit
in VND was paid demand deposit interest rates of 2.4% for institutional clients and 3% for individuals.
• We don’t have sufficient information to calculate average weighted deposit rates for either foreign currencies or VND, but
given their large institutional client base, VCB’s average cost of funds is still much lower than peers which helps keeps their
NIM higher than average.
• There was not much change in fee income during 1-H at VND511 billion, up 5.3% y/y. VCB’s market share in international pay-
ment was down slightly to 19.3% from 20.4% in FY2009, but as total export-import turnover increased settlement fee growth
was stable.
• Income from FX trading in Q1 reached VND201 billion, however, it slumped to a loss of VND9 billion in Q2. In sum they earned
VND192 billion in FX gains for the 1-H or down 51% y/y. Normally, spot foreign exchange generates the income while foreign
exchange swap activities records a loss. The lower result was driven by a decline in income from spot trading (which was
equal to just 30% of the FY2009 performance) and an increase in the proportionate loss from FX swaps (equal to 60% of last
year’s result).
• Income from securities trading and investment totaled VND165 billion, down 36% y/y. We all recall that the VNIndex in the
1-H FY2009 surged 118% while in the 1-H this year it moved just 15%. This obviously affected the bank’s securities trading
activities. In short, FX and securities trading businesses were affected negatively but, thanks to the good performance in core
banking business, interest income achieved impressive growth and fee income grew also. As a result total operational income
rose 18.8% y/y.
• Meanwhile the cost/income ratio in the 1-H came to 40%, the highest ever (37.6% in FY2009 and less than 30% previously).
We note the bank recorded higher staff cost. The approved ratio of staff cost/pre-staff cost income for FY2010 was 29.6%
(28.37% for FY2009) and the actual result came to 32% in the 1H.
• By the end of 1H FY2010, the bank has started to implement qualitative credit scoring and this immediately raised the bank’s
NPL. The NPL ratio for groups 3-5 increased to 4.1% from 2.5% in FY2009. And the proportion of overdue loans for groups
2-5 over total loans increased to 20% from 8.1% in FY2009. The bank currently holds a provision reserve for impaired loans
of VND5,012 billion based on scoring result as of 31 May 2010 as regulated by law. According to our own estimates, based on
1-H rating, the bank needs to make an additional provision of at least VND565 billion. Moreover, we are a little bit concerned
as we note the coverage ratio (reserve/NPL) for debts grouped 3-5 fell from 132% in FY2009 to 79% in 1H FY2010.
• Thanks to the improvement in client’s deposits, LDR (under the old definition) was maintained at 84%, the same as at FY2009
year-end. However, according to VCB, if calculated under the new Circular 13 which excludes demand deposits, the LDR
would be over 90%. CAR would be roughly 8%. This means the bank would have to restructure its assets considerably to raise
CAR to 9% by October 1st as required by Circular 13.
Page 5
September 08th, 2010
FY2010 Outlook
• You will recall that Vietcombank’s AGM approved the plan to raise capital by VND5.49 trillion from VND12.1 trillion to VND17.59
trillion in FY2010 in two phases. Phase 1, which was completed in mid-August, all shareholders were offered a rights issues
of 100:9.28 ratio at par to raise capital to VND13,224 billion. This plan was already endorsed in last year’s AGM, initially and
supposed to have been implemented already in FY2009 but got stuck due to SBV objections. Phase 2, planned for Q4 this
year, approved by the authorities recently, a rights issue of 33% at par will be issued to all shareholders at that point of time. In
total, current shareholders will be entitled to buy newly issued shares at a ratio 100: 45.3 at par. We think that the bank could
complete this in Q4.
• Of the newly raised capital, about VND1.2 trillion will be injected into VCB subsidiaries and joint-ventures of which, VND1 tril-
lion will be added to Shinhan-Vina bank, where VCB holds a 50% stake. Shinhan-Vina bank will anyway have to raise its own
capital to VDN3 trillion by the end of this year as regulated by the SBV. The rest of funds will be used by VCB to expand its
business whilst boosting CAR to 9% this year. In FY2009, VCB’s CAR came to only 8.11%, the lowest over the last 5 years.
This illustrates how much ground the bank has lost since listing due to its failure to attract a strategic partner and raise money
before now. This delay has seriously hamstrung the bank’s expansion plans.
• The bank has resumed its search for a suitable strategic partner this year. This is a bit of a sage but now of course the rules
have been changed to make this a little easier. Importantly the price a strategic partner would have to pay is no longer the
average bid price of VND107,000/share, but rather negotiable since last year. While an announcement this year is still pos-
sible, the bank will complete this process next year at the earliest due to the complex procedures. After that, VCB will issue
new shares to the strategic partners to increase capital.
• For FY2010, VCB targets total assets growth of 15% y/y, outstanding loans of 20%y/y, customer deposit growth of 23% y/y
and PBT of VND4.5 trillion, down 10.1% y/y. The company hopes to pay a dividend of 12% of par in cash, same as in FY2009,
or a 3.16% dividend yield based on today’s share price of VND38,000.
• Based on HSC’s earnings model for VCB, we forecast that the company’s PBT for FY2010 will come to VND4,975 billion (-
2.3% y/y), higher than the bank’s target of VND4.5 trillion. This forecast is driven by the deposit growth of 18% y/y, loan growth
of 18% y/y and assets growth of 12.9% y/y. These look fairly doable in the context of 1-H results apart from assets which needs
a bit of a rethink. In terms of total income this will continue to be driven by strong net interest income growth and to a much
lesser extent income from financial investment.
• We forecast net interest income can grow by 20% y/y to VND7,797 billion, in which interest income from fixed income would
decrease by VND624 billion, down 19% y/y and other interest income would increase by VND3,359 billion, up 28% y/y. As
mentioned FY2010 loan book growth is forecast by us to hit 18% y/y. There are two things: (1) Credit growth this year is
tougher this year as actual loan rates are still quite high although we also note that VCB has signed agreements to finance
EVN’s grand projects and Eco-park project of Hacinco, which are to be disbursed in 2H and (2) loan growth is being limited
due to the tough LDR conditions set out under Circular 13, effective from 1st October.
• And as of the end of 1-H, LDR as calculated under Circular 13 was 93%. Assuming that deposit composition will be the same
as at year-end, and deposit growth is 18% y/y as we forecast, then the limit for loan growth is VND155 trillion, or 9.5% y/y,
1.4% h/h to reduce LDR to 80%. However, HSC believes that the C13 LDR definition may soon be eased to include demand
deposits once more. Assuming Circular 13 is revised so that demand deposit is included in the deposit base, then we estimate
the limit for loan growth is VND166 trillion, or 16.9% y/y, 8.2% h/h to reduce LDR to 80%. Therefore we keep our credit growth
target of 17% and we forecast full year NIM will reach 3.84%, up from 2.86% last year due to the bank’s relative low cost of
funding in US$.
• We further forecast FY2010 fee income will increase by 13.5% y/y to VND1,123 billion as we think that Vietnam’s export and
import this year will increase by 20% and 26% respectively. In fact, in the first 3 months of FY2010, settlement turnover of the
bank increased by 17% YTD and the bank earned VND248 billion in fee income, up 25.3% y/y. In 2-H so far the US$ has risen
by 2% or so which is a favourable outcome for VCB’s FX trading, given its rich US$ reserves. We forecast that gains from FX
trading will increase by 141% h/h and reach VND460 billion for the whole year.
• With regards to income related to securities trading, securities investment and capital investment, HSC forecasts that this
will rise by VND415 billion (up 55% y/y) to total VND1,167 billion, of which about VND564 billion will be recorded in interest
income, however. In April VCB already realized profit from an investment portfolio managed by UBS. And they plan to restruc-
ture their portfolio by selling down some bank holdings such as EIB, Saigon Bank, Oriental bank and Gia Dinh Bank along
Page 6
September 08th, 2010
with some other stocks such as PVD. In July and August, the bank sold 5 million EIB shares and registered to sell additional
5 million shares. Also, VCB sold 68,000 PVD shares and registered to sell additional 2 million shares. We estimated VCB
can earn about VND164 billion in profits from these transactions, With this profit in hand and given the weaker market; HSC
forecasts they can make VND603 billion this year (down 19.8% y/y), 78% of financial income target this year of VND796 billion
(because a part of income from securities investment was recorded into interest income).
• We mentioned 1-H cost to income ratio was 32% as approved by the AGM in April FY2010. However in June the authorities
threw this out and insisted on a ratio of just 29.6%. Therefore in the 2-H operation cost will have to be carefully managed and
can only be allowed to increase by 7.6% y/y in order to bring the ratio of staff cost to income ratio back down to 29.6% similar
to last year. To do this they will have to adjust down salaries and bonuses for the management team and staff and/or limit ad-
ditional recruitment.
• NPL ratio based on Article 6, Decision 493 of the bank for FY2009 was 2.47%, down from FY2008’s of 4.6% and lower than
the target for FY2009 at 3.5%. In its efforts to reduce NPL, the bank used about VND600 billion to write-off bad debt in the
year, reducing the NPL in absolute number terms. Also, a large part of the debts were collected or upgraded to better debt
groups in FY2009 following domestic economic development in the year. VCB also said that about 10% of VCB’s total loan
book in FY2009 was extended to to the group of steel trading companies and along with the increase in price of basic material
price, earnings performance of those clients improved and the relevant loans were upgraded to healthy groups and no longer
considered bad debts.
• For FY2010, the bank targets to curb NPL this year lower than 3.5% under Article 7, Decision 493, down from FY2009’s 4.5%.
The bank plans to achieve this target by improving the supervision in the appraisal and extension of loans and promoting the
collection of bad debts. We think that this is a bold step of the bank to be among the first banks to implement internal credit
rating as per Article 7 of Decision 493, thus showing credit risk exposure more clearly and incurring more provision expense.
However, given that SBV is drafting a legal document to regulate more strictly and enforce the implementation of Article 7 in
Decision 493, it seems that this step is inevitable for all banks. Still, we are quite concerned about VCB’s bad debt as its group
5 debt currently accounts for 1.51% of total loan book, higher than Tier 2 average of 0.51% and CTG’s of 0.27%. Group 5
debts are those overdue for more than 360 days, classified as “Loss” and to be written-off using provision reserve. Although
VCB has a rich provision reserve (VND5,012 billion, 2.5 times as much as total of 5 Tier 2 banks), its group 5 loan was equiva-
lent to 45% of the reserve (this number for Tier 2 banks was 53% and CTG 28%). This means that VCB’s group 5’s debts are
substantial although the bank still has capacity to clear it.
• In relation to the Vinashin exposure we understand that VCB may have about VND3 trillion or so of loans extended to Vinash-
in. And the latest Fitch report seems to confirm this but frankly it’s hard to get details as the bank is being fairly tight lipped. It’s
also early days yet as to how this will be resolved but it will certainly require extensive negotiation with both the government
and the shipping group itself. For the time being we have to assume that this will simply stay on the books as a normal loan
until it can be resolved.
• In terms of external ratings, Fitch has just downgraded ACB and VCB from D to D/E. They keep unchanged with BIDV at D/E
and Agribank at E category. Frankly we wonder how much information or analysis Fitch has done and given their spotty record
on the sovereign rating we suspect even less thought has gone into individual bank ratings. In fact these ratings for VCB and
ACB border in the absurd given they are now bracketed with BIDV.
• We forecast that for FY2010, VCB will spend VND1,314 billion for provision cost. This leads to PBT of VND4,974 billion, NPAT
of VND3,841 billion (down 2.6% y/y), and a final net profit for FY2010 of VND3,377 billion (-2.7% y/y). The equity value for
FY2010 therefore would be VND24,232 billion. FY2010 forward BVPS and EPS would come to VND13,390 and VND2,704
respectively. At today’s price of VND38,000, or ex-right price of VND31,053, the stock is trading at a FY2010 forward PE and
PB of 11.48xs and 2.32xs respectively. This is higher than the average trading comparables for the financial sector in terms of
forward FY2010 PE of 11xs and PB of 1.8xs.
• The bank does have some plus points: (1) Among the first banks to implement qualitative credit rating as per Article 7 of Deci-
sion 493, this gives us a clearer picture of credit risk, (2) liquidity position of the bank is always among the best; (3) it has a
healthy and stable income structure with about 30% of total income as non-interest income. Interest income has grown without
too much expansion in customer lending thanks to an active and efficient interbank operation. VCB’s strength in FX activities
is also a plus while the yield on its financial investment has been going up; and (4) there is potential for some capital surplus
and added valued brought about by the bank’s future strategic partner. On the other hand the bank needs to find a strategic
partner; deal with the Vinashin exposure and come up with a growth strategy. And become more of a private sector bank so
it gain more operational freedom. Overall we feel the bank is fully valued in a sector we don’t like much for the time being.
Page 7
September 08th, 2010
Page 8
September 08th, 2010
Market activity
HoSE HNX
Ticker Price Chg % Ticker Price Chg % Ticker Price Chg % Ticker Price Chg %
MPC 35.7 1.7 5.00 DVD* 105 -39.00 -27.08 PJC 29.2 1.9 6.96 VC9 29.3 -2.20 -6.98
TLH 17.0 0.8 4.94 VOS** 14.4 -3.60 -20.00 SRA 24.7 1.6 6.93 TV3 17.4 -1.30 -6.95
VNA 19.3 0.9 4.89 L10 34.2 -1.80 -5.00 PVA 54.4 3.4 6.67 HCT 24.2 -1.80 -6.92
MHC 8.6 0.4 4.88 VNI 23.1 -1.20 -4.94 SMT 14.5 0.9 6.62 VE3 29.6 -2.20 -6.92
GIL 28.0 1.3 4.87 CTI 34.7 -1.80 -4.93 MIM 27.7 1.7 6.54 BTH 16.3 -1.20 -6.86
* The ex-right date ** New listed * The ex-right date ** New listed
Top 5 Active (by Volume) Top 5 Active (by Value) Top 5 Active (by Volume) Top 5 Active (by Value)
Ticker Volume % of Total Ticker USDMln % of Total Ticker Volume % of Total Ticker USDMln % of Total
TLH 2,620,780 5.0 VIS 4.1 6.3 PVX 6,714,300 12.4 PVX 8.1 11.5
SSI 1,763,930 3.4 SSI 2.6 3.9 KLS 4,807,100 8.9 PVA 5.2 7.4
VIS 1,759,550 3.4 TLH 2.3 3.4 PVC 2,962,200 5.5 PVC 5.0 7.1
DIC 1,471,460 2.8 DIC 2.0 3.0 TNG 2,127,100 3.9 AAA 4.0 5.7
ITC 1,455,630 2.8 ITC 1.9 2.9 PVA 1,856,100 3.4 KLS 3.8 5.4
* The ex-right date ** New listed * The ex-right date ** New listed
Top 5 Active by Foreigners (BUY) Top 5 Active by Foreigners (SELL) Top 5 Active by Foreigners (BUY) Top 5 Active by Foreigners (SELL)
KBC 16,102,013 85.15% GIL 19,250,000 82.04% PGS 676,900 22.92% PVX 7,114,200 3.91%
HAG 14,828,600 72.29% SJS 10,523,835 37.42% DBC 437,440 2.58% PVC 2,838,320 2.92%
BVH 12,740,705 90.25% FPT 9,934,965 78.56% PVI 425,840 16.20% CVT 396,120 6.46%
FPT 10,828,625 85.62% PVD 9,488,620 74.20% SGH 370,950 96.01% SGH 386,350 100.00%
KDC 10,403,870 72.48% SSI 8,867,453 17.32% CTN 360,500 14.40% BVS 215,000 1.29%
* The ex-right date ** New listed * The ex-right date ** New listed
193.0
200
-200
8/10/2010
8/11/2010
8/12/2010
8/13/2010
8/16/2010
8/17/2010
8/18/2010
8/19/2010
8/20/2010
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8/24/2010
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8/26/2010
8/27/2010
8/30/2010
8/31/2010
8/5/2010
8/6/2010
8/9/2010
9/1/2010
9/6/2010
9/7/2010
9/8/2010
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September 08th, 2010
Market activity
HoSE HNX
Ticker Volume (shares) Value (VND1,000) Ticker Volume (shares) Value (VND1,000)
ASM 110,000 7,385,000 AVS 2,800,000 31,080,000
CII 46,000 1,596,200 CSC 5,300 159,000
CTI 80,000 2,782,000 CVT 47,400 1,158,420
GIL 750,096 20,652,688 ECI 5,100 154,020
GMD 25,000 955,000 HDO 10,600 254,400
HBC 29,620 1,169,990 LTC 17,000 1,061,000
HPG 20,000 772,000 MKV 17,000 1,222,300
HRC 81,000 4,455,000 PHS 30,000 309,000
HSG 31,200 742,560 PLC 25,000 1,087,500
HTV 260,000 11,340,000 PVA 5,000 237,500
LCG 129,000 4,914,000 PVX 1,000,000 24,000,000
MCG 20,000 552,000 S91 11,900 445,060
NBB 30,000 2,490,000 S96 10,000 398,000
OGC 260,000 8,840,000 SHS 48,400 817,960
PDR 200,000 7,160,000 SME 100,000 2,690,000
PNC 48,000 494,000 SPP 15,000 379,500
PPC 20,000 268,000 TBX 15,000 555,000
SSI 40,000 1,120,000 TDN 75,600 2,268,000
STB 23,000 384,100 V15 50,000 2,000,000
TNT 230,000 6,946,000 VSP 61,600 2,372,600
VFMVF1 30,000 309,000 Total 4,349,900 72,649,260
VIS 117,660 5,471,190 Total % of market value 5.02%
VNM 200,000 17,600,000
VNS 72,000 2,498,400
VST 52,900 793,500
Total 2,905,476 111,690,628
Total % of market value 8.02%
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September 08th, 2010
FOOD - DRINK
REAL ESTATE
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSPORTATION
Page 11
September 08th, 2010
Markets at a glance
Key indicators
HoSE HNX Top 38 stocks by market capitalisation - HSC FY2010 outlook
# of stocks in index 253 328 FY2009 (Audited) FY2010 (HSC forecast) y/y
Market Cap (USDmn) 27,265.37 5,953.76 Sales 183,500,440 234,227,751 27.64%
Weighted Forward P/E 2010 11.1 8.2 Net profiit 30,069,039 33,383,246 11.02%
Weighted P/B 2.5 2.7 EPS * 6,081 6,583 8.26%
* Weighted by market cap
VCB* 38,000 1,210,086,026 45,983 2,361 975 39.0 2.8 2,871 13.2 3.0 2,130 17.8
BVH 50,000 626,709,079 31,335 1,609 1,171 42.7 3.5 1,501 33.3 3.5 1,257 39.8
VNM 88,000 353,055,550 31,069 1,595 7,015 12.5 2.7 6,771 13.0 2.8 7,636 11.5
CTG 19,900 1,517,297,280 30,194 1,550 N/A N/A N/A 2,028 9.8 1.9 1,626 12.2
MSN 49,000 485,399,820 23,785 1,221 N/A N/A 4.2 1,480 33.1 - 2,308 21.2
ACB 27,800 781,391,225 21,723 1,115 3,778 7.4 2.3 3,094 9.0 2.2 3,074 9.0
HAG 74,000 292,008,407 21,609 1,109 3,895 19.0 2.9 4,800 15.4 3.3 7,548 9.8
VIC 59,500 359,927,912 21,416 1,099 1,079 55.1 4.7 5,796 10.3 4.3 2,634 22.6
EIB 17,100 876,226,900 14,983 769 N/A N/A 1,306 13.1 - 1,447 11.8
STB 15,800 904,547,655 14,292 734 1,648 9.6 1.0 2,972 5.3 1.3 2,479 6.4
FPT 72,500 191,385,289 13,875 712 5,989 12.1 2.3 7,410 9.8 4.3 6,759 10.7
DPM 30,800 379,000,000 11,673 599 3,630 8.5 2.5 3,544 8.7 2.3 3,957 7.8
HPG 38,900 294,545,997 11,458 588 4,494 8.7 2.1 6,528 6.0 1.9 5,044 7.7
PVF 22,100 500,000,000 11,050 567 101 218.9 1.8 1,079 20.5 1.4 1,059 20.9
KBC 36,000 291,710,513 10,502 539 N/A N/A 2.0 3,292 10.9 N/A 2,831 12.7
SSI 28,500 351,111,742 10,007 514 1,718 16.6 1.7 5,483 5.2 1.3 2,181 13.1
SQC 96,500 100,000,000 9,650 495 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A - N/A N/A
PVD 44,100 210,508,215 9,283 477 5,597 7.9 3.7 4,600 9.6 2.4 4,283 10.3
OGC 33,200 250,000,000 8,300 426 N/A N/A N/A N/A - -
SJS 68,000 100,000,000 6,800 349 4,393 15.5 2.9 8,149 8.3 2.1 10,296 6.6
We use an exchange rate of 19,480 for the US$/VND * EPS of 7 months FY2008
550
USD 200 USD 200 180
500
USD 150 USD 150 160
450
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September 08th, 2010
Today’s News
Vietnam Credit Growth + Sept 8) Vietnam Crude Oil Export From March 1, Vinacomin,
15% in Jan-Aug Falls to 4.9M Tons in Jan- the country’s top miner, raised
Total outstanding loans of lo- Vietnam Eximbank to Estab- Jul: Ministry coal prices for the power
cal banks grew at a slow rate lish VND300B Debt Manage- Vietnam exported 4.9 million industry by between 28.23%
of 2.1% in August, resulting ment Firm metric tons of crude oil valued and 46.6%.
in eight-month growth of 15% Vietnam Export and Import at $3 billion in the first seven Despite the hike, the prices
versus full-year target of 25%, Commercial JS Bank (EIB), or months of this year, the Minis- account for 55% to 60% of
said the Vietnam National Eximbank, said it would set up try of Industry and Trade said prices for other local consum-
Financial Supervision Com- a one-member debt manage- late Tuesday. ers and represent between
mittee. ment and assets exploitation The figures indicated decreas- 36% and 40% of the export
The country’s broadest mea- limited company (AMC). es of 45.6% and 20.1% from a prices.
sure of total money supply, Eximbank AMC will have a year earlier, respectively, the Vietnam is forecast to become
M2, rose 13% compared to registered capital of VND300 ministry attributed. an energy importer by 2015,
the full-year estimate of 20%, billion ($15.38 million), the Crude oil export revenues although it is still boosting coal
the committee added. Ho Chi Minh City-based listed accounted for 7.7% of the na- exports and is estimated to
This is the second consecu- lender said in a statement. tional gross export revenues in squander around $1 million
tive month the country’s credit Eximbank made a net profit the Jan-Jul. worth of energy each day due
growth has been slowdown of VND712.74 billion in the Of the figures, the Southeast to inefficient energy use. (Dau
though local corporate de- first half of this year. Its six- Asian country shipped abroad Tu Sept 8 p2)
mand remains high, the com- month earning per share was 497.6 million metric tons of
mittee was quoted by the Lao VND810. crude worth $284.3 million in ADB Lends $100M to Irriga-
Dong newspaper as saying At end-June, Eximbank had July, representing on-month tion Project in Vietnam
Wednesday. total assets of VND73.69 falls of 42% and 42.9% and The Asian Development Bank
The credits rose 2.91% in trillion, rising 12.6% from on-year tumbles of 52.4% and (ADB) will provide a $100-
June and 2.45% in July, the end-2009. Total deposits rose 47.8%, respectively. million loan to improve irriga-
committee noted without clari- 21.8% to VND47.23 trillion Australia was Vietnam’s tion infrastructure in Vietnam,
fying the growth of outstanding while total credits expanded top crude oil importer in the the state-run Vietnam News
loans in dong and in foreign 12% to VND42.55 trillion. seven-month period with 1.8 Agency said Sept 8.
currencies in the first eight (www.eximbank.com.vn, hsx. million metric tons valued at An agreement to this effect
months. vn Sept 8) $1.1 billion, an on-year fall of was signed between ADB and
A recent data from the State 23.5% in volume despite a rise the State Bank of Vietnam in
Bank of Vietnam has shown Vietnam Exports to ASEAN of 4.5% in value. Hanoi on September 7.
that the forex credit growth of Rise 20.4% in Jan-Jul It was followed by Singapore The Strengthening Water
banks in Ho Chi Minh City, the Vietnam fetched $6.17 bil- with 915.517 million metric Management and Irrigation
country’s largest economic lion from exported goods to tons worth $540.39 million, Systems Rehabilitation Project
and financial hub, still out- ASEAN in the first seven Malaysia with 637.211 million will repair the 50-year-old Bac
paced the dong one between months of this year, up 20.4% metric tons valued at $386.9 Hung Hai irrigation and drain-
Jan and Aug. from a year earlier, the Dau tu million and the U.S. with age system in the northern
At end-Aug, total credits of newspaper reported Wednes- 386.03 million metric tons provinces of Hung Yen, Hai
banks in HCM City rose to day. worth $231.78 million. (vina- Duong and Hai Phong.
VND620 trillion, in which loans This is the first time Viet- net.com.vn Sept 7) It will also build a new train-
in foreign currencies were up nam’s exports to the bloc has ing centre for the Water
28.5% from end-2009 versus surpassed its shipments to Foreign Investors Want to Resources University which
the modest dong credit growth the EU at $5.98 billion during Use Vietnam Coal to Feed is expected to be completed
of 5.8%. the period , said the Deputy Power Projects in June, 2016 and benefits
Local banks have ever been Minister of Industry and Trade Several foreign investors 14,200 people. (Vietnam Plus
warned of unsustainable credit Nguyen Thanh Bien was cited want to use coal produced in Sept 8)
growth since their total dong by the Dau tu newspaper as Vietnam to feed their power
loans increased only 4.5% in saying Wednesday. projects in the Southeast
the first half, compared to a Vietnam’s export staples to Asian country, an official said.
surge of 27% in forex credits ASEAN are crude oil, rice, Nguyen Manh Hung, deputy
with U.S. dollar being the seafood, apparel and elec- general director of the state-
majority. tronic spare parts. run Vietnam National Coal-
Such imbalance is likely to In early April, the Ministry of Mineral Industries Group
put more pressures on U.S. Industry and Trade forecast (Vinacomin) was cited by the
dollar supply at local banks Vietnam will export $8.88 bil- Dau tu newspaper as saying
since their dollar-denominated lion worth of goods to ASEAN that low domestic coal prices
deposits have been shrunk off this year. (Dau tu Sept 8 p1) are very attractive to foreign
over the months. (Lao Dong power investors.
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198 TCL Tan Cang Logistics and Stevedoring Joint Stock Company 17,000,000
199 TCM Thanh Cong Garment and Textile JSC 37,438,243
200 TCR Taicera Enterprise JSC 8,450,167
201 TDC Binh Duong Trade and Development Joint Stock Company 20,000,000
202 TDH Thu Duc Housing Developing Corporation 25,250,000
203 TIC Tay Nguyen Electricity Investment JSC 16,582,600
204 TIE Telecommunications Industry Electronics Joint Stock Company 9,569,900
205 TIX Tan Binh Import – Export Joint Stock Company 12,000,000
206 TLG Thien Long Group Corporation 15,500,000
207 TLH Tien Len Steel Corporation Joint - Stock Company 54,000,000
208 TMP Thac Mo Hydro Power JSC 70,000,000
209 TMS Trans-Forwarding And Warehousing Corporation 10,102,626
210 TMT TMT Automobile Joint Stock Company 12,577,500
211 TNA Thien Nam Trading Import Export Corporation 8,000,000
212 TNC Thong Nhat Rubber JSC 19,250,000
213 TNT Tai Nguyen Corporation 8,500,000
214 TPC Tan Dai Hung Plastic JSC 20,546,000
215 TRA Traphaco JSC 10,198,150
216 TRC Tay Ninh Rubber JSC 30,000,000
217 TRI Sai Gon Beverages JSC 27,548,360
218 TS4 Sea Food JSC No. 4 8,470,350
219 TSC Techno- Agricultural Supplying JSC 8,312,915
220 TTF Truong Thanh Furniture Corporation 20,000,000
221 TTP Tan Tien Packaging Plastic JSC 14,999,998
222 TYA Taya Vietnam Wire and Cable JSC 5,578,493
223 UDC Urban Development and Construction Corporation 35,000,000
224 UIC IDICO Urban and House Development JSC 8,000,000
225 VCB Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Foreign Trade Of Viet Nam 112,285,426
226 VES Meca Vneco Investment and Electricity Construction JSC 9,007,500
227 VFC Vinafco JSC 20,000,000
228 VFG Viet Nam Fumigation Joint Stock Company 8,133,855
229 VHC Vinh Hoan Corp 30,000,000
230 VHG Viet Han Corporation 25,000,000
231 VIC Vincom JSC 199,627,238
232 VID Vien Dong Paper JSC 21,449,191
233 VIP Vietnam Petroleum Transport JSC 59,807,785
234 VIS Viet Nam - Italy Steel JSC 15,000,000
235 VKP Viky Plastic Joint Stock Company 8,000,000
236 VNA VINASHIP Joint Stock Company 20,000,000
237 VNE Vietnam Electricity Construction Corp 32,000,000
238 VNG Viet Nam Golf Tourism Joint Stock Company 13,000,000
239 VNH VIET NHAT SEAFOOD CORPORATION 8,023,071
240 VNI Vien Nam Land Investment Corporation 10,559,996
241 VNL Vinalink International Freight Forwarders 8,190,000
242 VNM Vietnam Dairy Products JSC 351,265,300
243 VNS Vietnam Sun Corporation 20,000,000
244 VPH Van Phat Hung JSC 20,083,285
245 VPK Vegetable Oil Packing JSC 8,000,000
246 VPL Vinpearl Tourism and Trading JSC 100,000,000
247 VRC Vung Tau Real Estate and Construction Joint Stock Company 10,116,910
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Global Disclaimer
Copyright 2008 Ho Chi Minh Securities Corporation (HSC). All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and is being issued by HSC
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public sources believed to be reliable. With the exception of information about HSC, HSC makes no representation about the accuracy
of such information. Opinions, estimates and projection expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of
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update, amend or in any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of the subject matter or opinion,
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Prices and availability of financial instruments are also subject to change without notice. This published research may be considered by
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