Perception and Belief in the Ballot Box

Perception (noun) - the ability to see, hear, or become aware of something

through the senses

• The way in which people perceive the reality around them affects
how they act.

• There is no more powerful agent of change than perception

• Evident in elections; people will vote against their best interest to

suit their subjective understanding of the world (and candidates)
around them.

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North Dakota/USA Counts
Overview
 United States and North Dakota Models

North Dakota Modeled Segments National Modeled Segments

• Trump Approval 169,117 • Trump Approval 68,168,673
• Tax Reform Approval 306,940 • Tax Reform Approval 101,319,096
• Generic Ballot R Sense: 234,696 • Generic Ballot R Sense: 73,565,962
• Generic Ballot Swing: 145,283 • Generic Ballot Swing: 32,927,287
• Generic Ballot D Sense: 50,709 • Generic Ballot D Sense: 76,158,640

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Political Environment
Overview
 North Dakotans’ View of the Nation
A plurality of likely voters believe the country is going in the right direction (47%), an increase of five-points since September of last year.

Top Groups

100% Right Direction %

90%
Republican 82%
80%
70% Conservative 71%
60%
Men 18-54 55%
50% 44% 42% 47%
43% 44% <College & $75k+ 54%
40%
41%
30%
17% Wrong track %
20% 13%
10% Liberal 87%
9%
0% Democrat 85%
June 2017 Sept 2017 March 4-6, 2018
Right Direction Unsure Wrong Track Moderate 62%

Independent/Other 49%

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 North Dakotans’ National Concerns

• The people of North Dakota

state the biggest issues facing
the nation are illegal
immigration and the
economy.
• Only 1% of respondents cite
energy (oil, gas, and coal) as
an important issue.

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 Ideologies in North Dakota

• Over half (52%) of the respondents

consider themselves conservative, with
over a quarter (26%) identifying as Conservative 52%
strongly conservative.
• Moderates make up more than three
times the number people who consider Liberal 10%
themselves to be liberal.

Moderate 34%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly Somewhat

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 Trump Approval Rating in North Dakota
Nearly three-in-five likely voters (59%) approve of the job Donald Trump has done as President.

Top Groups

Approve %

Approve 59% <College & $75k+ 69%

Minot/Bismark/Dickinson 65%

Men 18-54 62%

Disapprove 38%
Men 55+ 59%

Disapprove %
Refused 3%
Moderate 59%

College+ & <$75k 46%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly Not-so-strongly College+ & $75k+ 44%

Fargo/Valley City 43%

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 Trump Favorability Trend in North Dakota
Three-in-five likely voters (60%) have a favorable impression of President Trump, a decrease of four-points since September of last year.

Top Groups

100% 99% 99% 100% Favorable %

90% Republican 96%
80%
64% Conservative 85%
70% 60%
60% 56% <College & $75k+ 72%
50% Men 18-54 66%
40% 38% 32% 38%
30% Unfavorable %
20% Democrat 86%
10% 3% Liberal
5% 82%
0% 2%
June 2017 Sept 2017 March 4-6, 2018 Moderate 60%
Total Fav No Opinion Total Unfav Name ID College+ & $75k+ 47%

10 Image Ratio
1.6:1
 Midterm Turnout – Voter Enthusiasm Nationally
• Current Democrat voter enthusiasm most closely
resembles the 2006 midterm election where 2002 – 2018 Mid Term Election Voter Enthusiasm
Democrats picked up five U.S. Senate seats and 31 80%
seats in the House, taking back control of the House
and Senate. 70% 63%
62%
• This enthusiasm has already translated into 60% 52%
increased Democrat voter participation in the 2018 50% 46% 44% 42% 52%
elections.
40%
39% 41%
30%
32%
20%
10%
0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Republican Enthusiasm Democrat Enthusiasm

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 Primary Turnout in North Dakota and Comparable States

North Dakota
Voting Age Population vs Republican Primary Turnout
• Adult Population- 568,445 (2016 U.S. Census)
• 2018 Republican Primary Turnout – 69,541 (12%)
Montana
• Adult Population – 798,371
• 2018 Primary Turnout – 153,354(19%)
South Dakota
• Adult Population – 641,443
• 2018 Primary Turnout – 100,454 (16%)

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 2018 and 2014 North Dakota Primaries
2018
• Adult Population- 568,445 (2016 U.S. Census)
North Dakota Primary Voters
• 2018 Primary Turnout – 106,226 (18%)
100%
• Republican Votes: 69,541 (65%)
90%
• Democrat Votes: 36,685 (35%) 80%

70%
63% 65%

2014 60%

• Adult Population – 546,624 (2014 U.S. Census) 50%

•
40%
2014 Primary Turnout – 80,493 (15%) 37% 35%
30%
• Republican Votes: 50,339 (63%)
20%

• Democrat Votes: 30,154 (37%) 10%

0%
2014 2018

Republican Democrat

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 Energy (Oil, Gas and Coal)

North Dakota Residents National Modeled Segments

• 70% of residents are in favor of mining coal
for the next 50 years.
• 77% of North Dakotans favor coal as an
energy source.
• 93% of North Dakotans believe that the coal
industry provides jobs, tax revenue, and
affordable electricity.
• 84% of residents support a private and
public partnership to develop a new near-
zero emissions power plant.
• 61% of Americans believe that focusing on
alternative energy sources will result in
greater number of jobs
• Only 30% of American residents think that
more production of fossil fuels will result in a
greater number of jobs.
• 73% of Americans claim that the government
should emphasize alternative sources of fuel,
such as solar and wind power.

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 David Wolfson
(202) 470-6300
dwolfson@wpaintel.com

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