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DIGITAL POLITICS
Boost, Block, and Ban: The Next Decade of Digital Politics in Southeast Asia

Digital Democracy: A New Era of Digital Connectivity


Digital Picket line: Future of Political Technologies

Interview with Kan Yuanyong


Bibliometrics: A Tool for Foresight
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 2 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS

LEADER Welcome to this fourth issue of TrendNovation Southeast, which focuses on


the implications of the digital revolution on the political arena in Southeast Asia.
The phenomenon of ‘digital politics’ has swept across the region, presenting
governments with new challenges, dilemmas and threats, and citizens with new
opportunities to mobilize and be heard. But we also see this past decade as just
a period of ‘tooling up’. Convergence of digital tools and applications, along with
increasing political consciousness at grass roots level, promise far greater levels
of sophistication and perhaps even a transformation of the political game within
this decade.

We begin with an article by Dr Pun-Arj Chairatana, who offers a structured defi-


nition of digital politics. He points to technological innovation and convergence
as enablers for political and technological neophytes (‘netizens’, ‘cyber-libertar-
ians’), allowing them to challenge the traditional political landscape through a
new game of ‘virtual democracy’. Dr Pun-Arj reminds us too of the potentially
disruptive nature of such a shift, using the recent technology intensive cyber-
tactics used both by government and the red-shirt protesters in Thailand as an
example of the changing face of politics.

By The second article is written by Prof Ubonrat Siriyuvasak, media reform activist
Wyn Ellis and Professor of Communications at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. Con-
Chief Editor tending that the digitization of Southeast Asia has created rising expectations
in regard to basic rights and freedom of expression, Prof Ubonrat anticipates
a political awakening among ordinary citizens. Citing campaigns mounted by
the global Burmese diaspora, she points also to the power of the Net to identify
and mobilize like-minded people not only in their respective countries, but also
across the world.

Prof Ubonrat’s article is followed by a short commentary by Poomjit Sirawong-


prasert, who, as President of the Thai Hosting Service Providers Club and guest
lecturer in IT at Bangkok University International College, has long been a vocal
campaigner against internet censorship. She has played key roles not only in the
development of the internet in Thailand, but also in monitoring the associated
social, ethical and regulatory issues at regional and global levels. Her unique
perspective has enabled her to contribute an insightful article on the ascendan-
cy of digital politics as a force for accountability and grass-roots democracy in
Southeast Asia.

This month, TrendNovation Southeast interviews Kan Yuenyong, founder and


Director of the Siam Intelligence Unit, an alternative think tank and research
service focusing on social, environment, business and economic issues. Mr Kan
discusses the origins of digital politics in this region, and particularly identifies
tight State control over traditional media as a major factor in fuelling the influence
of digital media in Southeast Asia’s political arena.

Finally, the Trend Tools section discusses the use of bibliometrics to evaluate the
influence of emerging technologies or issues, and its versatility as a powerful tool
which can contribute new perspectives to foresight exercises such as scenario
planning.

This issue is also available online at http://www.trendsoutheast.org,


and we value your feedback and comments.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 3 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

Boost, Block, and Ban:


The Next Decade of Digital Politics
in Southeast Asia

What is Digital By
Politics? Dr Pun-Arj Chairatana,
Managing Director –
Noviscape Consulting
The first decade of the New Millennium saw a dramatic Group
increase in the extent and dynamism of the interface
between humans and information and communica-
tion technologies (ICTs) in Southeast Asia; this era increasing embrace by mainstream political parties
was marked especially by many new applications of of online platforms on social networking sites (espe-
wireless and internet technologies. The emergence cially Facebook and Twitter), individual and official
of this ‘digital economy’ signals a new era of growth party blogs and websites, community radio and SMS
through exploitation of a new asset or production fac- to communicate with voters. The networks, which are
tor- information. Over the past decade, technology powerfully anti-censorship, offer alternative platforms
has greatly potentiated the power of information to for news, information, and political mobilization, So-
shape the regional socio-political terrain. With ICTs cial networking sites are thought to be a factor in the
closely correlated with the spread of democracy, new organizational effectiveness of the April-May street
spaces and modalities for political debate and par- protests in Bangkok.
ticipation have opened up, giving new meaning and
momentum to the democratic process. In this new political cyber-battleground, old rules
don’t apply. Cronyism, long entrenched in Southeast
Over the next decade, we can anticipate these still- Asian power structures, will have to make room for
rudimentary tools to evolve towards a much higher the newcomers- powerful incumbent groups of cy-
level of sophistication. Waves of ICT applications ber-libertarians. In this article, we present three sce-
in politics have empowered groups of political neo- narios for digital politics in Southeast Asia - Boost,
phytes (‘netizens’, ‘cyber-libertarians’; ‘digitized- Block, and Ban. These scenarios consider alterna-
latecomers’), extending the power of people at the tive perspectives of the impact of digital interaction
bottom of the pyramid to shape and transform the among these three groups of power players and their
conventional Southeast Asian political game into a constituents.
stage of ‘virtual democracy”=’.

The seeds of such a potentially disruptive shift have Scenario A:


already germinated, as groups of increasingly net-
savvy citizens share political content in real time. In Boost Me Up with More
just seconds they can create exclusive cyber- and Byte!
on-air societies in order to engage in political lobby-
ing, networking, amplifying their own views, co-devel-
oping tools for movements demanding free speech, This scenario stems from the powerful and often
transparency and human rights. Such groups can oligopolistic market power of ICT / telecoms sectors
empower citizens, e.g. in roles such as watching the in Southeast Asian countries. Economic benefits
watchers, political protest, or arranging direct action. (pricing, taxation and monopoly power) will continue
It is important to note that direct action may manifest to constrain network coverage, bandwidth and costs,
itself in violent, as well as non-violent ways. thereby exacerbating the rural-urban digital divide.
The good news is that Southeast Asia’s digital
Today, Southeast Asia offers many examples of the infrastructure is slowly being upgraded, allowing

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 4 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS

unprecedented possibilities for visualization of large-


scale information in cyber space. This will pave the
Defining way for investment in vertical integration, retrieval
Digital Politics architecture, mega-data management, mining, and
storage. The region’s love affair with public-private
In a broad sense, digital politics is a process partnerships will extend to the ICT/telecom sectors
by which groups of people make digitally col- across ASEAN as well as the other ‘Big Three’ (China,
lective decisions. India, and Japan). Upgraded physical platforms will
Digital politics is mainly about the intersection increase net penetration and enhance participation
of politics, internet and other wireless tech- in a new digital society. For lower income earners,
nologies among Netizens and their particular gradually falling costs will open the door to a diversity
societies within a non-physical space through of access choices and widen opportunities to learn
connectivity and content. how to communicate and participate online. Political
__________________________________________________________
activism offers a new and intriguing playground for
such newcomers.
In a narrow sense, digital politics is an inter-
active process among key stakeholders in the Whether such a scenario will succeed in reducing the
digital economy, who seek for specific long- digital divide depends in large measure on access
term benefit and control over digital infrastruc- and connection cost. Governance issues are already
ture and content. emerging and may prove intractable (e.g. privacy,
censorship, political dissent, etiquette and national
__________________________________________________________
security). How will citizens participate in such a digi-
tal society? What level of political dissent will be tol-
Digital Politics erated, and how might the new-found tools for mass
Puzzles political mobilization destabilize nations?
Uniqueness of digital politics is convergence
of technologies and politics. This emerging is-
sue challenges us to see futuristic picture be-
Scenario B:
yond the current understanding on man and You Block, We hack!
his new machine.
Five elements of digital politics compose of The global volume of digital information increases by
connectivity, citizenship, circle, content, and the millisecond, mostly unverified and unrestrained
community. by censorship. An increasing threat to political stabil-
ity is presented by the prospect of digitally literate po-
litical foes, particularly those with extreme agendas,
mobilizing and manipulating Netizens for their specif-
ic purpose, and perhaps culminating in a real-life vio-
lent face-off. In this scenario, cyberlibertarians, which
could be pro- or anti- governing regimes will have
reach a sophisticated level of digital literacy. When
ordinary Netizens have the capability to use digital
technology, they will communicate and exchange
political idea freely, and a new techno-vocabulary
is already mounting. Political interests undoubtedly
appreciate the strategic significance of new digital
media but are struggling to build their understand-
ing and capacity to harness them strategically in the
digital propaganda war. The default reflex reaction
by government is to block and censor sites deemed
undesirable under often deliberately ambiguous and
subjective legal categories such as ‘the national in-
terest’.
Freedom of Speech
Source: http://vidajev.wordpress.com/2009/09/05/
But blocking access to politically sensitive informa-

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 5 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

tion including broadcasting guarantees that IT-savvy


originators will find alternative routes to safeguard
their cherished freedom of expression. The resulting
cat-and-mouse games, including hacking of websites
and use of anonymous proxy servers echoes gue-
rilla warfare more than classical war strategy. In this
case, the government is continually playing techno-
logical catch-up against a more technologically com-
petent adversary, often with no specific geographical
identity. Rarely have governments succeeded, and
then only in the short term, to block information from
their citizens. Truth will out!

Scenario C:
For security reasons,
Ban it!
Southeast Asia is full of cultural taboos, and digital
content deemed to attack or violate religious beliefs
or specific issues is often banned. These apply for
a classical norm that all governments want to moni-
tor their enemies’ communications, and their citizens.
However, as we noted above, such information is
hard to ban completely, and the internationalization Freedom on the Internet — Protest banner of Brazilian
of cultural mindsets accompanying internet use will bloggers and netizens
definitely desensitize Asians from at least some such
taboos. Source:
http://advocacy.globalvoicesonline.org/2008/11/16/brazil-
flash-mob-protest-against-digital-crimes-bill/
Recent political protests in Myanmar, Philippines,
and Thailand reflect the beginning of a complex glob-
al-scale battle between government groups wanting
to securitize and monitor their critics by controlling References:
and monitoring the electronic media. Netizens have
responded by encrypting sensitive their messages to Abbott, J. P. (2004) The Political Economy of the Internet in
frustrate such surveillance. Governments therefore Asia and the Pacific Digital Divides, Economic Competitive-
try to restrict availability of strong cryptography as ness, and Security Challenges. New York: Praeger.
much as possible.
Atkinson, R. D. and Ham, S. (2003) Does Digital Politics Still
Matter? In The New Atlantis, Fall 2003.
In the future, emerging issues associated with digi-
tal laws, rights and responsibilities will figure largely Boonruang, S. (2010) New media to continue growing in im-
in public debate, and will require great sensitivity to portance: Piracy, censorship remain user concerns, in Bang-
balance basic human legal rights against restrictions kok Post, 31 January 2010.
governing technology use. In this scenario, perhaps
the key question will be how ready are users to pro- Levy, S. (2001), Crypto: How the Code Rebels Beat the Gov-
tect the rights of others to defend their own digital ernment -- Saving Privacy in the Digital Age, Penguin 2001,
rights?
Shearer, J. and Gutmann, P. (1996) Government, Cryptogra-
phy, and the Right To Privacy, the Journal of Universal Com-
puter Science (J.UCS), Volume 2, No.3, p.113

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7914828.stm

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 6 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS

Digital Democracy:
A new era of digital connectivity

Digitization in
By
Prof Ubonrat Siriyuvasak, Southeast Asia
Chulalongkorn University
Independent online news, satellite television and lo-
cal cable services are mushrooming, offering alterna-
tives to traditional mainstream press and broadcast-
ing channels. Community radio networks also play an
increasing role, often playing a cat-and mouse game
with government as they test the limits of media
freedom by broadcasting via the Internet. Although
Trend 1: internet access in Thailand ranks behind Malaysia
and is approximately on par with Vietnam, the rise
Emergence of in digital connectivity is building new communica-
personalized content tive spaces, crossing age, gender, class and ethnic
boundaries in both urban and rural areas. Even with
through digital today’s comparatively low speeds and patchy con-
nectivity, the increasing complexity of digital matrices
connectivity allows news and information to crisscross the world
instantly, to inform, entice and entertain users and
audiences around the clock. Importantly, these net-
works are not only flourishing – they are co-evolving
The New Millennium has brought Southeast Asian with each other as well as with traditional media. The
society a step closer to a digital revolution triggered classical digital divide is being bridged through inno-
by the proliferation of information and communica- vation, presenting the ‘conventional’ digital paradigm
tion technologies (ICTs). Internet penetration is grow- with new and unfamiliar challenges.
ing fast across the region- in Thailand, penetration
jumped from 20.5% (13.4 million users) in 2007 to
25% (16.1 million users) in 2008 (NECTEC 2008,
Rising expectations for
2009). However, the 2009 survey also revealed a rights and freedom
new trend- a sudden jump in the richness of news
and information content on websites, but also an ex- of expression
plosion of user-generated content on web boards,
blogs and micro-blogs such as Twitter, SMS and so- In empowering individuals to instantly ‘publish’ to the
cial networking sites, notably Facebook. These ac- world, digital media has created a new battlefront as
tivities have also gone mobile in a big way, with smart citizens enthusiastically exercise their rights to infor-
phone use surging across the region. Convergence mation and freedom of expression. Although for the
and connectivity are making a dramatic difference to most part these rights are enshrined in law (e.g. in
the lives of citizens, especially in terms of information Thailand through the Constitution and the Official In-
access, political consciousness and public participa- formation Act), uncontrolled, most Southeast Asian
tion. Politicians have shifted uncomfortably in their seats governments view such developments as a threat to
with this democratization of information, and as political political stability.
activism migrates to an uncharted digital battleground.
But with individual citizens increasingly playing the
role of public watchdog using the new free media,

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 7 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

governments are subject to unprecedented scrutiny


and uncensored critique, ironically just as the inde- found ‘supporting’ the offence may also face charg-
pendence of traditional media has been inexorably es, with penalties ranging from three to fifteen years
curbed and undermined over the past decade. imprisonment (Article 9-16). After the coup in 2006
charges on lèse-majesté against individuals have in-
creased dramatically and MICT has shut down more
than 2,000 websites alleged to have contained lèse-
majesté material (Thai Netizen Network – TNN, 26
May 2009).

Thaksin Shinawatra’s strategy of media control and


Thailand model: intimidation sowed the seeds of polarization both in
politicization of the the media into ‘pro-Thaksin’ and ‘anti-Thaksin’ camps.
Government and Opposition, the élites, bureaucracy,
media judiciary, media and civil society organizations all
took sides in their efforts to capture audiences, votes
Under the Thaksin Shinawatra regime the media or political ends. Sondhi Limthongkul, Thaksin’s
faced increasing levels of intimidation, coercion and
defamation suits, creating what was seen as a ‘cli-
mate of fear’, rolling back previous progress in media
freedom (Asia Media Report 2006). Though Thak-
sin’s ouster by a military coup in September 2006
was unsurprisingly cheered by the mainstream me- friend-turned-foe, owner of satellite channel ASTV
dia, the euphoria was short-lived. Just as they helped and the Manager Media Group, played a key role in
legitimize the coup-appointed government of Prime mobilizing mass protests for the People’s Alliance for
Minister Surayud Chulanond, community radio chan- Democracy (PAD) in 2006, which led to the Septem-
nels and websites voic- ber coup. In 2008 ASTV carried live broadcasts of
ing criticism of the coup the PAD’s 193-day occupation of Government House
were summarily closed and Don Muang and Suvarnabhumi international air-
down. iTV, a commercial ports to subscribers nationwide, along with hard-hit-
television station owned ting political rhetoric (McCargo 2009). But the United
by Thaksin’s Shin Corp, Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) or
was even nationalized Red Shirts, organized by political supporters of Thak-
(Kularb 2007). The an- sin and his disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, also had
nual report of Freedom their own media voice. PTV or People TV, along with
House (an independent networks of community radio, cable TV, websites and
watchdog that monitors freedom and advocates for print media, mobilized their constituents, especially
democracy and human rights), in its assessment within his support base in the northeast. During the
of perceived democratic freedoms in each country, UDD rallies in 2008, 2009 and 2010 Thaksin con-
downgraded Thailand’s freedom of expression rank- stantly sent political messages from overseas via
ing from ‘free’ to ‘partially free’. satellite video link and Twitter.

Further curbing political criticism, the coup-appointed Digital media technology enabled both PAD and UDD
National Legislative Assembly (NLA) then passed to make use of satellite broadcasts, which proved
five media laws, with the Internet bearing the brunt technically difficult to censor. These media connect-
of the impact. The 2007 Computer-related Crime Act, ed with a wide range of digital networks such as local
under the Ministry of Information and Communica- cable services, community radio, the Internet, and
tions Technology (MICT), prohibits distribution and social web networks. Together, these media were ef-
falsification of information and visual images deemed fective in politicizing and radicalizing their audiences.
harmful to national and economic security, public Since they were not subject to any real governance
safety and services. The Act’s ambiguous language or requirement to offer balanced perspective, their
allows considerable room for interpretation, and in daily programmes not only reported, but also magni-
practice, allows officials to conduct raids to seize fied, over-simplified and distorted events to manipu-
servers or suspected computers. Service providers late audiences to suit political aims.

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 8 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS

Trend 2: and the nouveau middle classes in provincial cities


are actively engaging and organizing themselves
Digital mobilization along polarized political lines, typically characterized
and new political as an ideological confrontation between the tradi-
consciousness tional elite’s notion of ‘guided democracy’, protected
by the patronage system, versus ‘commoner democ-
racy’ in which citizens could exercise their political
From the 1990s to 2000s, Indonesia and the Philip- rights and participate freely and equally under the
pines underwent political transformation, which was rule of law (Mukdawijitra 2010).
dubbed as ‘digital democracy’. The movement to
But the depth of social polarization precipitated by re-
topple President Suharto in 1998 in Indonesia was
cent political events has dismayed and sorely embar-
driven by the underground press and the Internet. Al-
rassed many Thais, for whom unity and compromise
though at the time, the Internet was still a novel tech-
are national virtues. The disappointment of Bang-
nology, the anti-Suharto movement succeeded in ef-
kok’s middle class with the bias of the mainstream
fectively harnessing it to connect with and mobilize
media led to yet more, self-organized ‘pro-Abhisit’
Indonesians worldwide. Likewise, in the Philippines,
social networks, aiming to promote reconciliation be-
President Estrada resigned as a result of the People
tween the colour-coded foes. The Multi-Color Move-
Power II - EDSA 2 movement in 2001, in which SMS
ment, for example, mobilized large groups through
messages were the main medium used to inform and
their cyber networks and pitched themselves, in
mobilize protesters, earning the nickname ‘the text
weekly demonstrations, against the Red Shirts,
revolution’.
whose protests were widely blamed for damaging
Digital technologies are increasingly influencing poli- Thailand’s economy and international reputation. But
tics in Thailand, too. In the most recent violent con- it is not all about compromise- the ‘Social Sanction’
frontations between the Democrat-led government of group engages in contentious cyber warfare, hunting
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and UDD, which took and condemning anyone they deem to be ‘Red’. Dan
place in 2009 and 2010, the political struggle was Rivers of CNN was accused of biased reporting and
fought both on the streets and in cyberspace. Whilst Witawat Taaokamlue or Mark V11, a contestant on
the government crackdown of UDD protesters at Ra- the Academy Fantasia programme, was forced out
jadamnern and Rajaprasong in April and May 2010 of the contest due to his criticism of Prime Minister
resulted in 90 deaths and nearly 2,000 injured, the Abhisit on the Internet.
government used emergency powers to shut down
UDD’s media access, including PTV and several
magazines - Voice of Taksin, Truth Today, Thai Red
News and Wiwatha (CRES Order 71/2553), and over
two dozen community radio stations (CPMR 14 July
2010). The Ministry of Information and Communica-
tions Technology claims to have blocked 2,200 pro-
Redshirt websites (Thai Rath 15 June 2010) under
the same emergency powers.

Commentators view the popular/mass politics on the


Internet and other form of digital media as the rise of
a new-found political consciousness, unprecedented Source: http://nowsourcing.com/2008/04/14/
social-media-democracy/
in Thai society. Bangkok’s established middle classes

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 9 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

tinuing to tightly control public participation in the po-


litical arena. Progress in the ongoing transformation
of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos from centralized so-
cialist economies towards a more liberal market eco-
nomic model will undoubtedly be hampered unless
restrictions on political expression are relaxed in tan-
dem with economic liberalization. The case of Bur-
ma, where opposition voices are totally suppressed,
offers a dark perspective. The recent protests and
their global impact were only possible through exten-
sive use of mobile phones and the internet, with the
support from the global diaspora. Though ultimately
the protests were crushed, clearly the generals were
e-Democraccy
Source: http://vidajev.wordpress.com/2009/09/05/
shaken, and dissidents can take heart in the poten-
tial of digital media to accomplish positive political
change through giving citizens a real voice. The In-
Future trend of ternet and new forms of multimedia have given birth
‘digital democracy’ to a new generation of politically savvy citizens, who
perhaps can hold their governments more account-
Thailand’s embrace of online politics has transformed able than ever before.
the political landscape, which is heading into unchart-
ed waters. Whilst governments have historically cast
a long shadow over traditional media, the freedom of
digital media has also been heavily curbed; opposi- References
tion voices have been silenced using harsh new legal Asia Media Report: A Crisis Within. Bangkok: Inter-Press Ser-
vice Asia-Pacific.
measures that allow more extensive surveillance and
censorship of the Internet. But the color-coded poli- Campaign for Popular Media Reform (2010) Seminar on “Ban-
tics will be difficult to reconcile without an open public ning community radio under the Emergency Decree”, 14 July 2010.

forum for genuine political debate. Castells, M. (1997) “Informational politics and the crisis of de-
mocracy” in The Information Age: Economy, Society and Cul-
And therein lies the irony- in countries which enjoy ture – Volume II The Power of Identity. Oxford: Blackwell.
genuine freedom of expression through traditional
Kularb, P. (2007) “Communicating to the mass on cyberspace:
media, digital politics have had relatively little impact Freedom of expression and content regulation on the Internet”
compared with their phenomenal influence in South- in Chavarong Limpattamapanee and Srnaud Leveau (eds)
State and Media in Thailand During Political Transition, Bang-
east Asia. With the genie already out of the bottle,
kok: IRASEC.
ASEAN may see a significant political upsurge in the
coming years, as a popular and ultimately effective McCargo, D. (2009) “Thai politics as reality TV”, Journal of
Asian Studies. 68:1, February 2009, pp. 7–19.
popular weapon against State repression. For ex-
ample, In Malaysia where internet access averages Mukdawijitra, Y. (2010) Seminar on “Change in rural areas,
change in political constituents”, Journalist Association of
60%, the government’s continuous and unjustified Thailand, 18 July 2010.
suppression of political dissent prevents legitimate
NECTEC (2008) Internet User Profile of Thailand 2008, Bangkok.
and meaningful political debate, and can ultimately
lead to deeper and abrupt conflict. NECTEC (2009) Internet User Profile of Thailand 2009, Bangkok.

ASEAN countries today face increasing risks in con-

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 10 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS

Digital Picket line


Future of Political Technologies

single decade the internet subscription rate has qua-


By drupled, jumping from 3.7 million in 2000 to 16.9 mil-
Poomjit Sirawongprasert, lion in 2010. Malaysia internet dial-up subscriptions
President of also increased to 14.3 per 100 inhabitants in 2007
Thai Hosting Service compared to 13.9 per 100 inhabitants in 2006 while
Providers Club broadband subscriptions in 2007 was five per 100
inhabitants.

Thailand started its telecommunications and technol-


ogy development as the same time as Malaysia but
The 2000s: political instability slowed investment and hampered
A Decade of Cyber- implementation. But, by 2007, Thailand mobile phone
penetration rate had increased to 78.86 per 100 in-
migration habitants - the highest in the region. Internet penetra-
tion was 20.85 per 100 inhabitants and broadband
subscription was 2.59 per 100 inhabitants.
In 2000, the e-ASEAN Framework Agreement was In 2007, the Philippines had 58.88 per 100 inhabit-
launched to facilitate establishment of the Southeast ants for mobile phones subscribers and 4.48 per
Asia information infrastructure in order to leverage 100 inhabitants of fixed telephone lines. The com-
hardware and software systems needed to access, bined fixed-line and mobile cellular telephone den-
process and share information, and to promote re- sity therefore rose to about 63 telephones per 100
gional economic growth from electronic commerce persons, and 2.5 million (or 2.84 subscribers per 100
applications. These initiatives were aimed in part to inhabitants) of internet subscribers in the same year.
cope with the digital divide by ‘connecting the uncon-
nected’. ASEAN member countries have invested Politicians and political parties across the region are
seriously to improve their telecommunication sectors increasingly developing digital content and engaging
and public infrastructure, according to guidelines un- in online communities. All of them have online public
der the e-ASEAN initiative. relations departments to announce party policy, of-
fer opinions on certain issues, obtain feedback, and
Even though levels of ICT competency within mem- track results. Many politicians have set up their own
ber countries still differ considerably, after a decade blog sites, and high-profile figures make daily use of
of e-ASEAN development there are signs that the re- their Twitter and Facebook accounts to rouse sup-
gional digital divide is indeed narrowing. In general, port, attack their opponents, comment on current af-
Southeast Asian today has a fairly high level of digital fairs and publicize their political messages.
mobility with partial accessibility to the internet.
In a region where for the most part, the media are
According to the International Telecommunication tightly controlled and monitored, ICTs present politi-
Union (ITU), Malaysia was the first country in the re- cians with a dilemma. With their control over informa-
gion to introduce a cellular network. By the end of tion challenged by the prospect of unprecedented,
2007, there were 23 million cellular subscribers with un-moderated and free debate, to survive they must
a penetration rate of 85.1 per 100 inhabitants. In a also recognize and embrace its power to reach the

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 11 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

people. With political dissent still barely tolerated in coverage and lower access costs in order to stimu-
many Southeast Asian countries, ICTs present simi- late diffusion of digital literacy from urban first adopt-
lar challenges to authority in the broader cultural and ers to the wider population.
social milieu. Governments have reacted with some-
In Thailand the digital divide is alive and well, thanks
times sweeping and draconian regulatory measures
to a telecommunication infrastructure that could
that potentially might be used to target anything
hardly be described as among the best in the region.
deemed ‘undesirable’. When denied legitimate av-
As rural areas are poorly served by internet service
enues for comment, complaint and criticism, human
providers, local cable network TV and community ra-
ingenuity will always find alternative ways to discuss
dio are the major information portals. There are also
and air their views, in this case in cyberspace. For
continuing difficulties, discontinuities, and delays
example, the Malaysian ruling party’s loss of its two-
in upgrading physical infrastructure and regulatory
thirds parliamentary majority in the March 2008 gen-
development. At present, 3G or WIMAX services—
eral elections was credited largely to increased ac-
which would at a stroke result in almost universal
cess to information from digital sources. Because the
geographical coverage and Net accessibility—have
opposition was denied balanced coverage in main-
yet to be approved. Nevertheless, internet and mo-
stream media, it relied on alternative media such as
bile subscriptions are increasing rapidly due to fall-
the Internet, blogs, SMS, mailing lists, Listservs, and
ing costs and the novelty of enjoying new alternative
YouTube to communicate its campaign messages to
ways to connect with people.
the public.

With few exceptions, Southeast Asian nations have


a diversity of alternatives to traditional media, rang- Trend 2:
ing from conventional dial-up, broadband, local cable
network televisions, community radios and short Censorship as Motive for
messaging services (SMS). Yahoo estimates that up Political Cyber-Wars
to 16 percent of the Philippine population browse the
Web and use the Internet in other ways. ITU esti-
mates that by the end of 2010, the Philippines will
have 29.7 million internet users. Such statistics offer Governments in the region usually justify censorship
a pointer to a significantly increased ‘migration’ of or- as necessary on grounds of ‘cultural appropriateness’
dinary people who have shifted to digital platforms for or national security, and argue that citizens must be
communications for both work and play. ready to accept some sacrifice of personal privacy
in the interests of individual as well as national se-
curity. Given the phobias of governments over such
an uncontrolled and potent medium, we can expect
Trend 1: a greater level of regulatory control and surveillance
Digital Divide 2.0! in coming years. Moreover, ASEAN governments will
likely seek co-operation among ASEAN members in
regard to enforcement of restrictions / censorship not
Digital literacy has increased dramatically in South- only of political content, but also on filtering other ille-
east Asian urban centers, and of course has been gal or ‘socially undesirable’ content such as pornog-
central to the vibrant growth in e-businesses, inter- raphy, gambling, fake drugs and so on. Net filtering is
net-related jobs, digital media, cyber-communities, indeed a daunting task, but China has already dem-
and certainly digital politics across the region. And onstrated its feasibility, and technological advances
yet the digital divide remains, with rural areas poorly will make this a realistic proposition elsewhere.
served by private sector internet service providers For example, the Vietnamese government plans
(ISPs). The middle classes are increasingly familiar to use the Chinese internet filtering system, which
with ICTs at work, and a new generation has grown is known as ‘The Great Firewall’ to block and take
up with the Net as an essential city-lifestyle survival down the web sites. The Indonesian government,
tool. Rural populations desperately need improved

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 12 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS

which enacted the Anti-Pornography Law in 2008 Trend 3:


is under pressure from hard-line puritanical Indone-
sians to make pornographic websites inaccessible in Government censorship:
Indonesia. A Hacker’s New Toy
Given the tight control over traditional media by most
Southeast Asian governments, self-censorship is
commonplace. In their attempts to gain advantage in To be effective, such campaigns require a high level
the information war, governments are now focusing of technological expertise- which today is readily
on digital censorship, and increasingly attempt to ban available in the wake of heavy job losses in the IT
or block websites of their critics to protect the govern- sector resulting from the global economic crisis. As a
ing regime. result, disaffected groups of hackers have gathered
to mount cyber-attacks on online businesses and
In Thailand, political cyber-wars have become a reality
to sabotage security networks. These underground
since the military coup in 2006, and the trend shows
anti-establishment networks have expanded con-
every sign of intensifying over the next decade. The
siderably in numbers, knowledge, skill, and are ac-
post-coup government ramped up its internet censor-
knowledged for their ability to stay one jump ahead
ship measures, particularly against the United Front
of their targets. Significantly, their connections with
for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), estab-
political groups in the region have also strengthened
lished as a political movement to oppose the coup.
considerably.
Since then censorship has continued to intensify;
many websites and other media sympathetic to the Recent incidents in the Philippines support this ob-
UDD have been shut down under Thailand’s emer- servation. The websites of the Philippine Information
gency, computer-crime, and strict lèse majesté laws. Agency, Philippine National Police, Bulacan Provin-
A total of 17,775 sites have been blocked, including cial government, and Hagonoy town were hacked
pornographic as well as political sites. when angry residents demonstrated digitally against
the botched handling of the Manila hostage crisis on
The reason behind such a grand scale cyber-oper-
23 August 2010, which left 8 hostages dead. In addi-
ation was that the UDD had established a complex
tion, President Benigno Aquino’s personal Facebook
network of ‘cyber-demonstrations’ spanning web
account, which is linked to his official website, has
forums, email list or listservs, chat rooms, commu-
been flooded by hate messages over the incident
nity radio and satellite TV channels. Technological
so that he continues to have to censor his Facebook
advances allowed live internet streaming broadcasts
page.
of onsite political protests on laptops connected to
the internet via mobile phone, and social networking Many Southeast Asians have acquired digital literacy
sites, community radio, and SMS were extensively skills through a decade of learning and daily exposure
used to mobilize UDD’s supporters and allies. Then, to the internet and smartphones. For such groups,
those live streaming files were archived and uploaded acquiring and spreading messages and information
to file sharing sites such as youtube.com and so on. are second nature, and the internet is now the domi-
Attempts to block and ban these sites were simply nant medium for exchanging news and opinions, ar-
answered by shifting to peer to peer (P2P) networks ranging meetings and sharing files such as photos,
to disseminate these files. video and audio clips. The Net has finally given ordi-
nary citizens a louder voice. No matter how far gov-
ernments are willing to go to silence opposition, the
genie is out of the bottle, and governments must face
an upsurge in grassroots democracy which increas-
ingly embraces citizens’ real views. Hopefully this will
result in greater accountability and transparency in
Cyber War government, and increased congruence between the
Source: http://www.chinahearsay.com/cia-chief-it-takes-two-conduct-cyberwar/
interests of citizens and the State.

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 13 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

References
INTERVIEW
Growth Rate of Mobile Phone Usage in Malaysia, Koh Yun
Sing and Ow Siew Hock, http://eprints.um.edu.my/790/1/115-
118_%287-29%29.pdf
with
‘.my’ Malaysia, Musa Abu Hassan and Siti Zobidah Omar,
Digital Review of Asia Pacific 2009–2010, http://www.digital-
Kan Yuanyong,
review.org/uploads/files/pdf/2009-2010/chap-29_malaysia.pdf
Founder of
Siam Intelligence
Malaysia Internet Usage Stats and Marketing Report, as of
June 2009, http://www.internetworldstats.com/asia/my.htm

Digital Review of Asia Pacific 2009–2010 ‘.th’ Thailand, http://


www.digital-review.org/uploads/files/pdf/2009-2010/chap-
40_thailand.pdf
Unit (SIU)
Digital Review of Asia Pacific 2009–2010 ‘.ph’ Philippines,
http://www.digital-review.org/uploads/files/pdf/2009-2010/ What are the origins of
chap-36_philippines.pdf
Digital Politics in this
Vietnam steps up China-style Internet control, Ian Timberlake
(AFP), Jun 30, 2010, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/
region?
article/ALeqM5hA8pq6_UjvyWk1e7AQ-8jexjIXTA
The use of digital media for political debate in this
Tifatul’s War on Porn Enlists 10 New Soldiers, Ismira Lut- region has flourished in recent years. In Thailand, for
fia, August 31, 2010, http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/ example, the popular Pantip.com website has a web
tifatuls-war-on-porn-enlists-10-new-soldiers/393878 board “Ratchadamnoen Room” dedicated to political
issues. It began as an online forum for a small group
of people from all walks of life to discuss politics. The
forum was not deliberately used as part of any po-
litical movement, and for a while, had no significant
impact beyond the digital world.

However, things changed as the number of online


participants increased, and the forum began to be
quoted more frequently in the mainstream political

About
Mr. Kan Yuanyong
Mr. Kan Yuanyong is founder and Director of Siam Intelligence
Unit (http://www.siamintelligence.com), an alternative think
tank and research service on various social, environment,
business and economic issues. He was also a co-developer of
the Thailand Political Base website (http://www.politicalbase.
in.th), funded by The Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF)
and Thai RuralNet (http://www.trnlab.org). Mr Kan was
selected by The Friedrich Naumann Foundation to represent
Thailand in seminars in Strategic Planning 2009 and New
Public Management 2009, held at the International Academy
for Leadership, Germany. Formerly at the National Electronics
and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC), Thailand, he
currently serves as a committee member for the Thai Netizen
Network (http://www.thainetizen.org).

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 14 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS

media. Then the movement gained massive momen- such as TV campaigns, roadshows and home visits.
tum as it threw its support behind efforts to expel the Digital media are playing an increasingly strong and
former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. This and effective role in monitoring politicians and public of-
similar online fora saw a huge influx of users. Some ficials. Still largely free from the chains of censorship,
news companies were able to ride this digital band- they are becoming an essential component of a gov-
wagon early and successfully- a notable example ernance system.
being Thailand’s Manager Group, which transformed
itself from a traditional newspaper publisher to a Another interesting trend is that the realm of digital
leading online news network. The key factors behind politics of course transcends physical borders. An
its success are the speedy and real-time update of example is a web board in which most users are
news and the controversial and often sensational Cambodian. But on the hot topic of the Cambodia-
content that draws the reader’s attention. Thailand conflict over the Temple of Preah Vihear,
Thai participants also participate in the debate and
At the regional level, the leader in digital politics is express their opinions in English.
Malaysiakini. Because of Malaysia’s strict censorship
over the broadcast and print media, people saw on-
line media as a freer and more promisingly alterna- What is the flipside of
tive. Malaysiakini is a product of such a shift, and has
grown into what is arguably the best-known online
these trends?
news website in Southeast Asia. Since the begin-
ning, Malaysiakini presented itself as an alternative Online political participation and mobilization so far
source of news and truth, often covering controver- seems in general to be limited to the middle and up-
sial issues and viewpoints considered taboo by main- per classes in big cities. Internet connectivity is still
stream media. Its readership continues to increase, expensive in most countries in this region, so only the
even after the website started charging membership relatively affluent are able to participate in this trend.
fees to view its content. Following in Malaysiakini’s The problems of social and urban-rural inequity are
footsteps, similar websites focusing on political and quite evident when it comes to digital politics. As sev-
social issues have sprung up in other countries in eral countries in this region continue to tackle issues
Southeast Asia, including Prachatai in Thailand. of inequality and social justice, the limited circle and
disproportionate demographic of digital politics may
polarize these societies even further. I see an impor-
What do you see as the tant role for the State in promoting digital connectivity
most important emerging to reduce the digital divide, to empower more people
to participate directly in political activities in the digital
trends in digital politics space.
in this region? We also see across the region the state’s increasing
Across Southeast Asia, information flow is becoming control over the digital space, with more and more
more dynamic, and citizens’ roles are changing fast. legislation passed to allow internet censorship, usual-
Today we are seeing a much higher level of two-way ly citing national security and social order as grounds
communication between media and their audiences. for censorship. Cyber-freedom advocates consider
Readers, viewers and listeners are no longer content such censorship as unnecessary and counterpro-
to sit back and passively consume – they now also ductive. I personally support freedom of expression
want to generate and exchange their own informa- as long as it does not violate other people’s rights.
tion. The modus operandi of political exchange and However, some societies may need more time to de-
mobilization is shifting from online web boards, to for- velop a culture that allows people to freely debate ta-
warded emails, to social-network sites. Smartphones boo topics. Finally, the cultural and ethical norms that
are increasingly used not just for clunky SMS mes- serve to moderate our behaviour in the real world are
saging, but also to chat real-time as in the case of the often forgotten in the freewheeling online world, and
Blackberry, and to communicate via Facebook and so we also need to develop a greater sense of re-
Twitter to instantaneously exchange political news sponsibility- or ‘cyber-ethics’ among internet users.
and views. People can express their ideas more hon-
estly, sometimes anonymously. It has also become
easier to mobilize people connected virtually than
through prohibitively expensive traditional means

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 15 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

TREND TOOLS
Bibliometrics
A Tool for Foresight

By
Dr. Alisa Kongthon,
National Electronics
and Computer Technology Graph layout of the MIT social web.
Analyzed by bibliometrics method
Center (NECTEC) Source: http://www10.org/program/society/yawyl/
YouAreWhatYouLink.htm

The use of bibliometrics —the number of research co-word analysis uses the co-occurrence of
papers published and how often they are cited— keywords in publications on a given subject to
uses statistics and quantitative analysis to describe establish relationships among documents.
patterns of publication within any given field. Biblio-
metrics measures the output of science by generat- Examples of bibliometric studies in Southeast Asia
ing quantitative data that can be used to evaluate the include technology trends and forecasts of RFID by a
influence of emerging technologies or issues, and is historical review and bibliometric analysis from 1991
a versatile tool which can contribute to foresight ex- to 2005 conducted by the National Electronic and
ercises such as scenario planning. Computer Technology Center (NECTEC), Thailand,
and Mapping of Science and Technology Knowledge
Bibliometric studies are grounded in three important Productivity in Malaysia since 2003, by the Malay-
laws: Lotka’s law of scientific productivity; Bradford’s sian Agency for Science and Technology Information
law of scatter, and Zipf’s law of word occurrence. (MASTIC),
These laws provide the basis for the three main indi-
cators used in bibliometric studies: Bibliometrics has come of age in the age of the inter-
net, with its wealth of content, and especially in the
• Publication count: total number of scien- emergence of powerful search tools. The emerging
tific publications or patents published by re- field of webmetrics, or cybermetrics, applies biblio-
searchers in a specified field. Publication or metric techniques to the worldwide web, mapping
patent counts are most useful for providing and ranking sites according to the intensity of their
an estimate of research interest, and total hyperlinks to other sites.
research output;
• Citations and impact factor: Number of
citations is a useful proxy for the scientific and Further reading:
even the social impact of research. The more Asgari, B., and Wong, C. H. (2007) Depicting the Technology
significant the work, the more it is cited; and Economic Development of Modern Malaysia, Asian Jour-
• Co-citation and co-word analysis: is used nal of Technology Innovation Volume 15, Issue 1 2007.
to measure linkages among publications,
Daim, T. U., Ruedaa, G., Martina, H., and Gerdsria, P. (2006)
including patents. Co-citation and co-word Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Is-
indicators can be combined with publication sue 8, October 2006, pp. 981-1012
and citation counts to build multifaceted
representations of research fields, the MASTIC (2003), “Science and Technology Knowledge Pro-
ductivity in Malaysia”, Bibliometric Study 2003, Putrajaya: Ma-
linkages among them, and the actors who
laysian Science and Technology Information Center.
are shaping them. Co-citation analysis can
help us monitor how different sub-domains of http://etd.gatech.edu/
science change and evolve over time, whilst

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana
Prof. Ubonrat Siriyuvasak
Ms. Poomjit Sirawongprasert
Dr. Alisa Kongthon
Writers / Information Specialist
Worapol
Paiboonbudsrakum
Project co-ordinator Trendnovation
William Wyn Ellis
Southeast
Chief Editor Newsletter
is published by
Pinchathana Atthiwatthana
Graphic Designer
Noviscape Consulting Group (NCG)
www.noviscape.com
Regional Horizon / Environment -
Scanning (HS/ES)
and trend monitoring for issues
relevant to people, life, and
Contact us
regional transformation across the
contact@trendsoutheast.org
Southeast Asian region.
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