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DIGITAL POLITICS
Boost, Block, and Ban: The Next Decade of Digital Politics in Southeast Asia
By The second article is written by Prof Ubonrat Siriyuvasak, media reform activist
Wyn Ellis and Professor of Communications at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. Con-
Chief Editor tending that the digitization of Southeast Asia has created rising expectations
in regard to basic rights and freedom of expression, Prof Ubonrat anticipates
a political awakening among ordinary citizens. Citing campaigns mounted by
the global Burmese diaspora, she points also to the power of the Net to identify
and mobilize like-minded people not only in their respective countries, but also
across the world.
Finally, the Trend Tools section discusses the use of bibliometrics to evaluate the
influence of emerging technologies or issues, and its versatility as a powerful tool
which can contribute new perspectives to foresight exercises such as scenario
planning.
What is Digital By
Politics? Dr Pun-Arj Chairatana,
Managing Director –
Noviscape Consulting
The first decade of the New Millennium saw a dramatic Group
increase in the extent and dynamism of the interface
between humans and information and communica-
tion technologies (ICTs) in Southeast Asia; this era increasing embrace by mainstream political parties
was marked especially by many new applications of of online platforms on social networking sites (espe-
wireless and internet technologies. The emergence cially Facebook and Twitter), individual and official
of this ‘digital economy’ signals a new era of growth party blogs and websites, community radio and SMS
through exploitation of a new asset or production fac- to communicate with voters. The networks, which are
tor- information. Over the past decade, technology powerfully anti-censorship, offer alternative platforms
has greatly potentiated the power of information to for news, information, and political mobilization, So-
shape the regional socio-political terrain. With ICTs cial networking sites are thought to be a factor in the
closely correlated with the spread of democracy, new organizational effectiveness of the April-May street
spaces and modalities for political debate and par- protests in Bangkok.
ticipation have opened up, giving new meaning and
momentum to the democratic process. In this new political cyber-battleground, old rules
don’t apply. Cronyism, long entrenched in Southeast
Over the next decade, we can anticipate these still- Asian power structures, will have to make room for
rudimentary tools to evolve towards a much higher the newcomers- powerful incumbent groups of cy-
level of sophistication. Waves of ICT applications ber-libertarians. In this article, we present three sce-
in politics have empowered groups of political neo- narios for digital politics in Southeast Asia - Boost,
phytes (‘netizens’, ‘cyber-libertarians’; ‘digitized- Block, and Ban. These scenarios consider alterna-
latecomers’), extending the power of people at the tive perspectives of the impact of digital interaction
bottom of the pyramid to shape and transform the among these three groups of power players and their
conventional Southeast Asian political game into a constituents.
stage of ‘virtual democracy”=’.
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 4 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 5 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER
Scenario C:
For security reasons,
Ban it!
Southeast Asia is full of cultural taboos, and digital
content deemed to attack or violate religious beliefs
or specific issues is often banned. These apply for
a classical norm that all governments want to moni-
tor their enemies’ communications, and their citizens.
However, as we noted above, such information is
hard to ban completely, and the internationalization Freedom on the Internet — Protest banner of Brazilian
of cultural mindsets accompanying internet use will bloggers and netizens
definitely desensitize Asians from at least some such
taboos. Source:
http://advocacy.globalvoicesonline.org/2008/11/16/brazil-
flash-mob-protest-against-digital-crimes-bill/
Recent political protests in Myanmar, Philippines,
and Thailand reflect the beginning of a complex glob-
al-scale battle between government groups wanting
to securitize and monitor their critics by controlling References:
and monitoring the electronic media. Netizens have
responded by encrypting sensitive their messages to Abbott, J. P. (2004) The Political Economy of the Internet in
frustrate such surveillance. Governments therefore Asia and the Pacific Digital Divides, Economic Competitive-
try to restrict availability of strong cryptography as ness, and Security Challenges. New York: Praeger.
much as possible.
Atkinson, R. D. and Ham, S. (2003) Does Digital Politics Still
Matter? In The New Atlantis, Fall 2003.
In the future, emerging issues associated with digi-
tal laws, rights and responsibilities will figure largely Boonruang, S. (2010) New media to continue growing in im-
in public debate, and will require great sensitivity to portance: Piracy, censorship remain user concerns, in Bang-
balance basic human legal rights against restrictions kok Post, 31 January 2010.
governing technology use. In this scenario, perhaps
the key question will be how ready are users to pro- Levy, S. (2001), Crypto: How the Code Rebels Beat the Gov-
tect the rights of others to defend their own digital ernment -- Saving Privacy in the Digital Age, Penguin 2001,
rights?
Shearer, J. and Gutmann, P. (1996) Government, Cryptogra-
phy, and the Right To Privacy, the Journal of Universal Com-
puter Science (J.UCS), Volume 2, No.3, p.113
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7914828.stm
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 6 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS
Digital Democracy:
A new era of digital connectivity
Digitization in
By
Prof Ubonrat Siriyuvasak, Southeast Asia
Chulalongkorn University
Independent online news, satellite television and lo-
cal cable services are mushrooming, offering alterna-
tives to traditional mainstream press and broadcast-
ing channels. Community radio networks also play an
increasing role, often playing a cat-and mouse game
with government as they test the limits of media
freedom by broadcasting via the Internet. Although
Trend 1: internet access in Thailand ranks behind Malaysia
and is approximately on par with Vietnam, the rise
Emergence of in digital connectivity is building new communica-
personalized content tive spaces, crossing age, gender, class and ethnic
boundaries in both urban and rural areas. Even with
through digital today’s comparatively low speeds and patchy con-
nectivity, the increasing complexity of digital matrices
connectivity allows news and information to crisscross the world
instantly, to inform, entice and entertain users and
audiences around the clock. Importantly, these net-
works are not only flourishing – they are co-evolving
The New Millennium has brought Southeast Asian with each other as well as with traditional media. The
society a step closer to a digital revolution triggered classical digital divide is being bridged through inno-
by the proliferation of information and communica- vation, presenting the ‘conventional’ digital paradigm
tion technologies (ICTs). Internet penetration is grow- with new and unfamiliar challenges.
ing fast across the region- in Thailand, penetration
jumped from 20.5% (13.4 million users) in 2007 to
25% (16.1 million users) in 2008 (NECTEC 2008,
Rising expectations for
2009). However, the 2009 survey also revealed a rights and freedom
new trend- a sudden jump in the richness of news
and information content on websites, but also an ex- of expression
plosion of user-generated content on web boards,
blogs and micro-blogs such as Twitter, SMS and so- In empowering individuals to instantly ‘publish’ to the
cial networking sites, notably Facebook. These ac- world, digital media has created a new battlefront as
tivities have also gone mobile in a big way, with smart citizens enthusiastically exercise their rights to infor-
phone use surging across the region. Convergence mation and freedom of expression. Although for the
and connectivity are making a dramatic difference to most part these rights are enshrined in law (e.g. in
the lives of citizens, especially in terms of information Thailand through the Constitution and the Official In-
access, political consciousness and public participa- formation Act), uncontrolled, most Southeast Asian
tion. Politicians have shifted uncomfortably in their seats governments view such developments as a threat to
with this democratization of information, and as political political stability.
activism migrates to an uncharted digital battleground.
But with individual citizens increasingly playing the
role of public watchdog using the new free media,
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 7 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER
Further curbing political criticism, the coup-appointed Digital media technology enabled both PAD and UDD
National Legislative Assembly (NLA) then passed to make use of satellite broadcasts, which proved
five media laws, with the Internet bearing the brunt technically difficult to censor. These media connect-
of the impact. The 2007 Computer-related Crime Act, ed with a wide range of digital networks such as local
under the Ministry of Information and Communica- cable services, community radio, the Internet, and
tions Technology (MICT), prohibits distribution and social web networks. Together, these media were ef-
falsification of information and visual images deemed fective in politicizing and radicalizing their audiences.
harmful to national and economic security, public Since they were not subject to any real governance
safety and services. The Act’s ambiguous language or requirement to offer balanced perspective, their
allows considerable room for interpretation, and in daily programmes not only reported, but also magni-
practice, allows officials to conduct raids to seize fied, over-simplified and distorted events to manipu-
servers or suspected computers. Service providers late audiences to suit political aims.
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 8 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 9 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER
forum for genuine political debate. Castells, M. (1997) “Informational politics and the crisis of de-
mocracy” in The Information Age: Economy, Society and Cul-
And therein lies the irony- in countries which enjoy ture – Volume II The Power of Identity. Oxford: Blackwell.
genuine freedom of expression through traditional
Kularb, P. (2007) “Communicating to the mass on cyberspace:
media, digital politics have had relatively little impact Freedom of expression and content regulation on the Internet”
compared with their phenomenal influence in South- in Chavarong Limpattamapanee and Srnaud Leveau (eds)
State and Media in Thailand During Political Transition, Bang-
east Asia. With the genie already out of the bottle,
kok: IRASEC.
ASEAN may see a significant political upsurge in the
coming years, as a popular and ultimately effective McCargo, D. (2009) “Thai politics as reality TV”, Journal of
Asian Studies. 68:1, February 2009, pp. 7–19.
popular weapon against State repression. For ex-
ample, In Malaysia where internet access averages Mukdawijitra, Y. (2010) Seminar on “Change in rural areas,
change in political constituents”, Journalist Association of
60%, the government’s continuous and unjustified Thailand, 18 July 2010.
suppression of political dissent prevents legitimate
NECTEC (2008) Internet User Profile of Thailand 2008, Bangkok.
and meaningful political debate, and can ultimately
lead to deeper and abrupt conflict. NECTEC (2009) Internet User Profile of Thailand 2009, Bangkok.
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 10 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 11 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER
people. With political dissent still barely tolerated in coverage and lower access costs in order to stimu-
many Southeast Asian countries, ICTs present simi- late diffusion of digital literacy from urban first adopt-
lar challenges to authority in the broader cultural and ers to the wider population.
social milieu. Governments have reacted with some-
In Thailand the digital divide is alive and well, thanks
times sweeping and draconian regulatory measures
to a telecommunication infrastructure that could
that potentially might be used to target anything
hardly be described as among the best in the region.
deemed ‘undesirable’. When denied legitimate av-
As rural areas are poorly served by internet service
enues for comment, complaint and criticism, human
providers, local cable network TV and community ra-
ingenuity will always find alternative ways to discuss
dio are the major information portals. There are also
and air their views, in this case in cyberspace. For
continuing difficulties, discontinuities, and delays
example, the Malaysian ruling party’s loss of its two-
in upgrading physical infrastructure and regulatory
thirds parliamentary majority in the March 2008 gen-
development. At present, 3G or WIMAX services—
eral elections was credited largely to increased ac-
which would at a stroke result in almost universal
cess to information from digital sources. Because the
geographical coverage and Net accessibility—have
opposition was denied balanced coverage in main-
yet to be approved. Nevertheless, internet and mo-
stream media, it relied on alternative media such as
bile subscriptions are increasing rapidly due to fall-
the Internet, blogs, SMS, mailing lists, Listservs, and
ing costs and the novelty of enjoying new alternative
YouTube to communicate its campaign messages to
ways to connect with people.
the public.
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 12 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 13 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER
References
INTERVIEW
Growth Rate of Mobile Phone Usage in Malaysia, Koh Yun
Sing and Ow Siew Hock, http://eprints.um.edu.my/790/1/115-
118_%287-29%29.pdf
with
‘.my’ Malaysia, Musa Abu Hassan and Siti Zobidah Omar,
Digital Review of Asia Pacific 2009–2010, http://www.digital-
Kan Yuanyong,
review.org/uploads/files/pdf/2009-2010/chap-29_malaysia.pdf
Founder of
Siam Intelligence
Malaysia Internet Usage Stats and Marketing Report, as of
June 2009, http://www.internetworldstats.com/asia/my.htm
About
Mr. Kan Yuanyong
Mr. Kan Yuanyong is founder and Director of Siam Intelligence
Unit (http://www.siamintelligence.com), an alternative think
tank and research service on various social, environment,
business and economic issues. He was also a co-developer of
the Thailand Political Base website (http://www.politicalbase.
in.th), funded by The Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF)
and Thai RuralNet (http://www.trnlab.org). Mr Kan was
selected by The Friedrich Naumann Foundation to represent
Thailand in seminars in Strategic Planning 2009 and New
Public Management 2009, held at the International Academy
for Leadership, Germany. Formerly at the National Electronics
and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC), Thailand, he
currently serves as a committee member for the Thai Netizen
Network (http://www.thainetizen.org).
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER 14 ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS
media. Then the movement gained massive momen- such as TV campaigns, roadshows and home visits.
tum as it threw its support behind efforts to expel the Digital media are playing an increasingly strong and
former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. This and effective role in monitoring politicians and public of-
similar online fora saw a huge influx of users. Some ficials. Still largely free from the chains of censorship,
news companies were able to ride this digital band- they are becoming an essential component of a gov-
wagon early and successfully- a notable example ernance system.
being Thailand’s Manager Group, which transformed
itself from a traditional newspaper publisher to a Another interesting trend is that the realm of digital
leading online news network. The key factors behind politics of course transcends physical borders. An
its success are the speedy and real-time update of example is a web board in which most users are
news and the controversial and often sensational Cambodian. But on the hot topic of the Cambodia-
content that draws the reader’s attention. Thailand conflict over the Temple of Preah Vihear,
Thai participants also participate in the debate and
At the regional level, the leader in digital politics is express their opinions in English.
Malaysiakini. Because of Malaysia’s strict censorship
over the broadcast and print media, people saw on-
line media as a freer and more promisingly alterna- What is the flipside of
tive. Malaysiakini is a product of such a shift, and has
grown into what is arguably the best-known online
these trends?
news website in Southeast Asia. Since the begin-
ning, Malaysiakini presented itself as an alternative Online political participation and mobilization so far
source of news and truth, often covering controver- seems in general to be limited to the middle and up-
sial issues and viewpoints considered taboo by main- per classes in big cities. Internet connectivity is still
stream media. Its readership continues to increase, expensive in most countries in this region, so only the
even after the website started charging membership relatively affluent are able to participate in this trend.
fees to view its content. Following in Malaysiakini’s The problems of social and urban-rural inequity are
footsteps, similar websites focusing on political and quite evident when it comes to digital politics. As sev-
social issues have sprung up in other countries in eral countries in this region continue to tackle issues
Southeast Asia, including Prachatai in Thailand. of inequality and social justice, the limited circle and
disproportionate demographic of digital politics may
polarize these societies even further. I see an impor-
What do you see as the tant role for the State in promoting digital connectivity
most important emerging to reduce the digital divide, to empower more people
to participate directly in political activities in the digital
trends in digital politics space.
in this region? We also see across the region the state’s increasing
Across Southeast Asia, information flow is becoming control over the digital space, with more and more
more dynamic, and citizens’ roles are changing fast. legislation passed to allow internet censorship, usual-
Today we are seeing a much higher level of two-way ly citing national security and social order as grounds
communication between media and their audiences. for censorship. Cyber-freedom advocates consider
Readers, viewers and listeners are no longer content such censorship as unnecessary and counterpro-
to sit back and passively consume – they now also ductive. I personally support freedom of expression
want to generate and exchange their own informa- as long as it does not violate other people’s rights.
tion. The modus operandi of political exchange and However, some societies may need more time to de-
mobilization is shifting from online web boards, to for- velop a culture that allows people to freely debate ta-
warded emails, to social-network sites. Smartphones boo topics. Finally, the cultural and ethical norms that
are increasingly used not just for clunky SMS mes- serve to moderate our behaviour in the real world are
saging, but also to chat real-time as in the case of the often forgotten in the freewheeling online world, and
Blackberry, and to communicate via Facebook and so we also need to develop a greater sense of re-
Twitter to instantaneously exchange political news sponsibility- or ‘cyber-ethics’ among internet users.
and views. People can express their ideas more hon-
estly, sometimes anonymously. It has also become
easier to mobilize people connected virtually than
through prohibitively expensive traditional means
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
DIGITAL POLITICS - ISSUE 4 15 TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER
TREND TOOLS
Bibliometrics
A Tool for Foresight
By
Dr. Alisa Kongthon,
National Electronics
and Computer Technology Graph layout of the MIT social web.
Analyzed by bibliometrics method
Center (NECTEC) Source: http://www10.org/program/society/yawyl/
YouAreWhatYouLink.htm
The use of bibliometrics —the number of research co-word analysis uses the co-occurrence of
papers published and how often they are cited— keywords in publications on a given subject to
uses statistics and quantitative analysis to describe establish relationships among documents.
patterns of publication within any given field. Biblio-
metrics measures the output of science by generat- Examples of bibliometric studies in Southeast Asia
ing quantitative data that can be used to evaluate the include technology trends and forecasts of RFID by a
influence of emerging technologies or issues, and is historical review and bibliometric analysis from 1991
a versatile tool which can contribute to foresight ex- to 2005 conducted by the National Electronic and
ercises such as scenario planning. Computer Technology Center (NECTEC), Thailand,
and Mapping of Science and Technology Knowledge
Bibliometric studies are grounded in three important Productivity in Malaysia since 2003, by the Malay-
laws: Lotka’s law of scientific productivity; Bradford’s sian Agency for Science and Technology Information
law of scatter, and Zipf’s law of word occurrence. (MASTIC),
These laws provide the basis for the three main indi-
cators used in bibliometric studies: Bibliometrics has come of age in the age of the inter-
net, with its wealth of content, and especially in the
• Publication count: total number of scien- emergence of powerful search tools. The emerging
tific publications or patents published by re- field of webmetrics, or cybermetrics, applies biblio-
searchers in a specified field. Publication or metric techniques to the worldwide web, mapping
patent counts are most useful for providing and ranking sites according to the intensity of their
an estimate of research interest, and total hyperlinks to other sites.
research output;
• Citations and impact factor: Number of
citations is a useful proxy for the scientific and Further reading:
even the social impact of research. The more Asgari, B., and Wong, C. H. (2007) Depicting the Technology
significant the work, the more it is cited; and Economic Development of Modern Malaysia, Asian Jour-
• Co-citation and co-word analysis: is used nal of Technology Innovation Volume 15, Issue 1 2007.
to measure linkages among publications,
Daim, T. U., Ruedaa, G., Martina, H., and Gerdsria, P. (2006)
including patents. Co-citation and co-word Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Is-
indicators can be combined with publication sue 8, October 2006, pp. 981-1012
and citation counts to build multifaceted
representations of research fields, the MASTIC (2003), “Science and Technology Knowledge Pro-
ductivity in Malaysia”, Bibliometric Study 2003, Putrajaya: Ma-
linkages among them, and the actors who
laysian Science and Technology Information Center.
are shaping them. Co-citation analysis can
help us monitor how different sub-domains of http://etd.gatech.edu/
science change and evolve over time, whilst
Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation.
Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.
Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana
Prof. Ubonrat Siriyuvasak
Ms. Poomjit Sirawongprasert
Dr. Alisa Kongthon
Writers / Information Specialist
Worapol
Paiboonbudsrakum
Project co-ordinator Trendnovation
William Wyn Ellis
Southeast
Chief Editor Newsletter
is published by
Pinchathana Atthiwatthana
Graphic Designer
Noviscape Consulting Group (NCG)
www.noviscape.com
Regional Horizon / Environment -
Scanning (HS/ES)
and trend monitoring for issues
relevant to people, life, and
Contact us
regional transformation across the
contact@trendsoutheast.org
Southeast Asian region.
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