February 2014 Weber ET AL.

Objective Estimation of the Radius of the Outermost

Closed Isobar in Tropical Cyclones
Harry C. Weber1, Charlie C. F. Lok2, Noel E. Davidson2,*, and Yi Xiao2
Fachhochschule des Bundes für öffentliche Verwaltung, Fachbereich Wetterdienst,
1

Fürstenfeldbruck, Germany
2
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, A partnership between the Australian
Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia

ABSTRACT

Increased understanding of the importance of TC structure in dynamical, climatological and prediction studies
makes determination of TC size important. A new algorithm for the objective estimation of the radius of outer-
most closed isobar (roci) has been developed. The new method uses storm position and global analyses of mean
sea level pressure to compute a mean (axisymmetric) roci. This radius can be used, together with the central pres-
sure, for the construction of a synthetic vortex that is initialized in a numerical prediction model. The method
also has important applications in dynamical and climatological studies of TC intensity, size and structure. The
algorithm is robust and capable of estimating roci, even in the case of a weak system that may not have a closed
isobar in the global analysis. The values produced by the new method are shown to be more consistent than the
corresponding operational estimates which are subjective and produced under strong time constraints. Statistical
comparison between subjective and objective estimates gives a mean absolute difference of 110 km, which giv-
en the difficulty in making a subjective estimate, is satisfactory. In addition, even though limitations exist with
the estimates of vortex parameters like the radius to gales (r34), comparison with estimates from an extended
best track data set provides independent evaluation of the scheme. Mean absolute difference for r34 for around
3200 cases is near 80 km, even though the best track estimates are subjective and the objective r34 is estimated
only from storm central pressure and the objective roci. This validation suggests that the algorithm can be used to
obtain useful size estimates of TCs.
Keywords: tropical cyclone, size, estimation

1. Introduction Numerical models used for the prediction of tropical

In general terms the structure of any TC vortex can
be defined by the set of parameters: central pressure cp,
maximum wind vm, radius of maximum wind rm, radius to
gales r34, radius of outer closed isobar roci. This is based on
a slightly revised version of the definitions suggested by
Merrill (1984). The first three parameters define the struc-
ture of the inner-core circulation and are representative of
its intensity and inner-core structure. roci defines the outer
structure and radial extent of the circulation. r 34 defines
the region in between, and represents the strength of the
system.
Corresponding author address: Dr. Noel Davidson, CAWCR, Bureau of
Meteorology, P.O. Box 1289, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia. E-mail:
n.davidson@bom.gov.au
cyclones face the challenge of forecasting storms on the
basis of insufficient operational knowledge of the dynamic
and thermodynamic structure of storms. Without reconnais-
sance (e.g., Zou and Xiao, 2000), and sometimes even with
reconnaissance, defining the structure of TCs is difficult.
Therefore, operational forecasters, based on their experi-
ence with TC analysis and skill with interpretation of satel-
lite imagery, routinely provide numerical forecast systems
with estimates of the size and intensity of storms. The ini-
tialization procedures of many numerical models use these
size and intensity estimates for the construction of three-
dimensional vortices (e.g. Kurihara et al. 1995, Davidson
and Weber, 2000). These should be as realistic as possible
to guarantee forecasts of acceptable quality. However, the
time constraints under which forecasters operate and the

DOI: 10.6057/2014TCRR01.01
2 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
subjectivity and difficulty in the application of ill-defined
quantities often make it challenging to produce informa-
tion on storm size and intensity in a consistent and accurate
way, suitable for the initialization of numerical models.
This makes objective methods more and more desirable.
Estimating vortex structure parameters is very difficult,
since some parameters, like roci, are not well-defined. For
example, for TCs embedded in a monsoon trough, it is dif-
ficult to estimate where the monsoon westerlies or trade
easterlies end and the TC circulation begins. In addition
there are frequently large scale asymmetries in TCs, as
neighbouring weather systems impinge on the circulation.
It thus may be more desirable to obtain roci from global
analyses which are also objective and have seen all conven-
tional observations normally used by forecasters in estimat-
ing storm structure. We will show examples where large
differences between subjective and objective estimates
exist and where the latter seem more valid. This study pres-
ents an objective method for the operational estimation of
roci, which is used as one parameter for the construction of
synthetic vortices during the initialization of the numerical
prediction model, ACCESS-TC (the TC version of the Aus-
tralian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator,
ACCESS, Davidson et al. 2014) of the Australian Bureau
of Meteorology (BoM).
The vortex parameters characterizing a given storm
can be grouped into two general types, intensity and size.
1. The first type consists of two parameters, the maximum
wind speed vm and the central pressure pc. The latter quan-
tity lacks some significance without knowledge of the envi-
ronmental pressure penv, which, together with pc, defines the
pressure deficit dpc = pc - penv and therewith the intensity
of the storm in question. In the presence of large and me-
soscale systems in the vicinity of a storm, the environmen-
tal pressure is as difficult to estimate as the central pressure
itself, which has to be estimated using for example the
empirical Dvorak technique (Dvorak 1975, 1984). Mean
sea level pressure (MSLP) analyses from global numerical
models cannot be used to estimate pc. They normally do
not contain realistic storm structures, but rather misplaced
and weaker vortices, although some improvements in re-
cent years have resulted from improved data assimilation
and increases in model resolution (e.g., Heming, 2009). A
direct estimate of maximum wind speed from for example,
cloud drift wind data is also difficult and depends on the
availability of such data. In practice, the Dvorak technique
combined with a pressure-wind relationship are used to
estimate vm and pc. Pressure-wind relationships tend to be
empirical and ocean-basin dependent (cf. Knaff and Zehr
2007), and can sometimes also require an estimation of roci
(and poci: pressure of the outer closed isobar) (e.g., Court-
ney and Knaff, 2009). 2. The second type of vortex param-
eter, storm size, consists of three parameters: the radius of
maximum wind speed rm, the radius of 34-kt wind speed
r34, and the radius of the outermost closed isobar roci. More
Volume 3, No. 1
recently, radii of 50- and 64-kt wind speed r50 and r64 have
been added to tropical cyclone advisories. Of the three
parameters, rm, r34, and roci, critical to defining storm struc-
ture and hence forecast performance, only r34 is a true size
parameter as it is linked to a defined value of wind speed.
However, its determination again depends on the availabil-
ity and accuracy of surface observations, cloud drift wind
data and scatterometer measurements (Knaff et al. 2011)
from geostationary or polar-orbiting satellites, which do
not always sample the storm well enough or with sufficient
temporal frequency. Moreover, a large number of tropical
depressions or developing systems have maximum wind
speeds lower than 34 kt or 17.5 m s-1, so that an estimate of
r34 in these cases provides no useful information on storm
size or structure. The radius of maximum wind rm, used to-
gether with vm in most parameteric wind approaches during
the initialization of tropical cyclones in numerical models
(e.g., Ma et al. 2012), is not a size parameter because there
exists no known relationship between the eye size of a
tropical cyclone and its total horizontal extent. However
we wish to acknowledge that rm is a size parameter for the
inner, but not the outer circulation. For the same reason,
r50 and r64 cannot be regarded as vortex size parameters,
although they are linked to a defined wind velocity. Hence,
the only remaining parameter that approximately represents
overall storm size and that is relatively easy to extract from
global numerical analyses, irrespective of the strength of
the system or the availability of satellite data, is roci. The
assumption is that the global MSLP-field at large radii
generally well represents the outer circulation of any given
storm. By definition, roci represents a mean radius of the
outermost closed isobar poci, which in operational practice
is often given as poci = penv - 1hPa. Again, roci is not a size
parameter in the strict sense, because the wind speed voci at
this radius is not constant as for example in the case of r34
(cf. the values of voci of the storm cases in Figs. 4-7). How-
ever TCs are often embedded in larger scale circulations
(e.g., the monsoon trough) and thus we may not necessarily
expect that the wind speed at outer radii will be constant.
An additional motivation for this study is the need to
develop an extended best track data set for the Australian
region, which besides including location, central pres-
sure and maximum wind estimates, will also include best
estimates of vortex structure parameters, rm, r34 and roci.
Such comprehensive data sets, which need to be developed
with objective methods, is required for (i) climatological
studies of TC behaviour, and (ii) dynamical studies of TC
vortex structure in the Australian region. Although there
are clearly limitations in the construction of such a data
set, the methods described herein provide an opportunity
to make interesting first-cut estimates of TC structures in
the Australian Region. Recently it has come to our atten-
tion that Knaff et al. (2013) have developed an objective
satellite-based TC size climatology. We hope to rather soon
compare our results with those from this study.
February 2014 Weber ET AL.
In an effort to objectify the estimation of the simplest
possible “size” parameter found in tropical systems, the
current study presents an algorithm for the objective de-
termination of roci from global numerical MSLP-fields.
The algorithm was initially developed using 276 cases of
tropical depressions and storms over the Australian region.
As will be shown, there are several possible refinements to
a natural objective estimation of roci, depending, amongst
other things, on the parameteric wind model used later to
construct the radial structure of a realistic axisymmetric
vortex. The next sections are organised as follows: (a) the
data sets used for the development of the algorithm are
presented, (b) the basic algorithm for the estimation of roci
and its possible refinements, are described, (c) the general
behaviour of the algorithm is illustrated on some selected
cases, (d) statistical evaluation against available best track
data sets is presented, (e) a single case study on the po-
tential impact of initial structure on TC initialization and
prediction is shown, and (f) some concluding remarks are
made. As will be illustrated, roci is not a particularly well-
defined quantity and there are not definitive values to check
the objective estimates against. In what follows we will
validate our objective estimates by comparison against sub-
jective estimates, but we wish to emphasize that these latter
estimates also likely contain errors. Since roci is difficult
to define for subjective derivation, clear guidelines have
not been formulated to improve its subjective estimation.
Thus subjectivity plays a significant role in its estimation.
We will illustrate that it may be much easier to estimate
its value objectively. What we are aiming for are objective
estimates that in the mean are consistent and reproducible
and verify within reasonable error bars (of the order of 100
km) against subjective estimates. We will show (a) some
cases where operational estimates seem inconsistent with
the analyses, and (b) that the objective method generally
provides more consistent estimates.
The vortex initialization procedure referred to herein,
which builds storm structure based on estimates of pc and
roci, is described in Davidson et al. (2014) and forms the ba-
sis of the vortex specification method used in ACCESS-TC.
The method enables physically-consistent construction of
the complete vortex parameter set (pc, vm, rm, r34, roci) from
one size and one intensity parameter. In the present study,
the parameter set computed from the estimates of roci and
pc is then compared with the equivalent set from extended
best track data sets.
2. Data sets
The data sets used to develop the algorithm for the ob-
jective estimation of the radius of outermost closed isobar
in tropical depressions and storms initially consisted of
276 MSLP-analyses provided by the then operational
global model of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
The data are given on a rectangular grid in longitude and
latitude with 1.5° horizontal resolution. This global system
3
has evolved over the years with a consequent increase in
analysis quality. The current system (ACCESS-G, Puri et
al. 2013) which utilizes 4-dimensional variational assimila-
tion, is producing global forecasts which are competitive
with current wold’s-best practice. We thus believe that the
analyses of surface pressure can be used with confidence
to obtain estimates of roci. With access to these new real-
time data sets and the inclusion of ECMWF analyses (see
below), the system has been tested for the period 1979 –
2012 on over 3000 analyses for storms over the Australian
region, northwest Pacific, east Pacific and north Atlantic.
In addition to the global MSLP analyses, the correspond-
ing operational TC advisories of the Australian Bureau
of Meteorology are used, providing information on storm
names, centre locations at analysis time, t0, and at 6 and 12
h earlier, operationally-estimated radii of outermost closed
isobar, and central pressures.
In addition to the development set above, a further 207
tropical cyclones from the North Atlantic and Northeast
Pacific have been analysed to evaluate the algorithm. Storm
structure parameters are provided from the extended best
track (EXBT) dataset described in Demuth et al. (2006)
and available on the Internet (http://rammb.cira.colostate.
edu/research/tropical_cyclones/tc_extended_best_track_
dataset/). MSLP-analyses are obtained from the ERA-I data
set: ECMWF Interim reanalysis (Dee et al. 2011). The
EXBT data set contains all the required estimates of storm
structure, including roci. This data set is used to validate the
algorithm described herein, although it should be noted
again that this so-called best track data set contains track
and intensity from NHC’s final best track, but most of the
other parameters are not. The wind radii are best track
values beginning in 2004, but the roci, poci, rm are not qual-
ity controlled by NHC at the end of each season. These are
simply a copy of the operational estimates of those param-
eters. Further the data set is based on subjective estimates
and therefore not without errors. JTWC (Joint Typhoon
Warning Centre) advisories (Sampson and Schrader, 2000)
are used for Northwest Pacific and Southern Hemisphere
TCs and also in NWP experiments to illustrate the
sensitivity of prediction to initial vortex structure using
ACCESS-TC.
3. Objective estimation of the radius of outermost
closed isobar
a. Current procedure (Option 31)
The global MSLP analysis of Cyclone Atu (2011) north
of Nksew Zealand, shown in Fig. 1, is used to illustrate the
procedure to objectively estimate roci. The red circle in Fig.
1 (upper panel) shows the objective estimate of roci obtained
using the procedure described below. The black circle
shows the subjective estimate from the TC-advisory. In this
case, the objective estimate seems more consistent with the
1
Note that the numbering of the procedures described here follows that
of the program in operational use.
4 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Volume 3, No. 1

Fig. 1. Upper panel: ERA Interim mean sea level pressure field for South Pacific Cyclone Atu at 12 UTC, 23
February 2011. Shown is a 30°×30° sector. The contour interval is 1 hPa. Note that the global field is interpolated to
a finer grid for plotting of contour lines. The black and red circles represent the operational advisory and objective
estimates of roci. The TC centre from the advisory and the objective “mass-centre” are marked with a TC symbol
and cross respectively. Lower panel: Illustrative view of the star pattern of the 576 radial legs used by the algorithm,
showing every 8th radial leg and every 60th radial point.
February 2014 Weber ET AL. 5

Fig. 2. As in Fig. 1 upper, but for South Pacific Cyclone Zelia at 00UTC, 17 January 2011. Upper: Original MSLP
field. Lower: MSLP field with large circulation to the southwest removed.
6 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Volume 3, No. 1

Fig. 3. As Fig. 1 upper, but for North Atlantic Hurricane Hortense at 00UTC, 05 (upper) and 07 (lower) September
1996. The EXBT dataset is used to plot the best track estimates. The MSLP field is from ERA-Interim.
February 2014 Weber ET AL.
MSLP analysis. After determination of the grid point where
the MSLP is a minimum (with the aid of the operational
storm centre estimate at analysis time t 0 of the TC-
advisory), a downhill method (Bach 1969, cf. the Appendix
in Davidson and Weber 2000 for a description of this
method) is applied together with a birational interpolation
method (Späth 1991) to obtain the MSLP minimum
between grid points with greater accuracy. Henceforth,
this centre is referred to as the “analysis centre”. In the
very unlikely event that no MSLP minimum is found
(approximately 7% of cases), the algorithm stops execution
and the operational estimate of roci is used by the vortex
construction method. We expect that the fraction of failures
will decrease as the resolution of global systems and
their available archives increases. If the distance between
the TC-advisory centre at t 0 from the MSLP-minimum
located via the downhill method is smaller than 500 km, it
is assumed that the storm in question has been identified
and the procedure described below is carried out using the
centre located by the downhill method. A threshold value
of 500 km is necessary because storm centres in the global
data fields are normally misplaced relative to the true
positions as provided by the TC-advisories. Although this
has improved in recent times.
Once the downhill method has located the vortex centre
in the global MSLP-field, all closed isobars are computed
using a star pattern of 576 radial legs about the analysed
vortex centre (see Fig. 1, lower panel). The large number
of radial legs is needed because the isobars may be
considerably distorted, as shown for example by the 1007-
hPa isobar in Fig. 1 upper; a smaller number of radial legs
may misinterpret open isobars as being closed. Each leg
is defined out to a radius of 1500 km, assuming that roci
does not exceed this limit. On each of the 576 radial legs,
the global MSLP-field is interpolated to 3001 equidistant
radial points (corresponding with a radial grid size of 0.5
km), giving the MSLP distribution as a function of radius
on each leg. In the next step, all integer isobar values (at
intervals of 1 hPa) and their corresponding radii from the
analysed vortex centre are computed on each leg. An isobar
is defined as being closed if its numerical value exists on
all 576 radial legs.
If the centre located by the downhill method is farther
than 500 km from the TC-advisory centre at t0, the axisym-
metric vortex centred at this location is assumed to be a
neighbouring vortex and not the TC being processed. It is
eliminated from the MSLP field via an azimuthal Fourier
analysis, assuming that it represents a different system
disguising the structure of the storm in question. Cases
like this may occur if the storm in question is small and
represented as a rather weak system in the global data field.
An example is shown in Fig. 2 for the case of the southern-
hemisphere Cyclone Zelia in 2011: a larger-scale system is
located to the southwest of Zelia. Objective estimation of
the roci is possible only if the larger-scale system is elimi-
7
nated from the MSLP field, as shown in the bottom panel of
Fig. 2. As before, the red (black) circles in the upper panels
of Fig. 2 show the objective (subjective) estimate of roci.
Once all closed isobars have been located, the geometri-
cal centre of each closed isobar is computed2. Moreover,
the geometrical centre of the innermost closed isobar is
taken as the new vortex centre and the above procedure to
compute all closed isobars is repeated with this centre. The
reason for this is that the geometrical centre represents the
storm centre in the global analysis more accurately than
the analysed centre, which is computed via the downhill
method in combination with birational interpolation. In the
following parts of the algorithm, all calculations are carried
out relative to this new centre, henceforth called the “mass-
centre” of the vortex.
If more than one closed isobar has been detected, the
mean radial distances of all isobars from the mass centre
of the innermost closed isobar are computed via averaging
over all radial legs to produce the “axisymmetric” radius of
each closed isobar. In the current procedure, the mean ra-
dius of the outermost closed isobar defines roci. Refinements
to this procedure are addressed in the next sub-section.
If no closed isobar is found, which may happen in the
cases of tropical depressions or very weak tropical storms
such as Hortense 1996 over the North Atlantic, shown in
the lower panel of Fig. 3, an iterative approach to deter-
mine the size of the storm is applied. First, the mean radius
and the standard deviation from this mean are computed
for the first (innermost) non-closed isobar. Then, all radial
legs with radii of this isobar that have radial distances from
the analysis centre larger than the sum of the mean radius
and its standard deviation are discarded from the next itera-
tive step. The procedure described above is repeated with
a lesser and lesser number of participating radial legs until
convergence toward a final radius, defining roci, is reached.
The same iterative approach is applied if the mean radius of
the outermost closed isobar roci computed earlier is smaller
than a threshold value of 70 km. One example of such a
case is shown in the upper panel of Fig. 3, where an origi-
nal roci of 11 km was computed. In this case the objective
and subjective estimates seem quite consistent.
In the original setup of the algorithm, every global
MSLP-analysis was used separately without taking into ac-
count the time development of a storm in question. In a few
cases, this led to some relatively large jumps in roci from
one analysis time to the next. Although quite frequently the
operationally-provided values of roci of the TC-advisories
include such jumps as well, to preserve time continuity,
they are limited in the current objective algorithm. As a
consequence, the time development of roci is included in the
algorithm by an empirical threshold value of a maximum
allowed jump in roci of 35% of the roci from the preceding
analysis time over a period of 12 hours, if the 12-hour cen-
2
The geometrical centre of a closed isobar is the mean latitude/longitude
of all 576 points defining this isobar on the radial legs.
8 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
tre shift of the storm in question is less than 7° in latitude/
longitude. If roci is either larger or smaller by this percent-
age than roci at an earlier analysis time, the current poci is ad-
justed to the next isobar that has a roci differing from the old
roci by less than the above threshold value of relative differ-
ence. If the previously analysed value of roci is older than 12
hours or if the storm has travelled over a distance greater
than 7° in latitude/longitude during the last 12 hours, the
value of roci remains unchanged.
In very few cases, such as if the algorithm to locate
the MSLP-minimum fails or if the MSLP-minimum after
elimination of a secondary axisymmetric system in the
vicinity of the storm in question is farther away from the
TC-advisory centre than the threshold value of 500 km, the
algorithm terminates execution and the operational roci of
the TC-advisory is used for vortex construction.
b. Alternative procedures
In the current method, roci is defined as the mean radius
of the outermost closed isobar in the global MSLP field.
However, other approaches are possible as well and will be
addressed in this sub-section.
The first alternative method (Option 1, cf. Footnote 1)
uses three parameters extracted from the MSLP field to
compute the threshold values described below. Note that
the numerical values of these threshold quantities have
been computed via a procedure of optimization using all
storm cases via minimization relative to subjective roci esti-
mates of the authors of the present study. (1) As discussed
in the last section, the mass centre of each closed isobar is
computed. If a coherent vortex exists, these mass centres
should not differ much from the mass centre of the inner-
most closed isobar. Hence, if the mass centre of an outer
closed isobar differs from the corresponding mass centre
of the innermost closed isobar by more than the threshold
value of 97 km, the next inner closed isobar defines the out-
ermost closed isobar and therewith roci of the storm in ques-
tion; (2) the ellipticity of a closed isobar (e.g. the degree of
deviation of a closed isobar from a circle or the percentage
where the isobar has a concave curvature relative to the
percentage where it has a convex curvature, seen from the
mass centre) is a measure for the existence of asymmetric
features in the vicinity of a given storm that either belong
to the storm itself or to other surrounding weather systems.
Hence, if the percentage of the concave parts of a given
closed isobar relative to that of the convex parts exceeds a
threshold value of 0.4, the next inner closed isobar defines
roci; and (3), a Fourier analysis is carried out to extract the
radial amplitude functions of the axisymmetric vortex and
the asymmetric component of azimuthal wavenumber one.
If the relation of the asymmetric and axisymmetric ampli-
tude at the radius of a given closed isobar exceeds a thresh-
old value of 0.5, the next inner closed isobar defines the roci
of the current storm. These three threshold values, applied
in the successive order discussed above, produce an alter-
Volume 3, No. 1
native objective estimate of roci. This alternative procedure
of course results in slightly smaller estimates of roci.
The second alternative method (Option 2, cf. Footnote
1) computes one single index of the weighted three param-
eters discussed above. The individual (relative) weights are
3 for the mass centre difference, 2 for the ellipticity and 2
for the quotient of the asymmetric and axisymmetric ampli-
tude at the radius of a given closed isobar. Again, an upper
threshold value of this index is computed using all cases by
minimization of the deviations of the objective values of roci
from the subjective ones estimated by the authors.
In the third alternative algorithm (Option 4, cf. Footnote
1), an azimuthal Fourier analysis is applied to the MSLP
field relative to the mass centre of the innermost closed
isobar to extract the axisymmetric MSLP distribution as
function of radius. The maximum radius used for the Fou-
rier analysis is 1500 km. The value of roci is defined as the
radius where the pressure difference of the axisymmetric
vortex is -1 hPa relative to the outermost integer pressure
value of the axisymmetric MSLP profile resulting from the
Fourier analysis.
In general, the values of roci computed via the first two al-
ternative methods (Options 1 and 2) are smaller than the roci
produced by the current algorithm (Option 3) described in
the last sub-section. In contrast to Options 1 and 2, the val-
ues of roci computed via the third alternative method (Option
4) are larger than those of Option 3. Tests with the numeri-
cal prediction model ACCESS-TC are underway to assess
the quality of each method and to find the optimum method
for the synthetic vortex used in the numerical prediction
model. Preliminary evaluation is encouraging as indicated
in the case study in Section 6. Results indicate a forecast
sensitivity to roci only in particular cases. Early experiments
suggest that Option 3 is slightly favoured for determining
TC vortex scale for initializing numerical TC forecasts,
although Option 1 may be more suitable for strong storms.
We are gradually building an archive of forecasts initialised
using Options 1 and 3. Results after further experimenta-
tion will be described at a later time.
4. Selected results from the algorithm
The current algorithm for the objective estimation has
proven to be robust and stable and has the capability to de-
termine the “size” of 93% of all TCs examined so far. How-
ever, the success or failure of the method depends on how
it performs operationally if the estimated roci is used for the
synthetic vortex implemented in the numerical prediction
model. For this reason, the values of roci, together with the
central pressure from the TC-advisory and the environmen-
tal pressure computed from the global ERA-I MSLP-field
have been used to construct synthetic vortex structures us-
ing the parameteric wind model used for vortex specifica-
tion in ACCESS-TC. Some results are shown in Figs. 4-7.
It should be noted that corresponding figures for the three
alternative algorithms are not shown here, because the cur-
February 2014 Weber ET AL. 9

Fig. 4. Time series of vortex parameters for Northwest Pacific Typhoon Sonca in September 2011, based on ERA
Interim dataset: poci in hPa (upper left), roci in km (upper right, dashed line marks the JTWC operational estimates), rm in
km (middle left), vm in m s-1 (middle right), dpc in hPa (lower left) and voci in m s-1 (lower right panel).
10 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Volume 3, No. 1

Fig. 5. As in Fig. 4, but for Typhoon Merbok in August 2011.

February 2014 Weber ET AL. 11

Fig. 6. As in Fig. 4, but for Typhoon Songda in May 2011.

12 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
rent method is the “natural” choice of algorithms, provided
the “storms” in the global MSLP-analyses represent reality
with any accuracy. The secondary algorithms have to be
tested semi-operationally if the current algorithm turns out
to produce results of lesser quality during the requested
semi-operational tests.
All figures mentioned above show poci, roci, rm, vm, dpc and
voci3 as functions of analysis time. An illustrative MSLP
analysis for each storm with objective and subjective es-
timates of roci is shown in Fig. 8. In the case of Typhoon
Sonca (Fig. 4), the values of poci vary between 1009 and
1014 hPa and the objective values of roci agree qualitatively
well with the corresponding operational estimates. The ra-
dius of maximum wind speed decreases during intensifica-
tion and increases near the end of its lifetime as the storm
starts to weaken. This result seems to indicate a correlation
between the values of rm and vm, however most of the other
cases analysed did not corroborate such a correlation. The
illustrative example in Fig. 8 (top left panel), shows that for
this relatively small storm, the objective and subjective es-
timates are in agreement with each other and are consistent
with the objective MSLP analysis.
For Typhoon Merbok (Fig. 5) the values of poci vary be-
tween 1006 and 1011 hPa. The “objective” values of roci
are generally larger than those of the TC-advisories. As in
the case of Typhoon Sonca shown in Fig. 4, rm becomes
smaller as the storm intensifies (middle panels of Fig. 5).
As expected, the pressure deficit increases in agreement
with the maximum wind speed. The wind speed at the outer
closed isobar in this case remains reasonably constant and
varies between 2.8 and 6.7 m s-1, which is not the rule but
rather an exception and which expresses the fact that roci is
not a well-defined size parameter for tropical cyclones. For
most of Merbok’s life, objective and subjective estimates of
roci are consistent. Differences occurred as the storm began
to undergo extratropical transition, when we might expect
its size to increase (Liu et al. 2013). An illustration of the
difference is shown in the top right panel of Fig.8. The
objective estimate seems more consistent with the MSLP
analysis. However we also note that TCs are regularly
embedded in a large scale monsoon trough or monsoon
gyre, and thus we might expect that the mean wind over
the outer radii of the storm may vary depending on the
large scale environment in which it is embedded. This is
also somewhat illustrated in the case of Typhoon Songda
shown in Fig. 6, where voci varies between 3 and 10 m s-1,
independent of the development of the maximum wind
speed and/or the pressure deficit. Furthermore, in this case
the values of rm seem to be independent of maximum wind
speed (as in most cases investigated). Note that poci as well
as roci undergo undulations of 1-2 hPa and 100 km, respec-
tively. These cannot be avoided and are a consequence of
3
Note that for estimated values of r oci, p oci and p c, all other storm
parameters can be estimated using the parameteric wind model mentioned
in Section 1 and discussed in detail in Davidson et al. (2014).
Volume 3, No. 1
the independence of successive global analyses and/or pos-
sibly the diurnal and natural variation of the pressure field
during a storm’s life cycle, even over the ocean regions
adjoining land areas. For Songda, and after examination of
the MSLP-analyses, it seems that the objective estimates
may be somewhat more realistic than those from the TC
advisories, specifically because in the operational estimates
there can be found rather long periods of time where roci
changes very little or not at all, probably as a result of the
time pressures under which the operational estimates are
made. There sometimes appears to be a reluctance in the
subjective estimates to make roci too large, and a tendency
to maintain persistence regularly around 400km. The ob-
jective estimates seem somewhat more consistent with the
MSLP analyses (e.g., Fig. 8, lower left panel). Based on
our experience with TC initialization and prediction, for
forecasts of storms of moderate size (roci around 400km),
there is a modest sensitivity to errors of this magnitude (cf.
Section 6).
A problematic storm with regard to the estimation of
roci is TC Laurence shown in Fig. 7. The central pressure
estimates from the TC-advisories indicate two periods of
intensification during its lifetime, expressed by the pres-
sure deficit and the maximum wind speed shown in the
lower left panel and middle right panel of Fig. 7. During
the whole period, the values of poci do not change very
much, 2-3 hPa during 6-hourly intervals. The values of
voci increase during the first period of intensification as
a consequence of the strong decrease of roci, showing a
storm that contracts in size during its intensification. This
result indicates also that roci as a size parameter cannot be
the sole dominant parameter for the radial structure of the
vortex, because for high values of vm and small values of
roci, voci adjusts to accordingly higher values. However, the
large jump in roci during the first period of intensification
of Laurence cannot be avoided and is seen as a problem
of the objective algorithm, even if the subjective estimates
show similar but smaller jumps as well. The jumps in roci
show that the objective method cannot be perfect as a con-
sequence of the independence of successive global MSLP-
analyses. On the other hand, the operational estimates of
roci, shown in the upper right panel of Fig. 7, change very
little with time and remain quite small, which seems to be
very unlikely in view of the large changes in intensity of
Laurence during the corresponding periods. Based on mean
best track estimates, r34 and roci are larger for strong storms
(see later discussion). For individual cases, this may not
be true. The illustrative MSLP analysis (Fig. 8, lower right
panel) indicates that the objective estimates are consistent
with the MSLP analysis. In this unique case it may be that
the vortex specification is not able to adequately define the
vortex structure. Being a case that may not fit the general
rules, it is advised that TC Laurence should be used during
the semi-operational tests of the algorithm. As indicated by
an anonymous Reviewer, it is also possible that Laurence’s
February 2014 Weber ET AL. 13

Fig. 7. As in Fig. 4, but for TC Laurence in December 2009. Dashed line in the upper right plot represents
operational estimates from the Bureau of Meteorology.
14 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Volume 3, No. 1

Fig. 8. As in Fig. 3, but for Typhoon Sonca at 00UTC, 19 September 2011 (upper left); Typhoon Merbok at 12UTC,
08 August 2011 (upper right); Typhoon Songda at 00UTC, 25 May 2011 (lower left); and TC Laurence at 00UTC, 18
December 2009 (lower right).

structure was influenced by its near-coastal track, crossing
onto land and then re-emerging. It remains unclear how
TC structure, and in particular size, changes when storms
make landfall and occasionally re-emerge back over the
ocean. Seemingly physically-reasonable arguments can be
mounted for storms to increase or decrease in size as they
cross coastlines.
5. Statistical evaluation against available extended
best track data sets.
The objective algorithm has also been compared against
the EXBT dataset to ensure it is generally consistent with
operational experience. These best tracks are valuable, but
have limitations in that (i) estimates generally have been
made in real-time, although since 2004, the EXBT dataset
includes AMSU-based wind radii estimates, (ii) they are
subjective, and hence dependent on the skill of the analyst,
and (iii) do not contain any dynamical constraints on an
atmospheric vortex (e.g., gradient balance, finite angular
momentum, inertial stability) nor cross-checking of storm
parameters, which are generally estimated independent of
each other. Notwithstanding these limitations, we think
it is valuable to compare the objective algorithms against
subjective estimates, and particularly for a variable where
we might expect the estimates to be of larger scale and to
contain some very useful information. We thus not only
February 2014 Weber ET AL. 15

Table 1. Statistical comparison between objective and EXBT estimates for three vortex parametersfor the North Atlantic basin. Units
are km. Mean absolute differences and biases (in brackets) are shown for each option.
Radii Counts EXBT mean Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4
roci 2251 364.7 110.3 (-90.7) 106.4 (-83.8) 112.5 (3.9) 203.7 (147.4)
r34 2035 198.7 75.9 (-44.6) 74.6 (-41.5) 80.5 (-5.5) 102.3 (47.8)
rm 2250 64.0 30.2 (-19.2) 30.1 (-18.3) 32.0 (-7.1) 38.3 (9.8)

Table 2. As Table 1 but for the Northeast Pacific basin.

Radii Counts EXBT mean Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4
roci 1818 320.6 101.1 (-75.0) 97.8 (-68.1) 102.7 (-6.2) 202.6 (140.1)
r34 1295 126.7 42.3 (-15.1) 43.6 (18.8) 60.8 (43.7) 103.5 (92.8)
rm 1817 48.1 20.5 (0.5) 21.0 (1.7) 25.5 (11.5) 41.6 (32.6)

compare roci estimates but also rm and r34 estimates. The
values of rm and r34 are computed from the synthetic vortex
as stated in the previous section (cf. also Footnote 3). Figure
9 shows statistical comparisons of roci, r34 and rm from the
EXBT dataset against objective algorithm Option 3 for the
North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins for the period
2004 to 2010. Tables 1 and 2 show the corresponding
statistical evaluations for roci using all options discussed
in Section 3. It is noteworthy and pleasing that generally
the objective estimates show as much variance in storm
structure as the best track estimates. Given that there are
limitations in both the objective and subjective estimates,
there is reasonable correspondence between estimates of all
three parameters obtained from the two sources. The Mean
Absolute Differences (MADs) of approximately 112 km
for roci, 80 km for r34 and 32 km for rm (22 km for categories
3 to 5) seem quite reasonable, and for r34 are about 20km
larger than the MADs reported in e.g. Kossin et al. (2007),
Mueller et al. (2006), even though the estimates here do not
use any satellite imagery and are completely objective. A
consistent difference appears to be the very large estimates
for some storms, mainly over the North Atlantic, of r34 and
rm in the best track data set, which are not reproduced by
the objective methods. It remains unclear if the outliers
are realistic or an outcome of the subjective estimation.
Examination of some of the cases suggests that there may
be quality control issues with some parameters in the best
track data. We have chosen to include these cases in our
evaluation even though they will adversely affect our com-
parative statistics. However it does illustrate the need for
first-guess objective estimation of some vortex parameters.
The MADs between TC intensity classifications differ only
by about 10 km (not shown), suggesting that the algorithm
is able to perform consistently for all intensities of storms.
In general but not in all cases, more intense storms tend to
have larger r34 and smaller rm. That is, intensity and size are
only weakly related.
The different algorithms were also evaluated. Results
are summarised in Tables 1 and 2. MADs for Options 1
and 2 are slightly smaller than for Option 3 but they also
show much larger negative biases, a characteristic we
would prefer to avoid. However it is impossible to know
the biases in the operational estimates, and thus Options 1
and 2 may still well represent the “true” roci for asymmetric
storms. Option 4 overestimates r oci by more than 150
km and thus cannot be recommended for operational
use. Semi-operational testing will be required to further
distinguish between the other three algorithms. We are in
the process of building up an archive of NWP experiments
using the various roci options. Results from these tests will
be documented at a later time.
It should be noted that even in the best track data set, roci
is a subjective estimate and based on relatively ill-defined
procedures. Its quality relies on the expertise of forecasters
or researchers and from time to time these subjective
estimates could be unrealistic. In addition, because of
differences in the observational coverage, there may be
regional differences in the quality of roci estimates. There
are likely to be cases when the MSLP analysis is poor. It
is nearly impossible to isolate and deal with these cases.
Figure 10 shows two examples of large disagreement
between the objective and subjective estimates and
illustrates the difficulties with subjective estimation.
In both cases, the objective r oci appears to be in better
agreement with the MSLP-analysis. In the upper panel, it
is difficult to know where the circulation associated with
TS Delta ends and the flow associated with the peripheral
ridge to the north, east and south of the storm commences.
The subjective, best-track estimate may be based on the
location of the zero pressure gradient to the west of the
storm center, and results in a roci estimate of about 700 km.
We believe this estimate may be too large. The objective
16 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Volume 3, No. 1

Fig. 9. Comparison of objective (Option 3) and EXBT estimates for roci (top), r34 (middle) and rm (bottom) for North
Atlantic (left) and Northeast Pacific (right). Data are for the period 2004 to 2010. Wind speeds in knots.
February 2014 Weber ET AL. 17

Fig. 10. As in Fig. 3, but North Atlantic Hurricane Delta at 18UTC, 27 November 2005 (upper); and Tropical
Storm Frances at 06UTC, 09 September 1998 (lower).
18 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Volume 3, No. 1

Fig. 11. Sensitivity of initialization (post 4D-VAR) to roci estimates using ACCESS-TC. Case study is for Northwest
Pacific Typhoon Utor in August 2013. Top left: Original ACCESS-G MSLP; Middle left:no vortex specification;
Middle right: JTWC advisory roci; Bottom left: objective roci option 1; and Bottom right: objective roci Option 3.
February 2014 Weber ET AL. 19

Fig. 12. Sensitivity of TC forecasts to roci estimates using ACCESS-TC. Case study is for Northwest Pacific
Typhoon Utor in July 2013. Predicated tracks (upper) and minimum central pressure time series (lower) based on no
vortex specification (green lines), JTWC advisory roci (blue lines), Option 1 objective roci (orange lines), and Option 3
objective roci (light blue lines). Observed positions and intensities (red lines) are from JTWC.

method appears to see this case as a TC embedded in a
larger scale trough and diagnoses a roci of approximately
350 km. This may be a slight under-estimation, but it
appears to be a reasonable estimate, given the MSLP
distribution. The example of Tropical Storm Frances (Fig.
10, lower panel) also indicates the difficulty in obtaining
the best roci. In this case the subjective roci appears to under-
estimate roci, since the cyclonically-curved isobars appear to
extend well beyond this radius. However the objective roci
may be somewhat too large. The high pressure regions over
the Mexico plateau, which might not be “real”, and affected
by the interpolation reduction of surface pressure to mean
sea level. This may amplify the pressure gradient and make
the TC circulation, diagnosed by the objective algorithm,
extend further out. Nonetheless, it may still be better than
the best track estimate, which seems to be extremely small
in this case.
The subjective estimates in these cases appear to be
somewhat erratic. Since r oci is difficult to define, clear
guidelines have not been formulated, and thus subjectivity
plays a significant role in the estimation. Overall, the prom-
ising statistical comparison suggest that the objective algo-
rithms have good skill in estimating roci.
6. Case study from ACCESS-TC
Testing of the objective r oci in the TC NWP system,
ACCESS-TC (Davidson et al. 2014), is continuing. A very
large number of forecasts will be tested to evaluate the
options for determining roci. We illustrate the importance
and potential impact of storm size and structure, here
20 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
implied by the estimated roci, on forecasts using a case
study for Typhoon Utor over the Northwest Pacific. Figure
11 shows the base ACCESS-G analysis of MSLP for base
time 12UTC, 12 August 2013, together with the post 4D-
VAR MSLP field with initialised TC circulations using
roci estimates from real-time, and objective estimates from
Options 1 and 3 described herein. Note that without the
vortex specification, the MSLP analysis contains a weak
and misplaced vortex. Note also that major asymmetries
are evident in the MSLP analysis. These have a quite
significant impact on r oci estimates, with, in this case,
Option 3 suggesting a large storm and Option 1, a much
smaller and possibly unrealistic size. These sizes are
consistent with the previous discussion. In addition,
Option 3 implants a vortex which (a) contains a reasonable
representation of the intense inner-core, and (b) merges
well with the analysed storm circulation beyond about
300km. The central pressure values after initialization
are shown in the upper left corner of each panel and are
respectively 1004, 962, 992 and 957 hPa using no vortex
specification, advisory roci, Option 1 and Option 3. Note
that the initialisation cannot maintain the estimated initial
intensity using the small structure obtained from Option 1.
In addition the pressure gradients at large radii are less than
that with no vortex specification: a situation which seems
incorrect and undesirable. Figure 12 shows the observed
and forecasts tracks and central pressures initialised with
the corresponding options. In this single case study, Option
3 produces improved track and intensity forecasts for the
first 48 hours compared with the other estimates. The case
study highlights the importance of creating an accurate
initial vortex structure for the prediction of storms. Further
testing is needed to obtain definitive conclusions on the
best settings for use in NWP. We currently favour Option
3. Indeed we have some other cases where Option 1 has
produced better forecasts. But there are generally more
cases, as illustrated here, when Option 3 performs best.
Early results indicate a forecast sensitivity to roci only in
particular cases and usually when there is a neighbouring
cyclonic circulation, as in Fig.11. Perhaps understandably,
the size influences the occurrence or not of an interaction.
This issue will be addressed in future work.
7. Concluding remarks
Increased understanding of the importance of TC
structure in dynamical, prediction and climatological
studies of TC behaviour makes objective determination
of TC size very important. The current study has shown
that it is possible to develop a robust objective algorithm
to estimate roci of a given storm in a consistent way and
even in cases where no closed isobar exists at all. As
the operational estimates provided in the TC-advisories
may occasionally fail, so may the objective method.
However, tests and visual analyses show that the failures
of the objective method are infrequent and the general
Volume 3, No. 1
behaviour of the objective algorithm seems to be more
consistent than that of the operational estimates. We have
demonstrated that the objective method provides values of
roci that are of comparable, possibly better (because more
consistent) quality than operational subjective estimates.
Comprehensive statistical comparisons suggest that
application of the technique on historical TC data sets
will provide good quality estimates of storm structure,
specifically if applied together with the parameteric wind
model, and have importance to climatological studies of TC
structure. It is also hoped that the use of the new prediction
system ACCESS (Puri et al. 2013) is able to eliminate the
infrequent failures and temporal jumps in the objectively-
estimated roci in comparison with the old global analyses
available so far. Ultimately, the quality of the new method
has to be proven by intensive semi-operational testing with
ACCESS-TC on as many cases as possible. Preliminary
results presented here indicate the importance of such
comprehensive testing.
Acknowledgements
The authors are sincerely grateful for expert comments
from Dr. Michael Foley, Joe Courtney and the anony-
mous Reviewers on an earlier version of the manuscript.
They clarified many points and improved the manuscript
greatly. This research was partially supported by the Na-
tional Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) and
the US Office of Naval Research (ONR) under Award No.:
N000141010139.
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