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Global Cooling In The Coming Decades

A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now

Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades
By Kenneth Richard on 10. April 2017

Modern Solar Grand Maximum Ends

‘Little Ice Age’ Cooling On The Way

During the 20th and early 21st centuries, Earth’s inhabitants have enjoyed an epoch of
very high solar activity that is rare or unique in the context of the last several thousand
years. The higher solar activity and warmer temperatures have allowed the planet to
briefly emerge from the depths of the successive solar minima periods and “Little Ice
Age” cooling that lasted from the 1300s to the early 1900s. Unfortunately, solar scientists
have increasingly been forecasting a return to a solar minimum period in the coming
decades, as well as the concomitant cooler temperatures.

In several newly published (2017) papers, scientists have suggested that a substantial
deterioration into solar minimum conditions and global cooling may be imminent (see, for
example, here and here and here). What follows is a collection of dozens of other papers
that have also projected a solar minimum-induced “Little Ice Age” climate for the
foreseeable future.

The analysis concludes with references to recently published papers that indicate the North
Atlantic region has already begun cooling rapidly within the last decade. Scientists have
long suggested that what happens in the North Atlantic may have global-scale implications,
and thus the observed North Atlantic cooling trend may be a harbinger of the climate that
is to come.

The Modern Grand Maximum Of Solar Activity A ‘Rare’ Or ‘Unique’ Event

Usoskin et al., 2014 “[T]he modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19–23, i.e., 1950–2009) was a rare or even unique
event, in both magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia. Except for these extreme cases, our reconstruction otherwise reveals that solar
activity is well confined within a relatively narrow range.”

Lockwood et al., 2009 “[T]he Sun has been unusually active over recent decades (Solanki et al. 2004;
Vonmoos et al. 2006; Muscheler et al. 2007; Steinhilber et al. 2008). Solanki et al. (2004) used the 14C isotope
abundance found in tree trunks and concluded that the Sun has been more active recently than at any time in
the previous 8000 years and that it was as active as in recent decades for only 10% of the past 11000 years.”

Chen et al., 2015 “We explored the sources and characteristics of each pigment, reconstructed an 800-year
record of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and total incoming light intensity, and identified the possible factors
that may have influenced historical UVR changes in this region. The results indicated at least four UVR
[ultraviolet radiation] peaks during the past 800 years, corresponding to c. AD 1950–2000, 1720–1790, 1560–
1630 and 1350–1480, with the intensity from the most recent [1950-2000] sediments being the highest.”
The Modern Grand Maximum Of Solar Activity Has Recently Drawn To A
Close

Wang et al., 2010 “It is seen that a very active period that began in 1920, the so-called ‘current grand solar
maximum’, will probably end during 2011-2027, since a variety of indices related to solar activity have
significantly shifted since 1987. … [T]he current grand solar maximum has already lasted for eight 11-year
solar cycles and might end in the coming one/two 11-year cycles; a grand solar minimum might prevail in the
next 100–200 years.”

Zharkova et al., 2015 “The longest direct ervation of solar activity is the 400-year sunspot-number series,
which depicts a dramatic contrast between the almost spotless Maunder and Dalton minima, and the period
of very high activity in the most recent 5 cycles [1950s – 2000s], prior to cycle 24. … The records show that
solar activity in the current cycle 24 is much lower than in the previous three cycles 21–23 revealing more
than a two-year minimum period between cycles 23 and 24. This reduced activity in cycle 24 was very
surprising because the previous five cycles were extremely active and sunspot productive forming the Modern
Maximum.”
“We predict correctly many features from the past, such as: 1) an increase in solar activity during the
Medieval Warm period; 2) a clear decrease in the activity during the Little Ice Age, the Maunder Minimum
and the Dalton Minimum; 3) an increase in solar activity during a modern maximum in 20th century. .. We
note, in particular, a decreasing activity for solar cycles 25 and 26 coinciding with the end of the previous
350–400-year grand cycle and then increase of the solar activity again from cycle 27 onwards as the start of a
new grand cycle with an unusually weak cycle 30. Hence, cycles 25–27 marks a clear end of the modern grand
period that can have significant implications for many aspects of solar activity in human lives including the
current debate on climate change.”

Press Release A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of
irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the
Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that
solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that
began in 1645. … Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy
Meeting in Llandudno. … Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called
‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in
California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-
2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of
solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched. “Combining both waves together
and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of
97%,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong
interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar
minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder
minimum, 370 years ago.”
‘All Proponents Of Planetary Forcing Have Forecasted A Solar Grand Minimum
For The Upcoming Decades’

Sánchez-Sesma, 2015 “Solar activity (SA) has non-linear characteristics that influence multiple scales in
solar processes (Vlahos and Georgoulis, 2004). For instance, millennia-scale solar oscillations have been
recently detected, like those of about 6000 and 2400 years, by Xapsos and Burke (2009) and Charvátová
(2000), respectively, with important and interesting influences in the near past and future climate. These
millennial-scale patterns of reconstructed solar activity variability could justify epochs of low activity, such as
the Maunder Minimum, as well as epochs of enhanced activity, such as the current Modern Maximum, and
the Medieval Maximum in the 12th century. Although the reason for these solar activity oscillations is
unclear, it has been proposed that they are due to chaotic behavior of non-linear dynamo equations
(Ruzmaikin, 1983), or stochastic instabilities forcing the solar dynamo, leading to on-off intermittency
(Schmittet al., 1996), or planetary gravitational forcing with recurrent multi-decadal, multi-centennial and
longer patterns (Fairbridge and Sanders, 1987; Fairbridge and Shirley,1987; Charvátová, 2000; Duhau and
Jager, 2010; Perry and Hsu, 2000). It should be noted that all proponents of planetary forcing have forecasted
a solar Grand Minimum for the upcoming decades, but one of them has also forecasted a Super Minimum for
the next centuries (Perry and Hsu, 2000). In addition, during recent decades, statistical forecasts (with
physically-based spectral information of reconstructed records) of solar magnetic activity predict a clear
decrease in solar activity, reaching a minimum around AD 2100 (Steinhilber et al., 2013; S13, hereafter,
Velasco et al., 2015)”

Liu et al., 2011 “Climate events worldwide, such as the MWP and LIA, were seen in a 2485-year
temperature series. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature both occurred during the EJE [Eastern
Jin Event (343–425 AD)], but not in the late 20th century. The millennium-scale cycle of solar activity
determined the long-term temperature variation trends, while century-scale cycles controlled the amplitudes
of temperature. Sunspot minimum events were associated with cold periods. The prediction results obtained
using caterpillar-SSA showed that the temperature would increase until 2006 AD on the central-eastern
Plateau, and then decrease until 2068 AD, and then increase again.”
Steinhilber and Beer, 2013 “Our methods are able to predict periods of high and low solar activities for a
few centuries in the past. However, they are less successful in predicting the correct amplitude. Then, the
methods were used to predict the period 2000–2500. Both methods predict a period of low activity around
2100 A.D. Between 2100 and 2350 A.D., the results are inconsistent regarding the duration of the low-activity
state in 2100 A.D. and the level of activity until 2250 A.D.”
Lüdecke et al., 2015 “The Earth’s climate shows a rather regular oscillation of ∼ 200 year period during
the last millennia. However, frequency, phase, and strength of the oscillation are found to vary in different
time series of temperatures and for different times (see Figs. 4–6, and 5 8). Nonetheless, the relative historic
stability of the cycle suggests that the periodic nature of the climate will persist also for the foreseeable future.
Disregarding other conceivable forcings e.g. anthropogenic influences, an approximate prediction of the
climate for the next 100 years suggests itself. Figure 9 shows the Tsine representation from AD 1800 to AD
2100 derived from the ∆Tsine representation by a π/2 phase shift. It gives correctly the 1850–1900
temperature minimum and shows a temperature drop from present to ∼ AD 2080, the latter comparable with
the minimum of 1870, as already predicted in the studies (Steinhilber and Beer, 2013; Liu et al., 2011) on the
grounds of solar activity data alone.”

Herrera et al., 2015 “Of particular interest now is the fact that the behavior of the solar cycle 23 minimum
has shown an activity decline not previously seen in past cycles for which spatial observations exist: this could
be signaling the start of a new grand solar minimum.”

Evans, 2016 “Four manifestations of unconventional climate influences are identified, each with at least as
much effect on surface temperature as the direct heating effect of changes in total solar irradiance (TSI):
external-driven albedo; countervailing cooling during TSI peaks, implied by the absence of corresponding
peaks in the surface temperature record (the “notch”); the long-term sensitivity of surface warming to TSI
increases; and the delay of ∼11 years between changes in underlying or smoothed TSI and the corresponding
changes in surface temperature. We hypothesize these are all manifestations of a single force whose exact
mechanism is unknown but whose crucial properties can be deduced: “Force X” modulates the Earth’s
albedo, and lags TSI by one sunspot cycle or half the ∼22-year cycle of the Sun’s hydromagnetic dynamo. A
second, alternative hypothesis is of “force N” for the notch and “force D” for the delayed force causing the
other three manifestations. The notch-delay solar model can explain the global warming of the last few
decades and centuries in terms of force X/D. Several solar indicators including TSI peaked ∼1986, but
surface warming continued until ∼1998, which is explained by the delay. The notch-delay hypothesis predicts
sustained and significant global cooling starting sometime in the period 2017 to 2022, of ∼0.3°C but perhaps
milder (TSI estimates vary), as force X/D falls off in response to the marked decline in underlying TSI from
around 2004—one of the three biggest and fastest falls in TSI since sunspot records began in 1610.”

Abdussamatov, 2015 “A long-term negative deviation of the Earth’s average annual energy balance from
the equilibrium state is dictating corresponding variations in it’s the energy state. As a result, the Earth will
have a negative average annual energy balance also in the future. This will lead to the beginning of the
decreasing in the Earth’s temperature and of the epoch of the Little Ice Age after the maximum phase of the
24-th solar cycle approximately since the end of 2014. The influence of the consecutive chain of the secondary
feedback effects (the increase in the Bond albedo and the decrease in the concentration of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere due to cooling) will lead to an additional reduction of the absorbed solar energy and reduce
the greenhouse effect. The start of the TSI’s Grand Minimum is anticipated in the solar cycle 27±1 in 2043±11
and the beginning of the phase of deep cooling of the 19th Little Ice Age for the past 7,500 years around
2060±11. … Thus, the long term variations of the solar constant (allowing for their direct and secondary
impacts, with the latter being due to feedback effects) are the major and essential cause of climate changes
because the Earth’s climate variation is a function of longterm imbalance between the solar radiation energy
incoming into the upper layers of the Earth’s atmosphere and Earth’s total energy outgoing back to space.”
Yndestad and Solheim, 2016 “In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar
activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity
confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima
Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum
periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An
identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years,
indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type
period. …. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic
oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic
model of TSI [total solar irradiance] variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and
grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type
sunspot minimum period from about 2018 to 2055. The deterministic model of a TSI ACRIM data series
from 1700 computes a new Maunder type grand minimum period from 2015 to 2071. A model of the longer
TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 computes a new Dalton to Maunder type minimum irradiation period
from 2047 to 2068.”
Torres and Guzmán, 2016 “Conclusions Based on our results, we propose the use of the Wolf’s Number
Oscillation Index (WNOI) – as a more uniform alternative to the ONI – in the range over 30 and below -30.
The analysis of the material presented and the arguments discussed allows us to define a possible relationship
between phenomena related to Solar Cycle, the ENSO, climatic conditions, as well as some criteria for the
establishment of public policies for preservation and remediation of the environment in the long run. We can
conclude that solar activity oscillations impact the earth climatic conditions to such a extent that they become
measurable only in the long run. The magnitude of the Solar Cycle – from 7 to 17 and a mean of 11.2 years –
seems to support this statement. Based on the similarities of the Solar Cycles 5 and 24 we can expect a longer
period of cold weather for the years 2022 y/o 2034, corresponding to the Solar Cycles 24 and 25.”

Sanchez-Sesma, 2016 “This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent
multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super)
minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450). … Solar activity (SA) has non-
linear characteristics that influence multiple scales in solar processes (Vlahos and Georgoulis, 2004). For
instance, millennia-scale solar oscillations have been recently detected, like those of about 6000 and 2400
years, by Xapsos and Burke (2009) and Charvátová (2000), respectively, with important and interesting
influences in the near, past and future climate. These millennialscale patterns of reconstructed SA variability
could justify epochs of low activity, such as the Maunder minimum, as well as epochs of enhanced activity,
such as the current Modern Maximum, and the Medieval maximum in the 12th century. … We can conclude
that the evidence provided is sufficient to justify a complete updating and reviewing of present climate models
to better consider these detected natural recurrences and lags in solar processes.”

Riley et al., 2015 “[W]e suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the
Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we
may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.”

Abdusamatov, 2012 “The Earth as a planet will have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future
as well, because the Sun is entering the decline phase of the bicentennial luminosity changes. … A deep
bicentennial minimum in solar constant is to be anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little Ice Age (for the
last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11.”
Solheim et al., 2012 “No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average
temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the
temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1°C
from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local
stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun.
For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as
reinforcing a solar signal.”

Roth and Joos, 2013 “In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not
only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier
reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene
reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar
activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain
weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A
recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W
m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in
global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a
declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.”
Ahluwalia, 2014 “The Sun has emerged from a grand maximum for SSN cycles; it includes cycle 19, the
most active cycle ever observed in 400 y. The grand minima are associated with cooler Earth temperatures
(Eddy, 1976, 1981). The trend line indicates that we have entered a period of low solar activity; Ahluwalia
and Jackiewicz (2012) suggest that we are at the advent of a Dalton-like minimum. The Earth was cooler
then, made worse by Mt Tambora volcanic eruption on 5 April 1815.”

Salvador, 2013 “Using many features of Ian Wilson’s Tidal Torque theory, a mathematical model of the
sunspot cycle has been created that reproduces changing sunspot cycle lengths and has an 85% correlation
with the sunspot numbers from 1749 to 2013. The model makes a reasonable representation of the sunspot
cycle for the past 1000 yr, placing all the solar minimums in their right time periods. The forecast is for a
solar minimum and quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr.”

Mörner, 2015 “By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. This is evident
from multiple studies of quite different characteristics: the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations
of North Atlantic behaviour over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in
natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the centre of mass, the planetary spin-orbit
coupling, the planetary conjunction history and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. During
the previous grand solar minima—i.e. the Spörer Minimum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-
1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809- 1821)—the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age
periods.”

Duhau and de Jager, 2010 “[S]olar variability is presently entering into a long Grand Minimum, this being
an episode of very low solar activity, not shorter than a century. A consequence is an improvement of our
earlier forecast of the strength at maximum of the present Schwabe cycle (#24). The maximum will be late
(2013.5), with a sunspot number as low as 55. … Solar activity is believed to be associated with climate change
(De Jager and Duhau, 2009; De Jager et al., 2010; Miyahara et al., 2010). Sunspot activity can be
concentrated in the two solar hemispheres and they appear to fluctuate for 11 year cycles. However,
prolonged episodes of reduced sunspot activity, such as the Maunder Minimum, were clearly linked with an
episode of extreme cooling and bitingly cold winters in Europe and North America, known as the ‘little ice
age‘.”

Russell et al., 2010 “If we were to guess what the next solar cycle was going to be like from the behavior of
the declining phase of solar cycle 23 to date, we would select solar cycle 4 beginning in 1785 as the analog of
solar cycle 23 and solar cycles 5 and 6 as the analogs of the upcoming cycles 24 and 25. At this writing, the
similarity of the inability of the new cycle to take hold with significant new cycle activity at high latitudes is
striking. The epoch of cycles 5 and 6 has also been called the Dalton minimum, during which the sunspot
number maximized at close to 50. It was also a period of global cooling.”
Miyahara et al., 2010 “Specifically, the “Little Ice Age” covers a cyclic period of cooling and glaciation
which began in the 13th century and which continued into the 16th to 19th centuries, when glaciers began
advancing southwards in Greenland and the North Atlantic, and perhaps worldwide. These episodes of global
cooling appear to be linked to reduced solar activity. By contrast, the Medieval Warm Period occurred
during a period of heightened solar activity. If these associations are valid, then future cyclic alterations
would be expected to impact global temperatures including perhaps triggering another period of global
cooling if sunspot activity is again reduced to a minimum. … The Sun is currently showing slightly different
behavior compared with recent decades (Livingston & Penn, 2009). Consequently, concern has emerged
regarding whether the Sun is approaching the next Maunder Minimum of reduced activity. Given this
scenario, it has been suggested that global temperatures may decrease by about 0.3 °C as a result of a
reduction in total solar irradiance (Feulner & Rahmstorf, 2010).”

Scafetta, 2012 “The model forecasts a new prolonged solar grand minimum during 2020-2045, which would
be produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that
during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed.
These results clearly indicate that solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and,
furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia.”

Archibald, 2007 “Our forecast for global average temperature to 2030 has been updated for the
progression of Solar Cycle 23 and the contribution that will be made by increased carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. The increased length of Solar Cycle 23 supports the view that Solar Cycle 24 will be weak, with
the consequence of increased certainty that that there will be a global average temperature decline in the
range of 1° to 2° C for the forecast period [by 2030]. The projected increase of 40 ppm in atmospheric carbon
dioxide to 2030 is calculated to contribute a global atmospheric temperature increase of 0.04°C. The
anthropogenic contribution to climate change over the forecast period will be insignificant relative to natural
cyclic variation.”
Landschiedt, 2003 “Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to
the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a
long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the
80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are
consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion
about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be
computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of
the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as
other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out
correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.”

The North Atlantic Region – Linked To Global Climate – Has Already Been
Cooling Rapidly

Chafik et al., 2016 “The multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Ocean has a strong signal in the sea
surface temperature with many global climate linkages [Enfield et al., 2001; Knight et al., 2006]. An even
stronger multidecadal signal can be found in the subpolar temperatures and salinities, where the Atlantic
Water inflow variations constitute an essential part in the variability [Hátún et al., 2005; Häkkinen et al.,
2011a; Reverdin, 2010]. The atmospheric forcing in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean is dominated by the
variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), i.e., the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the
North Atlantic sector, which modulates the atmosphere-ocean momentum and heat exchanges on a range of
temporal scales. The subpolar ocean variability thus appears to be tightly connected to atmospheric forcing
and associated basin-scale circulation changes, which together force the subpolar ocean properties toward
extremes [Lozier et al., 2008, 2010], either to warm-saline or cold-fresh conditions on multidecadal scales.
These regime changes [in the North Atlantic] have recently been argued to be important for global mean
surface temperature warming acceleration and hiatus [Chen and Tung, 2014; Drijfhout et al., 2014].”
Duchez et al., 2016 “[C]old ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record [since 1948]
over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. … we consider the exceptionally cold ocean surface
anomaly that was already in place prior to the onset of the 2015 heat wave. The SST anomaly field for June
2015 shows temperatures up to 2 °C colder than normal over much of the sub-polar gyre with values that are
the coldest observed for this month of the year in the period 1948–2015 indicated by stippling. The cause of
this cold anomaly has been the subject of widespread interest in the media, we now show for the first time
that it can be attributed to a combination of air–sea heat loss from late 2014 through to spring 2015 and a re-
emergent sub-surface ocean heat content [cold] anomaly that developed in preceding years.”

Robson et al., 2016 “In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had
important climate impacts such as increased hurricane numbers and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe
and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean
circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Since the mid-1990s direct and
indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to
lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper
North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately 0.45 °C or 1.5 × 1022 J, reversing the
previous warming trend.”
Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Solar, Solar Sciences | 23 Responses

23 responses to “A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting

Global Cooling In The Coming Decades”

1. David Johnson 10. April 2017 at 6:12 PM | Permalink

Very worrying, far more worrying than any warming.

1. Kenneth Richard 10. April 2017 at 6:32 PM | Permalink

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an
international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13
countries.
—
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1134%2FS0016793213080227
It is shown that, over the past ∼10000 years (the Holocene), deep Maunder type
solar minima have been accompanied by sharp climate changes. It has been
established experimentally that, at ca 4.0 ka BP, there occurred a global change
in the structure of atmospheric circulation, which coincided in time with the
discharge of glacial masses from Greenland to North Atlantic and a solar
activity minimum. The climate changes that took place at ca 4.0 ka BP [4,000
years before present] and the deep solar activity minimum that occurred at ca
2.5 ka BP [2,500 years before present] affected the development of human
society, leading to the degradation and destruction of a number of ancient
civilizations.
 —
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618211006707
The Tavoliere salt-marsh appears to have contracted during the arid/warm
phases associated to maxima of solar activity and to have expanded during the
wet/cold phases of solar minima. This coastal area, characterized by a very flat
topography and arid climate, appears to have been very sensitive to even minor
hydrological and climate changes. Changes of solar activity, determining
extensive environmental transformations, were also possibly responsible for the
abandonment of the human coastal settlements of one of the most important
Neolithic archaeological districts of Italy.
—
http://www.academia.edu/1411970/The_Influence_of_Climatic_Change_on_the_
Late_Bronze_Age_Collapse_and_the_Greek_Dark_Ages
Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures cooled rapidly during the Late Bronze
Age, limiting freshwater flux into the atmosphere and thus reducing
precipitation over land. These climatic changes could have affected Palatial
centers that were dependent upon high levels of agricultural productivity.
Declines in agricultural production would have made higher-density
populations in Palatial centers unsustainable. The Greek Dark Ages that
followed occurred during prolonged arid conditions that lasted until the Roman
Warm Period.
—
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01498.x/abstract
The projected increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) is expected to
increase rice yield, but little is known of the effects of [CO2] at low temperature,
which is the major constraint to growing rice in cool climates. The results
suggest that yield gain due to elevated [CO2] can be reduced by low
temperature.

1. AndyG55 10. April 2017 at 10:14 PM | Permalink

Cooler countries in the NH will start to feel this first.

Another big worry is the parlous state of many electricity supply systems.

The anti-CO2 agenda has left many of them balanced on a knife-edge.

Wind and solar do not operate well at low temperatures, often consuming
more electricity for anti-icing than they actually produce.

2. SebastianH 11. April 2017 at 12:28 PM | Permalink

Hmm … wasn’t this supposed to be a blog against climate alarmism? Now the
skeptics are worried about cooling …

1. AndyG55 11. April 2017 at 1:36 PM | Permalink

 REALISTS have always been far more worried about cooling that a tiny
solar forced amount of warming.

As you have amply proven…CO2 has no part to play in the equation

You have shown that there is zero proof that CO2 causes warming of the
oceans, and

zero proof that CO2 causes warming of a convective atmosphere.

Let’s all just hope that there is a little bit more warming to come, because
cooling and a resulting drop in CO2 would cause food and energy
problems around the world.

Not that you care.

2. Kenneth Richard 11. April 2017 at 2:54 PM | Permalink

The difference between your alarmism and our realism is that you believe
that humans are the dominant cause of weather and climate changes,
whereas we understand that natural factors predominantly determine
warming or cooling trends. So your alarmism is about “Oh no, we’re
making the Earth spin faster and causing glaciers to melt at a catastrophic
pace relative to the year 1979!”, whereas ours is “How much longer do we
have before Northern Europe, North America, Russia…are once again
buried in a kilometer of ice?”

Scientists were seriously worried about the end of the interglacial in the
1970s…because they all know that cooling is MUCH worse than
warming. Probably no scientist thinks we’ll be just fine once the Earth
plummets into the next glacial. And the next glacial could indeed be
imminent. After all, interglacials typically last 10,000 years on
average…and we’re in year 11,700 of the Holocene. Once we do enter
into the next glacial, it’s 90,000 years of ice sheets.

2. RogTallbloke 10. April 2017 at 6:30 PM | Permalink

Excellent collation of relevant papers.

3. A Swelling Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming
Decades | Tallbloke's Talkshop 10. April 2017 at 7:34 PM | Permalink

[…] from NoTricksZone By Kenneth Richard on 10. April […]

4. Joe 10. April 2017 at 10:14 PM | Permalink

 Just a hypothesis – This next solar minimum may very well drag us into the next major
glacial period. Data shows the current, annual, mean insolation at 80 degrees N is around
the same level it was towards the end of the last major glaciation, around 18,000 – 20,000
years ago: https://i1.wp.com/ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0277379113004162-
gr4.jpg This, combined with low solar, could very well trigger the next glacial period –
and there’ll be no turning back this time – the ‘Little ice age’ a few centuries ago was a
false start to the ‘Big ice age’. Just something to think about…

5. Dan Pangburn 10. April 2017 at 10:19 PM | Permalink

A countering factor to all this is the rising water vapor. NASA/RSS has been measuring
WV by satellite and reporting it since about 1979 as total precipitable water (TPA). I
graphed their data and extrapolated it in Fig 3 of
http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com It has increased about 8% since 1960 and is
still increasing (through Feb 2017) at about 1.5%/decade. This increase is about three
times expected from just temperature rise.

Once declining solar activity and declining ocean cycles prevail, expect a rapid global
temperature down trend slowed only by the huge effective thermal capacitance of the
oceans.

1. Joe 11. April 2017 at 8:53 AM | Permalink

Dan – More water vapour = more snowfall to feed glaciers.

6. tom0mason 10. April 2017 at 11:11 PM | Permalink

Thank-you Kenneth for this compilation of papers. Now come to the true meat of the
subject of climate.
Solar events ARE the driver of climate change. Atmospheric CO2 level change is just a
symptomatic adjustment nature makes after the effect solar changes penetrate through all
the various natural processes. Man’s influence on CO2 level negligible given the natural
response to the solar events are so large.

7. BoyfromTottenham 11. April 2017 at 6:43 AM | Permalink

AndyG55 – I agree, but who/what is really behind the anti-CO2 agenda, and do ‘they’
have a plan to deal with a potentially serious cooling period (other than to watch the
developed world suffer the consequences of ‘their’ destruction of our energy security? Or
are they just a bunch of Nihilists?

8. Joe Bastardi 11. April 2017 at 3:22 PM | Permalink

Have you looked at how warm the oceans are today? We have just backed off the el nino,
yet here comes another, PERHAPS IN PART BECAUSE OF LOW SOLAR! I am a big
MOC believer, and that the state of the oceans today is not because of CO2, but because
of centuries of back and forth that is natural to the system. But what I question in all of
this, is the ignoring of the fact that IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE SOLAR CARD, the
run up to the LIA was 200 years of Maunder minimum which if you are so tuned into the
sun, had to mean the oceans were COLD when the Dalton min came along.

The oceans are very very very slow to change in the large sense. So we have the exact
opposite going on now, very warm oceans and I think in large part to the last 200 years of
the modern maximum. Throw in the chaos that evolves out of reaction to all this, and you
get a system that is very warm but has the sun as the author. Now what happens when
you decrease radiation over the tropical Pacific? the easterlies slow.. That in turn leads to
build up of warmer water in the enso regions, which in turn leads to the release of water
vapor into the atmosphere which is the number 1 GHG. While the increase over the
temperature regions is relatively small compared to normal.. that increase is much greater
relative to average in the arctic regions ( In other words, the effect on a few grams per
kilogram of Water vapor over the tropics may not have that huge and effect on the
temperature, but it does in the arctic when it works its way in there, and primarily during
its winter) You are watching that in front of your very eyes. So what happens if we keep
seeing el ninos until the imbalance caused by 200 years of high activity is finally washed
out?

I am just asking people to understand that the set up for all this is vastly different from
what set up the last LIA Regional ups and downs in SST are to be expected. A few short
years ago, the NE pac was boiling, but its cold now, but already reversing again! I would
not just look at the north atlantic. In fact one of the best arguments you have is the
INDIAN OCEAN! for cooling in the tropical oceans far far far outweighs what goes on
the further north you get. The reaction process is bang for the buck, and the tropical
oceans are the place to watch. A flip in the Indian ocean, Pacific and Atlantic in the
cycles, would lead to cooling, though not to the extent of what we saw in the 1800s but
perhaps back to the 1970s, which I think is more realistic. either way its not co2 causing
this, but nature doing what nature does. Peace to all

1. Kenneth Richard 11. April 2017 at 3:41 PM | Permalink

“So we have the exact opposite going on now, very warm oceans and I
think in large part to the last 200 years of the modern maximum.”

—
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Holocene-Cooling-Pacific-
Ocean-Heat-Content-Rosenthal-13.jpg
—
Can you explain how we have “very warm oceans” now when considering
reconstructions that show oceans are only slightly warmer now than they were
during the Little Ice Age, and much colder than during the Medieval Warm Period
(and Holocene Thermal Maximum)? The entire case you present is predicated on
the idea that we have “very warm oceans”. Relative to when? The coldest
hundred-year periods of the Holocene? And how do we even know that the
 reconstructions are right? We don’t. So we have no idea if we have “very warm
oceans” or not. Considering all the other proxy evidence, though, it’s likely the
oceans are currently NOT “very warm” relative to the last 10,000 years.

2. Kenneth Richard 11. April 2017 at 3:52 PM | Permalink

“I would not just look at the north atlantic. In fact one of the best
arguments you have is the INDIAN OCEAN!”

Like the North Atlantic, it doesn’t look like the Indian Ocean has been doing
more than oscillating since the 1930s:

http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Holocene-Cooling-Indian-
Ocean-SSTs-Zinke-16.jpg
—
On the other hand, below 2000 m….
—
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Holocene-Cooling-Pacific-
Atlantic-Indian-Oceans-WunschHeimbach14-copy.jpg
—
Wunsch and Heimbach, 2014 (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Oceans)
“A very weak long-term [1993-2011] cooling is seen over the bulk of the rest
of the ocean below that depth [2000 m], including the entirety of the Pacific
and Indian Oceans, along with the eastern Atlantic basin.”

9. Timo Soren 11. April 2017 at 4:18 PM | Permalink

I asked my students which would be worse.

Total 6 degrees of CAGW warming, with humans having to mitigate their lives over
some 100 plus years.

Or having 1km of ice covering everything north of Iowa, for about 15,000 years.

Their response was the ice ages are over, done, finito. Hence, was not a worry. Wow….

1. Kenneth Richard 11. April 2017 at 4:53 PM | Permalink

The last interglacial (Eemian, ~125,000 years ago) was several degrees C warmer
than the Holocene (11,700 – present) has been. The Arctic regions were up to 8 to
10 degrees C warmer than now. And yet we still plunged into a ~90,000-year-
long glacial period after that brief excursion of warmth.

During the Pliocene (~5 million years ago), the Arctic was 18 degrees C warmer
than now…and yet we still had glacial periods that followed.
 The students probably assume that the 1/100th of 1 percent change (0.01%) in the
atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1900 is going to keep the ice sheets from
enveloping much of North America…because that’s what they’ve been told. How
sad that we have kids who are led to believe that we humans can control the
weather, glaciers, storms, water temperatures…with our emissions.

10. Dr Norman Page 13. April 2017 at 5:37 AM | Permalink

TRUMP and PRUITT get the SCIENCE RIGHT – NATURAL CYCLES DRIVE
CLIMATE CHANGE.

Climate is controlled by natural cycles. Earth is just past the 2004+/- peak of a millennial
cycle and the current cooling trend will likely continue until the next Little Ice Age
minimum at about 2650.See the Energy and Environment paper at
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0958305X16686488
and an earlier accessible blog version at http://climatesense-
norpag.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-coming-cooling-usefully-accurate_17.html
Here is the abstract for convenience:

“ABSTRACT
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community
are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth’s
climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of
varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good
understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those
different interacting natural quasi periodicities. Evidence is presented specifying the
timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and, more importantly, 1,000 year
periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record.
Data related to the solar climate driver is discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the
neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak
and correlated with the millennial peak -inversion point – in the RSS temperature trend in
about 2004. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general
temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and
amplitude of the coming cooling are made. If the real climate outcomes follow a trend
which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence
between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as
to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts
untenable.””

11. conscious1 17. April 2017 at 10:45 PM | Permalink

Kenneth,
Your efforts are invaluable to those of us fighting the disinformation! Thanks so much!
Please keep up the good work! The Alarmist’s become the science deniers when they
refuse to accept current peer reviewed papers.
12. Walter 18. April 2017 at 4:23 AM | Permalink

I wish all the global warming alarmists who instigated the freon evolution (they did
nothing to change the chemical composition of refrigerants that supposedly killed the
ozone, they only blended them, creating an azeotropic mixture that easily reverts back to
its original components which are the r11 r12 r502 r22 refrigerants they have banned) this
of course made millions for Dupont (whose patent for these refrigerants expired in the
same time frame as when the ban went into effect) and made everyone retrofit or replace
everything with an inferior product that has higher pressures, harder to work with,
requires oil that is so volatile it will absorb moisture from the air, and still needs to be
recovered and bottled because after all, it’s basically the same refrigerant. Companies
who developed an actual environmentally safe refrigerant were quickly snuffed, bought
out, or received so much bad press they went bankrupt.

13. Globalismen - dess för och nackdelar - Avancemang 18. April 2017 at 10:51 AM |
Permalink

[…] Se på debatten om global uppvärmning, här är eliten helt enig, och inga andra åsikter
tillåts i finrummen. Men samtidigt produceras det alla möjliga andra teorier runt om på
universiteten i världen. Klimatforskning förefaller vara mer komplicerat än vi tror. Vissa
forskare menar till och med att vi är på väg mot en global köldperiod. […]

14. Current and Possible Future Cooling | Pearltrees 23. April 2017 at 12:13 PM |
Permalink

[…] The Coeur d'Alene Press – Randy Mann, German scientists predict a century of
global cooling. Major Danish Daily Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice
Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”! New Research Paper Predicts
15 Years Of Cooling: 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to
the recent weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation. New paper predicts solar activity
will decline over 21st century to average Holocene levels – Published in Climate of the
Past. Lawrence Solomon: Proof that a new ice age has already started is stronger than
ever, and we couldn’t be less prepared. German Geologist: IPCC Models A Failure,
“Have No Chance Of Success”…Sees Possible 0.2°C Of Cooling By 2020. A Swelling
Volume Of Scientific Papers Now Forecasting Global Cooling In The Coming Decades.
[…]