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10 Analysis
TI141317 – Simulasi Sistem Industri
Simulation Procedure
Build model
Validate model
Conduct experiment
Present result
Preventive Action
– Get it right the first time (models with no bugs the
first time)
– In practice, this isn’t always possible as bugs are
often sneaky and difficult to prevent
Preventive Action
To avoid errors or bugs we can use five basic principles of
structured programming
– Top Down design, the simulation begins at a high level
– Modularity. The model is built in modules or logical divisions
to simplify model development.
– Compact modules. Modules should be kept as short and
simple as possible.
– Stepwise refinement. The model is built with complexity
being progressively added.
– Structured control
Optimum effort
Total cost
Cost
Validation Cost
Risk cost
Validation effort
l Verification
– Building the model right
l Validation
– Building the right model
l Verification and Validation must be conducted
simultaneously throughout the model
development process
Build model
Validate model
Conduct experiment
Present result
l Judgmental Approach
l Statistical Approach
It depends strongly on the nature of problem,
importance of the decision, and the validity of
the input data
∑x i
i
x=
n
n 2
s=
∑ [x − x ]
i=1 i
n −1
l For example,
Buddy opens his barbershop at 8:00 A.M. and closes at
noon on Saturday. In order to determine the exact value
for the true average number of customers getting a
haircut on Saturday morning (µ), we decide to get an
estimate of the true mean µ by spending the next 12
Saturday mornings watching TV at Buddy’s and recording
the number of customers that get a haircut between
8:00 A.M. and 12:00 noon.
12
∑ x
i =1 i
x=
12
21 + 16 + 8 + ! + 10
=
12
= 13.67
12 2
[x
∑i =1 i − 13 . 67 ]
s=
12 − 1
= 4.21
hw =
(t n −1,α / 2 )s
n
Lab. KOI Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS
Interval Estimates
hw =
( t11,0.025 ) s ( 2.201) 4.21
= = 2.67 haircuts
n 12
The lower and upper limits of the 95 percent
confidence interval are calculated as follows:
2 2
s s (1)
x − t n −1,1−α / 2 ≤ µ ≤ x + t n −1,1−α / 2
n n
where n n
2
∑x i
i ∑ (x
i
i − x)
x= s=
n n −1
xi = the value of ith observation
n = replication number
2
s
t n −1,1−α / 2 ≤β (2)
n
Steps to calculate ab ( β ) :
n ∗
l Example:
We want to estimate the number of
replication n’ needed to be able to assert with
95 percent (1–α =0.95) confidence that the
sample mean x we compute is off by at most
2.00 haircuts (e =2.00) from the true but
unknown mean x . Based on the initial sample
of 12 observation, we know that s = 4.21
haircuts. We compute n’ as follows
(2.11)4.28
hw =
18
= 2.13 haircuts
Increase the number of
observation (gradually) to obtain
at most 2 (of s).
x−µ
≤γ
µ
2
s
t n −1,1−α / 2
n ≤γ (3)
x
l Example:
We wish to determine the approximate number of
replications needed to estimate the mean number
of haircuts given per day with an error percentage
of 17.14 percent and confidence level of 95
percent
2 2
⎡ (z )s ⎤ ⎡ (1.96)4.21 ⎤
nʹ = ⎢ 0.025 ⎥ = ⎢ ⎥ = 17.02
⎢⎣ ( 1+re ) ⎥⎦ ⎢⎣ ( 1+0.1714 )
re x 0.1714 13.67
⎥⎦
≈ 18 observations
⎧ w
⎪ ∑ s=−w
yi+s
if i = w +1,…, m − w
⎪⎪ 2w +1
yi = ⎨ i−1
⎪
⎪
∑ y
s=−(i−1) i+s
if i = 1,…, w
⎪⎩ 2i −1
l Depends on:
– Number of replication required
– Interval between the least frequently occurring event