ISTANBUL SEHIR UNIVERSITY

The Russian extended influence, The position of

EU, The historical experience
Final exam
Sadmir Sisic
2/10/2018

Russian extended influence in Serbia, position of the EU. Connection with Serbia through history.
What youth mean about Russian influence in Serbia.
Sadmir Sisic

Contents
1.Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 3
2. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 3
3. Soft power diplomacy influence .......................................................................................................... 3
3.1. Energy sector and other economic influences ................................................................................ 5
3.2 Media and culture influence ............................................................................................................. 6
4.Public opinion (graphics) ...................................................................................................................... 7
4.1 Youth opinion .................................................................................................................................... 9

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1.Abstract
Russian influence in Serbia is reflected through cultural ties, energy, media. What is
important to highlight is its relation through Orthodox Church, and Slavic culture. But this
connection with Russia, doesn´t influence on Serbian government to decide, and put to top
priorities to join EU. But, here is euroskepticism, which was mostly caused by Eurozone crisis
in 2008 and Brexit in 2016. Hence, the Euroskepticism that has arisen among Serbian political
and intellectual elites open the door widely for Russia to expand its influence in the Balkans.
Here, the question is what makes such achievement on Russian side to have a influence in
Serbia? To answer this question, we will use two top Russian media that has influence, and
they are Sputnik and Russia Today. Also good comparison are energy through statistics,
diplomacy and trade. What make special all this, is how youth in Serbia see this influence,
and their critical opinions.

Key words: influence, Russia, Serbia, EU, history

2. Introduction
In the past decade, Russia has increased its presence toward soft power tools in Serbia:
- diplomacy
- energy deals
- trade
Russia, in direct response to Western activity in Serbia, started expanding its media presence
in the country through Russia Today and Sputnik. To better explain influence of Russia in
Serbia, it is good to say something about history of both countries and their connections
through it. These two countries are historicaly connected through Orthodox Church and
culture. This has been cultivating for years. On the opposite side, The European Union and
the West need Serbia for similar reasons—to extend their sphere of influence, uphold their
regional policies, and create a buffer against Russia.

The paper aims to analyze the influence of Russia in comparison to European Union. In the
fact that when it comes to influence, there are two widespread sides-one, what statistics show,
and the second, what people thinks, or more precisely, history in competiton with “ better
tomorrow”. Therefore it would be incomplete to speak only from one perspective. The task is
to take into account both approaches and to compare them to get a more realistic picture of the
influence of both-Russia and European Union.

3. Soft power diplomacy influence

Vladimir Putin´s visit Serbia on 16. October has marked its tendency to secure its interests in
Balkan and use Belgrade in its conflicts with the West.1 This has formed very strong position
in Serbia because of its dependence on many Russian sources.This hasn´t been Russian

1
OSW Russia in Serbia – soft power and hard interest , retrieved from its official page
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje

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priority, especially if we look on Soviet countries. However, this position in West Balkan
countries secure its interests from two reasons: this territory is suitable for maintaining a
rivalry towards great powers. But why Serbia? Russia has links with Serbia since ancient
times. If we look at history, this link is manifested through the Orthodox Church as well as the
culture that connects these two countries-Slavic culture. This kind of connection, as I've
already said, has been cultivating for years. On the conference which took place in Serbia in
2015 headlined as “‘Balkan Dialogue—Russia’s Soft Power in Serbia”, Russian lieutenant
general in SRV Leonid Reshetnikov concluded the following:

[W]e have forgotten that we are a civilization that is an alternative to the Anglo-Saxon
civilization. Our mission is to
carry our civilization into the world and to propose our
view. Our soft power is to be loyal to the principles of the
Orthodox civilization. That is the idea we should have in
mind when we talk about the influence of Russia. Why do
Serbs and Russians so easily find a common language? Because we have the same root, we
easily find a common language with the Serbs.2

That’s why Russia force interests with Serbia and the Serbian minorities in the neighbouring
countries – Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo. The other reason is that this is
precisely the soil link to energy supply to Europe, as well as Russia's attempt to make it
dominant in that field. All these activities date back to 2008, and to the event of Kosovo.
However, Russian activities are more and more effective, and its tendency is to gain Serbian
support. On the other side, Serbia began European Union accession negotiations in 2014.
Different government opinions about joining EU, put Serbia in position of ” sitting on two
chairs”, as US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Hoyt Brian Yee claims about countries in
Balkan and their integration “must very clearly demonstrate this desire”, adding “You cannot
sit on two chairs at the same time, especially if they are that far away.”3

Eurozone crisis in 2008 and Brexit in 2016 have caused euroskepticism in Serbia, which left
Russia the space to consolidate the long-established foundations of domination in Serbia in
relation to the West and the European Union.

On 22 February 2016, the Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies (CEAS) from Belgrade organized
the conference: “Serbia and Russia - Russian influence on stabilization, democratization and
European integration of Serbia”4 From this conference it is concluded that the Serbian
government uses mother Russia for an excuse to preserve traditional relations-to slow down
processes towards European integration. As I have already mentioned in abstract, the

2
The Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies, Eyes Wide Shut: Strengthening of Russian Soft
Power in Serbia: Goals, Instruments, and Effects, May 2016 (citing ‘‘Soft Power’’ of Russia in
Serbia—Possibilities and Perspectives, NSPM [Nova Srpska Politicka Misao], Dec. 15, 2014 (in
Serbian))
3
Serbian Defense Minister Denounces U.S. Official’s ‘Unfriendly‘ Remarks,’’ Radio Free Europe/Radio Free
Liberty,
4
CEAS (center for Euro-Atlantic studies) Belgrade- retrieved from official site: www.ceas-serbia.org

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Euroskepticism that has arisen among Serbian political and intellectual elites open the door
widely for Russia to expand its influence in the Balkans.

3.1. Energy sector and other economic influences

As for the Russian influence on the energy sector and other economic investments, it is necessary to
distinguish two types of import and export. But in order to clearly state the influence of Russia, it is
important to note what the public thinks and what statistical data show. Also, it is important to note
that this kind of data creates a link for the second influence, which is the media, because if it is not
so, the statistic sections and public opinion would not be contradictory. But when it comes to
influence, it is important to highlight that the historical curve shows different results, according to
the development of the state in each sector, and the need for domination in a certain area and hist .
but when it comes to Russia, the data show that the rise in influence on Serbia began in 2008 with
the secession of Kosovo, which Russia did not support, but, thanks to that, took over the company
NIS. 5

As the statistics show, Russia has big influence on energy sector in Serbia. For example, statistics
from 2014 show that Russia has provided 40 percent of the gas consumed. from the negotiations in
December 2017, it was concluded that Serbia will increase gas imports from 33 percent in 2018 by 33
percent. It is also important to emphasize the domination of the Russian gasprom on the territory of
Serbia, where it holds the majority share of the national oil company. On the other hand, the EU and
USA are working on negotiations with Belgrade on the conversion of energy resources through
projects such as, for example, the Interconnector SerbiaBulgaria, but the possibilities for this are
small. 6

Between 2005 and 2013, Russia was Serbia’s eight largest investor, making it a significant player but
by no means the dominant economic force. In 2011, according to the Statistical Office of the Republic
of Serbia, 57.6 percent of Serbia’s total exports went to the EU, compared to only 6.7 percent to
Russia. Misunderstanding did not come from Russia, but arose because the EU does not tell its own
story. The EU and other Western countries have been unable to turn their investments into political
influence. According to the results of poll, conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
between December 2016 and January 2017 (BCSP, 2017a), Russia was perceived by Serbians as a
major political (70 %) and military (79 %) power and its influence on Serbian foreign policy was seen
as positive by 61 % of those surveyed. Unsurprisingly, almost half of respondents (48 %) were
satisfied with the current level of cooperation between the countries, one-third would support
Serbia’s joining a Russia-led Eurasian Union, and a quarter believed that the two countries should

5
OSW Russia in Serbia – soft power and hard interest , retrieved from its official page
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje
6
Statistical datas retrieved from Janusz Bugajski and Margarita Assenova, ‘‘Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s
Vulnerable Flanks,’’ The Jamestown Foundation, June 2016, at 242; ‘‘Gazprom to Increase by 33% Natgas
Exports to Serbia in 2018,’’

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form some kind of a political alliance.7 When it comes to other influences, for example, in education,
or similar pro-education foundations, according to CEAS, the most influential one is Nashi, youth
foundation/organization, which was created in 2006, and had (or still have) a task to oppose the
Serbian integration to Europenian integrations, and the organization was close to Moscow. Similar to
this one are many organizations/foundations, such as Patriotic front tasked to train Serbian children
in Siberia, and Patriotic front Zavetnici, mostly youth organizations with similar tasks to Nashi. Russia
has also formed Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center in Nis, in 2012, to help Serbia against
disasters.

Relations of Serbia and Russia through years of projects of energy deals:

December 2006: Gazprom and Serbiagas agree to do a study for a new pipeline

January 2008: Serbia and Russia sign a strategic energy deal (just weeks before Kosovo declares
independence), including 51% of NIS for Gazprom for EUR 400 mil, Banatski Dvor storage facility and
routing of the South Stream through Serbia

November 2009: Serbiagas and Gazprom form South Stream Serbia AG November 2011 Banatski
Dvor underground storage facility was inaugurated (cap. 450 mcu) October 2012 South Stream Serbia
signs the financing decision for Serbian portion – first such decision for the project. Hungary, Slovenia
and Bulgaria followed within months.

November 2009: Serbiagas and Gazprom form South Stream Serbia AG

November 2011: Banatski Dvor underground storage facility was inaugurated (cap. 450 mcu)

October 2012: South Stream Serbia signs the financing decision for Serbian portion – first such
decision for the project. Hungary, Slovenia and Bulgaria followed within months.

November 2013: works start on construction of the Serbian portion in village Sajkas in Vojvodina.
Estimated cost of the Serbian portion – EUR 1.9 billion.

December 2014: Serbia announces losses of EUR 30 million (11 m for projects and preparatory
works, 19 m for land expropriation)

January 2016: Serbia estimates the project might not be dead (or could be succeeded by Tesla)8

3.2 Media and culture influence

Russia, in direct response to Western activity in Serbia, started expanding its media presence in the
country through Russia Today and Sputnik.

Sputnik is a news agency, news websites and radio broadcast service established in 2014 by the
Russian government, headquartered in Moscow.

7
Retrieved from Directorate-General for external policies, Policy department, Serbia’s cooperation with China,
the European Union, Russia and the United States of America
8
Russia – Energy as Diplomacy in the 21st Century retrieved from: www.ceas-serbia.org

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RT is a Russian international television network funded by the Russian government. It operates cable
and satellite television channels directed to audiences outside of Russia, as well as providing Internet
content in various languages, including English, Spanish, and Russian.

Serbia could not defend itself from the influence of the Russian anti-propaganda of the EU, which
spread through the entire state with indisputable resistance. As well as the US Department of State
mentioned:

number of media outlets and NGOs taking pro-Russian stands has grown from a dozen to over a
hundred in recent years, and the free content offered by Russian state outlets such as Sputnik make
them the most quoted foreign sources in the Serbian press.9

By the time of 1948, Russian language in Serbian primary and secondary schools become obligatory
like a first foreign language, which, also, shows how impact was great and how plan was strong,
because language is the strongest weapon of culture. But how it become so wide? The statistics show
that Soviet films were in cinemas over 50 percent between 1946-1950 years. So on this way, it
becomes wide in country, so people or students were able to learn it on easy way.

One other indicator of cultural influence, is literature. According to statistics, up to 90´s, there were
2573 items translated from Russian into Serbian, and this was mostly Belletristic literature.

Russian media in Serbia focuses on several areas to have influence in it. There is a tactic how they
react and how they made achievements. One area is to promote the Russian view of international
situation. Next one could be against EU claiming that their interests are not good for Serbia. One also
important area is to show Russia as Serbia´s ”closest friend “. And one more area is to show the
impact on government, but in negative sense.

Another good indicator of Russia's influence on the media is the fact that a handful of Serbian
citizens knew Russia as a participant in the war in Afghanistan for nearly 9 years. The following table
shows this fact:

Only 18 percent of population 18-

35 age knew it was Russia.
who waged war in
Afghanistan for 9 years at the
end of 20 century
60
50
40 who waged war in
30 Afghanistan for 9
20 years at the end of
4.Public opinion 20 century
10
(graphics) 0
USA Don´t know Russia

9
U.S. Department of State, Background Information on Serbia provided to Committee Staff,

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Would the assumed alliance with Russia improve / have positive effects or set back / have negative
effects on…

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
improve
20
10 set back
0
wouldn´t affect
doesn´tknow

would an alliance with do you support

Russia imply support to this?
Russian foreign policy?
100 yes
80
60 would an alliance no
40 with Russia imply
20 support to
0 Russian foreign doesn´t
policy know

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4.1 Youth opinion