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proyeccion

año demanda N3
1980 14.00
1981 15.40
1982 15.80
1983 19.30 15.07
1984 21.50 16.83
1985 25.10 18.87
1986 27.00 21.97
1987 27.10 24.53
1988 31.10 26.40
1989 33.90 28.40
1990 34.90 30.70
1991 36.20 33.30
1992 39.30 35.00
1993 44.80 36.80
1994 45.30 40.10
1995 46.80 43.13
1996 48.30 45.63
proyeccion error relativo
N4 N5 N6 N3 N4 N5

-4.23
16.13 -4.67 -5.37
18.00 17.20 -6.23 -7.10 -7.90
20.43 19.42 18.52 -5.03 -6.57 -7.58
23.23 21.74 20.68 -2.57 -3.87 -5.36
25.18 24.00 22.63 -4.70 -5.92 -7.10
27.58 26.36 25.18 -5.50 -6.32 -7.54
29.78 28.84 27.62 -4.20 -5.12 -6.06
31.75 30.80 29.85 -2.90 -4.45 -5.40
34.03 32.64 31.70 -4.30 -5.27 -6.66
36.08 35.08 33.75 -8.00 -8.72 -9.72
38.80 37.82 36.70 -5.20 -6.50 -7.48
41.40 40.10 39.07 -3.67 -5.40 -6.70
44.05 42.48 41.22 -2.67 -4.25 -5.82

sesgo -63.87 -74.86 -83.32

señal de rastreo -14 -13 -12


ativo error absoluto
N6 N3 N4 N5 N6

4.23
4.67 5.37
6.23 7.10 7.90
-8.48 5.03 6.57 7.58 8.48
-6.42 2.57 3.87 5.36 6.42
-8.47 4.70 5.92 7.10 8.47
-8.72 5.50 6.32 7.54 8.72
-7.28 4.20 5.12 6.06 7.28
-6.35 2.90 4.45 5.40 6.35
-7.60 4.30 5.27 6.66 7.60
-11.05 8.00 8.72 9.72 11.05
-8.60 5.20 6.50 7.48 8.60
-7.73 3.67 5.40 6.70 7.73
-7.08 2.67 4.25 5.82 7.08

-87.78 DAM 4.56 5.76 6.94 7.98

-11
error cuadrado
N3 N4 N5 N6

17.89
21.81 28.84
38.81 50.41 62.41
25.30 43.16 57.46 71.91
6.60 14.98 28.73 41.22
22.09 35.05 50.41 71.74
30.25 39.94 56.85 76.04
17.64 26.21 36.72 53.00
8.41 19.80 29.16 40.32
18.49 27.77 44.36 57.76
64.00 76.04 94.48 122.10
27.04 42.25 55.95 73.96
13.47 29.16 44.89 59.75
7.13 18.06 33.87 50.13

MSE 22.78 34.74 49.61 65.27


alpha 0.9

periodo demanda Yt proyeccion Y^ error relativo error absoluto error cuadrado


1980 14.00 14.00 - - -
1981 15.40 14.00 -1.40 1.40 1.96
1982 15.80 15.26 -0.54 0.54 0.29
1983 19.30 15.75 -3.55 3.55 12.60
1984 21.50 18.95 -2.55 2.55 6.50
1985 25.10 21.25 -3.85 3.85 14.82
1986 27.00 24.72 -2.28 2.28 5.20
1987 27.10 26.77 -0.33 0.33 0.11
1988 31.10 27.07 -4.03 4.03 16.24
1989 33.90 30.70 -3.20 3.20 10.24
1990 34.90 33.58 -1.32 1.32 1.74
1991 36.20 34.77 -1.43 1.43 2.04
1992 39.30 36.06 -3.24 3.24 10.50
1993 44.80 38.98 -5.82 5.82 33.87
1994 45.30 44.22 -1.08 1.08 1.17
1995 46.80 45.19 -1.61 1.61 2.59
1996 48.30 46.64 -1.66 1.66 2.76
sesgo -37.89
DAM 2.37
MSE 7.66
señal de rastreo -15.99

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