Pakistan Infrastructure

Report
Executive Summary
You have downloaded a PDF of BMI's latest views on the market, summarising the key findings that are
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Pakistan Infrastructure Report Published Date: 01 Jan 2017

Table of contents
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Pakistan 2015-2021) 7
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Pakistan 2015-2015) 8
SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11

Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11

Latest Updates 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Pakistan 2015-2024) 11
Structural Trends 12

Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 16

Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 16

Latest Updates 16

Structural Trends 17
Table: Competitiveness Of Pakistan's Infrastructure 17
Major Projects - Transport 21
Table: Major Projects - Transport 21
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 22

Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 22

Latest Updates 22

Structural Trends 22

Major Projects - Energy & Utilities 31

Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities 31
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 32

Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 32

Latest Updates 32

Structural Trends 32

Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 33

Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects 33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 34

Pakistan Risk/Reward Index 34

Rewards 34

Risks 34

Asia Pacific Infrastructure RRI: Developed Markets Increasingly At Risk 35

Table: Asia Risk/Reward Index 41
Market Overview 42

Competitive Landscape 42
Table: EQS DATA 43
Company Profile 44

National Construction 44

Methodology 46

Industry Forecast Methodology 46

Sector-Specific Methodology 47

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Risk/Reward Index Methodology 51

Sector-Specific Methodology 52
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

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 Pakistan Infrastructure Report Published Date: 01 Jan 2017

BMI View: Pakistan's infrastructure industry is receiving extraordinary levels of investment from China for its
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor scheme . This will drive sector and economic growth over the coming years. Risks to
growth are numerous: w idespread corruption, the poor security situation and a poor business and operating
environment.

Forecasts A nd Latest Updates

● Chinese President Xi Jinping has signed an agreement with Pakistan promising investment worth USD46bn.
The investment will be focused on building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which will be a network of
railways, roads and pipelines between the two nations. The economic corridor will run 3,000km from
Gwadar, Pakistan to the western Xinjiang region in China.
● The realisation of this investment over 2015-2016 saw sector growth of 15.7% in 2016. We have
significantly upgraded our outlook for Pakistan's construction and infrastructure industry almost exclusively
on the weight of China's investment. We now forecast growth to average 11.8% annually over 2016-2020,
and 9.1% over 2016-2025.
● Transport and utilities are the main focus of investment, with a large number of projects under way in both
sectors. Both are benefiting from regional financing: the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is providing
USD800mn of loans to strengthen the country's power sector infrastructure, as well as co-funding the
USD327mn Hassanabdal-Havelian Expressway (E-35) project.

Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Pakistan 2016-2022)

2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, %
15.68 13.50 12.31 10.31 7.31 7.41 6.91
y-o-y
Construction Industry Value, % of GDP 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3
702.10 839.00 992.64 1,154.56 1,308.23 1,483.65 1,675.16
Construction industry value, PKRbn

f = BMI forecast. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, BMI

Risk/Reward Index

● Pakistan has a weak overall score of 35.6 out of 100 on the Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index and the
country ranks 20 th out of 21 countries in the Asia region.
● The country's score is held back by a poor performance in the Rewards section, where slow growth is a result
of limited public spending capacity and lack of private investor interest.
● The Risks performance, although slightly more positive, is still subpar due to widespread corruption and the
underdeveloped nature of the construction sector.

Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Pakistan 2016-2016)

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Risk/Reward Index Rewards Industry Rewards Country Rewards Risks Industry Risks Country Risks
36.3 33.1 27.5 43.6 43.6 35.0 49.3
Source: BMI

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Pakistan Infrastructure Report Published Date: 01 Jan 2017

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