To: Interested Parties

From: Ben Greenfield, Change Research

Date: May 7, 2018

RE: California US House District 48 Race

A recent poll from Change Research of 590 registered voters shows that Hans Keirstead is the
clear favorite among Democrats in California’s 48th Congressional District, and is well
positioned to finish in the top two in the June 5 primary and advance to November’s general
election. But with Republican Scott Baugh on Keirstead’s heels, any further dilution of
Keirstead’s support among the other Democrats in the race could result in an all-Republican
general election.

Presenting voters with positive messages and biographical information about Keirstead and #2
Democrat Harley Rouda only widens the gulf between the two candidates: after reading these
© 2018 Change Research
positive messages, as well as positive messages about incumbent Dana Rohrabacher and
Republican Scott Baugh, Keirstead gains 10 points, overtaking even Rohrabacher, while Rouda
gains only a point.

Following a battery of negative messages about each candidate, Keirstead remains tied with
Rohrabacher atop the field, having gained the most support since the first ask. Baugh is 4 points
behind in 3rd place, while Rouda’s support is at 11% -- where it was at the beginning of the poll.

Keirstead’s initial supporters are steadfast: 84% continue to support him at the end of the
survey. This number is equal to Republican Scott Baugh’s 84%; by contrast, only 56% of Rouda’s
supporters continue to indicate their support at the poll’s end.

METHODOLOGY
Registered voters in California’s 48th Congressional District were solicited, between May 2-3, in
a survey conducted in English. Change Research applied proprietary Bias Correct technology to
solicitations in order to yield a mostly representative sample. Incomplete responses,
unregistered voters, and voters outside of CA-48 were filtered, leaving a sample of 590. Results
based on 590 respondents who self ID as registered voters living in CA-48, and who answered
most of the questions. Sample demographics are close to the electorate for age, gender, and
© 2018 Change Research
ethnicity. Post-stratification done on age, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote. Margin of error,
as traditionally calculated, is +/- 4%.

###

© 2018 Change Research