Doc 9956

Doc 9956
ICAO Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts: Pilots s Maintenance Personnel s Air Traffic Controllers
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

999
 

University
 

Street,
 

Montréal,
 

Quebec
 


 

•
 


 

H3C
 

5H7
 


 

•
 


 

Canada
Tel.:
 

+1
 

514-954-8219
 


 

•
 


 

Fax:
 

+1
 

514-954-6077
www.icao.int

Global and Regional

20-year Forecasts
Pilots s Maintenance Personnel s Air Traffic Controllers
Published
 

in
 

separate
 

English,
 

Arabic,
 

Chinese,
 

 Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority
French,
 

Russian
 

and
 

Spanish
 

editions
 

by
 

the
INTERNATIONAL
 

CIVIL
 

AVIATION
 

ORGANIZATION

For
 

ordering
 

information
 

and
 

for
 

a
 

complete
 

listing
 

of
 

sales
 

agents
and
 

booksellers,
 

please
 

go
 

to
 

the
 

ICAO
 

website
 

at
 

www.icao.int
 



Doc
 

9956,
 

Global
 

and
 

Regional
 

20-year
 

Forecasts:
 


Pilots,
 

Maintenance
 

Personnel
 

and
 

Air
 

Traffic
 

Controllers
Order
 

Number:
 

9956
ISBN
 

978-92-9231-729-4

©
 

ICAO
 

2011

All



rights



reserved.



No



part



of



this



publication



may



be



reproduced,




stored



in



a



retrieval



system



or



transmitted



in



any



form



or



by



any




means,



without



prior



permission



in



writing



from



the



International




Civil



Aviation



Organization.
ICAO:
The undisputed reference for
aviation data and traffic forecasts.
This



manual



constitutes



an



independent



study



 and



by



region.



Failure



to



quantify



such



shortages




regarding



civil



aviation



personnel



and



contributes



 or



surpluses



could



not



only



constrain



air



traffic




to



the



aviation



data



and



traffic



forecasts



for



which




growth,



but



could



also



adversely



affect



the




the



International



Civil



Aviation



Organization



(ICAO)



 safety



and



efficiency



of



air



transport



operations.




is



recognized. Before



the



air



transport



industry



crisis



in



2008




and



2009,



the



threat



of



a



widening



gap



between




During



the



last



decade,



commercial



air



transport



 available



and



required



personnel



was



seen



as




has



shown



a



strong



traffic



growth



pattern,



leading



 a



potential



traffic



growth



constraint



in



certain




to



many



new



commercial



air



transport



operators



 regions.



The



challenge



for



the



industry



remains




and



the



highest



number



of



aircraft



orders



ever



 to



ensure



sufficient



training



capacities



without




registered.



Over



the



next



twenty



years,



the



 compromising



quality



and



safety



standards.
demand



for



qualified



aviation



personnel,



such




as



pilots,



aircraft



maintenance



personnel



and



air



 In



the



short



term,



the



pressure



might



be




traffic



controllers



will



need



to



be



correlated



to



 temporarily



eased



since



the



airline



industry



is




aircraft



delivery



plans.



 still



recovering



from



the



decline



in



traffic



growth




due



to



the



global



financial



crisis



and



is



therefore




The



approach



taken



in



this



study



compares



the



 carefully



managing



the



redeployment



of



its




number



of



new



personnel



to



be



trained



each



 capacity.



However,



difficulties



may



soon



arise




year



with



the



annual



training



capacities



of



the



 when



the



additional



demand



for



personnel,



fuelled




existing



training



infrastructure,



with



a



view



to



 by



traffic



increases



and



fleet



expansion,



coincides




expose



possible



shortages



or



surpluses



globally



 with



predicted



retirement



waves.
Table of Contents
Scope of the study
Glossary of terms,
definitions and abbreviations
6 Air transport development 18
for 2010–2030
8 Traffic growth for 2010–2030 ................................... 18
Aircraft movement growth for 2010–2030................ 18
Fleet growth for 2010–2030 ..................................... 22

Methodology 10 Fleet growth rates

u

u Aircraft group distribution

Data collection.......................................................... 10 u Geographical aircraft distribution

u 2008 ICAO Survey

Form D of the ICAO Statistics Programme
Pilots 26
u

u SAAQ of the USOAP

Reporting coverage .................................................. 12 The 2010 pilot population ......................................... 26

Development of personnel forecasts ....................... 13 Pilot requirements for 2010–2030 ............................ 26
u Fleet growth rates u High scenario
u General assumptions u Most likely scenario
• Validation of current population data • Case study: augmented United States attrition rate
• Attrition rates u Low scenario

• Training capacities
• Personnel ratios
– Pilots/aircraft ratios

%
– Maintenance personnel/aircraft ratios
– Aircraft movements/ATCO ratios

%
%

%
Constraints and facilitators....................................... 36
u Age limit for flight crews
u Regulatory framework of pilot mobility
u The probable migratory flows
u Challenges associated with pilot mobility
u Optimizing the training infrastructure
u Overview of the implementation
Air traffic controllers 50
The 2010 air traffic controller population.................. 50
Air traffic controller personnel requirements
for 2010–2030 .......................................................... 52
u Case study: augmented ATCO efficiency

of the MPL programme

u The coexistence of the two approaches Regional overview 56
to pilot training
u Other possible personnel reserves
Conclusion: 68
the ICAO vision for the Next Generation
Maintenance personnel 44 of Aviation Professionals
The 2010 maintenance personnel population .......... 44 u The need for reliable statistics
Maintenance personnel requirements u The “Best and the Brightest”
u Facilitating the use of
for 2010–2030 .......................................................... 46
competency-based approaches
Constraints and facilitators....................................... 48 u Removing regulatory obstacles
u Availability of maintenance personnel u A coordinating mechanism is required
u Training concept for licensed personnel
in aircraft maintenance

% List of tables,
charts and graphs
72

% Appendices 73
%
Most likely scenario
Pilot comparison: 2010–2030

60 000

40 000

20 000 Training capacities

Training needs
0 Surplus

Shortage
-20 000

Africa As
sia
a/
Asia/ Euro
op
pe
Europe La
atin
Latin Mid
ddlee
Middle h
North
Pac
cifi
fic
Pacific Ameeriica
America Ea
ast
East Americca
America

Maintenance personnel comparison: 2010–2030

60 000

50 000

40 000

30 000

20 000 Training capacities

10 000 Training needs

0 Surplus
-10 000
Shortage
-20 000

Africa
i Asia/
A i / Europ
E
Europe L ti
Latin Mid
ddl
Middle N th
North
Pacific America East America
The graph below compares, for each region, annual
training requirements of ATCOs between 2010 and 2030
with annual training capacities.

ATCO comparison: 2010–2030

6 000 .
5 000

4 000

3 000 Training capacities

2 000 Training needs

1 000 Surplus
0
Shortage
-1 000

Africa Asia/
As
sia
a/ Europe
Euro
op
pe Latin
La
atin Middle
Mid
ddlee North
h
Pacific
Pac
cifi
fic America
Ameeriica East
Ea
ast America
Americca
Human resources development and management
must strive to continuously improve the competency
levels of safety-critical personnel, while taking
into account interdependencies for supply and
demand of qualified personnel at national, regional
and global levels. Estimating current and future
requirements for civil aviation personnel and
training capacity in each region is essential for
human resources planning, institutional capacity
building, and related funding and policy measures.
Using its breadth of civil aviation expertise,
international network, and decades of practice
producing high-quality products, ICAO is now
introducing world reference material in civil
aviation forecasting products.
This manual is based on first-hand information
collected from different air transport industry
stakeholders, including Contracting States.
This study is ICAO’s initial response to the market
demand and is the first in a series that will provide
data, analyses, and forecasts to all key players
of the civil aviation industry.
The first part of this study describes the
methodology. In the second part, future
air transport developments, including traffic,
movement and fleet growth forecasts are
described. Based on the underlying conditions
presented in the first two parts, personnel
requirements are introduced in the study for
three aviation personnel professions (pilots,
maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers).
An overview of each region’s particular situation,
including country case studies, is finally provided.
 Doc 9956

Doc 9956
ICAO Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts: Pilots s Maintenance Personnel s Air Traffic Controllers
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

999
 

University
 

Street,
 

Montréal,
 

Quebec
 


 

•
 


 

H3C
 

5H7
 


 

•
 


 

Canada
Tel.:
 

+1
 

514-954-8219
 


 

•
 


 

Fax:
 

+1
 

514-954-6077
www.icao.int

Global and Regional

20-year Forecasts
Pilots s Maintenance Personnel s Air Traffic Controllers
Published
 

in
 

separate
 

English,
 

Arabic,
 

Chinese,
 

 Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority
French,
 

Russian
 

and
 

Spanish
 

editions
 

by
 

the
INTERNATIONAL
 

CIVIL
 

AVIATION
 

ORGANIZATION

For
 

ordering
 

information
 

and
 

for
 

a
 

complete
 

listing
 

of
 

sales
 

agents
and
 

booksellers,
 

please
 

go
 

to
 

the
 

ICAO
 

website
 

at
 

www.icao.int
 



Doc
 

9956,
 

Global
 

and
 

Regional
 

20-year
 

Forecasts:
 


Pilots,
 

Maintenance
 

Personnel
 

and
 

Air
 

Traffic
 

Controllers
Order
 

Number:
 

9956
ISBN
 

978-92-9231-729-4

©
 

ICAO
 

2011

All
 

rights
 

reserved.
 

No
 

part
 

of
 

this
 

publication
 

may
 

be
 

reproduced,
 


stored
 

in
 

a
 

retrieval
 

system
 

or
 

transmitted
 

in
 

any
 

form
 

or
 

by
 

any
 


means,
 

without
 

prior
 

permission
 

in
 

writing
 

from
 

the
 

International
 


Civil
 

Aviation
 

Organization.