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YTC - Introduction to Trading -

Technical Analysis

Module 4: Chart Analysis


Part E: Support & Resistance

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Disclaimer

• Before commencing this course, please familiarize


yourself with the full disclaimer at the following
webpage:
http://www.yourtradingcoach.com/Disclaimer.html

• If you are unsure about the contents of the


disclaimer, please contact me via
support@YourTradingCoach.com

Disclaimer
• The information available on our website and any of our
products is GENERAL COMMENT ONLY, for the purposes of
information and education.

• We don't know you so any information we provide does not


take into account your individual circumstances, and
SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED ADVICE.

• Before investing or trading on the basis of our material, we


encourage you to first SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE with
regard to whether or not it is appropriate to your own
particular financial circumstances, needs and objectives.

© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Support

Price
movement

Support

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Support
• Support – An area below price which has the potential to halt and
possibly reverse any bearish price movement down into that area.

Support

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Resistance

Resistance Level

Price
movement

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Resistance
• Resistance – An area above price which has the potential to halt and
possibly reverse any bullish price movement up into that area.

Resistance
Level

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Change of Polarity
• Resistance becomes Support

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Change of Polarity
• Resistance becomes Support

Resistance Breakout

Support

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Change of Polarity
• Support becomes Resistance

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Change of Polarity
• Support becomes Resistance

Breakout

Resistance

Support

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

• The process used to identify S/R levels


• How many swing highs or lows are required to define a level?
• Is S/R an exact price level? How close is acceptable?
• What timeframe should we use?
• What can we do when there are too many levels?
• When should we remove the levels?
• Variations of the above

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

Identifying Support
• Look below current price
to identify:

– Approximately equal
swing lows that have not
yet been broken.

– Approximately equal
swing highs that have
been broken only once

(ie. Change of polarity)

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

Identifying Resistance
• Look above current
price to identify:

– Approximately equal
swing highs that have
not yet been broken.

– Approximately equal
swing lows that have
been broken only once

(ie. Change of polarity)

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

(Q) How many swing highs or


lows are required to confirm a
valid support or resistance
level?

(A) 2 swing highs or lows

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

(Q) Is S/R an exact price level? How close is acceptable?

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

(Q) What timeframe should we use?


(A) Trading Timeframe… or Higher Timeframe!

Common advice is to vary timeframes


by a factor of approximately five.

Trading Timeframe Higher Timeframe

Daily Weekly
4 Hour Daily
1 Hour 4 Hour or Daily
5 Min 30 Min
etc

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

(Q) What if there are too many levels?


(A) Select just the most obvious levels.

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Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

Q. When should we remove levels?


(A) Levels are removed once price has broken them twice with
no reaction.
After a second break
through the level, with
no reaction, the level is
removed from my chart.

No reaction (1) No reaction (2)

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

• The process used to identify S/R levels


• How many swing highs or lows are required to define a level?
• Is S/R an exact price level? How close is acceptable?
• What timeframe should we use?
• What can we do when there are too many levels?
• When should we remove the levels?
• Variations of the above

• Timeframe
• trading timeframe or
• higher timeframe

• Number of swing highs/lows


• If using the higher timeframe, many traders are comfortable
with one swing high/low at significant turning points.

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Strength/Weakness of S/R
• Factors Contributing to Strength/Weakness
– Time
• The longer a price level has
remained relevant as S/R, the
more significant it becomes, and
the stronger it is considered.

... Is not considered as significant nor


This level on a four hour chart, as strong as these weekly chart levels
tested over a one week period, tested several times over the last two
and valid for just under three years.
weeks total…

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Strength/Weakness of S/R
• Factors Contributing to Strength/Weakness
– Number of touches
• The more times price touches a level and bounces off it, the greater
the strength of that S/R level.

… is not considered as
relevant or strong as this
This level with only three level that had a total of
touches… seven touches over recent
days. (NB. Four more are to
the left of this chart.)

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Strength/Weakness of S/R
• Factors Contributing to Strength/Weakness
– Recency
• A recently formed level is considered more relevant, and stronger, than a
similar level formed a longer time ago.

This level formed only a fortnight ago


would be considered more relevant
than a similar level formed six months
ago (and not tested since).

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Strength/Weakness of S/R
• Factors Contributing to Strength/Weakness
– Volume
• Greater volume at an S/R level indicates greater participation by traders
at that level… and so increases the relevance and strength of the level.

Increases in volume on tests of the support level


indicate greater relevance and strength for this level.

Support

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Strength/Weakness of S/R
• Factors Contributing to Strength/Weakness
– Price behavior as it leaves the level
• Rapid price movement from an area, especially on strong volume,
indicates greater strength in the level, and greater likelihood of the level
holding when price again returns to the level.

Large range candles and increased


volume indicate a support level
(prior resistance) with greater
strength. We would expect this level
to hold should price return to it in
the near future.

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Strength/Weakness of S/R
• Factors Contributing to Strength/Weakness
– Time
– Number of touches
– Recency
– Volume
– Price behavior as it leaves the level

• Greater strength implies


– Greater confidence in the level holding
– Greater expected reaction should the level break

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How we use S/R
• Analysis
– Potential barriers to trend
– Potential targets for price trends

– “Higher timeframe S/R framework”

Resistance offers a potential barrier to our trend


Resistance offers a
potential target for
our trend

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


How we use S/R
• Trading
– Trade targets

– Trade entry & stop


placement: Trade target

 Level holding

• Test of the level


• Breakout failure

 Level Breaking

• Breakout
• Breakout
Pullback

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


How we use S/R
• Trading
– Trade targets
Test of S/R Trade Stop loss above resistance
– Trade entry & stop Trade entry short
placement:

 Level holding

• Test of the level


• Breakout failure

 Level Breaking

• Breakout
• Breakout
Pullback

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


How we use S/R
• Trading
– Trade targets
Stop loss above resistance
– Trade entry & stop Trade entry short
placement:

 Level holding Breakout Failure


• Test of the level
Trade
• Breakout failure

 Level Breaking

• Breakout
• Breakout
Pullback

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


How we use S/R
• Trading
– Trade targets
Breakout Trade Stop loss
– Trade entry & stop above
placement: resistance

 Level holding

• Test of the level Trade entry short


• Breakout failure

 Level Breaking

• Breakout
• Breakout
Pullback

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


How we use S/R
• Trading
– Trade targets

– Trade entry & stop Breakout Pullback Trade


placement:

 Level holding 1 = Breakout through S/R


2 = Pullback to S/R
• Test of the level
• Breakout failure 2
1
Trade entry long
 Level Breaking

• Breakout Stop loss below support


• Breakout
Pullback

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


How we use S/R
• Key question for both analysis and trading:

– (Q) How do we know whether a level will break or will hold?

– (A) Momentum analysis

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Examples – Identifying S/R

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Examples – Identifying S/R

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Examples – Identifying S/R

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Examples – Identifying S/R

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Examples – Identifying S/R

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Examples – Identifying S/R

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Examples
• Initial identification of S/R
• Marking up historical data
– Moving forward to examine subsequent interaction between price and S/R
– Studying Breakouts & Tests of S/R

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Examples – S/R & Price Interaction

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Examples – S/R & Price Interaction

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Examples – S/R & Price Interaction

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Examples – S/R & Price Interaction

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Examples – S/R & Price Interaction

Dropping to the smaller “trading”


timeframe allows you to analyse the
areas of S/R and price interaction.

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Examples – S/R & Price Interaction

Dropping to the smaller “trading”


timeframe allows you to analyse the
areas of S/R and price interaction.

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Swing Highs/Lows
– High of Day / Low of Day
– Gaps
– Opening Range
– Significant Reactions to News Events
– Round Numbers
– Pivot Points
– Fibonacci Ratios

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– High of Day / Low of Day

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– High of Day / Low of Day

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Swing Highs/Lows
– High of Day / Low of Day
– Gaps
– Opening Range
– Significant Reactions to News Events
– Round Numbers
– Pivot Points
– Fibonacci Ratios

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Gaps

Gap Support

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Swing Highs/Lows
– High of Day / Low of Day
– Gaps
– Opening Range
– Significant Reactions to News Events
– Round Numbers
– Pivot Points
– Fibonacci Ratios

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Opening Range
Highest
price of
first 5
minutes

Lowest Opening range


price of Opening range acts as support
first 5 acts as resistance
minutes

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Opening Range

Opening range acts as resistance

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Opening Range

Opening range acts as support

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Opening Range

Opening range
acts as resistance

Opening range acts as support

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Swing Highs/Lows
– High of Day / Low of Day
– Gaps
– Opening Range
– Significant Reactions to News Events
– Round Numbers
– Pivot Points
– Fibonacci Ratios

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Significant Reactions to News Events

08:30
Fri 5th April

• Non-Farm
Payroll
economic
release

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Price Action Based
– Significant Reactions to News Events

08:30
Fri 5th April

• Non-Farm
Payroll
economic
release

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Swing Highs/Lows
– High of Day / Low of Day
– Gaps
– Opening Range
– Significant Reactions to News Events
– Round Numbers
– Pivot Points
– Fibonacci Ratios

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Round Numbers

1.5200 round number level

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Swing Highs/Lows
– High of Day / Low of Day
– Gaps
– Opening Range
– Significant Reactions to News Events
– Round Numbers
– Pivot Points
– Fibonacci Ratios

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Pivot Points

Pivot Points:
• R2 = PP + (H – L) = 14839
High: 14753 • R1 = PP + (PP – L) = 14677
Low: 14505 • PP = (H+L+C)/3 = 14591
Close: 14515 • S1 = PP – (H – PP) = 14429
• S2 = PP – (H – L) = 14343

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Pivot Points

Open 17th April

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Swing Highs/Lows
– High of Day / Low of Day
– Gaps
– Opening Range
– Significant Reactions to News Events
– Round Numbers
– Pivot Points
– Fibonacci Ratios

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Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Fibonacci Ratios
100.0%

61.8%
50.0%
38.2%

23.6%

0.0%

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Homework
• Open your trading platform and explore…

– Current data
• Initial identification of S/R
• Marking up charts

– Historical data
• Mark up historical charts and then move forward in time to examine
the price interaction with these levels.
– Did the price hold or break the level. Study it. Consider printing it out and building a
database of levels that broke and levels that held. Build experience in reading price and
identifying the clues to potential break.
– Note as well how you would adjust the levels and when you would remove them.

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Summary

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Support
• Support – An area below price which has the potential to halt and
possibly reverse any bearish price movement down into that area.

Support

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Resistance
• Resistance – An area above price which has the potential to halt and
possibly reverse any bullish price movement up into that area.

Resistance
Level

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Change of Polarity
• Resistance becomes Support

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Change of Polarity
• Support becomes Resistance

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Identifying S/R & Marking Up Charts

• The process used to identify S/R levels


• How many swing highs or lows are required to define a level?
• Is S/R an exact price level? How close is acceptable?
• What timeframe should we use?
• What can we do when there are too many levels?
• When should we remove the levels?
• Variations of the above

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Strength/Weakness of S/R
• Factors Contributing to Strength/Weakness
– Time
– Number of touches
– Recency
– Volume
– Price behavior as it leaves the level

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How we use S/R
• Analysis
– Potential barriers to trend
– Potential targets for price trends

– “Higher timeframe S/R framework”

• Trading

– Trade targets

– Trade entry & stop placement:

 Level holding
– Test of the level
– Breakout failure

 Level Breaking
– Breakout
– Breakout Pullback

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Alternate Methods of S/R
• Alternate Methods of S/R
– Swing Highs/Lows
– High of Day / Low of Day
– Gaps
– Opening Range
– Significant Reactions to News Events
– Round Numbers
– Pivot Points
– Fibonacci Ratios

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© Copyright 2013. Lance Beggs. All Rights Reserved.


Advanced S/R Concepts
• How Support and Resistance are created.

• Signs of price strength or weakness on interaction with S/R

• Supply/Demand areas vs Support/Resistance areas

• Random levels vs Real levels

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Coming up next…

Module 4 – Chart Analysis


Part F: Charting Patterns - Macro

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Contact Details
• Lance Beggs

• Email:
support@yourtradingcoach.com

Thank You!

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