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Abstract- Electrical load is a major input factor in economic forecasting because of their simplicity. The most used in the
development. To support economic growth and meet the literature are regression model [1] [2] [3] [4] and support
demands in the future, the load forecasting has become a very vector regression (SVR) [5] [6] [7] [8]. The second is the
important task for electric power stations. Therefore, several
artificial intelligence techniques which are increasingly used in
techniques have been used to accomplish this task. In this study,
recent years because of their many advantages, and one of the
our interest is focused on the multiple regression approach,
especially, linear and exponential regression for medium-long
most widely used is artificial neural networks [9] [10] [11],
term load forecasting. The choice of this approach is due to the neuro-fuzzy systems [12] [13] [14] [15],etc.
lack of data does not allow us to use artificial intelligence
The aim of this paper is to present the methods of
approaches such as neural networks. In addition to the
regression approach, we used a system of electric load profile
regression, in addition to the system load profile for problem
that allows us to obtain the power has a smaller scale (hour, day, solving forecasting. The choice of these methods based on the
week) to get the peaks. Data that has been used in this work fact that the data we were given is not sufficient to allow us to
represent electric load consumption and were taken from the use other approaches such as neural networks, which are
Algerian national electricity company. heavily exploited. Regression analysis is one of the most
popular techniques for predictive modeling. The regression
Keywords-regression approaches; medium-long term models popularity can be attributed to the interpretation of the
forecasting; multiple linear regressions; multiple exponential model parameters and ease of use. However, the major
regressions.
conceptual limitation of all regression techniques is that one
I. INTRODUCTION
can only observe the relationship,but you can never be sure of
the causal mechanism underlying [16]. In our study, we are
Economic development depends directly on the availability interested in the multiple regression, more precisely, two
of electrical power,because most of industries depend entirely models of multiple regression, multiple linear regression and
on its use. The availability of a reliable source of energy is thus multiple exponential regression. Multiple linear regressions are
of paramount importance. Having an accurate prediction of the the one of linear regression analyses that used to analyze the
electrical load is very important for several reasons, including relationship between single response variable (dependent
the economy and security. Medium and long term Forecasting variable) with two or more controlled variables (independent
is a crucial input data for all studies of market development of variables). Multiple exponential regressions can be used to find
energy production and consumption. This is a step in the an equation that best fits the relationship between groups of
planning process of works energy, which determines the random variables. It assists in drawing conclusion about a set
investments involved and committed to making choices often of data. In addition to regression approach, we used load
irreversible on the number of centrals to develop or activate profile system to obtain power has a smaller scale (hour, day,
and the number of turbines and other sources of electricity week) to get peak power to meet the needs of extreme cases by
production to install for satisfy national and / or regional adjusting production.
demand.
The paper is organized as follows: in the second section,we
In fact, the national company of electricity, specializing in present a non-exhaustive related work. Both methods of linear
the electricity production has been interested in this area and and exponential multiple regression will be discussed in the
therefore provided us the data of the electric charge of several third section. In the fourth section, we present the load profile
years (from 2000 to 2010) required to the development of a that we used for the annual electrical energy. In the fifth
medium - long term forecasting models. section, we explain some experiments and results. Finally, a
To solve this problem, there are different methods of conclusion and some perspectives are discussed in the fmal
prediction which they can be classified into two categories; the section.
first is based on the mathematical and statistical methods.
II. RELATED WORK
Indeed, statistical models such as linear regression and
autoregressive model has been widely used in practice for load In developing countries where energy demand increases
more dynamic, load forecasting is even more important.
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Year
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/
140 000 /
120000
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.... 100 000 //
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60000
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40 000 /....
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o
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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
Year
\
... 4 ...
... 5 Daytype 2 � 24
�6
�7 DaytypeN Daytype 2 %
...
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...
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. ..
. ..
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5 DaytypeN
By multiplying the three percentages, we get the value of [5] W.C. Hong, "Chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm in a support
vector regression electric load forecasting model", Energy Conversion
the Day: January 1,2012 0:00 h. We will start this process for and Management,vol. 50,issue 1,pp. 105-117. Elsevier Ltd. July 2009.
every hour of the day. As a final result, we have a matrix
[6] W.C. Hong, Y. Dong, W.Y. Zhang, L.Y. Chen and B. K. Panigrahi,
containing all these values, which we will call profile matrix "Cyclic electric load forecasting by seasonal SVR with chaotic genetic
that will be used to ventilate a future annual value. algorithm", International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy
Systems,vol. 44,issue I,pp. 604--614. Elsevier Ltd. January 2013.
VI. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORKS [7] Z. Zhang and S. Ye, "Long term load forecasting and recommendations
for China based on support vector regression", International Conference
In this paper, we conducted two parts, one for the annual
on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial
electric energy forecasting to the national grid Algerian using Engineering,vol. 3,pp. 597-602, Shenzhen,november 2011
regression models. In the second part, we present the electric [8] D. Anguita, L. Ghelardoni and A Ghio, "Long-term energy load
load profile system that will get annual electric power using forecasting using auto-regressive and approximating support vector
the load factor deduced by the matrix of powers of each hour regression", IEEE International Energy Conference and Exhibition
of the day. After that, we ventilate the power in 8760 values (ENERGYCON),pp. 842- 847,Florence, september 2012
(number of hours in the year). Load profiles are editable and [9] A Ghanbari, ANaghavi, S.F. Ghader and M. Sabaghian, "Artificial
we can choose different profiles for different voltages, which neural networks and regression approaches comparison for forecasting
Iran's annual electricity load", International Conference on Power
makes our prediction at short-term (hour,day,week) dynamic. Engineering, Energy and Electrical Drives, pp. 675-679. IEEE Press,
In the future, we plan to predict the seasonality of a year in March 2009.
order to apply the annual fluctuations of the load to the load [10] J.e. Sousa, L.P. Neves and H.M. Jorge, "Assessing the relevance of load
profile to obtain the most realistic prediction. The results are profiling information in electrical load forecasting based on neural
satisfactory and have been approved by the Algerian national network models", International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy
electricity company within a national research project. Systems,vol. 40,issue 1,pp. 85-93. Elsevier Ltd. September 2012.
[11] H. Li, S. Guo,e. Li and 1. Sun, "A hybrid annual power load forecasting
We chose the regression model due to lack of data. model based on generalized regression neural network with fruit fly
However, there are other methods that can be applied in this optimization algorithm", Knowledge-Based Systems, vol. 37, pp. 378-
particular case, it is the Grey theory, it is suitable for load 387. Elsevier Ltd. January 2013.
forecasting [24] [25], because its principle is simple and the [12] T. Chen, "A collaborative fuzzy-neural approach for long-term load
forecasting in Taiwan", Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 63,
calculation is convenient in small sample. Our future research issue 3,pp. 663-670. Elsevier Ltd. August 2012.
concerning the application of this theory to our dataset to
[13] T. Chen and Y.C. Wang,"Long-term load forecasting by a collaborative
predict the Algerian electricity coming years and able to fuzzy-neural approach", Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 43,
compare with we have achieved. issue 1,pp. 454--464. Elsevier Ltd. December 2012.
[14] B. Akdemira and N. <;:etinkaya, "Long-term load forecasting based on
As another research perspective, we will use artificial
adaptive neural fuzzy inference system using real energy data", 2nd
neural networks (ANN) on a different data set that we will International Conference on Advances in Energy Engineering, Energy
soon be provided and will be large enough to allow us to Procedia,vol. 14,pp. 794-799. Elsevier Ltd. Bangkok,2011.
evaluate the performance of networks for long-term forecast [15] M.N. Maralloo, A R. Koushki, C. Lucas and A Kalhor, "Long term
of the Algerian electric load. electrical load forecasting via a neurofuzzy model", 14th International
CSI Computer Conference, pp. 35-40, IEEE Press, Tehran, October
ACKNOWLEDGMENT 2009.