Next Generation MPC – Where is Technology Headed?

Alex Kalafatis
Michael Harmse
John Campbell

AspenTech Product Management

8th CPC Conference

January 10th, 2017
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Aspen MPC Innovation Timeline
Early ‘90s Late ‘90s Early 2000’s Now

Increase Process Profitability with MPC – DMCplus

Maintain the Benefits of MPC – Aspen Watch etc.

Implement More Efficiently –

Integrated Aspen SmartStep etc.
Workflow

Automation of
knowledge DMC3

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Aspen MPC Innovation Timeline
DMCplus in  Structured Model ID
the Platform  Robust Control
Nonlinear MPC  Smart Tune
in the Builder Composite in  DMC3 Builder
State Space DMCplus the Platform
Controller Engine
Enhancements
Modern 2016
Colinearity Integrated
Detection Platform
2013 DMC3
2010
and Repair 2009
Nonlinear 2008  Calibrate Mode
Control  Model Quality
2006 Adaptive
Modeling Analysis – MQA
2005  Auto Slicing
Multivariable
2003 Step Testing  Auto ID
Performance Automation of
Monitoring 2002 Automated
knowledge
Testing
Inferential
Modeling 2000 Nonlinear
Inferential
1998 Modeling Maintain Benefits and implement more efficiently

90s DMCplus

Increase Process Profitability with Aspen MPC

80s [DMC]
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4
Automation of Knowledge Work

• The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) identified

“Automation of Knowledge Work” as the 2nd most
impactful disruptive technology area in the 2013 report
“Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform
life, business, and the global economy”

• MGI defines automation of knowledge work as “the

use of computers to perform tasks that rely on
complex analyses, subtle judgments, and creative
problem solving.”

• Enabling technologies
– computing technology
– machine learning
– natural user interfaces (such as speech recognition
technology)
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Automation of Manufacturing Workflows in Aspen MPC
DMC3: 3rd Generation DMCplus

Role Control/Process Engineer

Knowledge Automated model identification/ adaptation
Work Activity and controller configuration

Automated maintenance and update of

APC systems

Enabling • Automated plant perturbation

Technologies • Model generation
• Controller configuration
• Performance monitoring and
assessment
• Robust control

Assistants (wizards)
Automate complex analysis or workflow

Generate significant customer value

based on best
Reduce barrier to adoption or deployment practices or heuristics

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Model Identification: Evolution of Subspace ID Technology

• Subspace ID algorithms appeared in 1990s

 A set of new identification algorithms emerging since 1990’s
 Canonical Variate Analysis(CVA), Larimore,1990;
 Multivariable Output Error State sPace (MOESP), Verhaegen & Dewilde, 1992;
 Numerical Subspace State Space System Identification (N4SID),Van Overschee and De Moor, 1994;

• Subspace ID developments in closed-loop

– Pre-estimate Hf (Shi and MacGregor, 2001; Larimore, 2004)
– SIM via PCA (SIMPCA, Wang and Qin, 2002; Huang et al., 2005)
– SSARX (Jansson, 2003)
– Innovations estimation (Qin and Ljung, 2003)
– Whitening filter approach (Chiuso and Picci, 2004, 2005)
– Observer-Kalman filter ID (OKID, Juang and Phan, 1994)

• With its many advantages, Subspace ID Technology has matured and is the key for high fidelity
DMC models

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Genealogy of Aspen Identification Technology

2014
Constrained
Subspace ID**
Model Grade
2012 Model Structure
Adaptive MPC* carry-over**
2004
Closed-loop
DMCplus 6.0
Subspace ID
Subspace ID
Auto-data slicing*
Model Uncertainty
2001 Multi-Step* Calibrate**
DMCplus 4.1 BDN Nonlinear*
1998
Subspace ID
DMI (FIR ID) * US Patent grated
Smart-Step*
DMCplus 2.0 ** US Patent Pending

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Identification Workflow
Data Management
• Collection - Automatic
• Preparation: Auto-Slicing

Case Management
• Linearization Transforms
- Visual with Optimization capabilities
• Trial Creation - wizards
• Deadtime Identification
• Structure Specification - Constrained ID

Model Creation
• Model Assembly – Online/Remote
• Conditioning (Colinearity repair)
• Uncertainty / Frequency Response Analysis
• Model Quality Analysis Dashboard
- Online/Remote
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Traditional MPC Maintenance Challenges
Requires costly and disruptive step tests

Difficult to schedule plant tests

Non-intuitive MPC tools and workflows

Significant efforts and skills required to revamp controllers

LP/QP Tuning becomes challenging as number of variables increase

LP/QP Tuning must be updated after model, process or economics change

Iterative and time consuming process - Millions in benefits lost per site

- Low MPC utilization

- Manual reactive MPC maintenance

ONLINE - Increased technical and operational
staff workload
Model Excel Simulations
- Revamps are done every 4-5 years

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Reactive vs Preventive Maintenance Benefits
Typical Refinery Process Unit e.g. Crude Unit

≈ $10m

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Calibrate: 3rd Generation of Automated Step Testing
Optimizing Control while testing

Non-Invasive
Approach

The engineer decides the

trade-off between optimal
control and step testing

No operator intervention

Test Control

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 Optimizing Control during Calibrate Testing
• Cyan line represents the upper CV limit for LCNYLD
• Operators increased limit to try and get more LCN
• Calibrate followed changes without excessive constraint violations

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Calibrate – Preventative Maintenance
Continuous improvement: Maintain controllers for maximum benefits

• Maintenance becomes a built-in process not

a project
– Automated testing in closed loop Automated
– Closed-loop Model ID Testing
– Auto-slicing
– Economic Relaxation
– Model Quality Analysis
– Root Cause, Measures progress continuously Online
Automated
Analysis
Slicing

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DMC3 Automation of Knowledge: Smart Tune
Enhanced optimization algorithm

Eliminate complicated tuning by directly specifying objectives

Tuning wizard to effortlessly configure the optimizer

Provides visual view of the controller strategy online

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Traditional vs Calibrate Workflow
Project Start

Pretest Test Modeling Commissioning Monitoring Troubleshooting

• PID loop tuning • Supervised step • Data slicing • Open & closed • Plant/model • Correct
• Instrumentation testing • Identification loop testing mismatch mismatch
review • Data collecting • Tuning • Additional • Add constrains
• Design constrains • Fine tuning

3-4 months
Start generating MPC benefits after 3-4 months

Pretest Test (Calibrate mode) and monitoring Modeling Comm.

• PID loop tuning • Automated step testing • Fine • Open &

• Instrumentation review • Automated data collecting identificat closed
• Design • Automated data slicing ion loop
testing
• Historical data • Automated modeling
gathering • Fine
• Process optimization with a robust controller
Tuning
• Initial strategy and
‘seed’ model

3-4 weeks Start generating MPC benefits EARLY!

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3rd Generation of APC: Enables MPC Best Practices
Optimizing Control during non-disruptive background testing

Self-sustaining solutions and model adaptation to new operating conditions

Preventive maintenance is part of a continuous improvement process

Ability to revamp multiple process units simultaneously

Robust control action in the presence of model mismatch and disturbances

Ease of use, intuitive modeling workflows including LP/QP tuning

Performance management across the whole enterprise

MPC applications across all processes including secondary units

Low Cost of Ownership and maintenance

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Empowering Users
Self-sufficiency Across the MPC Lifecycle

Rapid Embedded Optimizing

Simplify Development workflows and while testing
usability automated High Fidelity
Preventive tools & wizards
Maintenance and Models

Automation of knowledge

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 MPC Remote Monitoring

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MPC Challenges: Chevron Upstream Presentation

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MPC Remote Monitoring: Chevron Presentation

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 Open Standards for Embedding Automation in
Distributed Control Systems

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Impact of IIoT on Distributed Control Systems
• IIoT are already having a huge impact on both asset
management and operations management applications.
– These include cloud hosting of operations management applications

• Many automation end users are already embracing

virtualization technology for the past few years

• Decoupling of applications from process automation systems

has started to happen. OPC UA provides the integration
between control systems and other applications.

• In parallel, efforts to decouple the DCS process I/O from

process controllers and develop more open system
architectures will enable independent hardware and software
components to interoperate with a minimum of customization.
ARC Report on DCS Global Market Analysis - 2016

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Open Process Automation™ Forum

• Consortium’s mandate is to develop a standard

architecture for these new open process
automation platforms
– Similar open architectures have been developed in the
aerospace industry

• To develop a new Operations Platform, i.e. a

new type of Level3 OT platform that will be
implemented using highly standardized IT-like
software and hardware, potentially using an on-
premise cloud platform which will make extensive
use of virtualization and of open source

• To develop a new electronic (DCN) equipment

dedicated to managing a single control loop in
Level1 ARC Insights – April 2016

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 Advanced Inferentials - Advanced Analytics

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Analytics Value Matrix

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Column Analytics
Runtime View: Early Detection of Probable Flooding Event

Increase set point control of

Demethanizer bottom stream

Incipient Flood risk increased

Probable incipient Flood in stripping section in 2 hours. Demethanizer bottoms too rich in
methane. Increase set point control of Demethanizer by 2 deg C.

Probable Flood event in C2Splitter in 1 hr time: methane

leakage in Demethanizer bottom stream detected

Probability of Event Occurring

Time to Event in minutes

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Prescriptive Analytics
Ensemble model for Column Analytics

Feed Estimator

Rules Alerts
1st Principle
Model

Column Hydraulics

Data Conditioning Empirical Model

Pattern Model
Root Cause Model
Historian
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Prescriptive Maintenance

Symptom Analysis

Diagnosis

Consideration of Treatments

Prescription for Action

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Prescriptive Maintenance by

Autonomous Agents™

Each one interprets every failure

signal, every minute of the day
…forever – and tells you what will
happen, when, and how to avoid it

Agents embed learning, adaptive, big data, predictive, and prescriptive action
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 Many Agents per Asset

Failure Agent 001

Anomaly Agent Knows precise signature of patterns
Knows all learned patterns leading to bearing failure
matching all normal operating states

Failure Agent 002

Knows precise signature of patterns leading
to drive coupling failure Failure Agent 003+
Many other agents assigned to detect
exact failure patterns

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Sensors On & Around Equipment
Equipment
Boundary

Upstream
Process Sensors

Sensors “on and around machines” Process Sensors Machine Sensors

ensure agents alert root cause of issues e.g. Press, Temp, Level, e.g., Vibrations
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Flow…
Advanced Analytics – Synergy with MPC
Pattern Matching – Data mining – Data autoslicing

Collaboration work with Prof. Eamonn Keogh, University of California

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 Batch APC

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 Vision

Partial Least-Squares for Batch-wise Unfolded Data

• Models the time varying covariance structure among all the process variables over the entire time
history of the batch
– Different model weights on each variable for every time period
– Average non-linear trajectory for each time-varying variable is subtracted off before modeling
– Effectively provides a non-linear model of the transient, time-varying batch behavior

• Relates initial conditions (Z) and time-varying trajectory information (X) to final batch outcomes (Y)
• Entire time history summarized by few latent variables in well-conditioned model space
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 Vision

Batch Alignment
• Need to handle batch-to-batch variation in
execution speed for different phases or entire
batch

• Various methods are available

• Perform alignment at key decision points for

batch control

• Solve the QP problem

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Fortune 100 Specialty Foods Manufacturer

• Over 1 million batches processed

• Close to 100% uptime when sensors

maintained

• Standard deviation in key quality attributes

reduced by 50%

• Productivity boost of 20%

• Operator involvement reduced by 80%

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 Active Areas of Research
- Synergies with Academia

Bringing Research to Practice and Practice to Research

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 Vision
Bringing Research to Practice and Practice to Research
Areas for Potential Collaboration
• Integration of MPC with Advanced Analytics
– Machine Learning in developing “seed” models from historical data
– Variable & constraint selection for controller design through data mining

• Nonlinear MPC

• Templating and embedding MPC solutions

• Coordination of Scheduling with MPC

• Plant-wide Dynamic Optimization

• Integration of Rigorous Dynamic Models with MPC

• Cloud hosting of Operations Management applications

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