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1. Introduction from maximum roof deformation. However, the approach and re-
sults presented in this paper use generic MDOF system to estimate
Prediction of collapse potential of structures under earth- the collapse capacity of buildings that is different from the afore-
quake loads has always been a crucial aspect of earthquake en- mentioned studies in which an equivalent SDOF system is utilized
gineering. Collapse potential can be employed as a key deci- to estimate the collapse capacity.
sion parameter for engineers to design new structures and also Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) has been introduced as a
to evaluate seismic performance of existing ones when sub- procedure developed for accurate estimation of seismic behavior
jected to earthquakes. Accurate collapse prediction is impor- of structures through collapse, provided that deterioration of
tant since collapse of structural systems is the primary source structural components is accurately captured in the mathematical
of life and monetary losses during and after an earthquake [1]. model of the structure. An incremental dynamic analysis requires
There are several analytical methods currently available to as- performing a series of nonlinear time-history analyses in which the
sess the collapse capacity of structures under earthquake ground scale factors of selected ground motions are gradually increased
motions [2–4]. These methods are representative of various an- until the collapse capacity of the structure is reached. In the
alytical approaches such as simplification of the whole struc- context of this paper collapse is associated with a sidesway mode
ture to an equivalent single-degree-of-freedom system [5–9], use in which a story or a number of stories of a structure displace
of a step-by-step finite-element analysis of the whole structure sufficiently laterally and P–Delta effects accelerated by component
for detection of abrupt structural response increase [10–12] and deterioration fully offset the first story shear resistance. As a result,
recently emerged incremental dynamic analysis [13–17]. The work dynamic instability occurs and the structural system loses its
presented in this paper is particularly analogous to the approach gravity load resistance.
used to develop ‘‘SPO2IDA’’ [18] based on SDOF systems to approx- Although IDA has become a common analysis method for re-
imate MDOF system response and the research by Chou [19] that searchers who are interested in determining the seismic vulner-
uses a closed-form equation to estimate median collapse capacity ability and collapse capacity of structures under extreme loads,
this method has not been so popular among structural engineers
for actual buildings. The reason is that the IDA method requires a
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 949 394 3393. large number of nonlinear response-history analyses of the struc-
E-mail address: behrouz.shafei@uci.edu (B. Shafei). ture using a set of representative ground motions, each scaled
0141-0296/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2010.12.028
1108 B. Shafei et al. / Engineering Structures 33 (2011) 1107–1116
a b
Fig. 1. Schematic representation of 4-story generic moment-resisting frames (Left) and generic shear walls (Right) based on [1].
to many intensity levels covering the entire range of structural in generic structures. Ranges of variation of different structural
response [20]. Recognizing the technical difficulties of the IDA parameters have been determined based on experimental studies
method including (1) selection of appropriate ground motions for that are comprehensively described and referenced in [22]. Fig. 1
different seismic zones and hazard levels, (2) realistic interpreta- shows a schematic representation of 4-story generic moment-
tion of dynamic response of a structure and (3) time consuming resisting frames and generic shear walls.
computational efforts required to conduct IDA, this paper proposes As it can be seen in Fig. 1(a), the generic moment-resisting
approximate relationships for collapse capacity prediction of reg- frames are 3-bay frames with story heights h = 12 ft and each
ular buildings by utilizing simple nonlinear static (pushover) anal- bay width equal to 36 ft. Three different values for the first mode
ysis method and by considering the number of stories and natural period, T1 , are defined for the generic frames as a function of
period of the structural system. number of stories. These values are 0.10N , 0.15N, and 0.20N,
In this study, two types of structural systems are considered. representing different lateral stiffness values of a moment frame
The first one is moment-resisting frames and the second one is with a given number of stories, N. For each fundamental period,
shear walls. Both structural systems are subjected to IDA using a set three values for yield base shear coefficient, γ , are considered in
of 40 large-magnitude–small-distance ground motions in order to this study. The values of γ are obtained by dividing a typical design
determine their dynamic collapse capacity [15]. On the other hand, response spectrum at the 10/50 hazard level for the Los Angeles
both types of structural systems are analyzed using the pushover area on soil type D by three values of Rµ . Designed Rµ values are
analysis method to identify their nonlinear static response in terms equal to 1.5, 3.0, and 6.0, and as a result, the reduced design spectra
of yielding, plastic, and ultimate drift ratios. Based on statistical represent the yield base shear coefficient, γ = Vy /W , for each of
evaluation of obtained results from dynamic and static analyses, selected Rµ values (Fig. 2).
the best-fitted first-order regression models are proposed for In generic frames, the floor mass is the same at all floor levels,
relating both structural characteristics and pushover parameters to and the story stiffness varies along the height of each generic
the expected median collapse capacity of the structural systems. By frame such that a straight line deflected shape is obtained when
employing the generated relationships, dynamic collapse capacity the ASCE 7-05 lateral load pattern is applied to the frames. To
can be simply estimated based on information obtained from a incorporate the effect of foundation flexibility and the fact that
pushover analysis of the structure. many buildings have a taller first story compared to other stories,
For accurate collapse prediction, it is also important to consider springs with finite stiffness and strength are assigned at the bases
characteristics of ground motions that may affect the dynamic of the columns. The stiffness properties of these springs are tuned
structural response. A value that quantifies the effect of a ground such that the inflection point in the first story columns is at the
motion on a structure is called an intensity measure (IM). The mid-height of the story. It is assumed that stiffness and strength of
spectral acceleration at the first mode period of a structure, Sa (T1 ), all structural elements are proportional, and the variation of beam
has been proven as a widely acceptable IM. Recent studies by and column strength along the height of generic frame is identical
Baker and Cornell [21] have shown that a significant difference to the variation of stiffness, which has been tuned to the design
can be observed among the dynamic responses of a structure lateral load pattern [17].
analyzed using a set of ground motions all with the same Sa (T1 ). The strong-column weak-beam design philosophy is consid-
Baker and Cornell [21] have demonstrated that the vector-valued ered in design of generic structures. The column to beam strength
IM of Sa (T1 ) and ε is a more precise representation for ground factor is assumed equal to 2.4 for exterior columns and 1.2 for inte-
motion intensity compared to the scalar value of Sa (T1 ). As a result, rior columns. This factor affects the sequence of plastic hinging of
the effect of the ε parameter of ground motions is considered in the structural system, therefore, the simplified method presented
this paper in order to improve collapse estimation relationships. in this work for estimation of collapse capacity of buildings is not
Two case study buildings are used to validate the proposed suited for building that do not comply by the strong-column weak-
relationships for simplified collapse estimation. It is demonstrated beam philosophy.
that the developed relationships can predict the collapse capacity The analytical models used for plastic hinge locations in
of structures well with an acceptable level of error in prediction. structural components of generic frames include both monotonic
and cyclic strength and stiffness deterioration. The backbone curve
2. Generic structural systems for stiffness and strength of generic frames is illustrated in Fig. 3.
Cyclic deterioration of strength and stiffness is based on a reference
In order to predict the collapse capacity of regular structures, hysteretic energy dissipation capacity, Et = λMy θp , where λ is a
simple mathematical models of structural systems denoted as parameter that is estimated using experimental results [3,22]. For
‘‘generic structures’’ are used in this study. The generic structures base case generic frames plastic hinge rotation capacity, θp , post-
have been categorized as: generic moment-resisting frames (de- capping rotation capacity ratio, θpc /θp , and cyclic deterioration
noted as MRF) and generic shear walls (denoted as SW). Based on parameter, λ, of beams and columns are set to 0.03, 5.0, and 20,
the number of stories, N, equal to 4, 8, and 12, the generic struc- respectively. For moment-resisting frames the three component
tures are representative of low-, medium-, and high-rise buildings, deterioration parameters θp , θpc /θp , and λ are varied individually
respectively. The generic structures are two-dimensional and their as θp = 1%, 3%, and 6%, θpc /θp = 1.0, 5.0, and 15.0, and λ = 10,
components consist of elastic elements with rotational springs at 20, and 50. The range of deterioration parameters used in
their ends. It is assumed that flexural nonlinear behavior is concen- this research is obtained based on two databases of structural
trated at the ends of beams and columns, and also none of struc- components. The first one is on reinforced concrete components
tural components are shear critical, i.e., shear failure is not modeled developed by Berry et al. [23] and calibrated by Haselton et al. [24]
B. Shafei et al. / Engineering Structures 33 (2011) 1107–1116 1109
Response Spectrum
1.2
Design Response
1.0
R = 1.5
R = 3.0
0.8
R = 6.0
Sa(T)/g
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Period (sec)
Fig. 2. Design response spectrum for Rµ values equal to 1.5, 3.0, and 6.0 in order to calculate the yield base shear coefficient, γ , based on the fundamental period of generic
structures.
5.0
Probability of Collapse
0.8
4.0
0.6
Sa(T)/g
3.0
0.4
2.0
1.0 0.2
0.0
0.0
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00
Maximum Roof Drift Ratio (RDR) Sa(T)/g
Fig. 4. Incremental dynamic analysis of a 4-story moment-resisting frame
Fig. 5. Collapse fragility curve of the 4-story moment-resisting frame obtained
subjected to the set of 40 ground motions in order to get the dynamic collapse
from the IDA results shown in Fig. 4.
capacity.
Table 1 Table 3
Coefficients of collapse prediction relationships (Eq. (1)) obtained from multivariate Coefficients of the collapse prediction relationships considering the effect of epsilon
regression analysis for generic moment-resisting frames. parameter obtained from multivariate regression analysis for generic moment-
resisting frames.
4-story 8-story 12-story All
4-story 8-story 12-story
z0 1.80 2.27 2.49 2.73
z1 −2.30 −4.54 −5.61 −3.65 c0 2.92 3.77 3.84
z2 1.76 2.75 3.56 2.26 c1 −1.60 −4.77 −6.01
z3 0.35 0.48 0.56 0.61 c2 0.67 0.59 0.56
z4 0.27 0.16 0.13 0.27 c3 0.29 0.44 0.47
R2 0.87 0.94 0.95 0.93 c4 0.19 0.15 0.10
R2 0.90 0.97 0.97
Table 2
Coefficients of collapse prediction relationships (Eq. (1)) obtained from multivariate distance, R. Reviewing the variation of collapse capacity with
regression analysis for generic shear walls. respect to epsilon parameter, it is concluded that the epsilon
4-story 8-story 12-story All parameter should be considered as one of the ground motion
z0 4.25 5.40 5.57 5.02 characteristics that affect the predicted collapse capacity of
z1 −7.28 −14.59 −22.27 −14.55 structural systems used in this study.
z2 0.81 0.59 0.94 0.89 In order to consider the effect of ground motion characteris-
z3 0.66 0.77 0.72 0.72 tics on collapse capacity estimation of structural systems, the re-
z4 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.22
R2 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.86
gression models proposed in the previous section for simplified
collapse prediction are updated such that the models incorporate
the epsilon parameter as one of input independent variables. This
order of 0.4–0.5 is assigned to the later uncertainty. It is improvement helps structural engineers to come up with more ac-
evident that the dispersion in the regression parameter, r, is of curate collapse estimation considering the epsilon parameter in
epistemic nature. Assuming a total of M sources of epistemic un- addition to the pushover parameters and structural characteristics.
certainty with dispersions equal to (βUC )i , the total variability in The value of epsilon for a specific site can be determined by disag-
estimation of collapse capacity of a structural system, βTOT , can be gregation of the ground motion hazard and Eq. (3) can be employed
calculated using Eq. (2) [1]. to estimate the collapse capacity of a structural system,
ln(η̂c ) = c0 + c1 (αT ) + c2 (γ ) + c3 ln(Θpl )
M
−
βTOT = βRC
2
+ (βUC )2i . (2) Θpc
i=1 + c4 ln − m × ε. (3)
Θpl
Based on the scatter plot of epsilon value versus collapse
6. Effect of ground motion characteristics capacity for different structural systems using the set of 40 ground
motions (see Fig. 8), it is found that a straight line with the slope
According to recent findings on effects of different ground mo- of m can be fitted to all the points. This line has almost similar
tion characteristics on structural response [21,32,33], it is impor- slope values in different cases, and as a result, the median of m
tant to consider other properties of a ground motion for seismic values (Fig. 9) can be employed to predict collapse capacity with
response evaluation of the structural systems. Spectral accelera- an acceptable accuracy. Coefficients ci from Eq. (3) are summarized
tion at the predominant period of the structure is now commonly in Tables 3 and 4 for generic moment-resisting frames and shear
used as an effective and practical parameter for intensity mea- walls, respectively. In summary, the probability of collapse for a
sure, but it should be noted that considerable difference still ex- given level of intensity (i.e. given level of spectral acceleration at
ists among the seismic responses of a given structure to a set of first mode period that corresponds to a probability of exceedance
ground motions all scaled to a fixed spectral acceleration, Sa (T1 ). in certain years) can be predicted approximately by using the
This fact shows that complementary parameters should be taken median collapse capacity as computed from the pushover analysis
into account in order to decrease record-to-record variability. For assuming standard deviation of 0.40. Historically the record-to-
this purpose, a vector-valued intensity measure has been proposed record variability was quantified to be relatively constant and
by Baker and Cornell [21] that consists of two parameters instead of equal to 0.40 [36,24,13,3,16,1,17] and a lognormal distribution
traditional single-valued intensity measures. The new parameter is assumed to be a representative distribution to the spectral
which is called epsilon, ε , can be used as an indicator of the shape of acceleration intensities that cause collapse. The latter has been
the response spectrum. The epsilon value can be calculated by sub- also verified with a Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) goodness-of-fit
tracting the mean predicted value of ln Sa (T1 ), computed using a test. However, the modeling uncertainties cannot be incorporated
ground motion prediction (attenuation) equation, from the ground directly to quantify the probability of collapse but the approximate
motion record’s ln Sa (T1 ) and dividing by logarithmic standard de- method for estimating the median collapse capacity of moment-
viation as estimated by the selected prediction equation [34]. resisting frames and shear walls can be combined with the method
For evaluation of sensitivity of collapse capacity, ηC , of moment- suggested in FEMA P695 [36] that quantifies the record-to-record
resisting frames and shear walls to the epsilon parameter, the variability and modeling uncertainties.
values of ε for the LMSR ground motions have been computed
using the spectral acceleration prediction equations proposed by 7. Application and case study
Boore et al. [35] (denoted here as BJF-97). The effect of ε on
the median collapse capacity obtained from BJF-97 equations In order to evaluate the accuracy of proposed collapse capacity
is illustrated in Fig. 8 for selected structural systems under estimation relationships, two case study buildings have been
consideration. In this figure, each point represents the Sa (T1 ) selected and studied. Both case studies comprise steel moment-
associated with the collapse spectral acceleration for a certain resisting frames whose behavior under heavy seismic excitation
ground motion, and the corresponding ε value obtained for that (i.e., near collapse) was tested in laboratory environment. Due
ground motion using BJF-97 equation given magnitude, M, and to lack of similar tests for shear walls, especially those with
B. Shafei et al. / Engineering Structures 33 (2011) 1107–1116 1113
Median of m
c0 5.12 5.64 5.79
c1 −8.29 −13.61 −16.11
c2 0.26 0.29 0.50 0.300
c3 0.71 0.71 0.62
c4 0.23 0.19 0.23
R2 0.93 0.97 0.81
0.250
0.200
0 4 8 12 16
Number of Stories
Standard Deviation of m
0.070
0.065
0.060
0 4 8 12 16
Fig. 8. Effects of ε parameter on the median collapse capacity obtained from BJF-97
Number of Stories
equations for a 4-story generic frame with T = 0.40 s.
0.20
Base Shear/Weight
0.15
0.10
0.00
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10
Normalized Roof Drift Ratio (Δroof/H)
0.80
0.60
Fig. 13. Basic dimensions of Kajima building model; the Japanese 15-story frame.
0.40
an equivalent single-degree-of-freedom system (Eq.SDOF). This
0.20 system has been determined based on ASCE 41 [29] guidelines
using the pushover shown in Fig. 11. The median collapse capacity
0.00 of the 4-story structure that is obtained using the SPO2IDA
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 approach is 1.17g; hence the proposed method suggested in this
Spectral Acceleration, Sa(T1)/g paper can predict the median collapse capacity of the steel moment
frame with smaller error. According to FEMA P440A [40], the
Fig. 12. Empirical fragility curve of the prototype EW 4-story moment-resisting maximum strength of a frame structure prior to its lateral dynamic
frame.
instability can be quantified by a median targeted strength ratio
(Rdi ) based on the pushover curve of the frame (see [40]). For the
uncertainties, [1]), one can find βTOT as follows:
4-story steel moment frame discussed in this section, Rdi = 5.47.
This corresponds to a median collapse capacity of 1.09g, which is
βTOT = 0.42 + 0.52 = 0.64. (8)
close to SPO2IDA discussed earlier in this paper. This is attributed
The probability of collapse at a given level of ground motion hazard to the fact that both SPO2IDA and FEMA P440A approaches have
can be computed using a lognormal distribution with a median been developed from SDOF systems.
of 1.33g and a dispersion of 0.64. For example, the probability The second case study building used in this paper is a 15-
of collapse for Sa /g = 0.67 that corresponds to the spectral story moment-resisting steel frame part of the structural system
acceleration at 1.32 s for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years of a 15-story office building designed from Kajima Corporation
using a uniform hazard spectrum, is equal to 13.5%. Using the FEMA based on recent Japanese seismic provisions. The story heights
P695 [36] methodology to obtain the total uncertainty, the same and bay widths of the frame are shown in Fig. 13. The 15-story
probability can be computed. Based on [36] the total uncertainty is steel moment-resisting frame is constructed using tubular cross
given by, sections, which is typical for Japanese design practice. For the
dynamic analysis described later 2% Rayleigh damping is assumed
βTOT = βRTR
2
+ βDR
2
+ βTD
2
+ βMDL
2
(9) at the first and third mode period of the structure (T1 = 1.99 s and
T3 = 0.39 s). Details about the design of this building can be found
in which, βRTR = 0.39 (record-to-record variability for systems in [3].
with ductility less than 3.0), βDR = 0.1 (variability due to supe- The nonlinear pushover curve based on the first mode load
rior design requirements), βTD = 0.2 (variability due to quality of pattern of the 15-story frame structure is illustrated in Fig. 14.
test data) and βMDL = 0.2 (variability due to quality of modeling). As seen from the same figure, the structure attains zero lateral
Eq. (9) gives, βTOT = 0.49. It should be noted that for the quality resistance at about 4.5% roof drift based on static pushover analysis.
of experimental data ‘‘superior’’ category rating has been assumed Other related values are obtained from the idealized trilinear
for illustration purposes of the FEMA P695 [36] methodology. This pushover curve shown in Fig. 14. For dynamic analysis, the set of
quality rating would be warranted if more test data were available. 40 ground motions described earlier in this paper are utilized to
For single test data a lower rating is suggested. Assuming a log- conduct IDA through collapse. Based on IDA curves the collapse
normal distribution with median 1.33g and a standard deviation fragility curve of the Japanese 15-story structure is developed and
of 0.49 we can estimate the probability of collapse given a hazard shown in Fig. 15. Based on this curve the median collapse capacity
level. In this case the probability of collapse is 8%, which is in line of the frame structure is 1.30g.
with what is recommended by FEMA P695 as the acceptable prob- A procedure similar to the first case study building described
ability of collapse with 20% and 10% probability of exceedance at earlier is followed in order to obtain the median collapse capacity
the MCE event. of the 15-story Japanese frame based on the simplified collapse
SPO2IDA [18] has also been utilized to directly connect capacity methodology. Fig. 14 is used to extract the parameters
the static pushover (SPO) curve and the results of IDA using needed for Eq. (1). Eqs. (10) through (13) are used to illustrate the
B. Shafei et al. / Engineering Structures 33 (2011) 1107–1116 1115
Pushover Curve of Japanese 15-Story Frame Similar to the 4-story steel moment frame discussed in the
0.30
previous section of the paper, the SPO2IDA [18] and FEMA
0.25 P440A [40] approaches have been applied to the 15-story steel
moment frame. Using SPO2IDA the median collapse capacity of
Base Shear/Weight
0.20 the 15-story steel moment frame is 1.88g. Similarly, the target
0.15 strength ratio Rdi = 7.38, which corresponds to a median collapse
capacity of 1.76g. Again in this case the simplified methodology for
0.10 predicting the median collapse capacity of steel moment-resisting
Θpl = 0.015 Θpc = 0.055 frames gives improved estimates compared to [40,18].
0.05
0.00 8. Conclusions
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
Normalized Roof Drift Ratio (Δroof/H) This paper presents a methodology for estimation of collapse
capacity of structural systems using nonlinear static (pushover)
Fig. 14. Pushover curve of the Japanese 15-story frame. analysis. The authors understand the approximations involved in
estimating the collapse potential of structural systems. Further-
Collapse Fragility Curve for Japanese 15-Story Frame more, it is known that nonlinear static analysis has limited ca-
1.00 pability in demonstrating the dynamic behavior of a structure as
Probability of Exceedance
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