Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1. Prologue
2. Pillar1: Banks & NBFCs
3. Pillar2: Budget / Public Finance
4. Pillar3: Balance of Payment & International Trade
5. Pillar4: Sectors of Economy
4A: Agriculture
4B & C: Mfg & Service Sector
4D: GDP [ES18v1c1 and v2c1]
4F: Inflation
6. Pillar5: Infrastructure & Environment
Environment
7. Pillar6: HDI
HDI: Education
HDI: Health
HDI: Gender empowerment
HDI: “Ease of Living”
8. Conclusion: Modi government & Indian Economy
Prologue
Since many aspirants will be facing interviews of UPSC / GPSC and other state PCS
exams in February-March, therefore I’ve quickly assembled a summary of budget
and economic survey for their reference, before I begin my lecture series in a
systematic manner.
Haste makes waste, so I don’t claim this article being ‘best’ among my products. It
covers following areas:
Economic Survey volume1 (entirely-but I’ve written only interview-related important
points here).
Economic Survey volume2 (only first chapter. Because rest of the chapters are
mostly data-tables for last years’ economic events. That much information overload =
bad cost:benefit for interview prep.)
Budget-2018: Major announcements covered.
FREE Download Links for Budget & Economic Survey documents: English | Hindi
In this summary, I’ve not written full forms or given background theory-connectives, because
the target audience is Interview candidates. They should be well aware of that…. if not, then
watch my BES17 Lecture series again.
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इस बार कु छ खास नया माल नही है. CEA Arvind Subramanian is neither repeating many old things, nor proposing new things.
ES18v1c3: After 2000, India’s savings and investment rates falling :-(
For Mobilizing saving (into financial instruments): we’ve done: demonetization,
drive against black money.
For mobilizing Investment: we’ve done FDI, Ease of Doing Biz, Bank
recapitalization, I&B Code. But we must focus more on attracting investment, for 8-
10% GDP growth rate.
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ES18v1c1: crony socialism to stigmatized capitalism:
Twin Balance sheet Syndrome (TBS), Infosys-TATA board battles. Greater demand
for state intervention.
TBS: Banks reluctant to lend. Many PSBs making losses in past 3 years.
Recapitalization increases fiscal deficit. I&B work in progress, FRDI bill proposed.
Presently Stock price boom but when it’s corrected there could be capital outflow.
Domestic investors will get angry because 1) gold is unattractive 2) Post-
demonetization FD rates down. If then to appease middle-class if government hikes
the Small Savings Schemes interests before election then Fiscal deficit targets will be
missed :-(
4A: Agriculture
Farm loan target: 11 lakhs (Last year 10 lakhs). Lessee cultivators will be covered.
2x farm income by 2022 ke liye 1.5 x MSP. FCI’s working capital to be raised via debt
& equity for this.
GrAM gramin haats. Because small-marginal farmers can’t bring their produce to
APMC / E-NAM. These GrAM haats will be connect via PM Gram Sadak Yojana.
Organic farming ke liye Women SHG.
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Op. Greens for Tomato Onion Potato (TOP). National Bamboo Mission. (Bamboo
already removed from the legal definition of ‘trees’ to reduce inspector-raj.)
Fishermen and Animal Husbandry-walla to get Kisan Credit card and new funds.
Farmers to sell surplus electricity from solar panels in their farms to DISCOMMs.
RURAL Infra ke liye: SBM ,Ujjawala, Saubhagya electricity, PM Awas Yojana, PM
Krishi Sinchai yojana, NRLM … all these schemes’ funds and targets increased.
Total rural infra Expenditure: 14 lakh crores.
ES18v1c6: For both for economic and social development, people need to be moved
out of farms and villages. (Sir Arthur Lewis and Dr. Ambedkar).
Extreme weather events affect agro. climate impact is twice on unirrigated farms than
irrigated.
With higher temperature and shorter rainfall: income fall- 15-18% (irrigated), 20-25%
(unirrigated).
Just like GST, we need cooperative federalism against Agricultural distress.
Or, as BASANTI would put it: “रहेने वाले सहेर के हो, लेिकन समजदार हो! #Pro-Rural-Budget-2018”
Positive observations
2017-18: 6.75% growth rate. Per capita income: 1,11,782 Rupees (Current price) |
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86,660/- @constant price (2011). IIP improved.
2018-19: Growth rate projected at 7 to 7.5% [+0.5% if exports pickup.]
Moderate level of inflation, CAD, FD.
IMF: Post-GFC recovery is occurring in major economies. Indian economy is now 2.5
trillion dollar economy – seventh largest in the world.
World Bank Ease of Doing Biz 2018: 130->100th rank.
Moody Rating: BAA3->BAA2.
Global Innovation Index-2017: 66->60.
Forex reserve at $409 cr.
Negative observations
2016 vs 2017: While most sectors recorded positive growth, but Agro ~5% -> 2.1%
Pre-GFC boom catalysts were 1) private investment 2) exports, but both are not upto
picking up at present.
“economic convergence,” whereby poorer countries have grow faster than richer
countries and closed the gap in standards of living. Since 80s, India began catching
up. But this has not resulted into labour shifting from agro to mfg, unlike Japan and
S.Korea. Now, 4 challenges:
1. Anti-globalization
2. structural transformation and pre-mature deindustrialization
3. HR-challenges (ASER, Skill Development)
4. Climate changes hurting agro.
Post-demonetization: less cash economy, growth is recovered but not to full
potential.
Global hunger report: India very poor performer.
RESIDEX: house-prices inflation in majority of the cities, even Post-Demonetization.
4F: Inflation
OPEC-Russia Oil cut deal: 12% hike in oil prices expected in 2018. If hike is passed
on, there will be inflation. RBI’s 2-4% CPI target already breached on Dec’17 (5.2%).
Fiscal Deficit to aggravate when there are excise-cuts to absorb oil price hike before
election.
CAD also increasing due to oil prices.
Environment
GOBAR-DHAN: Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan for management
and conversion of cattle dung and solid waste in farms to compost, fertilizer, bio-gas
and bio-CNG.
Burning Crop residue = Delhi pollution. So, funds & Subsidy for neighboring states’
farmers.
Namami Gange, Villages made ODF free. (although nothing major-new)
Pillar6: HDI
HDI: Education
DIKSHA portal to upgrade teachers’ skill. Because we’ve enrolled kids under RTE but
their learning outcomes have not improved (ASER).
More Ekalavya Residential schools for ST kids.
“RISE” scheme to promote research in Higher education institutes
PM Research Fellow Scheme for B.Tech so they do PHD and teach on weekly
basis.
ES18v1C8: talks about Importance of Science Tech in national development. India’s
achievement so far. But we are underspending on R&D. Brain-drain, Patent delays,
Basic research neglected. Problems remedies given in the chapter, self study it for
GSM3 & Essay.
HDI: Health
‘‘Ayushman Bharat”: For improving primary, secondary and tertiary care system.
Both prevention and health promotion.
National Health Protection Scheme: Rs.5 lakh cover per poor family per year for
secondary and tertiary care hospitalization. (This will be world’s largest scheme).
1. Agro: Soil health card, Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana(PMKSY), Fasal
Bima
2. Mfg: Make in India programme, Start-up India and Intellectual Rights Policy. Anti-
dumping on Chinese gods; PM Mudra yojana for MSME.
3. Labour: 38 Acts-> 4 codes.
4. Infra: BHARATMALA, SAGARMALA, BHARATNET, UDAN. Rail budget merged.
5. Electricity: Ujjawal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY), DD Gram Jyoti,
Saubhagya(Pradhan Mantri Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana), was launched in September
2017 to ensure electrification of all remaining willing households in the country in
rural and urban areas. Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: LPG connection to BPL. Then
Ujjawala plus+ Yojana for poor not under SECC.
6. Girls: BBBP, Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana. Health: SBM.
7. Intl cooperation: SDG adopted, Voluntary national review given in 2017, Intl. Solar
Alliance, Paris agreement ratified.
For Government jobs interviews, these much information should be at your lips. For
Prelims and Mains point of view, we’ll be studying these things in a detailed manner, later
on.
yes I’ll be doing the BES-18 “GREEN” series this time. I’ve chosen green color because
both in the budget and economic survey, noting much new to teach: so, it’s going to save a
lot of slides, printouts & mental-effort for the aspirants. So, it’s “Eco-friendly” green
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BES18.. [Although I’m open to suggestions on other colors as well, Do share thoughts in
the comments below!] And stay Tuned to Youtube.com/c/TheMrunalPatel….
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