You are on page 1of 24

2003 2004

Statement of Operations Data:


Revenues:
Restaurant sales 356,260 418,799
Royalties from Kraft licensing agreement 1,156 1,219
Domestic franchise revenues 1,931 1,865
International franchise revenues 540 569

Total revenues 359,887 422,452


Costs and expenses:
Food, beverage and paper supplies 87,806 103,813
Labor (1) 129,702 152,949
Direct operating and occupancy 70,273 83,054

Cost of sales 287,781 339,816


General and administrative (2) 21,488 28,794
Depreciation and amortization 20,714 23,975
Pre-opening costs 4,147 737
Severance charges (3) 1,221 —
Loss on impairment of property and equipment 18,984 —
Store closure costs — 2,700
Legal settlement reserve — 1,333

Operating income 5,552 25,097


Other (expense) income:
Interest expense — —
Interest income 317 571
Other income — —
Equity in loss of unconsolidated joint venture (349 (143

Total other (expense) income (32 428

Income before income tax provision 5,520 25,525


Income tax provision (benefit) (82 7,709
1932 8933.75
Net income 5,602 17,816

Net income per common share (4):


Basic 0.2 0.62
Diluted 0.2 0.62
Shares used in calculating net income per common share (4):
Basic 28,300 28,687
Diluted 28,541 28,900
Selected Operating Data:
Locations open at end of year 168 171
Company-owned restaurants open at end of year 137 141
Average weekly company-owned full service restaurant sal 54,896 57,509
18-month comparable company-owned restaurant sales in 3.4 8

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/secdocuments.aspx?symbol=cpki&GDLTab=Financials

2003 2004
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 15,877 17,719
Investments in marketable securities 18,904 26,415
Trade accounts receivable 2,591 4,548
Inventories 2,892 3,068
Current deferred tax asset, net 29
Prepaid income tax 3,702 1,456
Other prepaid expenses and other current assets 3,633

Total current assets


Property and equipment, net 130,532 171,338
Noncurrent deferred tax asset, net 7,651
Goodwill and other intangibles 1,023
Other assets 3,417

Total assets
2003 2004
Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity

Current liabilities:
Short-term borrowings 0 0
Accounts payable 4,069 4,686
Accrued compensation and benefits 12,034 12,620
Accrued rent 12,030 12,429
Deferred rent credits 7,845 3,483
Other accrued liabilities 9,536 12,514
Store closure reserve 0 0
Accrued income tax 1,375 0

Total current liabilities


Other liabilities
Deferred rent credits, net of current portion

2003 2004
Nowc
OCA 25,062 26,820
OCL 25,319 20,598
NOWC -257 6,222
Change in NOWC 0 6,479
2005 2006 2008 2009 2010

474,738 547,968
2,028 3,691
2,083 2,138
750 804

479,599 554,601

118,480 135,848
173,751 199,744
92,827 108,558

385,058 444,150
36,298 43,320
25,440 29,489
4,051 6,964
— —
1,160 —
152 707
600 —

26,840 29,971

— —
739 718
1,105 —
(22 —

1,822 718

28,662 30,689
9,172 9,689
10031.7 10741.15
19,490 21,000

0.67 0.72
0.66 0.7

29,068 29,118
29,607 29,818
188 205
157 176
62,383 65,406
7.5 5.9

2005 2006 2007E 2008 2009 2010

11,272 8,187 8,308 10,975 8,400 11,114


11,408 0
4,109 7,876 7,988 12,587 8,073 12,769
3,776 4,745 4,786 5,236 4,816 5,267
8,437 11,721 11,969 14,641 12,160 14,887
1,428 0 0 0 0 0
5,492 5,388

45,922 37,917
213,408 255,382
4,513 5,867
5,967 7,754
4,444 3,593

274,254 310,513
2005 2006 2007E 2008 2009 2010

0 0
7,054 15,044 15,452 18,751 15,771 19,155
13,068 15,042
13,253 14,532 16,678 17,807 19,013
4,056 4,494 4,530 5,647 4,558 5,683
9,294 13,275
0 47
0 3,614 0 0 0 0

46,725 66,048
5,383 8,636
24,810 27,486

2005 2006

29,022 32,529 33,050 43,439 33,449 44,038


24,363 37,684 19,982 41,075 38,135 43,851
4,659 -5,155 13,068 2,364 -4,686 187
-1,563 -9,814 10,830 -10,704 -7,050 4,873
2011 2012
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

8,470 11,220 8,523 11,300 8,563 11,360

8,138 12,909 8,186 13,015 8,223 13,095


4,839 5,291 4,856 5,309 4,869 5,322
12,307 15,077 12,418 15,221 12,503 15,331
0 0 0 0 0 0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

16,017 19,469 16,207 19,710 16,351 19,894

20,300 21,650 3.32% 6.63%


4,578 5,711 4,594 5,732 4,605 5,747

0 0 0 0 0 0
33,753 44,496 33,984 44,845 34,158 45,108
40,896 46,830 20,800 25,442 20,956 25,641
-7,142 -2,333 13,184 19,403 13,202 19,467
-7,329 4,809 15,517 6,219 -6,201 6,265
9.65% 7.49% 6.77% 106.77%
2003 2004
137 141
2.92%
168 171
1.79%

3.40% 8.00%

Years 2003 2004


Financial Forecast
Revenue 356,260.00 418,799.00
Royalties from Kraft licensing agreement 1,156 1,219
Domestic franchise revenues 1,931 1,865
International franchise revenues 540 569
Total Revenue 359,887.00 422,452.00
Cost of Sales 287,781.00 339,816.00
81.02% 80.78% 81.14%
Gross Profit 72,106.00 82,636.00
General and administrative (2) 21,488 28,794
Depreciation and amortization 20,714 23,975
Other Cost 24,352.00 4,770.00
EBIT 5,552.00 25,097.00
Taxes 82.00 -7,709.00
NOPAT 5,634.00 17,388.00
Capital Expenditures 0.00 64,781.00
Change in NWC 0.00 6,479.00
Depre 20,714 23,975
FCFF -29,897.00

NPV
Add Non-operating
Value of Firm
Less BV(Debt)
Equity Value

Share(millions)
Price per Share

Debt Kd Wd
75000 6.16% 33.20%
10000 6.25% 37.63%
20000 6.25% 42.06%
30000 6.25% 46.48%
40000 6.25% 50.91%
50000 6.25% 55.34%
60000 6.25% 59.76%
70000 6.25% 64.19%
80000 6.25% 68.62%
90000 6.25% 73.05%
100000 6.25% 77.47%
110000 6.25% 81.90%
120000 6.25% 86.33%
130000 6.25% 90.75%
140000 6.25% 95.18%
150000 6.25% 99.61%
160000 6.25% 104.03%

growth 2004
Revenue 17.55%
Royalties from Kraft licensing agreement 5.45%
Domestic franchise revenues -3.42%
International franchise revenues 5.37%
Total Revenue 17.38%
Cost of Sales 18.08%
Gross Profits 14.60%
General and administrative (2) 34.00%
Depreciation and amortization 15.74%
Pre-opening costs -82.23%
Severance charges (3) -100.00%
Loss on impairment of property and equipment -100.00%
Store closure costs #DIV/0!
Legal settlement reserve #DIV/0!
352.04%
other cost -80.41%
admin cost 6.82%
Dep per ppe 6.84% 1.14%
ppe per sale 40.56%
ppe 130,532 171,338
CAPEX
Change in CAPEX
K rf 0.05
K m-rf 0.04
Ke 0.08
Kd 0.06
WACC 8.33%

K rf 0.05
K m-rf 0.04
Ke 0.09
Kd 0.06
WACC 8.27%

K rf $0.05
K m-rf 0.04
Ke 0.09
Kd 0.0616
WACC 8%
2005 2006
157 176
11.35% 12.10%
188 205
9.94% 9.04%

7.50% 5.90%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

474,738.00 547,968.00 637,480.35


2,028 3,691 4,693.99
2,083 2,138 2,718.98
750 804 972.84
479,599.00 554,601.00 645,866.16 749,204.74 869,077.50
385,058.00 444,150.00 548,986.23 636,824.03 738,715.88
81.11% 81.05%
94,541.00 110,451.00 96,879.92 112,380.71 130,361.63
36,298 43,320 46,525.01 49,967.14 53,663.93
25,440 29,489 29,862.03 30,239.78 30,622.30
5,963.00 7,671.00 7,768.04 7,866.30 7,965.81
26,840.00 29,971.00 19,724.89 32,173.80 46,075.39
-9,172.00 -9,689.00 6,903.71 11,260.83 16,126.39
17,668.00 20,282.00 26,628.60 43,434.63 62,201.78
67,414.00 71,559.00 79,120.00 57,107.82 75,782.31
-1,563.00 -9,814.00 10,829.52 -10,703.54 -7,050.36
25,440 29,489 29,862 30,240 30,622
-22,743.00 -11,974.00 -33,458.89 27,270.12 24,092.13

1,625,568.67
0.00
1,625,568.67
0
1,625,568.67

29,130.00
55.80

Total debt weighted Kd wacc


75000 6.16% 6.99%
85000 6.17% 9.78%
95000 6.18% 9.99%
105000 6.19% 10.17%
115000 6.19% 10.36%
125000 6.20% 10.55%
135000 6.20% 10.73%
145000 6.20% 10.92%
155000 6.21% 11.11%
165000 6.21% 11.29%
175000 6.21% 11.48%
185000 6.21% 11.67%
195000 6.22% 11.86%
205000 6.22% 12.04%
215000 6.22% 12.23%
225000 6.22% 12.42%
235000

2005 2006 average 2007 2008


13.36% 15.43% 15.45% 16%+
66.37% 82.00% 51.27% 37%
11.69% 2.64% 3.64%
31.81% 7.20% 14.79% 21.00%
13.53% 15.64% 15.52%
13.31% 15.35% 15.58%
14.41% 16.83% 15.28%
26.06% 19.35% 26.47%
6.11% 15.92% 12.59%
449.66% 71.91% 146.45%
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! -100.00% #DIV/0!
-94.37% 365.13% #DIV/0!
-54.99% -100.00% #DIV/0!
6.95% 11.67% 123.55%
25.01% 28.64% 26.83%
7.57% 7.81% 7.40%
1.26% 1.40% 1.26%
44.50% 46.05% 43.70% 0.00%
213,408 255,382 282,250.04 327,410.05
57,107.82 75,782.31
Wd 0.03469 Beta L 0.8706207
We 0.97
Tax 0.33

Wd 0.07 Beta L 0.89226742


We 0.93
Tax 0.33

Wd 0.10 Beta L 0.91501775


We 0.90
Tax 0.33
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1,008,129.90 1,169,430.69 1,356,539.60 1,573,585.93 1,825,359.68


856,910.42 994,016.08 1,153,058.66 1,337,548.04 1,551,555.73

151,219.49 175,414.60 203,480.94 236,037.89 273,803.95


57,634.23 61,898.27 66,477.78 71,396.11 76,678.31
31,009.67 31,401.93 31,799.16 32,201.41 32,608.75
8,066.57 8,168.61 8,271.94 8,376.58 8,482.54
62,575.59 82,114.40 105,204.00 132,440.37 164,516.89
21,901.46 28,740.04 36,821.40 46,354.13 57,580.91
84,477.04 110,854.44 142,025.39 178,794.50 222,097.80
83,395.28 92,169.24 102,289.23 113,969.90 127,460.20
4,873.26 -7,329.30 4,809.08 15,516.86 6,219.38
31,010 31,402 31,799 32,201 32,609
27,218.17 57,416.43 66,726.24 81,509.15 121,026.97

npv SP K rf
K m-rf
1,363,505.50 46.81 Ke
1,339,540.75 45.98 Kd
1,318,318.18 45.26 WACC
1,297,473.19 44.54
1,276,998.38 43.84
1,256,886.48 43.15
1,237,130.38 42.47 K rf
1,217,723.14 41.80 K m-rf
1,198,657.94 41.15 Ke
1,179,928.13 40.51 Kd
1,161,527.18 39.87 WACC
1,143,448.72 39.25
1,125,686.50 38.64
1,108,234.40 38.04
1,091,086.44 37.46

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

45.00% 53.00%

379,795.66 440,562.96 511,053.04 592,821.52 687,672.96


83,395.28 92,169.24 102,289.23 113,969.90 127,460.20
` ` ` ` `
2015 2016

growth rate 16.34%


27.17%

2,117,417.23 2,456,203.99
1,799,804.64 2,087,773.39 80.66% 80.53%
81.02% 80.74%
317,612.58 368,430.60
82,351.32 88,444.04
33,021.25 33,438.96
8,589.85 8,698.51
202,240.02 246,547.60
70,784.01 86,291.66
273,024.02 332,839.26
143,048.92 161,071.06
-6,200.95 6,264.93
33,021 33,439
169,197.30 198,942.23
2,565,820.78
2,764,763.02

Beta U 0.85
5.00% Wd 0.00% Beta L
4.00% We 100.00%
8.40% Tax 32.50%
6.16%
8.40%

Beta U
5.00% Wd 33.20% Beta L
4.00% We 66.80%
9.54% Tax 32.50%
6.16%
7.75%

2014 2015 2016

797,700.64 925,332.74 1,073,385.98


143,048.92 161,071.06 148,053.24
` ` ` `
0.85
0.85
1.135186695

You might also like