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INVESTOR
INTENTIONS
SURVEY 2018
EUROPE
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CENTRAL
MIDDLE EAST ASIA
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
AFRICA
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➜
PACIFIC
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CBRE Research
GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
Executive Summary
• On balance, more investors plan • A potential “global economic • There has been a significant
more purchases in 2018 than shock” is investors’ greatest increase in global interest in real
in 2017, reversing a three-year concern, followed by faster-than- estate “alternatives,” with real
trend in the other direction. expected interest rate increases. estate debt being most popular,
particularly in the Americas.
• Investors also plan to sell more • Industrial & logistics is the most
real estate in 2018 than 2017, popular real estate sector for • Most investors generally see
signaling a potential increase in investors in 2018. a positive impact on property
market liquidity. value when coworking operators
• North America remains the as tenants occupy up to 40% of
• Globally, investors’ main most preferred destination of a building.
motivations for investing in real investors, but less so than in
estate in 2018 are income and 2017.
diversification.
Global levels of real estate investment rates—will continue in 2018. Interest “Interest rates will What’s motivating investors in 2018, how will they spend, and what’s their risk appetite?
activity rose slightly in 2017 to US$953 rates will continue to trend up in the U.S.
billion from US$941 billion in 2016. at a modest pace and on the back of a
continue to trend up
There was a strong regional shift in activity. resurgent economy. As a result, the recent in the U.S. at a modest CBRE’s survey results show that income is A declining number of investors, compared Investors do not place significant relative
APAC investment volume was 20% above stretch of strong cap rate compression is the single most important factor motivating to past years, see capital gains relative emphasis on real estate’s ability to hedge
2016’s level and EMEA volume was up unlikely to continue.
pace and on the back of investors to place capital in real estate to other asset classes as their primary inflation, partly because they are not
by 9%, whereas Americas volume was a resurgent economy. this year. This is consistent across regions motivation to invest. In 2016, 37% saw currently that worried about inflation but
down by 6%. Cap rates (yields) continued Our survey nevertheless suggests that real and has been trending up over time. Real capital value appreciation as their main also, in APAC, because of the prevalence
to edge down in all regions, reflecting a estate remains a highly desirable asset
As a result, the recent estate’s ability to offer diversification, motivation, compared with just 12% today of shorter leases.
moderate excess of buyers over sellers. class. The tables and charts below explain stretch of strong cap rate both by asset class and geographically, as real estate yields reach record lows.
what the world’s leading investors are is also important. When taken together, There are regional differences, with 17% of
We expect the economic conditions that thinking as they look at markets that are
compression is unlikely asset class and geographic diversification APAC investors seeing capital gains from
supported real estate investment in 2017— healthy but more expensive than last year. to continue.” almost match income as investors’ main real estate as their primary motivation for
growth accompanied by low interest motivation in choosing investing, compared to 13% in EMEA and
real estate. 11% in the Americas.
200 1000 Figure 2: What is your organization’s main motivation for investing in real estate in 2018?
Income
38%
150 800 Asset class diversification
25%
Expectation of better capital value growth
than other asset classes 12%
12%
Billions USD
100 600
Geographic diversification
4%
Hedge against inflation
2%
50 400
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 200
Q4
Americas (L) EMEA (L) APAC (L) Global Rolling 12-month Total (R)
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
When asked whether they planned to Figure 3: Compared to 2017, do you expect your purchasing activity in 2018 to be
spend more, or less, on real estate in
45
2018 than they did in 2017, 43% of
surveyed investors said that they would
spend about the same, 45% said they
% 40%
would spend more and 12% said they
would spend less. The balance between IN 2017
HIGHER
those planning to spend more over those
planning to spend less is 33%, which is up
33 %
strongly from 24% last year. The increase
in the net balance score represents a
turnaround of a three-year trend in the
opposite direction and is quite positive for
24%
IN 2017
real estate. BALANCE
We also asked investors if they planned to
12%
sell more in 2018 than they did in 2017.
While 48% indicate that their level of
sales will be about the same, the balance
of investors planning to sell more over
16%
IN 2017
those planning to sell less rose to 27%, up LOWER
from 15% in 2017. Investors are taking
advantage of the current strength of the
Source: CBRE Research, Global Investor Intentions Survey, 2018.
market to make necessary changes to
their portfolios. The finding that planned
spending is somewhat balanced by
disposals is healthy for the marketplace
and is likely to reduce downward pressure Figure 4: Compared to 2017, do you expect your selling activity in 2018 to be
on cap rates.
27
BALANCE
%
15 %
IN 2017
12LOWER
%
17 %
IN 2017
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
In terms of overall risk appetite, there are regional differences: In EMEA and APAC, line with regional differences in levels of Prime assets continue to attract investors “Change of use, enhanced property management and
slightly more respondents with less risk there is a shift toward greater risk appetite, capital markets activity mentioned above. in EMEA, despite a strong recovery
appetite at a global level than there were whereas in the Americas there is less in economic growth in the region. redevelopment are the preferred strategies for value
last year. However, there are notable appetite for risk. These responses are in Americas and APAC investors seem to enhancement.”
prefer a value-added strategy, perhaps
due to limited room for further cap rate
compression. Change of use, enhanced
property management and redevelopment
are the preferred strategies for value
enhancement.
Figure 5: What is your risk appetite compared to last year? Figure 6: What type of property assets are most attractive for you to purchase?
45%
36%
37
7% 34%
33%
30 %
29%
28%
22%
19 % 25%
18 %
21% 23%
14
1 %
14
4%
9% 10
10 %
20 %
16%
3%
2% 2%
Prime or core assets Core plus / Good Value-add Opportunistic Distressed assets
secondary
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
Preferred Sectors
Figure 8: Which property sector do you believe is the most attractive for investment purchases?
Industrial & logistics (I&L) is the most Figure 7: Which property sector do you believe is the most attractive for investment purchases?
popular real estate sector for global
investors this year, followed by office and
then multifamily/private rented sector
(PRS), which was the top sector in the U.S.
in terms of investment volume in 2017. 50 %
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
Once again, North America is the In APAC, relative preference for “Once again, North Top Cities by Region Figure 10: Most preferred cities for investment
most preferred region for cross-border “Developed Asia” has grown. Much of this
investment, but that preference has increase is attributable to Asian investors
America is the most In the Americas, there was little movement
EMEA AMERICAS APAC
declined relative to 2017. shifting from North America as their preferred region for in the top-three cities for investment.
preferred location, as in 2017, toward However, Seattle has moved up several
Western Europe has seen a corresponding Developed Asia.
cross-border investment, places thanks to its tech dynamism and Paris
Los Angeles/
Tokyo
Southern California
rise in popularity, thanks to improving but that preference emerging “gateway” profile. In EMEA,
economic fundamentals. Investors in EMEA Paris replaced London at the top of the Dallas/
showed a strong preference for Western
has declined relative to list, perhaps reflecting some uncertainty
Madrid
Ft. Worth
Melbourne
Europe in the 2018 survey. 2017.” around the future of the U.K.’s Brexit
negotiations. German cities, including Amsterdam New York Sydney
Frankfurt, have grown in popularity,
propelled by strong economic growth and
constrained supply. In APAC, Singapore Frankfurt Seattle Shanghai
returned to the top-five group thanks to
improving economic growth, particularly San Francisco/
Figure 9 : Which global region do you believe is the most attractive for making property investment purchases? (Only investors intending to invest outside their region.) London Singapore
in the manufacturing sector, in the second Northern California
half of 2017.
Houston
Note: For EMEA and APAC, figures are regional responses weighted by both the AUM of the responding company
and the AUM domiciled in the reporting country. The U.S. rankings are based on unweighted results.
Source: CBRE Research, Global Investor Intentions Survey, 2018.
6 %
39%
NORTH 32 % CENTRAL &
EASTERN
EUROPE
12%
DEVELOPED
ASIA
WESTERN
AMERICA EUROPE
0%
MIDDLE
7%
EMERGING
EAST
ASIA
1%
AFRICA
1 %
SOUTH &
CENTRAL
AMERICA
1%
PACIFIC
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
Alternatives Figure 12: Are you actively pursuing investment in any of the following “alternative” sectors?
29 %
27%
26 %
Figure 13: Why do you consider investing in “alternative” sectors?
24 %
23
3%
10 %
11%
10
1 %
Urbanization (re-urbanization in
EMEA and the U.S.) 7%
6%
9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
8% Millennial trends
7%
6% Technological advancement
5%
4 %
3% Diversification
1%
Other
12%
Real estate Student Retirement Health care Data center Self-storage Single-family Infrastructure Leisure/ Automotive/
debt housing living residential Entertainment Car parks
Source: CBRE Research, Global Investor Intentions Survey, 2018.
2018 2017 2016
Source: CBRE Research, Global Investor Intentions Survey, 2018.
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
Coworking
More than any other time in the past 30 45% of respondents said that flexibility of as an amenity for traditional tenants.
years, occupiers are changing the way that use was the most important occupier trend In other words, within the context of a
they think about and utilize real estate. for real estate in 2018. single building, occupiers could take a
In some cases, this is about finding new proportion of the space that they require
efficiency gains; in others, it is about We asked investors whether they agreed on a traditional lease and some on a
wholly new ways of working and retaining with a set of statements on coworking and coworking basis.
talent. Office occupiers increasingly expect found that most investors, particularly in
a menu of choices about length of stay, the Americas, have yet to form an opinion. The most positive statements about
range of amenities, level of management This is understandable, given how recently coworking come from investors in APAC,
service and cost. this mode of occupation began and the which has the highest proportion of
fact that it has not yet been fully “cycle respondents replying that “it’s the future
A new class of occupier, acting as an tested.” A minority of investors, especially of the office and should be embraced”
intermediary landlord, has entered the in the Americas, see coworking operators and “we are seeking to develop our own
market to satisfy this demand by taking as a credit risk, possibly because their coworking brand.”
long leases from building owners and then business models imply a relatively higher
subleasing the space on a much more cost per seat than in a traditional lease Broadly speaking, our survey suggests that
flexible basis with a much higher level of and less security of rental income. from an investor perspective, the jury is still
service provision and amenities. This trend out on coworking.
is known as “coworking.” In our survey, A larger group of investors see coworking
Figure 14: Which of the following statements do you agree with regarding coworking?
33 %
We don’t yet have a strong
45 %
conclusion about coworking
35 %
30 %
It's the future of office work and
18 %
should be embraced 33 %
27%
Coworking space is an amenity for
22%
other tenants 29%
15 %
Coworking space enhances the 9%
income from a building in the long term 20 %
11%
We are seeking operating partners to
4%
increase our coworking offer 12%
4%
We are seeking to develop our own
4%
coworking brand
12%
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
One of the main reasons investors deploy amount may be small or large—but the
capital in real estate is security of income. direction of investor thinking is clear. At
“On balance, investors Figure 15: What impact do the following proportions of coworking space in a building have on long-term capital value?
It is possible that moving from long-term low levels of occupation, coworking is think that coworking % of building occupied
leases to short-term occupation adds seen as enhancing the value of a building,
risk to the net operating income from the presumably by improving its attractiveness
tenants will reduce the by coworking operators
building. It is much easier, for instance, to traditional tenants and improving value of a building when 80%+
for short-term occupiers to downsize average income per sq. ft.
during an economic downturn, with the
they occupy more than
coworking operator left with a high level of Investors are clearly of the opinion that 40% of its space.”
unoccupied space to fit-out and amenities coworking operators will likely be most 60%-80%
and a long-term lease to service. successful in core locations in gateway
cities. This is understandable, since the
On balance, investors think that coworking core areas of gateway cities tend to be 40%-60%
tenants will reduce the value of a building occupied by the highest value-adding
when they occupy more than 40% of its service sector firms, often the type of
space. We did not ask investors about occupier that is drawn to coworking.
20%-40%
the magnitude of value impact—the
0%-20%
% of investors think that coworking space will reduce property value % of investors think that coworking space will increase property value
Figure 16: How successful are coworking operators likely to be in the following locations? 4=very likely to be successful, 1=unlikely to be successful
Average Rating
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
Investor concerns for 2018 are very similar the fact that we are through a period of concerned with overbuilding, compared
to those of 2017: a “global economic highly uncertain elections and political with 4% in EMEA and 9% in APAC. In
shock,” faster-than-expected interest rate transition in Europe, the U.S. and China. APAC, perhaps reflecting the importance
increases and the possibility that property Concern about rising interest rates is not of China, investors are relatively more
values have peaked. overwhelming. concerned with a change in government
policy impacting the property market.
The fact that investors are now less There are some regional variations in
concerned with a local economic investor concern. In the Americas, 15%
downturn than in previous years reflects of surveyed investors are relatively more
Figure 17: Which of the following do you believe poses the greatest threat to property markets?
30 %
22%
21%
20 %
20 % 20 %
19%
15%
12%
10 % 10 % 10 % 10 %
9%
8 %
6%
4%
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018 GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
There has been little change to the “Pricing is the biggest obstacle in all regions,
obstacles facing investors in deploying
capital, though there are small regional
especially in the Americas.”
differences. Pricing is the biggest
obstacle in all regions, especially in
the Americas. In EMEA, the sheer lack
of availability of assets is keenly felt by
investors. In APAC, there is some concern
about the availability of debt, which
possibly reflects measures taken in 2017
by the Royal Bank of Australia to tighten
real estate lending standards.
Figure 18: What is the biggest obstacle in acquiring assets in your region?
44%
Asset pricing 58 %
43%
1%
Availability and/or cost of debt 2%
7%
34 %
Availability of assets 20 %
18 %
17%
Competition from other investors 16 %
13%
1%
Currency risk 1% Our 2018 Global Investor Intentions Survey shows that investors remain positive
2%
about real estate as an asset class for its ability to provide income return and
0% diversification benefits. Current pricing and the potential for rising interest rates are
Lack of investment partners 1%
1% concerns, but our survey does not suggest any marked changes in the level of investor
1% activity in 2018. Some investors will take advantage of the strength of the market to
Low market transparency 0%
9% conduct sales. This will be good for liquidity and may have a small impact on pricing,
1% particularly in the U.S.
Tax 1%
3%
North America is the top regional destination for global real estate capital, despite
1%
Transaction costs 0% rising interest rates reflecting a potent mix of economic growth and currency
2%
weakness. Within regions, investors remain interested in core and gateway markets,
0%
Other 1% but are willing to go well beyond these in search of income. Investors are very
1% interested in alternative/emerging real estate sub-sectors, such as retirement and
EMEA AMERICAS APAC student housing. This is very positive for portfolio returns, but also for ensuring that
capital meets the needs of a changing society.
Source: CBRE Research, Global Investor Intentions Survey, 2018.
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GLOBAL Investor Intentions Survey 2018
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