Professional Documents
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Cityneon Holdings
Bloomberg: CITN SP | Reuters: CNHL.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
0.7
416
exhibitions, focusing on creating innovative and captivating
366
0.6 316
content, and delivering engaging and interactive exhibitions to
0.5 266 audiences. To date, it has secured two IP rights – The Avengers
0.4 216 from Marvel in 2013 and Transformers from HASBRO in 2015.
0.3 166
0.2 116 Scalable business model with low execution risk. Cityneon’s
0.1
May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15
66
May-16
earnings are directly correlated with its number of exhibits. So
far, it has two permanent sets in Las Vegas and another two
Cityneon Holdings (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS)
travelling sets; we expect it will have a total of six sets by end-
Forecasts and Valuation 2017 and eight sets by 2018. The group operates on a relatively
FY Dec (S$m) 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F low execution risk model as outside the US, it will find partners
Revenue 96.5 98.6 119 143 in the target region, which will assume the operating risks.
EBITDA 2.63 14.0 29.9 40.3
Pre-tax Profit 0.79 8.41 21.0 29.3
Potential for third IP, and to tap on other Walt Disney franchises.
Net Profit 0.87 6.66 16.3 22.7 There is a huge pool of franchises to be tapped under the Disney
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 0.87 6.66 16.3 22.7 umbrella, aside from the Marvel franchise. Some attractive
EPS (S cts) 0.39 2.77 6.78 9.42 options include Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Batman and Spider. We
EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 0.39 2.77 6.78 9.42 expect the VHE team to leverage their credentials in developing
EPS Gth (%) (85) 602 145 39
the Avengers and Transformers exhibits to leapfrog to the next
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (85) 602 145 39
Diluted EPS (S cts) 0.39 2.77 6.78 9.42 IP.
Net DPS (S cts) 0.40 0.0 0.0 0.0 Expect earnings to improve from FY16F. Earnings for FY16
BV Per Share (S cts) 22.4 22.2 28.3 36.1 should see a jump with the incorporation of VHE, due to
PE (X) 187.6 26.7 10.9 7.9
contribution from the Avengers set in Paris and Las Vegas, as
PE Pre Ex. (X) 187.6 26.7 10.9 7.9
P/Cash Flow (X) 56.5 nm 8.7 6.2 well as an upfront licence fee to be partially recognised in FY16
EV/EBITDA (X) 57.5 13.6 6.2 4.3 for the 2-year agreement in China. Thereafter, a ramp-up in
Net Div Yield (%) 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 operational sets will drive earnings growth. We have not
P/Book Value (X) 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.1 factored in the potential of a third IP.
Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH 0.2 0.1 CASH
ROAE (%) 2.3 12.9 26.8 29.3 Initiate with BUY; TP S$1.03, based on peer average of 15.2x
FY17F earnings. At a low PE to growth of <0.1x, stock is
Consensus EPS (S cts): 2.30 6.60 8.90 attractive to investors seeking growth and unique ideas in the
Other Broker Recs: B: 2 S: 0 H: 0 entertainment industry. An expanding project pipeline, plans to
add a third IP right, and potential tie ups with CMC are catalysts
ICB Industry : Industrials
for the stock.
ICB Sector: Support Services
Principal Business: With the acquisition of Victory Hill Exhibitions
(VHE) in September 2015, Cityneon has evolved to become a At A Glance
creator of innovative and interactive exhibitions, focusing on Issued Capital (m shrs) 244
creating innovative and captivating content, and delivering Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 181 / 131
engaging and interactive. Major Shareholders (%)
Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P Star Publications 52.6
Tan Aik Ti 16.4
Free Float (%) 31.0
3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 1.6
INVESTMENT THESIS
Profile Rationale
With the acquisition of Victory Hill Exhibitions (VHE) in Scalable business model with low execution risk. Cityneon’s
September 2015, Cityneon has evolved to become a creator earnings are directly correlated with the number of exhibits
of innovative and interactive exhibitions, focusing on it has. So far, it has two permanent sets in Las Vegas and
creating innovative and captivating content, and delivering another two travelling sets; we expect it will have a total of
engaging and interactive exhibitions to audiences. To date, six sets by end-2017 and eight sets by 2018. The group
it has secured two IP rights – The Avengers from Marvel in operates on a relatively low execution risk model as outside
2013 and Transformers from HASBRO in 2015. the US, it will find partners in the target region, which will
assume the operating risks.
Valuation Risks
Initiate with BUY; TP S$1.03, based on peer average of 15.2x Limited track record for VHE
FY17F earnings. At a low PE to growth of <0.1x, stock is VHE was formed in 2012 and the first exhibition was in New
attractive to investors seeking growth and unique ideas in the York in 2014.
entertainment industry. An expanding project pipeline, plans
to add a third IP right, and potential tie ups with CMC are Earnings dependent on number of visitors
catalysts for the stock. Though Cityneon will usually get upfront payment fees from
operators to use its exhibits, a higher visitorship would
enable the group to generate higher royalties in excess of
the minimum guarantees on royalties. Furthermore,
ancillaries sales like merchandise, photo, food & beverage
are also dependent on the number of visitors.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weakness
• Secured two IP rights • Limited track record for VHE
VHE has secured two IP rights since incorporation in 2012. VHE was formed in 2012 and its first exhibition was in New
VHE sealed a multi-year deal with Marvel Entertainment for York in 2014, followed by Korea in 2015 and Paris this year.
the rights to use Avengers S.T.A.T.I.O.N. till 2024. In
November 2015, VHE signed a deal with HASBRO Studios for • Earnings dependent on number of visitors
Transformers franchise till year 2023. Though Cityneon will usually get upfront payment fees from
operators to use its exhibits, a higher visitorship would
• Strong pipeline of Avengers/Transformers movies should enable the group to generate higher royalties in excess of
bode well for attracting visitorship the minimum guarantees on royalties. Furthermore,
Marvel has a strong movie pipeline stretching to 2020. For ancillaries sales like merchandise, photo, food & beverage
Transformers, four more films are coming in the next ten are also dependent on the number of visitors.
years, with Transformers 5 slated to launch in June 2017.
• Low free float, key stakeholders control more than half of
• Helmed by industry veteran the company
Mr Ron Tan, CEO, was the producer of the popular Hi-5 Shares in Cityneon remain tightly held, with a free float of
series. Earlier in his career, he served in various management about 30%. Star Media still holds about 52.6% after the
positions, including Media Corp. He is supported by placement while CEO Ron Tan holds another 16.4%.
established creative officers and producers in US.
Opportunities Threats
• Potential for third IP
There is a huge pool of franchises to be tapped under the • Ability to find suitable partners in host country
Disney umbrella, aside from the Marvel franchise. Some VHE will tie up with a partner in the host country for its
attractive options include Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Batman travelling sets. Failure to get a reliable and credible partner
and Spider. We expect the VHE team to leverage their could affect VHE’s image.
credentials in developing the Avengers and Transformers
exhibits to leapfrog to the next IP. • Outbreak of contagious disease
An outbreak of disease, especially contagious ones, could
• Placement to strategic investors, paving way for growth affect the visitorship of VHE’s exhibition.
The recent placement to a strategic investor like CMC, a
media and entertainment investment with operating • Sustainability of interest in interactive exhibition
platform in China, enhances collaboration opportunities With the advancement of today’s technology, the
between the two entities. emergence of fresh ideas in the interactive exhibition space
and other entertainment areas should not be ruled out.
• IP rights have no limits on location
VHE can venture into any part of the world with the two
existing IP rights. Though it makes more business sense to
target the larger cities first, VHE has vast opportunities as
there are >30 cities globally with population of >10m.
Company Background
Background: VHE and the interactive exhibitions
Acquired by Cityneon in September 2015 to boost earnings. Past Exhibitions
Founded in 2012, Victory Hill Exhibitions (VHE) is an Location Period
exhibition Production and Distribution Company focused on Avengers
delivering engaging, educational and interactive exhibitions New York Jul 2014 to Sep 2015
Korea May 2015 to Sep 2015
for the global market. Cityneon Holdings, whose traditional Paris Apr 2016 to Sep 2016
business lies in Interior Architecture, Exhibitions, Events and
Experiential Environments – in other words, the less Las Vegas * Opens in May 2016
‘interactive’ aspects of design and exhibition services – has Transformers
China Dec 2016 to Dec 2018
experienced deteriorating margins over the years as
Las Vegas * Oct 2016
competition in the traditional exhibitions business has
*permanent sets
intensified. The acquisition of VHE in September 2015 was
thus a strategic one. Source: Company, DBS Bank
Avengers S.T.A.T.I.O.N. New York iii) Exhibitions – design, fabrication, installation and
project management of customised exhibition booths
and pavilions, and rental of exhibition-related modules
iv) Experiential environment – facades, scenic fabrication,
replicas, show sets and props, landscaping to theme
parks and attractions, expositions, museums and
galleries, etc.
40 Exhibition Services
20
Experimental
environment (ex-
0 Thematics)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
30%
Source: Company
20%
Cityneon’s old businesses – not the best 10%
returns
0%
Business model: one permanent site with a the learning curve. This enables the company to scale the
few travelling exhibits number of sets (management targets a total of four travelling
sets by end-2017, and we believe they could hit six travelling
Las Vegas flagship permanent attraction will be operated by sets by end-2018), deploying them to different regions
VHE. VHE has a permanent exhibition site in Las Vegas globally. A large portion of the revenue from this model will
occupying approximately 30,000 sqft and located at Treasure come from upfront licence fees – akin to prepaid rental for
Island Hotel on the Las Vegas strip, which will house both an the sets – from VHE’s partners who will also operate those
Avengers S.T.A.T.I.O.N and Transformers attraction. Ticket sets; licence fees will be paid before the opening of the
sales should account for the largest proportion of top-line attractions. Additionally, VHE takes a cut of ticket sales and
revenues from Las Vegas, with merchandise sales, sales of merchandise (see diagram below), which also come with
photos, sponsorship revenue and naming rights also minimum guarantees, thus reducing downside risk.
contributing. Ticket price is about US$30 each, which is
affordable. Naming rights refer to the fees that will be paid to Finding reputable partners is crucial for the travelling sets.
VHE by a prospective partner for naming the building that Partners wielding scale and influence in their respective
houses the Avengers/Transformers exhibits on the Las Vegas regions/cities enable effective marketing of the attractions.
Strip, and advertisement time on the large LCD screens For example, TF1 (a EUR2.3bn market cap French media
fronting it. There could be upside risk to our earnings conglomerate), was able to promote VHE’s Avengers
forecast; at the moment we are imputing US$4m/year attraction in Paris to the point of being the #1 most tweeted
beginning in FY2017 in our model but we note that there about topic in Paris for its opening week. With Beijing
have been more generous fees paid for naming rights in the Starclouds Entertainment Development Co signed on as
vicinity, as the strip area is prime location in Las Vegas. partner for the China travelling attraction (whose key
management includes Li Yao Han, previous founder and
Travelling sets are scalable and have minimal execution risk. chairman of Wanda Cinema Line), and a recent placement of
While VHE requires about US$8-9m in capex outlay for the shares to strategic investor CMC Holdings (helmed by former
first Avengers and Transformers sets it builds, subsequent sets Shanghai Media Group executive Li Ruigang), VHE seems to
should cost only about US$3m as a result of moving along be doing well in this respect.
usage of set
reduce risk
Sponsorship revenue of non- Merchandise (sales to partner + cut
performance of final sales to customer)
Naming rights
Competitive Strengths & Growth Strategies Spiderman in 2017; Avengers Infinity War part 1, Black
Panther and Ant-man in 2018; Avengers Infinity War
• Strong pipeline of Avengers/Transformers movies part 2, Captain Marvel and Inhumans in 2019, and yet-
should bode well for attracting visitorship. Marvel has a unnamed movies in 2019/2020. For Transformers, four
strong movie pipeline stretching to 2020. The pipeline more films are coming in the next ten years, with
includes Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Thor and Transformers 5 slated to launch in June 2017.
Source: Disney
Avengers and Transformers have a strong box-office history. Projects pipeline till 2017
As shown in the table above, the movies in the Avengers VHE targets to launch Transformers in Las Vegas and China
and Transformers series often achieve Top 10 box-office by end-2016. For next year, VHE intends to venture into
positions, and are always within the top 20 at minimum, Middle East, rest of Asia and others parts of China.
with the Iron Man, the Avengers and Transformers movies
doing particularly well in terms of both gross takings and There are no limits on locations for its IP rights. VHE can
consistency in rankings over time. This, together with the venture into any part of the world with the existing two
strong pipeline of upcoming movies, should have a spillover franchises. Though it makes more business sense to target
effect in terms of visitorship to VHE’s attractions. the larger cities first, VHE has vast opportunities as there are
>30 cities globally with population of >10m.
Projects in the pipeline for 2016/17 Scalable business model with manageable execution
Singapore Avengers risk. The first set costs around US$8-9m to build but the
Sweden Avengers subsequent sets cost only about one-third of the original
Taiwan Avengers cost per set. Thus, Cityneon is able to achieve operational
leverage with every subsequent set built. Based on
Middle East Transformers
Cityneon’s current capacity, we expect the Group to have a
Europe Transformers
total of six sets by end-2017 and eight sets by 2018.
Source: DBS Bank, Company
Helmed by industry veteran Furthermore, execution risk is minimal for the travelling
Helmed by industry veteran, Mr Ron Tan, the single largest exhibits as the bulk of the risk is borne by the operator. For
shareholder, who was the producer of the popular Hi-5 instance, in April 2016, VHE entered into a non-binding
series. Earlier in his career, he served in various management term sheet with Beijing Starclouds Entertainment
positions, including Media Corp. He is supported by Nicholas Development to host and operate the Transformers
Cooper, Chief Creative Officer, also a founder of VHE; Experience touring exhibitions in China for two years on an
Richard Sears, Senior Creative Producer and Olivier Katz, exclusive licence. Starclouds will bear the execution risk
Producer. while Cityneon mainly builds and provides the sets for
exhibition.
Key Management Team
Ron Tan, Chief Executive Officer / President, Victory Hill
Potential for third IP – a look at some candidates
Exhibitions A universe of possibilities. While we have not factored in the
Executive Director & single largest individual shareholder of securing of a third IP (i.e. in addition to Avengers and
Cityneon Holdings. He was the producer of award-winning Hi-5 Transformers), we believe there are various attractive options
television series (Hi-5 House) & Hi-5 movie “Some Kind of out there that VHE could bid for, if the studios are willing to
Wonderful”. The TV series was sold and broadcasted to more farm out such attractions. Management has two criteria for
than 200 countries globally. Earlier in his career, he served in new IPs: 1) They should have box office takings of over
various distinguished management positions at Media Corp, US$1bn globally; and 2) There must be sequels in the
LexisNexis Asia Pacific in Singapore & Hong Kong, Singapore pipeline.
Tourism Board and Economic Development Board of Singapore.
Nicholas Cooper, Chief Creative Officer, Founder of VHE We list below the top 30 grossing movie franchises that
An award-winning producer/director/writer with over 15 years of have had sequels since 2010, and whose franchise has
experience in the entertainment industry. He specialises in grossed above US$1bn globally. Some attractive names like
creating engaging entertainment productions across multiple Harry Potter, James Bond and Avatar already have interactive
platforms and has been responsible for numerous productions at
or semi-interactive exhibitions being undertaken by
Warner Bros.
competitors. However, there remain various options right up
Richard Sears, Senior Creative Producer VHE’s alley – superheroes and sci-fi themed franchises –
He has written and directed short films for Canal Plus/France, that, to our knowledge, are as yet underdeveloped.
Nissan, University of Phoenix and Department of Homeland
Security. His films have been played at numerous festivals around In the table below, we highlight in yellow those franchises
the world.
that we believe are prime candidates. Star Wars comes out
Olivier Katz, Producer tops as its current exhibitions are rather static in nature,
He has over 25 years of senior-level managerial experience with while the recent Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) was
television, entertainment, advertising & media companies. He is the highest grossing film that year by a stratospheric margin,
the founding principal of Blue Pixel Media, Kindling Digital &
and a healthy pipeline of movies is in the making. Moving
Homendo and was Animation Producer of SouthPark TV series.
on, Batman and Superman will be united in the upcoming
He has garnered numerous national and international awards.
Justice League movies in 2017 and 2019, and so a Justice
Source: Company, DBS Bank League IP makes sense too. Otherwise, Spider-man, X-men,
Jurassic Park and Star Trek are also prime candidates in our
opinion (see chart below).
Following the placement, Star Media has reduced its stake in So far, VHE has worked with Group TF1, a public-listed
Cityneon to about 52.6% while IGV33, a private vehicle company in France with a market capitalisation of about
owned by Ron Tan, has about 16.4% balance. €2bn, and is the owner of the largest private European
television channel, TF1. In China, VHE has partnered Beijing
Starclouds Entertainment Development on a 2-year exclusive
licence to host and operate the Transformers Experience
touring exhibitions. The chairman of Starclouds was a senior
management from the Wanda Group, China's largest
commercial property company and the world's largest
cinema chain operator.
Initiate with BUY, TP: S$1.03. The experiential/interaction Meanwhile, the old Cityneon business is forecasted to rake
exhibition companies similar to Cityneon generally trade at a in a steady ~S$1m per year. For these businesses, execution
higher PE multiples of 17.2x for FY16F and 15.2x for FY17F and cost control will be paramount; a slip-up in project
vs the traditional exhibitors of 13x and 11x for the same execution would trim away whatever margins remain.
period. We believe a 15.2x FY17F PE is fair, as Cityneon
offers strong FY15 to FY18F earnings CAGR of about 300%. Expansion should increase debt levels, but not onerously.
Based on FY17F PE of 15.2x, our target price works out to We assume that VHE will be able to scale up to six sets by
S$1.03 per share, which translates to an upside of 39% end-2017, and further assume another two sets are
from current price. At a low PE to growth of <0.1x, stock is deployed in 2018, for a total of eight sets by that year. As a
attractive to investors seeking growth and unique ideas in result of this expansion, we believe the company will take on
the entertainment industry. An expanding project pipeline, incremental debt of ~S$10m in the near term, increasing net
plans to add a third IP right, and potential tie ups with CMC gearing to 0.1x in FY16, but positive cash flows should bring
are catalysts for the stock. the company back into a net cash position in FY17, barring
other unexpected capex outlays. Thus, at this point, gearing
Expect earnings to improve from FY16F. Earnings for FY16 remains insignificant.
should see a jump with the incorporation of VHE. This will
be due to contribution from the Avengers set in Paris and Not imputing a third IP yet, but securing one would boost
Las Vegas, as well as partial upfront licence fee to be earnings. While the company has its hands full at the
recognised in FY16 for the 2-year agreement in China with moment with the launch of its various Avengers and
Starclouds that we estimate to amount to ~S$3m. Transformers attractions, we believe the launch of a third IP
Thereafter, a ramp-up in operational sets will drive earnings is a possibility in the medium term, perhaps by 2019. Given
growth. the high capex (US$8-9m) for the first-time construction of a
new IP set though, elevated depreciation costs mean that
profits should be muted on the first new IP set, but it is
reasonable to assume a boost of S$1-4m per set per year to
the bottom line from the second set onwards.
Closest peers
Experiential exhibition/entertainment focused companies - Listed Cos
Viad Corp Viad (pronounced VEE-ahd) is an S&P SmallCap 600 international experiential services company with operations
in the US, Canada, the UK, continental Europe and the United Arab Emirates. Viad generates revenue through
two main business groups: the Marketing & Events Group and the Travel & Recreation Group.
Premier Exhibitions Premier Exhibitions, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in organising museum-quality exhibitions. The company
also sells tickets, and offers third-party licensing and sponsorship services. It primarily operates in the US, where it
is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia and employs around 46 people.
Paragon Entertainment Paragon Entertainment is engaged in designing, building and consulting on exhibits and attractions for theme
Limited parks, museums, attractions and leisure destinations, experiential brand and retail centres, aquariums and water
parks. The group also creates, develops and operates its own distinctively branded attractions using proprietary or
third-party branding. In addition, Paragon Entertainment also license third-party attraction-related intellectual
property to the operators of attractions and leisure destinations.
Merlin Entertainments Merlin Entertainments (Merlin) is a family entertainment company. The company operates midway attractions
under various brands including SEA LIFE, Madame Tussauds, The EDF Energy London Eye, Dungeons, Gardaland,
LEGOLAND Discovery Centers, Alton Towers Resort, Warwick Castle, THORPE PARK, Chessington World of
Adventures Resort, Blackpool Tower, Heide Park Resort, WILD LIFE Sydney Zoo and Falls Creek. As of October
2015, the company operated approximately 100 attractions, 12 hotels and four holiday villages in 23 countries
and across four continents. Merlin Entertainments operates in Australia, Europe, Asia and North America. It is
headquartered in Dorset, the UK and employs around 26,000 people.
CityNeon Holdings CITN SP Equity 126 12/2015 26.0x 10.6x 11.5x 5.4x 3.2x 10.0% 2.3% 2.3% CASH
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
Revenues (S$m)
Old Business 67.8 78.0 96.5 79.5 70.0 77.0
Victory Hill Exhibitions
n.a. n.a. n.a. 19.1 49.0 66.2
(VHE)
Total 67.8 78.0 96.5 98.6 119 143
Net Profit (S$m)
Old Business 0.89 2.35 0.87 1.10 1.07 0.73
Victory Hill Exhibitions n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.6
15.3 22.0
(VHE)
Total 0.89 2.35 0.87 6.66 16.3 22.7
Net Profit Margins (%)
Old Business 1.3 3.0 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.0
Victory Hill Exhibitions
N/A N/A N/A 29.2 31.1 33.2
(VHE)
Total 1.3 3.0 0.9 6.8 13.7 15.8
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %
Revenue 44 30 48 41 56
Cost of Goods Sold (30) (20) (36) (31) (42)
Gross Profit 15 10 12 10 14
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (12) (10) (10) (10) (12)
Operating Profit 3 0 3 (1) 2
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0
Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 0
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0
Pre-tax Profit 3 0 2 (1) 2
Tax 0 0 0 0 0
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0
Net Profit 3 0 2 (1) 2
Net profit bef Except. 3 0 2 (1) 2
EBITDA 3 1 3 0 2
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 88.3 (31.5) 57.3 (14.7) 37.1
EBITDA Gth (%) nm (77.4) 285.3 nm nm
Opg Profit Gth (%) nm (91.7) 949.2 nm nm
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) nm (95.6) 1,722.1 nm nm
(%)
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 32.8 32.7 25.5 23.5 24.6
Opg Profit Margins (%) 6.6 0.8 5.3 (1.4) 3.1
Net Profit Margins (%) 6.2 0.4 4.7 (1.8) 2.8
DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends
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