Thesis Final2

Generalized statistical mechanics description of fault and
earthquake populations in Corinth rift (Greece)
Georgios Michas
Ph.D. Thesis
University College London
2016
Declaration
I, Georgios Michas, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where
information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated
in the thesis.
…………………………………………………………………………………………
ii
Abstract
The aim of the present thesis is to provide new insights into fault growth processes and
the evolution of earthquake activity in one of the most seismically active area in Europe,
the Corinth Rift (central Greece). The collective properties of fault and earthquake
populations are studied in terms of statistical mechanics and the generalized framework
termed as Non-Extensive Statistical Mechanics (NESM). By compiling a
comprehensive dataset for the fault network in the Rift, the scaling properties of fault
trace-lengths are studied by applying the NESM framework. In the debate of power-law
versus exponential scaling in natural fault systems, the analysis indicates the transition
from the one end-member to the other as a function of increasing strain in the Rift,
providing quantitative evidence for a combination of crustal processes in a single
tectonic setting. The results further imply that regional strain, fault interactions and the
boundary condition of the brittle layer may control fault growth and fault network
evolution in the Rift. The fragment-asperity model, which is derived in the NESM
framework, is further used to describe the frequency-magnitude distribution of
seismicity and estimate the recurrence times of large earthquakes in the region,
supplemented and compared with the empirical Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation. The
NESM based analysis of the temporal properties of earthquakes in the Rift indicates that
seismicity evolves in temporal clusters, characterized by multifractal structures and both
short-term and long-term clustering effects, which indicate highly non-random
behavior. Such properties further imply non-linear diffusion phenomena in the evolution
of the earthquake activity, a hypothesis that is tested for two case studies of induced
seismicity in the Rift. The spatiotemporal properties of the two earthquake sequences
are studied in terms of the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) theory and the
NESM framework and indicate a non-linear sub-diffusion process in the spatial
relaxation of the earthquake activity in the region. Overall, the present thesis, based on
the principles of generalized statistical mechanics, provides a physical rationale for the
scaling properties of fault and earthquake populations in the Corinth Rift and
demonstrates how these properties can provide new insights into the evolution of the
earthquake activity and the fault network in the region.
iii
Acknowledgements
I would like to acknowledge a number of people for their help and support over the
course of my doctoral studies. I am truly grateful to my supervisors, Prof. Peter
Sammonds and Prof. Filippos Vallianatos, for their guidance and support. It was their
constructive ideas and sound advice that encouraged me to accomplish much of this
work and to publish my research.
I would like to extend my gratitude to the members of UCL Institute for Risk and
Disaster Reduction for their valuable feedback on my research and for the numerous
fruitful discussions on disaster risk reduction. I would like to thank Rosie, Leisa,
Barbara, Jen, Celine and Danuta for their administrative and IT support. I am also
grateful to all students and staff in the UCL IRDR and the UCL Earth Sciences for
making this journey both fun and constructive. Special thanks to Giorgos and Alexis,
who shared with me the extensive journey on non-extensive statistical mechanics. I am
truly grateful to Alexis for her guidance and assistance in the rock physics laboratory. I
would also like to thank all the people at the TEI of Chania for their kindness and
hospitality during my stay there.
I would like to acknowledge fruitful and constructive discussions with Prof. Gerald
Roberts. I am also grateful to Francesco Pacchiani and Vasilios Karakostas for kindly
sharing with me their earthquake datasets. I acknowledge financial support from the
IRDR, the UCL Graduate School, the UCL Earth Sciences Department, the Thales
project and the AGU for attending a number of conferences and training courses.
Finally, I would like to express my true gratitude to my family and friends. Without
your love and endless support nothing of all these would be possible.
The Thesis was examined by Dr. Luciano Telesca and Prof. Ferruccio Renzoni.
The PhD project was funded by the State Scholarships Foundation (IKY) through the
action “Program for scholarships provision I.K.Y. through the procedure of personal
evaluation for the 2011-2012 academic year” from resources of the educational program
“Education and Life Learning” of the European Social Register and NSRF 2007- 2013.
iv
Table of Contents
Declaration................................................................................................................... ii
Abstract ....................................................................................................................... iii
Acknowledgements .....................................................................................................iv
List of Figures ..............................................................................................................ix
List of Tables ........................................................................................................... xvii
Chapter 1 Introduction................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Thesis Outline ..................................................................................................... 7
Chapter 2 Earthquake Statistics and Generalized Statistical Mechanics .............. 9
2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 9
2.2 The concept of Fractals ....................................................................................... 10
2.3 Scaling in Fault and Earthquake Populations .................................................. 13

2.3.1 Scaling properties of fault attributes .................................................................... 13
2.3.2 Frequency-size distribution of earthquakes.......................................................... 17
2.3.3 Spatiotemporal scaling properties of seismicity................................................... 21
2.3.4 Stochastic models of seismicity ........................................................................... 26
2.4 Critical phenomena and Self-Organized Criticality ......................................... 28
2.5 Statistical Mechanics and Information Theory ................................................. 32

2.5.1 Foundations of Statistical Mechanics ................................................................... 32
2.5.2 Information Theory .............................................................................................. 36
2.5.3 Statistical Mechanics and Earthquakes ................................................................ 37
2.6 Generalized Statistical Mechanics ...................................................................... 39

2.6.1 The non-additive entropy Sq ................................................................................. 39
2.6.2 Optimizing Sq ....................................................................................................... 42
2.6.3 Applications to Seismicity ................................................................................... 49
2.6.3.1 Spatiotemporal description ........................................................................ 49
2.6.3.2 Earthquake magnitudes ............................................................................. 52
2.6.3.3 Fault populations ....................................................................................... 61
v
2.7 Summary ............................................................................................................... 62
Chapter 3 Statistical Mechanics of the Fault Network........................................... 64
3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 64
3.2 Tectonic setting..................................................................................................... 67

3.2.1 Regional Geodynamics ........................................................................................ 67
3.2.2 Physiography and Geological setting ................................................................... 67
3.2.3 Deformation patterns in the Rift........................................................................... 72
3.2.3.1 Short-term deformation ............................................................................. 72
3.2.3.2 Long-term deformation ............................................................................. 74
3.3 Fault dataset ......................................................................................................... 75

3.3.1 Fault map and fault trace-lengths ......................................................................... 75
3.3.2 Possible errors in the dataset ................................................................................ 81
3.4 Generalized Statistical Mechanics Formalism .................................................. 85
3.5 Analysis of the fault dataset ................................................................................ 86

3.5.1 The cumulative distribution function ................................................................... 86
3.5.2 Possible biases in the fault-length distribution ..................................................... 87
3.5.3 Scaling properties of the fault population ............................................................ 88
3.5.4 Scaling properties for the short-term strain rates ................................................. 88
3.5.5 Scaling properties for long-term deformation ...................................................... 92
3.5.6 Robustness of the results ...................................................................................... 96
3.6 Discussion............................................................................................................ 102

3.6.1 Discussion of the results..................................................................................... 102
3.6.2 Implications for fault growth.............................................................................. 102
3.6.3 Implications for the fault network evolution in the Rift ..................................... 105
Chapter 4 Earthquake-Size Distribution ............................................................... 111
4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 111
4.2 Earthquake activity in the Corinth Rift........................................................... 112
4.3 Seismic Networks and Earthquake Catalogues .............................................. 114
4.4 Implementing the G-R and F-A models to earthquake data ......................... 119
4.4.1 Estimating the a and b values in the G-R scaling relation ................................. 119
4.4.2 Estimating the aE and qE values in the fragment-asperity model ....................... 121
vi
4.5 Analysis of the earthquake-size distribution ................................................... 122
4.5.1 Dataset ................................................................................................................ 122
4.5.2 Seismicity Declustering ..................................................................................... 126
4.5.3 Earthquake-size distribution in the Corinth Rift ................................................ 128
4.5.4 Expected seismicity rates ................................................................................... 133
Chapter 5 Temporal Properties of Seismicity and the Inter-event Time

Distribution .......................................................................................................... 137
5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 137
5.2 Datasets ............................................................................................................... 138

5.2.1 The HUSN catalogue ......................................................................................... 139
5.2.2 The CRLN catalogue.......................................................................................... 142
5.3 The Inter-event Times Distribution ................................................................. 145

5.3.1 Inter-event Times Histograms ............................................................................ 145
5.3.2 A dynamic mechanism for the inter-event time distribution .............................. 153
5.4 Multifractality in the earthquake time series .................................................. 156

5.4.1 Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ..................................................... 157
5.4.2 Multifractal Analysis of the inter-event time series ........................................... 160
5.4.3 The effect of the threshold magnitude................................................................ 167
5.4.4 Temporal variations ........................................................................................... 168
5.5 Discussion............................................................................................................ 171
Chapter 6 Earthquake Diffusion ............................................................................ 174
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 174
6.2 Continuous Time Random Walk approach to earthquake diffusion............ 176
6.3 The 2010 Efpalion earthquakes ........................................................................ 179

6.3.1 Spatiotemporal scaling properties ...................................................................... 182
6.3.2 Aftershock diffusion........................................................................................... 185
6.3.3 Discussion .......................................................................................................... 186
6.4 The 2001 Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence .................................... 189
6.4.1 Spatiotemporal scaling properties ...................................................................... 191
6.4.2 Diffusion of the swarm sequence ....................................................................... 193
6.4.3 Discussion .......................................................................................................... 194
vii
Chapter 7 Discussion ............................................................................................... 196
7.1 Summary of the Results..................................................................................... 196
7.2 Wider Implications ............................................................................................ 200

7.2.1 Implications for fault growth and fault network evolution ................................ 200
7.2.2 Implications for earthquake physics and the evolution of seismicity................. 202
7.2.3 Implications for earthquake hazard in the Rift ................................................... 204
7.3 Directions for Future Work .............................................................................. 205
Chapter 8 Conclusions............................................................................................. 208
Appendices ................................................................................................................ 211

Appendix A: Table of Faults ....................................................................................... 211
Appendix B: Results for the Declustered Datasets ..................................................... 228
Appendix C: Matlab Codes ......................................................................................... 235
List of References ..................................................................................................... 243
viii
List of Figures
2.1 The classic techniques used to estimate the fractal dimension in a fractured medium
(Bonnett et al., 2001).............................................................................................11
2.2 Traces of fault populations in a range of scales (Main, 1996)................................15
2.3 The various functions that are most frequently used to describe the distribution n(w)
of a fault property w (Bonnett et al., 2001)............................................................16
2.4 Fault displacement (D) vs. length (L) for various published fault datasets (Schlische
et al., 1996)...........................................................................................................17
2.5 Number of earthquakes per year 𝑁̇ with magnitudes greater than m as a function of
m on global scale (Turcotte, 1997)........................................................................19
2.6 Cumulative number of earthquakes with moment magnitudes (m) equal or greater
than m as a function of m, for the shallow earthquakes in the 1977-2010 Harvard
Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog, in the Japan-Kurile-Kamchatka zone (Kagan
and Jackson, 2013)...............................................................................................20
2.7 The probability distribution PS,L(T) of inter-event times T for various threshold
magnitudes and spatial scales of California seismicity (Bak et al., 2002)...........24
2.8 a) Probability distributions Dxyt(τ) of inter-event times τ in California, for several

stationary periods and various spatial scales, b) Probability distributions D(τ) of
inter-event times τ for various spatial scales L and threshold magnitudes mc
(Corral, 2003).......................................................................................................25
2.9 Graphic representation of the slider-block model (Rundle et al., 2003)..............31
2.10 The q-exponential function for various values of q on a) log-linear axes and b)
log-log axes........................................................................................................45
2.11 The q-Gaussian distribution for various q-values, in a) linear axes and b) log-
linear axes..........................................................................................................48
2.12 The cumulative distribution of inter-event times P(>τ) for the Aigion aftershock
sequence (Vallianatos et al., 2012b)..................................................................51
ix
2.13 Illustration of the relative motion of two irregular fault planes (a, b) and the
fragments of size r that fill the space between them (Sotolongo-Costa and
Posadas, 2004)....................................................................................................53
2.14 a) Normalized cumulative distribution of earthquake magnitudes in Greece. b)

Normalized cumulative magnitude distribution for the de-clustered dataset
(Antonopoulos et al., 2014)................................................................................57
2.15 a) Probability distribution function (PDF) of incremental “avalanche” sizes x,

normalized to the standard deviation σ, for the OFC model on a small world
topology and on a regular lattice. b) PDF of incremental earthquake energies for
the Northern California earthquake catalogue (Caruso et al., 2007)...................60
2.16 Normalized cumulative distribution function P(>L) of fault lengths in Mars and
the corresponding fit according to the q-exponential distribution, for a)
compressional faults and b) extensional faults (Vallianatos, 2013a).................61
3.1 Fraction of active faults as a function of increasing strain and the main stages of
fault population evolution (Spyropoulos et al., 2002)..........................................65
3.2 The broader area of Greece and the main tectonic setting......................................68
3.3 Topography of the Corinth Rift region..................................................................69
3.4 a) Simplified geology and the tectonic framework of the Corinth Rift. b) Geodetic
“horizontal extension rates” across the Rift. c) Late Quaternary uplift rates. d)
Summation of upper-crust extension (black) and whole-crust extension along three
transects in the rift.................................................................................................70
3.5 The total sediment thickness in the Gulf of Corinth estimated from seismic
reflection profiles by Taylor et al. (2011)..............................................................71
3.6 Evolution of the Corinth Rift since onset of distributed extension in the Pliocene
(Leeder et al., 2012)..............................................................................................73
3.7 Spatial coverage of the published geologic maps that were used to compile the fault
dataset in the Corinth Rift.....................................................................................77
3.8 Mapping fault traces using DEM...........................................................................79
3.9 Map showing the seismic lines of geophysical surveys in the Corinth Rift..........80
x
3.10 a) Uninterpreted and b) Interpreted seismic profile from the west Gulf of Corinth
(Bell et al., 2008)................................................................................................82
3.11 Simplified geology and the fault network in the Corinth rift...............................83
3.12 Histogram of frequency versus fault trace-lengths of the fault dataset................84
3.13 Cumulative number of fault lengths for the entire fault population in the Corinth
Rift.....................................................................................................................89
3.14 Simplified geology and the fault network in the Corinth Rift, indicating the current
high and low strain rate settings.........................................................................90
3.15 Cumulative number of fault trace-lengths for the high and low-strain settings,
according to the short-term deformation pattern in the Rift...............................91
3.16 Cumulative number of fault trace-lengths a) for the current high strain rate setting
and b) for the low strain rate setting...................................................................92
3.17 The western, central and eastern zones of the Rift considered as the long-term
strain regimes.....................................................................................................93
3.18 Cumulative number of fault trace-lengths for the eastern, central and western
zones of the Rift respectively.............................................................................94
3.19 Cumulative number of fault trace-lengths, a) in the western zone, b) in the central
zone and c) in the eastern zone............................................................................96
3.20 Analysis on synthetic faults datasets that scale according to the q-exponential
distribution, with parameter values of q=1.15 and L0=2.9...............................100
3.21 Analysis on synthetic faults datasets that scale according to the q-exponential
distribution, with parameter values of q=1.25 and L0=2.1...............................101
3.22 Summary of the observed properties in the different strain zones of the
Rift...................................................................................................................104
3.23 The stress field around a normal fault (Gupta and Scholz, 2000b)...................105
3.24 The main stages of fault network evolution according to the numerical model of
Cowie (1998b)..................................................................................................106
3.25 Cross-section indicating the geometry and interactions of faults at depth, at the
western zone of the Corinth Rift (Bell et al., 2008).........................................109
xi
4.1 The 1964 – 2014 earthquake activity in Greece for Mw ≥ 4, according to the NOA
bulletins..............................................................................................................112
4.2 Historic earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6 in the Corinth Rift since 1694
AD......................................................................................................................114
4.3 1964 – 2013 time series of a) the number of seismic stations of the NOA network,
b) the annual rate of events, c) a proxy to the completeness magnitude Mc (Mignan
and Chouliaras, 2014).........................................................................................115
4.4 Seismic stations of HUSN operating in the Corinth Rift.....................................116
4.5 Spatial variations of Mc for four periods of the regional earthquake catalogue
produced by NOA and HUSN (Mignan and Chouliaras, 2014).........................117
4.6 The CRL network.................................................................................................118
4.7 Seismicity map for the 1967 – 2014 shallow earthquakes (depth ≤ 30 km) in the
Corinth Rift.........................................................................................................123
4.8 Cumulative number of events for 1967 – 2014, a) for the entire and the declustered
dataset, b) for Mw ≥ 3.8.......................................................................................125
4.9 Rates of earthquake magnitudes (Mw) over time for 1967 – 2014......................126
4.10 Cumulative seismic moment (in dyn∙cm) over time..........................................127
4.11 Cumulative frequency – magnitude distribution (squares) and the non-cumulative

(incremental) frequency – magnitude distribution (triangles) on a log-linear
scale. The solid line represents the G-R scaling relation..................................129
4.12 The estimated b-values and their uncertainties as a function of the minimum
magnitude M0...................................................................................................130
4.13 The cumulative frequency – magnitude distribution and the corresponding fits
according to the F-A model for various values of the minimum magnitude
M0.....................................................................................................................132
4.14 The estimated qE values and their uncertainties (95% confidence intervals) as a
function of the minimum magnitude M0..........................................................132
4.15 The misfits between the observed distribution and the G-R scaling relation and
the fragment – asperity (F-A) model, for various values of M0.......................133
xii
4.16 The annual probability of an earthquake of magnitude M occurring in the Corinth
Rift, according to the G-R scaling relation and the F-A model.......................134
4.17 The recurrence time of an earthquake of magnitude M in the Corinth Rift,

according to the G-R scaling relation and the F-A model...............................135
5.1 The 2008–2013 earthquake activity in the Corinth rift.......................................140
5.2 a) Magnitude (ML) rate per day and b) seismicity rate per day and the cumulative
number of events, for the 2008 – 2013 earthquake activity in the Rift..............141
5.3 The inter-event time series τi versus their index number i on semi-log axes, for the
2008 – 2013 earthquake activity in the Rift.......................................................142
5.4 Spatial distribution of seismicity in the West Corinth Rift according to the CRLN
catalogue.............................................................................................................143
5.5 a) Magnitude rate per day and b) seismicity rate per day and the cumulative number
of events, for the 2001 – 2013 earthquake activity in the West Corinth Rift,
according to the CRLN catalogue.......................................................................144
5.6 The inter-event time series τi versus their index number i on semi-log axes, for the
2001 – 2013 earthquake activity in the western part of the Rift........................145
5.7 The histogram of inter-event times τ for the HUSN dataset, in a) linear bin widths
and linear axes, b) linear bin widths and log-log axes, c) logarithmic bin widths on
log-log axes, d) logarithmic bin widths on log-log axes, with each frequency
normalized by the bin width and for total sum of frequencies equal to
one......................................................................................................................147
5.8 The histogram of inter-event times τ for the CRLN dataset, in a) logarithmic bin
widths on log-log axes, b) logarithmic bin widths on log-log axes, with each
frequency normalized by the bin width and for total sum of frequencies equal to
one......................................................................................................................148
5.9 Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the HUSN and
CRLN datasets and the corresponding fits according to the q-generalized gamma
distribution and the gamma distribution............................................................150
5.10 Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the HUSN, CRLN
and NOA datasets and for various time periods and threshold magnitudes and the
xiii
corresponding fits according to the q-generalized gamma distribution and the
gamma distribution...........................................................................................151
5.11 Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for various time
periods of stationary seismicity in the Rift.......................................................152
5.12 The logarithm of the fluctuation function Fq(n) versus the logarithm of the
segment sizes n for a) the HUSN dataset and b) the CRLN dataset.................162
5.13 The range of generalized Hurst exponents h(q) and their respective errorbars for
various values of q, for a) the HUSN dataset and b) the CRLN dataset. The mean
h(q) that resulted from 10 randomly shuffled copies of the original inter-event
time series is also plotted..................................................................................163
5.14 The mass exponent τ(q) for the various orders of q, for the HUSN dataset and b)
the CRLN dataset. The mean τ(q) that resulted from 10 randomly shuffled copies
of the original inter-event time series is also shown.........................................164
5.15 The singularity spectrum f(a) as a function of the Hölder exponent a, for a) the
HUSN dataset and b) the CRLN dataset. The mean singularity spectrum f(a),
which resulted from ten randomly shuffled copies of the original inter-event time
series, is also plotted for the two datasets respectively.....................................166
5.16 Singularity spectrum’s width W as a function of the threshold magnitude Mth, for
the CRLN and the HUSN datasets....................................................................168
5.17 Singularity spectrum’s width W, as a measure of the degree of multifractality over

time, for a) the HUSN dataset and b) the CRLN dataset..................................170
6.1 Spatial distribution of the 2010 Efpalion earthquake sequence...........................180
6.2 Coulomb stress changes due to the coseismic slip a) of the first main shock and b)
of the second strong event...................................................................................181
6.3 The cumulative distribution of inter-event times P(>τ) for the Efpalion earthquake
sequence.............................................................................................................184
6.4 The cumulative distribution of inter-event distances P(>r) for the Efpalion
earthquake sequence...........................................................................................185
xiv
6.5 The mean squared displacement x 2 (in km) from the first strong event (triangles)
and the second strong event (circles) of their respective subsequent seismicity over
the course of time t (in days) on log-log axes.....................................................186
6.6 The cumulative number of aftershocks as a function of time after the first strong
event and the corresponding fit according to the modified Omori formula........188
6.7 Map of the Western Corinth Rift showing the 2001 seismicity (from Pacchiani and
Lyon-Caen, 2010). The south cluster of events corresponds to the 2001 Agios
Ioannis swarm sequence.....................................................................................190
6.8 The 3-D spatial distribution of the Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm
sequence.............................................................................................................191
6.9 Cumulative distribution function P(>τ) of the inter-event times τ for the Agios
Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence...................................................................192
6.10 Cumulative distribution function P(>r) of the inter-event distances r for the Agios
Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence...................................................................193
6.11 The mean squared displacement x 2 (in km) of the earthquake swarm sequence
over the course of time t (in days) on log-log axes, with the first event of the
sequence at the origin.......................................................................................194
7.1 Summary of the observed properties in the different strain zones of the Corinth Rift
(reproduced from Fig.3.22).................................................................................201
7.2 Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the HUSN, CRL and
NOA datasets, for various time periods and threshold magnitudes and the
corresponding fits according to the q-generalized gamma distribution and the
gamma distribution (reproduced from Fig.5.10).................................................203
B.1 Aftershock identification intervals in a) space and b) time, as a function of the

mainshock magnitude.........................................................................................228
B.2 Cumulative and non-cumulative (incremental) frequency – magnitude distribution

for the declustered 1967 – 2014 NOA dataset....................................................229
B.3 Cumulative frequency – magnitude distribution for the declustered 1967 – 2014
NOA dataset and the corresponding fits according to the F-A model for various
values of the minimum magnitude M0...............................................................229
xv
B.4 Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the declustered
HUSN and CRLN datasets and the corresponding fits according to the q-
generalized gamma distribution and the gamma distribution............................230
B.5 Multifractal analysis of the inter-event time series for the declustered HUSN
dataset.................................................................................................................232
B.6 Multifractal analysis of the inter-event time series for the declustered CRLN
dataset.................................................................................................................234
xvi
List of Tables
2.1 Spatiotemporal scaling properties of seismicity according to the q-exponential

distribution for various earthquake catalogues and tectonic environments..........50
2.2 Analyses of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes according to the

q-exponential distribution and the fragment-asperity model, for various earthquake
catalogues and tectonic environments...................................................................58
3.1 Summary of the marine geophysical surveys and the corresponding studies, which
were used to compile the fault dataset offshore....................................................81
A.1 Table of Faults.....................................................................................................211
xvii
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 Introduction
Earthquakes originate from the deformation and sudden rupture of parts of the
lithosphere due to the external forces that arise from plate tectonic motions. The
abruptness of the earthquake phenomenon and its devastating consequences in the
anthropogenic environment have always attracted peoples’ fear and wonder. In an ever-
growing world, the societal and economic effects of large earthquakes can be
substantial. For instance, the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (Mw = 9.0) and
tsunami caused more than 230,000 deaths, while the 2011 Tohoku (Japan) earthquake
(Mw = 9.1) and tsunami killed more than 22,000 people, caused the nuclear meltdown
of Fukushima power plant and economic losses of about US$235 billion, as those were
estimated by the World Bank (e.g., Sachs et al., 2012). Despite the great scientific
effort, understanding the physics that govern the earthquake generation process and the
subsequent prediction of future earthquakes still represent an outstanding challenge for
scientists (Nature debates, 1999; Scholz, 2002; Kanamori, 2008).
Chapter 1 Introduction
The complexity1 of earthquakes is manifested in the wide range of spatial and temporal
scales and the nonlinear dynamics that are incorporated in the evolution of seismicity
(Keilis-Borok, 1990; Kagan, 1994). Earthquake ruptures occur on a complex network
of fractures and faults that vary from microcracks, to major fault zones and plate
boundaries, whereas the temporal scales that are incorporated in the process vary from
seconds (during dynamic rupture), to the hundreds, thousands and millions of years that
characterize the repeat times of characteristic earthquakes and the evolution of fault
zones and tectonic plate boundaries, respectively (Scholz, 2002; Rundle et al., 2003).
While the history of a seismic rupture can be reconstructed a posteriori through the
analysis of the seismic waves recorded in seismographic stations, knowledge of the
dynamics that lead to the initiation and propagation of a rupture through a fault system,
giving rise to an earthquake, is really limited. The microscopic laws that govern friction,
the rupture evolution through a highly heterogeneous medium and the coupling of these
processes with chemical alterations and rock-fluid interactions still remain unclear
(Main et al., 1992; Sammonds et al., 1992; Sammonds, 2005; Dieterich, 2007; Sornette
and Werner, 2009).
Despite the complexity of the earthquake generation process, the collective properties
of fault and earthquake populations exhibit some universal scaling properties that are
valid and consistent. The most prominent are scale-invariance and fractality that are
manifested in the frequency-size distribution of earthquakes, the statistics of fault
systems and the spatiotemporal properties of seismicity (e.g., Main, 1996; Turcotte et
al., 2007b). The frequency-size distribution of earthquakes generally follows the
empirical Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) scaling relation (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944),
which resembles power-law scaling and fractality in the distribution of the dissipated
seismic energy and the fault rupture areas, limited in each case by the size of the
seismogenic system (Turcotte, 1997; Scholz, 2002). Power-law scaling and fractal
geometries also characterize a variety of fault attributes, such as the distribution of fault
trace-lengths or fault displacements (e.g., Sholz and Cowie, 1990; Bonnett et al., 2001).
These empirical observations of seismicity and faulting have led to the consideration
of the earthquake generation process as a critical point phenomenon undergoing a
1
Although an exact definition of complexity does not exist, a well-accepted one for a complex
system is that of a system containing many interdependent constituents that interact nonlinearly
(Latora and Marchiori, 2004).
2
phase-transition (Rundle et al., 2003; Sornette, 2006). In this context, the Earth’s crust
has been considered as a self-organized critical (SOC) system that spontaneously
organizes in a dynamical, statistically stationary state, which is characterized by power-
law earthquake size distributions, fractal geometries and long-range interactions (Bak
and Tang, 1989; Sornette and Sornette, 1989; Main, 1996; Sornette, 1999).
Although the scaling properties of seismicity can be reproduced by statistical models

or SOC, the fundamental challenge that still remains elusive in earthquake physics is to
understand the transition from the microscopic scale and the laws that govern friction,
rupture propagation, plasticity, fluid migration, chemical reactions and so on, to the
macroscopic scale of large earthquakes, fault networks and tectonic plate boundaries
(Main, 1996; Sornette and Werner, 2009; Kawamura et al., 2012). Clearly, to specify
completely this problem, one would have to incorporate a large number of degrees of
freedom and knowledge of exact dynamics in the Earth’s crust that are generally
inaccessible (Rundle et al., 2003). Although the physics of each individual earthquake
is not well understood and their definitive prediction is extremely difficult, an ensemble
of many events clearly demonstrates organization patterns that can be studied with
different approaches than the physics of the individual events. These observations
motivate the statistical mechanics approach to seismicity. Statistical mechanics
constitutes one of the pillars of contemporary physics that remarkably establishes the
link between the mechanical microscopic laws and the macroscopic (large-scale)
description of a physical system. By using the mathematical tools of probability theory
and statistics, statistical mechanics can be used to estimate the macroscopic properties
of large populations from the specification of the relevant microscopic constituents and
their interactions (Sornette and Werner, 2009).
Originally, statistical mechanics and the associated concept of entropy (S) were used in
thermodynamics and the kinetic theory of gases. The concept of entropy was later
incorporated into information theory as a measure of uncertainty (Shannon, 1948) and
since mid-1950’s it has been extended to other fields beyond classic thermodynamics
in order to provide a general principle for inferring the least biased probability
distribution from limited information (Jaynes, 1957). According to statistical
mechanics principles, the relative probability that the system possesses a given state
can be estimated by optimizing (i.e., maximizing) the entropy, subject to our limited
3
knowledge about the system that is expressed through the constraints. Optimization of
the classic definition of entropy due to Boltzmann and Gibbs (SBG), for a large number
of independent non-interacting elements, yields the exponential (Boltzmann)
distribution as the most probable state for a wide class of equilibrium systems, although
the theory has been extended beyond the classic thermal equilibrium state (e.g.,
Dugdale, 1996; Kondepudi and Prigogine, 1998). Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical
mechanics have been applied to earthquake physics in a series of works, which address
the theory as a variational principle for deriving the large-scale properties of earthquake
populations (Main and Burton, 1984; Main, 1996) or to investigate the thermodynamic
state of the crust (Rundle et al., 1995; 1997; Main and Al-Kindy, 2002; Main and
Naylor, 2010), although the theory fails to describe fragmentation processes and the
scaling properties observed in the size of the fragments (Englmant et al., 1987).
However, there is an important class of complex out-of-equilibrium systems that violate

some of the essential properties of BG statistical mechanics (Bouchaud and George,
1990; Gell-Mann, 1994; Zaslavsky, 1999; Sornette, 2006). The macroscopic behavior
of such systems, instead of the Boltzmann distribution, typically presents power-law
distributions with heavy tails, enhanced by (multi) fractal geometries, long-range
memory effects, intermittency or large fluctuations between the various possible states;
properties that seem to correspond well to the phenomenology of earthquakes. For such
systems, where BG statistical mechanics has limited applicability, a generalized
framework has been introduced by Tsallis (1988), termed as non-extensive statistical
mechanics (NESM). NESM is a generalization of BG statistical mechanics and its main
advantage is that it considers all-length scale correlations among the elements of the
system, leading to broad distributions with power-law asymptotic behavior and heavy
tails. NESM has been widely applied across various non-linear dynamic systems during
the last two decades (Tsallis, 2009a and references therein). Consistent results between
the theory and observations have established the generalized framework as a powerful
tool for describing the complex behavior of physical systems by specifying a priori the
relevant microscopic configurations.
Given the non-linear dynamics that control the evolution of fragmentation processes
and the phenomenology that fault and earthquake populations exhibit, NESM has been
considered as the appropriate statistical mechanics framework to describe their
4
ensemble. In a series of works during the last decade, NESM has been successfully
applied to earthquake-related phenomena and other geophysical problems.
Applications concern the size distribution of the tectonic plates areas (Vallianatos and
Sammonds, 2010), the distribution of fault lengths in Crete (Vallianatos et al., 2011a)
and Mars (Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2011; Vallianatos, 2013a), the spatiotemporal
and size distributions of acoustic emissions (AE) in rock experiments under triaxial
deformation (Vallianatos et al., 2012a), the spatiotemporal properties of seismicity at
regional (Abe and Suzuki, 2003; 2005; Darooneh and Dadashinia, 2008; Vallianatos et
al., 2012b, Vallianatos et al., 2013; Papadakis et al., 2013) and global scale (Vallianatos
and Sammonds, 2013) and the size distribution of earthquakes (Sotolongo-Costa and
Posadas, 2004; Silva et al., 2006; Vilar et al., 2007; Darooneh and Mehri, 2010; Telesca
and Chen, 2010; Telesca, 2010a; 2010b; 2010c; 2011; 2012; Vallianatos et al., 2013;
Papadakis et al., 2013; Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2013). Other applications in rock
physics concern laboratory electromagnetic emissions (Vallianatos et al., 2012c),
stress-induced electric current fluctuations (Cartwright-Taylor et al., 2014), pressure-
stimulated currents (Vallianatos and Triantis, 2012; 2013; Stergiopoulos et al., 2013)
and the relaxation of depolarization current emissions (Vallianatos et al., 2011b). SOC
models that have been used to model the earthquake phenomenology, like the slider-
block model (Burridge and Knoppoff, 1964; Rundle et al., 2003) and the Olami-Feder-
Christensen model (Olami et al., 1992), also exhibit properties consistent with NESM
(Caruso et al., 2007; Hasumi, 2007; 2009; Zhang et al., 2011). Complex correlations
during the preparatory phase of large earthquakes have also been studied using NESM
approaches in the size distribution of earthquakes (Telesca, 2010c; Minadakis et al.,
2012; Vallianatos et al., 2014; Papadakis et al., 2015) or in electromagnetic emissions
from the crust (Kalimeri et al., 2008; Papadimitriou et al., 2008; Contoyiannis and
Eftaxias, 2008; Eftaxias, 2010; Potirakis et al., 2011). Other related geophysical
applications concern the size distribution of landslides (Chen et al., 2011), rockfalls
(Vallianatos, 2013b), risk assessments (Vallianatos, 2009) and geomagnetic reversals
(Vallianatos, 2011). In all these studies, it has been shown that NESM is a consistent
framework for studying the geodynamic behavior of the Earth’s crust, as it is expressed
through a plethora of phenomena, such as earthquakes, fragmentation processes or
electric current and electromagnetic emissions.
5
The aim of the present thesis is to study the fundamental properties of fault and
earthquake populations in the Corinth Rift (Central Greece) and gain new insights into
the physics that govern fault growth and the evolution of earthquake activity in the area
by applying the novel approach of NESM. My study on this particular region is
motivated by, i) the fact that the Corinth Rift is one of the most seismically active areas
in Europe, imposing an increasing seismic risk for the population and infrastructures,
ii) the “rich” phenomenology that characterizes the earthquake activity in the area, such
as fluctuating behavior and intermittency, clustering effects both in space and time,
strong earthquakes followed by aftershock sequences, frequent earthquake swarms
triggered by fluid diffusion at depth and stress diffusion phenomena among others
(Latoussakis et al., 1991; Drakatos and Latoussakis, 1996; Rigo et al., 1996; Bernard
et al., 1997; Papadopoulos et al., 2000; Hatzfeld et al., 2000; Telesca et al., 2002; Lyon-
Caen et al., 2004; Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010; Bourouis and Cornet, 2009;
Karakostas et al., 2012), iii) the active rifting processes that have resulted in the
formation of an impressive normal fault system, making the area an ideal natural
laboratory for studying the physical processes of fault growth (Armijo et al., 1996;
Roberts, 1996; Moretti et al., 2003; Bell et al., 2009; Ford et al., 2013). These properties
constitute the Corinth Rift as an “ideal” study area for testing the applicability of NESM
to earthquake physics.
In addition, the results of the NESM based analysis are complemented and compared
with known empirical scaling relations in geophysics, such as power-laws and
exponentials or the G-R scaling relation for the earthquake size distribution. Previous
studies on the temporal properties of seismicity have applied NESM on the cumulative
distribution of inter-event times (i.e., the time intervals between successive
earthquakes) (e.g., Abe and Suzuki, 2005; Vallianatos et al., 2012b; Papadakis et al.,
2013). The present approach rather focuses on the probability density function, which
is typically used in probabilistic earthquake hazard assessments. This approach is
complemented by the multifractal analysis of the earthquake time series, in an attempt
to elucidate the local fluctuations, the degree of heterogeneous clustering and the
correlations in the temporal evolution of seismicity. Furthermore, the applicability of
NESM to earthquake diffusion phenomena is investigated for two case studies of
induced seismicity in the Rift, the first being related to stress diffusion caused by the
occurrence of the 2010 Efpalion earthquakes (Karakostas et al., 2012) and the second
6
to pore-pressure diffusion as the triggering mechanism of the 2001 Agios Ioanis

earthquake swarm sequence (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010).
Overall, the present thesis is inspired by the words of Sornette and Werner (2009): “the
study of the statistical physics of earthquakes remains wide-open, with many significant
discoveries to be made. The promise of a holistic approach – one that emphasizes the
interactions between earthquakes and faults – is to be able to neglect some of the
exceedingly complicated micro-physics when attempting to understand the large scale
patterns of seismicity. The marriage between this conceptual approach, based on the
successes of statistical physics and seismology, thus remains a highly important domain
of research”.
1.2 Thesis Outline
The thesis is divided into 8 chapters, which address the applicability of the generalized
statistical mechanics framework to earthquake physics in the Corinth Rift, present the
analysis and results, discuss the implications that arise regarding fault growth, the
dynamic evolution of seismicity and earthquake hazard assessments in the Rift, draw
the conclusions and highlight possible directions for future research. Chapter 2 reviews
the statistics of fault and earthquake populations and the connections to physical
mechanisms that have been proposed in the literature. It then introduces the concept of
entropy and the statistical mechanics approach to earthquake physics and provides the
physical rationale for the application of generalized statistical mechanics to earthquake-
related phenomena. The associated theory, as it applies to earthquake data, is described
and the various related studies on seismicity and faulting are reviewed.
The generalized statistical mechanics analysis of fault and earthquake populations in

the Corinth Rift and the associated results are given in Chapters 3 to 6. In particular,
Chapter 3 introduces the tectonic setting and the deformation patterns in the Corinth
Rift and describes the fault dataset used in the analysis. The results of the scaling
properties of the fault system, as a function of increasing strain in the Rift, are then
discussed in terms of fault growth and fault network evolution. The earthquake data
that are used in the thesis, the analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution of
7
earthquakes and the related hazard assessments are discussed in Chapter 4. Chapter 5
investigates the temporal properties of the earthquake activity in the Rift, in terms of
generalized statistical mechanics and multifractal analysis. Earthquake diffusion
phenomena are studied in Chapter 6, for two case studies of triggered seismicity, which
have been associated with stress diffusion, the first, and fluid diffusion at depth, the
second.
Chapter 7 discusses the outcomes of the thesis and the research questions that have been
addressed, as well as possible implications that arise for earthquake hazard assessments
in the Rift, earthquake physics and possible directions for future research. Finally,
Chapter 8 reviews the results of the thesis and draws the main conclusions.
8
Chapter 2
Earthquake Statistics and Generalized

Statistical Mechanics
2.1 Introduction
In the present chapter the empirical scaling properties of fault and earthquake
populations are reviewed and the emergence of generalized statistical mechanics in
deriving these large-scale properties from the specification of the relevant microscopic
states is described. Essentially, the review initiates with the definition of fractals and
multifractals that will be met throughout this chapter. The concept of fractals has widely
been applied to fracturing phenomena and constitutes one of the principal properties of
seismicity. Some of the main theories, which have been developed to provide physical
mechanisms for the empirical scaling properties that are observed in seismicity, such
as critical point phenomena and self-organized criticality are briefly reviewed. The
foundations of statistical mechanics and the concept of entropy as a variational principle
for making predictions are then introduced. The rest of the present chapter is dedicated
to describe the emergence of the generalized framework, termed as non-extensive
statistical mechanics (NESM), as a consistent framework applicable to a class of
complex out-of-equilibrium systems with fractal structures and/or long-range
Chapter 2 Earthquake Statistics and Generalized Statistical Mechanics
interactions. It is exactly these properties that constitute NESM as an appropriate

framework for studying fracturing phenomena and seismicity. The optimization of the
generalized entropic function for deriving probability distributions of faults and
earthquake populations, subject to the constraints of our limited knowledge on the
physics of the process, is described and the applications of the theory to related
phenomena are thoroughly reviewed.
2.2 The concept of Fractals
The concept of fractals has become quite popular in Earth Sciences due to the self-
similar properties that natural objects, like drainage networks or rock fragments,
frequently present. The fractal geometry was introduced by Benoit Mandelbrot in his
pioneering 1967 paper on the self-similar structure of the coast of Britain (Mandelbrot,
1967). Scale-invariant objects are thought to be self-similar, where the objects repeat
themselves at multiple scales and in all directions (isotropic scale-invariance). If scale-
invariance is anisotropic, where the object scales differently in the various directions
(i.e., horizontally and vertically), then the object is termed as self-affine (e.g., Malamud
and Turcotte, 1999). Mandelbrot defines a fractal set in strict mathematical terms as “a
set for which the Hausdorff - Besicovitch dimension strictly exceeds the topological
(Euclidean) dimension” (Mandelbrot, 1982). The distribution of objects with fractal
geometry is described by the power-law distribution, as this is the only distribution that
does not include a characteristic length-scale (Mandelbrot, 1982).
In geophysics, the concept of fractals has widely been applied, in order to provide
quantifiable measures that characterize the complex structure of earthquake activity and
fault networks (e.g., Smalley et al., 1987; Hirata, 1989). Fractality has been associated
with the power-law size distributions that fragmented materials and earthquakes
present, which mathematically takes the form (Turcotte, 1997):
N (l )  Cl  D , (2.1)
10
where N(l) is the number of objects (i.e., fragments) with characteristic linear
dimension greater than l, C is a proportionality constant and D is the power-law
exponent, known as the fractal dimension that takes non-integer values in the space E-
1 < D < E, where E is the Euclidean dimension (Turcotte, 1997).
Various methods can be used for determining the fractal dimension. Two commonly
used are the “mass density” and the “box-counting” methods that are illustrated in
Fig.2.1 for the case of a fractured medium (from Bonnett et al., 2001). In these methods,
a number of circles or boxes, of an appropriate radius or size r, are used to cover the
fractal object in the medium. The mass dimension can be estimated as the total fracture
length (L) included in circles of varying sizes, with radius r (Fig. 2.1a). The total length
L should vary with radius r as L  r Dm , where Dm is the mass dimension. In the box-
counting method, the number of boxes (N) of size r that intersects the fractal object is
counted for various sizes of r (Fig. 2.1b) and should vary as N  r  D , where D is the
fractal dimension (detailed description from Bonnett et al., 2001).
Figure 2.1: Fig. 3 from Bonnett et al. (2001). The classic techniques used to estimate
the fractal dimension in a fractured medium: a) the “mass dimension”, where the total
length of fractures lying in a circle of radius r is calculated; b) the “box-counting”
method, where the medium of size Λ is covered by a regular mesh grid of size r (two
grids are shown, with different mesh sizes – the boxes with fractures inside them are
shaded and empty boxes are open); c) the multifractal analysis derived from the box-
counting method, where each box is weighted by the total length of fractures that is
included in it – darker boxes have greater fracture lengths.
11
In nature though, most fractals in complex systems are expected to be heterogeneous

(Mandelbrot, 1989). In this case, rather than simple fractal geometry, more complex
scaling relations are needed to quantify the complex structure of the system and the
application of multifractal tools becomes essential. Multifractal tools are primarily used
to quantify the degree of heterogeneous clustering and intermittency in the fractal set
of interest (Main, 1996). Usually, a multifractal set involves a range of scales with
different individual scaling exponents (Sornette, 2006).
The standard method for defining the multifractal structure of a set is to calculate the
moments of order q of a probability distribution pi(r). The probability distribution pi(r)
is defined as the sum of the object of interest, within an array of boxes of size r
(Fig.2.1c). In the case of the fractured medium illustrated in Fig.2.1, pi(r) is defined as
(Bonnett et al., 2001):
Li (r )
pi (r )  n , (2.2)
 Li (r )
n 1
where n is the total number of boxes, Li(r) is the total fracture length in each box and
the sum in the denominator gives the total cumulative length of all fractures over all
boxes. The moments of order q of pi(r) are then defined as:
n
M q (r )    pi (r ) .
q
(2.3)
n 1
If scaling holds for various q, then Mq(r) will scale with r as:
 q 1 Dq
M q (r ) ~ r , (2.4)
where Dq can be considered as the generalized fractal dimension (Feder, 1988). For the
various q, the range of Dq is then estimated. For a monofractal series, Dq will have the
same value for the various values of q. By definition, for q=0, Dq=D, which is also
known as the capacity dimension.
For a multifractal set, the singularity spectrum f(a) can also be estimated as the fractal
dimension of singularities with strength a (Feder, 1988). In practice, f(a) denotes the
number N(r) of boxes having similar local scaling that is characterized by the same
exponent a (Sornette, 2006). The generalized fractal dimension Dq and the singularity
spectrum f(a) are considered as fundamental characteristics of a multifractal set. The
12
calculation of Dq and f(a) is described analytically in Chapter 5, where multifractal

analysis is applied to the earthquake time series in the Corinth Rift.
2.3 Scaling in Fault and Earthquake Populations
2.3.1 Scaling properties of fault attributes
Faults are key components of the Earth system as they affect the evolution of the Earth’s
lithosphere and surface and are the sites of large earthquakes (e.g., Beroza et al. 2005).
Fault populations exhibit scaling relations, which describe the statistics of the
frequency-size distribution of fault attributes, such as trace-lengths and displacements,
the relation between the length of a fault and its displacement and the spatial
distribution of faults (Cowie, 1998a). In numerous studies the scaling properties of fault
populations are thought to be scale-invariant over several orders of magnitude, so that
the cumulative distribution of fault trace-lengths exhibits a power-law distribution of
the form (King, 1983; Main et al., 1990; Sornette and Davy, 1991; Cladouhos and
Marrett, 1996; Main, 1996; Turcotte, 1997):
N ( L)  AL D , (2.5)
where N(>L) is the number of faults with length greater than L, A is a constant and D is
the scaling exponent. Scale-invariance is supported by the similar pattern that the traces
of fault populations exhibit across a wide range of scales that may vary from the
laboratory scale to plate-boundary faults (Fig. 2.2) (Main et al., 1990; Main, 1996;
Sornette, 2006). However, even if scale-invariance does hold, it is restricted to a finite
range of scales that are related to the finite size of the fractured system. The other
argument that favors scale-invariance in fault populations is the frequency-magnitude
distribution of earthquakes that is discussed in the next section (§ 2.3.2). The
assumption of scale-invariance in fault systems led various researchers to extrapolate
the observable scaling properties to scales below the limit of resolution and estimate
the contribution of small faults to the total strain (Scholz and Cowie, 1990; Walsh et
al., 1991; Marrett and Allmendinger, 1991).
13
The self-similar structure across a wide range of scales (Fig. 2.2) and the power-law
frequency-size distribution (Eq. 2.5) have been considered as strong indications of
fractal geometries in fracture and fault populations (Turcotte, 1997). Fractal geometry
has been used as a first-order approximation to describe the complex patterns of fault
systems (Sornette, 2006) and physical models on fractal fault growth have been
developed (Sornette and Davy, 1991; Cowie et al., 1993a; Miltenberger et al., 1993;
Sornette et al., 1994). Cowie et al. (1993a) used a two-dimensional numerical model to
show how fractal fault patterns emerge as the result of correlations in the fault network,
induced from both short- and long-range elastic interactions in an heterogeneous
material (random heterogeneity) that is deformed under constant velocity (see also
Miltenberger et al., 1993; Sornette et al., 1994). Cowie et al. (1995) used a similar
model and the box-counting method (Fig.2.1c) to show that as deformation progresses
and strain localizes on a few large faults, a multifractal structure emerges as the
superposition of a fractal distribution of fault displacements onto a fractal fault pattern.
Fractal geometry and the box-counting method have been used extensively to describe
the spatial distribution of faults in a region (Fig.2.1b) (e.g., Yielding et al., 1996). If
scaling holds (see § 2.2), then a fractal dimension of D < 2 indicates localized
deformation, while for D = 2 the fault pattern is more homogeneous over the map area
(Cowie, 1998a).
In other natural fault systems though, the exponential function has been found to best
describe N(>L) (Cowie, 1998a). The exponential function in this case is expressed as:
N ( L)  A exp( L L0 ) , (2.6)
where A is a constant and L0 a characteristic length scale. Cowie et al. (1993b) studied
fault networks in mid-ocean ridges and concluded that the frequency-size distribution
of fault trace-lengths is better described by the exponential function. Gupta and Scholz
(2000a) found this type of scaling for the fault network in the high-strain zone in the
Afar Rift and Vétel et al. (2005) considered that fault trace-length scaling in the Turcana
Rift (Northern Kenya) is more consistent with the exponential function. Furthermore,
numerical models (Spyropoulos et al., 2001; Hardacre and Cowie, 2003) and laboratory
experiments (Spyropoulos et al., 1999; Ackermann et al., 2001) indicated the transition
from power-law to exponential scaling as a function of increasing strain. This transition
14
is further discussed in Chapter 3, where the scaling properties of the fault population in
the Corinth Rift are studied.
Figure 2.2: Figure 1 from Main (1996). Traces of fault populations in a range of scales,
from laboratory experiments (Fig. 2.1c and d) to plate boundary faults, like the San
Andreas Fault system (Fig. 2.1a) (Original data from Tchalenko [1970], Howard et al.
[1978] and Shaw and Gartner [1986]).
Other functions that have been used in the literature to describe the frequency-size
distribution of faults are the lognormal and gamma functions (reviewed in Bonnett et
al., 2001). The distribution n(w) of a fault property w (trace-length, displacement),
according to the various scaling functions, is shown in Fig. 2.3 (after Bonnett et al.,
15
2001). Davy (1993) compared the performance of these functions for fitting the
frequency-size distribution of the San Andreas Fault system. Davy concluded that the
gamma function best fits the observed distribution and argues that although the
lognormal function also provides a good fit, its physical significance is questionable
since it presents a decrease in the density of small fault lengths (Fig. 2.3). This
contradicts geological evidence, which indicates a large number of small faults (Davy,
1993).
Figure 2.3: Fig. 1 from Bonnett et al. (2001). The plot illustrates the various functions
(power-law, exponential, gamma and lognormal) that are most frequently used to
describe the distribution n(w) of a fault property w.
The other scaling relation that has been widely studied is the one between the trace-
lengths of faults (L) and their displacements (D). Several studies (reviewed by Cowie,
1998a) indicate that fault lengths and displacements are strongly correlated. Some
researchers have proposed that the relationship between D and L is the power-law of
the form D=cLn, with exponents of n=1.5 or n=2 (Walsh and Watterson, 1987; Marrett
and Allmendinger, 1991; Gillespie et al., 1992). By compiling a “global” fault data set,
Schlische et al. (1996) showed that the relationship between D and L is almost linear
16
over several orders of magnitude (Fig. 2.4). Schlische et al. also showed that the average
D/L ratio (c) is 0.01, which implies that the maximum displacement of a fault is 1% of
its length (Fig. 2.3). The strong correlation between D and L implies that the distribution
of fault displacements follows similar scaling functions as L. Indeed, the scaling
function that is most frequently reported in the literature is power-law (Childs et al.,
1990; Pickering et al., 1996), although exponential scaling has also been found in the
distribution of fault displacements (Dauteuil and Brun, 1996).
Figure 2.4: a) Displacement (D) vs. length (L) on double logarithmic axes, for various
published fault datasets. A family of curves, for various c and n (see text), are also
shown. Abbreviations: N-normal faults, T-thrust faults, SS-strike-slip faults. b) Size
distribution of fault trace-lengths for the Solite dataset and the power-law fit (linear
curve) to the data (from Schlische et al., 1996).
2.3.2 Frequency-size distribution of earthquakes
17
Since the beginning of 20th century and the early years of modern seismology, it became
apparent that small earthquakes are considerably more frequent than larger ones (e.g.,
Utsu, 1999). In 1944, Gutenberg and Richter established empirically a scaling relation
that describes the frequency of earthquakes in California (Gutenberg and Richter,
1944). This is the well-known Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) scaling relation:
log N ( M )  a  bM , (2.7)
where log is the logarithm to the base of 10, N(>M) is the number of earthquakes with
magnitude M greater than M in a given region and a, b are positive constants. The
constant a represents the regional level of seismicity and b, known as the seismic b-
value, is the slope of the distribution that estimates the proportion of small events to
large events. Earthquake magnitude is estimated from the seismic waves recorded at
seismographic stations and includes a variety of measures such as moment (Mw), local
(ML), surface-wave (Ms) and body-wave (mb) magnitude, depending on the part of the
seismic wave that is used to determine its value (Lay and Wallace, 1995). The G-R
empirical relation is valid for various earthquake sequences, scales and tectonic
environments. Regional variations in b-values have been found (Schorlemmer et al.,
2005), but generally b takes values close to 1 (Frohlich and Davis, 1993; Kagan, 1999).
Eq.(2.7) can be alternatively written as:
N ( M )  10a bM , (2.8)
which expresses a power-law dependence between the number of earthquakes N with

magnitude greater than M and M. The seismic energy (E) can be related to the
earthquake magnitude (M) according to the relationship:
log E  cM  d , (2.9)
with a global average of c=1.5 (Kanamori, 1978; Hanks and Kanamori, 1979). Eq. (2.8)
can then be written in terms of the seismic energy as:
N ( E ) ~ E   1 , (2.10)
2
with 𝛽 = 3 𝑏. The latter expression has been considered as the indication of scale-
invariance in the earthquake magnitude distribution or the distribution of seismic
18
energies (Main, 1996; Turcotte, 1997). Furthermore, the dissipated seismic energy E,
in terms of the seismic moment Mo, is related to the surface area of a fault with the
relationship Mo = μΔA, where μ is the rigidity of the material, A the surface area of the
fault break and Δ the average slip during the earthquake (Kanamori, 1978). According
to the previous definition of Mo and Eq.2.10, the number of earthquakes N(>A) with
rupture areas greater than A has a power-law dependence on the area A (Fig.2.5)
(Turcotte, 1997). According to the definition of a fractal set given in Eq.2.1 and for A
~ l2 and c = 1.5, Turcotte (1997) showed that the fractal dimension D is simply twice
the b-value, D = 2b. The latter indicates that the empirical G-R scaling relation (Eq.2.7)
is equivalent to a fractal distribution (Aki, 1981).
Figure 2.5: Fig. 4.1 from Turcotte (1997). Number of earthquakes per year 𝑁̇ with
magnitudes greater than m as a function of m, on global scale (solid line). The square
root of the rupture area A is also given. The cumulative distribution of moment
magnitudes m is from the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue, for the period
January 1977 to June 1989. The dashed line represents the G-R scaling relation (Eq.
2.3) for the values of b=1.11 and a=6 × 108 yr-1.
19
The latter relation, which indicates a positive correlation between the fractal dimension
D and the b-value, has been debated in several studies (e.g., Hirata, 1989; Wyss et al.,
2004; Chen et al., 2006). Wyss et al. (2004) found that the latter relation only holds for
locked fault segments of the San Andreas Fault system near Parkfield and Chen et al.
(2006) found results consistent to the previous relation for the aftershock sequence of
the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. However, other researchers found a negative
correlation between the fractal dimension and the b-value in the Tohoku region, Japan
(Hirata, 1989), in the João Câmara region, Brazil (Henderson et al., 1994) and in the
Geysers geothermal area, California (Henderson et al., 1999). The latter studies suggest
that the relation between the fractal dimension and the b-value is not simple, but it
might change according to the regional distribution of stress (Singh et al., 2008).
Figure 2.6: Fig. 1 from Kagan and Jackson (2013). Cumulative number of earthquakes
with moment magnitudes (m) equal to or greater than m as a function of m (solid line),
for the shallow earthquakes in the 1977-2010 Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor
Catalogue, in the Japan-Kurile-Kamchatka zone (Flinn-Engdahl zone 19). The total
number of events is 425 for the threshold magnitude of mth=5.8. The G-R scaling
relation is shown as the red dotted line, with β=0.610. The dashed lines represent the
modified G-R scaling relation (MGR) for two corner magnitudes, mcs=8.7 (left line,
cyan) and mcm=9.4 (right line, blue).
20
The extrapolation of the G-R scaling relation to larger earthquake magnitudes is

uncertain due to finite energy release rates that can be related to the stress regime, the
thickness of the seismogenic zone and the fault zone geometry (Bell et al., 2013). An
upper bound or a taper may appear in the frequency-magnitude distribution that limits
the maximum expected earthquake magnitude. This upper bound has been modeled by
modifying the G-R scaling relation to include an exponential tail or a taper (Kagan and
Jackson, 2013; Bell et al., 2013). The modified G-R scaling relation (MGR) then takes
the form of a gamma distribution:
N ( E ) ~ E   exp( E mc ) , (2.11)
which exhibits an exponential tail for a characteristic or “corner” seismic moment mc

(Bell et al., 2013). The G-R and MGR scaling relations that model the shallow (≤ 70
km) earthquake activity in the Japan-Kurile-Kamchatka zone for the period 1977-2010,
are shown in Fig.2.6 (from Kagan and Jackson, 2013).
2.3.3 Spatiotemporal scaling properties of seismicity
Earthquakes are considered as a complex spatiotemporal phenomenon due to high

variability in the time and space of their occurrence (e.g., Telesca et al., 2003). The
most prominent feature in the spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity is the presence of
clustering. Spatial clustering is exemplified by the concentration of seismicity along
the tectonic plate boundaries and regional fault networks (e.g., Scholz, 2002; Utsu,
2002). Temporal clustering is best observed in aftershock sequences, where a
significant increase in seismicity rate occurs immediately after the occurrence of a
strong earthquake (e.g., Utsu et al., 1995). The aftershock production rate
n(t )  dN (t ) dt (where N(t) is the number of earthquakes in time t after the major
event) has been found empirically to decay as a power-law with time t according to the
modified Omori formula (Omori, 1894; Utsu et al., 1995):
n(t )  K  t  c  ,
p
(2.12)
where K and c are constants and p is the power-law exponent. This expresses a short-
term clustering effect that can be seen in almost every seismic catalogue (Vere-Jones,
21
1970). The background activity of main earthquakes in a seismic region is often

considered as uncorrelated and statistically independent in time. Models that express
randomness, like the general Poisson model, have been used to describe the temporal
properties of this background seismicity (Gardner and Knopoff, 1974; Console and
Murru, 2001). In other cases, long-term clustering effects and power-law scaling have
been found to characterize long inter-event times (Kagan and Jackson, 1991; Mega et
al., 2003). Livina et al. (2005) studied one global and five regional earthquake
catalogues and found statistical dependence and clustering effects in both short and
long inter-event times that according to the authors is indicative of memory in the
earthquake generation process.
Fractal geometry has in many cases been used to characterize the degree of clustering
in seismic sequences and laboratory acoustic emissions (Kagan and Knoppof, 1980;
Smalley et al., 1987; Hirata et al., 1987; Hirata, 1989). Spatiotemporal variability and
heterogeneous clustering effects are quantitatively consistent with multifractal
structures (e.g., Geilikman et al., 1990; Telesca and Lapenna, 2006). The multifractal
structure of inter-event time series is evident in various earthquake sequences (Godano
and Caruso, 1995; Godano et al., 1997; Telesca et al., 2002; Enescu et al., 2006; Telesca
and Lapenna, 2006). Multifractal analysis has been used to provide second-order
approximations to the correlations of seismicity and to enlighten the local clustering
effects. In particular, properties like non-stationarity and intermittency are common in
earthquake time series, such that the clustering degree varies with time. These
variations can be studied by using multifractal approaches, which can then provide an
appropriate tool for identifying the dynamical changes of seismicity. This attribute has
in fact been used in various studies to detect possible temporal changes in the
multifractal dimension prior to large earthquakes (Hirabayashi et al., 1992; Nakaya and
Hashimoto, 2002; Kiyashchenko et al., 2003).
In addition, many studies and discussions since 2002 have focused on whether inter-
event times follow particular distributions or exhibit universality in their scaling
properties. The discussion was stimulated by the work of Bak et al. (2002), who
proposed a unified scaling law for earthquakes that considers the G-R frequency-size
distribution, the fractal distribution of epicenters and the Omori scaling of aftershocks.
By dividing California into spatial cells of various sizes L2 and by calculating inter-
22
event times τ in each cell for various cut-off magnitudes, the authors showed that the
resulting inter-event time distributions fall onto the same curve (Fig. 2.7), if inter-event
b d
times τ (x-axis) are rescaled according to the expression S L f and the probabilities
PS,L(τ) (y-axis) according to τ a, where a is associated with the Omori exponent
b d
(Eq.2.12). According to the authors, the expression S L f is a measure of the average
number of earthquakes with magnitude greater than log (S) that occur in the time
interval τ, b is the G-R b-value and df the spatial fractal dimension.This curve that
expresses the unified law for earthquakes has the form:
PS , L ( )    a f ( S b L f ) .
d
(2.13)
The latter expression (Eq. 2.13) exhibits a power-law regime for over 8 orders of
magnitude (linear part in Fig.2.7) and a rapidly decaying regime, which is consistent
with an exponential decaying function. The latter implies uncorrelated earthquakes for
large enough inter-event distances and/or times, while the power-law regime indicates
correlated earthquakes within a window of time τ and spatial size L2 (Bak et al., 2002).
The unified scaling law of Bak et al. (2002) was further studied by Corral (2003). Corral
(2003) used the same data as Bak et al. (2002) to propose that inter-event time
distributions f(τ) depend only on the seismicity rate and obtained the collapse of
distributions onto the same curve by multiplying inter-event times and dividing the
probabilities by the seismicity rate (Fig. 2.8a). When mixing different seismicity rates,
Corral (2003) derived a distribution that exhibits two power-law regions (Fig. 2.8b),
while for stationary periods, where the seismicity rate does not fluctuate, the
distributions can be fitted by the gamma function of the form (Fig. 2.8a):
f ( )  C  1 exp     0  . (2.14)
In a later work, Corral (2004) used a wide variety of earthquake catalogues to show that
inter-event time distributions for stationary periods fall onto the same curve and are
well described by the gamma function (Eq. 2.14) for the values of γ = 0.67 ± 0.05, δ =
0.98 ± 0.05, τ0 = 1.58 ± 0.15 and C = 0.50 ± 0.10, if the distributions are rescaled
according to the seismicity rate. He derived the same result for non-stationary
aftershock sequences in California by rescaling in this case with the time varying event
23
rate. These results motivated Corral (2004) to claim universality in the temporal
occurrence of earthquakes.
Figure 2.7: Fig. 4 from Bak et al. (2002). The probability distribution PS,L(T) of inter-
event times T (for T > 38 sec) for various threshold magnitudes and spatial scales of
California seismicity, rescaled as shown in the axes. The Omori exponent a = 1, the G-
R b-value of b = 1 and the spatial fractal dimension of df =1.2 have been used in order
to collapse the observed distributions onto the same curve.
Universality in the temporal occurrence of earthquakes has been tested and questioned
in several studies (Davidsen and Goltz, 2004; Molchan, 2005; Hainzl et al., 2006;
Saichev and Sornette, 2006; 2007; Touati et al., 2009). Davidsen and Goltz (2004)
analyzed data from California and Iceland and found an additional power-law regime
for the shortest inter-event times, although their data did not fall onto one universal
curve at large inter-event times. Molchan (2005) proved mathematically that if such a
universal law exists it should be exponential, in strong contradiction to observations.
Saichev and Sornette (2006; 2007) used the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS)
model to derive the shape of inter-event time distribution and found that this is only
24
a)
b)
Figure 2.8: a) Fig. 2 from Corral (2003). Probability distributions Dxyt(τ) of inter-event
times τ (τ ≥ 38 sec) in California, for several stationary periods and different spatial
scales, after rescaling with the seismicity rate r. b) Fig. 4 from Corral (2003).
Probability distributions D(τ) of inter-event times τ (τ ≥ 38 sec) for different spatial
scales L and threshold magnitudes mc, with df = 1.6 and b = 0.95. The straight lines
indicate the double power-law behavior, with exponents 0.9 and 2.2.
approximately universal and of a gamma form. Hainzl et al. (2006) analyzed both real
and synthetic catalogues produced with the ETAS model and concluded that the shape
25
of the distribution is strongly dependent on the rate of background and aftershock

activity. According to the authors, a Poissonian background activity combined with
triggered aftershocks that scale according to the modified Omori relation are sufficient
to reproduce the observed scaling. Touati et al. (2009) used a similar approach to show
that the distribution exhibits a bimodal character of gamma-distributed correlated
aftershocks and exponentially distributed uncorrelated activity at short and long inter-
event times respectively. Touati et al. showed that this distribution is not universal and
is strongly affected by the size of the area, where larger areas exhibit a higher initiation
rate of uncorrelated events and smaller areas exhibit highly non-random inter-event
times.
Scaling has also been shown in the distribution of spatial distances between successive
earthquakes (inter-event distances). Davidsen and Paczuski (2005) found power-law
scaling with an exponent of 0.6 at ranges of 20 – 500 km in the inter-event distance
distribution of California seismicity, regardless of the threshold magnitude, which
might imply a dynamic triggering effect at distances far beyond the aftershock zone
scaling (e.g., Kagan, 2002). Corral (2006) studied the inter-event distance distribution
for stationary periods in California and global seismicity and found an additional
power-law regime with a smaller exponent at large inter-event distances indicating
bimodality, irrespective of the threshold magnitude. The crossover point between the
two power-law regimes is different in the two catalogues (200 km for global and 15 km
for California seismicity), implying a scale-dependent maximum triggering distance of
correlated aftershocks at shorter distances and uncorrelated events at longer distances
(Corral, 2006).
2.3.4 Stochastic models of seismicity
Various stochastic2 models of seismicity have been developed in order to model the
phenomenology of earthquake occurrence and to provide the basis of probabilistic
earthquake hazard assessments. In these models, earthquakes are considered as a point-
process in time and space, marked with the magnitude of the event. A conditional
2The term stochastic refers to a random object that takes values from a given subset to model
the evolution of the system in time and space.
26
intensity function 3 λ(t|Ht) is used to describe the point process and estimate the
probability rates as a function of time and the history of the process. Stationary Poisson
models (Gardner and Knopoff, 1974) are commonly used to form the basis of any
probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment. The stationary Poisson model considers
the background earthquake activity in a region, where aftershock clusters have been
removed, as an uncorrelated Poisson process with constant seismicity rate over time. A
Poisson process considers uncorrelated and identically distributed inter-event times that
are drawn from an exponential distribution until the time of the next large event. In this
case, the conditional intensity function λ is constant and independent of the time or
history. Other models that are frequently used in earthquake hazard assessments, like
the non-stationary Poisson model and the renewal model, consist of generalizations of
the Poisson process (reviewed in Zhuang et al. 2012).
Another well-known stochastic model is the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS)
model that incorporates some of the empirical scaling relations of seismicity, like the
G-R relation and the modified Omori formula (Ogata, 1988). The basic idea of the
ETAS model is that each earthquake triggers its own aftershocks, which in turn can
trigger their own events, resulting in a superposition of cascades of triggered events
that cluster in space and time (Ogata, 1988; Helmstetter and Sornette, 2002a). The
conditional intensity function λ(t|Ht) is given by:
exp  a  m  m0  
  t | Ht     K0  , (2.15)
 t  ti  c 
p
ti t
where μ (earthquakes per unit time) represents a stationary Poisson seeding rate of
background activity and K0 the productivity rate. The coefficient a represents the
efficiency of an earthquake of magnitude m to trigger aftershocks, m0 is the lower
threshold magnitude and c and p are the parameters of the modified Omori formula (Eq.
2.12). A similar stochastic model to ETAS that instead of the productivity rate K0 uses
3
Ht represents the history of the process up to time t, but not including t (Zhuang et al., 2012).
27
Bath’s relation 4 for magnitude-dependent aftershock production, is the branching

aftershock sequences (BASS) model (Turcotte et al., 2007a).
Although stochastic models can efficiently reproduce some of the empirical patterns of
seismicity, such as the G-R scaling of earthquake magnitudes, the modified Omori
aftershock decay rate or Bath’s relation and the spatial diffusion of aftershocks (e.g.,
Helmstetter and Sornette, 2002a), the physics that govern these processes are missing
from the models. In contrast, the statistical physics approach to seismicity strives to
derive the statistical models and empirical observations from the specification of the
microscopic laws of friction, rupture, rock-water interactions, chemical reactions and
so on, at the microscopic scale (Sornette and Werner, 2009).
2.4 Critical phenomena and Self-Organized Criticality
The universal validity of power-law scaling and fractal or multifractal structures in

seismicity has led to the development of a variety of physical models of seismogenesis
as a critical point phenomenon undergoing a phase-transition (see the review from
Sornette, 2006). In the context of statistical physics, the critical point is associated with
power-law scaling and strong correlations acting at all scales in the system (long-range
correlations); properties that are produced as the system approaches the critical point in
the order-disorder phase transition (Bruce and Wallace, 1989; Main, 1996; Sornette,
2006). A characteristic example is the liquid (more ordered state) – gas (more
disordered state) phase transition where the two phases coexist5 at a specific critical
point, characterized by a critical temperature Tc and pressure Pc. At this critical point,
correlations of the liquid-gas molecules emerge at all scales, characterized by power-
law scaling (Bruce and Wallace, 1989). Another example is magnets (e.g., Ising
models) where, below the critical temperature (Curie temperature), a more organized
4
Bath’s relation describes the size of the largest expected aftershock with respect to the main
shock that is thought to be constant. Generally, it is considered to be 1.2 magnitude-scales
smaller (Bath, 1965).
5
At a temperature-pressure phase diagram, the critical point is the end point of the liquid-gas
boundary line. Beyond the critical point, the system enters a supercritical state, where the two
phases are indistinguishable.
28
state, with power-law size distribution and fractal scaling (ferromagnetic), emerges
from random and chaotic (paramagnetic) behavior (Bruce and Wallace, 1989). Such
critical behavior emerges as repeated long-range interactions between the microscopic
elements of the system lead to a macroscopic self-similar state (Sornette, 2006).
Systems that present critical behavior and similar scaling properties are thought to
belong to the same “universality” class (Bruce and Wallace, 1989).
In the previous examples, the system is driven to the critical point by the precise tuning
of some external variables, such as the temperature or pressure. However, in other
complex physical systems there is no external tuning and the system organizes itself to
the critical point. Such mechanism is termed as self-organized criticality (SOC),
introduced by Bak et al. (1987). Bak et al. (1988) used a cellular automaton model6 of
a sand pile that is supplied with new grains at a constant rate, to illustrate the SOC
mechanism. When the sand pile sufficiently builds up and the pile reaches some critical
angle, new added grains cause avalanches of all sizes that obey a power-law size
distribution (Bak et al., 1988). The dynamic evolution of the sand pile cannot reach
equilibrium, but instead remains in a statistically stationary but metastable state, which
is characterized by power-law size distributions and fractal geometries (Bak et al.,
1988; Bak, 1996; Main, 1996; Sornette, 2006). The fundamental properties of a
particular class of out-of-equilibrium systems that exhibit SOC are (Sornette, 2006): 1)
slow driving rates, 2) highly non-linear behavior, 3) sensitivity to small changes that
could trigger large events, 4) globally stationary statistical properties characterized by
power-law distributions and fractal geometries (including long-range correlations). The
strikingly similar properties that earthquakes exhibit led various workers to consider
the Earth’s crust as a SOC system (Bak and Tang, 1989; Sornette and Sornette, 1989;
Ito and Matsuzaki, 1990). The deformation rates of the crust involve a wide range of
time scales that vary from cm/yr, at the borders of tectonic plates, to m/s during brittle
failure and propagation of rupture. An earthquake occurs when the slowly accumulated
stress in the crust reaches some critical threshold of failure, causing stress drops that
are relatively small in comparison to the regional tectonic stress levels (Abercombie,
6
Cellular automata are mathematical models consisting of a grid of elements. These models
are used in various disciplines to study the complex dynamic behavior of natural systems (e.g.,
Wolfram, 1984).
29
1995). Even small stress perturbations are known to trigger earthquakes, even at
relatively large distances (e.g., Stein et al., 1994; Gomberg and Davis, 1996), reflecting
criticality and long-range interactions in the earthquake generation process.
Additionally, earthquake sizes scale according to the G-R scaling relation that
resembles a power-law size distribution (§ 2.3.2). These properties make the earthquake
phenomenon one of the most relevant natural paradigms of SOC.
A family of slider-blocks has been used to model the behavior of seismogenic faults
and their relevance to SOC (e.g., Rundle et al., 2003). This type of model has been
introduced by Burridge and Knopoff (1967) and typically consists of a set of blocks
that are connected to each other via springs (Fig.2.9). The blocks are pulled over a
surface at a constant velocity by a driver plate, attached via springs (Fig.2.9). When the
spring force reaches some critical level due to the motion of the driving plate, the blocks
slip, representing the slip on faults due to the motion of tectonic plates. The blocks
interact with their neighbors, so that slip on one block can trigger the propagation of
slip across several blocks. Although simplistic, the slider-block model can reproduce
some of the empirical properties of seismicity. Its numerical implementation, using the
cellular automaton approach, exhibits critical behavior, similar to SOC, with a
frequency-size distribution of slips similar to the G-R scaling relation (Bak and Tang,
1989; Carlson and Langer, 1989; Ito and Matsuzaki, 1990; Olami et al., 1992). By
changing the model parameters, such as the spring stiffness or the plate-driving velocity
and the friction coefficients, various different behaviors can be observed, indicating
some dependence on the initial tuning of the model that does not meet the demands of
true SOC (Rundle and Klein, 1993; Main, 1996). Furthermore, Huang and Turcotte
(1990) showed that when the symmetry in the model is broken (i.e., unequal masses),
the slider-blocks exhibit deterministic chaos 7 . This result implies that earthquakes
might exhibit chaotic behavior, similar to the behavior of the atmosphere or oceans
(Turcotte, 1997; Rundle et al., 2003). In this case, absolute prediction of an earthquake
in a deterministic sense is not possible; only probabilistic approaches can be used for
describing upcoming earthquake events (Geller et al., 1997). Although there is general
agreement that this type of model can be used to study the dynamical behavior of fault
systems, in reality slider-blocks represent crude approximations of natural fault systems
7Deterministic chaos refers to chaos theory that was developed to describe the dynamic
behavior of systems with high sensitivity to the initial conditions.
30
and the complex interactions that occur on a wide range of scales. Beyond this, various
mechanisms can be used to produce power-laws and SOC (e.g., chapter 14 in Sornette,
2006) and this property alone does not make them an appropriate model for earthquakes
(Kagan, 1994).
Figure 2.9: Graphic representation of the slider-block model. The blocks with mass m
are interconnected via springs (spring constant kc) and are pulled across a surface by a
driver plate at constant velocity V. Each block is connected to the driver plate via
springs of spring constant kL (from Rundle et al., 2003).
Characterization of the earthquake generation process as a critical phenomenon has

been used extensively as the physical basis for the earthquake phenomenology.
Furthermore, this hypothesis presents some important implications for earthquake
hazard assessments (Main, 1995; 1996; Rundle et al., 2003; Sornette and Werner,
2009). Within the SOC context, the Earth’s crust self-organizes into a stationary critical
or near-critical state, with intermittent fluctuations of individual earthquakes of power-
law size distributions that correspond to the G-R scaling relation (§ 2.3.2). Earthquakes
cluster on a fractal or multifractal system of faults (§ 2.3.1) and long-range spatial and
temporal correlations emerge as the result of elastic stress interactions. In a critically
stressed crust, even small stress perturbations are sufficient to trigger earthquakes,
consistent with the SOC hypothesis (e.g., Grasso and Sornette, 1998). All these
properties contradict the Poisson model that is frequently used as the basis of
probabilistic earthquake hazard assessments (§ 2.3.4). Furthermore, the regional
31
variations of the power-law exponent (b-value) may indicate that the crust is globally
in a state below the critical point, which has been termed as “sub-criticality” (Al-Kindy
and Main, 2003). However, Jaume and Sykes (1999) and Sammis and Sornette (2002)
suggest that criticality can be reached locally on a fault system prior to a large
earthquake. The fault system then moves away from criticality until long-range stress
interactions build up again. This hypothesis explains observations of accelerating
moment release (Bowman et al., 1998), where an increase of intermediate-size events
may occur prior to a large event (see also Zoller et al., 2001). Although accelerating
moment release has been observed in various earthquake sequences, this phenomenon
is not universal, in the sense that it does not occur systematically prior to large events
and thus cannot be used for earthquake prediction (e.g, Turcotte et al., 2007b).
2.5 Statistical Mechanics and Information Theory
2.5.1 Foundations of Statistical Mechanics
Statistical mechanics, together with the associated concept of entropy, constitutes one
of the pillars of contemporary physics that establishes the remarkable relation between
the microscopic states of a system and its macroscopic description. Originally, entropy
was used in thermodynamics in the mid-1800’s, in an effort to understand the kinetic
theory of gases and to describe their macroscopic behavior. At that time, this had
important implications in the efficiency of heat engines on producing work and
consequently to the industrial revolution. In 1865, Rudolf Clausius (1822-1888)
extended the work of Sadi Carnot (1796-1832) on heat engines and coined the term
entropy (S) to describe the unique state of a system in thermal equilibrium8:
dQ
dS  , (2.16)
T
8
Thermal equilibrium is the state, as it is specified by macroscopic variables such as
temperature or pressure, in which an isolated system evolves to through irreversible processes.
At this state no further physical or chemical changes occur with time (e.g., Kondepudi and
Prigogine, 1998).
32
where dS is the change in entropy, dQ is the heat exchange with the exterior (dQ > 0 if
heat is absorbed by the system and dQ < 0 if it is discarded) and T is the temperature.
Entropy S depends only on the initial and final states and in the ideal case of a fully
reversible cycle the change in entropy is zero9. Eq.(2.16) states that for a reversible heat
flow Q under constant temperature, the change in entropy is Q/T. In the more realistic
case of an irreversible cycle, a fraction of heat (Q) is converted to work and the total
change of entropy is positive (dS > 0). These limitations on converting heat to work led
to the seminal second law of thermodynamics that can be stated as “the sum of entropy
changes of a system with its surroundings can never decrease” 10 (see the analytic
review on the derivation of the second law by Kondepudi and Prigogine, 1998).
The thermodynamic foundation of entropy is entirely macroscopic and can be defined

in terms of few parameters, such as the volume, temperature or pressure. However, the
mechanical description of a system, in terms of the microscopic state of particles and
their behavior, would require a huge number of variables (~6 x 1023 for a gas). A
solution to this problem is the statistical approach, where suitable averages of the
properties of individual particles can be used to determine the behavior of the system
and link the microscopic configurations to the large (macroscopic) scale. Ludwig
Boltzmann (1844 – 1906) was the first to adopt such an approach and link the
mechanics of the different microstates with the macroscopic properties of a system and
essentially thermodynamics, introducing the concept of statistical mechanics (e.g.,
Dugdale, 1996; Kondepudi and Prigogine, 1998). Boltzmann interpreted entropy
statistically, in terms of the different microstates, in the celebrated expression:
W
S B  k B  pi ln pi , (2.17)
i 1
9
This expresses Carnot’s theorem on the maximum efficiency of reversible engines.
10
The second law of thermodynamics has many different statements, summarized by Clausius
as “the entropy of the universe approaches a maximum”.
33
where SB is the total entropy of the system11, pi is the probability of the i th microstate
W
with pi 1
i  1 , W is the total number of discrete microstates and kB is Boltzmann’s
constant (kB = 1.381 x 10-23 J K-1). In the particular case of equal probabilities
( pi  1 W , i) , the entropy SB becomes:
SB  kB ln W , (2.18)
which is the celebrated expression of entropy, carved on Boltzmann’s grave in Vienna.

As Eq.2.18 indicates, entropy increases logarithmically with the number of microstates
W. A larger number of available microstates in the system corresponds to higher
entropy. Entropy can then be regarded as a measure of disorder in the system. In 1902,
J.W. Gibbs (1839-1903) redefined Eq.2.17 for more general systems (not just gases) by
introducing the theory of generalized statistical ensembles. The significance of the
ensembles theory was that it enabled the estimation of a complete set of thermodynamic
parameters of a system from the purely mechanical properties of its microscopic
elements (Pathria and Beale, 2011). The work of Gibbs established the notion of
statistical mechanics and Eq.2.17 is frequently referred to as Boltzmann-Gibbs entropy
(SBG).
Since the present thesis deals with the statistical mechanics of continuous variables, the
following expressions are referred to the continuous case. For a continuous variable x
that takes values in the space [0, ∞], entropy SB takes the integral form:

S B  k B  p( x) ln p( x)dx . (2.19)
0
Boltzmann asserted that the probabilities of the most probable state at equilibrium are
those that maximize SB and satisfy the constraints of normalization of p(x) (e.g., Pressé
et al., 2013):
11
The subscript B has been assigned to Boltzmann’s entropy SB to distinguish it from the
thermodynamic entropy S.
34
 p ( x)d ( x)  1
0
(2.20)
and the expectation value (average value) of x:

x   xp( x)dx . (2.21)
0
The most probable state of p(x) is estimated by maximizing the entropy, subject to the
previous constraints, using the Lagrange multipliers method and the function (e.g.,
Tsallis, 2009; Pressé et al., 2013):
 
S B kB    p( x)dx    xp( x)dx , (2.22)
0 0
where α and β are the Lagrange multipliers. The probability distribution p(x) that
maximizes Eq.2.22 is the well-known Boltzmann distribution:
e  x
p( x)  
. (2.23)
e
 x
dx
0
The term e  x is often called the Boltzmann factor, with   1 kBT . The denominator
of Eq.2.23 is a normalization factor that is referred to as the partition function,

Z   e   x dx . (2.24)
0
Another frequent case that is deeply connected to statistical mechanics is that of the
squared variable x2. We might know that the average value of x is zero x  0 , but the
average value of the squared variable is not zero, x 2  0 . In this case, the distribution
p(x) that maximizes SBG under the appropriate constraints is the Gaussian distribution:
  x
p ( x) 
2
e , (2.25)

35
where β is the Lagrange multiplier. This distribution is also known as the Maxwell-
Boltzmann distribution in the kinetic theory of gases12 (e.g., Brush, 1975).
Expressions (2.17) and (2.23) are the milestones of statistical mechanics and have been
widely and successfully applied in physics, chemistry, mathematics and elsewhere. For
full reviews and historic remarks on the foundations of statistical mechanics the reader
is referred to Brush (1975; 1976) and Pathria and Beale (2011).
2.5.2 Information Theory
In 1948, Claude Shannon, in his study on gain and loss of information during
transmission through telecommunication lines, derived a mathematical function similar
to Eq.2.17 to measure the uncertainty or the missing information associated with a
probability distribution pi (Shannon, 1948). Shannon noticed the striking similarity
between the classic definition of entropy and the derived equation and he named it as
information entropy (H):
N
H  k  pi log pi , (2.26)
i 1
where k can be any positive constant, depending on the units of measure. H is positive
and additive across independent variables. It increases with increasing uncertainty and
diminishes with increasing information (e.g., Pressé et al., 2013). According to this
property, H is monotonically increasing as a function of the size N, so that a larger
number of possible states pi in the system is reminiscent of larger uncertainty. Shannon
estimated the most probable state or the most likely transmitted message by maximizing
H, subject to constraints, and deriving an exponential distribution of pi’s, similar to
Boltzmann’s distribution (Eq.2.23).
The issue of similarity between information entropy and statistical mechanics was
addressed by E.T. Jaynes (Jaynes, 1957). Jaynes’ approach was to look into Gibbs work
and how it is related to Boltzmann’s statistical mechanics, in the light of Shannon’s
12
In his H-theorem in 1872, Boltzmann stated that the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is the
only stationary distribution that describes molecular collisions.
36
work (Dewar, 2005). Jaynes went beyond the physical meaning of statistical mechanics
and treated it as a method of statistical inference under the perspective of insufficient
N
information. Jaynes argued that the quantity  pi log pi , given in Eq.2.17 and
i 1
Eq.2.26, can describe the missing information about any system and not just the
microstates of equilibrium systems (Dewar, 2005). Inferences can be drawn by
maximizing the entropy (Eq.2.17) subject to constraints, which illustrates the only
available information about the system. This procedure yields the same distribution as
that of Botzmann (Eq.2.23). Entropy can then be used as a general principle for
inferring the least biased probability distribution from limited information (Jaynes,
1957). The latter is commonly known as the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt).
A considerable advantage of Jaynes’ formalism is that it can be extended to a wide class

of out-of-equilibrium systems (Jaynes et al., 1979). During the last decades, innovative
insights into the macroscopic states of many physical, chemical and biological systems
have been accomplished by applying the MaxEnt hypothesis, since only the constraints
of the large-scale system need to be known, regardless of the complexity that may
characterize the different microscopic configurations (e.g., Martyushev and Seleznev,
2006; Pressé et al., 2013). A wide-open field of research nowadays concerns the
behavior of complex systems and whether this can be explained in terms of maximum
entropy production as the driving mechanism (Dewar, 2003; 2005; Whitfield, 2005).
2.5.3 Statistical Mechanics and Earthquakes
Given the complexity of the earthquake phenomenon and the large number of degrees
of freedom that are incorporated in the process, the application of statistical mechanics
and information theory to earthquake data arose naturally. One of the first studies that
applied statistical mechanics to earthquake data was that of Berrill and Davis (1980).
The authors maximized entropy to derive a probability density function of earthquake
magnitudes p(M) that has the form of a truncated exponential distribution:

p( M )  e  M , (2.27)
1  e  m1
37
where m1 is the minimum magnitude in the dataset and β the Lagrange multiplier.
Berrill and Davis (1980) also used MaxEnt to derive a Poissonian distribution for the
time of occurrence of earthquake events that are frequently modeled as a Poisson
process (§ 2.3.3).
The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes was further studied using

statistical mechanics by Shen and Manshina (1983) and Main and Burton (1984). By
maximizing SBGS using the constraints of the average magnitude m and the average
seismic energy release E , a gamma distribution of earthquake energies was derived,
consisting of a power-law distribution at small magnitudes that corresponds to the G-R

scaling relation and an exponential (Boltzmann) tail at larger magnitudes (Shen and
Manshina, 1983; Main and Burton, 1984). This distribution is similar to Eq.2.11 and
has the form:
p( E ) ~ E  B1e E / , (2.28)
where B is a scaling exponent and θ a characteristic energy that reflects the probability
of occupancy of the different energy states E (Main, 1995). Main and Burton (1984)
used earthquake data from the Mediterranean region and from Southern California to
show that this type of distribution is more consistent with real observations.
Furthermore, Main and Al-Kindy (2002) used Eq.2.28 to investigate the proximity of
the global earthquake dataset to the critical point (§ 2.4), characterized by the dissipated
seismic energy E and the entropy S. The authors defined a sub-critical state for positive
θ and a supercritical state for negative θ and concluded that global seismicity is in a
near-critical state, where large fluctuations are dominated by fluctuations in θ rather
than B and large seismic energy fluctuations can occur for smaller entropy fluctuations
(Main and Al-Kindy, 2002).
The hypothesis that the Earth’s lithosphere is in a state of thermodynamically driven

maximum entropy production and SOC (§ 2.4) was tested by Main and Naylor (2008;
2010). These authors explored this connection using the Olami-Feder-Christensen
(OFC) model (Olami et al., 1992) and real seismicity data and concluded that their
observations were consistent with the hypothesis of entropy production as the driving
38
mechanism for self-organized sub-criticality in natural and model seismicity (Main and
Naylor, 2008).
In other studies, Shannon entropy (H) was used as a measure of disorder in earthquake
sequences (Telesca et al., 2004; De Santis et al., 2011). Telesca et al. (2004) estimated
H with time for the earthquake magnitudes and inter-event time series in Umbria-
Marche region (central Italy) and found significant variations that correspond to the
largest event in the series. De Santis et al. (2011) related H to the G-R scaling relation
(Eq.2.7) and derived a relation between H and the b-value that reads as:
bmax 1.2
b  , (2.29)
10H 10H
with bmax  e log e  1.2 . Using Eq.2.29, De Santis et al. (2011) studied the variability
of the b-value and H during two earthquake sequences in Italy and identified three
dynamic regimes with respect to H variations: (i) a preparatory phase, where H
increases slowly with time, (ii) the phase of occurrence of a strong earthquake, where
H exhibits an abrupt increase after the occurrence of the main shock and (iii) a final
diffuse phase, where H recovers “normal” values and seismicity spreads all over the
region.
2.6 Generalized Statistical Mechanics
2.6.1 The non-additive entropy Sq
Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical mechanics has proven quite successful over the
twentieth century for describing the macroscopic behavior of a wide class of physical
systems with a large number of degrees of freedom from the specification of the
underlying microscopic dynamics. However, there is an important class of complex
out-of-equilibrium systems in nature that violate some of the essential properties of BG
statistical mechanics (e.g., Bouchaud and George, 1990; Gell-Mann, 1994; Bak, 1996;
Sornette, 2006; Tsallis, 2009a). One such property of SBG is extensivity, namely its
directly proportional relationship with the number of elements, N, in the system
(Eq.2.18). If strong interactions among the different microstates of a system exist, the
39
probabilities pi of the available microstates i are interrelated and the occurrence of one
microstate strongly depends on the occurrence of another. Some microstates are
favored, while some others are neglected. For instance, water molecules in the presence
of a whirlpool do not take any path but only those paths that resemble a vortex, due to
correlations in the molecules’ motions (Cartwright, 2014). In this case, the number of
possible microstates, W, no longer increases exponentially with N, so SBG is no longer
proportional to N (see Eq.2.18) and extensivity is violated. Another essential property
of BG statistical mechanics is ergodicity. An ergodic system dynamically explores the
accessible phase space with equal probability over the course of time and phase space
averages correspond to time averages. However, in other systems ergodicity is broken
and the time averages do not coincide with phase space averages13 (Lutz and Renzoni,
2013).
Complex systems that violate BG statistical mechanics involve properties such as long-
range interactions, long-range microscopic memory or (multi) fractal structures and are
characterized by broad probability distributions with asymptotic power-law behavior
(Tsallis, 1999; Sornette, 2006). Some characteristic examples can be drawn from long-
range interacting systems such as 3-D gravitation, ferromagnetism or spin-glasses and
anomalous diffusion phenomena among others (see Tsallis, 2001 and Tsallis, 2009a for
a comprehensive list of such systems and corresponding references). In these systems,
BG statistical mechanics has limited applicability and another type of statistical
mechanics seems more appropriate to describe their macroscopic properties (e.g.,
Zaslavsky, 1999; Gell-Mann and Tsallis, 2004; Sornette, 2006).
In 1988, Constantino Tsallis, inspired by the probabilistic description of multifractal

geometries, proposed a generalization of SBG to overcome some of the limitations that
BG statistical mechanics presents (Tsallis, 1988). Tsallis named his generalized
entropic function as non-additive entropy Sq (also known as Tsallis entropy) that for the
discrete case reads as:
W
1   piq
Sq  k i 1
, (2.30)
q 1
13
Non-ergodicity can in fact be the generic case for many complex systems (Gell-Mann, 1994).
40
where k is a positive constant, such as Boltzmann’s constant kB or the constant k=1

frequently used in information theory, pi is the set of probabilities, W is the total number
of microscopic configurations and q  q   is the entropic index that expresses the
degree of non-extensivity of the system (Tsallis, 1999). Note that the probabilities piq
are similar to the moment order q of pi(r) in the definition of multifractality (§ 2.2,
Eq.2.3). However, in multifractals q is a running index that is used to describe the
different scalings, whereas in the definition of Sq q is a fixed index that characterizes
the system. Since the probabilities pi take values between zero and unity, for q < 1,
piq  pi and for q > 1, piq  pi . Therefore, q < 1 enhances the probabilities of rare
events, which are close to zero (Tsallis, 2001).
For equal probabilities  pi  1 W , i  , Sq obtains its maximum value:
Sq  k ln q W , (2.31)
where the q-logarithmic function lnqW is defined as:
x1q  1
ln q x   x  0;ln1 x  ln x  . (2.32)
1 q
In the limit of q  1 , Sq precisely recovers SBG and Eq.2.30 and Eq.2.31 recover
Eq.2.17 and Eq.2.18 respectively (Tsallis, 1988). The entropic function Sq is the
hallmark of the generalized statistical mechanics framework introduced by Tsallis,
commonly known as non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM).
Sq (q>0) shares a variety of properties with SBG, such as non-negativity, concavity

(related to thermodynamic stability), continuity (related to experimental robustness)
and finiteness of entropy production per unit time (related to the exploration of the
available phase space) (Gell-Mann and Tsallis, 2004). However, SBG is additive,
whereas Sq  q  1 is non-additive 14 . According to this property, for any two
probabilistically independent systems A and B, i.e. if the joint probability satisfies

pij  A  B   pi ( A) p j ( B),    i, j   , SBG satisfies:
14 Tsallis named Sq as non-additive entropy after this property.
41
SBG  A  B   SBG ( A)  SBG ( B) , (2.33)
whereas Sq satisfies:
Sq  A  B  Sq ( A) Sq ( B) Sq ( A) Sq ( B)
   1  q  . (2.34)
k k k k k
The origin of non-additivity of Sq comes from the last term on the right hand side of
this equation (Tsallis, 1999). For q > 1, Sq  A  B   Sq ( A)  Sq ( B) and for q < 1,
Sq  A  B   Sq ( A)  Sq ( B) . These cases are referred to as sub-additivity and super-
additivity respectively. However, if the systems A and B are correlated, then a q-value
might exist such that Sq  A  B   Sq ( A)  Sq ( B) . In this case, Sq is extensive for q  1
(Tsallis, 2009a). According to Tsallis, entropy must always remain extensive to be

consistent with the laws of thermodynamics and the entropic function to be used in each
case should vary accordingly (Tsallis, 2009b; Cartwright, 2014).
2.6.2 Optimizing Sq
The present thesis concerns the applicability of NESM to fracturing phenomena and
earthquakes. Similar to BG statistical mechanics and information theory, the
optimization of the non-additive entropy Sq under the appropriate constraints is applied,
in order to derive probability distribution functions that can describe the macroscopic
properties of fault and earthquake populations. Let’s consider a continuous variable X
with probability distribution p(X) (0 ≤ p(X) ≤ 1). The X variable may represent the
seismic moment (Mo), the inter-event times (τ) or distances (r) between successive
earthquakes or the fault trace-lengths (L) in a given region. I focus on the continuous
case since these variables can take any real value from a finite range of values. In this
case, the non-additive entropy Sq is expressed through the integral formulation:

1   p q ( X )dX
Sq  k 0
. (2.35)
q 1
42
In the following, k is set equal to unity for the sake of simplicity and without losing
generality. In order to obtain the distribution p(X) that optimizes Sq, subject to
constraints, the Lagrange multipliers method is applied. The first constraint refers to
the normalization condition of p(X):
 p( X )dX  1 .
0
(2.36)
The second constraint refers to the following average value, which is referred to as the
q-expectation value (or q-mean value) Xq (Tsallis et al., 1998):

Xq  X q
  XPq ( X )dX , (2.37)
0
where Pq(X) is the escort probability distribution that is defined as:

pq ( X )
Pq ( X )  
, with  Pq ( X )dX  1 . (2.38)
p
q 0
( X )dX
0
In the limit q→1, Xq recovers the standard average value of X, X . The reason for
which the escort probability Pq(X) is used in the second constraint (Eq.2.37) instead of
the physical probability p(X) is further discussed below. At this stage, Sq is optimized
with the constraints given in Eq.2.36 and Eq.2.37. Using the Lagrange multipliers
method, the following functional is optimized:
 

  Sq  a  p( X )dX   * X q   0 , (2.39)
 0 
where α and β* represent the Lagrange multipliers.
Optimization of Eq.2.39 yields the optimal physical probability:
1
1  1  q   q X  1q exp q    q X 
p( X )   . (2.40)
Zq Zq
43
The probability distribution p(X) can be normalized only for q < 2. The denominator of
Eq.2.40 is the q-partition function defined as:

Z q   expq    q X  dX . (2.41)
0
The term βq is associated with the Lagrange multiplier β* and the second constraint
(Eq.2.37) as:

*
q  , with Cq   p q ( X )dX . (2.42)
Cq  1  q   * X q 0
The numerator of Eq. (2.40) is the q-exponential function defined as:
1
exp q ( X )  1  1  q  X  1q , for 1  (1  q)  0
. (2.43)
exp q ( X )  0, for 1  (1  q)  0
The inverse of the q-exponential function is the q-logarithmic function given in

Eq.2.32. In the limit q→1, the q-exponential and q-logarithmic functions lead to the
ordinary exponential and logarithmic functions respectively. If q > 1, the q-exponential
function exhibits asymptotic power-law behavior with slope 1  q  1 , whereas for 0
< q < 1 a cut-off appears (Abe and Suzuki, 2003; 2005). The q-exponential function for
various values of q is shown in Fig.2.10.
In various applications, the cumulative distribution function P(X) is preferred to the

probability distribution p(X). In the NESM framework it has been proposed that P(X)
should be obtained upon integration of the escort probability Pq(X) rather than p(X)
(Abe and Suzuki, 2003; 2005). Following this approach and by using Eq.2.38, P(X) is
derived as:

 X 
P( X )   Pq ( X )dX  exp q   . (2.44)
0  X0 
44
q=1.5
q=1
q=0.5
a)
q=1.5
q=1
q=0.5
b)
Figure 2.10: The q-exponential function expq(X) (Eq.2.41) for various values of q in a)
log-linear axes and b) log-log axes.
We see that P(X) is also given by a q-exponential function. X0 is always positive, has
1
the units of X and is defined as X 0  1  q  X q  (Abe and Rajagopal, 2000).
q
45
 P( X ) 
1 q
1 X
Eq.2.44 can alternatively be written as  . The latter equation
1 q X0
implies that after the estimation of the appropriate q-value that describes the distribution
of X, the q-logarithmic function (Eq.2.32) is linear with X, with slope 1 X 0
(Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2011). The latter is expressed in mathematical form as
 P( X ) 
1 q
1  1 
ln q (X )    X .
1 q  X 0 
An interesting issue of debate in the NESM theory is which distribution shall be

compared with observations. The common approach is to introduce the escort
probability in the second constraint (Eq.2.37) and optimize Sq as described earlier. The
other forms that have been used in the theory are thoroughly described in Tsallis
(2009a) and are discussed in detail in Wada and Scarfone (2005) and Ferri et al. (2005).
According to Tsallis (2009a), the escort probability is preferred because it solves a
number of difficulties that are related to the connection between the theory and
thermodynamics (see Tsallis, 2009a for a full description). However, in practice the
different forms are all correct and can be transformed one into the other with simple
operations redefining the values of q and X0. For instance, the cumulative distribution
P(X), as obtained upon integration of the escort probability Pq(X), was given in Eq.2.44.
If P(X) is estimated by the integration of the physical probability p(X) given in Eq.2.40,
instead of the escort probability Pq(X), then:

 X 
P( X )   p( X )dX  exp q '   '  , (2.45)
0  X0 
with q '  1  2  q  and X 0'  X 0  2  q  (Picoli et al., 2009). By applying these
transformations, Eq.2.45 becomes:
2 q
 X  1 q
P( X )  1  1  q   . (2.46)
 X0 
In addition, Sq can be optimized in terms of the squared variable X2. In this case, the
optimization process leads to the q-Gaussian distribution that has the form:
46
1   X  
2 1 q
p( X )  1  1  q     . (2.47)
Zq   X0  
In the limit q→1, Eq. (2.47) recovers the Gaussian distribution (Eq.2.25). For q > 1, the
q-Gaussian distribution displays power-law tails with slope 2  q  1 . The q-Gaussian
distribution is shown in Fig.2.11 for various values of q.
The introduction of NESM more than 25 years ago has proved to be quite important, as
it can provide a physical generative principle for producing a range of power-law to
exponential type distributions that characterize the behavior of a wide class of natural
systems. As in BG statistical mechanics, by knowing only the mean and variance of a
variable, we can draw inferences about the macroscopic behavior of a system by
optimizing the non-additive entropy Sq. The solutions in this case are q-exponential or
q-Gaussian distributions, which may act as attractors for a large class of out-of-
equilibrium systems in nature (Tsallis, 2013). Then a natural question arises: can Sq be
determined by the microscopic dynamics of the system? Or in other words: is the q-
index related to the first principles of a system? In an ongoing debate, detractors of the
theory claim that the q-index is just a fitting parameter for systems that are not well
understood (see the related discussion in Cartwright, 2014). However, Caruso and
Tsallis (2008) calculated the q-index directly from first principles for a chain of particle
spins in a transverse magnetic field, where values of q ≠ 1 emerge as strong correlations
between the spins are formed. Another example in the microscopic scale is the
anomalous transport of cold atoms in dissipative optical lattices that cannot be
described within BG statistical mechanics (Lutz and Renzoni, 2013). Lutz (2003)
demonstrated theoretically that in the anomalous regime the momentum distribution of
cold atoms is q-Gaussian, with q-values being solely related to the depth of the optical
potential. This was experimentally verified later on (Douglas et al., 2006).
47
a)
b)
Figure 2.11: The q-Gaussian distribution for various q-values, in a) linear axes and b)
log-linear axes. In the limit of q→1, the q-Gaussian recovers the Gaussian distribution.
Applications of the theory have expanded across physics, chemistry, biology, medicine,
economics and more, providing new insights into the complex behavior that is
frequently observed (see Tsallis, 2009a for an extensive list of applications). In
48
earthquake phenomena, the application of NESM arose naturally (see the following
section), as the theory addresses properties such as fractal geometries, long-range
interactions and criticality, properties that seem quite important for understanding
earthquake physics (Sornette, 2006). Since the microscopic dynamics that are
incorporated in the deformation of the Earth’s crust are widely unknown, the q-index
is determined by the observations. This is the standard procedure of fitting the
mathematical forms that emerge in the theory (i.e., q-exponentials or q-Gaussians) to
the observational data to obtain the appropriate q-values that best describe the
observations.
2.6.3 Applications to Seismicity
NESM theory and the corresponding functional forms have been successfully applied
to a variety of earthquake-related variables, such as the seismic energies or magnitudes,
the inter-event times or distances between successive earthquakes or the distribution of
fault-trace lengths in a tectonic region. These variables are characterized by fractal or
multifractal geometries, clustering effects and power-law distributions among other
properties (§ 2.3), making NESM an appropriate framework for studying their
macroscopic properties. The results of various studies that apply NESM to earthquakes
are briefly summarized in the following paragraphs.
2.6.3.1 Spatiotemporal description
The first applications of NESM to earthquake data were those of Abe and Suzuki (2003;
2005), who studied the spatiotemporal properties of seismicity in California and Japan
and showed that the cumulative distributions of inter-event distances P(>r) and times
P(>τ) between successive earthquakes are well described by the q-exponential
distribution (Eq.2.44) for q-values of qr < 1 and qτ > 1, respectively. In particular, Abe
and Suzuki (2003; 2005) found q-values of qr = 0.773, qτ = 1.13 for California and qr =
0.747, qτ = 1.05 for Japan and suggested the spatiotemporal duality of earthquakes,
where q  qr  2 .
49
Table 2.1: Spatiotemporal scaling properties of seismicity according to the q-

exponential distribution for various earthquake catalogues and tectonic environments.
Region Time period M0* qτ X0τ qr X0r Reference
California 1984-2001 0 1.13 1724 sec 0.773 179 km Abe and Suzuki, 2003;
2005
Japan 1993-1998 2 1.05 1587 sec 0.747 595 km Abe and Suzuki, 2003;
2005
Global 1981-2011 5.5 1.5 0.29 104 km Vallianatos and

Sammonds, 2013
Iran 1996-2005 0.1 1.328 0.836 Darooneh and Dadashinia,

2008
HSZ** 1976-2009 4.1 1.04 0.30 Papadakis et al., 2013

±0.02 ±0.02
Greece 1976-2009 4.1 1.24 Antonopoulos et al., 2014

±0.054
Santorini 2012 unrest 1.2 1.52 Vallianatos et al., 2013
AAS*** 1995 3 1.58 0.025 0.53 Vallianatos et al., 2012b

±0.02 days
* Minimum magnitude of the catalogue; **Hellenic Subduction Zone; *** Aigion aftershock
sequence
The results of Abe and Suzuki were further verified through laboratory experiments
(Vallianatos et al., 2012a), numerical models (Hasumi, 2007; 2009) and regional
seismicity (see the full list of references in Table 2.1). Hasumi (2007; 2009) used the
2-D slider-block model (§ 2.4; Fig.2.9) to study the cumulative distributions of inter-
event times and distances between successive slip events and, by varying the model
parameters, they found results consistent with q-exponential scaling. Vallianatos et al.
(2012a) investigated the scaling properties of acoustic emissions (AE), produced during
triaxial deformation of basalts in the laboratory and found that the q-value triplet
 qM , q , qr   1.82,1.34,0.65 characterizes the cumulative distribution functions of
scalar moments (M), inter-event times (τ) and distances (r) of AE, which also take the
form of q-exponentials. Further studies on regional and global earthquake catalogues
50
showed that the cumulative distributions of inter-event times and distances are also
consistent with q-exponential statistics. The results of these studies, including the
regions and the time period of the catalogues, as well as the corresponding NESM
parameter estimates, are summarized in Table (2.1).
Figure 2.12: The cumulative distribution of inter-event times P(>τ) for the Aigion
aftershock sequence in double logarithmic axes. The solid line represents the q-
exponential distribution for the values of qτ = 1.58 ±0.02 and τ0 = 0.025 ±0.0003 days.
Inset: the q-logarithmic distribution lnq(P(>τ)), exhibiting a correlation coefficient of ρ
= -0.9885. The straight line corresponds to the q-exponential distribution (Vallianatos
et al., 2012b).
The application of NESM to aftershock sequences was tested by Vallianatos et al.

(2012b)15, in a case that is related to the Corinth Rift seismicity and the last major
15 Vallianatos, F., Michas, G., Papadakis, G., Sammonds, P. (2012b). A non-extensive

statistical physics view to the spatiotemporal properties of the June 1995, Aigion earthquake
(m6.2) aftershock sequence (West Corinth Rift, Greece). Acta Geophysica, 60, 758–768.
51
earthquake that occurred in the area; the 1995 Aigion earthquake (Ms = 6.2, Bernard et
al., 1997). In particular, we studied the spatiotemporal scaling properties of the Aigion
aftershock sequence and we found results consistent with the q-exponential distribution
(Table 2.1). The cumulative distribution of inter-event times and the corresponding q-
exponential fit (Eq.2.44) is shown in Fig.2.12. The temporal scaling properties of
volcanic seismicity and in particular during the 2011 – 2012 unrest at the Santorini
volcanic complex were studied by Vallianatos et al. (2013)16. In the latter study we
found that when the volcano-related seismicity takes swarm-like character, complex
correlations of seismicity emerge that are characterized by a q-exponential inter-event
times distribution. The effect of aftershock sequences on the temporal scaling properties
of seismicity in Greece (time period 1976-2009) was investigated by Antonopoulos et
al. (2014)17. In this work, we used q-statistics to study the scaling properties of inter-
event times for the entire dataset and the declustered one, where the aftershock
sequences have been removed. Our analysis indicated that both distributions deviate
from an ordinary exponential and are better described by q-exponential distributions,
with decreasing q-values that approach unity for the declustered dataset. This result
implies the loss of temporal correlations and close proximity to Poissonian (random)
behavior, once the aftershock sequences are removed from the dataset (Antonopoulos
et al., 2014).
2.6.3.2 Earthquake magnitudes
NESM theory was first applied to the frequency-size distribution of earthquakes by

Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas (2004), who developed a physical model for earthquake
dynamics based on the small-scale processes that take place in fault zones. Consistent
with the idea of stick-slip frictional instability in fault zones (e.g., Scholz, 1998),
Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas considered that the triggering mechanism of an
earthquake involves the interaction between the irregular surfaces of the fault planes
16Vallianatos, F., Michas, G., Papadakis, G., Tzanis, A. (2013). Evidence of non-extensivity in
the seismicity observed during the 2011–2012 unrest at the Santorini volcanic complex, Greece.
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 177–185.
17Antonopoulos, G., Michas, G., Vallianatos, F., Bountis, T. (2014). Evidence of q-exponential
statistics in Greek seismicity. Physica A, 409, 71–77.
52
and the fragments of various sizes and shapes that fill the space between them
(Fig.2.13). When the accumulated stress exceeds a critical value in a fault zone, the
fault planes slip, displacing the fragments and breaking asperities that hinder their
motion, releasing energy. Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas considered that the released
seismic energy is related to the size of the fragments and based on the fragment-size
distribution they used the NESM formalism to establish an energy distribution function
(EDF) for earthquakes. The derived formula was then applied to the frequency-size
distribution of earthquakes in Southern California and Iberian Peninsula with results
consistent with observations. The incorporation of NESM in fragmentation phenomena
is further supported by the scale-invariant properties of fragments (Krajinovic and Van
Mier, 2000), the presence of long-range interactions among the fragmented materials
(Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas, 2004) and the deficiency of BG statistical mechanics to
account for the presence of scaling in the fragmentation process (Englman et al., 1987).
Figure 2.13: Fig. 1 from Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas (2004). Illustration of the
relative motion of two irregular fault planes (a, b) and the fragments of size r that fill
the space between them.
In the following, the mathematical formulations and the derivation of the fragment-
asperity interaction model of Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas, which was later revised by
Silva et al. (2006) and Telesca (2011; 2012), are described.
53
The non-additive entropy Sq, in terms of the probability p(σ) of finding a fragment of
area σ, is expressed as (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas, 2004):
1   p q   d 
Sq  k . (2.48)
q 1
In what follows, k is set equal to unity for the sake of simplicity. Sotolongo-Costa and
Posadas (2004) obtained the probability p(σ) by maximizing Sq under the constraints of
normalization of p(σ) (Eq.2.36) and the q-mean value of pq(σ). Silva et al. (2006)
introduced the condition about the q-expectation value in the second constraint (σq
instead of Xq in Eq.2.37) and by using the Lagrange multipliers method, they
maximized the function given in Eq.2.39 and derived the following expression for the
fragment size distribution function p(σ):
1 1 q 
 1  q  
p    1     q  . (2.49)
 2  q 
The proportionality between the released earthquake energy E and the size of the
fragments r is introduced as E ~ r3 (Silva et al., 2006), in accordance with the standard
definition of seismic moment scaling with rupture length (Lay and Wallace, 1995). The
proportionality between the released relative energy E and the 3-D size of the fragments
r3 now becomes:
23
 E 
 q    . (2.50)
 E 
In the last equation, σ scales with r2 and αE is the proportionality constant between E
and r3 that has the dimension of volumetric energy density. By using the latter equation,
the energy distribution function (EDF) can be written on the basis of the relationship
between density functions of correlated stochastic variables (Telesca, 2011):
1  E   d  1  q   E 2 3  1 q
23
p( E )  p q   1    ,
dE   E   (2.51)
 dE   2  q    E  
   
d
where the term dσ/dE can be obtained by differentiating Eq. (2.50):
54
1

d 2 E 3
 2
dE . (2.52)
dE 3
E 3
The EDF now becomes (Silva et al., 2006; Telesca, 2011):
1

3
C1 E
p( E )  1  q 1
, (2.53)
 2

1  C2 E 
3
 
with C1 
2
and C2  
1  q  .
2 2
3 E 3
 2  q  E 3
In the latter expression, the probability of the energy is p(E) = n(E)/N, where n(E)
corresponds to the number of earthquakes with energy E and N is the total number of
earthquakes. A more viable expression can now be obtained by introducing the
normalized cumulative number of earthquakes given by the integral of Eq.2.53:
N  E  Eth  
  p  E dE , (2.54)
N Eth
where N(E > Eth) is the number of earthquakes with energy E greater than the threshold
energy Eth and N the total number of earthquakes. Substituting Eq.2.53 in Eq.2.54 the
following expression is derived:
2  qE
  E
2 1 q
N  E  Eth    1  qE  E  3 
 1 
  2  qE    . (2.55)
N 
 E  
 
The latter expression can be written in terms of the earthquake magnitude M, if we

consider the relation between E and M. Silva et al. (2006) considered that M and E are
1 2
related as M  ln E , whereas Telesca (2011) considered the relation M ~ log E
3 3
(Eq.2.9; Kanamori, 1978) and from Eq.2.55 he derived the equation:
55
2  qE
N   M    1  qE  10M   1qE
 1    2 3   . (2.56)
N   2  qE   E  
Later on, Telesca (2012) proposed that the threshold magnitude M0, i.e. the minimum
magnitude M0 of the earthquake catalogue, has to be taken in account, as the cumulative
distribution assumes values of 1 for M = M0. Eq.2.56 should then be slightly changed
to (Telesca, 2012):
2  qE
  1  qE  10M   1 qE
1    2 3  
N   M    2  qE   E  
 . (2.57)
N   1  qE  10M 0  
1    2 3  
  2  qE   E  
The fragment-asperity interaction model, in the form of Eq.2.56 or Eq.2.57, or in the

previous forms of Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas (2004) and Silva et al. (2006), has been
applied to various regional earthquake catalogues and diverse tectonic environments.
The results of these studies indicate that the model can successfully reproduce the
frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes and can then be used in regional
earthquake hazard assessments. An example is shown in Fig.2.14, where the model
(Eq.2.57) is applied to the regional seismicity of Greece for the period 1976-2009 and
provides a good fit for the entire dataset and the de-clustered one (Antonopoulos et al.,
2014). The various qE and αE values found in regional earthquake catalogues and the
corresponding references are summarized in Table 2.2. In comparison to the G-R
scaling relation (Eq.2.7), the fragment-asperity model provides a good description of
the observed earthquake magnitudes over a wider range of scales, while for values
above some threshold magnitude, the G-R relation can be derived as a particular case,
for the value of b = (2-qE) / (qE-1) (Telesca, 2012).
In another recent study, Vallianatos and Sammonds (2013) used NESM to study the
effect of the Sumatra (2004) and Honshu (2011) mega-earthquakes (Mw ≥ 9) on the
global frequency-magnitude distribution. The authors used a cross-over formulation of
NESM18 to interpret thermodynamically the deviation of greater magnitudes from a
18
A cross-over NESM formulation considers two or more different scaling regions with
different q-values within the same probability distribution (Tsekouras and Tsallis, 2005).
56
pure power-law (also dicussed in § 2.3.2) and found that the distribution of greater
earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.6) changes from an exponential to another power-law prior to the
two mega-events, implying a global organization of seismicity as the two mega-events
were approached (Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2013). Increases in the q-values of the
fragment-asperity model prior to strong events have been observed by Telesca (2010c)
and Papadakis et al. (2015). Telesca (2010c) found an increase from qE=1.48 to qE=1.74
some days before the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (ML=5.8), indicating an increase in the
out-of-equilibrium state of the seismogenic zone surrounding the epicentral area prior
to the strong event. A similar increase in the q-values, some months prior to the 1995
Kobe earthquake (M=7.2) was found by Papadakis et al. (2015). In both L’Aquila and
Kobe case studies, the q-value increases were associated with the occurrence of
moderate-size events prior to the main shock, indicating the initiation of a preparatory
phase leading to a strong earthquake. These observations are in accordance with
accelerating moment release, where the rate of moderate size events increases prior to
the main shock (§ 2.4).
Figure 2.14: Fig. 1 from Antonopoulos et al. (2014). a) Normalized cumulative

distribution of earthquake magnitudes in Greece (1976-2009, 3523 events) and the
corresponding fit according to Eq.2.57 (dashed line), for the values of qE = 1.443 ±0.018
and aE = 3.18 · 105 ±1.7 · 105. b) Normalized cumulative magnitude distribution for the
de-clustered dataset (2153 events) and the corresponding fit according to Eq.2.57
(dashed line), for the values of qE = 1.46 ±0.018 and aE = 3.25 · 105 ±1.7 · 105.
57
Table 2.2: Analyses of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes according

to the q-exponential distribution and the fragment-asperity model, for various
earthquake catalogues and tectonic environments.
Region Time M0 qE αΕ Model Reference

period
Global 1981-2011 5.5 1.6 q-exponential Vallianatos and
Sammonds, 2013
Greece 1976-2009 4.1 1.443 3.18•105 Telesca (2012) Antonopoulos et al.,

±0.018 ±1.7•105 2014
Italy 2005-2009 1.9 1.67 2•106 Silva et al. (2006) Telesca, 2010b
Vesuvius 1972-2007 1.9 1.48 8•105 Silva et al. (2006) Telesca, 2010b
Etna 1832-2005 2.2 1.57 3•107 Silva et al. (2006) Telesca, 2010b
Santorini 2012 1.2 1.39 286.6 ±78 Telesca (2011) Vallianatos et al.,
unrest ±0.035 2013
HSZ* 1976-2009 4.1 1.44 5.4•105 Telesca (2012) Papadakis et al.,

2013
Taiwan 1990-2007 2 1.679 1.4•107 Silva et al. (2006) Telesca and Chen,
2010
Southern 2010 2 1.506 438.65 Telesca (2011) Telesca, 2011

California
California 3 1.65 5.73•10-6 SCP (2004)** Sotolongo-Costa

and Posadas, 2004
California 1932-2008 0.1 1.808 3.37•104 Silva et al. (2006) Darooneh and
Mehri, 2010
Iran 1996-2005 0.1 1.788 4.87•104 Silva et al. (2006) Darooneh and
Mehri, 2010
Iberian 3 1.64 3.37•10-6 SCP (2004) Sotolongo-Costa

Peninsula and Posadas, 2004
New Madrid 3 1.63 1.2•1010 Silva et al. (2006) Silva et al., 2006
Anatolian 3 1.71 2.8•1010 Silva et al. (2006) Silva et al., 2006

Fault
58
Samambaia, 3 1.6 1.3•1010 Silva et al. (2006) Silva et al., 2006

Brazil
San Andreas 2004-2006 2 1.68 4.4•1010 Silva et al. (2006) Vilar et al., 2007
Javakheti 1966-2008 1.6 1.81 1.1•106 Silva et al. (2006) Matcharashvili et

al., 2011
Mexico 1988-2010 2.2 1.6-1.7 2-5.8•1010 Silva et al. (2006) Valverde-Esperanza

et al., 2012
* Hellenic Subduction Zone; ** Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas (2004)
The probability distribution of incremental earthquake energies (i.e., the energy

differences between successive earthquakes) in real earthquake data and in the
dissipative OFC model (Olami et al., 1992) was studied by Caruso et al. (2007) and
was found to follow the q-Gaussian distribution (Eq.2.47). In particular, Caruso et al.
(2007) showed that in the critical regime (small-world lattice), the incremental
earthquake energies in the OFC model exhibit a q-Gaussian probability distribution,
while in the non-critical regime (regular lattice) the probability distribution is close to
Gaussian (Fig.2.15a). Caruso et al. (2007) repeated their analysis on real earthquake
data and found that the probability distribution of incremental earthquake energies in
global seismicity and Northern California also follows the q-Gaussian distribution
(Fig.2.15a), providing further evidence for SOC, intermittency and long-range
interactions in seismicity. These results also imply that although long-range temporal
and spatial correlations exist in seismicity, together with a certain degree of statistical
predictability, it is not possible to predict the magnitude of the events (Caruso et al.,
2007). The probability distribution of incremental earthquake energies in volcano
seismicity was further investigated by Vallianatos et al. (2013). In this study we found
that the probability distribution of incremental earthquake energies during the 2011-
2012 unrest at the Santorini volcanic complex follows the q-Gaussian distribution for
the q-value of q = 2.24, a value that is in agreement with the Ehrenfest dog-flea SOC
model (Bakar and Tirnakli, 2009).
59
a)
b)
Figure 2.15: a) Probability distribution function (PDF) of incremental “avalanche”

sizes x, normalized to the standard deviation σ, for the OFC model on a small world
topology (critical state; open circles) and on a regular lattice (non-critical state; filled
circles). The first curve is fitted with the q-Gaussian distribution (solid line) for q = 2
±0.1. The Gaussian distribution (dashed line) is also shown for comparison. b) PDF of
incremental earthquake energies for the Northern California earthquake catalogue
(open circles) and the corresponding fit with the q-Gaussian distribution (solid line) for
q = 1.75 ±0.15. The Gaussian distribution (dashed line) is also shown for comparison
(from Caruso et al., 2007).
60
2.6.3.3 Fault populations
The applicability of NESM to the scaling properties of fault sizes was examined by
Vallianatos et al. (2011a) and Vallianatos and Sammonds (2011). These studies showed
that the cumulative distribution of fault lengths can well be approximated with the q-
exponential distribution (Vallianatos et al., 2011a; Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2011).
In particular, Vallianatos et al. (2011a) used the NESM formalism to derive a q-
exponential distribution for fault lengths and showed that the fault length distribution
Figure 2.16: Fig. 2 from Vallianatos (2013). Normalized cumulative distribution

function P(>L) of fault lengths in Mars and the corresponding fit according to the q-
exponential distribution (solid line), for a) compressional faults with q=1.114 and b)
extensional faults with q=1.277.
61
in Crete, in the front of the Hellenic Arc, is q-exponential with q=1.16. Vallianatos and
Sammonds (2011) used a similar approach to study the scaling properties of linked and
independent faults in an extraterrestrial fault system; the Valles Marineris extensional
province, Mars, and showed that the fault length distributions follow a q-exponential,
with q=1.75 for linked faults and q=1.10 for the independent ones. These results
indicate the strong mechanical correlations of linked faults and the weaker ones for the
independent faults, with a q-value that approaches unity and BG statistical mechanics.
Furthermore, Vallianatos (2013a) studied the scaling properties of thrust
(compressional) and normal (extensional) faults in Mars and found that the former are
described by the q-exponential distribution for the value of q=1.114 and the latter for
q=1.277 (Fig.2.16).
2.7 Summary
In the present chapter, the phenomenology that characterize the collective properties of
fault and earthquake populations, such as clustering effects and power-laws have been
reviewed and some of the methods and theories, which have been developed to quantify
or explain these properties, such as fractal geometries, critical phase transitions and
self-organized criticality, have been discussed. Stochastic models of seismicity and
simplified mechanical models like the slider-block model have been used to reproduce
earthquake statistics, based on the empirical observations and the associated scaling
relations that have been developed. However, earthquake physics in the microscopic
scale is inaccessible and is often missing from these approaches. Since our knowledge
of the physical processes and the complex dynamics that take place in fault zones at
depth is really limited, statistical mechanics can be used to derive the macroscopic
properties of seismicity from the specification of the microscopic elements. During the
chapter, the foundations of statistical mechanics, the concept of entropy and the
advance of information theory as a variational principle for making predictions, for
systems beyond classic thermodynamics, were briefly introduced. Although powerful,
BG statistical mechanics presents limitations and generalized statistical mechanics has
been developed, namely non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM), to account for a
class of out-of-equilibrium systems that exhibit (multi) fractal geometries, long-range
interactions, high fluctuations and anomalous diffusion phenomena, among other
62
properties. These properties can lead to power-law distributions with “fat” tails and
enhanced probabilities of extreme events; an issue that presents important implications
for earthquake physics, earthquake hazard and the occurrence of large earthquakes. It
is the scope of the present thesis to apply the concept of NESM to fault and earthquake
population in a highly active seismic zone and one of the fastest extending continental
rifts in the world, the Corinth Rift. In the following chapters, the NESM concept,
supplemented with other methods such as multifractal analysis and the empirical
scaling relations of seismicity, is applied to fault and earthquake populations in the
Corinth Rift, aiming to provide new insights into the physics of the earthquake
generation process and the evolution of earthquake activity and the fault network in the
Rift, contributing to earthquake hazard assessments.
63
Chapter 3
Statistical Mechanics of the Fault Network
3.1 Introduction
The scaling properties of fault systems are studied in order to gain insights into the
physical mechanism of fault growth and evolution (Cowie, 1998a). Based on the scaling
properties of faults, a variety of fault array evolution models have been developed and
employed in various fields of geology, geophysics and enginnering (Davy et al., 1995,
Berkowitz et al., 2000; Bell and Jackson, 2015). In § 2.3.1, it has been discussed that
in many case studies the distribution of fault lengths has been approximated by fractal
geometries and power-law distributions (Eq.2.5) (e.g., Main et al., 1990; Turcotte,
1997; Bonnett et al., 2001). Fractal geometries are typically characterized by the
absence of any characteristic length scale in the system (§ 2.2) that implies a scale-
invariant fault growth process. However, in other studies, fault-length distributions are
better described by the exponential function (Eq.2.6) (Cowie et al., 1993b; Vetel et al.,
2005). The transition from power-law to exponential scaling has been observed in
regional tectonic settings (Gupta and Scholz, 2000a), in numerical models
(Spyropoulos et al., 2002; Hardacre and Cowie, 2003) and analogue laboratory
experiments (Spyropoulos et al., 1999; Ackermann et al., 2001) and has been associated
with the total amount of strain that the fault system has been subjected to. This transition
is associated with the rates of fault nucleation, growth and coalescence, which define
Chapter 3 Statistical Mechanics of the Fault Network
the main stages of fault population evolution (Fig.3.1). The models indicate that at the
very early stages of deformation, where few new faults have nucleated, their spatial
organization is random and the trace-length distribution exhibits exponential scaling
(Ackermann et al., 2001; Spyropoulos et al., 2002). As strain accumulates, more faults
are nucleated and grow in size and number and start to coalesce forming larger faults
(Fig.3.1). At this stage, where growth and coalescence start to dominate, faults display
a power-law size distribution with exponents that decrease as strain increases,
indicating the increased importance of large faults in accommodating strain (Cowie et
al., 1995; Ackermann et al., 2001). At later stages of deformation, strain starts to
localize along few large faults that span the mechanical layer and the number of active
faults decreases (Fig.3.1; see also Fig.3.24). With increasing strain, the fault population
reaches saturation and the size distribution turns to exponential (Spyropoulos et al.,
1999; 2002; Ackermann et al., 2001; Hardacre and Cowie, 2003).
Figure 3.1: The fraction of active sites as a function of increasing strain and the main
stages of fault population evolution (from Spyropoulos et al., 2002). Strain is
normalized by disorder and thicker lines correspond to smaller disorder. In the
numerical model of Spyropoulos et al. (2002), disorder is used as a measure of
heterogeneity of the deformed material.
65
In addition, other factors such as the regional stress field, crustal rheology, elastic stress
interactions and the boundary condition of the finite brittle layer may all affect how the
fault system evolves (Hardacre and Cowie, 2003; Cowie et al., 2005). All these factors
contribute to the complexity of the fault network evolution, so that in many cases simple
power-law or exponential distributions may not account for the full-range of the
observed scaling behavior (Davy, 1993; Cladouhos and Marrett, 1996; Vetel et al.,
2005; Soliva and Schultz, 2008; Vallianatos et al., 2011a).
To resolve some of the limitations arising from the description of fault trace-length
distributions using empirical statistical distributions, Vallianatos et al. (2011a) and
Vallianatos and Sammonds (2011), based on the non-extensive statistical mechanics
theory, introduced a statistical mechanics model that describes the cumulative
distribution of fault sizes (§ 2.6.3.3). In the present chapter, I use this model to study
the scaling properties of the fault network in the Corinth Rift. The results are compared
for different strain settings and are discussed in terms of fault growth and the evolution
of the fault network in the Rift.
A brief overview of the regional geodynamics in the broader Hellenic region is initially
provided in § 3.2.1. The physiography of the Rift is introduced in § 3.2.2 and the
geology and deformations patterns are analytically discussed in § 3.2.2 and § 3.2.3, in
order to support the variations of strain in different zones of the Rift. The deformation
patterns are discussed in terms of geodetic extension rates, seismicity, accumulated
sediments in the basin, uplift rates and fault displacements, which provide evidence for
different deformation patterns in time and space. In § 3.3, the fault dataset and the
method that was used to compile it are analytically described. In § 3.4, the NESM
formalism, as it applies to a fault system of various fault trace-lengths is described,
followed by the analysis of the fault dataset and the results for the various strain
settings, in § 3.5. In § 3.6, the results of the analysis and the various implications that
arise for fault growth and the fault network evolution in the Rift are discussed.
The present chapter is based on the article “Satistical mechanics and scaling of fault
populations with increasing strain in the Corinth Rift”, by G. Michas, F. Vallianatos
and P. Sammonds, published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
66
3.2 Tectonic setting
3.2.1 Regional Geodynamics
The area of Greece is the most seismically active area in Europe due to its location on
an active tectonic plate boundary, at the convergence of the Eurasian and African
lithospheric plates (e.g., McKenzie, 1970; Le Pichon and Angelier, 1979). Across the
South Hellenic Subduction Zone (SHSZ, Fig.3.2) the convergence of the subducting
African plate and the Aegean is occurring at rates ~35 mm/yr (McClusky et al., 2000;
Reilinger et al., 2006; Floyd et al., 2010), while further NW the subducting Apulia plate
converges towards Northern Greece across the North Hellenic Subduction Zone
(NHSZ, Fig.3.2) at lower rates of the order ~5-10 mm/yr (Hollenstein et al., 2008). The
SHSZ and NHSZ are offset by the strike-slip Kephalonia Transform Zone (KT, Fig.
3.2), which exhibits a dextral motion of ~25 mm/yr (Le Pichon et al., 1995; Hollenstein
et al., 2008). The regional geodynamics of the Hellenic region are mainly controlled by
these kinematics, together with the westward propagation of Anatolia towards the
Aegean across the right lateral strike-slip North Anatolia Fault (NAF, Fig.3.2) at rates
of ~25 mm/yr (McClusky et al., 2000), (e.g., Le Pichon et al., 1995).
Significant continental extension has been taking place in the back-arc region of the
Aegean since the Oligocene – Miocene (Mercier, 1989). Extensive deformation, from
almost arc-parallel in the Oligocene - Late Miocene, has gradually shifted in the
Pliocene – Quaternary into a series of extending grabens such as the North Aegean
Trough (NAT, Fig.3.2), the Evia graben and the Corinth Rift (Papanikolaou and
Royden, 2007). Seismicity correlates with regional tectonics and is mainly distributed
along these zones, parallel to SHSZ and KT (Fig.3.2; see also Fig.4.1). The regional
geodetic strain rates, the distribution of active faulting and the computed focal
mechanisms indicate that active extension in the Hellenic region mainly takes place
along these zones (Goldsworthy et al., 2002).
3.2.2 Physiography and Geological setting
The Corinth rift is located in central Greece and consists of a ~ 130 km long x 30 km
wide high-strain zone of active deformation (Fig.3.2). Its central part is below sea level
67
forming the Gulf of Corinth, which separates central continental Greece to the north
from Peloponnese to the south (Fig.3.3). The Gulf reaches the maximum depth of ~900
m at its central part and is separated from Patras Gulf to the west by the 60 m deep Rio
straits (Stefatos et al., 2002). To the east, the Gulf is divided by the Perachora Peninsula
into two smaller-scale gulfs, the Alkyonides to the north and the Lechaio to the south
(Fig.3.3). The Gulf of Lechaio is further separated from Saronikos Gulf to the east by
the Corinth Isthmus area.
Figure 3.2: The broader area of Greece and the main tectonic setting (SHSZ: South
Hellenic Subduction Zone, NHSZ: North Hellenic Subduction Zone, KT: Kephalonia
Transform Fault, NAF: North Anatolian Fault, NAT: North Aegean Trough). The
rectangle indicates the Corinth Rift.
The Corinth Rift superimposes the NNW-SSE Hellenides thrust belt that forms the pre-
rift basement (e.g., Doutsos et al., 1993). The thrust sheets are mainly comprised of
thick (up to 3 km) Mesozoic carbonates and Miocene flysch sequences that overthrust
the underlying Zaroucla unit of metamorphic Phyllite-Quartzite series (Dornsiepen et
68
al., 2001; Skourlis and Doutsos, 2003). Beginning of extension in the area has been
estimated in the Pliocene (~5 Myr) (Ori, 1989; Roberts, 1996; Leeder et al., 2008).
Geologic evidence about the age and evolution of the Rift are found in the Pliocene-
Quaternary syn-rift sequences of sedimentary deposits that are exposed on the south
coast of the Rift (Ori, 1989; Armijo et al., 1996; Rohais et al., 2007) (Fig.3.4). The syn-
rift sediments are elevated up to 1200-1600 m above sea level and their mean thickness
can be greater than 2 km in the Akrata - Derveni region (Rohais et al., 2007). Active
sedimentation occurs in the offshore basin and the syn-rift deposits reach the maximum
thickness of > 2 km in the central part of the Gulf (Fig.3.5) (Bell et al., 2009; Taylor et
al., 2011).
Figure 3.3: Topography of the Corinth Rift region. Topography and bathymetry were
extracted from ETOPO1 Global Relief Model (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/).
69
a)
b)
c)
d)
Figure 3.4: a) Simplified geology and the tectonic framework of the Rift, showing the
major active and inactive faults according to Bell et al. (2009). Major active faults have
throws > 500 m and intermediate active faults < 500 m. Geology is after EPPE and
ECPFE (1996; 1997), Ford et al. (2013), IGME geologic maps (1:50000) and
Tsodoulos et al. (2008). The numbers in boxes indicate the locations of the uplift rates
70
shown in Fig.2c. b) Geodetic “horizontal extension rates” across the red line shown in
a), according to Clarke et al. (1998). c) Late Quaternary uplift rates according to 1)
Houghton et al. (2003), 2) De Martini et al. (2004), 3) Leeder et al. (2003), 4) Armijo
et al. (1996), 5) Roberts et al. (2009), 6) and 7) Collier et al. (1992). d) Summation of
upper-crust extension (black) and whole-crust extension derived from crustal thinning
(dark red) and basement subsidence (light grey) along three transects in the Corinth rift
(Bell et al., 2011).
Figure 3.5: The total sediment thickness in the Gulf of Corinth, estimated from seismic
reflection profiles by Taylor et al. (2011). Thin contours are for every 0.25 km and thick
contours for every 1km (from Taylor et al., 2011).
Deformation in the Rift is accommodated by a system of S- and N-dipping normal faults

of an E-W to WNW-ESE general direction, located both onshore and offshore
(Fig.3.4a) (Armijo et al., 1996; Moretti et al., 2003; Bell et al., 2009). The faults present
maximum lengths of about 15 - 25 km and steep dips of ~ 50o (Roberts, 1996). Late
71
Quaternary uplifted terraces and marine notches along the south coast of the Gulf
indicate an active uplifting south coast (Roberts, 1996; Pirazzoli et al., 2004) (Fig.3.4c).
In the north coast of the Gulf such features are absent and the coast appears more
sinuous, suggesting subsidence (Stefatos et al., 2002; Bell et al., 2009). The structure
of the Rift has been interpreted as an asymmetric half-graben due to a dominant N-
dipping south-margin normal fault system that controls the deformation patterns and
sedimentation in the Rift, although offshore seismic reflection profiles reveal several
N- and S- dipping active faults that indicate a more complex basin structure (Moretti et
al., 2003; Bell et al., 2009).
3.2.3 Deformation patterns in the Rift
The deformation patterns and the active faults in the Rift have undergone several
spatiotemporal changes that were associated with distinct phases of strain localization
and strain acceleration (e.g., Rohais et al., 2007; Bell et al., 2009; Roberts et al., 2009;
Taylor et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013). The various indications, regarding the currently
active (short-term) and Quaternary (~ 2 Myr – present) (long-term) deformation
patterns in the Rift, are further discussed in the following two paragraphs.
3.2.3.1 Short-term deformation
Geodetic strain rates estimated by Global Positioning System (GPS) data show a rapid
N-S active extension in the Rift (Clarke et al., 1998; Briole et al., 2000; Chousianitis et
al., 2013). The estimated GPS velocities indicate a faster moving Peloponnese, with
respect to central Greece, towards the SSW (Fig.3.4a). Active extension is focused
offshore, as there is little or no displacement relative to one another between the GPS
stations in north Peloponnese or in the north margin of the Rift (Briole et al., 2000;
Chousianitis et al., 2013). Extension rates have been estimated by 5- to 10-yr GPS
velocities and 100-yr triangulation GPS velocities and indicate higher rates of >15
mm/yr at the western zone, decreasing gradually eastwards to <5-10 mm/yr (Fig.3.4b)
(Clarke et al., 1998; Briole et al., 2000). Greatest rates are calculated in the area west
of Aigion, although variability in the estimated extension rates appears between the
72
various studies (20 - 23 mm/yr, Clarke et al., 1998; 12 - 16 mm/yr Briole et al., 2000).
According to Briole et al. (2000), active deformation is strongly localized in a narrow
zone of 10-15 km in the west offshore zone of the Rift, whereas to the east, deformation
seems to be more diffuse in the area between Corinth and Thiva. In the central zone,
localization of deformation is less well defined due to the wider extent of the Gulf and
the lack of GPS stations offshore.
Figure 3.6: Evolution of the Corinth Rift since onset of distributed extension in the
Pliocene (from Leeder et al., 2012). ΩERP and ΩPRP represent the early and present
rotation poles of the Peloponnese block respectively, with an estimated rotation rate
(Ω) of 6.75°/myr, according to Goldsworthy et al. (2002).
The current configuration of active faulting was established between ~ 0.2 – 0.7 Myr
and present and it is localized in the offshore zone of the Rift and along the south coast
of the Gulf (Fig.3.6) (Bell et al., 2009; Roberts et al., 2009; Leeder et al., 2012; Ford et
al., 2013). In the central and western zones, the localization of strain is evident from
the footwall uplift of the syn-rift Pliocene-Quaternary sediments that are preserved in
northern Peloponnese; in the hanging-walls of the fault system further south that seems
inactive at present (Fig.3.4a) (e.g., Armijo et al., 1996; Goldsworthy and Jackson, 2000;
Rohais et al., 2007). These observations provide evidence for a wider deforming zone
73
during the early-stages of rifting (Roberts et al., 2009; Leeder et al., 2012), although
the narrowing of the Rift with time in its western part is limited (Fig.3.6) (Bell et al.,
2009; Ford et al., 2013; Bell and Jackson, 2015). Similar observations were made to
the east, where active faulting is currently localized in the Perachora peninsula and the
Alkyonides Gulf and once occupied a wider zone that was expanding as far as Nemea
to the south (Fig.3.6) (Goldsworthy and Jackson, 2000; Leeder et al., 2012;
Charalampakis et al., 2014). At the eastern end of the Rift, the NW-SE Megara basin,
filled with ~1 km thick Plio-Pleistocene sediments (Bentham et al., 1991), is considered
inactive and is currently uplifting in the footwall of the active normal fault system that
bounds the Alkyonides Gulf to the south (Fig.3.4a, Fig.3.6) (Leeder et al., 2008). In
addition, average late-Quaternary and Holocene uplift rates along the south coast of the
Gulf give further evidence of an active south margin normal fault system (Fig.3.4c)
(Collier et al., 1992; Armijo et al., 1996; Houghton et al., 2003; Pirazzoli et al., 2004;
De Martini et al., 2004).
Localization of active deformation offshore is further supported by earthquake activity,

where most of the earthquakes are located in the offshore zone, at depths ranging
between 6-11 km in the west and 4-13 km in the east (Hatzfeld et al., 2000; Lyon-Caen
et al., 2004; Lambotte et al., 2014). Although fault geometry at depth is not clear,
seismicity has mainly been associated with the active N-dipping faults that bound the
south margin of the Rift, like the Psathopyrgos, Aigion and Helike faults in the western,
the offshore Xylokastro fault in the central and the Pisia, Schinos and Psatha faults in
the eastern zone of the Rift (Fig.3.4a) (Hatzfeld et al., 2000; Bernard et al., 2006;
Lambotte et al., 2014). Some antithetic S-dipping faults are also seismically active, like
the onshore Kapareli fault in the eastern end of the Rift, which along with the Pisia and
Schinos faults in the Perachora peninsula ruptured at the surface during the 1981
Alkyonides earthquake sequence (Jackson et al., 1982).
3.2.3.2 Long-term deformation
The Quaternary (long-term) deformation rates in the Rift have been estimated by Bell
et al. (2011). By summing the fault heaves for both onshore and offshore faults along
three profiles that intersect the Rift, Bell et al. (2011) estimated the values of total N-S
74
upper-crustal and whole-crust extension during the Quaternary (~2 Myr – present)
(Fig.3.4d) and found greater values of extension (~11–21 km whole-crust extension) in
the central zone, in the area between Akrata and Kiato, decreasing to the west (~5–13
km whole-crust extension) in the area of Aigion (Fig.3.4d). Greater long-term extension
rates in the central zone is further supported by the wider extent and larger thickness of
Pliocene-Quaternary syn-rift sediments (Ghisetti and Vezzani, 2005), the thickest
accumulated sediments within the Gulf of Corinth (Fig.3.5) (Bell et al., 2009; Taylor et
al., 2011), the greater Late Quaternary (~0.4 Myr – present) fault displacements
estimated from fault slip-rates (Bell et al., 2009) and the greater offshore horizontal
extension estimated by summing the fault heaves of offshore faults (Taylor et al., 2011).
This pattern of long-term extension is in contrast to geodetic extension rates that are
increasing to the west (Fig.3.4b). This implies that the current extension pattern might
be a recent phenomenon (Bell et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013). At the eastern zone, in the
area between Corinth and Nemea (Fig.3.4a), the thickness of the Pliocene-Quaternary
syn-rift sediments are less than the central and western zones, indicating lower rates of
long-term extension (Armijo et al., 1996).
Further evidence for greater long-term extension in the central zone is provided by the
estimated long-term average extension rates. Leeder et al. (2008) estimated ~0.9-1.4
mm/yr extension rate in the Alkyonides Gulf due to displacement along the southern
margin normal fault system in the last ~2.2 Myr, in comparison with the greater average
rate of ~3.5 mm/yr in the central (Leeder et al., 2008) and ~1.3-1.5 mm/yr in the western
zone of the Rift (Ford et al., 2013). In addition, Late Quaternary coastal uplift rates
follow a similar pattern. Tectonic uplift at the south coast of the Alkyonides Gulf has
been estimated as ~0.2-0.3 mm/yr (Leeder et al., 1991) and at the Perachora peninsula
as ~0.2-0.6 mm/yr (Collier et al., 1992; Roberts et al., 2009), increasing to ~1.3 mm/yr
(Armijo et al., 1996) in the central zone and to ~1-1.2 mm/yr further west (De Martini
et al., 2004) (Fig.3.4c). All the previous data support greater extension in the central
and western zones of the Rift in comparison with the eastern zone.
3.3 Fault dataset
3.3.1 Fault map and fault trace-lengths
75
The fault dataset used in the present thesis is based on the integration of the existing
literature on the seismotectonic framework of the Rift. Onshore faults have been
mapped in the field and are presented in published geologic maps (scales ranging from
1:5000 to 1:100000), while offshore faults have been identified and mapped from high-
resolution seismic reflection profiles.
In particular, information on surface geology and faulting were taken from various
published maps that cover the entire area of the Rift. The spatial coverage of each map
that has been used to compile the fault dataset is displayed in Fig.3.7 and the associated
number corresponds to the following studies:
1) Geologic map, 1:50000 (IGME, 1984; Nafpaktos sheet).

2) Valkaniotis (2009). Seven geologic maps that cover the area between Nafpaktos
and Neochori, in the north onshore zone of the Rift.
3) Papanikolaou et al. (2009). Geologic map for the Itea-Amfissa region.
4) Neotectonic map, 1:100000 (EPPE and ECPFE, 1997; Leivadia sheet).
5) Tsodoulos et al. (2009). Geologic map for the Thiva basin.
6) Morewood and Roberts (2001). Geologic map for the Kapareli region.
7) Bentham (1991). Geologic map for the Megara basin.
8) Geologic map, 1:50000 (IGME, 1984; Kaparelion sheet).
9) Roberts and Gawthorpe (1995). Geologic map for the northern part of the
Perachora Peninsula.
10) Morewood (2000). Geologic map for the Perachora Peninsula.
11) Geologic map, 1:50000 (IGME, 1984; Sofiko sheet).
12) Neotectonic map, 1:100000 (EPPE and ECPFE, 1996; Korinthos sheet).
13) Leeder et al. (2012). Geologic map for the Xylokastro - Akrata region.
14) Rohais et al. (2007). Geologic map for the Derveni - Akrata region.
15) Ford et al. (2013). Geologic map for the Derveni - Kalavrita region.
16) Ghisetti and Vezzani (2005). Geologic map for the Xylokastro - Aigion region.
17) Palyvos et al. (2005). Geologic map for the Aigion region.
18) Palyvos et al. (2007a). Geologic map for the Psathopyrgos region.
19) Palyvos et al. (2007b). Geologic map for the Psathopyrgos region.
20) Geologic map, 1:50000 (IGME, 1984; Chalandtritsa sheet).
21) Flotte (2005). Geologic map for the Patra region.
76
These studies were supplemented by the geologic maps of Moretti et al. (2003) and
Jolivet et al. (2010) that cover the entire region of the Rift.
Figure 3.7: Spatial coverage of the published geologic maps that were used to compile
the fault dataset in the Corinth Rift. Each map was geo-referenced in the Google Earth
platform. The numbers correspond to the published studies listed in the text.
In geologic maps faults are represented as crude thick lines. In order to achieve high
spatial resolution of fault-traces on the surface, each map was geo-referenced in a
geographical information system interface (Google Earth) (Fig.3.7). Following this
procedure a 3-D visualization of the surface geology is achieved. The high spatial
resolution 3-D topography in Google Earth and the 3-D surface geology can be used to
locate the fault-trace more accurately. According to this method, the scarps of the faults
that have been mapped in the field can be identified and the fault-trace coordinates can
be precisely defined within a few meters (Roberts, 2008; Faure Walker, 2010). This
method was followed to accurately locate the trace of each fault that was previously
mapped in the field and presented in the geologic maps. The fault trace was then
mapped by using the path tool in Google Earth. Following this method, the actual trace
path that is seldom linear can be directly measured, rather than measuring the linear
77
distance between the tips of the fault that is the common practice in the literature.
Snapshots of the mapped fault traces in Google Earth are shown in Fig.3.8.
a)
b)
78
c)
Figure 3.8: a) Panoramic view of the north Perachora Peninsula from the north-west
and the mapped fault traces (AspF/, Asprokambos Faults 1, 2 and 3; AlkF, Alkiona
Fault; SchF, Schinos Fault; PisF, Pisia Fault). b) Panoramic view from the north of the
Xylokastron (XF) and Korfiotisa Faults (KrF). c) Panoramic view of the Delphi valley
from the east and the mapped traces of the Delphi (DelF) and Chriso Faults (ChF). In
the insets, the location of each image with respect to the Corinth Rift is shown with the
white rectangle.
Information on the structure and the tectonic setting of the offshore zone of the Rift is
provided by various offshore geophysical surveys that are summarized in Table 3.1.
The spatial coverage and the seismic lines of each survey are shown in Fig.3.9. The
seismic reflection profiles gained in each survey provide a rather good spatial coverage
of the entire offshore area (Fig.3.9). The seismic profiles were interpreted in terms of
bathymetry, stratigraphy and tectonic structure (e.g., Fig.3.10) by various research
groups and were published in the studies listed in Table 3.1. Faults that offset the
resolved stratigraphy were identified in the seismic profiles and mapped (Fig.3.10). The
published data were used to compile the fault network offshore. In each case, the
location and size of the fault were primarily adopted from the study that uses seismic
profiles with better spatial coverage in that particular area of the Rift (Fig.3.9; Table
A.1).
79
Figure 3.9: Map showing the seismic lines of each survey listed in Table 3.1. The
seismic reflection profiles gained were used in each study (Table 3.1) to interpret the
fault network offshore.
Following the previously described procedure, a total number of 391 faults were
mapped in the Rift and are presented in Fig.3.11. The dataset includes only the
basement displacing faults. The seismic reflection profiles revealed several minor
offshore faults that do not displace the surface and their geometry has not been
accurately defined (Bell et al., 2009; Taylor et al., 2011; Charalambakis et al., 2014;
Beckers et al., 2015). These faults are not shown in Fig.3.11 and are not included in the
dataset. The code name, length, dip direction and spatial distribution of each fault
shown in Fig.3.11 are presented in Table A.1 (Appendix A), along with the
corresponding references. The majority of the mapped faults are located onshore (290
faults), 90 faults are located offshore and 11 have both onshore and offshore extensions.
The minimum fault trace-length is 0.34 km and the maximum 29.3 km. The histogram
of fault trace-lengths versus their frequencies shows that the majority of faults present
trace-lengths below 5 km (Fig.3.12), with an average of 5.04 km.
80
Table 3.1: Summary of the marine geophysical surveys and the corresponding studies,
which were used to compile the fault dataset offshore.
Survey Source References
R/V Maurice Ewing (EW0108) Multi-channel air-gun Taylor et al., 2011

2001
RRS Shackleton 1982 Single-channel air-gun Stefatos et al., 2002; Bell et al.,
2009
M.V. Vasilios 1994 Single-channel Sparker Stefatos et al., 2002
M.V. Vasilios 1996/1 Single-channel Sparker Stefatos et al., 2002
M.V. Vasilios 1996/2 Single-channel Sparker Leeder et al., 2002
M.V. Vasilios 2003 Multi-channel Sparker McNeill et al., 2005; Bell et al.,
2008; 2009
1996 survey Single-channel air-gun Sakelariou et al., 2007
Hellenic Center for Marine Single-channel air-gun Charalampakis et al., 2014

Research (HCMR) 2004
Hellenic Center for Marine Single-channel Pinger Charalampakis et al., 2014
Research (HCMR) 2010
2004 survey Single-channel Pinger and Charalampakis et al., 2014
Sparker
R/V ALKYON 2011/2012 Single-channel Sparker Beckers et al., 2015
3.3.2 Possible errors in the dataset
Estimation of the actual fault trace-length is subjected to errors that can be attributed to
the mapping technique and the geological processes during faulting (Bonnet et al.,
2001). When faults rupture and displace the surface, the slip surfaces are usually semi-
elliptical (Dawers et al., 1993). If the fault is well exposed, its trace can be accurately
resolved at the meter scale in the field, depending on the scale of the background map
and the accuracy of GPS instruments used to map its trace on surface. Around the tips
of the fault, where displacement dies to zero, erosion and/or vegetation may hinder the
actual tip. Erosion is even more pronounced when alluvial rivers form gorges that
81
crosscut the fault surfaces. These factors may produce an underestimation of the trace-
length that is usually less than few meters or tens of meters.
Figure 3.10: a) Uninterpreted and b) Interpreted seismic profile (M.V. Vasilios survey
2003) obtained from the western Gulf of Corinth (from Bell et al., 2008).
Figure 3.11: Simplified geology and the fault network in the Corinth Rift (next page).
The code names, trace-lengths and the corresponding references for each fault are given
in Table A.1.
82
83
In the case where satellite imagery is used to trace a fault, the relative errors are
associated with the spatial resolution of the imagery, below which the fault
displacement cannot be detected. For the digital elevation profile (DEM) used in the
Google Earth platform the relative error is normally less than few tens of meters. In
addition, some large faults in the Rift are segmented due to erosion and gorges that
crosscut the displacement surfaces (e.g., the Pirgaki-Mamousia fault zone and the
Helike faults). In these cases, the various segments were counted as one fault. The
overall error in the fault trace-lengths due to these identified factors was estimated to
be less than 10% of their length for the onshore faults.
80
70
60
50
Frequency
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Fault Length (km)
Figure 3.12: Histogram of frequency versus fault trace-lengths of the fault dataset.
For the offshore faults, the possible errors are related to the density of seismic lines in
each survey (Fig.3.9; Table 3.1) and the resolution of the seismic reflection profiles.
Spacing of seismic lines is not uniform but varies between few hundreds meters in some
parts of the Gulf to 1-2 km in some others (Fig.3.9). Hence, the undersampling of
offshore faults with lengths less than at least 1 km might be expected. In each case, the
fault trace-length was adopted from the study that has better spatial coverage in that
particular part of the Gulf. The offshore faults and the related references are listed in
84
Table A.1 (Appendix A). The error in the estimated trace-length for the offshore faults
is greater than that for the onshore faults, reaching up to 20% of their total length.
The possible underestimation of fault trace-lengths due to limited resolution at the tips
of the fault has been treated in the literature by adding a constant value to the length of
each fault (Pickering et al., 1995; Gupta and Scholz, 2000a). This value corresponds to
the spatial resolution of the mapping technique. In the present case, the various
techniques used in each case to map the trace of the fault on the surface, does not allow
for a single estimation of the possible error.
3.4 Generalized Statistical Mechanics Formalism
The generalized statistical mechanics formalism, as it applies to a fault network that

present various fault trace-lengths L, was introduced by Vallianatos et al. (2011a) and
Vallianatos and Sammonds (2011). Since L can take any real value between the
minimum (Lmin) and maximum (Lmax) fault trace-length in the area under study, the
entropy Sq is expressed in the integral form:
dL
1   p( L)
q
Sq  k  , (3.1)
q 1
where σ is a positive scaling factor, k a positive constant, q the entropic index and
p(L)dL the probability of finding L in the interval [L, L+dL]. The optimization
procedure of Sq, under the appropriate constraints and by using the Lagrange multipliers
method was described in detail in § 2.6.2. By setting k=1 and under the constraints of
the normalization of p(L),  p( L)dL  1 and the q-expectation value of the mean,
 L  p( L) dL
q
L  , Sq is optimized by the stationary distribution

  p( L) dL
q q
p ( L) 
1
Zq  
expq    L  L q  , where Zq is the partition function
  , exp (X) is the q-exponential distribution that has

Lmax
Zq   dL expq   * L  L
0
 q q
85

been defined in § 2.6.2 and Eq.2.43 and  *  , where λ is the
dL
 p  L  
Lmax

q
0  
standard Lagrange multiplier (Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2011). The upper bound
Lmax corresponds to a theoretical infinite fault trace-length value, but practically it does
not exceed the size of the area under study. For convenience in the calculations, a
minimum fault-length of zero was used by Vallianatos and Sammonds (2011) as the
lower bound in the integration, since Lmin << Lmax.
The cumulative distribution function P(>L) is obtained after integrating the escort
probability distribution Pq(L),

 L
P( L)   Pq ( L)dL  exp q    , (3.2)
L  L0 
1
where L0 is a positive scaling parameter (q > 1) given by L0  1  q  L q  .
*
According to Telesca (2012), Eq. 3.2 should be slightly changed to be consistent with
real observations, to the form:
 L
exp q   
P (  L)   L0  , (3.3)
 L 
exp q   min 
 L0 
where Lmin is the minimum fault-length in the dataset.
3.5 Analysis of the fault dataset
3.5.1 The cumulative distribution function
The scaling properties of fault trace-lengths are most frequently described in the
literature by using the cumulative distribution function N(>L) (e.g., Cladouhos and
Marret, 1996; Bonnet et al., 2001), which describes the number of faults with length
greater than L. This function is preferred to the probability distribution function n(L)
because it can be easily computed without binning the data. The choice of the bin size
86
can be critical, since it can alter the number of faults that fall into each bin and hence
alter the smoothing trend of the distribution (Bonnet et al., 2001). In the fitting process,
this might produce larger errors in the estimated exponents or scaling factors. In
addition, most fault datasets are low-numbered so the cumulative distribution function
will produce smoother distribution trends.
In the following analysis, N(>L) is used to describe the scaling properties of fault trace-
lengths. In practice, N(>L) is estimated by subtracting incrementally the frequency of
L. For a fault dataset of total number N and length values of L1, L2,..., LN, where the
values of L are in ascending order, the number of faults with length greater than L1 will
be N-1, greater than L2, N-2 and so on. Hence, the cumulative distribution N(>L) will
have maximum value equal to N and minimum equal to one. Since Eq.3.3 assumes
probabilities between 0 and 1, P(>L) is multiplied by the total number of faults in each
case in order to fit the observed N(>L). The nlinfit tool in Matlab® is used to fit Eq.3.3
to the data. The nlinfit tool applies the Levenberg – Marquardt (LM) nonlinear least-
square algorithm (Levenberg, 1944; Marquardt, 1963) to the data and is further
discussed in § 4.4.2. The corresponding Matlab® script for performing the analysis is
given in Appendix C.
3.5.2 Possible biases in the fault-length distribution
Possible biases in the shape of the cumulative distribution of fault trace-lengths have
been reported as being the result of scale limitations in the dataset. These are known as
“truncation” and “censoring” effects and are related to short and long fault-lengths
respectively (Pickering et al., 1995; Bonnet et al., 2001). The population of short faults
can be incomplete in scales below the resolution limit of the mapping technique used.
This is known as “truncation” effect and has been associated with the convex upward
shape that the cumulative distribution frequently presents. This causes deviations of the
observed distribution from a “perfect” power-law that plots as a straight line on double
logarithmic axes. This part of the distribution is simply excluded from the analysis in
some studies, by setting a lower threshold below which small faults are thought to be
undersampled (Pickering et al., 1995; Ackermann and Schlische, 1997). However, in
other studies a convex upward distribution has been recognized as a “true” property of
the fault dataset (Vetel et al., 2005). Another possible reason for deviation from the
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power-law trend is the existence of a natural lower cut-off at small scales that causes
the fall-off in the slope of the distribution (Odling, 1997; Bonnett et al., 2001).
“Censoring” refers to finite-size effects that may appear in larger faults, if their size is
larger than the sampling area. This causes the underestimation of the actual trace-length
and a “fall-off” in the distribution may appear at large scales.
“Censoring” effects are not expected to bias the fault dataset used in the present thesis,
as the sampled area of the Rift is much larger than the estimated maximum fault length.
Furthermore, the following analysis is restricted to faults with length ≥ 1 km, in order
to account for possible incompleteness in small faults. Below this value, the frequency
of the mapped faults decreases significantly (Fig.3.12), indicating that the population
might be incomplete.
3.5.3 Scaling properties of the fault population
Initially, the scaling properties of the complete fault dataset are analyzed, with 367
faults for L ≥ 1 km. The cumulative number of fault trace-lengths N(>L) and the
corresponding fit according to Eq.3.3 are shown in Fig.3.13. Eq.3.3 provides a good fit
over the full-range of scales for the parameter values of q=1.03 ±0.011 and L0=4.21
±0.031. In the limit of q→1, Eq.3.3 reduces to the exponential function, so the observed
q-value close to unity indicates an almost exponential scaling and the proximity towards
a Poissonian organization of the fault network in the Rift. In the inset of Fig.3.13, the
corresponding q-logarithmic distribution lnq[N(>L)] is shown that approaches linearty
with the correlation coefficient of 0.998.
3.5.4 Scaling properties for the short-term strain rates
Possible variations in the scaling properties of the fault population are investigated for
the short-term deformation patterns in the Rift. In § 3.2.3.1, it has been discussed that
the currently active Rift zone is confined to the narrow offshore zone and the Perachora
Peninsula to the east. According to this pattern, the current high strain rate setting
includes most of the offshore faults in the Gulf of Corinth and the Alkyonides Gulf, the
onshore faults in the Perachora Peninsula and the active Kapareli, Psatha, Marathias,
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Psathopyrgos, Aigion, Helike, Labiri, Selianitika, and Fassouleika faults (the last three
comprise the active Neos Erineos fault zone; Palyvos et al., 2005) (Fig.3.14). In the
cuurent low strain rate setting, all the remaining faults that are mainly located onshore
are included (Fig.3.14).
Figure 3.13: Cumulative number of fault lengths N(>L) (filled circles) for the complete
fault dataset in the Corinth Rift (L ≥ 1 km). The corresponding fit is according to Eq.3.3
for the values of q=1.03 and L0=4.21 (solid line). Inset: the corresponding q-logarithmic
distribution lnq[N(>L)] that presents the correlation coefficient of 0.998.
The dataset in the current high strain rate zone (active Rift zone) is comprised of 133
faults for L ≥ 1 km and presents the average trace-length of Lavg=6.09 km. In the low
strain rate zone (inactive Rift zone), the dataset is comprised of 234 faults (L ≥ 1 km)
and presents a lower average trace-length of Lavg=4.88 km. The cumulative number
N(>L) for the two datasets is shown in Fig.3.15. The figure shows that although both
datasets share similar numbers of faults with trace-lengths greater than ~8 km, the low-
strain setting has a greater number of small-size faults leading to the lower average
trace-length.
89
The scaling behavior for the two strain rate settings is shown in Fig.3.16, where the
data are fitted according to Eq.(3.3). In the high strain rate setting, the q-value
approaches unity, so that the observed N(>L) exhibits exponential scaling (Fig.3.16a).
In the low strain rate setting, N(>L) is better described by Eq.3.3 for the values of
q=1.13 ±0.019 and L0=3.22 ±0.055 (Fig.3.16b). In the insets of Fig.3.16a, b, the
corresponding semi-log and semi q-log functions are shown that approximate linearity
with the correlation coefficients of 0.994 and 0.998 respectively. These results indicate
the transition from asymptotic power-law to exponential scaling from the currently
inactive to the currently active Rift zone.
Figure 3.14: Simplified geology and the fault network in the Corinth Rift, indicating
the current high and low strain rate settings with red and black colors respectively.
Vallianatos (2013a) showed that for two subsystems of total number N1 and N2 that are
described by different q-values, the distribution of the composite system will exhibit
the q-value of q = (q1lnN1+q2lnN2) / (lnN1+lnN2). By substituting in the previous
equation the values of q1=1, N1=133, q2=1.13 and N2=234 found for the high and low
strain rate settings respectively, the q-value of 1.07 is estimated for the entire fault
population that is similar to the q-value of 1.03 found by fitting the data.
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High strain rate setting

Low strain rate setting
2
10
Cumulative Number N (>L)
1
10
0
10
0 1
10 10
Fault Length (km)
Figure 3.15: Cumulative number of fault trace-lengths N(>L) for the high and low-
strain rate settings, according to the short-term deformation pattern in the Rift.
a)
91
b)
Figure 3.16: a) Cumulative number of fault trace-lengths N(>L) for the current high
strain rate setting and the corresponding fit according to the exponential function. Inset:
N(>L) in semi-log axes exhibiting the correlation coefficient of 0.994. b) N(>L) for the
current low strain rate setting and the corresponding fit according to Eq.3.3 for the
values of q=1.13 and L0=3.22. Inset: the corresponding q-logarithmic distribution
lnq[N(>L)] that presents the correlation coefficient of 0.998.
3.5.5 Scaling properties for long-term deformation
The scaling properties of fault trace-lengths are further analyzed for the long-term
(Quaternary; ~ 2 Myr - present) deformation patterns in the Rift. In § 3.2.3.2 it was
discussed that the central and western zones of the Rift experienced greater extension
during the Quaternary than the eastern zone. The area of the Rift is divided into the
three zones by taking into account the longitudes of long-term extension rates (Fig.3.4d)
as estimated by Bell et al. (2011), the Late-Quaternary tectonic uplift rates along the
Rift (Fig.3.4c) and the Late Quaternary fault displacements and accumulated sediments
within the Gulf of Corinth (Fig.3.5) (Bell et al., 2009; 2011). The eastern zone includes
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the Alkyonides and the Lechaio Gulfs, the Perachora Peninsula and the Megara, Thiva,
and Corinth basins (Fig.3.17). The central zone covers the area between Akrata and
Kiato in the south coast of the Gulf, the area between Galaxidi and Livadia to the north
and the central area of the Gulf of Corinth, where the Gulf reaches greater depths and
the accumulated sediments are thickest. The area west of Akrata and Galaxidi and up
tο the Rion straits constitutes the western zone (Fig.3.17).
Figure 3.17: The western, central and eastern zones of the Rift considered as the long-
term strain regimes.
The dataset in the eastern zone has 162 faults, in the central 120 faults and in the western
85 faults, for L ≥ 1 km. Wherever the line that is drawn to divide the different zones of
the Rift (Fig.3.17) intersects a fault trace, this fault is considered as part of the zone
where its greater length lies. The cumulative number N(>L) of fault trace-lengths for
the three datasets is shown in Fig.3.18. The similarity in the shape of N(>L) of the
western and central zones is observed. In contrast, N(>L) in the eastern zone intersects
the other two, with a greater number of small-size faults and a lower number of
intermediate and large-size faults in comparison with the central zone. The average
fault trace-length in the eastern zone is Lavg=4.41 km, in comparison with Lavg=6.3 km
and Lavg=5.66 km in the central and western zones respectively.
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East
2 Central
10
West
Cumulative Number N (>L)
1
10
0
10
0 1
10 10
Fault Length (km)
Figure 3.18: Cumulative number of fault trace-lengths N(>L) for the eastern (black
circles), central (blue squares) and western zones (brown diamonds) of the Rift
respectively.
The scaling behavior of N(>L) for the three zones is shown in Fig.3.19, where N(>L) is
fitted according to Eq.3.3. In both the western and central zones, the q-value approaches
unity indicating exponential scaling (Fig.3.19a, b). The exponential function is fitted to
the data, providing a good fit to the observed N(>L). In the insets of Fig.3.19a, b the
corresponding semi-log plots are shown, where N(>L) approaches linearity with the
correlation coefficients of 0.995 for both western and central zones. In contrast, N(>L)
of the eastern zone is best described by Eq.3.3 for the values of q=1.22 ±0.045 and
L0=2.57 ±0.012 (Fig.3.19c). In the inset of Fig.3.19c, the corresponding q-logarithmic
distribution lnq[N(>L)] for the eastern zone is shown that approaches linearity with the
correlation coefficient of 0.995. These results indicate the transition from asymptotic
power-law scaling in the low-strain eastern zone to exponential scaling in the high-
strain central and western zones. Therefore, a similar transition with increasing strain
is observed as previously, when the short-term strain rates in the Rift were considered.
94
a)
b)
95
c)
Figure 3.19: a) Cumulative number of fault trace-lengths N(>L) in the western zone
(diamonds) and the corresponding fit (solid line) according to the exponential function.
Inset: N(>L) in semi-log axes that exhibits the correlation coefficient of 0.995. b) N(>L)
in the central zone (squares) and the corresponding fit (solid line) according to the
exponential function. Inset: N(>L) in semi-log axes that exhibits the correlation
coefficient of 0.995. c) N(>L) in the eastern zone (circles) and the corresponding fit
(solid line) according to Eq.3.3 for the values of q=1.22 and L0=2.57. Inset: the
corresponding q-logarithmic distribution lnq[N(>L)] that presents the correlation
coefficient of 0.995.
3.5.6 Robustness of the results
The results obtained for the various strain zones seem robust, in the sense that they are
not affected by the particular classification of single faults in one strain zone or another
that was followed here. For instance, if the faults in the Perachora Peninsula are
considered in the current low strain rate zone rather than the high strain rate zone
(Fig.3.14), the scaling behavior of the fault trace-lengths in each of the two zones will
96
still be similar. The same occurs if the lines that were drawn to divide the western,
central and eastern zones (Fig.3.17) are slightly moved to include different faults.
In addition, the fault dataset used in the analysis might be incomplete due to missing
faults that have not been mapped. To further test the robustness of the results and their
sensitiveness to missing data, synthetic fault-length distributions are generated that
follow the q-exponential type distribution of Eq.3.3. From each distribution data are
randomly removed and the scaling behavior of the remaining data is estimated. This
procedure is repeated several times and the scaling variations that appear from the
original q-exponential distribution that the data were generated from are estimated.
The method that was followed to generate the synthetic datasets is the Markov chain
Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and the Metropolis-Hasting algorithm (Newman and
Barkema, 1999). MCMC methods and particularly the Metropolis-Hasting (M-H)
algorithm (Metropolis et al., 1953; Hastings, 1970) are extensively used in the
simulation of nonstandard, complex distributions. The basic idea behind sampling a
probability distribution p(x) by using the M-H algorithm is to use a Markov chain to
generate a sequence of x values, which asymptotically reach the stationary distribution
π(x) in such a way that  ( x)  p( x) . This problem is approached by using a proposed
probability density q(x,y), with  q  x, y  dy  1, to reach the target distribution p(x).

The Markov process is started at an arbitrary value x0 and includes a large number of
iterations j (j=1, 2,…,N). In each iteration j a new candidate value xj is generated from
the proposed density q( x j | x j 1 ) depending on the previous state of the Markov chain
xj-1. Then the candidate value xj is accepted or rejected according to the acceptance
probability A( x j | x j 1 ) given by:
 q( x j 1 | x j ) ( x j ) 
A( x j | x j 1 )  min 1, ,  ( x j 1 )q( x j | x j 1 )  0
 q( x | x ) ( x ) 
 j j 1 j 1 
A( x j | x j 1 )  1 ,  ( x j 1 )q( x j | x j 1 )  0.
The candidate value xj is accepted if the acceptance probability is greater than or equal
to a random number between 0 and 1, generated by the uniform distribution U(0, 1) and
is rejected otherwise (e.g., Chib and Greenberg, 1995):
97
x j  x j if U  A( x j | x j 1 ) and
.
x j  x j 1 if U  A( x j | x j 1 )
The previous steps are repeated many times until the N number of x values is obtained.
In the implementation of the M-H algorithm, the appropriate selection of the proposed
probability density can be crucial (Rosenthal, 2010). To efficiently sample the q-
exponential distribution (Eq.3.3), the t (student) distribution:
 1 
  2 
 1
 2   x  2
f ( x)  1   ,
    
   
2
with ν=2, was chosen as the proposed one. The t-distribution presents heavy tails and
in comparison to the normal distribution is more prone to generating values that fall
away from the mean. The mhsample code in Matlab® was used to apply the M-H
algorithm and to generate the synthetic datasets of the q-exponential type.
Ten datasets, each comprised of 100,000 L values that follow Eq.3.3 for the values of
q=1.15 and L0=2.9 (Fig.3.20) were generated and another ten datasets for the values of
q=1.25 and L0=2.1 (Fig.3.21). Initially, 10 subsets of 104 values each were randomly
selected from each dataset and the corresponding q and L0 were estimated. The
cumulative distributions P(>L) for each subset are plotted in Fig.3.20b and Fig.3.21b
and the estimated q-values and the respective errorbars in Fig.3.20e and Fig.3.21e, for
the two cases of different q-values respectively. Although the subsets include only 10%
of the initial values, the estimated q and L0 values remain quite stable, with q deviations
of the order of ±0.03 (Fig.3.20e,f and Fig.3.21e,f) and for L0 ±0.1. The previous analysis
is repeated for 20 subsets of 103 L values each and 50 subsets of 102 L values each,
which are randomly selected from the original datasets. The cumulative distributions
P(>L) for each subset are plotted in Fig.3.20c and Fig.3.20d respectively for the datasets
that follow Eq.3.3 with q=1.15 and in Fig.21c and Fig.21d respectively for those with
q=1.25. The estimated q-values and the respective errorbars are shown in Fig.20e and
Fig.21e for the two cases respectively. The boxplots of the estimated q-values versus
sample size of the subsets are shown in Fig.20f and Fig.21f for the two cases
respectively. The boxplots indicate the median value, the 25% and 75% quartiles and
98
the minimum and maximum estimated q-values for each case. As it might be expected,
the variability of q and L0 increases with decreasing number of L values (Fig.3.20e,f
and Fig.3.21e,f). However, even though the 99% or the 99.9% of the initial L values
were removed, the remaining data still follow Eq.3.3. In the case of 0.1% remaining L
values, the variability of the estimated q and L0 values from the original q and L0 values
that the data were generated from reaches ±0.1 and ±0.8 respectively. These results give
support to the robustness of the results found previously from the analysis in the various
strain regimes, even in the case where faults are missing from the dataset.
a) b)
c) d)
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e) f)
Figure 3.20: a) Ten synthetic datasets, each comprised of 100000 L values that follow
the cumulative distribution function given in Eq.3.3, for the values of q=1.15 and
L0=2.9 (black line). b) From each of the initial datasets, 10 subsets of 104 L values each
(100 total subsets) were randomly selected and their cumulative distribution is plotted.
All subsets follow Eq.3.3 for the values of q=1.15 ±0.03 and L0=2.9 ±0.1. c) For 20
randomly selected subsets of 103 L values each (200 total subsets). All subsets follow
Eq.3.3 for the values of q=1.15 ±0.05 and L0=2.9 ±0.3. d) For 50 randomly selected
subsets of 102 L values each (500 total subsets). All subsets follow Eq.3.3 for the values
of q=1.15 ±0.1 and L0=2.9 ±0.8. In each plot, the black solid line indicates the initial
distribution that the data were generated from and the black dashed lines the ± standard
deviation. e) The estimated q-values and the respective error bars versus the sample
size of the various subsets. The solid line indicates the q-value of the original
distribution that the subsets were generated from. f) The boxplots of the estimated q-
values for the various subsets.
a) b)
100
c) d)
e) f)
Figure 3.21: a) Ten synthetic datasets, each comprised of 100000 L values that follow
the cumulative distribution function given in Eq.3.3, for the values of q=1.25 and
L0=2.1 (black line). b) From each of the initial datasets, 10 subsets of 104 L values each
(100 total subsets) are randomly selected and their cumulative distribution is plotted.
All subsets follow Eq.3.3 for the values of q=1.25 ±0.02 and L0=2.1 ±0.1. c) For 20
randomly selected subsets of 103 L values each (200 total subsets). All subsets follow
Eq.3.3 for the values of q=1.25 ±0.05 and L0=2.1 ±0.2. d) For 50 randomly selected
subsets of 102 L values each (500 total subsets). All subsets follow Eq.3.3 for the values
of q=1.25 ±0.1 and L0=2.1 ±0.7. In each plot, the black solid line indicates the original
distribution that the data were generated from and the black dashed lines the ± standard
deviation. e) The estimated q-values and the respective error bars versus the sample
size of the various subsets. The solid line indicates the q-value of the original
distribution that the subsets were generated from. f) The boxplots of the estimated q-
values for the various subsets.
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3.6 Discussion
3.6.1 Discussion of the results
Analysis of the complete fault population and the various subsets showed that the
generalized statistical mechanics model (Eq.3.3) describes well the scaling behavior of
fault trace-lengths in the Corinth Rift, for various q-values in the range of 1
(exponential) to 1.22. For q > 1, the distribution exhibits an asymptotic power-law
behavior that reduces to the exponential in the limit of q→1. The q-value indicates how
far or close to exponential and Poissonian behavior the distribution is and it may then
be considered as an indication of how strong the interactions in the system are. In the
case of only short-range interactions, q-value approaches unity and Sq reduces to the
standard SBGS.
Analysis of the fault-length distributions using the generalized statistical mechanics

approach offers an underlying generative principle and a unified framework that
produces a range of power-law to exponential distributions that are both observed in
natural fault systems. In addition, it provides robust results even in the case of missing
data and a more rigorous way to study both qualitatively and quantitatively the scaling
properties of fault populations, without making assumptions about the distribution that
best fits the data or the range of observations that follow this particular scaling.
3.6.2 Implications for fault growth
The most prominent feature revealed from the analysis is the transition from asymptotic
power-law in the eastern low-strain zone, to exponential scaling in the central and
western high-strain zones in the Rift. If the currently active and inactive Rift zones are
considered, a similar transition from asymptotic power-law in the current low strain
rate zone, to exponential scaling in the high strain rate zone is observed. The transition
from one scaling regime to the other becomes apparent as the q-value, from values
greater than one in the low-strain settings, approaches unity in the high-strain settings
and the cumulative distribution turns to exponential. These results provide quantitative
evidence for such crustal processes in natural fault systems and in a single tectonic
setting and are in agreement with the results of Gupta and Scholz (2000a), who made a
qualitative interpretation of their fault dataset, without fitting the fault-length
102
distributions, to show a similar transition with increasing strain in the fault populations
of the Afar Rift.
The observed properties in the distinct strain zones of the Rift are summarized in
Fig.3.22. In the low-strain zones the number of faults is greater, the average fault trace-
length is less and the cumulative distribution displays asymptotic power-law scaling.
This is in contrast to the high-strain zones, where the number of faults is less, the
average fault trace-length is greater and exponential scaling appears in the cumulative
distribution. These properties, in analogy to the stages of fault population evolution as
defined in numerical models and laboratory experiments, suggest different stages of
spatial and temporal evolution in the distinct strain zones of the Rift. In the high-strain
zones, exponential scaling suggests the “maturity” of the fault network and “fracture
saturation”, where faults grow by coalescence to create longer faults rather than growth.
In the low-strain zones, the greater number of small-size faults suggests that nucleation
and growth still dominate over coalescence leading to scale-invariant fault growth and
asymptotic power-law scaling.
Previous studies on the scaling properties of the fault network in the Corinth Rift made
similar suggestions regarding “maturity” and “fracture saturation”, although subsets
and not the entire fault network were analyzed (Poulimenos, 2000; Zygouri et al.,
2008). Poulimenos (2000) studied the onshore SW part of the Rift and suggested
“fracture saturation”, although the high- and low-strain settings were both interpreted
using power-law distributions. Poulimenos (2000) estimated higher displacement:
length ratios in the high-strain zone, similar to the results of Gupta and Scholz (2000a)
for the Afar Rift. Such results suggest that when saturation is achieved, faults grow by
displacement rather than length to accommodate increasing strain, causing the
displacement rates to increase (Nicol et al., 1997). Such increases in the displacement
rates of faults were reported for the Late Quaternary (~ 0.7 Myr – present) by Ford et
al. (2013) for the SW part of the Rift and by Roberts et al. (2009) for the Perachora
Peninsula.
103
Figure 3.22: Summary of the observed properties in the different strain zones of the
Rift.
Zygouri et al. (2008) used a different dataset to study only active faults in the Rift and
suggested the maturity and saturation of the active fault system. Zygouri et al. divided
the dataset into onshore and offshore faults and interpreted both fault trace-length
distributions as “bi-fractal”, where the scaling behavior was described by two power-
laws with different exponents. The authors suggested that both populations follow
similar growth patterns for intermediate and large-size faults, while for small-size faults
nucleation is more prominent in the offshore than the onshore zone. By contrast, the
analysis of the entire fault population for the short-term strain rates obtained in the
present thesis, suggests that nucleation and growth is more pronounced in the onshore
low strain rate zone rather than the offshore high strain rate one.
104
3.6.3 Implications for the fault network evolution in the Rift
The progression of the fault trace-length distribution towards exponential scaling

suggests the suppression of long-range fault interactions with increasing strain. Fault
interactions are created as the fault system grows in size and faults start to interact
through their stress fields (Fig.3.23) (e.g., Sornette et al., 1990; Cowie, 1998b; Gupta
and Scholz, 2000b). According to Sornette et al. (1990), brittle failure along a fault
causes the redistribution of strain perturbations in the medium that decay algebraically
with distance according to the equations of elasticity, producing interactions in the far
field. In the near field, stress interactions around larger faults, where strain localizes,
produce a combination of stress screening and enhancement effects (e.g., Cowie,
1998b; Gupta and Scholz, 2000b). This effect is shown in Fig.3.23, where a slip event
on a normal fault causes a stress increase along the fault strike and a stress drop
transverse to strike (Gupta and Scholz, 2000b). In earthquake triggering, this
mechanism is quite important as it may accelerate or retard upcoming events on
neighboring faults (King et al., 1994). In fault growth, the stress perturbations around
larger faults favor deformation in some areas, while other areas remain relatively
undeformed. Hence, optimally oriented faults in stress increase zones continue to grow,
while other faults in stress drop zones may cease activity.
Figure 3.23: The stress field around a normal fault. The stress field produces an area
of stress drop around the main body of the fault and stress increase near the tips of the
fault (from Gupta and Scholz, 2000b).
105
Figure 3.24: The main stages of fault network evolution according to the numerical
model of Cowie (1998b). A stress feedback mechanism has a dominant role in the
model. a) Stage 1: nucleation of many isolated faults. b) Stage 2: enhanced growth of
optimally oriented faults (W, X, Y and Z). Activity is suppressed at those faults that are
not optimally located. c) Stage 3: localization of deformation at a few large faults that
grow by linkage (Y and Z). In intervening regions faults become inactive (X and W).
Stress interactions are incorporated in various models of fault growth (Cowie, 1998b;
Ackermann et al., 2001; Soliva and Schultz, 2008). Cowie (1998b) developed a
numerical model to explain the spatiotemporal variations in the growth rates of faults.
The model is based on a stress-feedback mechanism that is related to stress interactions
on neighboring faults. During a seismic rupture on a fault, the surrounding stress field
106
is perturbed and seismic ruptures on neighboring faults that are optimally oriented are
accelerated while the stress levels on other faults are relaxed. Cowie showed how this
mechanism could lead to the rapid localization of strain and the increase of
displacement rates in optimally oriented faults in the stress increase zones (Fig.3.23).
The main stages of fault growth, according to the stress-feedback mechanism, are
shown in Fig.3.24. During the initial stage of deformation, several isolated faults are
nucleated in the weaker parts of the crust (stage 1, Fig. 3.24a). As deformation
progresses (stage 2), displacements rates are enhanced on those faults that are optimally
oriented in stress increase zones (W, X, Y and Z, Fig. 3.24b). At later stages (stage 3),
strain localizes at some more optimally oriented faults that grow by linkage to form
larger structures (Y and Z, Fig.3.24c), while other faults (X and W) may become
inactive if they are located in stress drop zones.
In addition, fault growth and interactions are scale-dependent on the thickness of the
brittle layer within which the faults are confined (e.g., Cowie, 1998a; Soliva et al.,
2006). The vertical growth of large faults that span the brittle layer is restricted and
faults can only grow along strike to accommodate increasing strain (Ackermann and
Schlische, 1997). Ackermann et al. (2001) investigated the effect of the brittle layer’s
thickness in laboratory experiments and found that in thin models fracture saturation
was achieved more rapidly with increasing strain and exponential scaling emerged,
compared with thicker models where these properties were achieved with higher
amounts of total strain. In the ductile zone, where the mechanical resistance of the crust
is weaker than the upper brittle layer, deformation processes may be controlled by
aseismic viscous flow rather than frictional stick-slip failure (Cowie et al., 2013). The
effect of the brittle-ductile rheology on fault growth was investigated in the
experimental models of Sornette et al. (1993) and Davy et al. (1995). In these models,
deformation of the brittle-ductile system was represented as the uniaxial compression
of a brittle layer of dry sand superimposed on a ductile layer of silicon putties with
Newtonian viscosities. In the experimental model of Sornette et al. (1993), the
deformation localized along a few large faults that spanned the brittle layer reaching
the brittle-ductile transition with increasing strain. Davy et al. (1995) showed that
localization of strain depends on the strength ratio between the brittle-ductile layers in
continental regions. The strength ratio depends on the thickness and density of the
brittle layer and on the thickness, the viscosity and the imposed strain rate of the ductile
107
layer (Cowie, 1998a). In the experimental models of Davy et al. (1995), deformation
localized along a few large faults for large strength ratios between the brittle and ductile
layers (>5-10), while for smaller strength ratios, deformation was more distributed.
According to Cowie (1998a), the brittle-ductile strength ratio of the lithosphere varies
with heat flow and strain rates, so that different styles of fault network evolution are
expected in different regions.
In the Corinth Rift, although fault geometry at depth is not clear (Lambotte et al., 2014),
the seismogenic layer in the western zone is confined to a lower depth than the eastern
zone (Hatzfeld et al., 2000). In the west, earthquake activity is constrained in a zone
gently dipping to the north at depths of 8-11 km (Fig.3.25) (Rigo et al., 1996; Lambotte
et al., 2014). In an ongoing debate, this zone has been related to the brittle-ductile
transition in the crust (Hatzfeld et al., 2000) or to a low-angle fault or a detachment
zone that controls the kinematics and rheology in the western part of the Rift (Rigo et
al., 1996; Sorel et al., 2000) (Fig.3.25). Whether the brittle-ductile transition or a low-
angle detachment, this zone constrains the depth to which a fault can grow in the
western zone of the Rift. In synergy with stress interaction effects and in analogy to the
experiments of Ackermann et al. (2001), localization of strain and fracture saturation
can be achieved more rapidly as a function of increasing strain in this part of the Rift.
During the Late Quaternary, initially distributed extension in the Corinth Rift has
progressively localized into the narrow offshore zone and the Perachora Peninsula
(Roberts et al., 2009; Leeder et al., 2012; Ford et al., 2013) (Fig.3.6). Such localization
has also been observed in other extensional rifts such as the Timor Sea (Meyer et al.,
2002), the Gulf of Suez (Gawthorpe et al., 2003) and the North Sea (Cowie et al., 2005).
The mechanism of strain localization in continental rifts, although not fully understood,
has been attributed to crustal rheology, heat fluxes or changes in regional strain rates
(Cowie et al., 2005). In the broader region of the Corinth Rift there is no evidence that
such processes took place during the Quaternary. The results of the present analysis,
summarized in Fig.3.22, rather suggest that fault growth processes in the upper crust
control the fault network evolution and the localization of strain. In the eastern zone,
the lower amounts of strain during the last 2 Myr, the thicker brittle layer and the
108
Figure 3.25: Cross-section indicating the geometry and interactions of faults at depth
in the western zone of the Corinth Rift (MPF: Pirgaki-Mamousia Fault zone; EEF East
Eliki Fault; WCF: West Channel Fault; SEF: South Eratini Fault; NEF: North Eratini
Fault). In the inset, the location of the cross-section is shown and the locations of Ms >
5 earthquakes, after Ambraseys and Jackson (1990) and Bernard et al. (1997). Faults
have been projected with dips of 60° (dashed lines), down to the probable depth of the
brittle-ductile transition. The position of the low-angle detachment zone, proposed by
Sorel (2000) and Rigo et al. (1996), has also been projected (from Bell et al., 2008).
asymptotic power-law behavior of the fault-length distribution, suggest that the fault
network has not reached saturation and the activity is more diffuse. In the central and
western zones of the Rift, fault growth, due to the higher strain during the last 2 Myr,
led to fracture saturation, the suppression of fault interactions and exponential fault-
length scaling, and ultimately to the localization of strain in the narrow offshore zone
(Fig.3.6). Such mechanisms might be more pronounced in the western zone, where the
britlle-ductile transition depth is shallower than in the eastern part, leading more rapidly
to fracture saturation and exponential scaling. It further suggests that once fracture
saturation is achieved, the displacement rates increase for some faults and/or new faults
are nucleated to accommodate increasing strain. In support of the latter stage of
109
evolution, Poulimenos (2000) reports such an increase in the displacement rates of the
fault system in the SW part of the Rift, in the area south of Aigion (Fig.3.3). For the
same area, in agreement to the results of Poulimenos (2000), Ford et al. (2013) report
accelerations in the displacement rates of large faults during the period ~ 0.7 Myr –
present and further observe that once the critical fault-length of 20 - 25 km is achieved,
faults cease activity and activity migrates to the faults further north. In addition, the
1995 Ms6.2 Aigion earthquake and the two 2010 Mw5.1 Efpalion earthquakes that
occured in the western part of the Rift, are thought to have ruptured blind faults (Ganas
et al., 2013; Lambotte et al., 2014), giving support to the existence of young active
structures in the Rift that have not yet displaced the surface and have not been mapped.
This evolution pattern of the fault network in the distinct strain zones of the Rift is
consistent with the stress feedback mechanism proposed by Poulimenos (2000), Cowie
and Roberts (2001) and Roberts et al. (2009) to explain the slip rate variations in the
fault system during the Quaternary (~ 2 Myr – present).
110
Chapter 4
Earthquake-Size Distribution
4.1 Introduction
In Chapter 4 the earthquake-size distribution (ESD) in the Corinth Rift is studied. The
ESD describes the relative occurrence of small to large earthquakes and is typically
used in earthquake hazard assessments in order to define the expected seismicity rates,
based on the recorded past activity. In most cases the ESD has been found to follow the
empirical G-R scaling relation, which was described in § 2.3.2 (Eq.2.7 and Eq.2.8). An
alternative to the G-R scaling relation is the NESM formulation of the fragment-
asperity (F-A) model. The F-A model, based on the interaction between the fragments
and asperities that fill the space between the fault planes, can provide a physical model
for the observed ESD in a given region. The analytic derivation of the F-A model by
optimizing the non-additive entropy Sq was described in § 2.6.3.2 and in the present
chapter it is used to study the ESD in the Corinth Rift. The results are compared to the
G-R scaling relation and the obtained scaling functions are used to calculate the longer-
term expected seismicity rates in the Rift.
Chapter 4 Earthquake-Size Distribution
4.2 Earthquake activity in the Corinth Rift
Greece represents the most seismically active region in Europe (e.g., Tsapanos, 2008)
due to its location on the active tectonic plate-boundary, at the convergence of the
African and Eurasian lithospheric plates in the Eastern Mediterranean Zone (see § 3.2.1
and Fig.3.1). The earthquake activity in the region is more than 60 per cent of the
European seismicity, with maximum expected earthquake magnitudes up to Mw = 8.2
(Papazachos, 1990). The majority of the earthquake activity is concentrated along the
Hellenic Subduction Zone (HSZ), the Kephalonia Transform Fault (KT), the North
Aegean Trough (NAT) and the Corinth Rift (Fig.4.1 and Fig.3.1 for the major tectonic
features).
Figure 4.1: The 1964 – 2014 earthquake activity in Greece for Mw ≥ 4, according to
the NOA bulletins (see § 4.3 and § 4.4). The rectangle marks the Corinth Rift region.
112
The high earthquake activity in the Corinth Rift has been known since historic times,
when several large events caused extended catastrophes in ancient cities, such as Delfi,
Corinth and ancient Helike, which was submerged by an earthquake and a subsequent
tsunami in 373 BC (Papazachos and Papazachou, 2003). In the last 50 years the area
has suffered six earthquakes of magnitude Ms ≥ 6, the 1965 Eratini earthquake (Ms =
6.4), the 1970 Antikyra earthquake (Ms = 6.2), the 1981 Alkyonides earthquakes (Ms =
6.7; Ms = 6.4; Ms = 6.2) and the 1995 Aigion earthquake (Ms = 6.2). Fault plane
solutions for these events indicate almost pure normal faulting of an E-W general
direction and N-S extension (Fig.4.2) (Taymaz et al., 1991; Baker et al., 1997),
consistent with the tectonic characteristics of the area and the direction of extension
obtained from GPS data (see also § 3.2.3). In the west zone of the Rift, fault planes dip
to the north at shallow angles of 30°, while in the east zone the dips are steeper (45°-
50°) (Baker, et al., 1997; Hatzfeld et al., 2000). Historic and instrumental records for
the area indicate 29 events of magnitude M ≥ 6 since 1694 (Fig.4.2) (Ambraseys and
Jackson, 1997). Even though these events are not regularly spaced in time (Fig.4.2), the
data imply that an earthquake of M ≥ 6 occurs every ten years in the area. In addition,
the typical length of large faults in the Corinth Rift (of the order of 20 - 25 km) and the
lack of discontinuity between the different fault segments imply that the maximum
expected earthquake magnitude in the area is less than 7 (Roberts and Jackson, 1991).
This maximum threshold is in accordance with the maximum observed earthquakes that
hardly exceed magnitudes of 6.8 (Ambraseys and Jackson, 1997; Papazachos and
Papazachou, 2003).
Another characteristic pattern of the seismicity in the Rift is the frequent occurrence of
earthquake swarm sequences, which involve several small to moderate size events
occurring over a few days. Such earthquake swarms occurred in 1991 (Rigo et al.,
1996), 2001 (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010) and during 2003-2004 and 2006-2007
(Bourouis and Cornet, 2009). The last three sequences have been associated with fluid
diffusion at depth (Bourouis and Cornet, 2009; Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010), a
hypothesis that is further discussed in Chapter 6. The main characteristics of
microseismicity are similar to those of larger events (Bernard et al., 2006). The majority
of events are concentrated in the narrow offshore zone of the Gulf of Corinth (Fig. 4.7),
at depths ranging between 5-11 km in the west and 4-13 km in the east (Hatzfeld et al.,
2000; Lambotte et al., 2014). The computed focal mechanisms of micro-earthquakes
113
indicate E-W striking faults and N-S extension (Rigo et al., 1996; Hatzfeld et al., 2000;
Godano et al., 2014), in accordance with larger events and regional geodynamics.
Figure 4.2: Historic earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6 in the Corinth Rift since
1694 AD (after Ambraseys and Jackson, 1997), shown by stars. Instrumental
earthquakes of Ms > 6 are shown by black dots, along with their corresponding focal
mechanisms (after Taymaz et al., 1991; Baker et al., 1997; Bernard et al., 1997).
4.3 Seismic Networks and Earthquake Catalogues
The first seismograph in Greece was installed in Athens, in 1898 (Bath, 1983). About
six decades later, the first WWSSN (World Wide Seismograph Station Network) 3-
component (3-D) station began operating at the National Observatory of Athens (NOA)
in 1962, followed three years later by the installation of another four stations and of the
Wood-Anderson seismograph in Athens, which marked the estimation of the respective
local magnitude (ML) that has been used ever since (Bath, 1983; Chouliaras, 2009).
Since then, the seismic network operated by NOA has been continuously expanded and
upgraded (Fig.4.3), consisting nowadays of 45 permanent digital stations, equipped
114
with broadband, 3-D component seismometers (http://www.gein.noa.gr/en/general).

Since 1964, the bulletins of the Institute of Geodynamics of NOA have provided
information on earthquake activity in the area of Greece (34°-42° N and 19°-29° E) and
are used to compile the earthquake catalogues for the region
(http://www.gein.noa.gr/en/seismicity/earthquake-catalogs).
Figure 4.3: Fig. 1 from Mignan and Chouliaras (2014). 1964 – 2013 time series of a)
the number of seismic stations of the NOA network, b) the annual rate of events, c) a
proxy to the completeness magnitude Mc of the regional catalogue obtained by the
median-based analysis of the segment slope (MBASS) technique (see Mignan and
Chouliaras, 2014).
115
Other networks operating in Greece are those of the Seismological Laboratory of the
University of Athens (UOA), the Laboratory of Geophysics of the Aristotle University
of Thessaloniki (AUTH) and the Seismological Laboratory of the University of Patras
(UOP). In 2005 a national project was launched under the name “Hellenic Unified
Seismological Network” (HUSN) that intended to unify the NOA network with the
other three networks operate by the Greek Institutions. HUSN currently consists of
more than 125 stations and has substantially increased the detectability of earthquakes
in Greece, producing more accurate and detailed earthquake catalogues since the
beginning of 2008 (Fig.4.3) (Papanastassiou, 2010). In Fig.4.4 the more than 20 HUSN
stations that are operating in the Corinth Rift are shown.
Figure 4.4: Seismic stations of HUSN operating in the Corinth Rift.
The network’s performance was evaluated by D’Alessandro et al. (2011) and Mignan
and Chouliaras (2014). D’Alessandro et al. (2011) applied the Seismic Networks
Evaluation through Simulation (SNES) method to evaluate the detectability of the
network, the epicentral and hypocentral errors and the magnitude of completeness (Mc)
of the recorded events. Mc indicates the lower magnitude above which all earthquakes
116
Figure 4.5: Fig. 3 from Mignan and Chouliaras (2014). Spatial variations of Mc
according to the BMC method, for four periods of the regional earthquake catalogue
produced by NOA and HUSN (see Fig.4.3). The “observed” Mc corresponds to the
mean of Mc values obtained from 200 bootstrap frequency-magnitude distribution
samples. The predicted Mc corresponds to the default model of BMC, calibrated to the
Greek data. The estimated Mc according to the BMC method is the average of the
observed and the predicted, weighted according to their respective uncertainties (see
Mignan and Chouliaras, 2014).
117
are detected. The analysis showed that the area of the Corinth Rift is well covered by
the network, with Mc in the range of 1.6 – 2 (ML). The analysis also indicated that the
epicenter of an event with ML=2.5 can be estimated with errors of 3 km or less in central
Greece, while the errors in the hypocentral depth are generally higher than 4 km
(D’Alessandro et al., 2011). These results regarding Mc are in agreement with those of
Mignan and Chouliaras (2014) (Fig.4.5). The latter authors used the Bayesian
Magnitude of Completeness (BMC) method to estimate the spatial variations of Mc and
the results they obtained are shown in Fig.4.5 for the four main periods of the regional
earthquake catalogue of NOA and HUSN (Fig.4.3c). During the period 1964 – 2008,
the Mc in central Greece was approximately 3 – 3.5 (ML), while after the HUSN started
to operate Mc dropped below 2.5 (ML) (Fig.4.5). A software upgrade in 2011 further
improved the analysis of the recorded events and Mc dropped to 1.5 (ML) (Fig.4.3 and
4.5).
Figure 4.6: The CRL network, composed of 11 stations equipped with 2 HZ

seismometers (triangles in light green, orange or rose) and 9 stations equipped with
broadband seismometers recording continuously at 100 Hz (triangles in violet, dark
green or orange). CNRS (France) runs 14 stations (triangles in violet and rose),
University of Patras runs 4 stations (triangles in orange) and the University of Athens
2 stations (green triangles). Full circles show permanent GPS stations and stars the
location of strain and tilt-meters (from http://crlab.eu/).
118
In 2000 – 2001 the Corinth Rift Laboratory Network (CRLN) was developed in the
western zone of the Corinth Rift to complement the existing seismic stations of UOA
and UOP (Fig.4.6). The objective of this joint project was to provide a detailed
continuous monitoring of the earthquake activity in the western zone of the Rift and to
constrain the active faults at depth (Lyon-Caen et al., 2004). Initially, 12 short-period
seismic stations were installed in the area and in 2015 CRLN comprises more than 30
stations that include short-period and broadband seismometers, accelerometers, GPS
stations, strain-meters, tide-gauges, tilt-meters, water-levels in wells and meteo stations
(Fig.4.6) (http://crlab.eu/). CRL produces earthquake catalogues based on automatic
pickings that are available for 2001 – 2013 at http://crlab.eu/ (last accessed on May
2015).
4.4 Implementing the G-R and F-A models to earthquake data
4.4.1 Estimating the a and b values in the G-R scaling relation
For estimation of the a and b values of the G-R scaling relation (Eq.2.7) and of their
uncertainties the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) procedure is commonly
deployed in the literature (e.g., Aki, 1965; Utsu, 1966; Wiemer and Wyss, 1997;
Marzocchi and Sandri, 2003). MLE is preferred to the least squares technique, as the
latter can produce strong biases in the estimated b-value and its uncertainties (Shi and
Bolt, 1982; Sandri and Marzocchi, 2007). For a continuous distribution of magnitudes
M, the cumulative distribution of M according to the G-R scaling relation (Eq.2.7)
corresponds to the probability distribution function p(M):
 b M  M 0 
p(M )  b10 log e , (4.1)
where M0 is the minimum earthquake magnitude in the dataset and M0 << Mmax (Aki,
1965; Marzocchi and Sandri, 2003; De Santis et al., 2011). For Eq.4.1 the MLE of the
b-value yields (Aki, 1965):
log e
b , (4.2)
M  M0
119
where M is the mean value of all possible magnitudes in the dataset. The
corresponding uncertainty in the estimated b-value is (Aki, 1965):
b
b  , (4.3)
N
where N is the number of earthquakes. In practice, the magnitudes M are grouped into
some binning interval M that for instrumental records is usually M  0.1 . To
account for the use of finite binning intervals, Utsu (1966) suggested a slight
modification to the Eq.4.2 formula:
log e
b . (4.4)
M   M 0  M 2 
Furthermore, Shi and Bolt (1982) proposed an alternative estimation of the uncertainty
of the b-value:
M M
2
i
 b  2.30b 2 i 1
, (4.5)
N  N  1
which seems more reliable in the presence of possible temporal and/or spatial variations
of the b-value (Shi and Bolt, 1982; Marzocchi and Sandri, 2003). After the estimation
of the b-value from Eq.4.2 or Eq.4.4, the a-value (Eq.2.7) can be estimated from the
expression (De Santis et al., 2011):
a  log N  bM 0 (4.6)
and the associated uncertainty by the Gauss error propagation (De Santis et al., 2011):
a   M 0 b    bM 
2 2
. (4.7)
In the following, Eq.4.4 and Eq.4.5 are used to estimate the b-value and its uncertainty
and Eq.4.6 and Eq.4.7 the a-value and its uncertainty, respectively.
120
4.4.2 Estimating the aE and qE values in the fragment-asperity model
The derivation of the cumulative distribution function of earthquake magnitudes,

according to the fragment-asperity model and the NESM formulation, was described in
§ 2.6.3.2. The expression given in Eq.2.57 is used to study the ESD in the Corinth Rift.
This expression can be alternatively written as:
  1  qE  10M  
1    2 3  
N   M  2  qE 2  qE   E   .
log   log   (4.8)
N 1  qE   1  qE  10M 0  
1    2 3  
  2  qE   E  
The aE and qE values that best describe the cumulative distribution of earthquake
magnitudes N(>M) in a tectonic region can be estimated by fitting Eq.4.8 to the
observed distribution. The fitting procedure that is followed here is the Levenberg –
Marquardt (LM) nonlinear least-square method (Levenberg, 1944; Marquardt, 1963)
that is well-known for its efficiency in solving least-square problems for functions that
are not linear in their unknown parameters. The LM method uses an iterative procedure
to minimize the square of errors S(p) (or residuals) between the observed data y(xi) and
the nonlinear model f(xi, p), where p is the vector of unknown parameters. Given a set
of initial values for p, the unknown parameters are re-estimated at each step of the
iterative procedure, till the convergence to the minimum of the following relation is
achieved (e.g., Seber and Wild, 2003; Pujol, 2007).
N
S (p)    y( xi )  f ( xi , p)
2
(4.9)
i 1
The LM method has previously been used to estimate the aE and qE values in various
tectonic regions with quite stable results (Telesca and Chen, 2010; Telesca, 2010a;
2010b; Matcharashvili et al., 2011; Papadakis et al., 2013; Vallianatos et al., 2013). The
stability of the LM method and the sensitivity of the estimated aE and qE values to the
initial a0 and q0 guesses were further tested by Telesca and Chen (2010) and Telesca
(2010b). Providing reasonable initial estimates for q0 and a0 in the intervals [1 2] and
[10-3 1012] respectively, which include all the estimated values in the literature (Table
2.2), the aE and qE values returned by the LM method appear quite stable (Telesca and
Chen, 2010; Telesca, 2010b). An alternative approach for estimating the aE and qE
121
values, which is based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method, was
provided by Telesca (2012).
In the following analysis, the LM method is implemented on the data by using the nlinfit
function in Matlab®. Given the set [a0 q0] of initial guesses for the aE and qE values, the
nlinfit function returns the vector p of the estimated parameters that best fit the observed
data, as well as the residuals and the Jacobian matrix that are further used to estimate
the 95% confidence intervals of the estimated parameters. The Matlab® script for fitting
Eq.4.8 to the cumulative distribution of earthquake magnitudes according to the LM
method is provided in Appendix C.
4.5 Analysis of the earthquake-size distribution
4.5.1 Dataset
In earthquake hazard assessments and in order to reliably estimate the expected

seismicity rates in a region, the use of homogeneous earthquake catalogues is quite
important. Earthquake catalogues are produced by seismic networks that frequently use
different seismograph calibrations or different magnitude scales to define the size of an
event. In addition, network expansions and upgrades may alter the detectability of small
size earthquakes and consequently the magnitude of completeness of the catalogue
(Fig.4.3 for the NOA network). These heterogeneities can produce artifacts and
appropriate calibrations are needed in order to achieve homogeneity. For defining the
long-term activity, catalogues that cover longer periods are more adequate, although
for instrumental seismicity these catalogues hardly exceed the period of 40 to 50 years.
The benefit to use such datasets is that they are more representative of the long-term
seismicity and more reliable estimates can be made. On the other hand, the essential
selection of a high cut-off magnitude in order to ensure completeness of the reported
seismicity has a cost on small size events and consequently to the total number of
available data.
122
Figure 4.7: Seismicity map for the 1967 – 2014 shallow earthquakes (depth ≤ 30 km)
in the Corinth Rift, according to the NOA bulletins.
In the analysis of ESD in the Corinth Rift, the 50-years NOA earthquake catalogue is
considered more representative of the long-term activity and is preferred to the 7-years
HUSN or the 13-years CRL catalogues. The dataset comprises the 1967 – 2014
earthquake activity as it is reported in the bulletins of NOA19. The year of 1967 was
chosen as the initiation point of the dataset, as Mc becomes more stable at that time,
with almost similar values for 1967 – 2007 (Fig.4.3 and Fig.4.5). For that period (up to
November 2007), the local magnitudes (ML) reported by NOA are estimated from the
maximum trace amplitudes of the two horizontal components of the Wood-Anderson
(WA) seismograph installed in Athens and are expected to be homogeneous
(Roumelioti et al., 2010). After November 2007, the ML estimation is based on synthetic
WA seismograms.
To homogenize the reported magnitudes in the dataset, local magnitudes (ML) are
converted to moment magnitudes (Mw). The Mw scale (Hanks and Kanamori, 1979) is
19Available at http://www.gein.noa.gr/en/seismicity/earthquake-catalogs (last accessed on

April 2015).
123
based on the seismic moment M0 rather than the amplitude of a particular seismic phase
and in many cases is preferred to the other magnitude scales due to its uniformity over
all magnitude ranges and the advantage of non-saturation for large magnitudes (Lay
and Wallace, 1995). The relation between Mw and the other magnitude scales has been
accurately defined and for a specific magnitude range (ML ≤ 6.5) Mw = ML (Heaton et
al., 1986). The latter relation between Mw and ML is theoretically expected for the NOA
catalogue and is the one that is found for the reported ML after 2007 and the use of
synthetic WA seismograms (Roumelioti et al., 2010; Scordilis et al., 2013). However,
prior to this period, systematic biases in the estimation of ML have been reported and
have been attributed to the calibration of the WA seismograph in Athens (Papazachos
et al., 1997; Margaris and Papazachos, 1999). These biases are almost constant during
1964 – 2007 and compared to Mw cause the underestimation of ML by 0.3 – 0.6
magnitude units (Kiratzi and Papazachos, 1984; Papazachos et al., 1997; Margaris and
Papazachos, 1999; Papazachos et al., 2002). Furthermore, Roumelioti et al. (2010) used
the source parameters of 576 earthquakes in Greece to define the relation between Mw
and ML reported by NOA and reached the simple relation:
MW  M L  0.29 . (4.10)
The latter relation is used to estimate Mw from ML for the 1967 – 2007 period (up to the
end of November 2007) and from December 2007 Mw is considered equal to ML as
reported in the NOA bulletins.
The analyzed dataset corresponds to 30616 shallow earthquakes (depth ≤ 30 km) that
occurred in the Rift, in the area shown in Fig.4.7. According to Mignan and Chouliaras
(2014), the magnitude of completeness Mc for the considered period in the Corinth Rift
is 3.5 (ML) (Fig.4.5). The value of Mc changes to 3.8 if the moment magnitudes Mw are
considered, according to the relation between ML and Mw given in Eq.4.10. The
cumulative number of events for the entire dataset and for Mw ≥ 3.8 is shown in Fig.4.8a
and Fig.4.8b respectively. The number of recorded events increased substantially after
2008 and the operation of HUSN that increased the detectability of smaller size events
(Fig.4.8a). If only the events with Mw ≥ 3.8 are considered, then the cumulative number
increases at almost constant rates, apart from the periods where large events occurred
in the area (Fig.4.8b). Such events are followed by aftershock sequences and can be
seen in Fig.4.9, where the earthquake magnitude rate is plotted in time. The larger
124
events in the dataset are the 1981 Alkyonides earthquakes, which were followed by a
large number of moderate-size aftershocks (Fig.4.9). This causes the abrupt increase of
the cumulative number of events during 1981 (Fig.4.8b).
a)
b)
Figure 4.8: Cumulative number of events for 1967 – 2014, a) for the entire and the
declustered dataset, b) for Mw ≥ 3.8.
125
6.5
5.5
Magnitude
4.5
3.5
3
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Time
Figure 4.9: Rates of earthquake magnitudes (Mw) over time for 1967 – 2014.
In addition, the seismic moment Mo of an event can be estimated from Mw according to

the relation (Hanks and Kanamori, 1979):
log M 0  1.5M w  16.1 . (4.11)
According to the latter relation, the released seismic moment (Mo) of an earthquake of
Mw = 6 is almost 32 times larger than that of an earthquake of Mw = 5. By estimating
Mo from Eq.4.11 and plotting the cumulative seismic moment release in the Rift for Mw
≥ 3.8, it is seen that a great proportion of the seismic energy was released during the
1981 Alkyonides earthquakes (Fig.4.10).
4.5.2 Seismicity Declustering
The declustering of earthquake catalogues is widely used in earthquake hazard

assessments and earthquake prediction models. The aim of the declustering analysis is
to separate the background activity in a region from the triggered earthquakes (e.g.,
aftershocks). The background activity consists of independent earthquakes caused by
126
the tectonic loading of faults, whereas triggered earthquakes depend on mechanical

processes, such as static or dynamic stress changes, or seismically-activated fluid flows
that are controlled by previous earthquakes (van Stiphout et al., 2012). By removing
the clusters of triggered (dependent) earthquakes from an earthquake catalogue, the
remaining independent earthquakes, for large enough tectonic regions, are expected to
be homogeneous in time, i.e., to follow a stationary Poisson process (§ 2.3.4) (van
Stiphout et al., 2012).
Figure 4.10: Cumulative seismic moment (in dyn∙cm) over time.
Aftershocks are identified on the basis of their spatio-temporal proximity to larger

events and by the fact that they substantially increase the seismicity rate in a region in
comparison with the averaged long-term seismicity rate (e.g., Fig.4.8b). A simple way
of distinguishing between mainshocks and aftershocks is the window method (Gardner
and Knopoff, 1974). According to this method, for each earthquake with magnitude M
in the catalogue, the subsequent events are considered as aftershocks if they occur
within a specified time interval T(M) and a distance interval L(M) (van Stiphout et al.,
2012). The time-space windows are thus dependent on the magnitude of the largest
event in a sequence (Fig.B.1, Appendix B). Other declustering methods (reviewed in
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van Stiphout et al., 2012) consider spatio-temporal interaction zones (Reasenberg,

1985) or stochastic models, such as the ETAS model (Zhuang et al., 2002).
The window method (Gardner and Knopoff, 1974) is used to decluster the earthquake
dataset in the Corinth Rift and to separate the background activity from aftershocks.
The window parameter settings proposed by Uhrhammer (1986) were further used to
define the space-time intervals, which read as:
L(M )  e1.0240.804 M [km], T (M )  e2.871.235M [days] (4.12)
The latter space-time intervals, in comparison with the parameter settings proposed by
Gardner and Knopoff (1974), provide more conservative estimations regarding the
expansion of the aftershock zone in time and space (for M < 6.4) (see Fig.B.1 in
Appendix B) and may be considered more representative for the size of the fault
segments in the Corinth Rift. In addition, the results of the declustering analysis were
further compared with those of the method proposed by Reasenberg (1985), which
yielded similar results regarding the number of earthquake clusters and the number of
events that are considered as mainshocks.
The ZMAP toolbox, which includes a set of scripts written in Matlab® (Wiemer, 2001),
was used to perform the declustering analysis. According to the space-time intervals
defined in Eq.4.12, a number of 12657 events were identified as aftershocks (41.34%
of the dataset). The remaining (declustered) dataset has 17959 events that are
considered as the background activity in the almost 50-years earthquake dataset. The
cumulative number of events for the declustered dataset and for the one with Mw ≥ 3.8
is shown in Fig.4.8a and Fig.4.8b respectively. The depletion of aftershocks from the
dataset results in a smoother and almost constant rate of events over time in the dataset
(Fig.4.8b).
4.5.3 Earthquake-size distribution in the Corinth Rift
The ESD in the Corinth Rift is studied in terms of the cumulative frequency –
magnitude distribution N(>M) that represents the cumulative number of events with
magnitudes greater than M. In Fig.4.11 N(>M) for 1967 – 2014 (according to the dataset
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described previously) is shown, along with the frequency of the observed magnitudes,
counted in equal bins (ΔΜ) of 0.1 magnitude units. In the latter, a roll-off in the
frequencies of magnitudes below 3.4 appears due to the limited detectability of the
network during 1967 – 2007. The large number of small size events recorded after 2007
causes the observed frequencies to increase at magnitudes 1 – 2 and fall again for even
smaller magnitudes. For larger magnitudes (M ≥ 3.4), an almost linear relation between
N(>M) and M appears that corresponds to the G-R scaling regime (Eq.2.7).
5
10
4
10
3
10
N (>M)
b = 1.18
2
10
1
10
0
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Magnitude
Figure 4.11: Cumulative frequency – magnitude distribution (squares) and the non-
cumulative (incremental) frequency – magnitude distribution (triangles) on a log-linear
scale. The solid line represents the G-R scaling relation for b = 1.18 and a = 7.39.
The a and b values of the G-R scaling relation and their corresponding uncertainties are
estimated according to the MLE method (§ 4.5.1) and Eq.4.4 – Eq.4.7 respectively. The
appropriate selection of the minimum magnitude M0 in the calculations is crucial, as it
can produce biases in the estimated values. The effect of M0 on the estimated b values
is shown in Fig.4.12, where strong variations appear for M0 ≤ 3.7 due to the
incompleteness of the dataset in events smaller than this magnitude. For M0 = 3.8, the
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estimations yield the values of b = 1.18 ±0.043 and a = 7.39 ±0.118. The G-R scaling
relation for these values provides a good fit to the observed N(>M) for moderate and
large size events (Fig.4.11).
Figure 4.12: The estimated b-values and their uncertainties as a function of the
minimum magnitude M0 for the considered dataset.
The corresponding fit of the fragment – asperity model (Eq.4.8) to the observed N(>M)
is shown in Fig.4.13 for various values of M0. In Fig.4.13 the data and the model are
presented on semi-log axes and in the non-normalized form of Eq.4.8, in order to be
consistent with Fig.4.11 and the G-R fit to the data. The good agreement between the
F-A model and the data can be seen in Fig.4.13. Regardless of the initial selection of
M0, the model provides almost identical results and a good fit to the observed
distribution, particularly for moderate and large size events. For M0 = 3.8 the non-linear
least-square algorithm according to the LM method returns the values of qE = 1.477
±0.013 and aE = 0.001. The range of the estimated qE-values and their corresponding
uncertainties are shown in Fig.4.14 as a function of M0. The estimated qE-values vary
between 1.464 ±0.012 (for M0 = 3.3) and 1.486 ±0.024 (for M0 = 4.5). The small
variations in the second decimal degree of the order of ≈0.02-0.05 denote the stability
of qE, regardless of the initial selection of M0. Similar results, regarding the variations
130
of qE with M0, have been found by Telesca (2010c) in the analysis of the 2009 L’Aquila
seismicity. The stability of qE with M0 is quite important in earthquake hazard
assessments, as reliable estimates of qE can be made even in cases where the catalogue
presents possible uncertainties in the magnitude of completeness and there are potential
variations of Mc in time and space. This is the main advantage of the F-A model over
the G-R scaling relation, which appears quite sensitive to the initial selection of M0.
The other advantage is that the model can describe even smaller size events, in the part
of the distribution where the roll-off appears and the distribution starts to deviate from
the G-R scaling regime (Silva et al., 2006; Vallianatos et al., 2013).
To check the relevant performance of the F-A model and the G-R scaling relation for
fitting the data, the misfit is estimated as a function of M0. The misfit is calculated as
the averages of the absolute values of the residuals y  y fit between the observations
(y) and the predicted values (yfit) (Telesca, 2011). The results of this analysis are shown
in Fig.4.15 for the M0 range of 0.1 – 4.5. As expected, for both the F-A model and the
G-R scaling relation the misfits decrease with M0, as y also decreases and less data are
included in the calculations. For small values of M0, the G-R scaling relation does not
provide a good fit to the data and the misfit is generally larger. For values of M0 ≥ 3.3,
the G-R scaling relation presents lower misfits and seems to perform slightly better than
the F-A model (Fig.4.15). This result can be realized by the qualitative inspection of
Fig.4.11 and Fig.4.13, in which the two models are fitted to the data. The G-R scaling
relation provides a better fit at magnitude ranges of 3.8 – 5.4, where y is larger and
approximates a straight line (Fig.4.11), resulting in smaller misfits. However, for large
size events (M ≥ 5.6), where y is smaller, the F-A model better describes the
observations (Fig.4.13), an effect that is not captured in the misfit.
In addition, the G-R scaling relation and the F-A model were fitted to the declustered
dataset, where the aftershocks have been removed. For the G-R scaling relation and for
M0 = 3.8, the estimations yield the values of b = 1.16 ±0.06 and a = 7.02 ±0.116
(Fig.B.2), whereas for the F-A model the values of qE = 1.48 ±0.02 and aE = 0.001
(Fig.B.3), which are similar to the parameter values found for the entire dataset. The
corresponding figures are provided in Appendix B.
131
Figure 4.13: The cumulative frequency – magnitude distribution and the corresponding
fits according to the F-A model for various values of the minimum magnitude M0.
Figure 4.14: The estimated qE values (squares) and their uncertainties (95% confidence
intervals presented as errorbars) as a function of the minimum magnitude M0.
132
Figure 4.15: The misfits between the observed distribution and the G-R scaling relation
(triangles) and the fragment – asperity (F-A) model (circles), for various values of M0.
4.5.4 Expected seismicity rates
The importance of the ESD originates from the fact that it can directly be used in
probabilistic earthquake hazard assessments by estimating the expected seismicity rates
in a region. In terms of the probability P(>M) of an earthquake of magnitude greater
than M to occur in the considered period, the G-R scaling relation can be rewritten as:
P( M )  10abM dT , (4.13)
where dT is the observation period. If the F-A model is considered instead, then the
probability P(>M) can be calculated from Eq.2.57 as:
2  qE
  1  qE  10M   1 qE
 1   
  2  qE  aE2 3  
P( M )  N  dT , (4.14)
  1  qE  10M 0  
1    2 3  
  2  qE  aE  
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where N is the number of the observed earthquakes with M ≥ M0 in the considered

period dT and aE and qE the estimated parameter values of the F-A model.
The annual probability of an earthquake of magnitude M occurring in the region can be

estimated by using Eq.4.13 or Eq.4.14. Substituting into Eq.4.13 the a and b values of
a = 7.39 and b = 1.18 ±0.043 found previously for the 1967 – 2014 (dT = 47 years)
earthquake activity in the Corinth Rift for M0 ≥ 3.8, we estimate that annually 0.66
±0.38 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or 0.044 ±0.018 earthquakes of magnitude 6 can be
expected. From Eq.4.14 and for the values of M0 = 3.8, N = 802 events, qE = 1.477
±0.013 and aE = 0.001, the annual probability of an M = 5 earthquake becomes 0.82
±0.14 and of an M = 6 earthquake 0.065 ±0.022. The annual probability of earthquakes
in the magnitude range 5 – 7 according to the two models is shown in Fig.4.16.
Figure 4.16: The annual probability of an earthquake of magnitude M occurring in the

Corinth Rift, according to the G-R scaling relation and the F-A model (solid lines) and
their corresponding uncertainties (dotted lines).
134
The recurrence time of an earthquake of magnitude M can be estimated from Eq.4.13

or Eq.4.14 as 1 P( M ) . Thus, the recurrence time of an M = 5 earthquake according
to the G-R scaling relation is 1.52 years, of an M = 6 earthquake 23 years and of an M
= 6.8 earthquake 202 years (Fig.4.17). The F-A model predicts the recurrence times of
1.22 ±0.18 years for an M = 5 earthquake, 15.3 ±3.8 years for an M = 6 earthquake and
115.5 ±36.9 years for an M = 6.8 earthquake (Fig.4.17). Comparing these results with
the recurrence time of 11 years estimated by the M > 6 earthquakes since 1694 AD
(Fig.4.2), it is seen that the G-R scaling relation underestimates the expected rates of M
= 6 events, while the rate estimated by the F-A model for M = 6 earthquakes is almost
similar to the 320 years rate.
Figure 4.17: The recurrence time in years of an earthquake of magnitude M in the

Corinth Rift, according to the G-R scaling relation and the F-A model (solid lines) and
their corresponding uncertainties (dotted lines).
135
Overall, the F-A model can be used to reliably estimate the expected seismicity rates in
the Corinth Rift. However, the expected rates are not equally spaced in time and
temporal clusters of large events may occur, like the 1981 Alkyonides earthquakes.
Large events can be followed by long periods of relative quiescence, such as the current
20 year period since the last major event in the Rift in 1995; the Aigion earthquake.
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Chapter 5
Temporal Properties of Seismicity and the

Inter-event Time Distribution
5.1 Introduction
Earthquake time series refer to the time of occurrence of earthquake events marked by
their magnitude and are widely studied in order to gain insights into the physical
mechanism of seismogenesis and to predict future activity based on past events. These
two objectives are approximated by various scaling relations and models that are used
to understand the temporal properties of seismicity and to efficiently forecast future
events. The standard temporal models of seismicity were reviewed in § 2.3.3 and vary
between complete randomness (Poisson models), semi-randomness, in which
Poissonian background activity is interspersed by correlated aftershock sequences (e.g.,
ETAS model, § 2.3.4) and models indicating correlated seismicity at all timescales
(e.g., Livina et al., 2005; Lennartz et al., 2008). All these models refer to a probability
distribution function that describes the structure of the earthquake time series and is
further used to estimate the recurrence rates of seismicity.
The probability distribution function presents only a first-order approximation to the

temporal properties of seismicity and multifractal approaches are essential to
Chapter 5 Temporal Properties of Seismicity and the Inter-event Time Distribution
investigate the local fluctuations (see § 2.3.3). Multifractal analysis has been used in
various studies as a second-order approximation to the temporal structure of seismicity,
in order to study the range of correlations and the degree of heterogeneous clustering
(e.g., Geilikman et al., 1990; Godano et al., 1997; Telesca and Lappena, 2006). These
two approximations, the probability distribution function and multifractal analysis, are
used in the present Chapter to study the temporal structure of seismicity in the Corinth
Rift.
The present Chapter is based on the published articles: “Michas, G., Vallianatos, F.,
and Sammonds, P. (2013), Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the
earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece), Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 20,
713–724” and “Michas, G., Sammonds, P., and Vallianatos, F., (2015). Dynamic
multifractality in earthquake time series: Insights from the Corinth rift, Greece. Pure
and Applied Geophysics, 172, 1909-1921”. In Michas et al. (2013), we studied the
probability distribution function of the earthquake time series and the range of temporal
correlations in the West Corinth Rift for 2001 – 2008. In the present Chapter, the
analysis is extended to include the 2001 – 2013 and the 2008 – 2013 earthquake
activity in the western part and the entire Corinth Rift respectively. Likewise, the
multifractal analysis, which was performed for the 2008 – 2013 earthquake activity in
the Corinth Rift in Michas et al. (2015), is here applied to both datasets.
5.2 Datasets
The earthquake time series in the Corinth Rift are studied in terms of the inter-event
times (or waiting times) that represent the time intervals between successive earthquake
events. If ti is the time of occurrence of the ith event, then inter-event times τ are defined
as τi = ti+1 – ti , with i = 1, 2,...,N-1 with N being the total number of events. To study
the probability distribution of inter-event times p(τ) and the multifractal structure of the
inter-event time series τi, a sufficient number of events is required. In Chapter 4, the
1967 – 2014 NOA earthquake catalogue was considered as the appropriate one to use,
in order to study the long-term earthquake size distribution in the Corinth Rift and to
estimate the recurrence times of large earthquakes. This catalogue has 802 events for
Mw ≥ 3.8 that was considered as the lowest magnitude for which the catalogue is
138
complete. The analysis is here performed for the 2008 – 2013 earthquake activity in the
Rift, according to the HUSN catalogue and for the 2001 – 2013 earthquake activity in
the West Corinth Rift, according to the CRLN catalogue. These two catalogues are
complete for lower earthquake magnitudes (see § 4.3) and have several thousands of
events, thus producing more reliable results about the temporal structure of seismicity.
5.2.1 The HUSN catalogue
The “Hellenic Unified Seismological Network” (HUSN) has been operating since 2008
and has significantly increased the detectability of smaller size earthquakes in Greece
(see § 4.3). The HUSN stations that are operating in the area of the Corinth Rift are
shown in Fig.4.4. The magnitude of completeness Mc of the catalogues produced by
HUSN (available at http://bbnet.gein.noa.gr/HL/) is approximately Mc = 2 for central
Greece and drops down to Mc = 1.5 after 2011 (Fig. 4.5).
In Fig.5.1 the 2008 – 2013 crustal (depth ≤ 30 km) earthquake activity in the Corinth
Rift is shown. For ML ≥ 2 the catalogue has 8320 events, with the majority of
earthquakes occurring in the west part of the Rift and within the narrow zone of the
Gulf of Corinth (Fig.5.1) that is currently experiencing higher geodetic extension rates
(§ 3.2.3.1 and Fig.3.4b). Two other spatial clusters can be recognized in the central
offshore part and in the northeastern end of the Rift (Fig.5.1). The spatial distribution
of events is similar to the 1967 – 2014 spatial distribution of events in the Rift that is
shown in Fig.4.7, indicating consistency in the spatial patterns of seismicity over the
last 50 years. By removing the aftershocks from the dataset using the declustering
technique described in § 4.5.2, a total number of 4074 events remains that can be
considered as the background activity during this period.
In Fig.5.2 the seismicity rate and the magnitude rate per day are shown for 2008 -2013.
The largest earthquakes during this period are the two 2010 Mw5.1 Efpalion earthquakes
(Karakostas et al., 2012; Ganas et al., 2013), which are highlighted with red in the map
of Fig.5.1. After the occurrence of the first event on January 18, 2010 a sudden increase
in the seismicity rate occurs (Fig.5.2b) due to the production of numerous aftershocks.
The seismicity rate continues to fluctuate till the beginning of 2011, where a period of
low earthquake activity and a rather constant seismicity rate per day initiates in the Rift
139
(Fig.5.2b). The period of low seismicity rate lasts for more than two years and is
interrupted in mid-2013 by two earthquake swarms that occurred during 22/5/13–
26/6/13, both of which lasted approximately two weeks. The first one occurred near
Aigion (Kapetanidis et al., 2015) and the second one at the northeastern end of the Rift,
near Kapareli.
Figure 5.1: The 2008–2013 earthquake activity in the Corinth rift for ML ≥ 2. Solid
black lines represent major faults in the broader area. The inset map shows the main
tectonic features in the broader area of Greece (SHSZ - South Hellenic Subduction
Zone, NHSZ - North Hellenic Subduction Zone, KT - Kephalonia Transform Fault).
The rectangle marks the area of study (from Michas et al., 2015).
The inter-event time series τi for 2008 – 2013 and for ML ≥ 2 is shown in Fig. 5.3. The
series presents high fluctuations and varies over almost 6 orders of magnitude (Fig.5.3).
The mean inter-event time of the series,    t N  t1   N  1 , is   0.2617 days. In
terms of the mean seismicity rate per day R   1 , the latter value of  indicates a
mean value of R  3.82 earthquakes per day (for ML ≥ 2) in the Rift.
140
5.5
4.5
Magnitude
3.5
2.5
2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Time
a)
b)
Figure 5.2: a) Magnitude (ML) rate per day and b) seismicity rate per day and the
cumulative number of events for the entire (solid line) and the declustered (dashed line)
dataset, for the 2008 – 2013 earthquake activity (ML ≥ 2) in the Rift according to the
HUSN catalogue. The double arrow indicates the time period of stationary activity in
the Rift, where the mean seismicity rate is approximately constant.
141
Figure 5.3: The inter-event time series τi (in days) versus their index number i on semi-
log axes, for the 2008 – 2013 earthquake activity in the Rift (ML ≥ 2).
5.2.2 The CRLN catalogue
The other catalogue that is further used in the analysis is the CRLN catalogue that
reports the earthquake activity in the western part of the Corinth Rift (Fig.4.6) for 2001
– 2013 (§ 4.3). The CRLN catalogue includes more than 100000 events for the 13 years
period and provides a detailed dataset for the small size earthquakes in the currently
more active western part of the Rift. The magnitude of completeness Mc of the
catalogue was estimated by Pacchiani (2006) to be Mc = 1.4. The spatial distribution of
crustal seismicity (depth ≤ 30 km) for M ≥ 1.4, according to the CRLN catalogue, is
shown in Fig.5.4. In its great majority, the earthquake activity is concentrated in a
narrow 61 km x 55 km zone, highlighted with the rectangle in Fig.5.4 (area between
38.1 – 38.6° N and 21.7 – 22.4° E). For M ≥ 1.4, the selected dataset has 36510 events.
By declustering the catalogue using the window method described in § 4.5.2 and then
removing the afterhocks, a total number of 23610 events remains that can be considered
as the background activity.
142
Figure 5.4: Spatial distribution of seismicity (depth ≤ 30 km; M ≥ 1.4) in the West
Corinth Rift according to the CRLN catalogue. The rectangle marks the selected
earthquakes that are further used in the analysis.
The magnitude rate and the seismicity rate per day are shown in Fig.5.5. The largest
earthquake in the dataset is the 2010 M = 4.65 Efpalion earthquake (Fig.5.5a). The
magnitude for this event given by CRLN is 0.45 magnitude units less than the one
reported by HUSN (Mw5.1), indicating that the magnitudes in the CRLN catalogue
might be underestimated. After the occurrence of the Efpalion earthquakes, the
seismicity rate increases substantially, reaching almost 700 events per day (for M ≥ 1.4)
(Fig.5.5b). Other increases in the seismicity rate are associated with the 2001 Agios
Ioannis earthquake swarm (Pachianni and Lyon-Caen, 2010), the 2007 earthquake
swarm, which occurred in the offshore western part of the Rift (Bourouis and Cornet,
143
2009) and the mid-2013 Aigion earthquake swarm (Kapetanidis et al., 2015), also
reported in the HUSN catalogue.
4.5
3.5
Magnitude
2.5
1.5
1
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Time
a)
b)
Figure 5.5: a) Magnitude rate per day and b) seismicity rate per day and the cumulative
number of events for the entire (solid line) and the declustered (dashed line) dataset, for
the 2001 – 2013 earthquake activity (M ≥ 1.4) in the West Corinth Rift, according to
the CRLN catalogue. The double arrows indicate stationary periods, where the
seismicity rate is approximately constant.
144
The inter-event time series τi for the CRLN dataset is shown in Fig.5.6. As for the
HUSN dataset (Fig.5.3), the series presents high fluctuations and varies over almost
eight orders of magnitude. The mean inter-event time is   0.13 days and the mean
seismicity rate is R  7.7 earthquakes per day (M ≥ 1.4).
Figure 5.6: The inter-event time series τi (in days) versus their index number i on semi-
log axes, for the 2001 – 2013 earthquake activity in the western part of the Rift (M ≥
1.4).
5.3 The Inter-event Times Distribution
5.3.1 Inter-event Times Histograms
The histogram of inter-event times τ is constructed to study their probability distribution

p(τ) and structure. The initial choices that are made in the construction of the histogram,
such as linear versus logarithmic bin widths on the x-axis, and linear or logarithmic
scaling on the y-axis, can result in entirely different representations of the same dataset
(Naylor et al., 2010). The appropriate representation is a key part of the analysis and is
crucial for understanding the structure of the series. Since a wide range of scales is
involved in the inter-event time series (Fig.5.3 and Fig.5.6), the representation on
145
double logarithmic axes is preferred. This type of representation has also the advantage
of the simple identification of power-law regimes that plot as straight lines in double
logarithmic axes. In this case logarithmic binning is more straightforward as it plots
uniformly over the logarithmic space. Another representation that in many studies is
preferred (e.g., Corral, 2003; Hainzl et al., 2006; Touati et al., 2009) is to plot the
probability density function by counting the number of τ that fall into each
logarithmically spaced bin and then normalize this number by dividing it by the bin
width, in order to be proportional to the probability of occupation of that bin (Naylor et
al., 2010). To obtain the probability density of the series, the counts are further divided
by the total number of counts so that the probabilities of occupation sum to one.
The effect of using different representations for the same dataset is shown in Fig.5.7,
where the histogram of inter-event times τ for the HUSN dataset is plotted. Inter-event
times are shown in seconds and for τ ≥ 60 sec. For τ lower than this value, the dataset
is expected to be incomplete due to overlapping of the successive events in the
seismograms (Bak et al., 2002; Corral, 2003). This creates a shadow effect that hinders
the detection of events that follow at short times. Such events represent less than 2% of
the total number of events in the dataset and their exclusion does not alter the results of
the analysis. In the first case (Fig.5.7a) the frequency of the series is counted into 50
linear bins that uniformly cover the range of τ values and plotted on linear axes. A large
spike in the first bin is observed that decays rapidly for larger τ. From this graph we
cannot understand much about the structure of the series, apart from the information
that most inter-event times belong to the interval 60 - 2∙104 seconds. This image is
slightly improved by plotting the frequencies on log-log axes (Fig.5.7b). In this case
the form of the decay can better be seen, which approximates a straight line and power-
law scaling with exponent -1.6 up to 105 seconds (Fig.5.7b). For larger τ the data are
scattered and their structure is obscured. In the next graph (Fig.5.7c) the data are
counted into 50 logarithmic bins and plotted on log-log axes. The logarithmic binning
of the data results in a uniform representation over the logarithmic space and the
structure of the series over the entire range of values is better seen. In this case, the
frequency of short and intermediate τ is ascending as a straight line and a power-law
with exponent 0.39 up to ~104 sec, where the maximum frequency is observed, and
then is decaying rapidly for τ > 105 sec (Fig.5.7c). The probability density of the series
on log-log axes is shown in the next graph (Fig.5.7d). In this case the frequency is
146
normalized to the bin width and the total count. The power-law regime (straight line)
for short and intermediate τ is clearly observed up to ~104 sec. The power-law regime
presents the exponent of 0.56, one unit lower than the exponent in the histogram of
frequencies of Fig.5.7b (Bonnett et al., 2001). For larger τ the decay is smoother than
Fig.5.7c and approximates another power-law in the tail of the distribution. The last
two representations (Fig.5.7c, d) provide a better description of the structure of the
series and are the ones that are further studied.
Figure 5.7: The histogram of inter-event times τ for the HUSN dataset, in a) linear bin
widths and linear axes, b) linear bin widths and log-log axes, c) logarithmic bin widths
on log-log axes, d) logarithmic bin widths on log-log axes, with each frequency
normalized by the bin width and for total sum of frequencies equal to one.
The histogram and the probability density of inter-event times τ according to the CRLN
dataset are shown in Fig.5.8a and Fig.5.8b respectively. In both graphs the power-law
147
scaling in short and intermediate τ, in the range of 60 – 104 sec, is apparent. For larger
τ (> 105 sec), another power-law regime appears.
Figure 5.8: The histogram of inter-event times τ for the CRLN dataset, in a) logarithmic
bin widths on log-log axes, b) logarithmic bin widths on log-log axes, with each
frequency normalized by the bin width and for total sum of frequencies equal to one.
The probability density is further studied for the rescaled inter-event times T. In this
case, τ scales to the mean seismic rate as T  R  , or equivalently to the mean inter-
event time as T    . The seismic rate acts as a weighting factor, as a higher rate in
a given region corresponds to a higher number of earthquakes that are produced and
contribute to the distribution (Corral, 2003). By rescaling τ with R, it has been shown
that the probability densities, for various earthquake catalogues, threshold magnitudes
and spatial scales, fall onto a unique curve (Corral, 2004; see the discussion in § 2.3.3).
For stationary periods, where the seismic rate does not fluctuate, this curve
approximates the gamma distribution (Corral, 2004; Hainzl et al., 2006):
f (T )  CT  1 exp( T  ) . (5.1)
Using synthetic datasets generated by the ETAS model (Hainzl et al., 2006; Touati et
al., 2009), this type of scaling has been interpreted as a mixed distribution of correlated
aftershocks that scale as a power-law at short and intermediate inter-event times and
uncorrelated (Poissonian) background activity that decays exponentially at long inter-
event times.
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However, for non-stationary time series in California and Japan, long inter-event times
scale as another power-law (Corral, 2003; Talbi and Yamazaki, 2010), similar to the
scaling behavior of the inter-event times observed in the HUSN and CRL datasets
(Fig.2.8b). Asymptotic power-law scaling has also been shown in a series of studies, in
which the q-exponential distribution was used to describe the cumulative distribution
of inter-event times (Abe and Suzuki, 2005; Darooneh and Dadashinia, 2008;
Vallianatos et al., 2012b, Papadakis et al., 2013; Antonopoulos et al., 2014; see also §
2.6.3.1). Taking in account these observations and the non-extensive statistical
mechanics theory, I propose a scaling relation for non-stationary earthquake time series
that presents two power-law regimes in both short and long inter-event times. This
relation generalizes the gamma distribution and has the form of a q-generalized gamma
distribution:
f (T )  CT  1 expq ( T  ) , (5.2)
where expq(x) is the q-exponential function defined in Eq.2.43. According to Eq.5.2,

for small values of T, p(T) scales as a power-law, p(T ) T  1 , and for large values of
T, p(T) decays asymptotically as another power-law, p(T ) T 1  1q  (Queiros, 2005).
In the limit of q→1 the q-generalized gamma distribution (Eq.5.2) recovers the ordinary
gamma distribution (Eq.5.1).
In Fig.5.9 the probability densities p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the
HUSN and the CRLN datasets are plotted and the corresponding fits, according to the
gamma (Eq.5.1) and q-generalized gamma (Eq.5.2) distributions. The two probability
densities p(T) present similar scaling behavior and fall approximately onto a unique
curve (Fig.5.9). The gamma distribution (Eq.5.1) provides a good fit at short and
intermediate T for the values of C = 0.4, β = 1.65 and γ = 0.38, but it deviates at longer
T, where the data decay as another power-law, rather than the exponential decay
incorporated in the second term of the gamma distribution. This type of scaling
behavior is described by the q-generalized gamma distribution that provides an
excellent fit to the entire range of T, for the values of C = 0.4, β = 1.65, γ = 0.38 and q
= 1.23 (Fig.5.9). According to this scaling behavior, for short T the probability density
p(T) for the various datasets decays as a power law with an exponent of about 0.6 up to
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T  1 , where the q-exponential scaling emerges. For longer T, p(T) decays

asymptotically as another power-law with an exponent of about 2.7.
Figure 5.9: Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the HUSN
(squares) and CRLN (circles) datasets. The solid line represents the corresponding fit
according to the q-generalized gamma distribution (Eq.5.2), for the values of C = 0.4,
β = 1.65, γ = 0.38 and q = 1.23. The dashed line represents the corresponding fit
according to the gamma distribution (Eq.5.1) for the values of C = 0.4, β = 1.65 and γ
= 0.38.
In Michas et al. (2013), I performed the analysis on the inter-event time series of the
2001 – 2008 earthquake activity in the West Corinth Rift according to the CRLN dataset
and I used the q-generalized gamma distribution to describe the observed scaling
behavior. The analysis indicated an excellent agreement between the data and the
proposed distribution and for similar scaling parameters values as those found here, by
fitting Eq.5.2 to the 2001 – 2013 earthquake activity in the West Corinth Rift (CRLN
dataset) and to the 2008 – 2013 earthquake activity in the Corinth Rift (HUSN dataset).
This result implies self-similarity in the temporal properties of seismicity in the Rift for
150
various time periods and spatial scales. To further study this result, the probability
density of the rescaled inter-event times according to the three datasets and for various
threshold magnitudes (M0) are plotted in Fig.5.10, along with the probability density
for the 1967 – 2014 earthquake activity in the Rift (M0 = 3.8) according to the NOA
catalogue, which was used in Chapter 4 to study the earthquake size distribution in the
Figure 5.10: Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the HUSN,
CRLN and NOA datasets and for various time periods and threshold magnitudes. The
solid line represents the corresponding fit according to the q-generalized gamma
distribution (Eq.5.2) for the values of C = 0.4, β = 1.65, γ = 0.38 and q = 1.23. The
dashed line represents the corresponding fit according to the gamma distribution
(Eq.5.1) for the values of C = 0.4, β = 1.65 and γ = 0.38.
Rift. The graph shows an almost perfect collapse of p(T) into the unique curve for the
various datasets, which is described by the q-generalized gamma distribution (Fig.5.10)
for the values of C = 0.4, β = 1.65, γ = 0.38 and q = 1.23. The scattering in short T can
be attributed to the small number of events (< 1000) that are included in the datasets
for higher M0 and in the NOA dataset. This result indicates the self-similar temporal
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structure of seismicity in the Rift and implies that by just knowing the average seismic
rate R in the region, the probability density of inter-event times p(τ) can be obtained
as p( )  Rf (T ) (Corral, 2004), where f(T) can well be approximated by the q-
generalized gamma distribution (Eq.5.2) for the parameter values found previously.
Figure 5.11: Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for various
time periods of stationary seismicity in the Rift. The solid line is the gamma distribution
The scaling behavior of p(T) is further studied for three periods of stationary seismicity
in the Rift. These periods are recognized by the absence of significant increases in the
seismicity rates and the constant increasing of the cumulative number of events, marked
with the double arrows in Fig.5.2 and Fig.5.5. These include the 2011 – 2013
earthquake activity in the Rift, shown in Fig.5.2 and the 2001 – 2006 and 2011 – 2013
earthquake activity in the West Corinth Rift, shown in Fig.5.5. The probability densities
p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for those periods are shown in Fig.5.11. The
probability densities p(T) fall onto a unique curve that is best described by the gamma
distribution (Eq.5.1) for the values of C = 0.5, β = 1.7 and γ = 0.56 (Fig.5.11). Thus,
152
during periods of stationary seismicity in the Rift p(T) decays slowly as a power-law
with an exponent of about 0.45, for short T and up to T ≈ 1 and for longer T it presents
a fast exponential decay. The observed scaling is in agreement with the results of
previous studies, which indicate this type of scaling for stationary seismicity (Corral,
2004; 2006; Hainzl et al., 2006).
In addition, the probability densities p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the
declustered datasets are studied, in order to investigate the effect of aftershocks in the
scaling behavior of the distributions. In this case the aftershocks, which present a short-
term clustering effect, have been removed from the HUSN and CRLN datasets. The
observed p(T) for the two datasets are shown in Fig.B.4 (Appendix B) and
approximately fall onto a unique curve that is well described by the q-generalized
gamma distribution (Eq.5.2) for the values of C = 0.9, β = 0.8, γ = 0.75 and q = 1.23.
Thus, we observe a similar scaling behavior as for the entire datasets regarding the two
power-law regimes at short and long inter-event times respectively. The depletion of
aftershocks from the datasets results in a weaker short-term clustering effect, where the
power-law exponent decreases ( p(T ) T  1 , with γ = 0.38 for the entire datasets and γ
= 0.75 for the declustered ones), while the scaling behavior for long-inter-event times
that characterize the background activity remains the same (similar q-values).
5.3.2 A dynamic mechanism for the inter-event time distribution
Queiros (2005) developed a stochastic dynamic mechanism with memory effects,

whose stationary solution is the q-generalized gamma distribution (Eq.5.2) that was
introduced in the previous section. The dynamic scenario is based on the local
fluctuations of the observable under study that produces the observed scaling. The q-
generalized gamma distribution is similar to the F-distribution known from statistics
(Marchand, 2003) and was empirically proposed to describe stock traded volume
distributions in financial markets (Osorio et al., 2004). Financial time series present
similar characteristics to earthquake time series, such as high fluctuations, power-law
scaling and multifractal behavior (Ghashghaie et al., 1996; Mantegna and Stanley,
1999). The dynamic scenario of Queiros (2005) is here proposed as a possible dynamic
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mechanism for the observed scaling behavior of the earthquake inter-event time series
and is further described below.
We may consider that the evolution of earthquake activity is controlled by two parts. A
first deterministic one that represents the aim of keeping the seismic rate stable to the
typical value of 1  and similar to a restoring force γ. The second stochastic part
represents the memory effects in the earthquake activity. Mathematically, this can be
expressed by the following Feller process (Feller, 1951; Queiros, 2005):
dT   T    dt   T dWt , (5.3)
where T is the inter-event time series normalized to the mean value T    at some
time t and Wt is a Wiener process following a Gaussian distribution with zero mean and
unitary variance. Wt represents the stochastic process that mimics the microscopic
effects in the evolution of T and due to its random sign leads to an increase (Wt > 0) or
decrease (Wt < 0) of T. The term φ can be expressed as a function of the mean inter-
2
event time  and the restoring force γ as    , where ζ is a characteristic constant

of the system (Queiros, 2005).
The corresponding Fokker-Planck equation for Eq.5.3 can be written as:
f T , t   2   
  T    f T , t    2 T  f T , t   .
T 
(5.4)
t T  
Its stationary solution is the gamma distribution (Gradshteyn and Ryzhik, 1965):
 1
  T    
f (T )    exp   T  . (5.5)
        
Let’s now consider local fluctuations in the seismic rate associated with non-
stationarities in the evolution of the earthquake activity. In this case the mean inter-
event time  fluctuates and we assume that it follows the stationary gamma
distribution:
154

 
 
   
P( )      ( 1) exp   . (5.6)
     
In this case Eq.5.5 provides the conditional probability of T given  and the joint
probability for obtaining certain values of T and  is P(T , )  p(T |  ) P( ) . The
marginal probability of T, independent of  , is now given by:
 
P(T )   P(T , )d   p(T |  ) P( )d . (5.7)
0 0
By performing the integration in Eq.5.7 and from Eq.5.5 and Eq.5.6 we get
    
P(T )  (T ) 1 (1  T )    . (5.8)
     
By carrying out the change in the variables
q 1 1
 ,    ,    1 (5.9)
 q 1
and considering the q-exponential distribution given in Eq.2.43, Eq.5.8 can be written
as (Queiros, 2005):
 1 
 q  1
 1
  
P(T )   q  1 T   T
  exp q    . (5.10)
 1     
     1    1
 q 1 
Eq.5.10 has the exact form of the q-generalized gamma distribution given in Eq.5.2.
Dynamically, the gamma distribution is recovered if  does not fluctuate. P( ) then

equals the Dirac delta function centered in some value   (Queiros, 2005).

The previous stochastic dynamic mechanism is verified in the Corinth Rift. The non-
stationary earthquake time series, where the mean inter-event time  fluctuates,
present two power-law regions at short and long inter-event times and scale according
155
to the q-generalized gamma distribution. For stationary periods, where  is

approximately constant, the scaling behavior approximates the gamma distribution.
5.4 Multifractality in the earthquake time series
In the previous section the histograms and the probability density of inter-event times
were studied for various time periods and spatial scales in the Rift. The analysis
indicated scaling and temporal clustering of seismicity at both short and long inter-
event times, in the case where the non-stationary earthquake time series were
considered. The previous analysis represents only a first order approximation of the
temporal structure of seismicity. In order to further study the structure and the clustering
variability of the earthquake time series in the Corinth Rift, multifractal analysis is
performed on the inter-event time series of the HUSN and CRLN datasets.
The standard technique for applying the multifractal analysis was described in § 2.2
and is based on the probability distribution of the variable and the calculation of its
moments of order q. This technique, although quite useful for stationary or normalized
series (Feder, 1988; Barabási and Vicsek, 1991), can produce erroneous results in the
case of non-stationary series that present trends that cannot be normalized (Kantelhardt,
2009). To overcome this drawback, the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM)
method was introduced in the early 1990s (Muzy et al., 1991; Arneodo et al., 1995) and
later on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) (Kantelhardt et al.,
2002). Both WTMM and MF-DFA methods can eliminate polynomial trends from non-
stationary series and reliably estimate the multifractal structure. However, MF-DFA is
in many cases preferred due to its simple implementation and computational effort. In
addition, MF-DFA seems to perform slightly better than WTMM for short series
(Kantelhardt et al., 2002) and it is recommended in the majority of situations in which
the fractal structure of the series is unknown a priori (Oświecimka et al., 2006).
In general, two types of multifractality can be distinguished in the series (Kantelhardt

et al., 2002). The first type is related to the range of fractal dimensions that are present
due to different correlations in small and large fluctuations of the series. The second
type is engendered due to a broad probability distribution. The simplest way to
156
distinguish between the two types of multifractality is to perform the analysis on the
randomly shuffled series (Kantelhardt et al., 2002). By randomly shuffling the series,
any correlations due to the order of the successive events are destroyed, while the
probability density remains unchanged. Hence, the shuffled series will exhibit non-
multifractal structure and random behavior if the observed multifractality is due to
different correlations of small and large fluctuations. On the other hand, if the
multifractal structure appears due to a broad probability distribution, it will not be
affected by the shuffling procedure. In the case where both types of multifractality are
present in the series, then the shuffled series will exhibit a weaker multifractality than
the original.
In the following, the MF-DFA method is described and then applied to the inter-event
time series of the HUSN and CRLN datasets. The analysis is also performed on
randomly shuffled copies of the original series, in order to distinguish between the
different types of multifractality. The results for different threshold magnitudes and
time periods are also compared.
5.4.1 Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis
The implementation of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to a

fluctuating series u(i) of total length N (i=1,…,N) consists of the following steps
(Kantelhardt et al., 2002). The average <u> is first subtracted from the series u(i) and
the resulting series is then integrated:
k
y (k )   [u (i)  u ] , (5.11)
i 1
with k = 1,2,…,N. Then the integrated series y(k) is divided into non-overlapping
segments of equal size n resulting in Nn=(N/n) segments. Since the length N of the series
is not always a multiple of the segments size n, a short part at the end of y(k) is not
included in the analysis. In order not to disregard this part, the procedure is repeated
starting from the end of y(k), resulting in 2Nn total segments (Kantelhardt et al., 2001).
In each of the 2Nn segments, y(ν) (ν = 1,2,…2Nn) is fitted to a polynomial function yn(ν)
that represents the local trend in the series. The polynomial function yn(ν) can be of
157
different orders l, thus removing different trends from the series. The polynomial trend
is linear when l = 1, quadratic when l = 2 and cubic when l = 3. Then y(ν) is “detrended”
by subtracting the local trend yn(ν) in each segment ν and the root mean-square
fluctuation F(n, ν) is calculated as:
2 Nn
1
F (n, )    y( )  y ( )
2
n . (5.12)
2 Nn  1
The previous steps correspond to the standard Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA)
(Peng et al., 1994), a technique that is widely used in the estimation of long-range
correlations in non-stationary fluctuating series (e.g., Bashan et al., 2008). Its main
advantage over other scaling techniques, such as the autocorrelation function, spectral
analysis or rescaled range analysis (e.g., Kantelhardt, 2009), is that it can reliably
estimate the correlations in non-stationary series embedded in polynomial trends, thus
avoiding any artifacts that are produced due to non-stationarities (Hu et al., 2001; Chen
et al., 2002).
The next step in MF-DFA is to estimate the qth order fluctuation function Fq(n) by
averaging over all segments n, as:
1q
 1 2 Nn


q 2
Fq (n)    F 2
(n, )   . (5.13)
 2 Nn 1 
The index variable q can take any real value and for q = 2 the standard DFA is retrieved.
In the limit q→0 the exponent in Eq.5.13 diverges and instead a logarithmic averaging
procedure is employed in the estimation of Fq(n) (Kantelhardt et al., 2002),
 1 2 Nn

F0 (n)  exp   ln  F 2
(n, )   . (5.14)
 4 Nn 1 
The previous steps are repeated for various segment sizes n and the scaling relation
between the q-dependent fluctuation functions Fq(n) and n is estimated. For each value
of q, the scaling behavior of the fluctuation functions can be determined by analyzing
the plots of Fq(n) versus n. If the series u(i) are long-range power-law correlated, Fq(n)
will increase as a power-law as a function of n,
158
Fq (n) ~ nh ( q ) , (5.15)
with h(q) > 0.5. For h(q) < 0.5, the series are anti-correlated and for h(q) = 0.5
uncorrelated (random). For stationary series, h(2) is identical to the Hurst exponent H
(Hurst, 1951; Fedder, 1988). Thus, h(q) can be called the generalized Hurst exponent
or alternatively the q-order Hurst exponent.
For very large segment sizes, n > N/4, the number of segments Nn in the averaging
procedure of Eq.5.13 becomes very small and the estimation of Fq(n) becomes
statistically unreliable (Kantelhardt et al., 2002). The previous steps are thus repeated
for segment sizes up to N/4.
If the series includes a range of fractal dimensions, then the series is multifractal and
the exponent h(q) will depend on the various values of q. In this case the fluctuation
functions scale differently. For positive values of q, the segments ν with large F2(n, ν)
will dominate the average Fq(n) (Eq.5.3) and h(q) will describe the scaling behavior of
the segments ν with large fluctuations. For negative values of q, h(q) will describe the
scaling behavior of the segments ν with small fluctuations, as the segments ν with small
F2(n, ν) will dominate the average Fq(n) (Kantelhardt et al., 2002). On the other hand,
if the series is described by only one fractal dimension (monofractal series), the scaling
behavior of F2(n, ν) is similar for all segments ν and h(q) will be independent of q.
The generalized Hurst exponents h(q) are only one of the various types of scaling
exponents that are used to characterize the multifractal structure of the series (§ 2.2).
The scaling exponents h(q) can directly be related to the q-order mass exponents τ(q)
that correspond to the multifractal formalism based on the standard partition function
(Kantelhardt et al., 2002), as:
 (q)  qh(q) 1 . (5.16)
For random and monofractal series, the mass exponent τ(q) is linearly dependent on q.
If the structure of the series is multifractal, then this linearity breaks. The mass exponent
τ(q) is related to the generalized fractal dimension Dq (Eq.2.4) as  (q)  (q  1) Dq
(Kantelhardt, 2009).
159
The other way to characterize a multifractal series is the singularity spectrum f(a). The
singularity spectrum can directly be estimated from the mass exponents τ(q). By using
the Legendre transform (Fedder, 1988):
d
 , (5.17)
dq
the singularity spectrum f(a) is obtained as:
f ( )  q  (q) , (5.18)
where a is the singularity strength or Hölder exponent and f(a) indicates the dimension
of the subset of the series that has the same singularity strength a (see also § 2.2). In
monofractal series, the singularity strength is similar over the entire range of values and
f(a) collapses into a single point.
5.4.2 Multifractal Analysis of the inter-event time series
To characterize the structure of the earthquake time series in the Corinth Rift, the MF-
DFA method is applied to the inter-event time series of the HUSN and CRLN datasets,
as those were described in § 5.2.1 and § 5.2.2 respectively. The inter-event time series
τ (for τ ≥ 60 sec) were initially divided into 50 non-overlapping and logarithmically
spaced time segments n, of minimum size n = 10 events and up to the maximum size
of n = N/4. The analysis was performed for q   5,5 and step size of 0.2. The Matlab®
script for performing the MF-DFA is provided in Appendix C.
In Fig.5.12 the logarithm of the fluctuation functions Fq(n) that resulted from the
analysis are shown as a function of the logarithm of the segment sizes n for the two
datasets. The analysis was performed for various orders l of the detrending polynomial
function yn(ν) with similar results for l ≥ 2, indicating that a second order (l = 2)
polynomial function is sufficient to remove any trends from the series. In general, Fq(n)
grows as a power-law with n for both datasets (Fig.5.12), indicating the presence of
scaling. For the HUSN dataset and for q = -5, Fq(n) scales with n as a power-law with
exponent h(q) = 1 ±0.05 and for q = 5 with exponent h(q) = 0.64 ±0.03, indicating that
large (for q > 0) and small fluctuations (for q < 0) scale differently (Fig.5.12a). For
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segment sizes greater than 289 events (logn = 2.46) a crossover (dotted line in
Fig.5.12a) appears in the scaling behavior of Fq(n). The power-law exponents h(q)
increase for n > 289 events and take the values of h(q) = 0.8 ±0.1, for q = 5, and h(q) =
2 ±0.34, for q = -5 (Fig.5.12a).
For the CRLN dataset a similar crossover in the scaling behavior of Fq(n) appears at n
= 361 events (logn = 2.56, marked with the dotted line in Fig.5.12b), indicating that the
fluctuation functions Fq(n) scale differently for small and large segment sizes n. The
segment size of n = 361 events in the CRLN dataset usually corresponds to time-scales
of a month or more. For segment sizes n < 361 the fluctuation functions scale as a
power-law with n with h(q) = 0.56 ±0.02, for q = 5 and h(q) = 0.59 ±0.04, for q = -5.
The similar exponents h(q) for the various orders of q indicate that for small segment
sizes, the inter-event time series in the West Corinth Rift behaves as a single fractal
(monofractal), forming single temporal clusters. For larger segment sizes (n > 361),
small and large fluctuations scale differently for the various orders of q, with h(q) =
0.84 ±0.05, for q = 5 and h(q) = 2.82 ±0.22, for q = -5 (Fig.5.12b).
The entire range of generalized Hurst exponents h(q) for the various orders of q is
shown in Fig.5.13a, for the HUSN dataset and in Fig.5.13b, for the CRLN dataset. The
exponents h(q) are estimated for the various orders of q, for n < 289 and for n > 289 for
the HUSN dataset, and for n > 361 for the CRLN dataset. For both datasets, small and
large fluctuations scale differently and the generalized Hurst exponents h(q) decrease
monotonically with increasing q (Fig.5.13), behavior that is typical for multifractal
series. The values of h(q) for long segment sizes n are larger for both datasets (Fig.5.13)
and the decrease of h(q) with increasing q is more pronounced, indicating a more
persistent behavior at long time-scales.
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a)
b)
Figure 5.12: The logarithm of the fluctuation function Fq(n) versus the logarithm of
the segment sizes n for a) the HUSN dataset and b) the CRLN dataset. The fluctuation
functions are estimated for various values of q   5,5 and step size 0.2, increasing
from bottom to top. A second order polynomial (l = 2) was used for detrending the
inter-event time series.
162
a)
b)
Figure 5.13: The range of generalized Hurst exponents h(q) for various values of q ∈
[-5, 5] and step size 0.2, for a) the HUSN dataset and b) the CRLN dataset. The
corresponding confidence intervals are plotted as error bars. The mean h(q) that resulted
from 10 randomly shuffled copies of the original inter-event time series is also plotted.
The q-order mass exponents τ(q) for the two datasets are estimated from Eq.5.16 and
are plotted in Fig.5.14 as a function of q. For both series, the mass exponents τ(q) grow
163
non-linearly as a function of q, exhibiting different scaling behavior for q < 0 and q >
0, as it is expected for multifractal series.
a)
b)
Figure 5.14: The mass exponent τ(q) for the various orders of q, for the HUSN dataset
and b) the CRLN dataset. The mean τ(q) that resulted from 10 randomly shuffled copies
of the original inter-event time series is also shown.
Furthermore, by using the Legendre transform (Eq.5.17), the singularity spectrum f(a)
is estimated from Eq.5.18 for the various Hölder exponents a. The estimated f(a) for
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the two datasets is shown in Fig.5.15. In both cases the spectrum is wide, indicating
multifractality in the earthquake time series. The spectrum f(a) for the HUSN dataset is
wider for long segment sizes than for short ones, indicating a wider range of fractal
dimensions (Fig.5.15a). The maximum frequency (f(a) = 1) is observed for Hölder
exponents a in the range of 0.79 – 0.82 for the HUSN dataset and for short segment
sizes (Fig.5.15a), while for long segment sizes the maximum frequency is observed for
a in the range of 1.12 – 1.22 for both datasets (Fig.5.15). In the latter case, the
singularity spectrums f(a) are broader to the right for both datasets , indicating that
small fluctuations due to the negative orders of q are more inhomogeneous than the
large fluctuations (for q > 0). In addition, the width of the singularity spectrum f(a),
defined as W = amax – amin, indicates the range of fractal exponents that are present in
the series and it can then be considered as a measure of the degree of multifractality
(Ashkenazy et al., 2003; Telesca and Lapenna, 2006). For the HUSN dataset and for
short segment sizes W ≈ 0.64, whereas for the longer ones W ≈ 1.6. For the CRLN
dataset, W ≈ 2.5, indicating a wider spectrum and a richer structure in fractal exponents
in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth Rift.
To distinguish between the types of multifractality that are present in the inter-event
time series, the previous analysis is performed for randomly shuffled copies of the
original series. In this way, the correlations due to the order of the successive
earthquakes are destroyed. For each of the two datasets, ten randomly shuffled copies
were generated from the original series and MF-DFA was performed. The resulting
values were averaged and the mean hshuf(q), τshuf(q), αshuf and fshuf(α) are shown in
Fig.5.13, Fig.5.14 and Fig.5.15 respectively, along with the results of the analysis for
the original series. For the HUSN dataset, the mean hshuf(q) varies between hshuf(-5) =
0.58 ±0.03 and hshuf(5) = 0.46 ±0.03 and for the CRLN dataset between hshuf(-5) = 0.56
±0.02 and hshuf(5) = 0.46 ±0.03. For both datasets, hshuf(2) that corresponds to the
scaling exponent of the standard DFA analysis is hshuf(2) ≈ 0.5, indicating random
behavior of the shuffled series. The variations of the mean hshuf(q) around the value of
0.5 indicate the loss of correlations in the shuffled series. However a weak dependence
of hshuf(q) on q still remains for both datasets (Fig.5.13). The loss of multifractality in
the shuffled series can also be observed in Fig.5.14, where the mean τshuf(q) is almost
linear with q and in Fig.5.15, where the range of Hölder exponents αshuf has
substantially decreased. These results indicate that the observed multifractality in the
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original inter-event time series is due to different long-range correlations of small and
large fluctuations. However, a small contribution from the broad probability densities,
found for the two datasets in § 5.3.1, to the observed multifractality cannot be excluded.
a)
b)
Figure 5.15: The singularity spectrum f(a) as a function of the Hölder exponent a, for
a) the HUSN dataset and b) the CRLN dataset. The mean singularity spectrum f(a),
which resulted from ten randomly shuffled copies of the original inter-event time series,
is also plotted for the two datasets respectively.
166
In summary, the results of the analysis indicated that for short segment sizes, the inter-
event time series has a multifractal structure for the entire area of the Rift (HUSN
dataset), while for the west part of the Rift (CRLN dataset) the series is more
homogeneous and approaches a monofractal structure. For long segment sizes the
structure of the series is multifractal for both datasets and “richer” in structure, with a
wider range of fractal exponents present. The crossover between the two scaling
behaviors in the fluctuation functions occur at similar segment sizes for the two datasets
(n ≈ 300 events), which usually correspond to time-scales of a month or more. The
latter suggests that for short time-scales the time dynamics in the west part of the Rift
are more homogeneous with earthquakes belonging to single temporal clusters. For the
entire area of the Rift this effect is not observed, as the activation of multiple
seismogenic sources along the Rift favors heterogeneity in the temporal structure of
seismicity and multifractality. The latter effect and the multifractal temporal structure
of seismicity become more pronounced for longer time-scales, where multiple temporal
clusters are active.
Multifractal analysis was also performed on the inter-event time series of the
declustered HUSN and CRLN datasets and the results are shown in Appendix B. In this
case, the depletion of aftershocks results in weaker multifractality in both datasets
(Fig.B.5 and Fig.B.6). A crossover in the scaling behavior of Fq(n) for the HUSN
dataset appears for large Fq(n) (q > 0) (Fig.B.5a), while this crossover vanishes for
small Fq(n) (q < 0). The range of generalized Hurst exponents h(q) varies between h(-
5) = 0.74 ±0.06 and h(5) = 0.36 ±0.03 for the HUSN dataset (n < 80) (Fig.B.5b) and
between h(-5) = 1.05 ±0.05 and h(5) = 0.76 ±0.04 for the CRLN dataset (Fig.B.6b).
5.4.3 The effect of the threshold magnitude
The effect of the threshold magnitude (Mth) in the multifractal structure of the inter-
event time series for the two datasets is further studied by applying MF-DFA for various
Mth. In this case the analysis is performed on the inter-event time series, for the events
with M ≥ Mth, with Mth varying between 2 – 2.8 for the HUSN catalogue and 1.4 – 2.6
for the CRLN catalogue. The results are presented in terms of the singularity spectrum’s
167
width W as a function of Mth, which shows how multifractality degree changes with
Mth.
The results of the analysis for the two datasets are shown in Fig.5.16. The multifractal
structure of the inter-event time series is evident for the entire range of threshold
magnitudes Mth. The degree of multifractality, as expressed through the singularity
spectrum’s width W, is quite stable for Mth in the range of 1.4 – 1.8 and 2 – 2.6 for the
CRLN (n > 361) and HUSN (n < 289) datasets, respectively. For greater Mth, W
increases for both datasets, indicating a wider range of Hölder exponents a, while for
long segment sizes (n > 289) in the HUSN dataset W remains quite stable for greater
Mth (Fig.5.16).
Figure 5.16: Singularity spectrum’s width W as a function of the threshold magnitude

Mth, for the CRLN (circles) and the HUSN (squares) datasets.
5.4.4 Temporal variations
Multifractal analysis on the inter-event time series provides insights into the temporal
structure of earthquake activity. However, it does not provide any information on the
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dynamic changes that may occur in the evolution of earthquake activity during the
considered period. In order to perform such an analysis, MF-DFA is applied to the inter-
event time series at different time intervals by using a sliding temporal window F,
which is defined by the width w and the sliding factor Δ (Gamero et al., 1997). The set
of inter-event times τj in each temporal window is defined as:
Fm   j , j  1  m,..., w  m , m  0,1, 2,..., Nm , (5.19)
where m controls the time displacement of the sliding window. For instance, if w = 100
and Δ = 50, the set of inter-event times is W0  1 , 2 ,...,100  , W1   51 , 52 ,...,150  etc.
The width of w = 103 and the sliding factor of Δ = 100 were used for the analysis,
resulting in 90% overlap between the successive time windows. The particular selection
of w and Δ assures a sufficient number of events in each temporal window and a good
smoothing and resolution between the estimated values and time. MF-DFA is
performed on the inter-event time series in each temporal window and the width W of
the singularity spectrum is estimated as an indication of the multifractality degree
during this period. The estimated W is then associated with the time of the last
earthquake in each temporal window F and W is plotted as function of time.
The results of the analysis are shown in Fig.5.17. For both datasets, the degree of
multifractality exhibits strong variations with time that are associated with the range of
Hölder exponents, a, that is present in each time period. In particular for the HUSN
dataset, these variations are more intense during 2009 – 2011, where the seismicity is
non-stationary and the rate exhibits strong variations (Fig.5.2). The most abrupt change
occurs after the 2010 Efpalion earthquake (Fig.5.17a). After this earthquake, the
triggered aftershocks dominate the earthquake activity in the Rift. For small segment
sizes (n < 289) the loss of multifractality and the tendency towards monofractality is
observed (Fig.5.17a), indicating more homogeneous time dynamics. Telesca and
Lapenna (2006) observed similar behavior in central Italy, where a loss of
multifractality in the inter-event time series occurred during the aftershock sequence
that followed a strong event (MD = 5.8) on September 26, 1997. For larger segment
sizes (n > 289) the multifractality degree increases after the 2010 Efpalion earthquake
169
a)
b)
Figure 5.17: Singularity spectrum’s width W, as a measure of the degree of

multifractality over time, for sliding temporal windows of width w = 103 and sliding
factor Δ = 100, for a) the HUSN dataset and b) the CRLN dataset (n > 361).
indicating a heterogeneous clustering degree that is enhanced by mixing the

background activity with aftershocks. During 2011 – 2013, where the seismicity rate is
almost constant in the Rift (Fig.5.2), the degree of multifractality is nearly constant
(Fig.5.17a). During periods where both high and low seismicity rates are incorporated
in the dataset, the singularity spectrum is ‘‘richer’’ in structure, exhibiting a wider range
170
of Hölder exponents a. This effect can be observed in the second half of 2010 and
during 2013 – 2014, where the background earthquake activity mixes first with the
Efpalion aftershock sequence and then with two earthquake swarms that occurred in
the Rift (§ 5.2.1).
Larger variations in the degree of multifractality appear in the inter-event time series
for the West Corinth Rift (CRLN dataset) (Fig.5.17b). However, this dataset shows
similar characteristics to the HUSN dataset. Lower values of multifractality and the
tendency towards monofractality are observed after the 2010 Efaplion earthquake and
in the beginning of 2007, where the Efpalion aftershock sequence and the 2007
earthquake swarm sequence (Bourouis and Cornet, 2009) dominate the activity in the
West Corinth Rift (§ 5.2.2). Other low values of multifractality are observed during
2002 – 2004, the end of 2005 and the beginning of 2006 and during 2012 and are
associated with periods of stationary activity (Fig.5.5). However, during the stationary
periods of 2004 – 2005, mid-2006, 2008 and 2013 (Fig.5.5), abrupt increases in the
degree of multifractality are also observed (Fig.5.17b), indicating the highly variable
degree of clustering in the temporal evolution of earthquake activity in the Rift.
5.5 Discussion
In the present chapter the temporal properties of earthquake activity in the Corinth Rift
were studied in terms of the inter-event time series, during the period of 2008 – 2013,
for the entire area of the Rift and during 2001 – 2013 for the West Corinth Rift. The
earthquake activity during the considered periods exhibit non-stationary character, with
periods of low to moderate activity interspersed with periods of high seismicity rates,
which are associated with frequent earthquake swarms and the occurrence of the two
2010 Efpalion strong events that were followed by numerous aftershocks.
The probability densities of the inter-event times for the two datasets (Fig.5.7 and
Fig.5.8) exhibit a crossover behavior between slow power-law decay for short inter-
event times and faster power-law decay for long inter-event times. This property
suggests clustering effects at all timescales and memory in the evolution of the
earthquake activity in the Rift. Short and long-term clustering in the time intervals
between successive earthquakes has been found in previous studies by Kagan and
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Jackson (1991), for various earthquake catalogues and by Corral (2003) for Southern
California. This property can be viewed in terms of probabilities of subsequent
earthquakes (e.g., Sornette and Knopoff, 1997). The probability densities in the Corinth
Rift suggest that the probability of a subsequent earthquake is high immediately after
the occurrence of the previous one and decreases slowly up to a characteristic time,
where a crossover to faster decaying probabilities is observed. Short and long-term
clustering effects further suggest that short and long inter-event times are more likely
to be followed by short and long ones respectively, similar to the results of Corral
(2003; 2004), Livina et al. (2005) and Lennartz et al. (2008), which suggested long-
term correlations and memory in the seismogenic process.
After rescaling inter-event times with the mean seismic rates during the considered
periods, the probability densities fall approximately onto a unique curve that is well
described by the q-generalized gamma distribution (Eq.5.2), which presents two power-
law regimes at both short and long inter-event times. This type of scaling suggests that
1  1q 
the rescaled inter-event times scale as T  1 , for short time intervals and as T ,
for long time intervals. In Michas et al. (2013), we suggested this type of scaling
behavior for the 2001 – 2008 earthquake activity in the West Corinth Rift and here it is
verified for various time periods, spatial scales and threshold magnitudes in the Rift
(Fig.5.10). This result indicates the self-similarity of earthquake time series in the Rift
and suggests that the probability density of inter-event times p(τ) can be drawn from
p( )  Rf T  , where R is the mean seismicity rate and f(T) the scaling function that
can well be described by the q-generalized gamma distribution. However, if periods of
stationary seismicity in the Rift are considered, the rescaled inter-event times exhibit
probability densities that scale according to the gamma distribution (Eq.5.1) (Fig.5.11),
in accordance with the results of Corral (2004). This type of scaling and the exponential
decay of long inter-event times for stationary periods suggest a fraction of uncorrelated
activity in the Rift. According to Molchan (2005) and Hainzl et al. (2006), the fraction
of uncorrelated background activity can be estimated as 1  , where β is the scaling
parameter incorporated in the gamma distribution (Eq.5.1). Following Molchan (2005)
and Hainzl et al. (2006), for β = 1.7, this fraction corresponds to almost 60% of
uncorrelated background seismicity, a value that is almost similar to the fraction
172
resulted from the declustering analysis, which indicated 50% and 65% of background
activity in the HUSN and CRLN datasets respectively.
Furthermore, the stochastic dynamic mechanism with memory effects, which was here
proposed as one that reproduces the observed scaling behavior, is consistent with the
obtained results. During non-stationary periods, where the seismic rate fluctuates, the
solution of this mechanism is the q-generalized gamma distribution, which was found
to describe the scaling behavior of inter-event times during periods of non-stationary
earthquake activity in the Rift (Fig.5.9 and Fig.5.10). This mechanism recovers the
standard gamma distribution during periods of stationary activity, similar to the results
found for the probability densities of the rescaled inter-event times during periods of
stationary earthquake activity in the Rift (Fig.5.11).
In addition, the clustering variability in the temporal structure of seismicity was further
studied by applying multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to the inter-
event time series. The multifractal analysis showed that small and large fluctuations
scale differently, indicating a multifractal structure in the inter-event time series and a
heterogeneous degree of clustering. A crossover behavior between short and long
segment sizes appears for both datasets. For short segment sizes, the inter-event time
series has a multifractal structure for the entire area of the Rift (HUSN dataset), while
for the west part of the Rift (CRLN dataset) the series approaches a monofractal
structure. For long segment sizes the structure of the series is multifractal for both
datasets. The range of generalized Hurst exponents further indicated long-term
correlations and non-Poissonian temporal behavior. Analysis of the randomly shuffled
series indicated that the observed multifractality is mainly due to different long-range
correlations in the series. Analysis of the singularity spectrum’s width, as a measure of
the degree of multifractality with time, showed large fluctuations for the different time
periods (Fig.5.17). The large fluctuations are related to periods of high and low
earthquake activity in the Rift and indicate the clustering variability in the temporal
evolution of seismicity.
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Chapter 6
Earthquake Diffusion
6.1 Introduction
Earthquake diffusion refers to the expansion or migration of the spatial zone of

earthquakes with time. Such phenomena are frequently observed in cases of triggered
seismicity, such as in aftershock sequences or in earthquake swarms (Tajima and
Kanamori, 1985; Noir et al., 1997; Jacques et al., 1999; Antonioli et al., 2005). The
simplest mechanism for aftershock triggering is coseismic stress transfer and increasing
Coulomb stress due to the occurrence of a strong earthquake (King et al., 1994; Stein,
1999). The conditions for which a fault fails are expressed mathematically by the
empirical Coulomb failure criterion:
 c   s  s  n  p  , (6.1)
where τc is the Coulomb stress, μs the friction coefficient, σs and σn the shear and normal
stresses to a specified fault plane and p the pore-pressure in the fault (King et al., 1994;
Stein, 1999). Aftershock diffusion can thus be related to a stress diffusion process,
which corresponds to the propagation of a stress pulse away from the initial strong
event at time scales much larger than those involved in the propagation of seismic
waves (Marsan et al., 2000; Helmstetter et al., 2003). Another plausible mechanism is
Chapter 6 Earthquake Diffusion
the existence of a pore-pressure diffusion process at depth, induced by the regional

stress redistribution caused by the occurrence of strong events (Bosl and Nur, 2002). In
a fluid saturated and critically stressed crust, even small pore-pressure perturbations are
known to decrease the effective strength along pre-existing faults (Eq.6.1) and trigger
earthquakes (Nur and Booker, 1972; Talwani and Acree, 1984; Costain and Bollinger,
2010). Other mechanisms that have been proposed to induce aftershock diffusion is the
rate and state friction model (Dieterich, 1994; Marsan et al., 2000), a subcritical growth
mechanism (Huc and Main, 2003) or a cascade triggering of events that leads to the
expansion of the aftershock zone (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2002a; Helmstetter et al.,
2003).
Fluid diffusion as a likely mechanism for triggering earthquake swarms has been
reported in numerous studies (e.g., Kisslinger, 1975; Yamashita, 1999; Parotidis et al.,
2005). Such a process is often assumed to be caused by an intrusion of fluids into a
fluid saturated seismogenic zone (Hainzl and Fischer, 2002). The diffusion of the pore-
pressure through the fractures and faults that act as conduits can decrease their effective
strength (Eq.6.1) and trigger earthquake swarm sequences, which are characterized by
the strong clustering of events in time and space and can neither be described by a
dominant earthquake nor by the Omori scaling relation (Eq.2.12) known in aftershock
sequences (Hainzl, 2003). Characteristic cases can be drawn from volcanic earthquake
swarms, where the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity is consistent with the
intrusion and movement of magma (e.g., Hough et al., 2000; Yukutake et al., 2011).
Other cases can be found in geothermal regions (Parotidis et al., 2005; Kato et al.,
2010), fluid injection experiments (Shapiro et al., 2002) and other seismogenic regions
(Bourouis and Cornet, 2009; Bisrat et al., 2012).
In the present chapter, the earthquake diffusion properties in the Corinth Rift are studied
for two earthquake sequences. The first one refers to the 2010 Efpalion aftershock
sequence that has been associated with coseismic stress transfer due to the occurrence
of the two strong Efpalion earthquakes (Karakostas et al., 2012; Ganas et al., 2013).
The second case is the 2001 Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence that has been
associated with fluid diffusion at depth (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010). The
spatiotemporal scaling properties of the two sequences are studied in terms of non-
extensive statistical mechanics and the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW)
175
theory that represents one of the main physical theories for the occurrence of anomalous
non-Gaussian diffusion in highly heterogeneous media (Bouchaud and Georges, 1990;
Berkowitz and Scher, 1998). In the following sections, an overview to the CTRW
approach to earthquake diffusion is initially provided, followed by the analysis and
discussion of the diffusion properties of the two earthquake sequences.
6.2 Continuous Time Random Walk approach to earthquake

diffusion
The Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model was introduced by Montroll and
Weiss (1965) as a generalization of the simple random walk model, where the walker
jumps by ± 1 spatial step on a discrete lattice at each time step. The CTRW model
considers a random walker, which starts on the origin (x0 = 0) at time t0 = 0. The walker
stays fixed to this position until time t1, where he makes a jump of length r1 to the
position x1. He then stays at this position until time t2 (t2 > t1), when he jumps to a new
location x2 of length r2 from the previous one  r2  x2  x1  and the process is renewed.
In the CTRW model the spatial step or jump of the walker r, as well as the time step or
the waiting time between the successive jumps τ, are drawn from a joint probability
density function (pdf) ψ(r, τ), which is usually called the jump pdf. In the present
overview of the CTRW theory, the jump lengths and waiting times are considered as
independent random variables that correspond to the decoupled form of the jump pdf
  r,        r  .
From ψ(r, τ), the jump length pdf λ(r) and the waiting time pdf  (τ) can be deduced as
(Metzler and Klafter, 2000):

 (r )   d (r , ) (6.2)
0
and

 ( )   dr (r, ) .

(6.3)
176
According to the previous, λ(r)dr produces the probability for a jump length in the
interval (r, r+dr) and  (τ)dτ the probability for a waiting time in the interval (τ, τ +dτ).
Different types of CTRW processes can now be distinguished according to the

characteristic waiting time T:

T   d ( ) (6.4)
0
and the jump length variance Σ2:

2   dr (r )r
2
. (6.5)

If both are finite, over a long time limit the CTRW corresponds to Brownian motion
(Metzler and Klafter, 2000). Let’s now assume that λ(r) and  (τ) have a power-law
asymptotic behavior:
(6.6)
and
. (6.7)
The cumulative distributions of λ(r) and  (τ) are given respectively by:

( r )    (r )dr r  (6.8)
0

(  )    ( )d   . (6.9)
0
For μ ≥ 2 and β ≥ 1, the characteristic waiting time and the jump length variance are
finite and the standard diffusion case (Brownian diffusion) is recovered. If β ≥ 1 and μ
< 2, the variance r 2  2 is infinite. This regime of long jumps corresponds to the so-
called Lévy flights and super-diffusion. If μ ≥ 2 and 0 < β < 1, the characteristic waiting
time is infinite and the waiting time pdf exhibits a broad distribution with asymptotic
177
power-law behavior. This regime corresponds to sub-diffusion (Bouchaud and

Georges, 1990).
One of the objectives in CTRW theory is to estimate p(x,t), the probability distribution
of the walker being at position x at time t in arbitrary dimensions (1-D, 2-D or 3-D). In
the case of normal diffusion, the pdf p(x,t) is governed by the diffusion equation20 (1-
D case):
p 2
 D 2 p ( x, t ) , (6.10)
t x
where D is the diffusion coefficient. The diffusion equation (6.10) is a direct outcome
of the central limit theorem and its solution at long timescales for the initial condition
p  x,0     x  , where δ(x) is the Dirac’s delta function, is the Gaussian distribution
(e.g., Bouchaud and Georges, 1990). In this case, the mean squared displacement (or
variance) depends linearly on time:
x 2 (t )  Dt . (6.11)
Instead, the hallmark of anomalous diffusion is the non-linear growth of the mean
squared displacement with time. Many functions of x 2 (t ) exist (e.g., Hughes, 1995),
but a very frequent one is the function:
, (6.12)
which is found to describe a wide class of complex systems (e.g., Bouchaud and
Georges, 1990; Shlesinger et al., 1993) and earthquake diffusion (Marsan et al., 2000,
Huc and Main, 2003; Helmstetter et al., 2003) 21 . The latter equation manifests
anomalous diffusion and is connected with the breakdown of the central limit theorem,
caused by broad probability distributions and long-range correlations (Metzler and
Klafter, 2000). Thus, these properties lead to non-Gaussian propagation of the walker
20
The diffusion equation (6.10) corresponds to the so-called heat equation and is connected to
diffusion and Brownian motion through the Fokker-Planck equation (e.g., Hughes, 1995).
21
Following these studies, the anomalous diffusion exponent is here denoted as H.
178
with time. The anomalous diffusion exponent H in Eq.6.12 characterizes the different
domains of anomalous diffusion. For H > 0.5 the transport is super-diffusive, for 0 < H
< 0.5 it is sub-diffusive and for H = 0.5 normal diffusion is recovered. In the case of
seismicity, the diffusion exponent H provides a quantitative measure of the rate of
triggered earthquake diffusion (McKernon and Main, 2005). The average properties of
the percolation of stress outward from a triggering event can partly control the diffusion
of triggered seismicity and as such H can also be thought of as an indicator of a possibly
stress-related diffusive process (Marsan et al., 2000; McKernon and Main, 2005).
In the anomalous diffusion case, the pdf p(x,t), also called the propagator, has been
approximated by various models, including CTRW models and fractional equations
(Metzler and Klafter, 2000; 2004) or non-extensive statistical mechanics (Tsallis and
Bukman, 1996; Borland, 1998; Tsallis 2009a). These approximations are out of the
scope of the present thesis and the following analysis is focused on the spatio-temporal
scaling properties of seismicity and the mean squared displacement (Eq.6.12) in order
to describe the characteristics of earthquake diffusion in the Corinth Rift.
6.3 The 2010 Efpalion earthquakes
On January 18, 2010 a strong earthquake (Mw = 5.1, NOA), followed four days later by
another strong event (Mw = 5.1, NOA) and numerous aftershocks, occurred in the West
Corinth Rift near the city of Efpalion (Fig.6.1). These two events were the strongest
earthquakes in the area since the 1995 Aigion earthquake (Ms = 6.2). Focal mechanism
solutions for the two strong events indicated the activation of two normal fault planes
of an approximately E-W direction (Sokos et al., 2012; Karakostas et al., 2012). Slip
vector directions for the two strong events and the aftershocks have a NNW-SSE to
NNE-SSW orientation that is almost parallel to the direction of extension in the Corinth
Rift (Karakostas et al., 2012).
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Figure 6.1: Spatial distribution of the 2010 Efpalion earthquake sequence (earthquake
catalogue from Karakostas et al., 2012). The two stars indicate the location of the two
strong events. Red and white colors indicate the first and second strong events and their
aftershocks, respectively. The faults are after Fig.3.11.
The spatial distribution of the Efpalion earthquake sequence, for the period January 18,
2010 – March 9, 2010, is shown in Fig.6.1. The earthquake dataset is from the work of
Karakostas et al. (2012) and has 587 events for the 50 days period after the first strong
event, with earthquake magnitudes down to M = 1.5. Karakostas et al. (2012) used the
P- and S-wave recordings from the HUSN network to relocate the events and to compile
the earthquake catalogue that is shown in Fig.6.1. The mean horizontal error of the
relocated events is equal to 1.42 km and the mean vertical error 1.51 km.
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a)
b)
Figure 6.2: Coulomb stress changes due to the coseismic slip a) of the first main shock
and b) of the second strong event. White and black solid lines represent the fault traces,
associated with the first and second strong events respectively in a) and vice versa in
b). The second strong event and most of the aftershocks are located inside the positive
Coulomb stress changes (~ 10 bars) (red areas) (from Karakostas et al., 2012).
181
The spatial distribution of the relocated events indicates an E-W striking active zone of
about 15 km total length in the NW part of the Corinth Rift (Fig.6.1) (Karakostas et al.,
2012). After the occurrence of the first strong event on January 18th the earthquake
activity propagates to the eastern part of the active zone, in the epicentral area of the
second strong event (Fig.6.1), which occurred 4 days later on January 22 nd. After the
occurrence of the second strong event, the aftershock activity continues to be higher in
the eastern part of the active zone and after several days a cluster of events appear to
the west of the first strong event, defining the westernmost part of the active aftershock
zone (Fig.6.1). Fault plane solutions for all events and the spatial distribution of
aftershocks indicate the activation of multiple fault segments at depths of 7 – 11 km
(Karakostas et al., 2012; Ganas et al., 2013).
The static stress transfer due to the occurrence of the first strong event was calculated
by Karakostas et al. (2012), Sokos et al. (2012) and Ganas et al. (2013) by using the
change in the Coulomb failure function (Eq.6.1). In Fig.6.2 the Coulomb stress changes
due to the coseismic slip of the two strong events are shown after Karakostas et al.
(2012). The analysis indicated that the second strong event and most of the aftershocks
that followed the first strong event occurred in the zone of positive Coulomb changes,
which take values up to ~ 10 bars (Fig.6.2a). The latter implies that the static stress
transfer due to the occurrence of the first strong event could have triggered the second
strong event and most of the aftershocks, in accordance with the conclusions of Sokos
et al. (2012) and Ganas et al. (2013). After the occurrence of the second strong event,
aftershocks in the western part of the active zone occurred in the positive Coulomb
changes zone (≥ 0.1 bar) (Fig.6.2b). The correlation between the Coulomb stress
changes and the spatial distribution of the aftershocks supports the cascade triggering
of events after the occurrence of the first strong event (Karakostas et al., 2012).
6.3.1 Spatiotemporal scaling properties
In the case of seismicity, the jump lengths r and the waiting times τ of the random
walker correspond to the inter-event distances r and times τ between successive
earthquakes. The inter-event times τ were defined in § 5.2, whereas the inter-event
distances r are defined as the 3-D distances between the successive events r  xi 1  xi
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(i = 1, 2,...,N-1, with N the total number of events), where xi is the location of the ith
event, given by its longitude, latitude and depth. Rather than calculating the distance
between two points in the Earth’s crust by using simple trigonometry and the
Pythagorean theorem, the curvature of the Earth is taken in account and the Vincenty’s
formula (Vincenty, 1975), which considers the shape of the Earth as an oblate spheroid,
was used to calculate the distances between successive events (specified by their
longitudes and latitudes) on the surface of the spheroid. The 3-D distances were then
obtained by using simple trigonometry. The Matlab® script for calculating the distance
between two points in the surface of a spheroid according to the Vincenty’s formula is
provided in Appendix C.
The cumulative distributions of inter-event times P(>τ) and distances P(>r) for the
Efpalion earthquake sequence are shown in Fig.6.3 and Fig.6.4 respectively. The inter-
event times and distances were calculated from the relocated earthquake catalogue of
Karakostas et al. (2012). The cumulative distribution is here preferred to the probability
distribution because for a relative small number of events, as in the case of the Efaplion
earthquake sequence, it produces smoother trends in the distribution. Furthermore, the
scaling properties of P(>τ) and P(>r) can directly be compared to Λ(>r) and Φ(>τ),
given in Eq.6.8 and Eq.6.9 respectively, in order to characterize the diffusion regime,
based on the spatio-temporal scaling properties of the sequence. P(>τ) and P(>r) are
fitted to Eq.2.46 that for τ and r reads as:
2  q
   1q
P(  )  1  1  q   (6.13)
 0 
and
2  qr
 r  1qr
P( r )  1  1  qr   . (6.14)
 r0 
Eq.6.13 and Eq.6.14 optimize the non-additive entropy Sq (Eq.2.35) for the inter-event
times and distances, as it was described in § 2.6.2. The fitting procedure follows the
nonlinear least-square algorithm that was described in § 3.5.1 and § 4.4.2. Eq.6.13
provides a good fit to the majority of the observed inter-event times (up to τ = 0.6 days)
for the values of qτ = 1.55 ±0.03 and τ0 = 0.006 ±0.0005 days (Fig.6.3). For τ > 0.6 days
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a “fall-off” in P(>τ) appears that can be attributed to finite size effects in the inter-event
times of the sequence. In the case of P(>r), Eq.6.14 provides a good fit to the full range
of the observed inter-event distances for the values of qr = 0.55 ±0.02 and r0 = 7.2 ±0.3
km (Fig.6.4).
Figure 6.3: The cumulative distribution of inter-event times P(>τ) for the Efpalion
earthquake sequence. The solid line represents Eq.6.13 for the values of qτ = 1.55 ±0.03
and τ0 = 0.006 ±0.0005 days.
Scaling of P(>τ) and P(>r) according to Eq.6.13 and Eq.6.14 respectively indicates
2 q
1 q
asymptotic power-law scaling according to ~ x . For the q-values of qτ = 1.55 and qr
= 0.55 found previously, the latter indicates that inter-event times scale asymptotically
as ~  0.82 and inter-event distances as ~ r 3.22 . When compared with Eq.6.8 and
Eq.6.9, the power-law exponents found for the inter-event times and distances
correspond to the regime of μ ≥ 2 and 0 < β < 1, which indicates an anomalous sub-
diffusive process in the spatiotemporal evolution of the Efpalion earthquake sequence.
184
Figure 6.4: The cumulative distribution of inter-event distances P(>r) for the Efpalion
earthquake sequence. The solid line represents Eq.6.14 for the values of qr = 0.55 ±0.02
and r0 = 7.2 ±0.3 km.
6.3.2 Aftershock diffusion
The earthquake sequence is now considered as a CTRW, which starts on the first strong
event (x0 = 0) at time t0 = 0. After time equal to τ1, the walker makes a jump of length
r1 to the location of the second event of the sequence (x1, t1), after time equal to τ2 he
jumps to the third event of the sequence (x2, t2) and so on. For the ith event and after
time ti, the walker is at distance xi from the origin. By calculating the 3-D distances and
times of all the events from the origin (first strong event), the mean squared
displacement x 2 over the course of time t is estimated and plotted in Fig.6.5. After
the occurrence of the first strong event, the mean squared displacement remains almost
constant with time and the aftershock zone does not diffuse. With respect to Eq.6.12,
the diffusion exponent is H = 0. Then, the second strong event is considered at the
origin (x0 = 0, t0 = 0) and the mean squared displacement x 2 of all the events that
followed this event was estimated and plotted with time t (Fig.6.5). In this case, the
mean squared displacement grows as a power-law with time, with a power-law
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exponent equal to 0.165 ±0.015. With respect to Eq.6.12, the diffusion exponent in this
case is H = 0.083. The latter indicates the slow migration of the aftershock zone after
the occurrence of the second strong event. For H < 0.5, this process corresponds to
anomalous diffusion and the sub-diffusive regime.
Figure 6.5: The mean squared displacement x 2 (in km) from the first strong event
(triangles) and the second strong event (circles) of their respective subsequent
seismicity over the course of time t (in days) on log-log axes.
6.3.3 Discussion
The cumulative distributions of inter-event times P(>τ) and distances P(>r) of the
Efpalion earthquake sequence are well described by Eq.6.13 and Eq.6.14 respectively,
indicating asymptotic power-law behavior and long-range correlations in the
spatiotemporal evolution of the sequence. The q-values of qτ = 1.55 and qr = 0.55 found
from the analysis indicate that inter-event times scale asymptotically as ~  0.82 and
inter-event distances as ~ r 3.22 . In terms of the CTRW approach, these power-law
exponents indicate a finite jump length variance (Eq.6.5) and an infinite characteristic
186
waiting time (Eq.6.6), which correspond to the anomalous diffusion regime and sub-
diffusion. Furthermore, the q-values of qτ > 1 and qr < 1 are in agreement with the qτ
and qr values found for the Aigion aftershock sequence (Vallianatos et al., 2012b), for
the spatio-temporal scaling properties of seismicity in California and Japan (Abe and
Suzuki, 2003; 2005), for global seismicity (Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2013), for Iran
(Darooneh and Dadashinia, 2008) and for the Hellenic Subduction Zone (Papadakis et
al., 2013) (§ 2.6.3.1 and Table 2.1).
The mean squared displacement of the aftershock zone remains almost constant with
time (Fig.6.5), indicating a non-diffusing zone with diffusion exponent H = 0, if the
first strong event is considered to be the origin. When the second event is considered to
be the origin, the mean squared displacement grows as a power-law with time (Fig.6.5),
with diffusion exponent H = 0.083. The latter indicates that after the occurrence of the
second strong event the aftershock zone migrates slowly with time, which corresponds
to a slow sub-diffusive process. In previous studies, a slow sub-diffusive process has
been found in earthquake diffusion in California (H < 0.1, Helmstetter et al., 2003), in
global earthquake triggering (H < 0.1, Huc and Main, 2003; H ≤ 0.4, Marsan and Bean,
2003), in mining-induced seismicity (H = 0.18, Marsan et al., 1999) and various other
earthquake sequences (Marsan et al., 2000; McKernon and Main, 2005; Marsan and
Lengliné, 2008). The similarity between results from the Efpalion earthquake sequence
and the other earthquake sequences imply that the relaxation process of the crust due to
a stress perturbation depends non-linearly on the perturbation, which is in this case
characterized by the two strong events.
In addition, by performing numerical simulations on the ETAS model, Helmstetter and

Sornette (2002a; 2002b) suggested that aftershock diffusion should only be observed
for an Omori exponent of p < 1 (Eq.2.12), where p = 1 marks the existence of a cascade
triggering of events, which is the mechanism at the origin of diffusion in the ETAS
model (§ 2.3.4). For the Efpalion earthquake sequence, the aftershock production rate
n(t) decays according to the modified Omori formula (Eq.2.12) for the values of p =
0.95, K = 88.4 and c = 0.321, after the first strong event and for p = 0.84, K = 52.93 and
c = 0.128, after the second strong event (Fig.6.6). The parameters of the modified
Omori formula were estimated by the maximum likelihood procedure (Ogata, 1983).
The ZMAP software, which includes a set of scripts written in Matlab® (Wiemer, 2001),
187
was used to perform the analysis. In Fig.6.6, the cumulative number of events N(t) is
shown as a function of time from the first strong event. The modified Omori formula
for this case, where the cumulative number of events N(t) is considered, reads as (Utsu
et al., 1995):
t
N (t )   n(t )dt  K c1 p   t  c    p  1 ,
1 p
for p  1
 
0
t
N (t )   n(t )dt  K ln  t c  1, for p  1 . (6.15)
0
600
Cumulative number of aftershocks
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time [Days after mainshock]
Figure 6.6: The cumulative number of aftershocks (black circles) as a function of time
(in days) after the first strong event. The red solid line corresponds to the modified
Omori formula (Eq.6.15), for the values of p = 0.95, K = 88.4 and c = 0.321, after the
first strong event and for p = 0.84, K = 52.93 and c = 0.128, after the second strong
event. The star indicates the time of occurrence of the second strong event.
In the Efpalion earthquake sequence the sub-diffusion of the aftershock zone after the
occurrence of the second strong event (Fig.6.5) and the correlation between the positive
188
Coulomb stress changes and the spatial distribution of aftershocks (Fig.6.2b) imply that
the anomalous diffusion of the aftershock zone can be related to a stress diffusion
process. The initial stress perturbation due to the occurrence of the first strong event
activated the fault segment to the east, where the second strong event occurred four
days later. No diffusion is observed at this stage (Fig.6.5), where the Omori exponent
is p ≈ 1. After the occurrence of the second strong event, the sub-diffusion of the
aftershock zone can be related to the slow spatial relaxation of the stress perturbation,
as aftershocks occurred at greater distances and preferantially in the positive Coulomb
stress zones (Fig.6.2b), activating the fault segment further to the west. At this latter
stage, the Omori exponent is p < 1, which, when compared with the ETAS simulations
(Helmstetter and Sornette, 2002a; 2002b), suggests a cascade of triggering events in
the evolution of the sequence.
6.4 The 2001 Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence
The 2001 Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence occurred in the SW part of the
Corinth Rift, near the city of Aigion (Fig.6.7). The sequence initiated on March 28,
2001 when a sudden increase in the seismicity rate in the area occurred and involved
more than 2900 events over a period of 100 days (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010).
The largest event of the sequence was the Mw = 4.3 Agios Ioannis earthquake that
occurred on April 8, 2001 (Fig.6.7). The focal mechanism of this event indicated
normal faulting with a strong strike-slip component (Fig.6.7; Zahradnik et al., 2004).
The spatial distribution of the sequence and the focal mechanism of the Agios Ioannis
earthquake indicated the activation of a SW-NE fault plane dipping at ~40° to the
northwest (Lyon-Caen et al., 2004), which coincides with the unexposed Kerinitis fault
that strikes 230°N and dips at 40°NW (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010).
The Agios Ioannis earthquake sequence developed as a swarm, characterized by the

absence of any dominant strong event and of an Omori regime that characterizes the
decay rate of aftershock sequences (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010). Pacchiani and
Lyon-Caen (2010) relocated the earthquake sequence in order to achieve a high spatial
resolution for the overall swarm. Following the relocated earthquake catalogue of
Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen that has 863 events for a 60 day period, the 3-D spatial
189
distribution of the Agios Ioannis sequence and its temporal evolution are shown in
Fig.6.8. The spatio-temporal evolution of the sequence shown in Fig.6.8 indicates that
seismicity migrated along the active fault plane towards the surface at a speed of ~20
m/day (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010).
Figure 6.7: Map of the Western Corinth Rift showing the 2001 seismicity (from
Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010). The south cluster of events corresponds to the 2001
Agios Ioannis swarm sequence. The green star to the south indicates the Mw = 4.3 Agios
Ioannis earthquake that occurred on April 8, 2001. The focal mechanism for this event
is after Zahradnik et al. (2004). The green star to the north indicates the epicenter of the
1995 Aigion earthquake (Ms = 6.2). Yellow symbols indicate the CRLN stations.
Furthermore, Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen (2010) investigated the possible involvement

of fluid flow in the evolution of the sequence by comparing its spatiotemporal evolution
to the pore-pressure diffusion model of Shapiro et al. (1997), which for an isotropic and
homogeneous medium reads as:
190
x  4 Dt , (6.16)
where x is the radius of the pore-pressure triggering front, t is the time since the
initiation of the process and D the hydraulic diffusivity. Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen
(2010) found a good agreement between the data and the pore-pressure diffusion model
(Eq.6.16), which suggests the involvement of a pore-pressure diffusion process in the
evolution of the sequence. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the possible pore-
pressure perturbation did not initiate at the deepest point of the active fault plane but
rather at some point near the early events of the sequence.
Figure 6.8: The 3-D spatial distribution of the Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm
sequence. The color bar indicates the temporal occurrence of the events, counting in
days from 1/1/2001. The surface projection of the events is also shown at the top of the
figure.
6.4.1 Spatiotemporal scaling properties
191
The spatiotemporal scaling properties of the 2001 Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm
sequence are studied for the inter-event times and distances, by using the relocated
earthquake catalogue of Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen (2010). The cumulative distribution
functions of the inter-event times P(>τ) and the inter-event distances P(>r) of the
sequence are shown in Fig.6.9 and Fig.6.10 respectively. P(>τ) is fitted according to
Eq.6.13 and P(>r) according to Eq.6.14, following the same procedure as previously
for the Efpalion earthquake sequence. Eq.6.13 provides a good fit to the observed P(>τ),
for the values of qτ = 1.52 ±0.02 and τ0 = 0.008 ±0.0007 hours (Fig.6.9). P(>r) is well
described by Eq.6.14, for the values of qr = 0.76 ±0.01 and r0 = 1.5 ±0.13 km (Fig.6.10).
Figure 6.9: Cumulative distribution function P(>τ) of the inter-event times τ for the
Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence and the corresponding fit according to
Eq.6.13, for the values of qτ = 1.52 and τ0 = 0.008 hours.
As in the case of the Efpalion earthquake sequence, the cumulative distribution of the
inter-event times and distances for the Agios Ioannis swarm sequence are well
described by Eq.6.13 and Eq.6.14 respectively, for q-values of qτ > 1 and qr < 1. The
latter indicates a correlated process in time and space that deviates from the random
case and the exponential distribution. The good agreement between the observed P(>τ)
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and P(>r) and Eq.6.13 and Eq.6.14 respectively, indicate that inter-event times and
2 q
distances exhibit asymptotic power-law scaling according to ~ x 1 q . For the q-values

of qτ = 1.52 and qr = 0.76 found from the analysis, the latter indicates that inter-event
times scale asymptotically as ~  0.92 and inter-event distances as ~ r 5.2 . Comparing
with Eq.6.8 and Eq.6.9 and in terms of the CTRW approach, the latter power-law
exponents correspond to the regime of μ ≥ 2 and 0 < β < 1, which indicates an
anomalous sub-diffusive process in the spatiotemporal evolution of the Agios Ionnis
swarm sequence.
Figure 6.10: Cumulative distribution function P(>r) of the inter-event distances r for
the Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence and the corresponding fit according to
Eq.6.14, for the values of qr = 0.76 and r0 = 1.5 km.
6.4.2 Diffusion of the swarm sequence
The diffusion properties of the swarm sequence are studied in terms of the CTRW
approach, following the same procedure as for the Efpalion earthquake sequence. The
first event of the sequence is considered to be the origin (x0 = 0, t0 = 0) and the mean
squared displacement x 2 is calculated from the 3-D distances between all the events
193
and the origin. The mean squared displacement over the course of time is shown in
Fig.6.11. The mean squared displacement grows approximately as a power-law with
time, with a power-law exponent equal to 0.37 ±0.043, which, when compared with
Eq.6.12, indicates a diffusion exponent of H ≈ 0.185. The latter value of H < 0.5
corresponds to anomalous diffusion and the sub-diffusive regime and indicates the slow
migration of the swarm sequence away from the early events.
2
Figure 6.11: The mean squared displacement x (in km) of the earthquake swarm
sequence over the course of time t (in days) on log-log axes, with the first event of the
sequence at the origin.
6.4.3 Discussion
The analysis of the spatiotemporal scaling properties of the Agios Ioannis earthquake
swarm sequence and the good agreement between the observed cumulative distribution
functions of the inter-event times and distances and the NESP models of Eq.6.13 and
Eq.6.14 indicate asymptotic power-law behavior and spatio-temporal long-range
194
correlations in the evolution of the sequence. The q-values of qτ > 1 and qr < 1 are in
agreement with those of the Efpalion earthquake sequence and with those presented in
Table 2.1. In terms of the CTRW approach, the power-law exponents found for the
inter-event times and distances indicate an infinite characteristic waiting time (Eq.6.6)
and a finite jump length variance (Eq.6.5) that correspond to the anomalous diffusion
regime and sub-diffusion.
The mean squared displacement x 2 of the sequence scales approximately as a power-
law with time according to ~ t 0.37 , which corresponds to the diffusion exponent of H
≈ 0.185 (Eq.6.12). The latter indicates an anomalous diffusion process and the sub-
diffusion of the sequence. These results are in agreement with the hypothesis of pore-
pressure diffusion as the triggering mechanism of the sequence (Pacchiani and Lyon-
Caen, 2010). An initial pore-pressure perturbation in the vicinity of the early events and
a sub-diffusive pore-pressure relaxation process through the active fault plane, which
can act as a conduit, could have triggered the earthquake swarm and the slow sub-
diffusion of the sequence towards the surface.
195
Chapter 7
Discussion
7.1 Summary of the Results
In the present thesis, the scaling properties of fault and earthquake populations in the
Corinth Rift were studied by using statistical mechanics and the generalized statistical
mechanics framework, termed as non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM). NESM
presents a novel approach to the study of fracturing processes and earthquakes. The
results of the thesis support the idea that NESM is an appropriate methodological tool
to apply to the collective properties of fault and earthquake populations in terms of
probabilities, based on the specification of the relevant microscopic states and their
interactions. In the following I set the work in context. I summarize the results of the
thesis and discuss the implications that arise for fault growth and the fault network
evolution in the Rift in section § 7.2.1. The insights gained from the analysis of
earthquake physics and the evolution of seismicity in the Rift are discussed in section
§ 7.2.2. Finally, the implications for earthquake hazard assessment and future paths for
research, based on the insights of the thesis, are discussed in sections § 7.2.3 and § 7.3,
respectively.
Central to the generalized statistical mechanics approach that was followed in the thesis
is the non-additive entropy Sq (Tsallis, 1988), rewritten here in its integral form for
reference:
Chapter 7 Discussion

1   p q  X  dX
Sq  k 0
. (7.1)
q 1
The main advantage of Sq is that it considers all-length scale correlations among the
elements of a system, leading to asymptotic power-law behavior and it converges to the
classic Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy SBGS in the particular case of q  1 . Thus,
by optimizing Sq under the appropriate constraints (§ 2.6.2), a range of asymptotic
power-law to exponential-like distributions are obtained for the various values of q.
This approach was followed in Chapter 3, in the study of the cumulative distribution
function of fault trace-lengths N(>L) in the Rift. Based on published fault maps for the
area, a comprehensive dataset of the fault network was compiled (Fig.3.11 and
Appendix A) and the digital elevation model (DEM) of Google Earth was used to
achieve maximum precision of the fault traces on surface (§ 3.3.1). The NESM based
analysis indicated that the scaling properties of the complete fault dataset and the
various subsets in the different strain regimes (§ 3.2.3) are well described in the full-
range of values by the cumulative distribution function (Eq. 3.3) that optimizes Sq, for
various q-values in the range of 1 (exponential) to 1.22. In addition, an analysis of
synthetic fault datasets was carried out in order to test the sensitivity of the estimated
q-values on missing data (§ 3.5.6). The analysis showed a remarkable stability in the
scaling behavior of the subsets in the case of 90% missing data, with q varying ±0.03
from the original q-value that the data were generated from. For 99.9% of missing data,
the variation of the estimated q-values increases to ±0.1 from the original q-value.
In previous studies, the q-value of q = 1.16 was found by Vallianatos et al. (2011a) for
N(>L) in Crete, Greece, the q-values of q = 1.75 and q = 1.10 for linked and independent
faults, respectively in Valles Marineris, Mars (Vallianatos and Sammonds, 2011) and
the q-values of q = 1.114 and q = 1.277 for thrust (compressional) and normal
(extensional) faults in Mars, respectively (Vallianatos, 2013a). The results of these
studies and those presented here imply that the scaling properties of fault systems are
universally characterized by q-values of q ≥ 1. The various q-values found in these
studies correspond well to the physical properties of faults, i.e. linked versus
independent, or thrust versus normal faults. In the Corinth Rift, analysis in the different
strain regimes indicated that the q-value variations are associated with brittle strain in
197
the Earth’s crust. N(>L) in the eastern low-strain zone exhibits asymptotic power-law
behavior, with q = 1.22, in comparison to exponential-like scaling in N(>L) of the
western and central high-strain zones, where q approaches unity. Such transition has
previously been observed to be a function of increasing strain in numerical models
(Spyropoulos et al., 2002; Hardacre and Cowie, 2003), laboratory experiments
(Spyropoulos et al., 1999; Ackermann et al., 2001) and in the fault populations of the
Afar Rift (Gupta and Scholtz, 2000a). The results found for the Corinth Rift provide
further evidence for such transition in a single tectonic setting.
In addition, these results show that scaling analyses of natural fault systems must be
carried out with caution, as the scaling behavior of the complete system can be a
mixture of distributions of distinctive subsets with different physical properties.
Bimodal distributions with two power-law segments have been found by Wojtal (1994;
1996), Ackermann and Schlische (1997) and by Zygouri et al. (2008) for the active
fault system in the Corinth Rift. These distributions can simply resemble fault
populations with different physical properties in the same tectonic setting.
The collective properties of earthquakes were studied in Chapters 4 – 6, for various

earthquake catalogues, time periods and spatial scales. In particular, in Chapter 4 the
frequency-size distribution of earthquakes in the Rift was studied for an almost 50 year
period of recorded seismicity. The analysis was carried out by using the empirical
Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) scaling relation (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944) and the
NESM formulation of the fragment-asperity (F-A) model (Sotolongo-Costa and
Posadas, 2004; Telesca, 2012). Considering the magnitude of M0 = 3.8 as the minimum
magnitude for the analysis, the G-R scaling relation yields the b-value of b = 1.18
±0.043 and the F-A model the q-value of qE = 1.477 ±0.013. The analysis for various
M0 showed the strong dependence of b on the initial selection of M0, in contrast to qE,
which remains quite stable irrespective of M0. This is quite an important aspect in
earthquake hazard assessments, as more reliable estimations of the scaling behavior of
the earthquake-size distribution in a region can be made with the F-A model and the
expected seismicity rates can be estimated more rigorously. By using the results of the
F-A model, a recurrence period of 15.3 ±3.8 years for an M = 6 earthquake was
estimated, which is in agreement to the 320 year seismicity rates in the Rift.
198
The temporal properties of seismicity in the Rift were studied in Chapter 5 by looking
into the inter-event time series, which expresses the time intervals between successive
earthquakes. The analysis showed that the probability densities of inter-event times
exhibit scaling behavior and a crossover between two power-law regimes at both short
and long inter-event times. The latter indicates clustering effects at all timescales,
similar to the previous results of Kagan and Jackson (1991), for various earthquake
catalogues and of Corral (2003), for the Southern California. By rescaling inter-event
times with the mean seismicity rate, the rescaled probability densities, for various time
periods, threshold magnitudes and spatial scales approximately fall onto a unique curve
that is well described for over eight orders of magnitude by the q-generalized gamma
distribution (Eq.5.2). The q-generalized gamma distribution presents two power-law
regimes and memory effects at all timescales and reduces to the ordinary gamma
distribution for q→1. It was further shown (§ 5.3.2) that the q-generalized gamma
distribution can be derived for non-stationary earthquake time series by using the
stochastic dynamic mechanism with memory effects, introduced by Queiros (2005).
Furthermore, multifractal analysis on the earthquake time series indicated a multifractal
temporal structure and clustering variability, which can be associated with periods of
high and low earthquake activity in the Rift and the earthquake clusters that are active
in each time period.
In Chapter 6, earthquake diffusion phenomena were studied for two cases of triggered
seismicity in the Rift. The first was the aftershock sequence that was triggered by the
two 2010 Efpalion strong events (Karakostas et al., 2012) and the second the 2001
Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence that has been associated with fluid diffusion
at depth (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010). The diffusion properties of the two
sequences were studied in terms of NESM and the continuous time random walk
(CTRW) theory. The spatiotemporal scaling properties of both sequences are well
described by the q-exponential distribution that optimizes Sq (Eq.7.1), for q-values that
in terms of the CTRW theory correspond to the sub-diffusion regime. The mean squared
displacements of the two sequences with time indicated non-linear power-law
dependence, which is the hallmark of anomalous diffusion. The estimated diffusion
exponents indicate a slow sub-diffusive process in the spatiotemporal evolution of
seismicity. In the case of the Efpalion earthquake sequence, such a process can be
related to the slow spatial relaxation of the stress perturbation triggered by the
199
occurrence of the second strong event. The Omori exponent of p < 1, found for the
aftershock sequence that followed the second strong event, suggests a cascade of
triggering events in the evolution of the sequence (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2002a). In
the case of the Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence, the slow migration of the
earthquake zone with time is consistent with the hypothesis of a sub-diffusive pore-
pressure relaxation process that propagates along the active fault plane.
7.2 Wider Implications
7.2.1 Implications for fault growth and fault network evolution
The results found from the analysis in the different strain zones of the Rift were
summarized in Fig.3.22. This is reproduced here as Fig.7.1. The observed properties
indicate that with increasing strain the number of faults decreases and the average fault-
length of the population increases as faults start to coalesce forming larger structures
and the distribution turns to exponential (Fig.7.1). In analogy to the main stages of fault
population evolution, these properties suggest fracture saturation in the central and
western high-strain zones of the Rift, where faults grow by linkage rather than
nucleation or growth. In the eastern low-strain zone, the greater number of small faults
and the asymptotic power-law behavior of the cumulative fault-length distribution
suggest that nucleation and growth may still dominate over coalescence, leading to
scale-invariant fault growth. Similar properties were also observed in the case where
the currently active (high strain rate setting) and inactive (low strain rate setting) Rift
zones were considered (§ 3.5.4), suggesting fracture saturation in the currently active
zone.
Furthermore, the transition from asymptotic power-law to exponential-like scaling

suggest the suppression of long-range fault interactions with increasing strain (Cowie,
1998a; Ackermann et al., 2001). Such processes are predicted by the numerical model
of Cowie (1998b), which seems to match well the slip rate variations and the
localization of strain in the narrow offshore zone and the Perachora Peninsula during
the Late Quaternary (~0.7 Myr – present; Roberts et al., 2009; Leeder et al., 2012; Ford
et al., 2013). In particular, the stress feedback mechanism incorporated in the model of
Cowie (1998b) favors deformation on optimally oriented faults that fall into Coulomb
200
stress increase zones (e.g., King et al., 1994). Such a mechanism can lead to the
localization of strain on a few large faults that either coalesce to form larger structures
or increase their displacement rates to accommodate increasing strain. As deformation
progresses, these large structures span the brittle layer of the crust, their vertical growth
is restricted and new or pre-existing faults start to grow (Ackermann et al., 2001; Soliva
et al., 2006). Such a mechanism has been proposed by Poulimenos (2000), Cowie and
Roberts (2001) and Roberts et al. (2009) as a possible mechanism for the observed slip
rate variations in the Corinth Rift.
Figure 7.1: Summary of the observed properties in the different strain zones of the
Corinth Rift.
201
Other mechanisms that have been proposed for the localization of strain in continental
rifts are crustal rheology, heat fluxes or changes in regional strain rates (Cowie et al.,
2005; Bell and Jackson, 2015). As there is no evidence that such processes took place
in the Corinth Rift, the present results, summarized in Fig.7.1, rather suggest that fault
growth processes control the fault network evolution in the Rift. Higher strains in the
crust in the last ~2 Myr led the central and western zones to fracture saturation, the
suppression of long-range fault interactions, exponential scaling and progressive
localization of strain in the narrow offshore zone. This process can be more rapid in the
western zone, where the seismogenic depth is confined to narrower depths (Hatzfeld et
al., 2000). In the eastern low-strain zone, the asymptotic power-law scaling suggests
that the fault population has not reached saturation and distribution of strain is more
diffuse.
7.2.2 Implications for earthquake physics and the evolution of seismicity
The good agreement between the earthquake data in the Corinth Rift and the q-
exponential family of distributions that optimize the non-additive entropy Sq (Eq.7.1)
suggests that the latter may act as attractors for the earthquake populations. In support
of this hypothesis are also the results of the numerous studies on earthquake physics
and NESM, summarized in Tables 2.1 and 2.2 (§ 2.6.3). These types of distributions
are attractors for a wide class of complex non-equilibrium systems, as diverse as black
holes, living organisms, financial markets and optical lattices, among others (Tsallis,
2009b; 2013; 2014), indicating that earthquakes belong to the same universality class
as such systems!
Earthquake activity in the Corinth Rift is intermittent and evolves dynamically over
time as clusters of events, characterized by a range of fractal dimensions and
multifractality. The bimodality in the probability density of inter-events times and the
gradual crossover between two power-law regimes for short and long inter-events times
respectively, shown in Fig.5.10 and reproduced here as Fig.7.2, suggest that the
earthquake activity evolves as two processes. The first one is related to clustering
effects at short time scales, induced by aftershock sequences and earthquake swarms
202
Figure 7.2: Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the HUSN,
CRL and NOA datasets and for various time periods and threshold magnitudes. The
solid line represents the corresponding fit according to the q-generalized gamma
distribution (Eq.5.2) for the values of C = 0.4, β = 1.65, γ = 0.38 and q = 1.23. The
dashed line represents the corresponding fit according to the gamma distribution
and the second one to long-term clustering effects, related to the background activity.
Although clustering effects at all timescales imply memory in the seismogenic process,
similar to the conclusions of Livina et al. (2005) and Lennartz et al. (2008), a fraction
of uncorrelated and Poissonian distributed events in the Rift cannot be excluded. In
addition, the similar temporal patterns found for various earthquake catalogues, time
periods and threshold magnitudes and the almost perfect collapse of the rescaled inter-
event times onto an unique curve (Fig.7.2) indicate the self-similar temporal structure
of seismicity in the Rift.
Earthquake diffusion phenomena in the Rift can be associated with pore-pressure

diffusion in the seismogenic zone or to the diffusion of stress, induced by either static
transfer during seismic rupture or by a cascade of triggering events. The diffusion
characteristics would depend in the first case on the local distribution of fractures that
203
act as conduits for the crustal fluid movement, while in the second case on the local
distribution of asperities that act as barriers to the diffusion of stress. In either case, a
hierarchical spatio-temporal clustering of events can be generated that diffuses
according to the relaxation process of the perturbation. The low diffusion exponents
found for the two cases of triggered seismicity in the Rift and for other earthquake
sequences (Marsan et al., 2000; Huc and Main, 2003; Helmstetter et al., 2003) suggest
that the relaxation response of the highly heterogeneous crust to an initial perturbation
depends non-linearly on the perturbation.
7.2.3 Implications for earthquake hazard in the Rift
The Corinth Rift is one of the most seismically active areas in Europe and has
experienced many strong and destructive earthquakes in the past. Such earthquakes
with magnitude greater than 6 are estimated to occur every ~15 years in the area.
Although this average value can be quite useful for earthquake preparedness and the
estimated earthquake hazard in the area, it may only prove to be an ensemble of strong
earthquakes distributed irregularly in time. A characteristic case that depicts exactly
this is the 1981 Alkyonides earthquake sequence that hit the eastern part of the Rift
with three strong earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6 within a few hours and days.
Other implications that stem from the insights of the thesis refer to the spatio-temporal
properties of seismicity in the Rift. The probability densities of inter-event times, shown
in Fig.7.2, indicate that the probability of a subsequent earthquake is high immediately
after the occurrence of the previous one and decreases slowly thereafter. The temporal
clustering effects further suggest that short inter-event times are more likely to be
followed by short ones and long inter-event times by long ones. Such type of behavior
implies that the longer it had been since the last earthquake, the longer it will be until
the next one, referred to as “the paradox of the expected time until the next earthquake”
by Sornette and Knopoff (1997). Furthermore, the almost perfect collapse of the
rescaled inter-event time distributions onto a unique curve (Fig.7.2) implies that in
earthquake hazard assessments the probability density of inter-event times p(τ) in the
Rift can be estimated as p( )  Rf T  , where R is the mean seismic rate and f(T) the
204
scaling function that is well approximated by the q-generalized gamma distribution

shown in Fig.7.2.
7.3 Directions for Future Work
In the introduction of the thesis, the necessity of statistical mechanics for the better
understanding of the transition from the microscopic physical processes that take place
inside fault zones to the large scale macroscopic description of fracturing processes and
earthquakes was highlighted. The results of the thesis suggest that this transition can
successfully be described in terms of probabilities using NESM. The NESM approach
to fracturing processes and earthquakes is still in its infancy and future research towards
such an approach may lead to significant outcomes. It may be expected that the present
thesis will provide a useful guide for the implementation of NESM to earthquake
physics and stimulate further research towards that field.
In particular, the quite good agreement between the fragment-asperity (F-A) model and
the frequency-size distribution of earthquakes, found for the Corinth Rift and other
seismically active sites around the globe (e.g., Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas, 2004;
Silva et al., 2006; Telesca, 2010a; Papadakis et al., 2013), suggests that the F-A model
can be used to estimate hazard more efficiently and to possibly determine the stress
changes in the crust. The q-value incorporated in the model may then provide useful
insights in the geodynamic instability of the seismogenic zone as it evolves through
seismicity. Towards such insights are the works of Telesca (2010c) and Papadakis et
al. (2015) on the seismicity that preceded the 2009 L’Aquilla earthquake (ML = 5.8)
and the 1995 Kobe earthquake (M = 7.2), respectively. In both studies a q-value
increase prior to the strong event was observed, indicating the transition of the stress
release rates towards instability. Such insights would greatly benefit from rock
deformation experiments in a controlled environment in the laboratory. In such
experiments, the q-value variations as function of the time-varying applied stress and
crack growth can be monitored and useful insights about the underlying physical
process can be deduced (e.g., Sammonds et al., 1992).
In addition, the earthquake activity in tectonically active areas or volcanoes is typically

characterized by non-stationarities. Although such non-stationarities are produced by
205
stochastic models of seismicity like the ETAS model (Ogata, 1988; Helmstetter and
Sornette, 2002a), such models consider the background activity as an uncorrelated
Poisson process and produce earthquake time series that are approximately gamma
distributed (Hainzl et al., 2006; Touati et al., 2009). The present study on non-stationary
earthquake time series in the Rift showed that clustering effects and power-law scaling
also appear at long inter-event times, in accordance with the previous results of Kagan
and Jackson (1991) and Corral (2003). Such properties indicate a fraction of correlated
background activity that is not captured by the ETAS model. Future studies on
stochastic models that incorporate such properties will greatly improve the stochastic
modeling of seismicity and the efficiency of probabilistic hazard assessments. In
addition, the q-generalized gamma distribution, introduced here to describe the
probability densities of non-stationary earthquake time series in the Rift, reproduce well
such properties and its efficiency for describing such series requires further application
to other tectonic environments, volcano seismicity and laboratory acoustic emissions.
The study on earthquake diffusion and the spatial properties of the Efpalion and the
Agios Ioannis earthquake sequences in Chapter 6 highlights the need for accurate
earthquake catalogues in the study of such phenomena. Future research on the spatial
distribution of seismicity in the Rift will be greatly improved by using such catalogues.
Earthquake diffusion in the area can then be estimated for longer time periods and not
only for single sequences. The well-defined diffusion properties can be incorporated
into probabilistic earthquake hazard assessments by estimating, for instance, the
average migration of the earthquake zone with time for a given earthquake or an initial
pore-pressure perturbation. The combination of NESM and the CTRW theory in the
analysis of anomalous earthquake diffusion phenomena seems promising and future
research should focus on whether the propagation of triggered seismicity can efficiently
be modeled using such an approach.
The scaling properties of fault attributes are usually studied by using power-law or
exponential distributions that in many cases do not describe the full-range of the
observed distributions (e.g., Davy, 1993; Cladouhos and Marrett, 1996; Vetel et al.,
2005). In the thesis it was suggested that the NESM approach may provide a more
rigorous way to study the scaling properties of fault systems and further studies on other
deformed regions will verify if this is the case. In addition, power-law distributions are
206
used to extrapolate scaling to small faults, which may accommodate a significant

portion of total strain due to brittle faulting (Marrett and Allmendinger, 1991). Then
this extrapolation is used to estimate the amount of strain accommodated by the fault
system (e.g., Marrett and Allmendinger, 1992). In comparison to such approaches, the
NESM approach may provide more robust results on strain calculations and this idea
should be explored for the Corinth Rift and other tectonic environments in the future.
207
Chapter 8
Conclusions
Despite the complexity of the earthquake generation process, the collective properties
of fault and earthquake populations exhibit scaling properties that can well be
approximated by statistical or physical models. Such results were shown in the present
thesis for one of the most seismically active areas in Europe, the Corinth Rift. In terms
of probabilities of the different microstates and their interactions, the large scale
properties of fault and earthquakes populations in the Rift can be deduced by following
the principles of statistical mechanics and the generalized framework, termed as non-
extensive statistical mechanics (NESM). The NESM approach, based on the first
principles of statistical mechanics, provides a unified framework that produces a range
of asymptotic power-law to exponential-like distributions that are both ubiquitous in
nature.
The scaling properties of fault trace-lengths in the Corinth Rift are well described by
the NESM approach, for various q-values in the range of 1 (exponential) to 1.22. In
particular, systematic variations and the transition from asymptotic power-law (q > 1)
to exponential-like scaling (q = 1) appear to be function of increasing strain in the
deforming zone, providing further evidence for such transition in a single tectonic
setting. Exponential-like scaling in the central and western high-strain zones of the Rift,
or in the currently active Rift zone, imply that coalescence may dominate over fault
nucleation and growth, while the interplay between these processes lead to scale-
invariant fault growth in the eastern low-strain zone. Other factors that seem to control
Chapter 8 Conclusions
fault growth in the Rift are fault interactions and the thickness of the brittle layer. These
factors, in synergy with higher strains in the crust, may lead to fracture saturation, the
suppression of fault interactions and the transition from asymptotic power-law to
exponential scaling in the fault-length distribution. Regional strain, fault interactions
and the boundary condition of the brittle layer may then control fault growth and the
fault network evolution in the Corinth Rift.
For an almost 50 year period of recorded earthquake activity in the Rift, the NESM
formulation of the fragment-asperity (F-A) model yields the q-value of qE = 1.477
±0.013 for the frequency-size distribution of earthquakes, while the empirical
Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) scaling relation yields the b-value of b = 1.18 ±0.043. In
comparison to the G-R scaling relation, the F-A model produces more stable results
irrespective of the threshold magnitude considered in the analysis, rendering the F-A
model quite a useful tool for earthquake hazard assessments. In terms of expected
seismicity rates, the F-A model estimates the recurrence period of 15.3 ±3.8 years for
earthquakes of magnitude M = 6 in the Rift.
Earthquake activity in the Rift is typically characterized by intermittent behavior, where

periods of low activity are interspersed by sudden seismic bursts, which are associated
with frequent earthquake swarms and with the occurrence of stronger events followed
by aftershock sequences. This type of behavior is manifested in the degree of
heterogeneous clustering and the multifractal structure of the earthquake time series in
the Rift. The probability densities of inter-event times exhibit a bimodal character and
a gradual crossover between two power-law regimes at both short and long inter-event
times, indicating clustering effects at all timescales and memory in the seismogenic
process. Such scaling behavior is well reproduced by the q-generalized gamma
distribution that exhibits two-power law regimes and includes the ordinary gamma
distribution as a particular case. The q-generalized gamma distribution describes well
the probability densities of inter-event times in the Rift for over eight orders of
magnitude. After rescaling the inter-event times with the mean seismicity rate, the
probability densities, for various time periods, threshold magnitudes and spatial scales,
approximately fall onto a unique curve, which indicates the self-similar temporal
character of seismicity in the Rift.
209
Chapter 8 Conclusions
Earthquake diffusion phenomena in the Rift may occur during periods of high
earthquake activity. Such phenomena are observed during the 2010 Efpalion
earthquake sequence and the 2001 Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm sequence. In the
first case, the spatiotemporal properties of seismicity correspond to a correlated process
that propagates non-linearly with time away from the second Efpalion strong event (Mw
= 5.1). Such a process corresponds to anomalous sub-diffusion of the aftershock zone,
possibly induced by the slow spatial relaxation of the stress perturbation triggered by
the occurrence of the second strong event. Similar properties are observed for the
spatiotemporal evolution of the Agios Ioannis earthquake swarm, which has previously
been related to fluid diffusion at depth. The slow sub-diffusion of the swarm sequence
may then reflect the slow pore-pressure relaxation process that propagates along the
active fault plane towards the surface.
To conclude, the physical models derived in the framework of generalized statistical

mechanics can successfully reproduce the scaling properties of fault and earthquake
populations in the Corinth Rift, providing new insights into the physics that governs
fracturing processes and earthquakes in the region. Although the results of the present
thesis provide a step forward to the understanding of such complex phenomena, many
questions regarding the earthquake generation process remain wide open. Using the
principles of generalized statistical mechanics in a unified approach with the other
known laws in fracture mechanics may lead to significant discoveries and may enhance
our understanding regarding the physical mechanisms that drive the evolution of
seismicity in local, regional and global scale.
210
Appendices
Appendix A: Table of Faults
Length Spatial
Name Dip References
(km) distribution
1. Antirio Fault (AntF) 8.77 S onshore Flotté et al., 2005; Jolivet, 2010
2. Drosatos Fault (DrF) 4.41 S onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
3. Filothei Fault (FltF) 5.95 S onshore Valkaniotis, 2009

4. Kalithea Fault 1
6.65 S onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
(KaF/1)
5. Kalithea Fault 2
(KaF/2)
6. Marathias Fault 1 Valkaniotis, 2009
13.6 S onshore
(MrtF/1)
7. Marathias Fault 2 Beckers et al., 2015
8.31 S onshore
(MrtF/2) Valkaniotis, 2009
8. Amigdalea Fault
6.7 N onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
(AmgF)
9. Kokinovrahos Fault 1
7.14 N onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
(KnF/1)
10. Kokinovrahos Fault
2 (KnF/2)
11. Panormo Fault 1
(PaF/1)
12. Panormo Fault 2 onshore - Valkaniotis, 2009;
7.75 S
(PaF/2) offshore Beckers et al., 2015
13. Galaxidi Fault onshore - Papanikolaou et al., 2009;
7.76 S
(GlxF) offshore Valkaniotis, 2009
14. Agios Vlasios Fault onshore -
3.28 S Papanikolaou et al., 2009
(AgVF) offshore
15. Vounichora Fault 1
3.15 NE onshore Papanikolaou et al., 2009
(VoF/1)
16. Vounichora Fault 2
3 E onshore Papanikolaou et al., 2009
(VoF/2)
17. Tritea Fault 1
(TrF/1)
18. Tritea Fault 2
(TrF/2)
19. Tritea Fault 3
2.96 ESE onshore Papanikolaou et al., 2009
(TrF/3)
20. Sernikaki Fault (SrF) 4.63 ESE onshore Papanikolaou et al., 2009
21. Amfissa Fault 1 Papanikolaou et al., 2009;
5.4 SW onshore
(AmF/1) Valkaniotis, 2009
22. Amfissa Fault 2
1.97 NE onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
(AmF/2)
Appendix A Table of Faults
23. Amfissa Fault 3

1.21 NE onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
(AmF/3)
Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet;
24. Delfoi Fault (DelF) 22.4 60-65° S onshore
Valkaniotis, 2009
25. Chriso Fault (ChF) 10.8 N onshore
Valkaniotis, 2009
26. Camping Apollon
1.7 S Valkaniotis, 2009
Fault (CAF)
27. Kira Fault (KirF) 2.48 WSW onshore Papanikolaou et al., 2009
28. Makrigialos Fault onshore -
7.82 SW Valkaniotis, 2009
(MkF) offshore
29. Sikies Fault (SiF) 7.71 SW onshore
Valkaniotis, 2009
30. Kourmoutsi Fault Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet;
6.47 N onshore
(KMRF) Valkaniotis, 2009
31. Kourmouli Fault Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet;
2.6 S onshore
(KRMF) Valkaniotis, 2009
32. Antikyra Fault 1 Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet;
6.35 SE onshore
(AnF/1) Valkaniotis, 2009
33. Antikyra Fault 2
1.53 NE onshore Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet
(AnF/2)
34. Distomo Fault 1 Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet;
10.3 50-65° E onshore
(DiF/1) Valkaniotis, 2009
35. Distomo Fault 2
(DiF/2)
36. Abelos North Fault
3.24 S offshore Stefatos et al., 2002
(AbNF)
37. Tarsos Fault (TarF) 3.55 W onshore Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet
38. Kalogeriko Fault
(KagF)
39. Analipsi Fault 1
14.9 N onshore Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet
(AnaF/1)
40. Analipsi Fault 2
(AnaF/2)
41. Kiriaki Fault (KiF) 9.76 S onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
42. Elikonas Fault (ElF) 14.1 S onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
43. Karioti Fault (KrF) 4.33 N onshore Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet
44. Kalamiotisa Fault
11.4 S onshore Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet
(KaF)
45. Paralia Fault (PrF) 4.29 E onshore Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet
46. Prodromos Fault
(PrdF)
47. Thisvi Fault (ThF) 3.62 S onshore Neotectonic map, Leivadia sheet
48. Akrotiri Domvrena
Fault 1 (ADF/1)
212

Fault 2 (ADF/2)
Fault 3 (ADF/3)
51. Taratsa Fault (TaF) 4.38 N onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
52. Neochori Fault 1
(NchF/1)
53. Neochori Fault 2
(NchF/2)
54. Agios Nikolaos Fault
3.79 SE onshore Valkaniotis, 2009
(ANF)
55. Domvrena Gulf
4.66 45-50° N offshore Sakelariou et al., 2007
Fault (DGF)
56. Aliki Fault 1 IGME geologic map,
0.87 SW onshore
(ALF/1) Kaparellion sheet
1.39 SW onshore
1.46 SW onshore
59. Leontari Fault (LeF) 13.2 S onshore Tsodoulos et al., 2008
60. Livadostra Fault onshore - Tsodoulos et al., 2008;
16.9 SE
(LvF) offshore Sakelariou et al., 2007
61. West Kapareli Fault
6.27 S onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
(KWF)
62. East Kapareli Fault
(KEF)
63. Kotroni Fault (KotF) 1.21 SE onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
64. Kokinia Fault
2.1 N onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
(KokF)
65. North Kitheronas
Fault (KNF)
66. Erithres Fault (ErF) 14.8 N onshore Tsodoulos et al., 2008
67. Kitheronas Fault
6 ESE onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
(KthF)
68. Agia Triada Fault
(AtrF)
69. Agios Vasilios Fault
1 (AVF/1)
2.7 SW onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
2 (AVF/2)
3 (AVF/3)
4 (AVF/4)
73. Porto Germeno Fault
1.57 W onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
1 (PGF/1)
74. Porto Germeno Fault
2 (PGF/2)
213
75. Agios Nektarios

2.59 WNW onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
Fault 1 (ANF/1)
76. Agios Nektarios
1.23 WNW onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
Fault 2 (ANF/2)
77. Agios Nektarios
Fault 3 (ANF/3)
78. Profitis Ilias Fault
(PIF)
79. South Vilia Fault 1
(SVF/1)
(SVF/2)
3.22 NW onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
(SVF/3)
82. Krio Pigadi Fault
2.35 SE onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
(KPF)
83. Agia Paraskevi Fault
3.72 NNW onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
1 (APF/1)
84. Agia Paraskevi Fault
4.96 NW onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
2 (APF/2)
85. Mytikas Fault
(MytF)
86. Agios Georgios
7 S onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
Fault 1 (AGF/1)
87. Agios Georgios
Fault 2 (AGF/2)
88. Agios Georgios
1.87 ESE onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
Fault 3 (AGF/3)
89. Agios Georgios
4 S onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
Fault 4 (AGF/4)
90. Agios Sotiras Fault 1
(ASF/1)
91. Agios Sotiras Fault 2
(ASF/2)
92. Veniza Fault 1 Morewood and Roberts, 2001;
5.57 S onshore
(VenF/1) Bentham, 1991
93. Veniza Fault 2
(VenF/2)
94. Psatha Fault (PsF) 11.2 N onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
95. Alepochori Fault 1
(AlpF/1)
(AlpF/2)
(AlpF/3)
0.83 SE onshore Morewood and Roberts, 2001
(AlpF/4)
99. Megara Basin Fault
1.72 ESE onshore Bentham, 1991
1 (MBF/1)
100. Megara Basin Fault IGME geologic map,
4.93 NE onshore
2 (MBF/2) Kaparellion sheet
214

2.42 NW onshore Bentham, 1991
3 (MBF/3)
1.79 SE onshore Bentham, 1991
4 (MBF/4)
2.16 NNE onshore Bentham, 1991
5 (MBF/5)
2.18 N onshore Bentham, 1991
6 (MBF/6)
2.27 NE onshore
1.41 NE onshore
8.16 NE onshore Bentham, 1991
9 (MBF/9)
2.63 WSW onshore Moretti et al., 2003
10 (MBF/10)
4.54 SW onshore Moretti et al., 2003
11 (MBF/11)
110. Mavrolimni Fault IGME geologic map,
1.54 NE onshore
(MavF) Kaparellion sheet
111. Kakia Skala Fault IGME geologic map, Sofikon
6.61 S onshore
(KKF) sheet
IGME geologic map, Sofikon
112. Kineta Fault (KntF) 5.15 S onshore
and Kaparellion sheet
113. Gerania Mountain IGME geologic map,
2.71 SW onshore
Fault 1 (GMF/1) Kaparellion sheet
1.85 SW onshore
1.59 SE onshore
2.74 N onshore
117. Gerania Mountain IGME geologic map, Sofikon
12.7 SW onshore
Fault 5 (GMF/5) and Kaparellion sheet
2.4 S onshore
Fault 6 (GMF/6) sheet
3.36 S onshore
Fault 7 (GMF/7) sheet
120. Agioi Theodoroi IGME geologic map, Sofikon
2.96 S onshore
Fault (AThF) sheet
121. Kalithea Fault 1 IGME geologic map, Sofikon
4.1 S onshore
(KalF/1) sheet
122. Kalithea Fault 2 IGME geologic map, Sofikon
2.61 SE onshore
(KalF/2) sheet
123. Alkiona Fault IGME geologic map, Sofikon
1.81 N onshore
(AlkF) sheet
124. Schinos Fault
13 N onshore Morewood and Roberts, 1999
(SchF)
125. Pisia Fault (PisF) 20.7 N onshore Morewood and Roberts, 1999
215
126. Asprokambos Fault

4.49 N onshore Roberts and Gawthorpe, 1995
1 (AspF/1)
2 (AspF/2)
3 (AspF/3)
2.74 S onshore Roberts and Gawthorpe, 1995
4 (AspF/4)
1.7 S onshore Morewood, 2000
5 (AspF/5)
131. Skalosia Fault IGME geologic map, Perachora
1.1 N onshore
(SklF) sheet
132. Sterna Fault 1
(StrF/1)
133. Sterna Fault 2
0.62 N onshore Morewood, 2000
(StrF/2)
134. North Vouliagmeni
Fault 1 (NVF/1)
135. North Vouliagmeni
Fault 2 (NVF/2)
136. Lake Vouliagmeni
Fault (LVF)
137. Akrotiri Melagavi
0.58 SW onshore Morewood, 2000
Fault 1 (AMF/1)
0.49 NE onshore Morewood, 2000
Fault 2 (AMF/2)
0.86 E onshore Morewood, 2000
Fault 3 (AMF/3)
Fault 4 (AMF/4)
Fault 5 (AMF/5)
142. Makrigoas Fault 1
(MkgF/1)
(MkgF/2)
(MkgF/3)
(MkgF/4)
(MkgF/5)
147. Moni Agiou
Ioannou Fault 1 0.74 SW onshore Morewood, 2000
(MAIF/1)
148. Moni Agiou
IGME geologic map, Perachora
Ioannou Fault 2 1.13 S onshore
sheet
(MAIF/2)
149. Perachora Basin
Fault 1 (PBF/1)
216

Fault 2 (PBF/2)
2 SW onshore Morewood, 2000
Fault 3 (PBF/3)
Fault 4 (PBF/4)
Fault 5 (PBF/5)
154. Perachora Basin IGME geologic map, Perachora
0.5 WSW onshore
Fault 6 (PBF/6) sheet
155. Perachora Basin IGME geologic map, Perachora
3.77 S onshore
Fault 7 (PBF/7) sheet
156. Osios Patapios Neotectonic map, Korinthos
6.35 S onshore
Fault 1 (OPF/1) sheet
2.72 S onshore
5.59 S onshore
1 W onshore
160. Loutraki Fault onshore -
11.5 S Charalampakis et al., 2014
(LtF) offshore
161. Isthmos Fault 1 Neotectonic map, Korinthos
2.95 S onshore
(ISF/1) sheet
2.4 S onshore
(ISF/2) sheet
3.8 S onshore
(ISF/3) sheet
4.42 N onshore
(ISF/4) sheet
165. Examilia Fault Neotectonic map, Korinthos
5.35 NW onshore
(EXF) sheet
166. Onia Fault 1 Neotectonic map, Korinthos
2.7 N onshore
(ONF/1) sheet
1.95 S onshore
(ONF/2) sheet
1.87 S onshore
(ONF/3) sheet
169. Kehries Fault Neotectonic map, Korinthos
10.5 N onshore
(KHF) sheet
170. Loutra Elenis Fault Neotectonic map, Korinthos
2.1 S onshore
(LEF) sheet
171. Mapsos Fault 1 Neotectonic map, Korinthos
3.66 NE onshore
(MpsF/1) sheet
3.87 N onshore
(MpsF/2) sheet
2.18 S onshore
(MpsF/3) sheet
1.58 S onshore
(MAF/4) sheet
217

3.99 N onshore
(MpsF/5) sheet
4.1 S onshore
(MpsF/6) sheet
1.88 SE onshore
(MpsF/7) sheet
178. Athikia Fault 1 Neotectonic map, Korinthos
4.31 N onshore
(AthF/1) sheet
3.77 N onshore
(AthF/2) sheet
1.46 N onshore
(AthF/3) sheet
2.1 N onshore
(AthF/4) sheet
6.19 S onshore
(AthF/5) sheet
183. Galataki Fault Neotectonic map, Korinthos
1.64 SSE onshore
(GltF) sheet
184. Almyri Fault 1 IGME geologic map, Sofikon
2.13 N onshore
(AlmF/1) sheet
185. Almyri Fault 2 IGME geologic map, Sofikon
1.97 S onshore
(AlmF/2) sheet
186. Katakali Fault IGME geologic map, Sofikon
13 N onshore
(KatF) sheet
187. Agios Vasilios –
Neotectonic map, Korinthos
Ritos Fault zone 29.3 N onshore
sheet
(AVRF)
188. Pefkali Fault 1 IGME geologic map, Sofikon
2.76 S onshore
(PfkL/1) sheet
3.1 N onshore
(PfkF/2) sheet
1.26 N onshore
(PfkF/3) sheet
3.12 N onshore
(PfkF/4) sheet
IGME geologic map, Sofikon
192. Sofiko Fault (SfkF) 6.34 SE onshore
sheet
193. Stefani Fault 1 Neotectonic map, Korinthos
7.73 S onshore
(StF/1) sheet
3.43 N onshore
(StF/2) sheet
1.23 S onshore
(StF/3) sheet
196. Agios Ioannis Fault Neotectonic map, Korinthos
1.91 S onshore
1 (AgIF/1) sheet
3.30 N onshore
2 (AgIF/2) sheet
5.28 N onshore
3 (AgIF/3) sheet
5.22 S onshore
4 (AgIF/4) sheet
218
200. Nemea Fault Neotectonic map, Korinthos

7.1 N onshore
(NmF) sheet
201. Stymfalia Fault Neotectonic map, Korinthos
16.1 N onshore
(StmF) sheet
202. Kefalari Fault
8.66 N onshore Jolivet, 2010
(KflF)
203. Lechaio Fault
12.2 S offshore Charalampakis et al., 2014
(LcF)
204. Vrachati Fault
11.4 N offshore Charalampakis et al., 2014
(VrF)
205. Fryne Fault (FrF) 6.35 N offshore Charalampakis et al., 2014
206. Heraion Fault (HrF) 3.24 SE offshore Charalampakis et al., 2014

207. Vouliagmeni Fault
1 (VlF/1)
2 (VlF/2)
3 (VlF/3)
Taylor et al., 2011;
210. Kiato Fault (KtF) 4.39 S offshore
Charalampakis et al., 2014
211. Xylokastro Fault 45-60° Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
12 onshore
(XF) NNE Leeder et al., 2012
212. Korfiotisa Fault Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
8.98 60° NNW onshore
(KrF) Leeder et al., 2012
213. Koutsos Fault Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
3.27 70° SE onshore
(KtsF) Leeder et al., 2012
Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
214. Pirgos Fault 1
2.1 70° NW onshore Leeder et al., 2012;
(PF/1)
Rohais et al., 2007
215. Pirgos Fault 2 Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
0.66 70° SW onshore
(PF/2) Rohais et al., 2007
216. Trikala Fault (TrF) 1.58 N onshore Rohais et al., 2007
217. Killini Fault Rohais et al., 2007;
8.92 N onshore
(KilF) Leeder et al., 2012
218. Tarsos Fault (TarF) 5.47 NE onshore Rohais et al., 2007
219. Mavro Fault 1 Rohais et al., 2007;
8.26 N onshore
(MF/1) Leeder et al., 2012
220. Mavro Fault; Rohais et al., 2007;
5.57 N onshore
segment 2 (MF/s2) Leeder et al., 2012
221. Lagadeika Fault
1.19 E onshore Rohais et al., 2007
(LagF)
60–65° Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
222. Lygia Fault (LyF) 7.28 onshore
NW Rohais et al., 2007
Ford et al., 2013;
223. Aigira Fault (AgrF) 7.28 N onshore Rohais et al., 2007;
Leeder et al., 2012
224. Kalamias Fault Ford et al., 2013;
4.73 N onshore
(KlmF) Rohais et al., 2007;
219
Leeder et al., 2012
225. Akrata Delta Fault Rohais et al., 2007;

3.68 N onshore
(ADF) Leeder et al., 2012
226. Ano Akrata Fault 1
1.61 E onshore Rohais et al., 2007
(AAF/1)
227. Ano Akrata Fault 2
1.98 W onshore Rohais et al., 2007
(AAF/2)
228. Paralia Platanos
2.58 W onshore Ford et al., 2013
Fault 1 (PPF/1)
229. Paralia Platanos
2.71 E onshore Ford et al., 2013
Fault 2 (PPF/2)
Ford et al., 2013;
230. Prioni Fault 1
4.93 75° NW onshore Rohais et al., 2007;
(PrF/1)
Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
231. Prioni Fault 2 Ford et al., 2013;
1.1 W onshore
(PrF/2) Rohais et al., 2007
Ford et al., 2013;
232. Prioni Fault 3
1.67 70° NE onshore Rohais et al., 2007;
(PrF/3)
Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
Ford et al., 2013;
233. Voutsimos Fault Rohais et al., 2007;
6.26 30-60° onshore
(VtsF) Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
NW
Leeder et al., 2012
234. Aiges Fault 1
1.39 NE onshore Rohais et al., 2007
(AgF/1)
235. Aiges Fault 2
2.1 NE onshore Rohais et al., 2007
(AgF/2)
Rohais et al., 2007;
60-70° Ford et al., 2013;
236. Valimi Fault (ValF) 10.5 onshore
NE Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
Leeder et al., 2012
Ford et al., 2013;
237. Tsivlos Fault
9.15 N onshore Rohais et al., 2007;
(TsvF)
Leeder et al., 2012
Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
238. Vela Fault (VlF) 5.90 60° NW onshore Rohais et al., 2007;
Leeder et al., 2012
239. Exochi Fault 1 Rohais et al., 2007;
3.18 75° SE onshore
(ExF/1) Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
240. Exochi Fault 2
2.13 S onshore Rohais et al., 2007
(ExF/2)
2.8 S onshore
(ExF/3) Ford et al., 2013
3.73 N onshore
(ExF/4) Ford et al., 2013
243. Exochi Fault 5 Ford et al., 2013;
1.74 NW onshore
(ExF/5) Rohais et al., 2007
Ford et al., 2013;
244. Xerovouni Fault 1
4.26 N onshore Rohais et al., 2007;
(XeF/1)
Leeder et al., 2012
220
245. Xerovouni Fault 2

3.63 SW onshore Ford et al., 2013
(XeF/2)
246. Kalavrita Fault
16 55-60° N onshore Ford et al., 2013
(KalF)
247. Kastraki Fault
3.19 E onshore Ford et al., 2013
(KstF)
248. Avlonas Fault
10.9 S onshore Ford et al., 2013
(AvlF)
249. Kerpini Fault Ford et al., 2013;
11.3 50-60° N onshore
(KrpF) Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
250. Rogoi Fault (RogF) 1.59 S onshore Ford et al., 2013
251. Doumena Fault Ford et al., 2013;
11.6 42-55° N onshore
(DoF) Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
Moretti et al., 2003;
252. Korfes Fault (KorF) 5.73 S onshore
Ghisetti and Vezanni, 2005
253. Kato Zachlorou
Fault (KZF)
254. Vilivina Fault
(VlvF/1)
255. Vilivina Fault 2
(VlvF/2)
256. Lofos Fault (LoF) 2.67 S onshore Ford et al., 2013
257. Pirgaki-Mamousia Ford et al., 2013;
24.4 onshore
Fault zone (PMF) 70° N Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
258. Mamousia Vertical
0.72 onshore Ford et al., 2013
Fault 1 (MvF/1)
Fault 2 (MvF/2)
Fault 3 (MvF/3)
Fault 4 (MvF/4)
262. Katafigion Fault
(KtF)
263. Kastillia Fault
(KslF)
264. Trapeza Fault 1 50-70° Ford et al., 2013;
8.82 onshore
(TrpF/1) NE Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
265. Trapeza Fault 2
1.21 N onshore Ford et al., 2013
(TrpF/2)
2.98 N onshore Ford et al., 2013
(TrpF/3)
(TrpF/4)
268. Kerinitis Fault Ford et al., 2013;
5.8 70° NW onshore
(KrnF) Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
Ford et al., 2013;
269. East Helike Fault 50-75° onshore -
17 Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
(EHF) NE offshore
Bell et al., 2009
221
270. West Helike Fault Ford et al., 2013;

13.9 50° NE onshore
(WHF) Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
271. Kato Fteri Fault 1
4.9 NE-E onshore Ford et al., 2013
(KFF/1)
272. Kato Fteri Fault 2
3.51 NE onshore Ford et al., 2013
(KFF/2)
273. West Kerinia Fault 65-70° Ford et al., 2013;
6.60 onshore
(WKF) NE Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
274. Kato Mavriki Fault
3 S? onshore Ford et al., 2013;
(KMF)
275. Achladia Fault Ford et al., 2013;
3.11 65° NW onshore
(AchF) Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
276. South Lakka Fault
2.31 80° SE onshore Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
(SLF)
277. Agios Konstantinos
0.76 N onshore Palyvos et al., 2005
Fault 1 (AKF/1)
Fault 2 (AKF/2)
Fault 3 (AKF/3)
280. Agios Konstantinos Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
1.78 70 NE onshore
Fault 4 (AKF/4) Palyvos et al., 2005
281. Agios Konstantinos Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
1.59 70 NE onshore
Fault 5 (AKF/5) Palyvos et al., 2005
282. Selinoudas Fault Ford et al., 2013;
(SndF) Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005
283. Valta Fault (VltF) 2.62 N onshore Ford et al., 2013
284. Famelitika Fault
5.52 S onshore Moretti et al., 2003
(FmlF)
285. Manesi Fault
7.21 N onshore Moretti et al., 2003
(MnsF)
286. Karousi Fault
6.76 N onshore Moretti et al., 2003
(KrsF)
287. Leodio Fault 1
4.99 N onshore Jolivet, 2010
(LdF/1)
288. Leodio Fault 2
4.49 S onshore Taylor et al., 2011
(LdF/2)
289. Leodio Fault 3
12.5 S onshore Flotté et al., 2005
(LdF/3)
Moretti et al., 2003; Flotté et al.,
290. Lakka Fault (LakF) 7.79 NE onshore
2005
Moretti et al., 2003; Ghizetti and
291. Aigion Fault 60-70° onshore -
13.1 Vezzani, 2005; Palyvos et al.,
(AigF) NE offshore
2005; McNeill et al., 2005
292. Fassouleika Fault Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
(FsF) Palyvos et al., 2005
293. Neos Erineos Fault
1.15 NE onshore Palyvos et al., 2005
(NEF)
294. Selianitika Fault Ghizetti and Vezzani, 2005;
(SeF) Palyvos et al., 2005
222
295. Kamares Fault 1

(KmrF/1)
(KmrF/2)
0.89 NE onshore Palyvos et al., 2007a
(KmrF/3)
(KmrF/4)
(KmrF/5)
300. Panagopoula Fault
(PngF)
301. Ano Ziria Fault
(AZF)
302. Ano Rodini Fault
4.2 NW onshore Palyvos et al., 2007a
(ARF)
303. Labiri Fault (LbF) 3.57 NE onshore Palyvos et al., 2005
304. Psathopyrgos Fault Palyvos et al., 2007b
10.7 N onshore
(PsthF) Flotté et al., 2005
305. Drepano Fault 1
3.7 N onshore Palyvos et al., 2007a
(DrF/1)
306. Drepano Fault 2
1.18 NW onshore Palyvos et al., 2007a
(DrF/2)
307. Sella Fault (SelF) 9.25 NW onshore Flotté et al., 2005
308. Nafpaktos Basin
5.48 S offshore Beckers et al., 2015
Fault 1 (NBF/1)
Fault 2 (NBF/2)
4.28 SE offshore Beckers et al., 2015
Fault 3 (NBF/3)
2.74 N offshore Beckers et al., 2015
Fault 4 (NBF/4)
312. Monastiraki Fault 1
(MnF/1)
(MnF/2)
(MnF/3)
315. Trizonia Fault 1
(TrzF/1)
1.29 S onshore Beckers et al., 2015
(TrzF/2)
317. Trizonia Fault 3 onshore -
2.67 N Beckers et al., 2015
(TrzF/3) offshore
318. Trizonia Fault 4 onshore -
2.60 N Moretti et al., 2003
(TrzF/4) offshore
(TrzF/5)
320. Valimitika (ValF) 3.83 N offshore Stefatos et al., 2002
223
321. Cape Gyftisa Fault McNeill et al., 2005;

3.29 N offshore
(CGF) Stefatos et al., 2002
322. Psaromita Fault 1 McNeill et al., 2005;
1.83 NW offshore
(PsrF/1) Bell et al., 2009
323. Psaromita Fault 2 McNeill et al., 2005; Stefatos et
5.78 S offshore
(PsrF/2) al., 2002
324. Psaromita Fault 3 McNeill et al., 2005;
2.66 N offshore
(PsrF/3) Bell et al., 2009
325. North Eratini Fault Bell et al., 2008
13.8 60° N offshore
(NEF) McNeill et al., 2005
326. South Eratini Fault Bell et al., 2008
16.2 50-60° S offshore
(SEF) McNeill et al., 2005
327. West Channel Fault
12.5 45-60° S offshore Bell et al., 2008
(WCF)
328. Diakopto (DkF) 4.54 37-47° S offshore Stefatos et al., 2002
329. East Channel Fault
23.8 45-55° S offshore Bell et al., 2008
(ECF)
330. Panormo Fault 1
2.16 S offshore Taylor et al., 2011
(PnF/1)
331. Panormo Fault 2
(PnF/2)
332. Akrata Fault (AkrF) 10.8 60 N offshore Bell et al., 2008; 2009
333. Akrata North 1 Bell et al., 2008; 2009
5.11 S offshore
(ANF/1) Taylor et al., 2011
334. Akrata North 2 Bell et al., 2008; 2009
4.32 N offshore
(ANF/2) Taylor et al., 2011
335. Akrata North 3
(ANF/3)
336. Anemokambi 1
1.97 S offshore Bell et al., 2008; 2009
(AnmF/1)
337. Anemokambi 2 Bell et al., 2008; 2009; Taylor et
2.63 S offshore
(AnmF/2) al., 2011
338. Anemokambi 3
2.74 N offshore Bell et al., 2008; 2009
(AnmF/3)
339. Anemokambi 4
1.89 S offshore Bell et al., 2008; 2009
(AnmF/4)
Bell et al., 2009
340. Itea Fault 1 (ItF/1) 14.6 S offshore
Taylor et al., 2011
Bell et al., 2009; Stefatos et al.,
341. Itea Fault 2 (ItF/2) 5.88 26-30° S offshore
2002; Taylor et al., 2011
342. Itea Fault 3 (ItF/3) 3.91 S offshore Taylor et al., 2011
Bell et al., 2009
343. Derveni (DrvF) 11.2 26 N offshore
Taylor et al., 2011
344. North Derveni
11.8 N offshore Taylor et al., 2011
Fault 1 (NDF/1)
345. North Derveni
Fault 2 (NDF/2)
346. North Derveni
Fault 3 (NDF/3)
224
347. North Derveni

Fault 4 (NDF/4)
348. North Derveni
Fault 5 (NDF/5)
349. North Derveni
Fault 6 (NDF/6)
350. North Derveni
Fault 7 (NDF/7)
351. North Derveni
Fault 8 (NDF/8)
352. North Derveni
Fault 9 (NDF/9)
353. North Derveni
Fault 10 (NDF/10)
354. North Derveni
11 S offshore Taylor et al., 2011
Fault 11 (NDF/11)
Bell et al., 2009;
355. Likoporia (LkF) 17 N offshore
Taylor et al., 2011
Taylor et al., 2011;
356. West Antikyra
13.8 65° S offshore Bell et al., 2009;
(WAF)
Stefatos et al., 2002
Stefatos et al., 2002;
357. East Antikyra
15.8 65° S offshore Bell et al., 2009;
(EAF)
Taylor et al., 2011
358. South Antikyra Taylor et al., 2011;
12.3 S offshore
Fault 1 (SAF/1) Bell et al., 2009
359. South Antikyra
Fault 2 (SAF/2)
360. South Antikyra
Fault 3 (SAF/3)
361. South Antikyra
Fault 4 (SAF/4)
362. Pagalos Fault 1
11 S offshore Bell et al., 2009
(PgF/1)
Taylor et al., 2011
363. Pagalos Fault 2
(PgF/2)
364. Abelos Fault 1
(AblF/1)
365. Abelos Fault 2
(AblF/2)
366. Velanidia Fault
3 SW offshore Stefatos et al., 2002
(VlF)
367. Vourlia Fault Stefatos et al., 2002;
5.46 S offshore
(VrlF) Bell et al., 2009
368. Offshore Stefatos et al., 2002;
Xylokastro Fault 9.9 20-30° N offshore Bell et al., 2009;
(OXL) Taylor et al., 2011
369. North Xylocastro
3.83 N offshore Bell et al., 2009
Fault 1 (NXF/1)
225
370. North Xylocastro Bell et al., 2009;

8.89 N offshore
Fault 2 (NXF/2) Taylor et al., 2011
371. North Xylocastro Bell et al., 2009;
6.4 S offshore
Fault 3 (NXF/3) Taylor et al., 2011
13.6 N offshore Bell et al., 2009
Fault 4 (NXF/4)
8.79 S offshore Bell et al., 2009
Fault 5 (NXF/5)
374. Perachora Fault 32-48°
10.3 offshore Bell et al., 2009;
(PchF) NW
Taylor et al., 2011
375. Strava Fault (StrF) 7.31 40° N offshore Sakelariou et al., 2007;
Leeder et al., 2002
376. Glaronisi Fault 1 Sakelariou et al., 2007;
8.83 30° S offshore
(GlF/1) Leeder et al., 2002;
Bell et al., 2009
377. Glaronisi Fault 2 Leeder et al., 2005;
(GlF/2) 8.12 S offshore Bell et al., 2009; Stefatos et al.,
2002
378. Glaronisi Fault 3
Leeder et al., 2002; Stefatos et
(GlF/3) 6.14 S offshore
al., 2002

Leeder et al., 2002;
(GlF/4) 4.1 30° NE offshore
Bell et al., 2009;
Sakelariou et al., 2007
380. Glaronisi Fault 5 Leeder et al., 2002; Stefatos et
(GlF/5) 2.17 S offshore al., 2002; Bell et al., 2009;
Sakelariou et al., 2007
2 N offshore Sakelariou et al., 2007
(GlF/6)
382. Domvrena Fault Sakelariou et al., 2007;
11.3 40-45° S offshore
(DomF) Leeder et al., 2002;
Bell et al., 2009
383. West Alkyonides Leeder et al., 2002;
9.5 30° N offshore
(WAF) Sakelariou et al., 2007;
Bell et al., 2009
384. East Alkyonides Leeder et al., 2002;
offshore
(EAF) 8.47 NW Sakelariou et al., 2007;
Bell et al., 2009
385. Alkyonides Fault 1 Leeder et al., 2002; Stefatos et
2.22 N offshore
(AlkF/1) al., 2002; Sakelariou et al., 2007
2.83 SE offshore
(AlkF/2) al., 2002
Leeder et al., 2002; Stefatos et
387. Alkyonides Fault 3
3.3 SE offshore al., 2002; Sakelariou et al., 2007;
(AlkF/3)
Bell et al., 2009
226

4 NW offshore
(AlkF/4) al., 2002; Bell et al., 2009
389. Germeno Fault onshore - Sakelariou et al., 2007;
8 40-45° S
(GrmF) offshore Leeder et al., 2002;
Bell et al., 2009
390. North Mytikas
4.57 N offshore Sakelariou et al., 2007
Fault (NMF)
391. South Mytikas
3.3 S offshore Sakelariou et al., 2007
Fault (SMF)
227
Appendix B: Results for the Declustered Datasets
a)
b)
Figure B.1: Aftershock identification intervals in a) space and b) time, as a function of

the mainshock magnitude, according to the window parameter settings of Gardner and
Knopoff (1974) and Uhrhammer (1986).
Appendix B Results for the Declustered Datasets
Figure B.2: Cumulative (squares) and non-cumulative (incremental) (triangles)

frequency – magnitude distribution for the declustered 1967 – 2014 NOA dataset. The
solid line represents the G-R scaling relation for b = 1.16 and a = 7.02.
Figure B.3: Cumulative frequency – magnitude distribution for the declustered 1967 –
2014 NOA dataset and the corresponding fits according to the F-A model for various
values of the minimum magnitude M0.
229
Figure B.4: Probability density p(T) of the rescaled inter-event times T for the
declustered HUSN (circles) and CRLN (squares) datasets. The solid line represents the
corresponding fit according to the q-generalized gamma distribution (Eq.5.2), for the
values of C = 0.9, β = 0.8, γ = 0.75 and q = 1.23. The dashed line represents the
corresponding fit according to the gamma distribution (Eq.5.1) for the values of C =
0.9, β = 1 and γ = 0.75.
230
a)
b)
231
c)
d)
Figure B.5: Multifractal analysis of the inter-event time series for the declustered
HUSN dataset, where the aftershocks have been removed. a) The logarithm of the
fluctuation functions Fq(n) versus the logarithm of the segment sizes n for various
values of q   5,5 and step size 0.2. b) The range of generalized Hurst exponents h(q)
and the corresponding confidence intervals plotted as errorbars. The mean h(q) that
resulted from 10 randomly shuffled copies of the original series is also shown. c) The
mass exponents τ(q) for the original series and the shuffled copies. d) The singularity
spectrum f(a) as function of the Hölder exponent a for the original series and the
shuffled copies.
232
a)
b)
233
c)
d)
Figure B.6: Multifractal analysis of the inter-event time series for the declustered
CRLN dataset, where the aftershocks have been removed. a) The logarithm of the
fluctuation functions Fq(n) versus the logarithm of the segment sizes n for various
values of q   5,5 and step size 0.2. b) The range of generalized Hurst exponents h(q)
and the corresponding confidence intervals plotted as errorbars. The mean h(q) that
resulted from 10 randomly shuffled copies of the original series is also shown. c) The
mass exponents τ(q) for the original series and the shuffled copies. d) The singularity
spectrum f(a) as function of the Hölder exponent a for the original series and the
shuffled copies.
234
Appendix C: Matlab Codes
function
[q,L0,conf_bounds,val,corcoef,corcoeff_exp]=fit_qLength(data)
% Fit fault-length data with the q-exponential distribution

%
% Reference: Michas, G., Vallianatos, F., Sammonds, P., Statistical
% Mechanics and Scaling of fault populations with increasing strain
% in the Corinth Rift (Greece). EPSL, 431, 150-163.
L1=data >= 1;
L1=data(L1);
l=sort(L1);
i=(0:length(l)-1)';
N=length(l);
cdfy=(N-i)./N; %% cumulative distribution function P(>L)
clear i;
%%% set initial values for q %%%
q1=(1.001:0.001:1.999);
i=(1:length(q1));
M = ones(1,length(q1));
f=cdfy*M;
K = ones(N,1);
q2=K*q1;
lnqz=(1./(1-q2)).*(f.^(1-q2)-1); %% q-logaritmic distribution
function
cf=corr(l,lnqz(:,i)); %% Pearson correlation function

format long
[~,idx] = min(cf(:));
[r,c,~]=ind2sub(size(cf),idx);
qc = q1(r,c);
corcoef = cf(r,c);
%%% q exponential function %%%

modelFun=@(p,l) ((1+(1-p(1)).*(-l./p(2))).^(1/(1-p(1))))./((1+(1-
p(1)).*(-min(l)./p(2))).^(1/(1-p(1))));
[values,r,J,cov,mse] = nlinfit(l,cdfy, modelFun, [qc 4]);
ci=nlparci(values,r,'Jacobian',J);
conf_bounds=[values(1)-ci(1,1);values(2)-ci(2,1)];
y=((1+(1-values(1)).*(-l./values(2))).^(1/(1-values(1))))./((1+(1-
values(1)).*(-min(l)./values(2))).^(1/(1-values(1))));
q=values(1);
L0=values(2);
%%% exponential function %%%

modelFun=@(p,l) p(1).*exp(-p(2).*l);
[val] = nlinfit(l,N.*cdfy, modelFun, [100 1]);
yexp=val(1).*exp(-val(2).*l);
corcoeff_exp=corr(l,log10(N.*cdfy));
Appendix C Matlab Codes
%%% plot q exponential function %%%

k=(1:N)';
k=sort(k,'descend');
loglog(l,k,'o','MarkerEdgeColor','b');
hold on
loglog(l,N.*y,'k','LineWidth',3);
loglog(l,yexp,'r','LineWidth',3);
xlabel('Fault Length (km)');
ylabel('Cumulative Number P (>L)');
%%% Plot q logarithmic function %%%

figure(2)
plot(l,lnqz(:,c),'o','MarkerEdgeColor','b');
hold on
lnqy=(1/(1-q)).*(y.^(1-q)-1);
plot(l,lnqy,'k','LineWidth',2)
xlabel('Fault Length (km)');
ylabel('ln_q [P (>L)]');
236
function [val,conf]=qmagnitude(m,M0)
% The function fits the fragment-asperity model to earthquake

% magnitude data and returns the cumulative distribution function
% of earthquake magnitudes and the corresponding fit.
% Reference: Michas, G., Vallianatos, F., and Sammonds, P. (2013,
% Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the
% earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift
% (Greece), Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 713–724.
% Input: m - vector of earthquake magnitudes
% M0 - the minimum cutoff magnitude
% Output: val - the q and a values of the fragment-asperity
% model
% conf - 95% confidence intervals of the estimated values
% Select the earthquake catalog for magnitudes M >= M0

cat = m >= M0;
cat = m(cat);
% Logarithm of the cumulative distribution function

[fnum] = cnum(cat);
x = fnum(:,1);
cdf = (fnum(:,2)./length(cat));
y = log(cdf);
% CDF for the fragment-asperity model according to Telesca (2012)

modelfun=@(b,x)((2-b(1))./(1-b(1))).*log((1-(((1-b(1))...
./(2-b(1))).*((10.^x)./((b(2).^(2/3))))))./((1-(((1-b(1))...
./(2-b(1))).*((10.^M0)./((b(2).^(2/3))))))));
beta0 = [1.35 400]; % Initial values for q and a
% Nonlinear least-square estimation

[val,r,J] = nlinfit(x,y,modelfun,beta0);
Conf = nlparci(val,r,'Jacobian',J); % 95% confidence intervals
% Plot
xrange = min(x):0.01:max(x);
ymodel = modelfun(val,x);
plot(x,y,'o','MarkerEdgeColor','k');
hold on
plot(xrange,modelfun(val,xrange),'r','LineWidth',3);
plot(xrange,modelfun(ci(:,1),xrange),'r')
plot(xrange,modelfun(ci(:,2),xrange),'r')
xlabel('M');
ylabel('log (N>M / N)');
hold off
function [fnum]=cnum(m)
% Initialize
fnum = [];
% Set fix values

fMinMag = min(m);
fMaxMag = max(m);
237
for fMag=fMinMag:0.1:fMaxMag
% Select magnitude range
vSel = m >= fMag-0.05;
mCat = m(vSel,:);
[nRow, nCol] = size(mCat);
fnum = [fnum; fMag nRow];
end;
238
function [MeanMag, BValue, StdDevB, AValue, StdDevA] =

calc_bval(mCatalog, Binning);
% Calculates the mean magnitute, the b-value based

% on the maximum likelihood estimation (Aki, 1965; Utsu, 1966), %
% the standard deviation of the b-value (Shi & Bolt, 1982),
% the a-value and the standard deviation of the a-value.
%
% Input parameters:
% mCatalog Earthquake catalog
% Binning Binning of the earthquake magnitudes (default 0.1)
%
% Output parameters:
% MeanMag Mean magnitude
% BValue b-value
% StdDev Standard deviation of b-value
% AValue a-value
% StdDevA Standard deviation of a-value
%
% Modified after Schorlemmer (2003)
% Set the default value if not passed to the function

if ~exist('fBinning')
fBinning = 0.1;
end;
% Check input
[nY,nX] = size(mCatalog);
if (~isempty(mCatalog) & nX == 1)
vMag = mCatalog;
elseif (~isempty(mCatalog) & nX > 1)
vMag = mCatalog(:,6);
else
disp('No magnitude data available!');
return
end;
% Calculate the minimum and mean magnitude, length of catalog

nLen = length(vMag);
MinMag = min(vMag);
MeanMag = mean(vMag);
% Calculate the b-value (maximum likelihood)

BValue = (1/(MeanMag-(MinMag-(Binning/2))))*log10(exp(1));
% Calculate the standard deviation

StdDev = (sum((vMag-MeanMag).^2))/(nLen*(nLen-1));
StdDevB = 2.30 * sqrt(StdDev) * BValue^2;
% Calculate the a-value

AValue = log10(nLen) + BValue * MinMag;
% Calculate the standard deviation

StdDevA = sqrt((MinMag*StdDev)^2+(BValue*Binning)^2);
239
function [Fq,Hq,tq,aq,Dq]=MFDFA(DATA,order)
% Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

% Input: DATA the input series
% order polynomial order for the detrending
% Output: Fq qth order fluctuation function
% Hq q-order Hurst exponent
% tq q-order mass exponent
% aq q-order singularity strength
% Dq singularity spectrum
% Reference: Michas, G., Sammonds, P., Vallianatos, F., Dynamic
% multifractality in earthquake time series: Insights
% from the Corinth Rift,Greece. Pure Appl. Geophys.,
% 172, 1909-1921, 2015.
%
y1=cumsum(DATA-mean(DATA));
y2=(flipud(y1));
q=linspace(-5,5,51);
n=10:length(DATA)/4;
[midpts]=lnbin(n,50);
n2=round(midpts);
nCnt = 1;
hWait = waitbar(0,'Please wait...');
for i=1:length(n2)
n(i)=floor(length(DATA)/n2(i)); % number of segments
N1=n(i)*n2(i); % total number of events
yc=[y1(1:N1);y2(1:N1)]; % double vector starting
from the end of the first
for j=1:(2*n(i)),
Index=((((j-1)*n2(i))+1):j*n2(i));
fitcoef=polyfit(Index',yc(Index),order);
Yn=polyval(fitcoef,Index');
F_n{i}(j)=sqrt(mean((yc(Index)-Yn).^2));
end
for k=1:length(q);
qFn{k,i}=F_n{i}.^q(k);
Fq(k,i)=mean(qFn{k,i}).^(1/q(k));
end
Fq(q==0,i)=exp(0.5*mean(log(F_n{i}.^2)));
waitbar(nCnt/length(n2))
nCnt = nCnt + 1;
end
close(hWait)
for k=1:length(q),
[A]=fit(log10(n2(1:50)),log10(Fq(k,1:50)'),'poly1','Robust','off');
coeffvals = coeffvalues(A);
yfit(k,:)=coeffvals(1)*log10(n2')+coeffvals(2);
ci = confint(A);
confbounds(k)=coeffvals(1)-ci(1);
Hq(k)=coeffvals(1);
end;
240
tq=Hq.*q-1;
aq=diff(tq)./diff(q);
Dq=(q(1:end-1).*aq)-tq(1:end-1);
% Figure 1 (q vs Hq)
figure1 = figure;
axes1 = axes('Parent',figure1);
xlim(axes1,[-5 5]);
ylim(axes1,[0.1 2]);
box(axes1,'on');
hold(axes1,'all');
xlabel('q')
ylabel('h(q)')
errorbar(q,Hq,confbounds,'Marker','o','LineStyle','none', ...
'LineWidth',2,'Color',[0.078 0.168 0.549]);
% Figure 2 (segments vs Fq)

figure(2)
for sq=1:length(q)
plot(log10(n2),log10(Fq(sq,:)),'Color',rand(1,3))
xlabel('log n')
ylabel('log Fq')
hold all
end;
% Figure 3 (q vs tq)
figure(3)
plot(q,tq,'Marker','o')
xlabel('q')
ylabel('τ(q)')
% Figure 4 (singularity spectrum aq vs Dq)

figure(4)
plot(aq,Dq,'Marker','o')
xlabel('α')
ylabel('f(α)')
241
% Vincenty Inverse Solution of Geodesics on the Ellipsoid (c)

% Chris Veness 2002-2010
% from: Vincenty inverse formula - T Vincenty, "Direct and Inverse
% Solutions of Geodesics on the Ellipsoid with application of
% nested equations", Survey Review, vol XXII no 176, 1975
% http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/PUBS_LIB/inverse.pdf
% modified for Matlab by Georgios Michas 2010
% Calculates geodetic distance between two points specified by
% latitude/longitude using Vincenty inverse formula for ellipsoids
% @param {Number} lat1, lon1: first point in decimal degrees
% @param {Number} lat2, lon2: second point in decimal degrees
% @returns (Number} distance in Km between points
function s=distVincenty(lat1, lon1, lat2, lon2)
a = 6378.137 ;
b = 6356.752314245;
f = 1-(b/a); % WGS-84 ellipsoid params
lon1=deg2rad(lon1);
lon2=deg2rad(lon2);
L =lon2-lon1;
lat11=deg2rad(lat1);
U1 = atan((1-f) * tan(lat11));
lat22=deg2rad(lat2);
U2 = atan((1-f) * tan(lat22));
sinU1 = sin(U1);
cosU1 = cos(U1);
sinU2 = sin(U2);
cosU2 = cos(U2);
lambda = L; % lambdaP, iterLimit = 100;
sinLambda = sin(lambda);
cosLambda = cos(lambda);
sinSigma = sqrt((cosU2*sinLambda) * (cosU2*sinLambda) +...
(cosU1*sinU2-sinU1*cosU2*cosLambda) * (cosU1*sinU2-...
sinU1*cosU2*cosLambda));
if sinSigma==0
end % co-incident points
cosSigma = sinU1*sinU2 + cosU1*cosU2*cosLambda;
sigma = atan2(sinSigma, cosSigma);
sinAlpha = cosU1 * cosU2 * sinLambda / sinSigma;
cosSqAlpha = 1 - sinAlpha*sinAlpha;
cos2SigmaM = cosSigma - 2*sinU1*sinU2/cosSqAlpha;
if cos2SigmaM == 0; % equatorial line:
cosSqAlpha=0
else
C = f/16*cosSqAlpha*(4+f*(4-3*cosSqAlpha));
lambdaP = lambda;
lambda = L + (1-C) * f * sinAlpha *...
(sigma + C*sinSigma*(cos2SigmaM+C*cosSigma*(-...
1+2*cos2SigmaM*cos2SigmaM)));
uSq = cosSqAlpha * (a*a - b*b) / (b*b);

A = 1 + uSq/16384*(4096+uSq*(-768+uSq*(320-175*uSq)));
B = uSq/1024 * (256+uSq*(-128+uSq*(74-47*uSq)));
deltaSigma = B*sinSigma*(cos2SigmaM+B/4*(cosSigma*(-
1+2*cos2SigmaM*cos2SigmaM)-...
B/6*cos2SigmaM*(-3+4*sinSigma*sinSigma)*(-
3+4*cos2SigmaM*cos2SigmaM)));
s = b*A*(sigma-deltaSigma);
end
242
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Generalized statistical mechanics description of fault and

earthquake populations in Corinth rift (Greece)

University College London

Abstract ....................................................................................................................... iii

List of Figures ..............................................................................................................ix

List of Tables ........................................................................................................... xvii

1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1

1.2 Thesis Outline ..................................................................................................... 7

Chapter 2 Earthquake Statistics and Generalized Statistical Mechanics .............. 9

2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 9

2.2 The concept of Fractals ....................................................................................... 10

2.3 Scaling in Fault and Earthquake Populations .................................................. 13

2.4 Critical phenomena and Self-Organized Criticality ......................................... 28

2.5 Statistical Mechanics and Information Theory ................................................. 32

2.6 Generalized Statistical Mechanics ...................................................................... 39

Chapter 3 Statistical Mechanics of the Fault Network........................................... 64

3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 64

3.2 Tectonic setting..................................................................................................... 67

3.3 Fault dataset ......................................................................................................... 75

3.4 Generalized Statistical Mechanics Formalism .................................................. 85

3.5 Analysis of the fault dataset ................................................................................ 86

3.6 Discussion............................................................................................................ 102

Chapter 4 Earthquake-Size Distribution ............................................................... 111

4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 111

4.2 Earthquake activity in the Corinth Rift........................................................... 112

4.3 Seismic Networks and Earthquake Catalogues .............................................. 114

Chapter 5 Temporal Properties of Seismicity and the Inter-event Time

5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 137

5.2 Datasets ............................................................................................................... 138

5.3 The Inter-event Times Distribution ................................................................. 145

5.4 Multifractality in the earthquake time series .................................................. 156

5.5 Discussion............................................................................................................ 171

Chapter 6 Earthquake Diffusion ............................................................................ 174

6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 174

6.2 Continuous Time Random Walk approach to earthquake diffusion............ 176

6.3 The 2010 Efpalion earthquakes ........................................................................ 179

7.1 Summary of the Results..................................................................................... 196

7.2 Wider Implications ............................................................................................ 200

7.3 Directions for Future Work .............................................................................. 205

Chapter 8 Conclusions............................................................................................. 208

Appendices ................................................................................................................ 211

List of References ..................................................................................................... 243

2.2 Traces of fault populations in a range of scales (Main, 1996)................................15

2.8 a) Probability distributions Dxyt(τ) of inter-event times τ in California, for several

2.9 Graphic representation of the slider-block model (Rundle et al., 2003)..............31

2.14 a) Normalized cumulative distribution of earthquake magnitudes in Greece. b)

2.15 a) Probability distribution function (PDF) of incremental “avalanche” sizes x,

3.3 Topography of the Corinth Rift region..................................................................69

3.8 Mapping fault traces using DEM...........................................................................79

3.12 Histogram of frequency versus fault trace-lengths of the fault dataset................84

4.4 Seismic stations of HUSN operating in the Corinth Rift.....................................116

4.6 The CRL network.................................................................................................118

4.10 Cumulative seismic moment (in dyn∙cm) over time..........................................127

4.11 Cumulative frequency – magnitude distribution (squares) and the non-cumulative

4.17 The recurrence time of an earthquake of magnitude M in the Corinth Rift,

5.1 The 2008–2013 earthquake activity in the Corinth rift.......................................140

5.17 Singularity spectrum’s width W, as a measure of the degree of multifractality over

6.1 Spatial distribution of the 2010 Efpalion earthquake sequence...........................180

B.1 Aftershock identification intervals in a) space and b) time, as a function of the

B.2 Cumulative and non-cumulative (incremental) frequency – magnitude distribution

2.1 Spatiotemporal scaling properties of seismicity according to the q-exponential

2.2 Analyses of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes according to the

A.1 Table of Faults.....................................................................................................211

Although the scaling properties of seismicity can be reproduced by statistical models