El equipo de trabajo debe tomar los precios diarios de la acción

de Ecopetrol para el año inmediatamente anterior, y calcular el valor en riesgo

de la acción con un nivel de confianza del 99% (2,576 desviaciones estándar).
con el valor en riesgo encontrado realice el back Testing del VAR para las
cotizaciones de la acción el año actual calculando:
-‐El límite inferior y el límite superior del VAR para el año actual
-‐El número de veces que el precio dela acción rompe el límite superior o
el límite inferior durante el año actual
-‐El porcentaje de veces que el precio de la acción rompe el límite superior
o el límite inferior durante el año actual
-‐Graficar el Back Testing realizado
-‐Comparar el Nivel de Confianza utilizado (95%) con el porcentaje de
errores encontrados y analizar los resultados .
El entregable es un documento de Excel.
 UNIVERSIDAD POLITECNICO GRANCOLOMBIANO

GESTION INTEGRAL DEL RIESGO FINANCIERO

1RA ENTREGA

MARIA ALEJANDRA PICON BAYONA - 1311070478

JUAN CARLOS DURANGO ACOSTA - 1221560014
MARYURIS LICETH ASCANIO CARVAJALINO - 1065620801
ADRIANA GUEVARA PEÑA - 9413090014
JULIANA RODAS BERRIO - 1211300049

SEMINARIO FINANCIERO
I - 2018 GRUPO 01 - A.

TUTOR.
JUAN SIERRA

2018
 RESUMEN

Este estudio tiene como finalidad caracterizar el riesgo del mercado, operativo y de crédito en la acción de
ECOPETROL. Empresa representativa del mercado de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia en el
último año. A traves del Valor en Riesgo (VaR) y por medio de la realización de un backtesting, validaremos la
efectividad del modelo de medición de riesgo del mercado en base en los datos históricos del año 2017.

Palabras Clave: Valor en Riesgo, Back Testing, nivel de confianza, riesgo de mercado.
 INTRODUCCION

Mediante la presente actividad daremos solución al problema del módulo Seminario F

financiero" buscamos desarrollar esta actividad mediante conocimientos específicos qu
de los temas abordados en este trabajo; con el fin de ampliarlos y posteriormente obte
conocimientos significativos durante todo el desarrollo de la actividad colaborativa. Co
lograr el objetivo principal que es conocer la gestión integral del riesgo financiero, en
conceptos principales del mismo. En la primera fase analizara el riesgo de mercado, qu
externos tales como: tasa de interés, tipo de cambio de las monedas, taza de crecimient
la segunda fase se analizara otro factor relevante, el riesgo de crédito, dado que este re
entidad crediticia no efectué el pago oportunamente e incumpla con los convenios esta
se analizara el riesgo operativo que se presenta por fallas en los sistemas de informació
externos como fraude y error humano. Este se da como el resultado de imprevistos que
en los procesos. Para lograrlo se pretende extender una estrategia de aprendizaje que p
necesarios para el análisis del trabajo. Recopilaremos toda la información necesaria qu
en el proceso de creación, la labor se definirá en función a todo el grupo aportando con
ajustando y presentando un excelente trabajo.

Referencia:
Tomado de Ecopetrol
ION

a del módulo Seminario Financiero "gestión integral del riesgo

nocimientos específicos que nos permitan tener un concepto claro
os y posteriormente obtener los resultados que permitan adquirir
actividad colaborativa. Con la metodología grupal, se pretende
del riesgo financiero, en 3 (tres) faces donde se analizaran los
a el riesgo de mercado, que hace referencia a componentes
onedas, taza de crecimiento y las cotizaciones de las acciones. En
e crédito, dado que este representa la probabilidad de que la
pla con los convenios establecidos. Por ultimo en la tercera fase
os sistemas de información, debido a los acontecimientos
ultado de imprevistos que puede provocar pérdidas y desventajas
egia de aprendizaje que permita transferir los conocimientos
información necesaria que nos permita resolver los problemas
do el grupo aportando consecuentemente, retroalimentando,
 ACCIONES ECOPETROL 2017 ACCIONES ECOPE
AÑO 2017 Precio Cierre Precio Mayor Precio Menor AÑO 2016
January-2-2017 1,360.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Mon Jan 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-3-2017 1,380.00 1,390.00 1,370.00 Tue Jan 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-4-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,370.00 Wed Jan 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-5-2017 1,415.00 1,415.00 1,400.00 Thu Jan 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-6-2017 1,395.00 1,415.00 1,385.00 Fri Jan 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-10-2017 1,390.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Tue Jan 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-11-2017 1,410.00 1,415.00 1,395.00 Wed Jan 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-12-2017 1,400.00 1,425.00 1,400.00 Thu Jan 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-13-2017 1,405.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Fri Jan 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-16-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,395.00 Mon Jan 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-17-2017 1,400.00 1,405.00 1,385.00 Tue Jan 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-18-2017 1,390.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Wed Jan 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-19-2017 1,395.00 1,400.00 1,390.00 Thu Jan 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-20-2017 1,385.00 1,405.00 1,385.00 Fri Jan 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-23-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,370.00 Mon Jan 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-24-2017 1,400.00 1,410.00 1,400.00 Tue Jan 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-25-2017 1,385.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Wed Jan 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-26-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,390.00 Thu Jan 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-27-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,385.00 Fri Jan 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-30-2017 1,370.00 1,390.00 1,360.00 Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
January-31-2017 1,375.00 1,385.00 1,370.00 Tue Feb 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-1-2017 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,375.00 Wed Feb 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-2-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Thu Feb 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-3-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,380.00 Fri Feb 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-6-2017 1,375.00 1,385.00 1,365.00 Mon Feb 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-7-2017 1,355.00 1,370.00 1,350.00 Tue Feb 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-8-2017 1,355.00 1,360.00 1,345.00 Wed Feb 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-9-2017 1,355.00 1,365.00 1,355.00 Thu Feb 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-10-2017 1,380.00 1,380.00 1,365.00 Fri Feb 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-13-2017 1,375.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Mon Feb 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-14-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,360.00 Tue Feb 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-15-2017 1,365.00 1,370.00 1,355.00 Wed Feb 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-16-2017 1,360.00 1,380.00 1,355.00 Thu Feb 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-17-2017 1,350.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 Fri Feb 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-20-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,345.00 Mon Feb 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-21-2017 1,345.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 Tue Feb 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-22-2017 1,310.00 1,340.00 1,305.00 Wed Feb 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-23-2017 1,335.00 1,335.00 1,315.00 Thu Feb 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-24-2017 1,320.00 1,330.00 1,315.00 Fri Feb 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-27-2017 1,335.00 1,335.00 1,320.00 Mon Feb 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
feb-28-2017 1,320.00 1,330.00 1,320.00 Tue Mar 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-1-2017 1,310.00 1,325.00 1,305.00 Wed Mar 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-2-2017 1,315.00 1,315.00 1,295.00 Thu Mar 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-3-2017 1,320.00 1,335.00 1,305.00 Fri Mar 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-6-2017 1,320.00 1,335.00 1,300.00 Mon Mar 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-7-2017 1,330.00 1,330.00 1,310.00 Tue Mar 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-8-2017 1,295.00 1,330.00 1,295.00 Wed Mar 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-9-2017 1,310.00 1,310.00 1,275.00 Thu Mar 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-10-2017 1,315.00 1,320.00 1,305.00 Fri Mar 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-13-2017 1,315.00 1,325.00 1,310.00 Mon Mar 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-14-2017 1,290.00 1,310.00 1,285.00 Tue Mar 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-15-2017 1,315.00 1,315.00 1,295.00 Wed Mar 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-16-2017 1,320.00 1,320.00 1,305.00 Thu Mar 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-17-2017 1,300.00 1,325.00 1,300.00 Fri Mar 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-21-2017 1,325.00 1,325.00 1,300.00 Tue Mar 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-22-2017 1,320.00 1,325.00 1,315.00 Wed Mar 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-23-2017 1,320.00 1,330.00 1,310.00 Mon Mar 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-24-2017 1,315.00 1,325.00 1,315.00 Tue Mar 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-27-2017 1,305.00 1,320.00 1,300.00 Wed Mar 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-28-2017 1,325.00 1,325.00 1,310.00 Thu Mar 31 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-29-2017 1,340.00 1,340.00 1,320.00 Fri Apr 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-30-2017 1,340.00 1,350.00 1,340.00 Mon Apr 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
March-31-2017 1,350.00 1,350.00 1,335.00 Tue Apr 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-3-2017 1,350.00 1,350.00 1,330.00 Wed Apr 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-4-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Thu Apr 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-5-2017 1,350.00 1,375.00 1,350.00 Fri Apr 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-6-2017 1,355.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Mon Apr 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-7-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,355.00 Tue Apr 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-10-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,370.00 Wed Apr 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-11-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Thu Apr 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-12-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,380.00 Fri Apr 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-17-2017 1,370.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Mon Apr 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-18-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Tue Apr 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-19-2017 1,375.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Wed Apr 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-20-2017 1,380.00 1,380.00 1,370.00 Thu Apr 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-21-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Fri Apr 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-24-2017 1,360.00 1,375.00 1,350.00 Mon Apr 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-25-2017 1,365.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Tue Apr 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-26-2017 1,380.00 1,385.00 1,360.00 Wed Apr 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-27-2017 1,340.00 1,360.00 1,335.00 Thu Apr 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
April-28-2017 1,360.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 Fri Apr 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-2-2017 1,335.00 1,355.00 1,335.00 Mon May 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-3-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Tue May 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-4-2017 1,345.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Wed May 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-5-2017 1,365.00 1,365.00 1,340.00 Thu May 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-8-2017 1,385.00 1,385.00 1,365.00 Fri May 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-9-2017 1,380.00 1,385.00 1,375.00 Tue May 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-10-2017 1,380.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Wed May 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-11-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,370.00 Thu May 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-12-2017 1,445.00 1,450.00 1,380.00 Fri May 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-15-2017 1,480.00 1,485.00 1,455.00 Mon May 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-16-2017 1,450.00 1,485.00 1,450.00 Tue May 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-17-2017 1,410.00 1,455.00 1,410.00 Wed May 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-18-2017 1,410.00 1,420.00 1,380.00 Thu May 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-19-2017 1,435.00 1,440.00 1,415.00 Fri May 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-22-2017 1,425.00 1,440.00 1,415.00 Mon May 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-23-2017 1,420.00 1,430.00 1,415.00 Tue May 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-24-2017 1,405.00 1,425.00 1,405.00 Wed May 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-25-2017 1,390.00 1,420.00 1,390.00 Thu May 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-26-2017 1,395.00 1,405.00 1,385.00 Fri May 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-30-2017 1,375.00 1,390.00 1,370.00 Tue May 31 00:00:00 COT 2016
May-31-2017 1,335.00 1,370.00 1,310.00 Wed Jun 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-1-2017 1,345.00 1,355.00 1,335.00 Thu Jun 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-2-2017 1,335.00 1,340.00 1,325.00 Fri Jun 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-5-2017 1,375.00 1,375.00 1,335.00 Tue Jun 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-6-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,360.00 Wed Jun 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-7-2017 1,370.00 1,400.00 1,365.00 Tue Jun 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-8-2017 1,350.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Wed Jun 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-9-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,345.00 Thu Jun 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-12-2017 1,360.00 1,395.00 1,355.00 Fri Jun 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-13-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,350.00 Mon Jun 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-14-2017 1,350.00 1,375.00 1,340.00 Tue Jun 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-15-2017 1,340.00 1,350.00 1,335.00 Wed Jun 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-16-2017 1,365.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Thu Jun 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-20-2017 1,325.00 1,350.00 1,320.00 Fri Jun 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-21-2017 1,325.00 1,345.00 1,320.00 Mon Jun 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-22-2017 1,350.00 1,350.00 1,325.00 Tue Jun 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-23-2017 1,340.00 1,355.00 1,335.00 Wed Jun 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-27-2017 1,345.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Thu Jun 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-28-2017 1,340.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Fri Jul 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-29-2017 1,360.00 1,365.00 1,345.00 Tue Jul 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
June-30-2017 1,380.00 1,385.00 1,365.00 Wed Jul 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-4-2017 1,395.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Thu Jul 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-5-2017 1,365.00 1,395.00 1,365.00 Fri Jul 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-6-2017 1,380.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Mon Jul 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-7-2017 1,355.00 1,370.00 1,350.00 Tue Jul 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-10-2017 1,355.00 1,360.00 1,350.00 Wed Jul 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-11-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,350.00 Thu Jul 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-12-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Fri Jul 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-13-2017 1,395.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Mon Jul 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-14-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Tue Jul 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-17-2017 1,390.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Thu Jul 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-18-2017 1,380.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Fri Jul 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-19-2017 1,390.00 1,400.00 1,385.00 Mon Jul 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-21-2017 1,375.00 1,395.00 1,365.00 Tue Jul 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-24-2017 1,375.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Wed Jul 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-25-2017 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,375.00 Thu Jul 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-26-2017 1,385.00 1,405.00 1,385.00 Fri Jul 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-27-2017 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,380.00 Mon Aug 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-28-2017 1,395.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Tue Aug 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
July-31-2017 1,395.00 1,395.00 1,385.00 Wed Aug 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-1-2017 1,365.00 1,385.00 1,365.00 Thu Aug 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-2-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Fri Aug 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-3-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Mon Aug 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-4-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Tue Aug 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-8-2017 1,365.00 1,380.00 1,365.00 Wed Aug 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-9-2017 1,390.00 1,400.00 1,375.00 Thu Aug 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-10-2017 1,380.00 1,395.00 1,370.00 Fri Aug 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-11-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Tue Aug 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-14-2017 1,365.00 1,365.00 1,360.00 Wed Aug 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-15-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,350.00 Thu Aug 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-16-2017 1,355.00 1,365.00 1,350.00 Fri Aug 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-17-2017 1,365.00 1,375.00 1,350.00 Mon Aug 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-18-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,360.00 Tue Aug 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-22-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Wed Aug 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-23-2017 1,380.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Thu Aug 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-24-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Fri Aug 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-25-2017 1,360.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Mon Aug 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-28-2017 1,350.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 Tue Aug 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-29-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,340.00 Wed Aug 31 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-30-2017 1,350.00 1,355.00 1,345.00 Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
August-31-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,350.00 Fri Sep 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-1-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,355.00 Mon Sep 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-4-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Tue Sep 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-5-2017 1,370.00 1,380.00 1,360.00 Wed Sep 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-6-2017 1,375.00 1,380.00 1,370.00 Thu Sep 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-7-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,370.00 Fri Sep 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-8-2017 1,360.00 1,375.00 1,350.00 Mon Sep 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-11-2017 1,355.00 1,360.00 1,345.00 Tue Sep 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-12-2017 1,355.00 1,355.00 1,345.00 Wed Sep 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-13-2017 1,360.00 1,360.00 1,350.00 Thu Sep 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-14-2017 1,365.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Fri Sep 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-15-2017 1,370.00 1,370.00 1,360.00 Mon Sep 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-18-2017 1,370.00 1,380.00 1,365.00 Tue Sep 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-19-2017 1,370.00 1,375.00 1,365.00 Wed Sep 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-20-2017 1,380.00 1,380.00 1,370.00 Thu Sep 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-21-2017 1,385.00 1,390.00 1,375.00 Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-22-2017 1,380.00 1,385.00 1,375.00 Mon Sep 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-25-2017 1,390.00 1,395.00 1,385.00 Tue Sep 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-26-2017 1,395.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Wed Sep 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-27-2017 1,405.00 1,410.00 1,400.00 Thu Sep 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-28-2017 1,395.00 1,420.00 1,395.00 Fri Sep 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
sept-29-2017 1,400.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Mon Oct 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-2-2017 1,395.00 1,400.00 1,380.00 Tue Oct 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-3-2017 1,405.00 1,410.00 1,395.00 Wed Oct 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-4-2017 1,400.00 1,415.00 1,395.00 Thu Oct 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-5-2017 1,405.00 1,410.00 1,395.00 Fri Oct 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-6-2017 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,390.00 Mon Oct 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-9-2017 1,400.00 1,405.00 1,390.00 Tue Oct 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-10-2017 1,410.00 1,415.00 1,400.00 Wed Oct 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-19-2017 1,460.00 1,465.00 1,455.00 Thu Oct 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-20-2017 1,445.00 1,465.00 1,445.00 Fri Oct 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-23-2017 1,450.00 1,455.00 1,440.00 Tue Oct 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-24-2017 1,465.00 1,470.00 1,450.00 Wed Oct 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-25-2017 1,490.00 1,490.00 1,470.00 Thu Oct 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-26-2017 1,565.00 1,565.00 1,490.00 Fri Oct 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-27-2017 1,610.00 1,625.00 1,560.00 Mon Oct 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-30-2017 1,665.00 1,670.00 1,625.00 Tue Oct 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
October-31-2017 1,665.00 1,690.00 1,660.00 Wed Oct 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-1-2017 1,735.00 1,745.00 1,685.00 Thu Oct 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-2-2017 1,700.00 1,775.00 1,695.00 Fri Oct 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-3-2017 1,700.00 1,710.00 1,675.00 Mon Oct 31 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-7-2017 1,820.00 29,952.00 1,791.00 Tue Nov 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-8-2017 1,755.00 1,850.00 1,750.00 Wed Nov 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-9-2017 1,820.00 1,820.00 1,735.00 Thu Nov 03 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-10-2017 1,810.00 1,815.00 1,780.00 Fri Nov 04 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-14-2017 1,765.00 1,785.00 1,765.00 Tue Nov 08 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-15-2017 1,750.00 1,765.00 1,730.00 Wed Nov 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-16-2017 1,750.00 1,765.00 1,745.00 Thu Nov 10 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-17-2017 1,750.00 1,760.00 1,745.00 Fri Nov 11 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-20-2017 1,740.00 1,755.00 1,700.00 Tue Nov 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-21-2017 1,740.00 1,755.00 1,730.00 Wed Nov 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-22-2017 1,775.00 1,775.00 1,745.00 Thu Nov 17 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-23-2017 1,775.00 1,775.00 1,765.00 Fri Nov 18 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-24-2017 1,760.00 1,790.00 1,750.00 Mon Nov 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-27-2017 1,780.00 1,790.00 1,725.00 Tue Nov 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-28-2017 1,735.00 1,775.00 1,735.00 Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-29-2017 1,770.00 1,770.00 1,735.00 Thu Nov 24 00:00:00 COT 2016
Nov-30-2017 1,750.00 1,780.00 1,750.00 Fri Nov 25 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-1-2017 1,775.00 1,775.00 1,755.00 Mon Nov 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-4-2017 1,780.00 1,785.00 1,760.00 Tue Nov 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-5-2017 1,790.00 1,790.00 1,765.00 Wed Nov 30 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-6-2017 1,775.00 1,775.00 1,755.00 Thu Dec 01 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-7-2017 1,780.00 1,790.00 1,770.00 Fri Dec 02 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-11-2017 1,885.00 1,885.00 1,790.00 Mon Dec 05 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-12-2017 1,910.00 1,930.00 1,855.00 Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-13-2017 1,935.00 1,935.00 1,900.00 Wed Dec 07 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-14-2017 1,950.00 1,950.00 1,910.00 Fri Dec 09 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-15-2017 1,935.00 1,950.00 1,920.00 Mon Dec 12 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-18-2017 1,940.00 1,965.00 1,935.00 Tue Dec 13 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-19-2017 1,955.00 1,970.00 1,935.00 Wed Dec 14 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-20-2017 1,985.00 1,990.00 1,960.00 Thu Dec 15 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-21-2017 2,015.00 2,015.00 1,995.00 Fri Dec 16 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-22-2017 2,025.00 2,040.00 2,010.00 Mon Dec 19 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-26-2017 2,075.00 2,080.00 2,010.00 Tue Dec 20 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-27-2017 2,110.00 2,115.00 2,075.00 Wed Dec 21 00:00:00 COT 2016
Dec-28-2017 2,210.00 2,210.00 2,100.00 Thu Dec 22 00:00:00 COT 2016
TOTAL 343,905.00 374,272.00 340,666.00 Fri Dec 23 00:00:00 COT 2016
Mon Dec 26 00:00:00 COT 2016
Tue Dec 27 00:00:00 COT 2016
Wed Dec 28 00:00:00 COT 2016
Thu Dec 29 00:00:00 COT 2016
ACCIONES ECOPETROL 2016
Precio Cierre Precio Mayor Precio Menor
$1,105.00 1.140,00 1.100,00
$1,085.00 1.100,00 1.065,00
$1,060.00 1.075,00 1.055,00
$1,035.00 1.065,00 1.030,00
$1,015.00 1.035,00 1.010,00
$955.00 1.005,00 947,00
$961.00 997,00 955,00
$987.00 995,00 962,00
$980.00 982,00 949,00
$881.00 978,00 881,00
$923.00 956,00 900,00
$914.00 931,00 880,00
$950.00 960,00 920,00
$1,020.00 1.020,00 960,00
$958.00 1.010,00 957,00
$975.00 981,00 950,00
$990.00 995,00 955,00
$1,020.00 1.060,00 997,00
$1,030.00 1.045,00 1.010,00
$1,020.00 1.030,00 991,00
$993.00 1.010,00 990,00
$1,035.00 1.035,00 975,00
$1,050.00 1.080,00 1.035,00
$1,045.00 1.055,00 1.030,00
$1,060.00 1.060,00 1.030,00
$1,025.00 1.050,00 1.020,00
$1,030.00 1.040,00 1.005,00
$1,035.00 1.035,00 1.000,00
$1,065.00 1.065,00 1.035,00
$1,070.00 1.080,00 1.065,00
$1,045.00 1.085,00 1.040,00
$1,155.00 1.155,00 1.045,00
$1,160.00 1.190,00 1.160,00
$1,130.00 1.165,00 1.125,00
$1,165.00 1.185,00 1.155,00
$1,145.00 1.160,00 1.140,00
$1,135.00 1.145,00 1.115,00
$1,150.00 1.170,00 1.135,00
$1,160.00 1.195,00 1.155,00
$1,140.00 1.165,00 1.140,00
$1,170.00 1.175,00 1.145,00
$1,260.00 1.260,00 1.160,00
$1,320.00 1.330,00 1.250,00
$1,365.00 1.385,00 1.315,00
$1,425.00 1.435,00 1.300,00
$1,340.00 1.420,00 1.310,00
$1,340.00 1.395,00 1.340,00
$1,350.00 1.355,00 1.315,00
$1,360.00 1.385,00 1.350,00
$1,335.00 1.345,00 1.325,00
$1,285.00 1.330,00 1.270,00
$1,345.00 1.345,00 1.295,00
$1,380.00 1.380,00 1.350,00
$1,325.00 1.395,00 1.325,00
$1,350.00 1.350,00 1.320,00
$1,340.00 1.340,00 1.300,00
$1,290.00 1.305,00 1.280,00
$1,280.00 1.290,00 1.235,00
$1,310.00 1.320,00 1.280,00
$1,310.00 1.310,00 1.290,00
$1,300.00 1.305,00 1.260,00
$1,290.00 1.320,00 1.280,00
$1,265.00 1.280,00 1.255,00
$1,265.00 1.280,00 1.260,00
$1,220.00 1.265,00 1.220,00
$1,280.00 1.280,00 1.235,00
$1,290.00 1.305,00 1.280,00
$1,380.00 1.380,00 1.300,00
$1,400.00 1.425,00 1.370,00
$1,380.00 1.415,00 1.375,00
$1,350.00 1.375,00 1.340,00
$1,360.00 1.385,00 1.295,00
$1,380.00 1.405,00 1.360,00
$1,425.00 1.445,00 1.360,00
$1,430.00 1.440,00 1.420,00
$1,435.00 1.470,00 1.425,00
$1,415.00 1.445,00 1.415,00
$1,445.00 1.450,00 1.425,00
$1,460.00 1.485,00 1.450,00
$1,440.00 1.480,00 1.440,00
$1,415.00 1.455,00 1.405,00
$1,370.00 1.415,00 1.355,00
$1,370.00 1.370,00 1.330,00
$1,395.00 1.445,00 1.375,00
$1,390.00 1.440,00 1.380,00
$1,395.00 1.415,00 1.375,00
$1,405.00 1.405,00 1.365,00
$1,400.00 1.430,00 1.380,00
$1,420.00 1.435,00 1.395,00
$1,405.00 1.420,00 1.400,00
$1,445.00 1.450,00 1.410,00
$1,465.00 1.465,00 1.430,00
$1,405.00 1.470,00 1.405,00
$1,415.00 1.415,00 1.370,00
$1,400.00 1.425,00 1.395,00
$1,395.00 1.400,00 1.380,00
$1,385.00 1.400,00 1.370,00
$1,410.00 1.425,00 1.395,00
$1,395.00 1.425,00 1.395,00
$1,395.00 1.405,00 1.385,00
$1,340.00 1.405,00 1.340,00
$1,360.00 1.375,00 1.320,00
$1,375.00 1.380,00 1.335,00
$1,370.00 1.385,00 1.355,00
$1,420.00 1.425,00 1.375,00
$1,450.00 1.450,00 1.425,00
$1,395.00 1.410,00 1.385,00
$1,395.00 1.410,00 1.380,00
$1,395.00 1.410,00 1.380,00
$1,415.00 1.430,00 1.400,00
$1,420.00 1.435,00 1.415,00
$1,425.00 1.425,00 1.405,00
$1,410.00 1.435,00 1.410,00
$1,410.00 1.425,00 1.410,00
$1,400.00 1.405,00 1.360,00
$1,370.00 1.385,00 1.365,00
$1,385.00 1.400,00 1.385,00
$1,395.00 1.405,00 1.390,00
$1,395.00 1.395,00 1.380,00
$1,405.00 1.405,00 1.385,00
$1,375.00 1.395,00 1.370,00
$1,370.00 1.380,00 1.355,00
$1,355.00 1.405,00 1.350,00
$1,350.00 1.370,00 1.350,00
$1,370.00 1,370,0 1.350,00
$1,390.00 1.395,00 1.375,00
$1,395.00 1.405,00 1.380,00
$1,410.00 1.410,00 1.395,00
$1,400.00 1.415,00 1.385,00
$1,410.00 1.410,00 1.385,00
$1,390.00 1.410,00 1.385,00
$1,365.00 1.390,00 1.360,00
$1,360.00 1.370,00 1.350,00
$1,335.00 1.355,00 1.335,00
$1,340.00 1.350,00 1.330,00
$1,325.00 1.355,00 1.325,00
$1,295.00 1.325,00 1.290,00
$1,300.00 1.315,00 1.285,00
$1,250.00 1.300,00 1.245,00
$1,205.00 1.265,00 1.205,00
$1,235.00 1.235,00 1.200,00
$1,240.00 1.245,00 1.225,00
$1,230.00 1.240,00 1.225,00
$1,260.00 1.260,00 1.245,00
$1,240.00 1.260,00 1.240,00
$1,225.00 1.245,00 1.215,00
$1,230.00 1.230,00 1.215,00
$1,220.00 1.235,00 1.220,00
$1,275.00 1.280,00 1.230,00
$1,320.00 1.320,00 1.265,00
$1,330.00 1.335,00 1.320,00
$1,320.00 1.330,00 1.315,00
$1,290.00 1.320,00 1.265,00
$1,330.00 1.330,00 1.285,00
$1,325.00 1.335,00 1.315,00
$1,325.00 1.340,00 1.315,00
$1,320.00 1.340,00 1.315,00
$1,320.00 1.320,00 1.305,00
$1,325.00 1.335,00 1.315,00
$1,320.00 1.325,00 1.315,00
$1,295.00 1.315,00 1.285,00
$1,320.00 1.320,00 1.300,00
$1,345.00 1.350,00 1.320,00
$1,340.00 1.340,00 1.320,00
$1,365.00 1.370,00 1.325,00
$1,400.00 1.400,00 1.370,00
$1,360.00 1.390,00 1.360,00
$1,335.00 1.360,00 1.335,00
$1,300.00 1.330,00 1.285,00
$1,275.00 1.310,00 1.275,00
$1,265.00 1.285,00 1.255,00
$1,230.00 1.255,00 1.230,00
$1,220.00 1.255,00 1.220,00
$1,200.00 1.220,00 1.185,00
$1,235.00 1.235,00 1.210,00
$1,245.00 1.255,00 1.240,00
$1,215.00 1.245,00 1.205,00
$1,205.00 1.225,00 1.205,00
$1,170.00 1.205,00 1.160,00
$1,230.00 1.235,00 1.165,00
$1,245.00 1.265,00 1.230,00
$1,250.00 1.270,00 1.245,00
$1,265.00 1.275,00 1.200,00
$1,275.00 1.290,00 1.270,00
$1,310.00 1.310,00 1.280,00
$1,325.00 1.330,00 1.310,00
$1,315.00 1.325,00 1.315,00
$1,340.00 1.345,00 1.315,00
$1,325.00 1.345,00 1.320,00
$1,315.00 1.330,00 1.300,00
$1,325.00 1.325,00 1.300,00
$1,315.00 1.330,00 1.310,00
$1,345.00 1.345,00 1.300,00
$1,370.00 1.385,00 1.350,00
$1,340.00 1.365,00 1.340,00
$1,345.00 1.350,00 1.340,00
$1,335.00 1.355,00 1.325,00
$1,330.00 1.350,00 1.330,00
$1,335.00 1.340,00 1.315,00
$1,340.00 1.345,00 1.335,00
$1,315.00 1.340,00 1.315,00
$1,310.00 1.315,00 1.300,00
$1,330.00 1.335,00 1.315,00
$1,310.00 1.330,00 1.310,00
$1,300.00 1.325,00 1.295,00
$1,300.00 1.305,00 1.285,00
$1,310.00 1.315,00 1.300,00
$1,325.00 1.325,00 1.300,00
$1,280.00 1.330,00 1.280,00
$1,270.00 1.275,00 1.230,00
$1,295.00 1.310,00 1.270,00
$1,275.00 1.295,00 1.270,00
$1,280.00 1.305,00 1.280,00
$1,280.00 1.295,00 1.275,00
$1,315.00 1.315,00 1.295,00
$1,315.00 1.325,00 1.290,00
$1,300.00 1.315,00 1.300,00
$1,300.00 1.305,00 1.300,00
$1,290.00 1.300,00 1.285,00
$1,285.00 1.305,00 1.285,00
$1,240.00 1.275,00 1.240,00
$1,320.00 1.325,00 1.280,00
$1,325.00 1.370,00 1.325,00
$1,320.00 1.335,00 1.320,00
$1,315.00 1.345,00 1.315,00
$1,310.00 1.320,00 1.305,00
$1,305.00 1.315,00 1.305,00
$1,320.00 1.320,00 1.300,00
$1,345.00 1.355,00 1.320,00
$1,350.00 1.360,00 1.340,00
$1,340.00 1.350,00 1.340,00
$1,350.00 1.350,00 1.330,00
$1,380.00 1.380,00 1.350,00
$1,385.00 1.390,00 1.370,00
$1,385.00 1.400,00 1.380,00
$1,380.00 1.395,00 1.380,00
$1,355.00 1.390,00 1.355,00
$1,335.00 1.355,00 1.330,00
$1,350.00 1.355,00 1.340,00
$1,365.00 1.375,00 1.355,00
$1,380.00 1.385,00 1.365,00
$1,385.00 1.385,00 1.365,00
Acciones 2016 -2017

Acciones Distribucion Desviación

Año 2016 Retorno Diario
Precio Cierre Normal estándar
Dia 1 1,105.00 Nº desvíos por nivel de confianza

Nivel de confianza
Dia 2 1,085.00 -1.83% 12.0991200353

99%
Dia 3 1,060.00 -2.33% 9.9759167524
Dia 4 1,035.00 -2.39% 9.7391372437 Valor en riesgo
Dia 5 1,015.00 -1.95% 11.5836812856 VAR al 99%
Dia 6 955.00 -6.09% 0.5761870099
Dia 7 961.00 0.63% 16.325054428 Medida de Posicion
Dia 8 987.00 2.67% 9.3343876495 Curtosis positiva
Dia 9 980.00 -0.71% 15.8087923846 3.09
Dia 10 881.00 -10.65% 0.0006487821 Leptocurtica
Dia 11 923.00 4.66% 2.6772942138
Dia 12 914.00 -0.98% 15.123123196 Coeficiente de asimetria
Dia 13 950.00 3.86% 4.7929057077 0.13
Dia 14 1,020.00 7.11% 0.2199131989 Simetrica
Dia 15 958.00 -6.27% 0.4734576997
Dia 16 975.00 1.76% 13.1129686298 Medidas de tendencia central
Dia 17 990.00 1.53% 13.9701892121 Media
Dia 18 1,020.00 2.99% 8.0186815137 Mediana
Dia 19 1,030.00 0.98% 15.6303470264
Dia 20 1,020.00 -0.98% 15.1352467875
Dia 21 993.00 -2.68% 8.4927478411 Distribucion Nor
Dia 22 1,035.00 4.14% 3.9544290798
18
Dia 23 1,050.00 1.44% 14.2736058948 16
Dia 24 1,045.00 -0.48% 16.2641938453 14
Distribucion Normal

Dia 25 1,060.00 1.43% 14.3196509279 12

10
Dia 26 1,025.00 -3.36% 5.8666412009
8
Dia 27 $1,030.00 0.49% 16.511865991 6
Dia 28 $1,035.00 0.48% 16.5145492147 4
Dia 29 $1,065.00 2.86% 8.5459949927 2
0
Dia 30 $1,070.00 0.47% 16.5322180947
-15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00%
Dia 31 $1,045.00 -2.36% 9.8351536098
Retorno Diario
Dia 32 $1,155.00 10.01% 0.0029265373
Dia 33 $1,160.00 0.43% 16.5700394704
Dia 34 $1,130.00 -2.62% 8.7530980644
Dia 35 $1,165.00 3.05% 7.7546470472
Dia 36 $1,145.00 -1.73% 12.4835788507
Dia 37 $1,135.00 -0.88% 15.4051061652
Dia 38 $1,150.00 1.31% 14.6851579205
Dia 39 $1,160.00 0.87% 15.8822121997
Dia 40 $1,140.00 -1.74% 12.453352717
Dia 41 $1,170.00 2.60% 9.6398059423
Dia 42 $1,260.00 7.41% 0.1503956847
Dia 43 $1,320.00 4.65% 2.6884065857
Dia 44 $1,365.00 3.35% 6.5740898777
Dia 45 $1,425.00 4.30% 3.522573157
Dia 46 $1,340.00 -6.15% 0.5413730246
Dia 47 $1,340.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 48 $1,350.00 0.74% 16.1271746115
Dia 49 $1,360.00 0.74% 16.1372565033
Dia 50 $1,335.00 -1.86% 11.9810105331
Dia 51 $1,285.00 -3.82% 4.3555682669
Dia 52 $1,345.00 4.56% 2.8841988855
Dia 53 $1,380.00 2.57% 9.7613826735
Dia 54 $1,325.00 -4.07% 3.6472000084
Dia 55 $1,350.00 1.87% 12.6824188044
Dia 56 $1,340.00 -0.74% 15.7363894712
Dia 57 $1,290.00 -3.80% 4.3992364263
Dia 58 $1,280.00 -0.78% 15.6544249971
Dia 59 $1,310.00 2.32% 10.8345141074
Dia 60 $1,310.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 61 $1,300.00 -0.77% 15.6829108522
Dia 62 $1,290.00 -0.77% 15.6688204759
Dia 63 $1,265.00 -1.96% 11.5597872105
Dia 64 $1,265.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 65 $1,220.00 -3.62% 4.9651201369
Dia 66 $1,280.00 4.80% 2.3809688396
Dia 67 $1,290.00 0.78% 16.0615606819
Dia 68 $1,380.00 6.74% 0.3413177191
Dia 69 $1,400.00 1.44% 14.2736058948
Dia 70 $1,380.00 -1.44% 13.6118398519
Dia 71 $1,350.00 -2.20% 10.5431130314
Dia 72 $1,360.00 0.74% 16.1372565033
Dia 73 $1,380.00 1.46% 14.2022355649
Dia 74 $1,425.00 3.21% 7.1249249222
Dia 75 $1,430.00 0.35% 16.6410632484
Dia 76 $1,435.00 0.35% 16.6419798247
Dia 77 $1,415.00 -1.40% 13.740729471
Dia 78 $1,445.00 2.10% 11.7530668011
Dia 79 $1,460.00 1.03% 15.4879824012
Dia 80 $1,440.00 -1.38% 13.8279332931
Dia 81 $1,415.00 -1.75% 12.4043330713
Dia 82 $1,370.00 -3.23% 6.3235872142
Dia 83 $1,370.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 84 $1,395.00 1.81% 12.9216868857
Dia 85 $1,390.00 -0.36% 16.4384387259
Dia 86 $1,395.00 0.36% 16.6343351728
Dia 87 $1,405.00 0.71% 16.1799284926
Dia 88 $1,400.00 -0.36% 16.4417838451
Dia 89 $1,420.00 1.42% 14.3422278721
Dia 90 $1,405.00 -1.06% 14.8814963532
Dia 91 $1,445.00 2.81% 8.7550497898
Dia 92 $1,465.00 1.37% 14.4872519026
Dia 93 $1,405.00 -4.18% 3.3494706793
Dia 94 $1,415.00 0.71% 16.1888480795
Dia 95 $1,400.00 -1.07% 14.8700614386
Dia 96 $1,395.00 -0.36% 16.4401195555
Dia 97 $1,385.00 -0.72% 15.7915041222
Dia 98 $1,410.00 1.79% 12.9971819266
Dia 99 $1,395.00 -1.07% 14.8585162471
Dia 100 $1,395.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 101 $1,340.00 -4.02% 3.7677096557
Dia 102 $1,360.00 1.48% 14.1279766469
Dia 103 $1,375.00 1.10% 15.3189667156
Dia 104 $1,370.00 -0.36% 16.431545404
Dia 105 $1,420.00 3.58% 5.7265641925
Dia 106 $1,450.00 2.09% 11.7833636025
Dia 107 $1,395.00 -3.87% 4.2082756492
Dia 108 $1,395.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 109 $1,395.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 110 $1,415.00 1.42% 14.3253226699
Dia 111 $1,420.00 0.35% 16.6391974858
Dia 112 $1,425.00 0.35% 16.6401358555
Dia 113 $1,410.00 -1.06% 14.8928223803
Dia 114 $1,410.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 115 $1,400.00 -0.71% 15.8087923846
Dia 116 $1,370.00 -2.17% 10.6780244294
Dia 117 $1,385.00 1.09% 15.340437473
Dia 118 $1,395.00 0.72% 16.1708109509
Dia 119 $1,395.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 120 $1,405.00 0.71% 16.1799284926
Dia 121 $1,375.00 -2.16% 10.7111182637
Dia 122 $1,370.00 -0.36% 16.431545404
Dia 123 $1,355.00 -1.10% 14.7620106078
Dia 124 $1,350.00 -0.37% 16.4243685366
Dia 125 $1,370.00 1.47% 14.1654762685
Dia 126 $1,390.00 1.45% 14.2382728466
Dia 127 $1,395.00 0.36% 16.6343351728
Dia 128 $1,410.00 1.07% 15.3921811098
Dia 129 $1,400.00 -0.71% 15.8087923846
Dia 130 $1,410.00 0.71% 16.1844126818
Dia 131 $1,390.00 -1.43% 13.6495073782
Dia 132 $1,365.00 -1.81% 12.146521166
Dia 133 $1,360.00 -0.37% 16.427993405
Dia 134 $1,335.00 -1.86% 11.9810105331
Dia 135 $1,340.00 0.37% 16.6225480136
Dia 136 $1,325.00 -1.13% 14.6844718293
Dia 137 $1,295.00 -2.29% 10.1502377592
Dia 138 $1,300.00 0.39% 16.6129106641
Dia 139 $1,250.00 -3.92% 4.048438941
Dia 140 $1,205.00 -3.67% 4.8225725436
Dia 141 $1,235.00 2.46% 10.2288945024
Dia 142 $1,240.00 0.40% 16.5964738757
Dia 143 $1,230.00 -0.81% 15.5775461689
Dia 144 $1,260.00 2.41% 10.4391640063
Dia 145 $1,240.00 -1.60% 13.0029632558
Dia 146 $1,225.00 -1.22% 14.3888071497
Dia 147 $1,230.00 0.41% 16.5934742337
Dia 148 $1,220.00 -0.82% 15.5611201937
Dia 149 $1,275.00 4.41% 3.2489269063
Dia 150 $1,320.00 3.47% 6.1425850158
Dia 151 $1,330.00 0.75% 16.1063080591
Dia 152 $1,320.00 -0.75% 15.7102105143
Dia 153 $1,290.00 -2.30% 10.112861085
Dia 154 $1,330.00 3.05% 7.7412241052
Dia 155 $1,325.00 -0.38% 16.4149737784
Dia 156 $1,325.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 157 $1,320.00 -0.38% 16.4130356153
Dia 158 $1,320.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 159 $1,325.00 0.38% 16.6190468539
Dia 160 $1,320.00 -0.38% 16.4130356153
Dia 161 $1,295.00 -1.91% 11.7466121945
Dia 162 $1,320.00 1.91% 12.5115228361
Dia 163 $1,345.00 1.88% 12.6545920302
Dia 164 $1,340.00 -0.37% 16.4206687268
Dia 165 $1,365.00 1.85% 12.7643765285
Dia 166 $1,400.00 2.53% 9.9195401377
Dia 167 $1,360.00 -2.90% 7.6104847322
Dia 168 $1,335.00 -1.86% 11.9810105331
Dia 169 $1,300.00 -2.66% 8.6009294852
Dia 170 $1,275.00 -1.94% 11.6231565203
Dia 171 $1,265.00 -0.79% 15.6322400552
Dia 172 $1,230.00 -2.81% 7.9863354728
Dia 173 $1,220.00 -0.82% 15.5611201937
Dia 174 $1,200.00 -1.65% 12.796356668
Dia 175 $1,235.00 2.87% 8.4728903552
Dia 176 $1,245.00 0.81% 16.0058751498
Dia 177 $1,215.00 -2.44% 9.5165568072
Dia 178 $1,205.00 -0.83% 15.5357742042
Dia 179 $1,170.00 -2.95% 7.415681612
Dia 180 $1,230.00 5.00% 2.0100635889
Dia 181 $1,245.00 1.21% 14.992866881
Dia 182 $1,250.00 0.40% 16.5993950561
Dia 183 $1,265.00 1.19% 15.0493872448
Dia 184 $1,275.00 0.79% 16.043663331
Dia 185 $1,310.00 2.71% 9.1715218817
Dia 186 $1,325.00 1.14% 15.2044491177
Dia 187 $1,315.00 -0.76% 15.7034931441
Dia 188 $1,340.00 1.88% 12.626506774
Dia 189 $1,325.00 -1.13% 14.6844718293
Dia 190 $1,315.00 -0.76% 15.7034931441
Dia 191 $1,325.00 0.76% 16.1009398888
Dia 192 $1,315.00 -0.76% 15.7034931441
Dia 193 $1,345.00 2.26% 11.0924832449
Dia 194 $1,370.00 1.84% 12.7911975044
Dia 195 $1,340.00 -2.21% 10.4741059357
Dia 196 $1,345.00 0.37% 16.6236863678
Dia 197 $1,335.00 -0.75% 15.7299463873
Dia 198 $1,330.00 -0.38% 16.4168918283
Dia 199 $1,335.00 0.38% 16.6213954595
Dia 200 $1,340.00 0.37% 16.6225480136
Dia 201 $1,315.00 -1.88% 11.8658394487
Dia 202 $1,310.00 -0.38% 16.4090977804
Dia 203 $1,330.00 1.52% 14.0108444298
Dia 204 $1,310.00 -1.52% 13.3276653911
Dia 205 $1,300.00 -0.77% 15.6829108522
Dia 206 $1,300.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 207 $1,310.00 0.77% 16.0844569992
Dia 208 $1,325.00 1.14% 15.2044491177
Dia 209 $1,280.00 -3.46% 5.5242328693
Dia 210 $1,270.00 -0.78% 15.6397154709
Dia 211 $1,295.00 1.95% 12.3616214513
Dia 212 $1,275.00 -1.56% 13.1708210402
Dia 213 $1,280.00 0.39% 16.6077130687
Dia 214 $1,280.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 215 $1,315.00 2.70% 9.215591228
Dia 216 $1,315.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 217 $1,300.00 -1.15% 14.6161861173
Dia 218 $1,300.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 219 $1,290.00 -0.77% 15.6688204759
Dia 220 $1,285.00 -0.39% 16.3988801711
Dia 221 $1,240.00 -3.56% 5.1535553874
Dia 222 $1,320.00 6.25% 0.5944059026
Dia 223 $1,325.00 0.38% 16.6190468539
Dia 224 $1,320.00 -0.38% 16.4130356153
Dia 225 $1,315.00 -0.38% 16.4110770482
Dia 226 $1,310.00 -0.38% 16.4090977804
Dia 227 $1,305.00 -0.38% 16.4070975103
Dia 228 $1,320.00 1.14% 15.1923002281
Dia 229 $1,345.00 1.88% 12.6545920302
Dia 230 $1,350.00 0.37% 16.6248107414
Dia 231 $1,340.00 -0.74% 15.7363894712
Dia 232 $1,350.00 0.74% 16.1271746115
Dia 233 $1,380.00 2.20% 11.3360379287
Dia 234 $1,385.00 0.36% 16.6323074682
Dia 235 $1,385.00 0.00% 16.7248061956
Dia 236 $1,380.00 -0.36% 16.4350265339
Dia 237 $1,355.00 -1.83% 12.0922905794
Dia 238 $1,335.00 -1.49% 13.4334576388
Dia 239 $1,350.00 1.12% 15.2632486332
Dia 240 $1,365.00 1.10% 15.2970357994
Dia 241 $1,380.00 1.09% 15.329758834
Dia 242 $1,385.00 0.36% 16.6323074682
$0.00
 ECOPETROL

2.38%

os por nivel de confianza

Desvíos

2.576

Valor en riesgo
6.14%

edida de Posicion
Curtosis positiva
3.09
Leptocurtica

iciente de asimetria
Asimetria positiva
Simetrica

as de tendencia central
0.09%
0.00%

Distribucion Normal
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00%
Retorno Diario
 Nivel de confianza 99% Total Errores
VAR Modelo de Simulación
Rentabilidad 62.50% Histórica 6.13% Error Porcentual
Error Maximo Permitido 1% Eficiencia

Año 2017
Acciones
Nro Precio
Cierre Limite inferior Limite Superior Errores 2,500.00
Dia 1 1,360.00 Limite inferior Limite Superior
Dia 2 1,380.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 3 1,400.00 1295.44 1464.56 0 2,000.00
Dia 4 1,415.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 5 1,395.00 1328.30 1501.70 0
Dia 6 1,390.00 1309.52 1480.48 0 1,500.00
Dia 7 1,410.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 8 1,400.00 1323.60 1496.40 0
1,000.00
Dia 9 1,405.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 10 1,400.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 11 1,400.00 1314.22 1485.78 0 500.00
Dia 12 1,390.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 13 1,395.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 14 1,385.00 1309.52 1480.48 0 0.00
1 1 1 1 1
Dia 15 1,400.00 1300.14 1469.86 0 a 1 2 3 4
Di Di a Di a Di a Di a D
Dia 16 1,400.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
En esta grafica se puede ob
Dia 17 1,385.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
de ecopetrol del año bursati
Dia 18 1,390.00 1300.14 1469.86 0 representa el limite superior
Dia 19 1,390.00 1304.83 1475.17 0 puede obse
Dia 20 1,370.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 21 1,375.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 22 1,395.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 23 1,390.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 24 1,385.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 25 1,375.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 26 1,355.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 27 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 28 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 29 1,380.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 30 1,375.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 31 1,365.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 32 1,365.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 33 1,360.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 34 1,350.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 35 1,355.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 36 1,345.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 37 1,310.00 1262.59 1427.41 0
Dia 38 1,335.00 1229.73 1390.27 0
Dia 39 1,320.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 40 1,335.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 41 1,320.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 42 1,310.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 43 1,315.00 1229.73 1390.27 0
Dia 44 1,320.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 45 1,320.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 46 1,330.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 47 1,295.00 1248.51 1411.49 0
Dia 48 1,310.00 1215.65 1374.35 0
Dia 49 1,315.00 1229.73 1390.27 0
Dia 50 1,315.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 51 1,290.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 52 1,315.00 1210.96 1369.04 0
Dia 53 1,320.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 54 1,300.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 55 1,325.00 1220.34 1379.66 0
Dia 56 1,320.00 1243.81 1406.19 0
Dia 57 1,320.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 58 1,315.00 1239.12 1400.88 0
Dia 59 1,305.00 1234.42 1395.58 0
Dia 60 1,325.00 1225.04 1384.96 0
Dia 61 1,340.00 1243.81 1406.19 0
Dia 62 1,340.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 63 1,350.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 64 1,350.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 65 1,355.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 66 1,350.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 67 1,355.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 68 1,365.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 69 1,385.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 70 1,390.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 71 1,400.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 72 1,370.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 73 1,375.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 74 1,375.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 75 1,380.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 76 1,365.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 77 1,360.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 78 1,365.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 79 1,380.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 80 1,340.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 81 1,360.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 82 1,335.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 83 1,355.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 84 1,345.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 85 1,365.00 1262.59 1427.41 0
Dia 86 1,385.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 87 1,380.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 88 1,380.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 89 1,375.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 90 1,445.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 91 1,480.00 1356.46 1533.54 0
Dia 92 1,450.00 1389.31 1570.69 0
Dia 93 1,410.00 1361.15 1538.85 0
Dia 94 1,410.00 1323.60 1496.40 0
Dia 95 1,435.00 1323.60 1496.40 0
Dia 96 1,425.00 1347.07 1522.93 0
Dia 97 1,420.00 1337.68 1512.32 0
Dia 98 1,405.00 1332.99 1507.01 0
Dia 99 1,390.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 100 1,395.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 101 1,375.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 102 1,335.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 103 1,345.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 104 1,335.00 1262.59 1427.41 0
Dia 105 1,375.00 1253.20 1416.80 0
Dia 106 1,400.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 107 1,370.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 108 1,350.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 109 1,370.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 110 1,360.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 111 1,370.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 112 1,350.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 113 1,340.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 114 1,365.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 115 1,325.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 116 1,325.00 1243.81 1406.19 0
Dia 117 1,350.00 1243.81 1406.19 0
Dia 118 1,340.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 119 1,345.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 120 1,340.00 1262.59 1427.41 0
Dia 121 1,360.00 1257.89 1422.11 0
Dia 122 1,380.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 123 1,395.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 124 1,365.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 125 1,380.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 126 1,355.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 127 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 128 1,375.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 129 1,390.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 130 1,395.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 131 1,400.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 132 1,390.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 133 1,380.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 134 1,390.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 135 1,375.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 136 1,375.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 137 1,395.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 138 1,385.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 139 1,395.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 140 1,395.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 141 1,395.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 142 1,365.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 143 1,375.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 144 1,385.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 145 1,385.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 146 1,365.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 147 1,390.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 148 1,380.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 149 1,365.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 150 1,365.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 151 1,355.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 152 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 153 1,365.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 154 1,370.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 155 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 156 1,380.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 157 1,370.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 158 1,360.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 159 1,350.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 160 1,355.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 161 1,350.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 162 1,370.00 1267.28 1432.72 0
Dia 163 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 164 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 165 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 166 1,375.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 167 1,370.00 1290.75 1459.25 0
Dia 168 1,360.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 169 1,355.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 170 1,355.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 171 1,360.00 1271.97 1438.03 0
Dia 172 1,365.00 1276.67 1443.33 0
Dia 173 1,370.00 1281.36 1448.64 0
Dia 174 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 175 1,370.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 176 1,380.00 1286.05 1453.95 0
Dia 177 1,385.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 178 1,380.00 1300.14 1469.86 0
Dia 179 1,390.00 1295.44 1464.56 0
Dia 180 1,395.00 1304.83 1475.17 0
Dia 181 1,405.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 182 1,395.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 183 1,400.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 184 1,395.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 185 1,405.00 1309.52 1480.48 0
Dia 186 1,400.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 187 1,405.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 188 1,400.00 1318.91 1491.09 0
Dia 189 1,400.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 190 1,410.00 1314.22 1485.78 0
Dia 191 1,460.00 1323.60 1496.40 0
Dia 192 1,445.00 1370.54 1549.46 0
Dia 193 1,450.00 1356.46 1533.54 0
Dia 194 1,465.00 1361.15 1538.85 0
Dia 195 1,490.00 1375.23 1554.77 0
Dia 196 1,565.00 1398.70 1581.30 0
Dia 197 1,610.00 1469.11 1660.89 0
Dia 198 1,665.00 1511.35 1708.65 0
Dia 199 1,665.00 1562.98 1767.02 0
Dia 200 1,735.00 1562.98 1767.02 0
Dia 201 1,700.00 1628.69 1841.31 0
Dia 202 1,700.00 1595.83 1804.17 0
Dia 203 1,820.00 1595.83 1804.17 1
Dia 204 1,755.00 1708.48 1931.52 0
Dia 205 1,820.00 1647.46 1862.54 0
Dia 206 1,810.00 1708.48 1931.52 0
Dia 207 1,765.00 1699.09 1920.91 0
Dia 208 1,750.00 1656.85 1873.15 0
Dia 209 1,750.00 1642.77 1857.23 0
Dia 210 1,750.00 1642.77 1857.23 0
Dia 211 1,740.00 1642.77 1857.23 0
Dia 212 1,740.00 1633.38 1846.62 0
Dia 213 1,775.00 1633.38 1846.62 0
Dia 214 1,775.00 1666.24 1883.76 0
Dia 215 1,760.00 1666.24 1883.76 0
Dia 216 1,780.00 1652.16 1867.84 0
Dia 217 1,735.00 1670.93 1889.07 0
Dia 218 1,770.00 1628.69 1841.31 0
Dia 219 1,750.00 1661.54 1878.46 0
Dia 220 1,775.00 1642.77 1857.23 0
Dia 221 1,780.00 1666.24 1883.76 0
Dia 222 1,790.00 1670.93 1889.07 0
Dia 223 1,775.00 1680.32 1899.68 0
Dia 224 1,780.00 1666.24 1883.76 0
Dia 225 1,885.00 1670.93 1889.07 0
Dia 226 1,910.00 1769.50 2000.50 0
Dia 227 1,935.00 1792.97 2027.03 0
Dia 228 1,950.00 1816.43 2053.57 0
Dia 229 1,935.00 1830.52 2069.48 0
Dia 230 1,940.00 1816.43 2053.57 0
Dia 231 1,955.00 1821.13 2058.87 0
Dia 232 1,985.00 1835.21 2074.79 0
Dia 233 2,015.00 1863.37 2106.63 0
Dia 234 2,025.00 1891.53 2138.47 0
Dia 235 2,075.00 1900.92 2149.08 0
Dia 236 2,110.00 1947.86 2202.14 0
Dia 237 2,210.00 1980.71 2239.29 0
2074.58 2345.42 0
 1

0.4%
Eficiente

Backtesting Ecopetrol
2,500.00

2,000.00

1,500.00
Column V
Column W
1,000.00 Column X

500.00

0.00
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
a 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
Di Di a Di a Di a Di a Di a Di a Di a Di a Di a i a 1 i a 1 i a 1 i a 1 i a 1 i a 1 i a 1 i a 1 i a 1 i a 1 i a 2 i a 2 i a 2 i a 2
D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
grafica se puede observar la representacion del Backtesting. Se graficaron los valores de la accion
petrol del año bursatil anterior junto con los limites inferiores y superiores para cada dia. El amarillo
enta el limite superior, el azul el valor de accion en cada dia y el rojo el limite inferior. Lo que aqui se
puede observar es que la accion muy rara la vez sobrepasa estos limites.
 Desviación
estándar 2.38%

Nivel de confianza 99%

VAR Modelo de Simulación Histórica 6.13%
Error Maximo Permitido 1%

Para un nivel de confianza del 99% las acciones de inversion de Ecopetrol presentan
Simulación Historica que puede ser positiva o negativa en un dia del 6.13%.
Se evidencia que es un modelo eficiente ya que el error minimo permitido de acuerd
1% , los errores encontrados en el modelo fueron solo de 1 equivalente al 0.4%.

De acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos, encontramos que el nivel de confianza al 99%

es tan solo de 2.576 que es muy manejable, consideramos que el valor en riesgo es m
comparado con la aparicion de los errores que es tan solo del 2, teniendo en cuenta q
al no tener con que compararlos, un porcentaje muy bajo del solo el 0.84% mostrand
en el comportamiento de la accion en el mercado reflejando que es muy buena.
Inversión con una favorabilidad muy alta, ya que en el ultimo año el precio del petro
anotar que desde el 2 de abril de este año, se crea una incertidumbre que lleva el prec
debido a la guerra comercial entre china y EE.UU mostrando una caida del 2.37%.
Noticia tomada de: www.portafolio.co.

Por otro lado se pudo corroborar la importancia de utilizar este tipo de calculos para
futuro de nuestras acciones y portafolios, utilizando de la manera correcta, estas her
dinero o el de otras personas que asesoremos, de alguna forma podra estar protegido
 Total Errores 1
Error Porcentual 0.4%
Eficiencia Eficiente

s de inversion de Ecopetrol presentan un VAR segun el modelo de

egativa en un dia del 6.13%.
el error minimo permitido de acuerdo al nivel de confianza es del
n solo de 1 equivalente al 0.4%.

mos que el nivel de confianza al 99%, el aumento ó disminucion diaria

sideramos que el valor en riesgo es muy prudente con solo el 3.75%
es tan solo del 2, teniendo en cuenta que uno de ellos resulta al final
muy bajo del solo el 0.84% mostrando gran eficiencia y regularidad
o reflejando que es muy buena.
e en el ultimo año el precio del petroleo se mostró al alza, cabe
ea una incertidumbre que lleva el precio del petroleo a la baja
UU mostrando una caida del 2.37%.

de utilizar este tipo de calculos para asi saber cual sera el comportamiento a
ando de la manera correcta, estas herramientas y procedimientos nuestro
e alguna forma podra estar protegido.
 ANALISIS DE RESULTADOS

1. Al calcular el valor en riesgo para la acción de Ecopetrol con un nivel de confianza del 99% sería igual de
6,14%, Es decir, existe una probabilidad del 99% que un día la acción de Ecopetrol tenga una rentabilidad entre el
6,14% y el -6,14%.
2. Al calcular los limites inferiores y superiores para el año 2017 con un nivel de confianza del 99% de la serie de
datos se observa un error en la aplicación del VAR para la acción de Ecopetrol, es decir que el error porcentual es
igual al 0.42% Lo que quiere decir que con un nivel de confianza del 99% el precio de la acción de Ecopetrol para
el día siguiente se encontrará entre $1223,89 y $1496,11 pesos por lo que hay 1% de probabilidad del que el
precio de la acción se encuentre por fuera de este rango.
3. Al comparar el nivel de confianza del 99% con el error porcentual de 0.42%, se observa que ese Valor en
Riesgo es eficiente para la medición del riesgo del mercado de la acción de Ecopetrol, debido a que no alcanza el
nivel máximo permitido de errores (1%) para el nivel de confianza utilizado.