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Connor Vaughan

Dr. Harry Mokeba

POLI 2057

13 April 2018

Why Russia’s National Interests may cause a Second Cold War

From the plains of Georgia to the forests of Ukraine, Russia is known by many for its

attempts of expansion throughout the years. By most of the world, these attempts of expansion are

viewed as a threat to the west and paint Russia an evil narrative, but in the eyes of Russians and

many people who live in the surrounding areas, Russia is doing a good deed. This spilt in opinion

is what is dangerous and could lead to a second cold war; people have different world views and

see things differently in life. Before Putin took office in 2000, he vowed to rebuild Russia’s

military, reclaim former soviet lands, and restore Russia as a global power by improving their

economy. Russia seeks most of these vows through expansion for several reasons. Some of these

reasons include improving their economy, reuniting ethnic groups, and providing for a stronger

military.

Russia has a geography problem and is at a severe disadvantage when it comes to trade and

naval strength. Historically, naval power equaled power as the two were synonymous. There was

no better way for countries to project their power and grow their economy than to have a powerful

navy and merchant fleet. Many of the most powerful countries today; Japan, China, and the United

Kingdom, were ones that once had the most powerful navies in the world. There is a reason that

none of the eighteen largest economies are landlocked countries. While Russia may not be

landlocked, its ports at St. Petersburg and Archangelsk often become ice-locked during the
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majority of the year and require ice breaking ships which significantly slows the time it takes to

trade at these ports. The final major Russian port is in Vladivostok which is located on the Pacific

Ocean 5,620 miles from Moscow. As ice and distance are a problem, they aren’t the main concern

that Russia has looming over it. The biggest problem is that their access to the world’s oceans is

all through choke-points controlled by NATO or NATO allies. This has left Russia with an

economic and military incentive to expand toward warmer waters. With the latter option being

used the most, we see examples of this through Russian involvement within the Syrian Civil War

and the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. This is part of Putin’s agenda to expand the military

as obtaining more warm-water ports would allow for Russia’s navy to take up more strategic

positions across the globe.

Since the 1970s, Russian support for Syria has been prevalent. But after the fall of the

Soviet Union, their alliance diminished. As Putin took office in 2000, it was part of his agenda to

restore Russia to its former glory and expand the military. The entire reason Russia backs Assad

and is involved in Syria in the first place can be linked to their warm water port located in Tartus,

Syria. This port is a prime location Russia desperately needs since it never freezes, and naval

vessels don’t need to pass through NATO-controlled areas. Therefore, Russia will go to any length

in maintaining a good relationship with the Assad regime even if the regime is viewed to be corrupt

by many. By providing military and financial support to the Assad regime, Russia will do whatever

it takes to hold on to this key port. While Russia may not be involved directly with their own

military, they contract private Russian paramilitary groups to go assist Assad. This still proves to

be a problem as there are so many actors involved in Syria that it becomes a hot bed for trouble

and everyone involved needs to be cautious of their actions. In this article by the New York Times

it states that, “Four Russian nationals, and perhaps dozens more, were killed in fighting between
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pro-government forces in eastern Syria and members of the United States-led coalition fighting

the Islamic State, according to Russian and Syrian officials.” While they may not have been

Russian soldiers, they are still Russians and that provides for a tense situation in the middle-east.

In 2014, Ukraine was a nation overwhelmed with political instability as the populace were

protesting in the capital of Kyiv for the removal of President Yanukovych over his ties with the

Kremlin. As mass unrest came upon Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin saw this as a prime

opportunity to gain access of Crimea. Russia wanted Crimea for two reasons: it consisted of a

massive ethnic Russian population and contained a warm water port in Sevastopol. The occupation

of Crimea came days after the protests in Kyiv and Crimean independence was declared not even

a month later. As the annexation of Crimea was successful, it did not go unnoticed. The Donbass

region saw a rise in Pro-Russian sentiment and the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts broke away from

Ukraine and formed their own separate republics. While no other United Nations member aside

from Russia recognizes the sovereignty of these republics, that hasn’t stopped Russia from trying

to spread their influence there. The conflict involving the Donetsk’s People’s Republic is actually

quite infamous due to the crash of Malaysian Flight 17 which is believed to have been shot down

by Russian Nationalists over the DPR and killed around 300 people. This occurrence was met with

much disdain from the international community as the Kremlin denied being responsible and stated

that the Ukrainians were the ones who were at fault. This incident, along with the active attempts

of instituting loyal puppet governments in the Donbass region, are examples of a possible second

cold war. Unlike the situation in Syria, no other foreign actors are involved. This means that Russia

can send in its own troops alongside the separatists in order for their troops to gain real-life combat

experience. Even to this day, Russian troops and Russian backed separatists occupy this region
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and show no signs of returning it to Ukraine despite Ukraine’s many attempts both diplomatically

and militarily.

Following the Russian Revolution on 1917, Georgia declared itself an independent state.

And while the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are officially a part of that state, they have

had several separatist movements since Georgian independence. Much like the case of the people’s

republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, Russia is the only United Nations member to acknowledge the

sovereignty of these two regions. While Georgia is one of those countries that doesn’t make

international headlines very often, its still a place we should keep an eye on. In 2008, Georgia

conducted a military operation inside South Ossetia, and Russia decided to intervene. Russia

claimed that Mikhail Saakashvili committed genocide against ethnic Russians in the area and they

intervened to defend those people.

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Works Cited

New York Times- Dozens of Russians are Believed Killed in US-backed Syria Attack

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/world/europe/russia-syria-

dead.html?action=click&contentCollection=Middle%20East&module=Trending&version=Full&

region=Marginalia&pgtype=article