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Short-Term Power Load Point Prediction Based on the Sharp
Degree and Chaotic RBF Neural Network
Copyright © 2015 Dongxiao Niu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
In order to realize the predicting and positioning of short-term load inflection point, this paper made reference to related research
in the field of computer image recognition. It got a load sharp degree sequence by the transformation of the original load sequence
based on the algorithm of sharp degree. Then this paper designed a forecasting model based on the chaos theory and RBF neural
network. It predicted the load sharp degree sequence based on the forecasting model to realize the positioning of short-term load
inflection point. Finally, in the empirical example analysis, this paper predicted the daily load point of a region using the actual
load data of the certain region to verify the effectiveness and applicability of this method. Prediction results showed that most of
the test sample load points could be accurately predicted.
Computing the
Identify the
largest Lyapunov
chaos
index
3.1. Phase Space Reconstruction and Chaos Identification. delay time 𝜏, 𝐼(𝜏). When the 𝐼(𝜏) meets the minimum for
Extend the time series to three-dimension or higher dimen- the first time, the lag time is the time delay of phase space
sion space by using delay-coordinate method to reconstruct reconstruction.
state space which can find information and rules contained
in the original time series. And by “Takens” theorem, the 3.1.2. Embedding Dimension Determined by Cao Method.
dynamic characteristic of attractor of the system can be There are some methods to determine embedding dimension,
restored in the sense of topological equivalence [29, 30]. such as the pseudo adjacent point method. G-P algorithm,
Assume that the time sequence is 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , 𝑥3 , . . . , 𝑥𝑛 ; properly and C-C method. Cao algorithm is a mature method which
select embedding dimension 𝑚 and time delay 𝜏; the recon- was put forward by Cao Liangyue [32]. When using Cao
structed phase space is as follows: method, firstly set a delay time, and the embedding dimen-
𝑇 sion and delay time are relatively independent [33]. Define
𝑌1 = (𝑥1 , 𝑥1+𝜏 , . . . , 𝑥1+(𝑚−1)𝜏 ) ,
𝑋𝑖 (𝑚 + 1) − 𝑋𝑛(𝑖,𝑚) (𝑚 + 1)
𝑇
𝑌2 = (𝑥2 , 𝑥2+𝜏 , . . . , 𝑥2+(𝑚−1)𝜏 ) , 𝑎 (𝑖, 𝑚) =
. (8)
𝑋𝑖 (𝑚) − 𝑋𝑛(𝑖,𝑚) (𝑚)
(6)
.. In the function, 𝑋𝑖 (𝑚+1) is a vector that 𝑖 is in a space of (𝑚+
.
1) dimensions, 𝑛(𝑖, 𝑚) is the integer that makes 𝑋𝑛(𝑖,𝑚) (𝑚) be
𝑌𝑁 = (𝑥𝑁, 𝑥𝑁+𝜏 , . . . , 𝑥𝑁+(𝑚−1)𝜏 ) ,
𝑇 the nearest neighbor domain of 𝑋𝑖 (𝑚) in the 𝑚-dimensional
reconstruction space. 𝑛(𝑖, 𝑚) depends on 𝑖 and 𝑚; and ‖ ∙ ‖
of which 𝑁 = 𝑛 − (𝑚 − 1) ∗ 𝜏 is the length of the vector means the Euclidean distance.
sequence. Define the average of all 𝑎(𝑖, 𝑚) as
1 𝑁−𝑚𝜏
3.1.1. Delay Time Calculated by Mutual Information Method. 𝐸 (𝑚) = ∑ 𝑎 (𝑖, 𝑚) . (9)
Mutual information method is a kind of commonly used 𝑁 − 𝑚𝜏 𝑖=1
methods to calculate delay time [31]. It is suitable for large
Define the change of 𝑚 dimensional to 𝑚 + 1 dimensional as
data sets and nonlinear problem. Set offline random variables
𝑋, 𝑌. The mutual information 𝐼(𝑋, 𝑌) is as follows: 𝐸 (𝑚 + 1)
𝐸1 (𝑚) = . (10)
𝐼 (𝑋, 𝑌) = 𝐻 (𝑋) + 𝐻 (𝑌) − 𝐻 (𝑋, 𝑌) , 𝐸 (𝑚)
𝑞 (7) If the time series are generated by the chaotic attractor, when
𝐻 (𝑋) = ∑𝑃 (𝑥𝑖 ) log 𝑃 (𝑥𝑖 ) . 𝐸1(𝑚) saturated with the increases of 𝑚, the value of 𝑚 + 1
𝑖=1 is the minimum embedding dimension. Define 𝐸2(𝑚) to
distinguish deterministic chaotic signal and random signal:
In the functions, 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) is the probability of happening 𝑥𝑖 ,
𝑞 is the total number of possible things or states, and the 1 𝑁−𝑚𝜏
𝐸∗ (𝑚) = ∑ 𝑥 − 𝑥𝑛(𝑖,𝑚)+𝑚𝜏 ,
logarithmic function often takes 2 for base number. 𝑁 − 𝑚𝜏 𝑖=1 𝑖+𝑚𝜏
For the time series 𝑥𝑖 and delay time 𝜏 with an interval (11)
of 𝑛, set 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) as the probability of the 𝑥𝑖 in {𝑥𝑖 }, and 𝐸∗ (𝑚 + 1)
𝑃(𝑥𝑖+𝜏 ), the probability of 𝑥𝑖+𝜏 in {𝑥𝑖 }, can be calculated 𝐸2 (𝑚) = .
𝐸∗ (𝑚)
through the frequency in the corresponding time sequence,
and 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑖+𝜏 ), the joint probability of common presence For the random sequence, to all of the values of 𝑚, the values
of 𝑥𝑖 and 𝑥𝑖+𝜏 in these two sequences, can be found in the of 𝐸2(𝑚) always equal about 1, while for the chaotic sequence,
corresponding grid on plane (𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑖+𝜏 ). Therefore, the mutual the values of 𝐸2(𝑚) are related to values of 𝑚. Namely, values
information 𝐼(𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑖+𝜏 ) can be regarded as the function of of 𝐸2(𝑚) are not constant to all of 𝑚 in chaotic sequence [34].
4 Mathematical Problems in Engineering
3.1.3. Identify the Chaos by Computing the Largest Lyapunov Input layer Hidden layer Output layer
Exponent. The fundamental characteristics of chaos are the
extreme sensitivity to initial values. The sensitivity can
be measured by the exponent of Lyapunov. It reflects the
divergence speed close to the initial orbit. The exponent
of Lyapunov exponent reflects the contracting and tensile X1
properties of the system in all directions. This paper calculates
Lyapunov exponent based on the Wolf method to judge
whether the original sequence is with chaos characteristics
X2 YN
[35]. Wolf method is based on phase trajectory, phase plane,
and phase volume. The process is as follows.
(1) Determine the embedding dimension and delay time XN
to reconstruct phase space.
(2) Track the evolution of the distance from initial point
and its closest point. Limit the short separation.
(3) Continue to the front steps until the end of the time
series.
(4) Get the maximum Lyapunov exponent. Figure 3: RBF neural network structure.
3.2.1. The Basic Principle of RBF Neural Network. RBF neural 2200
network is a feed-forward neural network consisting of input 2000
Load (MW)
(1) Establish the Network. Determine the input and output Figure 4: The original load trend chart of a region.
according to the calculated embedding dimension 𝑚 and
delay time 𝜏. The input is a vector [𝑥𝑖 , 𝑥𝑖+𝜏 , . . . , 𝑥𝑖+(𝑚−1)𝜏 ]. The
output is a data 𝑥2+(𝑚−1)𝜏 . RBF neural network is a mapping
𝑌 = 𝑥𝑛+2 is the actual predictive value of the sequence. Then
from 𝑚-dimension to 1-dimension. In this paper, the number
iterate the network with the predictive value as a new network
of input layer nodes is 𝑚. The number of output layer nodes
input.
is 1. The input matrix 𝑋 and output matrix 𝑌 are as follows:
0.7
0.6
0.5 10−1
0.4
0.3 10−2
0.2
0.1 10−3
0
96 192 288 384 10−4
0 50 100 150 200 250
May 2 May 9 May 16 May 23
285 epochs
Figure 5: The sharp degree of load sequence diagram chart.
Train
Best
Goal
Cao method of minimum embedding dimension
1.4
Figure 7: The convergence curve in training process.
1.2
1
E1 and E2
1 1
0.9
0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Point Point
0.6 2400
0.5
2200
0.4
The error value
2000
Load (MW)
0.3
1800
0.2
0.1 1600
0 1400
−0.1 1200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Point Point
Error curve The original load curve
Figure 9: Error graph of chaotic RBF inflection. Figure 11: The inflection point location map according to the pre-
dicted results.
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Conflict of Interests [12] H. J. Sadaei, R. Enayatifar, A. H. Abdullah, and A. Gani, “Short-
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests term load forecasting using a hybrid model with a refined
exponentially weighted fuzzy time series and an improved
regarding the publication of this paper.
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This paper is supported by the National Science Foundation 143–149, 2009.
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