1.

Using a tree diagram,

R
B
R
G
R
3
9 B
B
4
4
8 G
9

G R
3
8
B
G
 3 4   4 3
p(BG or GB) =        (M1) (M1)
9 8  9 8
1 1 1
=  = (A1)
6 6 3

4 3
OR p(BG or GB) = 2 ×  (M1)(M1)
9 8
1
= (A2)
3
[4]

2. Using a tree diagram,

3 Argentine
English 6 (3)
(6)
6
21

12
15 15 Argentine
21 (12)
Spanish
(15) (M2)
Let p(S) be the probability that the pupil speaks Spanish.
Let p(A) be the probability that the pupil is Argentine.
Then, from diagram,
12
p(SA) = (A1)
15
4
= (A1)
5

p ( S  A)
OR p(SA) = (M1)
p ( A)
12 15
= (M1)(A1)
21 21
OR
E(6) A S(15)

3 3 0 12 3

12
p(SA) = (A1)
15
4
= (A1)
5
[4]

3. Let D be the event that the patient has the disease and S be the event that
the new blood test shows that the patient has the disease. Let D be the
complement of D, i.e. the patient does not have the disease.
Now the given probabilities can be written as
p(SD) = 0.99, p(D) = 0.0001, p(SD) = 0.05. (A1)(A1)(A1)
Since the blood test shows that the patient has the disease,
we are required to find p(DS).
By Bayes’ theorem,
p ( S D) p ( D )
p(DS) = (M1)
p( S D ) p( D )  p( S D ) p ( D)
(0.99)(0.0001)
= (M1)
(0.99)(0.0001)  (0.05)(1  0.0001)
= 0.001976...= 0.00198 (3 s.f.) (A1)
OR
0.99 S

D
0.0001
0.01 S
0.05 S
0.9999 D

0.95 S (A3)
Note: Award (A1) for 0.99, (A1) for 0.0001, (A1) for 0.05

Therefore p(S) = 0.0001 × 0.99 + 0.9999 × 0.05

= 0.0500939 (A1)
0.0001  0.99
p(DS) = (M1)
0.0500939
= 0.00198 (3 s.f.) (A1)
[6]
4. Required probability = p(A plays a higher ranked team and wins) +
p(A plays a lower ranked team and wins) (A1)
3 2 6 3
=    (M1)(A1)
9 5 9 4
19
= (A1)
30
[4]

5. Method 1: (Venn diagram) (M1)

U
A B

0.3 0.3

P(A  B) = P(A)P(B) (M1)

0.3 = 0.6 × P(B)
P(B) = 0.5
Therefore, P(A  B) = 0.8 (A1) (C3)
Method 2: P(A  B) = P(A) – P(A  B)
0.3 = P(A) – 0.3
P(A) = 0.6 (A1)
P(A  B) = P(A)P(B) since A, B are independent
0.3 = 0.6 × P(B)
P(B) = 0.5 (A1)
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
= 0.6 + 0.5 – 0.3
= 0.8 (A1) (C3)
[3]
6. Let P(RL) be the probability that it is raining given that the girl is late.

L –1 × –2 = –1
4 3 6
–23
R
–14
–13
L’
–15 L
–3
–34 × –15 = 20
–34
R’
–45
L’
P( R  L)
P(RL) =
P( L )
1/ 6
P(RL) = (M1)(A1)
1 / 6  3 / 20
(using a tree diagram or by calculation)
10
= (A1)
19
[3]

7.
Y
2
–
5
–2 X Y’
3 –3
5 1
–
4
–1 X’ Y
3
–3
4
Y’
2 3 1 3
(a) P(Y) =    (M1)
3 5 3 4
13
= (A1) (C2)
25

4
(b) P(X  Y) = 1 – P(X  Y) = 1 –
15
11
= (A1) (C1)
15
[3]

2
 3 1 9
8. (a) P(X = 3) =     (= 0.141 to 3 s.f.) (M1)(A1) 2
 4 4 64
 (b) Let the probability of at least three misses before scoring twice = P(3 m)
Let S mean “Score” and M mean “Miss”.
P(3 m) = 1 – [P(0 misses) + P(1 miss) + P(2 misses)] (M1)
= 1 – [P(SS) + P(SMS or MSS) + P(MMSS or MSMS or SMMS)] (M2)
 1  2 1 3 1 3 
2 2 2
= 1 –    2     3     (A2)
 4   4   4   4   4  
189
= (= 0.738 to 3 s.f.) (A1) 6
256

1 1 3 1 32
(c) E(x) = 
for all x
xP(x)  1 
4
 2    3 
4 4 4 4
 ... (M1)(A1)

1 3 32 
= 1  2   3   ... (A1)

4 4 4 
2
1 3
= 1   (using the given result) (M1)
4 4
2
11 1 2
=    (4) = 4 (A1)(AG) 5
4 4 4
[13]

9.
First shop Second shop Probability

Left umbrella
1 1
– –
3 3

Left umbrella –2
1– 9
3
–2
3
Did not
leave umbrella 2–
3 Did not –4
leave umbrella 9 (M1)(A1)
2
9 2
Required probability =  . (A1)(C3)
2 1 5

9 3
[3]
10. (a) (i) P(Bridget wins on her first throw)
= P(Ann does not throw a ‘6’) × P(Bridget throws a ‘6’) (M1)
5 1
= 
6 6
5
= (C1)
36
(ii) P(Ann wins on her second throw)
= P(Ann does not throw a ‘6’) × P(Bridget does not throw a ‘6’) ×
P(Ann throws a ‘6’) (M1)
5 5 1
=  
6 6 6
25
= (C1)
216
(iii) P(Ann wins on her nth throw)
= P(neither Ann nor Bridget win on their first (n – 1) throws) ×
P(Ann throws a ‘6’ on her nth throw) (M1)
2( n 1)
 5 1
=   . (C1) 6
 6 6

(b) p = P(Ann wins)

= P(Ann wins on her first throw) + P(both Ann and Bridget do not
win on their first throws) × P(Ann wins from then on) (M1)(R2)
2
1 5
=   ×p (C1)
6 6
1 25
=  p (AG)
6 36
OR
p = P(Ann wins on first throw) + P(Ann wins on second throw)
+ P(Ann wins on third throw) + … . (M1)
2 4
1 5 1 5 1
=        + ... (C2)
6 6 6 6 6
1
1 25  1  5   1   5   1  
2 4
=  6 )
            ... (or (C1)
6 36  6  6   6   6   6   25
1–
36
1 25
=  p , as required. (AG) 4
6 36

11 1 6
(c) From part (b), p  p . (C1)
36 6 11
5
Therefore, P(Bridget wins) = 1 – p = . (C1) 2
11
 (d) P(Ann wins more games than Bridget)
= P(Ann wins 4 games) + P(Ann wins 5 games) + P(Ann wins 6 games)(M2)
4 2 5 6
 6  6   5   6  6   5   6 
=               (M2)
 4  11   11   5  11   11   11 
64
= (15 × 25 + 36 × 5 + 36)
116
= 0.432. (A1) 5
[17]

11.

>25°(0.3)

R(0.2)

>25°(0.6)
R’(0.8)

(M2)
P (> 25°) = 0.2 × 0.3 + 0.8 × 0.6 = 0.54 (M1)(A1)
0.06 1
P (R >25°) = = (or 0.111) (M1)(A1) (C6)
0.54 9
[6]

1
12. (a) (i) P(Alan scores 9) = (= 0.111) (A1)
9
2
1  1 
(ii) P(Alan scores 9 and Belle scores 9) =      =
 9   81 
(= 0.0123) (A1) 2
2 2 2 2
 1   2   6   2 
(b) (i) P(Same score) =   +   +…+   +…+  
 36   36   36   36 
2
 1 
+  (M1)
 36 
73
= (= 0.113) (A1)
648
 1  73 
(ii) P(A>B) = 1 –  (M1)
2  648 
575
(= 0.444) (A1) 4
1296
x
(c) (i) P(One number  x) = (with some explanation) (R1)
6
4
 x
P(X  x) = P(All four numbers  x) =   (M1)(AG)
6
4 4
 x  x – 1
(ii) P(X = x) = P(X  x) – P(X  x – l) =   –  
6  6 
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = x) 1 15 65 175 369 671
1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296

(A1)(A1)(A1)
Note: Award (A3) if table is not completed but calculation of
E(X) in part (iii) is correct.

1 15 671
(iii) E(X) = 1 × +2× +…+6× (M1)
1296 1296 1296
6797
= (= 5.24) (A1) 7
1296
[13]

13. (a) The number of multiples of 4 is 250. (M1)

Required probability = 0.25. (A1) (C2)
(b) The number of multiples of 4 and 6 is (M1)
the number of multiples of 12 (A1)
= 83. (A1)
Required probability = 0.083 (A1) (C4)
[6]

14. (a) At a building site the probability, P(A), that all materials arrive on time is 0.85. The
probability, P(B), that the building will be completed on time is 0.60. The probability that
the materials arrive on time and that the building is completed on time is 0.55.

(i) Show that events A and B are not independent.

(ii) All the materials arrive on time. Find the probability that the building will not be
completed on time.
(5)
 (b) There was a team of ten people working on the building, including three electricians and
two plumbers. The architect called a meeting with five of the team, and randomly selected
people to attend. Calculate the probability that exactly two electricians and one plumber
were called to the meeting.
(2)

(c) The number of hours a week the people in the team work is normally distributed with a
mean of 42 hours. 10% of the team work 48 hours or more a week. Find the probability
that both plumbers work more than 40 hours in a given week.
(8)
(Total 15 marks)

15. (a) (i) To be independent P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B) (R1)

P(A) × P(B) = (0.85) (0.60)
= 0.51
but P(A  B) = 0.55 (A1)
P(A  B)  P(A) × P(B)
Hence A and B are not independent. (AG)
(ii)

A B

0.30 0.55 0.05

0.10

P ( B ' A)
P(BA) = (M1)
P( A)
0.30
= (M1)
0.85
6
= (= 0.353) (A1) 5
17
  3  2  5 
   
2 1 2
(b) Probability of 2 electricians and 1 plumber =     (M1)
10 
 
5
60  5 
=   0.238  (A1)
252  21 
OR
5!  3  2  2  5  4 
Probability of 2 electricians and 1 plumber =       (M1)
2!2!  10  9  8  7  6 
5
= (= 0.238) (A1) 2
21
(c) X = number of hours worked.
X ~ N (42, σ2)
P(X  48) = 0.10 (AG)
P(X < 48) = 0.90 (M1)
(z) = 90
z = 1.28
(z = 1.28155) (A1)
(Answers given to more than 3 significant figures will be accepted.)
X – 48 – 42
z= => 1.28 = (M1)
 
=>  = 4.69 (Accept  = 4.68) (A1)

P(X > 40) = P  Z 
40 – 42 
 (M1)
 4.69 
= 0.665 (A1)
OR
P(X > 40) = 0.665 (G2)
Therefore, the probability that one plumber works more than 40 hours
per week is 0.665.
The probability that both plumbers work more than 40 hours per week
= (0.665)2 (M1)
= 0.443 (Accept 0.442 or 0.444) (A1) 8
[15]

16. (a) 0.88 = 0.4 + P(B) – 0.4P(B) (M1)(A1)

0.6P(B) = 0.48 = > P(B) = 0.8 (M1)(A1) (C4)
(b) METHOD 1
P(A  B) – P(A  B) = 0.88 – 0.32 (M1)
= 0.56 (A1) (C2)
METHOD 2
P(A)P(B ) + P(A)P(B) = 0.4 × 0.2 + 0.6 × 0.8 (M1)
= 0.56 (A1) (C2)
[6]
17. (a) Probability = 0.2 × 0.66 + 0.8 × 0.75 (M1)(A1)
= 0.732 (A1) (C3)
P(Mon  catches train)
(b) Probability = (M1)
P(catches train)
0.2  0.66
= (A1)
0.732
 11 
= 0.180    (A1) (C3)
 61 
[6]

2
18. (a) Probability that Jack wins on his first throw = (or 0.667). (A1) 1
3

1 2
(b) Probability that Jill wins on her first throw:  (M1)
3 3
2
= (or 0.222 ). (A1) 2
9
(c) EITHER
Probability that Jack wins the game:
2 1 1 2
       + ... (M1)
3 3 3 3
2 1
=  (A1)
3 1
1
9
3
= (A1) (N2)
4
OR
If p is the probability that Jack wins the game then
2 1 1
p =   p, (M1)
3 3 3
2
so that p = 3 (A1)
1
1
9
3
= (A1) 3
4
[6]
19. (a) P(RR) =  2  1  (M1)
 5  4 

= 1 A1 2
10

(b) P(RR) = 4  3  2 A1
4  n 3  n 15
Forming equation 12 × 5 = 2 (4 + n)(3 + n) (M1)
12 + 7n + n2 = 90 A1
 n2 + 7n – 78 = 0 A1
n=6 AG 4
(c) EITHER
1
P(A) = P(B) = 2 A1
3 3
P(RR) = P(A  RR) + P(B  RR) (M1)

=  1  1    2  2 
 3  10   3  15 

= 11 A1
90
OR
1 RR
10
1 A
3

2 RR
2 15
3 B

P(RR) = 1 × 1 + 2 × 2 M1
3 10 3 15

= 11 A1 3
90
(d) P(1 or 6) = P(A) M1
P( A  RR)
P(A|RR) = (M1)
P ( RR )
 
  1  1  
  3  10  
   
= M1
11
90
= 3 A1 4
11
[13]
20. A team of five students is to be chosen at random to take part in a debate. The team is to be
chosen from a group of eight medical students and three law students. Find the probability that

(a) only medical students are chosen;

(b) all three law students are chosen.

Working:

Answers:

(a) …………………………………………..

(b) ..................................................................

(Total 6 marks)

 8
 
5  8 7  6 5 4 
21. (a) P (only medical students)       (M1)(A1)
   11  10  9  8  7 
11
 
5
4
= (= 0.121) (A1) (C3)
33
(b) METHOD 1
 3  8 
  
3 2
P (3 law students)     (M1)(A1)
11
 
5

28  2 
   33  0.0606  (A1) (C3)
462  

METHOD 2

8  7  3  2 1  5 
P (3 law students)    (M1)(A1)
11 10  9  8  7  3 

28  2 
P (3 law students)    33  0.0606  (A1) (C3)
462  
[6]
22. METHOD 1

A B

a b c

c 1 b
  c (A1)
bc 3 2

3
a  b  c 1  a  b 1 (A1)
2

6
also a  b 
7

2 1 4
b c (a  not needed) (A1)(A1)
7 7 7

3
P( B )  b  c  (  0.429) (M1)(A1) (C6)
7
METHOD 2
P( A  B )
P( A B)  (M1)
P(B )

1
P (B)  P( A  B ) (A1)
3

P ( A  B )  P ( A)  1 (M1)(A1)

1 6
P (B )   1 (A1)
3 7

3
P (B)  (  0.429) (A1) (C6)
7
[6]