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This post is the second guest post by my friend Connor Leonard, in what I
hope to be a somewhat regular “column” here at BHI (by regular, I mean as
often as Connor decides to put the proverbial pen to paper and share his
insights with us). Based on the quality of his work, he’s welcome back
anytime. Connor and I live in Raleigh, NC, and get together regularly to share
investment ideas. I encourage you to reach out to us if you’d like to meet up
sometime for coffee. My contact info is on this site, and his contact info can
be found at the bottom of this post.
What follows is what I’ll call “Part Two” to his excellent post on Reinvestment
Moats vs. “Legacy Moats”.
A couple of months ago John invited me to contribute a guest post to Base Hit
investing (link) where I discussed the difference between Legacy Moats and
Reinvestment Moats. While I encourage you to read the post for the full
explanation, below is a quick summary:
Low/No Moat: The typical business you encounter during the day likely
falls into this bucket, such as your average convenience store or insurance
agency. These are perfectly fine businesses and likely provide employment
within the community and a solid product or service to customers. However
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Reinvestment Moat: This is the rare company that has all of the benefits of
a Legacy Moat along with ample opportunities to deploy incremental capital
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Capital-Light Compounders
This makes sense, if a company keeps 50% of earnings and reinvests that
capital at a 20% rate, over time that should add about 10% to annual earnings
power, thereby increasing intrinsic value by 10%. However there are a
handful of companies that defy this logic. These “Capital-Light
Compounders” are able to increase earnings power with zero or even negative
capital employed. How do these companies accomplish this feat?
Note: For this calculation I advocate using round numbers and rough
estimates for excess cash. Working capital is dynamic and it is not necessary
to calculate a precise number down to the last dollar to arrive at a general
conclusion[ii].
A typical business will have a positive number for this calculation, however
certain companies will be consistently negative – these are the ones we are
looking for. Negative working capital often means the customers are paying
the company cash up front for goods or services that will be delivered at a
later time. This is a powerful concept for a growing company, as the
customers are essentially financing the growth through pre-payments. Best of
all the interest rate on this financing is 0%, pretty tough to beat. It is common
to see negative working capital in subscription-based business models where
customers pay up for recurring service or access. Some examples include
SiriusXM, Verisk Analytics, and Atlassian. Because revenue is recognized
when the service is performed, which is after the cash comes in, these
businesses typically have operating cash flow that exceeds net income.
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terrible business.”
So if you run a Capital Light Compounder that is fortunate to have all of these
characteristics, what is the playbook for maximizing intrinsic value per share?
One option would be to allocate the excess capital into mergers and
acquisitions in an effort to grow earnings power. The issue here is that if you
start with an exceptional business like Visa or Moody’s, it’s almost certain
that the acquired business is inferior and will dilute the overall quality.
Additionally, acquisitions can end up becoming a distraction that take
management’s time and focus away from the core “crown jewel” business.
The classic example of this pitfall is Coca-Cola in the 1980’s, which allocated
proceeds from the core business into acquiring Columbia Studios before
refocusing a few years later.
This strategy creates a “double dip” for shareholders that can greatly enhance
the compounding of intrinsic value per share. Imagine you own shares in a
Capital-Light Compounder that is about to begin a decade long run of share
cannibalization. Over that stretch, the business may increase earnings power
at 10% per year, which would typically result in a ~10% return to an owner if
the valuation multiples were held constant. However in this case additional
capital was not required to grow, so instead 100% of earnings power was
available for ongoing share repurchases, raising the IRR on the investment to
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Note: even the best Capital-Light Compounders require some annual capital
expenditures, so the amount of earnings allocated to share repurchases will
probably be less than 100%. This example is more for illustrative purposes.
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