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Special issue on
DEMONETIZATION IN INDIA
-The Philosophy, Practice and Problems
Edited by
P.RamaKrishnamRaju
P.V.Rama Raju
INVITATION
UGC Sponsored
National Seminar on
DEMONETIZATION IN INDIA
-The Philosophy, Practice and Problems
16-12-2016
Organised by
Departments of Commerce
Departments of Commerce
D.N.R. College (Autonomous)
Bhimavaram – 534 202
West Godavari District,
Andhra Pradesh.
UGC sponsored one Day National Seminar on
DEMONETIZATION IN INDIA
-The Philosophy, Practice and Problems
16-12-2016
SEMINAR ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
PATRONS
Sri G.V.Narasimha Raju, President, Sri G. Satyanarayana Raju,
D.N.R. College Association Secretary & Correspondent,
D.N.R. College Association
All Members of the Governing Body, D.N.R. College Association
Chair Person Seminar Convener:
Sri P.Rama Krishnam Raju, Sri P.V.Rama Raju, In-charge,
Principal (FAC) Dept.of Commerce
Seminar Hon’ry Chairman:
Dr.J.Chandra Prasad, Retd Principal
Co-Conveners
Sri M.V.Raghupathi Raju
Dr. K.A.S.P.Rama Raju, Vice Vice Principal
Principal
Members
Dr. K.V.V.A.P.T.Surya Rao, Former Director, PG Courses &
Reader, PG Economics
Dr. A.Krishna Mohan, Reader, P.G.Dept., of Commerce
Dr. A. Naga Raju, Reader, P.G.Dept., of Commerce
Sri P.Hari Krishnam Raju, Lecturer in Commerce
Sri. J.Suresh, Lecturer in Commerce
Sri D.Srinivasa Raju, Lecturer in Commerce
Sri P. Bhanu Prasad, HOD of Commerce, Sir CRR College
Sri V.Vijaya Kumar, Lecturer in Commerce, Sir CRR College
Sri P. Gangadhar Rao, HOD of Commerce, YN College
Dr. U.Madhuri, Lecturer in Commerce
Smt. D.V.Madhavi, Lecturer in Commerce
Smt. R.Radha Rani, Lecturer in Commerce
Smt. K.Sarika, Lecturer in Commerce
Smt. P.Naga Venu, Lecturer in Commerce
Ms. D. Naga Lakshmi, Lecturer in Commerce
Smt. M.L.V.A.Priya, Lecturer in Commerce
Sri K.Satyanarayana, Lecturer in Commerce
Sri N.Bhagya Raj, Lecturer in Commerce
EDITORIAL BOARD
Editor-in-Chief
Dr. T. V. Ramana
Andhra University Campus, Kakinada - Andhra Pradesh, India, 533 005
ADVISORY COUNCIL
Prof. M. SundaraRao, Chairman, Board of Dr.V.Mahipal, Formerly Executive Director (plg)
Studies, Dept. of Economics, Andhra University, & Associate Professor, Assosa University Ethiopia
Visakhapatnam
Prof. R.SudarshanaRao, Dept. of Economics, Dr.K.VictorBabu, Guest Faculty, Department of
Andhra University, Visakhapatnam and member of Philosophy, Andhra University – Visakhapatnam;
State Finance Commission, Govt. of Andhra Chief Editor of IJMER and Associate Editor of
Pradesh IJAR
Dr.P.SubbaRao, Director (i/c), Centre for Study Dr.J.Chandra Prasad, Director, S.V. Institute of
of Social Inclusion and Exclusive Policy, Andhra Technology, Tanuku, West Godavar District, AP
University, Visakhapatnam
Dr.K. Radha Pushpavathi, Dept. of Economics,
Prof. Y.Somalatha, Special Officer, Andhra S.K.S.D.MahilaKakalasalaTanuku, West Godavari
University Campus, Kakinada, AP District, AP
Prof.B.Kuberudu, Dept. of Management Studies, Dr. Zoran Vu, ISI, Rector, St. Gregory Nazianzen
Andhra University Campus, Kakinada Orthodox Institute Universidad Rural de
Guatemala, GT, U.S.A
Prof. Roger Wiemers, Professor of Education, Dr Leo O.N. Edegoh, Department of Mass
Lipscomb University, Nashville, USA Communication,
ChukwuemekaOdumegwuOjukwu University, Uli,
Dr.A.Heidari,Faculty of Chemistry, California Anambra State, Nigeria
South University (CSU)Irvine, California, USA
Dr.V.V. RatnajiRaoChowdary, Dept. of
Prof. Josef HOCI-ITL, Department of Political Business & Economics, Wollo University Dessie,
Economy University of Vienna, Vienna & Ex. Ethiopia
Member, Austrian Parliament, Austria
Dr.K.Chaitanya, Department of CHEMISTRY,
Prof. Alexander Chumakov, Chair of Nanjing University of Science and Technology,
Philosophy Department Russian Philosophical China
Society, Russia
Dr.I.Ketutdonder, Depasar State Institute of
Prof. Fidel Gutierrez Vivanco, Founder and Hindu Dharma, Indonesia
President Escuela Virtual de AsesoriaFilosofica
M.Ebrahimi, M.Ebrahimi, Department of
Prof. Igor Kondrshin, Member of the Russian Industrial Engineering, Amirkabir University of
Philosophical Society, the Russian Humanist Technology, 424 Hafez Avenue, 15916-34311,
Society and Expert of the UNESCO, Moscow, Tehran, Iran
Russia
Dr. Zoran Vu, ISI Rector, St. Gregory Nazianzen
Orthodox Institute Universidad Rural de
Guatemala, GT,U.S.A
Prof. M. SundaraRao, Chairman, Board of Prof. J.V.K.V. Pandit, Dept. of. Political Science
Studies, Dept. of Economics, Andhra University, &Public Adnm, Andhra University Campus,
Visakhapatnam Kakinada
Prof.P.DakshinaMurty, Prof.in Physics, Dr. A. Srinivas, Rajiv Ganghi Institute of Law
University College of Engineering, Jawaharlal College & Dept. of Humanities, JNTUK
Nehru Technological University, Kakinada
Dr. KompellaVenkataRamana; Dept. of
Dr. T.Ashok, Dept. of English, Andhra University Computer Science and Systems Engineering,
Campus, Kakinada, AP Andhra University; India
Prof. D. Satyanarayana, BVC Institute of Dr. K. V. RamanaMurty, Dept. of Management
Technology & Science, Amalapuram, AP Studies, Andhra University Campus, Kakinada
Abstract:
Demonetization is a process by which a series of currency will not be legal
tender. The series of currency will not be acceptable as valid currency. The
demonetization was done in as an effort to stop counterfeiting of the current currency
notes allegedly used for funding terrorism, as well as a crackdown on black money in
the country. The move is also aimed at reducing/eradicating the corruption, drug
menace, and smuggling and to eliminate terrorist and extremist activities in India.
The demonetization, by removing 86 per cent of the currency in circulation, has
resulted in a very severe contraction in money supply in the economy. Rural sales have
been significantly come down in the last few weeks. Replacement of new Currency
notes within short period would help to escape from the major effect on the economy.
Agriculture, Automobiles and Construction sectors have badly affected. The
Government of India should take all steps to upgrade the Banking system as well as in
the Telecom infrastructure that would provide the backbone for digital transactions.
The attitude of the people should also be changed to carryon online money transaction
to the maximum extent. The usage of cash for payments should be minimized. The
public should also use Debit and Credit cards whenever payments are made. Mobile
Banking and Online Banking transactions would minimize the payment difficulties.
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
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large cash crunch has led to a slowdown and sales in this segment of the economy
in rural sales. are carried out through cash. With the
elimination of cash from the economy,
Impact on Investment and Employment: sale of kharif crop would be difficult
To keep the flows going, people might unless the crop is sold on the promise of
take recourse to credit - both the retailers payment in future. Given the limited
and other agents in the economy might bargaining power of the farmer, the price
make supplies on credit in the hope that they can realize for the crop can be
when the liquidity status is corrected, the adversely affected. On the other hand, in
payments can be realized. There would the sowing activity, people would not get
be a compression of the demand for non- access to the inputs required since most
essentials by all the agents in the of the inputs are now purchased from the
economy in the face of uncertainty in the market unless they seek access to credit
availability of cash. The demand from from the supplier. Further, if there are
segments which have access to digital agents who do not get access to credit
medium of exchange would remain from the informal sector agents, their
unaffected, but that from the rest of the sowing activity and hence their incomes
economy would get compressed. This in the next season would be adversely
would transmit the effect to the rest of affected. Thus, in spite of a good monsoon
the sectors in the economy as well. The in large parts of the country, the farmer
real estate sector would be badly affected. might not get the benefits.
Investment in construction sector would
be comedown and the employability Impact on Construction and Automobile
opportunities in the said sector would sectors: No doubt the Construction sector
also be minimized. would be adversely affected. This sector
works with a significant amount of cash.
Impact on Agriculture: Replacement of Payments to workers as well as a variety
new Currency notes within short period of purchases might be carried out in cash.
would help to escape from the major So, on the supply side, this sector can be
effect on the economy. This would depend adversely affected. On the other hand, on
on the speed with which and the extent to the demand side, the demand for houses
which the cash is replaced by the and buildings would appear as a demand
authorities. If the entire cash is replaced for non-essentials and might be pushed
within a short duration of time, the on to the back burner until the economic
effects beyond the very short term of two situation normalizes. The Automobile
months might be little. But a few sectors sector has also been facing discouraging
are likely to be seriously affected. It is situation as the sales of Motor Vehicles
known fact that in our Country the drastically come down. Public is afraid of
Agriculture sector has been providing purchasing vehicles out of their own
larger employment opportunities both funds. Previously certain share of the
directly and indirectly which also help to cost price of the vehicle is met out of
have strong economy. This is the sowing black money.
season for the Rabi crop in some parts of
the country and the harvesting season for Implementation of Online banking
the Kharif crop. Most of the purchases transactions: The Government of India
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International Journal of Academic Research
ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
should take all steps to upgrade the shock in the medium term is a function of
Banking system as well as in the Telecom how much of the currency will be
infrastructure that would provide the replaced at the end of the replacement
backbone for digital transactions. Online process and the extent to which currency
transactions are more transparent. in circulation is extinguished. While it
Financial Intelligence Unit will track all has been argued that the cash that would
Online transactions. For people to be able be extinguished would be “black money”
to transact at any time and place as well and hence, should be rightfully
as for them to consider it a reliable extinguished to set right the perverse
medium of exchange, it is important that incentive structure in the economy, this
not only the banking system is upgraded argument is based on impressions rather
to ensure that transactions can be than on facts. The middle class people
completed without a hitch, but the feel that the Government has taken up
supporting infrastructure too is upto the this demonetization so hurry without
mark. The attitude of the people should thinking the difficulties of the common
also change. People should carryon man. What the quantum of new currency
online money transaction to the ( Rs. 2000 notes) seized from the black
maximum extent. The usage of cash for money holders is very little. Large
payments should be minimized. So quantum of the same is still lying with
during this transitional period the Politicians, Bureaucrats, Smugglers,
individuals should change their mindset Corporate people, Anti-social activists etc.
infavour of digital transactions. Demonetization move will be good for the
Indian economy in the medium to longer
Steps to be taken by the Government to term. However, that this challenge is a
carryon online transactions: The temporary one. The situation should be
Government of India has developed some normalized from the last quarter of fiscal
apps to carry out disgital transactions. year 2017 onwards, as the liquidity
These apps are developed in English crunch eases.
language. Those who are not well versed
with English language can’t carry out References
digital transactions of their own. So the
government should develop the said apps http://www.indianjobs4u.com/online-
in regional languages also. The public transactions-limit-india
should also use Debit and Credit cards
whenever payments are made. Mobile http://www.livemint.com/Companies/iHcF
Banking and Online Banking kPVVuATAjxCD5zK4QJ/Digital-
transactions would minimize the payment-platforms-record-surge-in-
payment difficulties. The Government transactions-after.html
should offer certain concessions /
privileges to the people who are doing
online money transactions.
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
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analysts. Housing finance companies, too, a cash basis and, hence, these could
could witness pressure on their credit witness lower demand in the short term,
quality as well as growth, as fall in real believe analysts.
estate prices would impact the loan In the medium- to long-term,
against property (LAP) business. though, this move will provide an edge to
Even e-commerce players are organised players as unorganised players
likely to feel the heat in the near- to might not be able to bear the brunt of
medium-term. Cash on delivery forms cash-less business. Overall, most of these
anywhere between 70 and 90 per cent issues are likely to iron out in the
of e-commerce players’ revenues and, medium term and only aid performance
hence, can impact valuations of retail e- of India Inc.
commerce players, estimate analysts at “This (demonetisation move)
JM Financial. could affect the economic activity in the
near term but will be more than
On the flipside, banks stand to gain outweighed by positive impact on
meaningfully from implementation of improved transparency and tax
demonetisation, but over a period of time. compliance in the medium term,” says
While operating costs could increase in Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at
the immediate future, there would be an Morgan Stanley. “We believe this move
increase in the low-cost current and will help to reduce black money more
savings accounts (CASA), which in turn systematically, and in the long term,
will rub off favourably on the banks’ improve the ease of doing business in
funding costs and liquidity. Rising use of India.”
credit/debit cards, net banking and other While bringing inflation under
online payment mechanisms will be control, it will also give the Reserve Bank
another positive, as these would not only of India some more room for cutting
lower transaction costs but some of these rates. “The move can be marginally
could help earn some fee income as well. positive for fiscal (as some scramble to
Mining will be another sector to deposit cash into banks by declaring as
benefit from this move as the move to income and paying necessary taxes) and
ban Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes will hurt external accounts (by reducing the
illegal/unauthorised mining activities, demand for cash intensive imports such
aiding organised players such as Coal as gold),” says Pranjul Bhandari, chief
India, NMDC, among others, say experts. economist - India at HSBC.
While manufacturers of passenger cars Despite having many positives
and utility vehicles such as Maruti such as rising tax to GDP, higher GDP
Suzuki, Tata Motors, among others, will growth, lower inflation, higher financial
not be impacted meaningfully given that savings, this demonetisation move may
most of their products (80-90 per cent) not curb the root cause of black money.
are sold on a credit basis, the smaller “This initiative addresses the ‘stock’ of
segment of second-hand cars will be black money but not necessarily the
impacted given the cash component flow/fresh creation of black money unless
involved in such transactions. About half some mechanism is built to track the
the tractors and two-wheelers are sold on movement of the new high-value
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
currency notes,” wrote leading brokerage FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget
CLSA in a note to investors. However, Management) limitations, the amount of
such a sudden and drastic step by the borrowing that governments can take on
government might dissuade some – if not may be limited and the additional supply
all sections of the society – from creating can mean a decline in the interest rate
new black money reserves. that governments pay on their debt. This
Overall Impact on the sector could be a positive spin-off for the
In the past one year, there have governments. The collision of the shock
been a few positive and potentially long- in the medium term is a function of how
lasting changes in the Indian real estate. much of the money will be replace at the
The passing of RERA (Real Estate end of the replacement process and the
Regulation and Development Act 2016), extent to which currency in movement is
the Benami Transactions Act and now extinguish. While it has been argued that
the demonetization move will ensure that the cash that would be extinguished
going forward, the sector will lose much would be “black money”
of its historic taint and become more References:
transparent. Only players who conduct www.books.google.com
their business with integrity will survive. www.weekipedia.com
This bodes well for end-users, who will be http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/319621
aware of their rights, have the assurance http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/b4f9
of not being cheated and will no longer be0049585ff9a192b519583b6d16/SMEE.p
need to contend with constantly rising df?MOD=AJPE
prices. They will be able to buy properties
of their choice at affordable prices, in
projects which will assuredly be delivered
on time.
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
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Abstract: With cash transactions facing The removal of these 500 and 1000 notes
a reduction, alternative forms of payment and replacement of the same with new
will see a surge in demand. Digital 500 and 2000 Rupee Notes is expected to
transaction systems, E wallets and apps, - remove black money from the economy
online transactions using E banking, as they will be blocked since the owners
usage of Plastic money (Debit and Credit will not be in a position to deposit the
Cards), etc. will definitely see substantial same in the banks, - Temporarily stall the
increase in demand. This should circulation of large volume of counterfeit
eventually lead to strengthening of such currency and - curb the funding for anti-
systems and the infrastructure required social elements like smuggling, terrorism,
espionage, etc.
Key words: demonetization, against
corruption, smuggling, terrorism,
espionage, 2) Effect on Money Supply
With the older 500 and 1000 Rupees
notes being scrapped, until the new 500
and 2000 Rupees notes get widely
Introduction circulated in the market, money supply is
expected to reduce in the short run. To
the extent that black money (which is not
In an important move, the Government counterfeit) does not re-enter the system,
of India declared that the five hundred reserve money and hence money supply
and one thousand rupee notes will no will decrease permanently. However
longer be legal tender from midnight, 8th gradually as the new notes get circulated
November 2016. The RBI will issue Two in the market and the mismatch gets
thousand rupee notes and new notes of corrected, money supply will pick up.
Five hundred rupees which will be placed 3) Effect on Demand
in circulation from 10th November 2016. The overall demand is expected to be
Notes of one hundred, fifty, twenty, ten, affected to an extent. The demand in
five, two and one rupee will remain legal following areas is to be impacted
tender and will remain unaffected by this particularly:
decision. This measure has been taken by
the PM in an attempt to address the Consumer goods
resolve against corruption, black money Real Estate and Property
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
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Abstract: On November 8 the shock to the financial system was administered by Mr.
Modi by demonetizing 500 and 1000 rupee notes. India is an overwhelmingly paper
currency country: some 90% of the transactions are done with cash. India’s cash-to-
GDP ratio is 12% more than half of Indians still don’t have a bank account and some
300 million have no government identification. The two scrapped denominations – 500
and 1,000 rupees – account for more than 86% of the value of cash in circulation. By
this diktat the government effectively neutralized around 86 percent of the currency in
India. The staggering implication for the informal sector in the Indian economy which
employs close to 94% of the labour force was disastrous. The daily wage earners,
farmers, small traders and small businessmen were left helpless clutching the dud 500
and 1000 rupee notes in their hands. Even the economist Lawrence Summers, author
of the infamous World Bank Memo was driven to write… “Most free societies would
rather let several criminals go free than convict an innocent man. In the same way,
for the government to expropriate from even a few innocent victims who, for one
reason or another, do not manage to convert their money is highly problematic….”
Key words: financial system, denomination, demonetization
Introduction: living only in the digital world. Surely the
worthies in that institution have some
The RBI had its own Marie Antoinette idea of the conditions under which
moment a few days later in a press banking and money exchange occur for
release of November 12, 2016.It said most Indians? For some families for
“public are encouraged to switch over to whom getting a square meal was a luxury
alternative modes of payment, such as the mocking advice of the Modi
pre-paid cards, RuPay/Credit/Debit cards, government was if you don’t have food
mobile banking, internet banking. All eat plastic cards.
those for whom banking accounts under
Jan Dhan Yojana are opened and cards ATM machines became cashless and long
are issued are urged to put them to use. queues formed outside banks to exchange
Such usage will alleviate the pressure on the old notes for new ones. From this
the physical currency and also enhance inane compliance ritual of standing in
the experience of living in the digital endless queues outside banks, heart
world.” Economist Jayati Ghosh was wrenching stories emerged. A number of
aghast and wrote... “Statements like senior citizens died of exhaustion.
this make one wonder whether the RBI is Children and the elderly who were sick
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died as they were refused admission to one has to completely shut down the
hospitals as they could not pay with old banks.
notes. Farmers could not buy seeds for
the sowing season as they did not have Firstly, all black money is not held as
the new currency to pay for it. For the hoarded cash. At best it constitutes 6% of
first time in post independent India the the black money. Bulk of it is spirited
financial system went into a lockdown away in Tax free havens like Switzerland
mode. and Panama from there it is invested
through mail box corporations in equity,
Shock Therapy: The collective real estate and bullion all over the
punishment on India’s poor and the world. It is a matter of utmost irony
informal sector where millions eke out a that a number of the celebrities who
miserable livelihood was severe as close endorsed the demonetization scheme
to 50 percent of them do not have bank figure in the list of names of people who
accounts and formal identification papers used the illegal offshore accounts in
to open bank accounts. However this places like Panama.
draconian measure was justified by the
NDA government of Modi as a patriotic “In an elaborate charade called transfer
duty to eradicate the twin evils of black pricing, corporations with their army of
money and counterfeit currency used by accountants and lawyers create a maze of
terrorists. shell companies (i.e. companies which
have no real business activity) in Tax
Tall and ludicrous claims were made by Havens which have secrecy laws
the BJP ministers that terrorism was concealing the ownership and the source
dealt a death blow by the surgical strike of the funds. The tax strategy is fairly
of knocking out 86% of the Indian simple: book the profits in shell
currency. Critics of demonetisation were companies located in tax havens having
shouted down as unpatriotic with the low or nil rates of tax and show reduced
passionate fervor of McCarthyism. or better still zero earnings in countries
Donning the mantle of a messianic which have higher rates of tax.”
prophet PM Modi exhorted the poorest of
the poor to move towards a cashless Then there is another game called capital
society. round tripping played by big corporate
businesses which bring back their black
Challenges: Cutting beneath the money through bogus companies which
masochistic hysteria of pain and national have no real business. These funds are
sacrifice whipped up by the propaganda invested in the economy as Foreign
machine of corporate media and the Modi Direct Investment. There have been no
government, one discerns fundamental efforts by the Government to clamp down
flaws in the argument that on these activities. At the Mahesh Buch
demonetization eradicates black money Memorial Lecture at Bhopal on October
and counterfeit currency. It is as absurd 5, 2016 former Reserve Bank of India
as arguing that to prevent bank robberies governor Y.V. Reddy said “there is a
subsisting interest in influential policy
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The Indian stock market is also rigged There is no gainsaying that by rendering
through the route called the 86% of the currency as paper trash and
Participatory note where the black carpet bombing the informal sector
money from Indian origin is parked in dependant on cash, the demonetizing of
Mauritius in a shell company from which currency can best be described as a
there is flow back of black money as quixotic venture. Or is it a dress
investment in the stock market causing rehearsal for something more ominous in
inflated share prices. It is no secret that the form of draconian capital controls
demonetization is a wrong policy preventing physical withdrawal of cash
instrument to handle such sophisticated from banks? Is the lack of availability of
chicaneries. It is like slicing a loaf of currency on account of “poor planning”
bread with a hammer. or a manufactured crisis for the
Government to push its agenda for a war
Secondly, the engines of black money are on cash?
left intact especially election campaign
contributions are often accepted in cash Before we discuss this issue we have to
and unaccounted for. The BJP which is take a snapshot of the Indian economy.
now on a moral crusade of eradicating Beneath the rosy headlines of robust
black money has been guilty of accepting GDP growth rates the fact remains that
large sums of unaccounted money as the growth is fueled by expansion of
campaign contributions. Moreover, bribes credit and not incomes from steady job
of government officials and the political growth which in a state of decline. The
class would continue unabated even after top corporate elites have borrowed
demonetization. There are already heavily from public sector banks without
reports that government officials are any hope of paying off the debt. The
taking bribes in freshly printed notes! It public sector banks are groaning under
was reported in the state of Gujarat the weight of corporate loans which may
where Mr. Modi hails from government never be paid. The real estate sector of
officials demanded bribes in freshly the economy is primed up with bank
printed 2000 rupee notes. loans and credit expansion. The stimulus
to the economy is through easy access to
And lastly, counterfeit notes circulating credit for consumer spending. Thus an
in the economy is estimated to be in the illusion of prosperity is maintained on a
region of 400 crores out of a total of mountain of credit.
sixteen lakh crores. In percentage terms
it amounts a mere 0.03% of the entire Crucial Issues:
currency. A sensible policy practiced by
most governments is to gradually phase The crisis point in the Indian economy
out certain notes with certain serial has reached as credit induced asset
numbers to lessen the dangers of bubbles are in imminent danger of
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The demonetization of the currency has ” The reality is a whole lot darker. The
also a shock and awe element to it: the war on cash is being waged for the
shock of losing real money and the awe of exclusive benefit of those who already
being herded in digital pen. Cash carries wield an inordinate amount of power and
a bad odour. Are you using cash because control over the economy and the people
you are engaged in drug trafficking or are that are struggling in it. And they want
you a terrorist wanting to buy arms and more. By slowly, quietly killing cash, they
explosives? Should you be flagged for seek to seize the last remaining thing
suspicious activities for questioning by that offers people a small semblance of
the national security state? privacy, anonymity, and personal
freedom in their increasingly controlled
Conclusion: A part from the searing and surveyed lives. And the way things
stigma that cash is associated with are going, they’ll get it…”
criminality, there is immense pressure on
the denizens of the informal sector to Imprisoned within the narrow confines of
tread the virtuous path to digital- “you this digital panoptic on from which there
pay- we play” pens like Paytm. Also is no exit, we will lose our freedom over
comfortingly called digital wallets they our money. We will no longer have the
offer bleating sheep solace and comfort choice of withdrawing cash from banks
from the ordeal of cash transactions. plagued with bad debts or withdrawing
Once secure in the pay pen the sheep can from irrational credit orgies as the risk of
be burdened with transaction costs which losing our money is too high.
swells the profits of the digital banks and
also the ubiquitous service tax can be Facing the signs of no cash and no exit
imposed by the government which swells we shall be agitated at the first signs of
the coffers of a state hostile to social Financial Meltdown but we shall be
spending. To sum up: pacified by the handlers of the pen. We
1. Every financial transaction can be will be reminded of our patriotic duty to
taxed the state to pay taxes. Ultimately calm
2. Every financial transaction can be will return.
charged a fee
3. Bank runs are eliminated
In this digital pen we shall serve with After all the handlers imbued with the
docility and endure “the stifling hygiene wisdom of Jean Baptiste Colbert the
of the digital panoptic on being French finance minister to King Louis
constructed to serve the needs of profit- XIV know, “The art of taxation consists
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Demonetization in India
V. Vijay Kumar
Lecturer in Commerce
SIR C R Reddy Autonomous College , Eluru
Abstract: Demonetization is the act of stripping a currency unit of its status as legal
tender. Demonetization is necessary whenever there is a change of national currency.
With the older 500 and 1000 Rupees notes being scrapped, until the new 500 and 2000
Rupees notes get widely circulated in the market, money supply is expected to reduce
in the short run. To the extent that black money (which is not counterfeit) does not re-
enter the system, reserve money and hence money supply will decrease permanently.
However gradually as the new notes get circulated in the market and the mismatch
gets corrected, money supply will pick up.
Key words: demonetization, new currency unit, money supply
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can’t tax and which forms an island away Money In Circulation So This Will Take
from the main economy. Most Of The Money Out Hence Will
Impact Badly The Terrorist
Organization.
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The nature, frequency and amounts of government to track people who are
the commercial transactions involved having large sums of unaccounted cash or
with these sections of the economy cash on which no income tax has been
necessitate cash transactions on more paid because many people who earn black
frequent basis. Thus, these segments are money keep that money as cash in their
expected to have the most significant houses or in some secret place which is
impact post this demonetization process very difficult to find and when
and the introduction of new notes in demonetization happens all that cash is
circulation. of no value and such people have two
options one is to deposit the money in
Effect on GDP bank accounts and pay taxes on such
amount and second option is to let the
The GDP formation could be impacted by value of that cash reduced to zero.
this measure, with reduction in the
consumption demand. However with the People disclosing their income by
recent rise in festival demand is expected depositing money in their bank accounts
to offset this fall in overall impact. government gets a good amount of tax
Moreover, this expected impact on GDP revenue which can be used by the
may not be significant as some of this government towards the betterment of
demand will only be deferred and re- society by providing good infrastructure,
enter the stream once the cash situation hospitals, educational institutions, roads
becomes normal. and many facilities for poor and needy
sections of society.
Effect on Banks
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of technology for India. The recently ongoing currency swap. Third, there is a
launched Unified Payments Interface by general preference for cash transactions
National Payments Corporation of India in India. Merchants prefer not to keep
makes digital transactions as simple as records in order to avoid paying taxes and
sending a text message. buyers find cash payments more
convenient. Although cashless
So, will the exercise to exchange transactions have gone up in recent
currency notes and the ongoing currency times, a meaningful transition will
crunch be a decisive factor in making depend on a number of things such as
India a truly cashless economy? Nandan awareness, technological developments
Nilekani, in an interview to this and government intervention. For
newspaper, termed this as “a defining instance, mobile wallets have seen
point in India moving to cashless”. notable traction, and it is possible that a
Shortage of cash has significantly large number of Indians will move
increased the use of digital modes of straight from cash to mobile wallets. A
payment, but the actual shift will only be study by Boston Consulting Group and
visible after the cash crunch eases. It is Google in July noted that wallet users
possible that a section of people which have already surpassed the number of
has used electronic mode of payment for mobile banking users and are three times
the first time due to the cash crunch will the number of credit card users.
continue to transact through this
medium, but there are still a number of However, as noted above, a
hurdles in making India a cashless material transition to a cashless economy
economy. will depend on a number of factors. First,
the availability and quality of telecom
First, a large part of the network will play an important role.
population is still outside the banking net Presently, people face difficulties in
and not in a position to reduce its making electronic payments even in
dependence on cash. According to a 2015 metro cities because of poor network.
report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, Second, as one of the biggest beneficiaries
India’s unbanked population was at 233 of this transition, banks and related
million. Even for people with access to service providers will have to constantly
banking, the ability to use their debit or invest in technology in order to improve
credit card is limited because there are security and ease of transaction. People
only about 1.46 million points of sale will only shift when it’s easier, certain
which accept payments through cards. and safe to make cashless transactions.
Third, the government will also need to
Second, about 90% of the play its part. It will have to find ways to
workforce, which produces nearly half of incentivize cashless transactions and
the output in the country, works in the discourage cash payments.
unorganized sector. It will not be easy for Implementation of the goods and services
the informal sector to become cashless, tax, for example, should encourage
and this part of the economy is likely to businesses to go cashless. Government
be affected the most because of the should also use this opportunity to
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Conclusions:
References:
www.google.com
www.hinduarticles.com
www.weekipieda.com
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Abtract: The day when currency compression is completed and `50 is the highest
denomination in force, all currency money can be assumed to have come back into the
system,” Thereafter, all bank transactions would yield ‘bank transaction tax’ and the
government would receive revenue in continuously. The effects of these steps would
need to be carefully monitored and fine-tuning action would have to be taken as and
where required, Bokil warns. Tools of monetary governance would have to be
judiciously used to ensure inflation is kept under control.
Key words: inspiration, achievement, currency compression
Introduction and presented their project report to the
local cooperative bank.
The son of retired teachers from Latur “It gave credit in the Rs. 50,000
city in Marathawada region, infamous for to Rs. 2 lakh range,” Bokil says. Within
hundreds of distressed farmers’ suicides, two years, state-owned Bank of
Bokil comes across as a fully possessed Maharashtra and Bank of Hyderabad also
man on his mission. He lives on Rs. 3,500 lent funds, from which Bokil purchased a
he gets from his 80-year-old retired 2-acre plot from Maharashtra Industrial
teacher-mother, who lives with her Development Corporation in Aurangabad
husband in Latur. He is a sanyasi of and set up an industrial cluster model. In
sorts, as he has renounced the world, five years, it became so successful that
shut his bank account, lives on the Bangladeshi Muhammad Yunus, a social
goodwill of people and has devoted his life entrepreneur and banker — and recipient
for a new economic order in the country, of the Nobel Peace Prize for founding the
with a band of about 25 dedicated, like- Grameen Bank and pioneering micro-
minded people he won over during the credit and micro-finance — wanted to
last 16 years. He says he is rich with the replicate it in his country. “A young
goodwill of the people towards his entrepreneur, who set up a foundry unit
mission. He owns nothing. there today owns a BMW, not a small
achievement,” Bokil points out.
His inspiration and achievement:
Looking for solutions through Artha
The turning point in Bokil’s life
Kranti :
came in 1995 when a group of 86
carpenters, welders, blacksmiths, Since 1995, Bokil met many
electricians, etc. who wanted to venture economists and chartered accountants to
into business, were refused credit by a understand why everyone doesn’t have
bank in Aurangabad, Maharashtra. Bokil, access to banks, why they cannot get
who at that time was manufacturing loans or why capital is so expensive. After
import-substitutes for the processing and a deep study with a few like-minded
manufacturing industry, learnt of their people from Aurangabad and Pune, he
plight, studied their case, and prepared
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Conclusion:
References:
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Abstract: There are many reasons behind it but the basic reason is the “Use of black
money” to a large extent in our country. In Ancient times, the ways to generate money
as well as its usage was very transparent i.e. everyone knew the sources of money and
its application, which may be referred as white money. So, in the past, White Money
was in use but now the colour of Indian money has changed to Black. Before
discussing the use of Black Money one must know what Black Money is.
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India. According to him, the main reason country up to a large extent it is not
behind the generation of Black Money is possible for us to define it in a very clear
the Indian Political System i.e Indian terms .Different people defines it in
govt. just focused on making committees different ways with different terms such
rather than to implement it.So,he as unaccounted income, black income,
concluded that laws should be black wealth, underground wealth, or at
implemented properly to control Black economylevel it is known as black
Money in our economy. economy, parallel economy, shadow
economy, and unofficial economy.
CA Lalit Mohan Agarwal (2012) Therefore, all in all these terms usually
edited the White Paper on Black Money refer to an income on which the taxes are
studied that violation of laws by central imposed by government but have not
and state govt.leads to criminal activities been paid.
which in turn leads to generation of
Black Money in Indian economy. Black Money refers to that money
which is not fully legitimate property of
Arpit Guru and the owner. It is normally received in
ShrutiKahanijow(2010) researched on Is terms of cash from economic
Black Money an income? Need for activities.i.e.Individuals who received it
amendment in DTAA&ITEAanalysed must hide it, spend it on for the
that Black Money is spread everywhere in fulfillment of their needs.
India up to a large extent which
continuously stashed towards abroad in a National Institute of Public
very large amount. They also studied how Finance and Policy (NIPFP) defines-
Black Money had caused menaces in our “Black Money is the aggregate of incomes
economy and in what ways it is used. which are taxable but not reported to
authorities.” Apart from this, the term
Vijay Kumar Singh presented a Black Money would also include legal
paper on controlling money laundering in income that is concealed or hide from
India-problems & perspectives.To control public authorities:
Black Money in India is a very difficult
task mainly due to the poor To evade payment of taxes which
implementation of laws which lead to includes - income tax, excise duty, sales
sophisticated crime in the economy and tax, stamp duty, etc ;
thus generates black money.
To evade payment of other
What is Black Money? governmental or statutory contributions;
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Hiding income through Legal activities 1. If any common man wants to get a job
i.e. not reported to public authorities or in any public institution like a bank, or
we say to the govt.for the purpose to any transport or educational institution
evade taxes. etc., then he will have to pay adequate
consideration to the authority of that
Even commercial classes generate
respective institution i.e. bribeshave to
Black Money through Trade.
be paid. For this, common man is forced
Black Money in India to generate money by illegal means. In
this way, we can say that, both, the
Almost every sector in public authority and a common man
our country generates and uses Black generate and use Black Money in a
Money for its survival in the market, considerable manner.
society....etc. It includes Real estate,
financial market, bullion &jewellery 2. Likewise, if a student wants to get
market, non-profit organisations, admission in any big and reputed
external trade and so on. institution, he will have to pay some
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There are some challenges which So, government must take quick
might be faced by the government as action in setting SITs, then potential
explained below:- Black Money holder will definitely
reduce. It is big challenge in front of
To control criminal activities government to properly implement the
special SIT which helps to bring back
As we know, in country like India
stashed Black Money in the country.
there are many illegal activities and
crimes that lead to generation of Less formation of Committees:
significant amount of Black Money
incomes. It includes counter fiet We think this is one of the
currency, drug trafficking etc. Each of biggest challenges which are going to be
them is a major source of unaccounted or faced byIndian govt. to form fewer
black money. committees. i.e. Ministers in Indian
Political System are just focussing on
Repatriation of Black Money stashed setting up new committees evenfor a
abroad:- very small issue in order to rot the issues
i.e. our politicians only know how to
We think it is the one of the
delay the process of action and
biggest challenge of our government of
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technology be made as far as possible like order to address the issue of Black Money
E-Registration with Revenue Authorities, and corruption in public life.
E-Filing of Returns, etc. because more
the involvement of human beings, moreis There is no doubt that existence
involvement of corruption, ultimately of Black Money has a significant impact
generating Black Money. on social, economic and political levels of
our lives which has a significant effect
Black Money revolves around in cash on the institutions of governance and
only so the Government should put conduct of public policy in the country.
restriction on cash transactions wherever
possible and instead should increase the References:
use of Plastic Money like Debit Cards, Currentaffairs.appsc.blogspot.in/2012/05
Credit Cards, etc. and by other such white_paper_on_black_money_a_few_sug
means. gestions_should_be_dropp/
Conclusion www.moneylife.in/article/white_paper_on
_black_money_hide_and_i_cant_see_gam
This paper presents the different e/25883.html
aspects of Black Money and its www.studymode.com/subjects/corruption
relationship with policy and s_and_black_money_page3.html
administrative measures in our country.
It also reflects the policy and strategies
that the Government has been pursuing www.articlesnatch.com
in the context of recent initiatives, or www.google.com
need to take up in the near future, in www.msn.com
www.wikipedia.com
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www.wisegeek.com bharatkalyan97.blogspot.in/2012/05/junk
_paper_on_rs_24_lakh_crore_black.html.
Gupta, S.B. (1982), Monetary
Economics-Institutions, Theory & Policy, www.swamyassociates.in/swamyuserfiles/
S.Chand and Company, New Delhi. file/may%202012/editorial_blackmoney.p
Ahuja, R. (2007). “Social Problems in
df
India” (2nd Ed). Jaipur: Rawat
n.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_black_money
Publications.
Nafees.A.Khan, P.T.Chaudhary, "Black
http://www.bjp.org/images/pdf/feb_08_bjp
Money: Its Impact on the Indian
_task_force_report_ii.pdf.Indian.bla
Economy," Tax Reforms in India (Ed.),
Srinawas Publications, Jaipur,pp. 150- ckmoney Abroad a 2008 report by BJP
155,2003.
businesstoday.intoday.in/story/white_pap
er_on_black_money_features/1/185177.ht
ml_24_jan_2012.
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Abstract: Corruption and black money are the major obstacles in our country. It is
weakening the efforts to remove poverty. Our country is rapidly increasing in terms of
growth and we are in No.1 position in terms of growth but we are ranked 76 in Global
Corruption Perception ranking. It clearly shows how corruption and black money have
spread their tentacles. By replacing all the Rs.500 and Rs.1000 denomination notes, as
ordered by the government, could cost the RBI at least Rs.12000 crore. It will be very
difficult for half of the population who are not well versed with the card transactions.
The major problem is that big fishes will be left out whose black money is in the form
of foreign currency, gold and property and stashed in tax havens.
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but the commodities and things available Financial Intelligence Unit will track all
in the market have not gone down. It will details of the transactions from the
lead to inflation slowly but not banks. So now it is really difficult to get
overnight. rid of the black money.
Cash Deposits in Banks: A lot of cash Real estate industry is totally corrupted
which are legally earned will be deposited and now by this stringent decision the
in the banks and now the banks with real estate sector will bring in more
more deposits will be able to do more transparency. By doing it in this way we
lending. will have more credibility, making it
more attractive to the foreign investors
Easy Loans: Loans will become easier and as well as domestic investors.
interest rates may come down. As banks
will have more money so more loans will Disadvantages:
be given out which will increase the
money supply in the market and it will It will cause great inconvenience to
create inflation. common man who will start running to
bank to exchange Rs.500 and Rs.1000
Advantages: notes.
The major decision which is made by the By replacing all the Rs.500 and Rs.1000
government will help us to eradicate denomination notes, as ordered by the
black money, corruption to some extent. government, could cost the RBI at least
Rs.12000 crore.
Due to lack of funding there will be no
arms smuggling and all the terrorist It will be very difficult for half of the
activities will also be choked. population who are not well versed with
the card transactions.
The government has proposed the new
limits on ATM withdrawals being The major problem is that big fishes will
restricted to Rs.2000 per day, withdrawal be left out whose black money is in the
from bank account is Rs.10000 a day and form of foreign currency, gold and
Rs.20000 a week. It indicates that card property and stashed in tax havens.
transactions will slowly replace the cash
transactions in our daily prone activities. Conclusions
Exchange of money in banks can only be The advantages are much dominating
done producing valid identity cards like and it will be in the long term interest of
PAN, aadhar card and electoral card from our country comfortably outweighing the
10 to 24 November with a daily limit of disadvantages. Government need to take
Rs.4000. By doing so it will be easy for all the necessary steps so as to ensure
the government to track the money that there will be a smooth flow of
which is being exchanged in banks. There currency exchanges. It would turn into
is no limit if the amount which we are chaos if government takes no necessary
exchanging is legal amount. steps to circulate money correctly. It will
make a massive change in our economy.
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References
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Abstract: India’s previous experience with demonetisation was when the then
President of India promulgated the High Denomination Bank Notes (Demonetisation)
Ordinance on 16 January 1978, demonetizing the ₹1,000, ₹5,000 and ₹10,000 currency
notes with the objective of eliminating “the possible use of such notes for financing
illegal transactions” (RBI 1977–78: 77). At that time, demonetisation received limited
public attention and had little impact on the daily lives of people. High denomination
notes demonetised then formed just a minuscule fraction—about 0.6%—of the total
currency in circulation. Further, the demonetised notes were of significantly high
value, having little use for common people. The current situation is different; the
demonetised ₹500 and ₹1,000 notes constitute over 85% of total notes in circulation by
value.
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V.Vijaya Kumar,
Research Scholar, P.G.Dept. of Commerce, P.G.Courses & Research Centre, D.N.R.
College (Autonomous), Bhimavaram-534 202
Abstract: The proposal by the government involves the elimination of 500 and 1000
these existing notes from circulation and a gradual replacement with a new set of
notes. In the short term, it is intended that the cash in circulation would be
substantially squeezed since there are limits placed on the amount that individuals can
withdraw. In the months to come, this squeeze may be relaxed somewhat. The reasons
offered for demonetisation are two-fold: one, to control counterfeit notes that could be
contributing to terrorism, in other words a national security concern and second, to
undermine or eliminate the “black economy”. There are potentially two ways in which
the pre-demonetisation money supply will stand altered in the new regime: one, there
would be agents in the economy who are holding cash which they cannot explain and
hence they cannot deposit in the banking system. This part of the currency will be
extinguished since it would not be replaced in any manner. Second, the government
might choose to replace only a part of the currency which was in circulation as cash. In
the other words, the rest would be available only as electronic money. This could be a
mechanism used to force a transition to cashless medium of exchange.
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and got back with the money in the The future of e-commerce is
wallet intact. If you ask, most people, bright despite cash burn and losses
even small shops accept cards in Kerala, incurred by e-commerce players amidst a
and banks are giving Rs. 4,000 in drying up funding environment, as India
exchange for these notes,” he said. is still an under penetrated market, said
Meanwhile, bankers think some Sachin Bansal, Flipkart Co-founder and
customers seem to be making good use of Executive Chairman, who was the first
loopholes by walking into different banks speaker at the third edition of the Global
with the photocopy of his/her identity Mobile Internet Conference that opened
card, and walking out with enough in the city. Stating that e-commerce
change. companies will have to continue to invest
in talent, physical supply chain and
Impact On Growth And Inflation logistics and in building systems and
processes to support the inevitable
One question that crops up is the impact growth of ecommerce in the country
on growth rate. Certainly, the temporary before focusing on becoming profitable,
disruptions can have an adverse effect on he foresees that “Only those companies
growth if they continue to linger. Over that bet and invest in data and AI will
the longer run, the beneficial effects are survive in the next 10 years. Cash burn
the spread of the organised financial and cash crunch is a function of the stage
system with more and more transactions of the market. The question we should be
being channelled through the digital asking is when is the right time to stop
mode. Also, if followed up by other burning cash and switch to profitability,
measures, the generation of black money which can be done anytime we want
can come down. The immediate impact to.”Asked whether he was afraid of the
on prices will also be beneficial. To the prospect of either being bought out or
extent that some part of the currency will destroyed by American and Chinese firms
get extinguished, it may have the same like Amazon or Alibaba, Bansal said
effect on inflation as reduction in money “absolutely not.” Explaining that India is
in circulation. This will happen only at a very different market, he predicted that
the end of the period given for surrender business models that are unable to get
of old currency. Even as people welcome the masses of India on board and are just
the measure to demonetise, the major serving the elite who look much like
concern is the inconvenience because of Americans and European in their income
the lack of adequate new currency. It also levels and behaviour, will be bought out
affects the livelihood of the poor. Small or will have to shut down, as already seen
businesses, particularly, can face over the last 12 months. Businesses that
shortage of liquidity which can hurt them are able to Indianise for Indian needs and
seriously. The Government, the RBI and aspirations and are able to solve local
banks must handle this problem on a problems using local resources in a much
war-footing; otherwise the generally more efficient way will survive.“If you
welcome measure may turn sour. want to beat NASA, don’t replicate the
NASA model, but be like ISRO which did
The Demonetisation and its impact on e-
the same things at much lower costs. My
commerce Industry
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Abstract: The withdrawal of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 notes is one of the boldest step taken by
government of India in recent times. PM Modi took this decision, fully aware that the
move can be detrimental for his political career and at first it occurred that the
decision was taken in a moment This scheme is going to impact the businesses, the
daily labour, and financial institutions all at some level or the other. The government
is repeatedly assuring the citizens not to worry and that “Your money will be yours.
You will not lose anything so there is no point in being scared. There will be no
restrictions on non-cash payments by cheques, demand drafts, and electronic fund
transfer.”
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that how did they earn that income? completely cashless transactions. In the
Their files would be subjected to scrutiny short term, people in rural India who
and a minimum tax of 60 percent (30 have a significant amount of Rs 500 and
percent general tax rate with 100 percent Rs 1000 notes, but no official form of
penalty) would be payable on the identification, will have a tough time in
declared amount if it is found to be exchanging their notes.
undisclosed previous income. Even if Agriculture - Transactions in the
they show this as income in the normal Indian agriculture sector are heavily
course of business, they will have to pay dependent on cash and is hugely affected
taxes on it as per current rate. by the demonetisation of Rs.500 and
Fake note circuits - Militants Rs.1000 banknotes. Many farmers have
operating against India use fake notes of insufficient cash to purchase seeds,
Rs 500 and Rs 1000 (total worth about fertilizers and pesticides needed for the
$7.50 at current exchange rates, source : plantation of rabi crops.
Media Report). But have you ever The unorganized sector - The
thought about how these militants and poor do not have black money. They
terrorists get their money? Enemies from work hard to earn two squares of meal
across the border run their operations and do not have sufficient savings so as
using fake currency notes. Hence, the to deposit in any bank. They are the
withdrawal of these currency notes is people who are most affected by this
equivalent to carrying out a surgical sudden decision. How do you expect
strike on these people. people running grocery shops, street
Illegal election fundings - We all venders, and maids to leave their
know how much black money is used by businesses and stand in a queue to
political parties. It will be a very tough deposit these notes in the bank?
task to use trucks of money at least for Transportation - Major highway
the upcoming five state elections. toll junctions on the Gujarat and Delhi-
Rural economy - A very strong Mumbai highways also saw long queues
criticism of the scheme that came across as toll plaza operators refused the old
is the possible draconian impact it can banknotes. Nitin Gadkari, the Minister
have on the rural economy. India of Transport, subsequently announced a
reportedly has somewhere around 10 suspension of toll collections on all
lakh bank branches all over India. national highways across India until
However, there are 6.8 lakh villages midnight of 11 November, later extended
alone and most of these villages are until 14 November and again until
without a bank. Rural economy mostly midnight of 18 November, and yet again
thrives on currency transactions. Most of till 2 December.
the population does not even have the No big impact on foreign
slightest idea of banking. This is likely to accounts - The big fish will be left out
come across as a huge shocker for such whose black money is in the form of
sections. Jan Dhan scheme, UPI/digital foreign currency, gold, and stashed away
payment stack, and payment banks are in Swiss/Panama Banks, offshore
still in the nascent stage. It will be a long accounts, gold, and property, etc. How
time before rural India moves to
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References
http://www.thehindu.com/business/econo
my/rbi-urges-public-to-a dopt-digital-as-
atms- 3
3.http://www.thehindu.com/news/nationa
l/demonetisation-arun-jaitley-on-atms-
going-dry/article9338238.ecerun-
dry/srticle9339020.ece
4. Demonetization
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/de
monetization.asp#ixzz4QRacCuLL
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References:
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growth. The GDP formation could be wage employment in the informal sector.
impacted by this measure, with a The construction sector has one of the
reduction in the consumption demand. highest employment multipliers. The key
However, with the recent rise in festivals, segments of the economy where cash
demand is expected to offset this fall in transactions play a vital role are real
an overall impact. Moreover, this estate, gold and the informal sectors,
expected impact on GDP may not be which may face near term contraction.
significant as some of this demand With more money coming into the
will only be deferred and will re-enter the banking ambit, deposit growth is likely to
stream once the cash situation becomes improve and positively impact the savings
normal. rate. The medium- to long-term gains are
likely to outweigh the short-term pains
Lower Money Supply has a
Deflationary Effect: Effect on Online Transactions and
alternative modes of payment:
With the older 500 and 1000 Rupees
notes being scrapped, until the new 500 With cash transactions facing a
and 2000 Rupees notes get widely reduction, alternative forms of payment
circulated in the market, money supply is will see a surge in demand. Digital
expected to be reduced in the short run. transaction systems, E wallets and apps,
Reduction in money supply can also have online transactions using E banking,
a deflationary effect in the economy. usage of Plastic money (Debit and Credit
However, whether the impact of the Cards), etc. will definitely see substantial
reduced money supply will lead to increases in demand. This should
deflation or contraction in demand or a eventually lead to strengthening of such
mix of both will vary from sector to sector systems and the infrastructures required.
depending on the nature of goods &
services. To the extent that black money Bank Deposit Rates to Soften:
(which is not counterfeit) does not re-
enter the system, reserve money, and We can expect a large amount of cash in
eventually, money supply will decrease circulation to be brought within the
permanently. However, gradually as the purview of the formal banking system by
new notes get circulated in the market way of deposits. This is structurally
and the mismatch gets corrected, money positive for banks, as part of this cash
supply will pick up speed. gets deposited as current account and
savings account (CASA) deposits,
Credit Impact across Sectors: reducing banks dependence on higher
cost borrowing. Deposit deployment
Impact of this policy measure will flow to remains a challenge in the short to
the economy mainly through the Real medium term due to the current tepid
Estate sector, which has strong linkages demand for credit, subsequently pushing
with sectors such as cement and steel and deposit rates lower. Across the medium
which will turn credit negative in the term, the demand for real estate,
short-run. A significant impact in the especially in the secondary market where
short-run will be on the daily/weekly the cash component, as a proportion of
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Private Educational Institutions: Since This is bad for the following reasons:
Private Educational Institutions take
huge amounts of donations in Cash which More deposits than the available money
is 40 % to 50%, we expect that this move in the system before demonetisation
will impact the Private Education increases government liability and
Institutions receipts. weakens its financial architecture.
With cash transactions lowering in the Bad economics may well prove to be bad
short run, until the new notes are politics for Modi and the BJP as millions
naturalized widely into circulation, of Indians line up in long queues outside
certain sections of the society could face banks and ATMs across the country to
short term disruptions in facilitation of withdraw their own money and who have
their transactions. These sections are: not been getting even the rationed cash
after waiting in the queues for hours.
Agriculture and related sectors
Small traders It is a long haul and there is no magic
SME wand to shoo away the cash crisis.
Services Sectors Consider these facts:
Households
The RBI could print currency notes in its
Professionals like doctors,
four presses to the tune of Rs 2,700
carpenters, utility service providers, etc.
CRORES daily. This has now been
Retail outlets
increased to Rs 4,000 CRORE daily, but
the daily requirement is Rs 13,000
CRORE.
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It takes 9 days for the making of a Pay tm , Ola Money etc.: This
currency note. One currency note costs behavioural change could be a game
the exchequer Rs 37, irrespective of its changer for India.
face value.
Temporary chaos and confusion
The printing presses can't run non-stop
for 24 hours and need to switched off for Public will face minor problem for a few
three hours in a day. Deposits will create days owing to the scarcity of lower
more demand for government bonds and denomination notes in the system.
other high rated bonds in a situation of
tepid demands for credit, leading to lower As most of the unaccounted wealth is
bond yields especially in the shorter end particularly widespread in real estate
of the curve. At the same time, a sector, the central government’s latest
reduction in leakages in systemic decision on note ban is expected to cause
liquidity will reduce the scope for open problems for developers. As there will be
market operation purchases in the the liquidity stress on them, they may
coming days. We believe that the RBI will slow down the construction works and it
continue to sterilize excess liquidity from would eventually increase the number of
the banking system to keep the short residential projects getting delayed on its
term rates aligned with the policy rate. completion.
This essentially represents a change in Conclusion
regime for the real and financial
economy. Domestically, there could be Since most of the Rural Economy is based
some turmoil as the effect will be on Cash, it’s going to impact the Rural
disproportionately felt by the lower and Economy Sectors with a sizeable
upper income classes. Internationally, the magnitude of Cash transactions such as
government is likely to get a thumbs up Real Estate, Construction, Jewellery,
for the move and more countries could high-end retail, White Goods and travel &
potentially see this as a viable option to tourism are expected to adversely affect.
curb black money and stem illegal It will push the economy because of flow
financial activity of more money into the banking system.
In the long term, the economy will
The demonetization decision is expected benefit from the reduction of the black
to have far reaching effects on real estate. money, which will lead to higher tax
Resale transactions in the real estate collection, better business environment,
sector often have a significant cash less corruption & transparency. It will
component as it reduces incidence of improve the situation of Fiscal Deficit of
capital gains tax. Black money was the Country and hence reduce the fiscal
responsible for sharp appreciation of deficit. Interest rates will decline further
properties in metros; real estate prices because of decrease on Inflation as banks
may now see a sharp drop. are flushed with huge inflows. It
creates a situation where lack of
Demonetization will likely result in currencies jams consumption,
people adopting virtual wallets such as investment, production, employment etc.
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References
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/
demonetisation-arun-jaitley-on-atms-
going-dry/article9338238.ecerun-
dry/srticle9339020.ece
Demonetization
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/de
monetization.asp#ixzz4QRacCuLL
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Abstract
Money play a significant role in the smooth development of the economic system of a
nation especially if is a developing country like India. Money as a medium of exchange
and store of value is an inseparable part of the socio-economic system of those
countries where more people are illiterate s and majority are just above poverty line or
below poverty line and are over populated . Small trade in unorganised sector takes
major share of retail trade in such economies. For such economies money as medium of
exchange play crucial role. Such economies are responsible for the mounting black
money also. Thus demonetisation is good to some extent to eradicate the problem of
black money and corruption but sudden and unplanned demonetisation is dangerous.
Key words: Monetary Policy, Medium of exchange, Store of value, Legal tender,
Currency Regulations
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the Central Bank and also the Monetary policy is executed by the
Government. central bank of the country, the
To know the impact of monetary authority of the country. The
monetisation and demonetisation objective of the policy is to influence the
To Identify some practical level of income of the economy.
solutions to handle the situation.
Thus regulation of money in circulation
What is money? is a technique to balance the economic
system according to the changing needs.
Money is primarily the medium of Monetary regulation includes changing
exchange. There is no precise definition rates of interest in money market
of the term money but it is defined on the through techniques such as bank rate
basis of its functions. policy, open market operations or
selective methods of central banks or
According to Robertson, “Anything which expansion and contraction of currency in
is widely accepted in payment for goods circulation.
or discharge of other kinds of business
obligations.” All the nations generally adopt the credit
control techniques of the central bank to
According to Halm, “The word money has regulate the money in circulation.
been used to designate the medium of Withdrawing or cancelation or abolition
exchange as well as standard of value.” of money is a rare decision of both the
central bank and the Government.
Currency is one of the forms of money
Because this decision disturbs the
which includes coins also. This is called economy.
legal tender. The most important
function of money is medium of exchange Need for demonetisation
and store of value. As a medium of
exchange money became the most wanted Demonetisation is something like
thing in the world and as a store of value withdrawing currency from circulation by
this is desired by all. different means. The government under
the guidance and advice of the central
Monetary policy bank of the country decides to
demonetise. Important reasons may be
Monetary policy is the Government policy
with regard to issue of currency and its To bring equilibrium between
regulation through the central bank. demand for and supply of money in the
circulation.
According to Prof. Kent, monetary policy
To reduce the increasing
refers to “the management of the
inflationary conditions
expansion and contraction of the volume
To check black money
of money in circulation for the explicit
To control illegal holding of
purpose of attaining a specific objective
such as full employment”. currency
To control illegal, anti social and
anti national activities
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Black money holders are able to makers need to balance the pains and
convert some percentage of currency gains of general public and decide the
through various means. future tax policy of India. Otherwise the
sacrifices and troubles of general public
What to do to improve the situation will be wasted.
Conclusion
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Key Words: Economy, Development, Corruption, Black Money, People, Banks etc.
Introduction:
“The demonetization, move could change the face of the Indian economy.”–Crisil
Report
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quarter of 2016-17. However the change with a score of 36 and it has recently
in GDP in a positive manner can be reached the rank 76 which is certainly a
noticed during the coming years. The good improvement but certainly not at all
demonetization of currency was certainly the desired improvement. The major
a bold step taken by the govt which was portion of this is coming in the form of
welcomed by the people of India and bribes paid to govt officials by the
across the world. The problem of civilians. The govt at all the levels I.e.
counterfeit currency can be abolished top, bottom and middle levels are vexed
only when the new currency was put into with this corruption. Economic reforms
circulation. This counterfeit and old are acting as a basic source of corruption
money left with the terrorists are only for many politicians. The sources of
pieces of waste paper. It is also a general corruption can be traced to scarcity,
view that every year nearly 70 crores property rights and their enforcement,
worth of black money is pumped into the transaction costs and information
economy and so naturally this will act as asymmetries, and political position
a blessing in disguise for the common and (Patibandla and Sanyal, 2009).
middleclass man.
Black Money in Hawala & Crime:
However this may not be the accurate
activity to curb black money as already This involves transferring of money
this money is pumped into the companies without moving and it and nearly $100
across the world. In case the people have billion to $300 billion are transferred
bought land, gold etc using black money every year through hawala. In India as
then this cannot be identified and taxed per the Interpol, hawala amount comes to
and hence these may not utilize 40% of the GDP every year. Criminal
affectively. However it is really not activities like drug trafficking,
possible to curb this evil immediately and gunrunning; extortion etc also can be
a careful evaluation of this scheme is to efficiently controlled using
be done. demonetization.
The main issue with back money is 1) Indian Economy & Demonetization:
who has it? And 2) How much do they
have? There are no real calculations on This process is going to hit the
the extent of black money available in the economy in the short term.
country and as per the govt estimates
Indian economy consumption
these may range anywhere in between
would be coming to a virtual halt.
$500 billion to $1400 billion and out of
these Corruption, Hawala and Crime are Service sector, which plays an very
the main sources and out of which important role in the economic
Corruption is the prominent one. activity will be the hard hitter.
Black Money in Corruption:
Sectors like real estate, jewellery,
As per 2011 reports, India has ranked in logistics etc will face instability in
94th rank out of 176 in corruption index the short run.
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daily wagers, laborers etc are singh and PV Narsimha Rao are credited
facing a lot of troubles. for saving the Indian economy by
globalizing it and today the fruits of
The market needs to be piled up which are enjoyed by the people of India
by Rs.100 and other smaller and that is the reason why they are
denomination notes before this remembered forever. However its now
scheme but unfortunately it was the time to see whether Mr. Modi will
not done. join the likes of Mr. Singh and Mr. Rao
and only answer for this can be given in
This was affectively done without the days to come and one should wait for
any announcement; otherwise this that time. Indians are always optimistic
would be of no use. in nature and towards this scheme also
they are optimistic and we sincerely wish
There are many problems as the
that our optimism will be paid and come
limit of withdrawal was not
true. All the Indians are eagerly waiting
higher. However this was good
to see their country and their economy as
because in case its higher it will
a developed one and the day is really not
again result in black money.
far where the Indian flag will be held
high among the likes of the developed
India, one of the largest countries
nations of the world. India will be the
in the world in terms of population
is moving towards a cashless largest democratic country with largest
population, secularism, tolerance and
society which is a good sign of
development.
digital literacy.
References:
Conclusion:
1. http://www.stanforddaily.com/201
There was no hesitation in saying that
6/12/02/indias-demonetization-and-the-
this was a very bold step and this should
future-2/
be welcomed by all but at the same time
one should also have a look at the bigger 2. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opini
picture in the days to come. One should on/2016/11/27/commentary/world-
not forget that this is what the people of commentary/economic-political-risks-
the country are asking for a long time indias-demonetization/#.WEaFQ9J97IU
and finally the govt has taken initiation
to start the same. The govt also should 3. https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfl
not forget that it had touched a bee nest y/articles/2016-11-09/india-chose-a-bad-
and if everything goes on well, it certainly day-to-usher-in-cashless-future
gets the credit and by chance
unfortunately if the implementation was 4. http://www.insightsonindia.com/2
a failure then this govt will be credited 016/11/10/6-discuss-demonetization-rs-
with the name and fame behind 500-rs-1000-notes-impact-terror-
jeopardizing the Indian economy which financing-200-words/
certainly is a hope of light for the
countries around the world. Manmohan
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5. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/21/i
ndia-demonetization-news-expect-short-
term-pain-analysts-say-as-growth-
expected-to-take-a-hit.html
6. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/wel
come/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sit
es/greatspeculations/2016/12/02/modis-
demonetization-is-a-cure-worse-than-the-
disease-for-
india/&refURL=https://www.google.co.in/
&referrer=https://www.google.co.in/
7. http://www.vox.com/world/2016/1
1/29/13763070/india-modi-cash-
demonetization-protests
8. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/i
ndia-demonetization-news-short-term-
growth-to-suffer-after-modis-move-but-
experts-expect-fiscal-2018-growth-
rebound.html
9. http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/if
-indias-demonetization-was-all-about-
going-digital-then-why-the-rush/
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V.Vijaya Kumar ,
Seniour Lecturer, Department of Commerce, Sir C.R.Reddy (A) College, Eluru-534
007, West Godavari District.
Abstract: Demonetization has caused widespread chaos in the nation, with people
(mostly lower strata) facing sudden cash shortage, long queues accumulating in front
of Banks and ATMs. It has also been argued that this demonetization strategy will
have no significant effect on curbing black money, because of two reasons: firstly ,
most of the black money is deposited in foreign banks and is not in Indian currency,
secondly even in India, a bigger chunk of the black money is not kept in liquid form,
but as Gold. Now, both of these are true to much extent but to focus only upon these
will not show a correct picture of the impact of demonetization. In November,
everyone appreciated the ban, then some started arguing and now everyone is
struggling. It is more like the hypocrite in us speaking this. Based on the facts, this
paper focused on problems of demonetization, and impact of demonetization on
common man.
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Need for the study: The 500 and 1,000 studied and identified the critical
rupee notes were the largest challenges facing the common man in
denomination of money, which made up India. The study has undertaken with the
for 14 lakh crores in circulation. help of secondary sources of data and
Demonetization has a direct impact on already published data like news papers,
sectors dealing with cash—vendors, auto websites and different reports given by
rickshawwallahs, taxi drivers, daily wage the government.
earners and small traders. The Indian Problems of demonetization:
system mainly functions on cash, and so, The demonetization of currency
less cash means disruption in the flow. denomination was also made in the past.
Even sectors like real estate, which deal In January, 1946, denominations of 1,000
with illegal cash transactions, will go and 10,000 rupees were demonetized and
through a rough patch leading to fall in new notes of 1,000, 5,000 and 10,000
profits. Further, When money is were introduced in 1954 and again these
deposited in the bank, one earns interest notes were abolished by the coalition
for the same. After the announcement of government on 16th January 1978 to curb
note ban, there have been huge cash counterfeit money and black money.
deposits in banks. In fact, some of the Now, after the announcement of
leading public and private banks have demonetization many officials, politicians
reduced the interest rates on deposits. and presidents and prime ministers of
Depositors might get lesser interest on different nations has praised Mr. Modi to
their deposits, but the good news is that take this initiative. Even though it is a
it will have a long-term positive effect on good task, it does affect common man a
the economy as the lending rate (interest lot and made him uncomfortable with
rate on loan) will fall. This will boost this decision.
credit and investment, to recover the There are some other problems as with
slumping economy, with this backdrop, along the good things that,
the present study taken up for examine The scarcity of cash due to this
the impact of demonetization on common policy has led to chaos and most people
man. holding old bank notes, faced difficulties
Objectives of the study: to exchange them by standing in the
Keeping in view of above endless queue outside of banks and ATMs
mentioned facts, the following are the across India, has become a daily routine
objectives of the study: for millions of people waiting to deposit
To study the impact of old notes and to withdraw new banknotes
demonetization on common man form the day 1.
To analyze the pros and cons of ATMs and banks were running
demonetization out of cash aftera few hours of being
To offer suitable suggestions to functional and about half of the ATMs
concerned stakeholders. were non-functional.
Methodology of the study: Even there are cases of violence,
The study is basically conceptual in looting and deaths due to standing in
nature and for the purpose of the study; queue to exchange old notes and lack of
an extensive review of literature has been
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medical help due to refusal of accepting new banknotes and in some cases there
old currency notes by hospitals. were deaths, attacks, agitations and
the black money will reemerge as sporadic violence at banks and ATMs.
now paying bribes will be much easier 4. Transportation Halts: After
with Rs.2000 notes. demonetization was announced, about
In fact, if the same government eight lakhs, truck drivers were affected
does not come to power again, then there with scarcity of cash, with around four
may be the risk of reversal of some of lakhs trucks stranded at major highways
these policies. across India were reported. Even at major
Bribes may be paid in the form of highway toll junctions the toll plazas
gold, foreign currency or smaller have refused to accept old notes. Later
denomination notes or through consumer government has extended support by
durables. announcing of suspension of toll
The whole plan may boomerang collections on all national highways
as there is a complete demand collapse across India until 2nd December.
and people lose their jobs in unorganized 5. Agriculture: Business
sector in the near term. transactions in the agricultural sector are
Impact of demonetization on common majorly on cash. Thus they were
man: adversely affected by demonetization.
1. Hindrance to daily activities: Due to scarcity of new banknotes, many
From the day 1 of the policy enactment farmers have inadequate cash to
common man has faced the trouble of purchase seeds, fertilizers and pesticides
doing his daily economic activities as the needed for plantation of rabi crops
old currency notes became invalid and usually sown around mid- November.
the only way for exchange is through Farmers and their unions conducted
banks. protests against demonetization as well
2. Inconvenience for having as against the restrictions imposed by
exchange of old currency notes at petrol RBI on DCCBs which were ordered not to
pumps and hospitals: people had faced a accept or exchange demonetized
lot of trouble to exchange the old banknotes.
currency notes. Even though the 6. Business: The blow of
government had said that the notes will demonetization has affected small
be accepted at petrol pumps and hospitals businesses and sole traders a lot. They
they have rejected for exchange in most have experienced the reduce of
cases and in some cases at petrol pumps transaction at their business as the
the person has to buy petrol for some of customers are in cash deficit and they
the amount he wants to exchange it for. cannot accept the old banknotes. This has
3. Inadequacy of supply of new also affected e-business units as they
currency notes even at banks and ATMs: experience a decline in Cash on Delivery
One has to wait for hours in the queues orders
for exchanging of currency at banks and 7. Investors: Investors also
ATMs but they are unsure about experience the effect of demonetization.
procuring the new notes as the demand Many prospective investors had lost their
for exchange is more than the supply of investments in stock market crash.
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8. Rabi crop: Sowing of rabi crop who read the history, which was
slowed down in the last week of announced over All India Radio. Then,
November compared with a normal India was not digital enough. We did not
season. According to a report by have too many banks. But today, it is
Edelweiss Securities, while 50 per cent of slightly a different story.
the rabi sowing has been completed, The men and women who have cash in
sowing activity remained slower than their hands as part of their idea of
normal until November 25 because of the savings, accumulating cash for an
cash crunch in the economy. However, it emergency expense. A habit from the past
was still 4.5 per cent higher on a year-on- without ATMs and Digital Banking. Do
year basis and 7.5 per cent lower than a not see that habit changing, especially
normal sowing season. Last year, the given the fact that money from ATMs is
sowing activity was impacted by low now limited and does not depend on your
water reservoir levels. Market experts account.
said the lower sowing of rabi crop could References
be attributed to demonetisation of Rs 500
1. "Withdrawal of Legal Tender
and Rs 1,000 currency notes, which left Status for Rs.500 and Rs.1000 Notes: RBI
the farmers short of cash. They are facing
Notice (Revised)". Reserve Bank of India.
difficulty in buying seeds and fertiliser.
8 November 2016. Retrieved 8
However, the government has taken
November 2016.
steps to ease the cash crunch at the rural
level. It has allowed state-run 2. Abhinav (8 November
distribution centres to accept old 2016). "Watch PM Modi's Entire Speech
currency notes for agri-input purchases. on Discontinuing 500, 1000 Rupee
9. Retail real estate: Retailers Notes". NDTV India. Retrieved 8
could see some impact on their November 2016.
business in the short-to-medium
3. "Demonetisation of Rs. 500 and
term due to reduced cash
Rs. 1000 notes: RBI explains".The Hindu.
transactions. The luxury segment is
8 November 2016. Retrieved 10
likely to be hit because of the
November 2016.
historically high incidence of black
money acceptance in this segment. 4. "Here is what PM Modi said
However, credit / debit cards and e- about the new Rs 500, Rs 2000 notes and
Wallets should come to the rescue. black money". India Today. 8 November
Overall, the domestic consumption 2016. Retrieved9 November 2016.
story remains intact, with no threat
5. "Notes out of circulation". The
to the overall strength and growth
Times of India. 8 November 2016.
of the Indian retail industry.
Conclusion: 6. "Corruption fight". first post. 12
The demonetization announced by Prime November 2016.
Minister Modi was sudden, and came as a
7. "BJP policy". The Times of India.
shock. People who were born after 1978
10 November 2016.
would not remember anything about the
past demonetization, except for those
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Abstract: The argument posited in favour of demonetisation is that the cash that
would be extinguished would be “black money” and hence, should be rightfully
extinguished to set right the perverse incentive structure in the economy. While the
facts are not available to anybody, it would be foolhardy to argue that this is the only
possibility. Therefore, it is imperative to evaluate the short run and medium-term
impacts that such a shock is expected to have on the economy. Further, the impact of
such a move would vary depending on the extent to which the government decides to
demonetize. This paper elucidates the impact of such a move on the availability of
credit, spending, level of activity and government finances.
Keywords: demonetization, cashless transactions, credit, tax evasion
1. Introduction regime: one, there would be agents in the
The government has economy who are holding cash which
implemented a major change in the they cannot explain and hence they
economic environment by demonetising cannot deposit in the banking system.
the high value currency notes – of Rs 500 This part of the currency will be
and Rs 1000 denomination. These ceased extinguished since it would not be
to be legal tender from the midnight of replaced in any manner. Second, the
8th of November 2016. People have been government might choose to replace only
given upto December 30, 2016 to a part of the currency which was in
exchange the notes held by them.1 The circulation as cash. In the other words,
proposal by the government involves the the rest would be available only as
elimination of these existing notes from electronic money. This could be a
circulation and a gradual replacement mechanism used to force a transition to
with a new set of notes. In the short cashless medium of exchange. The
term, it is intended that the cash in empirical extent of these two components
circulation would be substantially will be unraveled only over the next six
squeezed since there are limits placed on months. These two would have different
the amount that individuals can effects on the economy in the short term
withdraw. In the months to come, this and in the medium term, as will be
squeeze may be relaxed somewhat. The explored below.
reasons offered for demonetization are
two-fold: one, to control counterfeit notes To understand the effects of
that could be contributing to terrorism, these dimensions, it is important to first
in other words a national security understand what is it that cash does in
concern and second, to undermine or the economy? There are broadly four
eliminate the “black economy”. kinds of transactions in the economy:
accounted transactions, unaccounted
There are potentially two ways in transactions, those that belong to the
which the pre-demonetisation money informal sector and illegal transactions.
supply will stand altered in the new The first two categories relate to whether
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medium term. Within these, an attempt Thus, while generally people seem to
is made to distinguish between the effects expect prices to fall, it is quite possible
if there is full remonetisation to the that prices would instead rise.
extent of deposits made in banks and a
scenario of partial remonetisation. Alternatively, to keep the flows
going, people might take recourse to
Very short-term impact credit - both the retailers and other
The demonetisation, by removing agents in the economy might make
86 per cent of the currency in circulation, supplies on credit in the hope that when
has resulted in a very severe contraction the liquidity status is corrected, the
in money supply in the economy. This payments can be realised. In these cases,
contraction, by wiping out cash balances the price of commodities might rise
in the economy, will eliminate a number instead of falling. In other words, the
of transactions for a while, since there is impact of an incremental reduction in
no or not enough of a medium of money supply where the demand and the
exchange available. Since income and supply chain remain unaffected would be
consumption are intrinsically related to different from a case where there is a
transactions in the economy, the above drastic reduction in money supply and
would mean a severe contraction in outputs might adjust rather than the
income and consumption in the economy. adjustment being in prices. In other
This effect would be more severe on words, the expectation that inflation
individuals who earn incomes in cash and would decline might be belied.
spend it in cash. To a lesser extent it A further impact would be a compression
would also affect individuals who earn of the demand for non-essentials by all
incomes in non-cash forms but need to the agents in the economy in the face of
withdraw in cash for consumption uncertainty in the availability of cash.
purposes, since a number of sectors in the The demand from segments which have
economy still work predominantly with access to digital medium of exchange
cash. would remain unaffected, but that from
the rest of the economy would get
In terms of the sectors in the compressed. This would transmit the
economy, the sectors to be adversely effect to the rest of the sectors in the
affected are all those sectors where economy as well.
demand is usually backed by cash, Another sector where one expects to see
especially those not within the organised effects in the very short run is the real
retailing. For instance, transport estate space. With contraction in demand
services, kirana, fruits and vegetables from one set of agents – say agents who
and all other perishables, would face have earned unaccounted incomes and
compression in demand which is backed placed them within the real estate space –
by purchasing power. This in turn can either prices within this segment would
have two effects: while it is expected that fall or transactions would cease to
supply exceeds demand, there would be a happen. While of itself, this would be
fall in prices, however, if supply too gets considered a positive development and
curtailed for want of a medium of evidence of a correction in the
exchange, prices might, in fact, rise. unaccounted incomes, it could lead to a
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and the impact through credit available were hiding black money. Nor can they
to finance deficits. be interpreted as additional balances that
the banking sector can lend out on the
Conclusions same basis as earlier deposits, since the
The demonetisation undertaken by the deposits now would remain in accounts
government is a large shock to the for much shorter periods that deposits
economy. The impact of the shock in the based on savings would be.
medium term is a function of how much
of the currency will be replaced at the References :
end of the replacement process and the
extent to which currency in circulation is Internet desk. (2016, Nov. 12).
extinguished. While it has been argued Recalibration of ATMs will take up to
that the cash that would be extinguished three weeks, says Jaitley. The Hindu.
would be “black money” and hence, Retrieved from
should be rightfully extinguished to set http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/
right the perverse incentive structure in demonetisation-arun-jaitley-on-atms-
the economy, this argument is based on going-dry/article9338238.ece
impressions rather than on facts. While
the facts are not available to anybody, it Padmini Sivarajah. (2016, Nov. 11).
would be foolhardy to argue that this is Demonetisation: Madurai Corporation
the only possibility. As argued above, it is makes record tax collection on a single
possible that these cash balances were day. The Times of India. Retrieved from
used as a medium of exchange. In other http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ch
words, while the cash was mediating in ennai/Demonetisation-Madurai-
legitimate economic activity, if this Corporation-makes-record-tax-collection-
currency is extinguished there would be a on-a-single-
contraction of economic activity in the day/articleshow/55374378.cms
economy and that is a cost that needs to
be factored in while assessing the impact PTI. (2016, Nov. 9). Demonetisation will
of the demonetisation on the economy benefit economy in long run: Jaitley. The
and its agents. Hindu Business Line. Retrieved from
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco
It is likely that there would be a nomy/demonetisation-to-increase-eco-
spurt in the banking deposits. While size-enhance-revenue-base-says-
interpreting the phenomenon, however, jaitley/article9324312.ece
one has to keep in mind that a large part
of their deposits were earlier used for PTI . (2016, Nov. 12). Hyderabad civic
transactional purposes. For example, if a body collects Rs 65 crore of property tax.
small trader deposits 2 lakh Rupees in The Indian Express. Retrieved from
the Jan Dhan account since the currency http://indianexpress.com/article/india/indi
in which he held these balances in for a-news-india/demonetisation-hyderabad-
transactional purposes has been civic-body-collects-rs-65-crore-of-
scrapped, it would be incorrect to property-tax-4372156/
interpret this as success of the
programme in bringing in people who
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Abstract: PM Modi has announced a war against black money and corruption. In an
emboldened move, he declared that the 500 and 1000 Rupee notes will no longer be
legal tender from midnight, 8th November 2016. The RBI will issue new chip based Rs.
500 and Rs. 2,000 notes which will be placed in circulation from 10th November 2016.
Notes of 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 and 1 Rupee will remain legal tender and will remain
unfazed by this decision.
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growth. The GDP formation could be from the banking system to keep the
impacted by this measure, with a short term rates aligned with the policy
reduction in the consumption demand. rate.
However, with the recent rise in festivals,
demand is expected to offset this fall in Credit Impact across Sectors: Impact of
an overall impact. Moreover, this this policy measure will flow to the
expected impact on GDP may not be economy mainly through the Real Estate
significant as some of this demand will sector, which has strong linkages with
only be deferred and will re-enter the sectors such as cement and steel and
stream once the cash situation becomes which will turn credit negative in the
normal. short-run. A significant impact in the
short-run will be on the daily/weekly
Lower Money Supply has a Deflationary wage employment in the informal sector.
Effect: With the older 500 and 1000 The construction sector has one of the
Rupees notes being scrapped, until the highest employment multipliers. The key
new 500 and 2000 Rupees notes get segments of the economy where cash
widely circulated in the market, money transactions play a vital role are real
supply is expected to be reduced in the estate, gold and the informal sectors,
short run. Reduction in money supply can which may face near term contraction.
also have a deflationary effect in the With more money coming into the
economy. However, whether the impact banking ambit, deposit growth is likely to
of the reduced money supply will lead to improve and positively impact the savings
deflation or contraction in demand or a rate. The medium- to long-term gains are
mix of both will vary from sector to sector likely to outweigh the short-term pains.
depending on the nature of goods &
services. To the extent that black money Effect on Banks
(which is not counterfeit) does not re-
enter the system, reserve money, and As directed by the Government, the 500
eventually, money supply will decrease and 1000 Rupee notes, which now cease
permanently. However, gradually as the to be legal tender are to be deposited or
new notes get circulated in the market exchanged in banks (subject to certain
and the mismatch gets corrected, money limits). This will automatically lead to
supply will pick up speed. more amounts being deposited in Savings
and Current Accounts of commercial
Impact on Bond Markets: Surge in banks. This, in turn, will enhance the
deposits will create more demand for liquidity position of the banks, which will
government bonds and other high rated be later utilized further for lending
bonds in a situation of tepid demands for purposes. However, to the extent that
credit, leading to lower bond yields households have held on to these funds
especially in the shorter end of the curve. for emergency purposes, there are
At the same time, a reduction in leakages expected to be withdrawals at the second
in systemic liquidity will reduce the scope stage.
for open market operation purchases in
the coming days. We believe that the RBI Effect on Online Transactions and
will continue to sterilize excess liquidity alternative modes of payment: With cash
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since a majority of them are backed by Demand for Gems and Jewellery to
funding from bank loans. Demand from Decline: We can expect the demand for
investors for real estate however may gems and jewellery to decline in the next
come down since in some cases, investors two to three quarters. This would result
prefer cash transactions. If the in a weakening in the credit profile of
proportion of earlier transactions in the industry players due to the high working
real estate sector, which were allegedly capital cycles and high operating
done through partial cash payment leverage. The unorganised segment will
reduces, the registered prices for real be hit particularly hard, given the large
estate will go up. We expect the supply of proportion of unaccounted inventory and
real estate in the secondary market, high proportion of cash sales. Over the
which is strongly rumoured to have a medium-term the organised industry
large cash component involved, to suffer players will benefit at the cost of the
in the short term, which may in turn unorganised players. Gold imports
improve demand for residential real through the unofficial channels are likely
estate in the primary market. to reduce. There will be no significant
impact on jewellery exporters because it
In the medium term, the prices in this is mostly an organised market and sales
sector could regain on many fronts as are against invoices.
developers rebalance their prices
(probably charging more on cheque High End Retail Demand to fall: We
payment). expect the impact on high end fashion
retail and luxury goods to be more
Used car Sales May Fall: Sales of pronounced as discretionary demand in
vehicles in the second hand market for this segment will be curtailed. In case of
original equipment manufacturers will Quick Service Restaurants, although
get impacted, which will cause a ripple 60%-70% of the transactions are
effect on New Car sales, as buyers will currently in cash, the impact is likely to
not be able to dispose of their old vehicles be moderate due to the low ticket size of
easily. purchases and high likelihood of patrons
adapting to plastic money. We expect a
Slowdown in Discretionary Spending to limited impact to be caused on the food
Hurt Consumer Durable Sales: Sales of and grocery retail sub-segment, given the
White Goods like TV, Refrigerator & non-discretionary nature of purchases in
Washing Machine could slump as much this segment, since the buying cycle for
as 70% as a good portion of the market is the current month would have been
driven by Cash. This may continue for largely influenced.
next Six Months till the dust settles down
and there is adequate circulation of the Private Educational Institutions: Since
new currencies. Private Educational Institutions take
huge amounts of donations in Cash which
Prices are expected to fall only is 40 % to 50%, we expect that this move
marginally, due to moderation in will impact the Private Education
demand, as use of cards and cheques Institutions receipts.
could compensate for some purchases.
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Medical Institutions (Both Hospitals & the fruits and vegetables category
Medical Colleges): Again, as Medical typically require off-loading of their
Institutions like Hospitals and Colleges produce in the local Mandi in cash and
take huge amounts of donations in Cash could see an immediate impact. A sudden
which are more than 100 % of fees, we demonetization will adversely impact this
can keep on expecting that this move will segment of the economy and it will
impact not only the admissions but also witness immediate contraction, though
the receipts. this impact will diminish over time.
Political Parties: Elections & Political With cash transactions lowering in the
Parties are major sources of Black Money short run, until the new notes are
transactions. Most of the funding of naturalized widely into circulation,
National Political Parties is in Cash certain sections of the society could face
which is 40% to 50%, and when it comes short term disruptions in facilitation of
to Regional Parties it goes upto 50% to their transactions. These sections are:
60%. The sources of more than 90% of
such funds are never disclosed. Agriculture and related sectors
Candidates as well as their donors even
the Political Parties will feel cash Small traders
strapped. An assembly seat candidate
SME
spent on an average Rs. 4-5 Crores on
Campaigning that is likely to go down Services Sectors
drastically.
Households
This is going to cause huge craters on
their funding and will reduce their funds Professionals like doctors,
drastically. It is going to deal a major carpenters, utility service providers, etc.
blow to political parties fattening their
coffers with cash contributions in Retail outlets
anticipation of high stakes electoral
battles in UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa Conclusion
and Manipur. This stroke is bound to
leave big players hamstrung and The nature, frequency and amounts of
suddenly resource-poor. the commercial transactions involved
within these sections of the economy
Effect on Various Economic Entities necessitate cash transactions on a more
frequent basis. Thus, these segments are
The key segments of the economy where expected to have the most significant
cash transactions play a vital role are real impact post this demonetization process
estate / construction, gold and the and the introduction of new notes in
informal sectors as such. The role of cash circulation.
transactions in case of real estate and
gold is mostly dubious, however in case of Since most of the Rural Economy
the informal sectors it is the lifeline. For is based on Cash, it’s going to impact the
example, small and marginal farmers in Rural Economy
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References
1. Abhinav (8 November
2016). "Watch PM Modi's Entire Speech
on Discontinuing 500, 1000 Rupee
Notes". NDTV India. Retrieved 8
November 2016.
2. "Demonetisation of Rs. 500 and
Rs. 1000 notes: RBI explains".The Hindu.
8 November 2016. Retrieved 10
November 2016.
3. "Here is what PM Modi said
about the new Rs 500, Rs 2000 notes and
black money". India Today. 8 November
2016. Retrieved9 November 2016.
4. "Notes out of circulation". The
Times of India. 8 November 2016.
5. "Corruption fight". first post. 12
November 2016.
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a smooth transition through tax penalty of 200% of the tax owed was
demonetisation would be assured. imposed.
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One of the reasons behind the market were a bit exaggerated. Different
withdrawal of the notes of higher estimates put the value of counterfeit
denominations was that it was expected notes to just around Rs. 400 million,
that a large amount of cash would not which is just a fraction of the currency in
return to the system. But, as several circulation. So, reintroducing old Rs. 500
reports have pointed out, most of the notes, especially when they would now be
nearly Rs. 14.5 lakh crore of the filtered through banks, would not hurt
demonetised money that was in the Indian economy.
circulation will soon be deposited in Several banks, including the
banks. State Bank of India (SBI), have been
Experts would continue to debate complaining that the increase in deposits
the gains from demonetisation for a long would hurt them unless there is adequate
time. Some would argue that it has failed compensation. And since the RBI has
because people found a way to bring disallowed them from using the excess
money back into the system, denying the cash through a hike in Cash Reserve
RBI a windfall through extinguished Ratio (CRR)-a specified minimum
currency. Others would claim that since fraction of the total deposits of
the money has come back into the customers, which commercial banks have
system, it can be taxed and used by to hold as reserves either in cash or as
banks for cheaper loans. But the gains deposits with RBI-banks are complaining
through enforcement of tax laws, experts that they would have to pay interest on
contend could be slow and may not be these deposits without deploying them in
able to offset the disruptive cost of the market for returns. Obviously, if the
demonetisation, leading to a net loss to curbs on withdrawals are lifted, banks
the economy. too stand to gain.
But, what is clear by now is that the Though pragmatic, the reintroduction of
currency notes, especially the Rs. 500 the old Rs. 500 notes to address the cash
notes, can be easily used after withdrawal crunch would, of course, be seen as a
from banks once the full currency in rollback. And, in the context of the
circulation gets deposited; there is very heavily politicised debate around
little left in the market. It can be safely demonetisation, which is looking more
deployed to cover the shortfall in supply. and more like currency exchange now,
This will serve two purposes: one, the Narendra Modi government would
immediately improve liquidity; two, see it as acceptance of failure of the
minimise government cost on printing demonetisation policy.
and distribution of new notes. Loopholes and remedies: There
In fact, given that almost all the are some obvious loopholes before and
notes have now reached the banks, even after demonetisation. Some of the most
the Rs. 1,000 notes could have been put important of them are: 1. The usage of
back into circulation. But, since they debit/credit card is not enforced by the
have already been supplanted by Rs. government at least at the points of
2,000 notes, their absence won't hurt the travell i.e. airports, railways, state road
system much. Also, it is clear that fears of transports, and petrol bunks, govt. / semi
counterfeit currency flooding the Indian govt. bodies to receive money. If it would
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have been implemented there would be resulting in despair as ATMs will be out
no pathetic situation for the people in of money in just a few hours.
travel in midnight of 8th November’ 2016. As the saying goes, ‘All is well if
2. In the pretext of IT/Commercial the end is well’, it would be well for the
Department all the jewellery shops could intended intentions if prudent and
have been sealed in the evening of the practical solutions to alleviate the
day of declaration of demonetisation; as it problems of common people are found
was not done, a large chunk of the black and implemented by the government.
money became white gold money in the References:
same fateful night, shameless to the The adress of the Nation by the
planners and advisors to the scheme of Prime Minister at 8:15 PM on 8th
the demonetisation. 3. The new currency November’ 2016.
of Rs. 2000 denomination was exchanged News clippings of electronic media.
with the old demonetised Rs. 500 and Rs. Debates in National and Local TV
1000 in the midnight and the day after Channels.
with the collusion of Bank managers and Articles in National and Local prinit
the officials of Post offices, Road media.
Transport Corporations of State
Governments, money receiving agencies
of State Governments which can officially
deposit all the demonetised notes,
received unduly for exchange from by
influential people like politicians and big
business people, tuning to
thousands/lakhs of crores of rupees
which is evidenced by the new currency
found in the recent raids conducted by IT
department which is just a tip of iceberg
of the whole fraudlence allowed by non-
planning/recklesness of the government.
4. Farmers are now getting the money for
the sale of their produce in their Bank
accounts only; as such they have money
but the Banks are not giving currency to
them as there is severe crunch of
currency. If the farmers can’t get
currency they cound not go ahead for the
next crop because they have to pay
money to the menial labour in currency
only, if not for fertilizers/pesticides. 5.
Only a small percent of ATMs are
functioning to make common people
stand in long queus for long hours
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Abstract: The process of demonetisation involves either introducing new notes or coins
of the same currency or completely replacing the old currency with new currency. It is
an economic term which is used to mean the ‘scrapping of old currency notes and
stripping off their status of legal tender, usually when a new currency note or currency
is being introduced in the economy of the country.
Key Words: Demonetization, Scrapping, Dizzy, Card transaction.
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and many facilities for poor and needy start running to bank to exchange Rs.
sections of society. Capital will be 500 and 1,000 notes.
available at cheap rates thereby making 1. By replacing all the 500 and 1,000
Indian goods cheaper. rupees denomination notes, as ordered by
4. The Hawala industry which the government, could cost the RBI at
adjusted the cash at place against cash at least Rs.12, 000 crore.
another place has collapsed. 2. It will be very difficult for half of
5. The Pakistan sponsored the population who are not well versed
machinery of printing of fake notes and with the card transactions.
it’s induction in Indian economy, will be 3. The major problem is that big
destroyed on its own. fishes will be left out whose black money
6. The political parties who believed is in the form of foreign currency, gold
on purchasing notes from voters will now and property and stashed in tax havens.
need to gain votes on merits and
performance. Let’s all join together in this mission to
7. The Educational mafias can not take India to the next level and dream of
ask heavy donation for admission in Digital India.
school and colleges. References:
8. The crime against the women in News clippings of electronic media.
domestic world will reduce. Articles in National and Local print
9. The foreign investment will media.
increase and the demonetization will be "Demonetisation of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000
followed by tax simplification. notes: RBI explains".The Hindu. 8
10. The quality of public works in November 2016. Retrieved 10
government and municipal projects will November 2016.
increase by 30% as the bribes money will "Here is what PM Modi said about the
be absent thereby improving the new Rs 500, Rs 2000 notes and black
standard. money". India Today. 8 November 2016.
11. The decision on awarding Retrieved9 November 2016.
contracts will be faster as there would "Notes out of circulation". The Times of
not be need of giving donations to India. 8 November 2016.
political parties. "Corruption fight". first post. 12
12. The smugglers will find it November 2016.
difficult to sell in cash the goods. The "BJP policy". The Times of India. 10
contract killings will be reduced as the November 2016.
contract money will leave an evidence for "India demonetisation: Chaos as ATMs
cops. run dry". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 9
13. The environment mafias November 2016.
destroying man groves, illegal mining, "Demonetisation: Chaos grows, queues
sand exploration, tree cutting, hooch get longer at banks, ATMs on weekend".
making will stop as they would not have 12 November 2016.
money to bribe the officials.
Disadvantages: It will cause great
inconvenience to common man who will
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Abstract: The costs of the debit and credit card system are passed on to the
merchants who accept card payments. In the present scenario, credit card is a mode of
payment that is an alternative to cash. Credit card offers free credit, bears risk, and
thus is an expensive payment mode. However, the product design and promotions are
such that the pricing is kept hidden and the users are oblivious of the fact that the cost
is ultimately borne by them. Debit card is another alternative to cash. Though this
mode of payment offers no credit, carries no or minimal risk it has still been priced at
par with the credit card by the banks- a price that is borne by the cardholder.
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that the pricing is kept hidden and the Lower acceptability of cards by
users are oblivious of the fact that the merchants: The unreasonable pricing of
cost is ultimately borne by them. debit cards is a disincentive for small and
medium merchants, who have less pricing
Debit card is another alternative power due to their low volumes, to transit
to cash. Though this mode of payment to card based payments.
offers no credit, carries no or minimal
risk it has still been priced at par with Increase in cost of currency
the credit card by the banks- a price that management: In India, card transactions
is borne by the cardholder. at POS have been only about 5% of retail
sales. This large cash dependence (95% of
The costs of the debit and credit retail sales) imposes huge pressures on
card system are passed on to the currency management.
merchants who accept card payments.
Such expenditures for the merchants can Lack of accountability:
be as high as 50% of their profits. There Predominance of cash in retail sales leads
are two options for the merchant- (i) if he to deterioration in business
is not allowed to surcharge; he passes this accountability as transaction tracking is
cost to his product price. The card user, not possible, it enables tax leakage,
who ultimately bears the cost, is not able diminishes financial inclusion and
to feel this hidden price adjustment enables existence of a parallel economy.
upfront. (ii) If on the other hand, the
merchant is allowed to surcharge or offer Potential of fraud: There is
discounts for cash, the card user prefers greater risk attached to debit cardholders
to use cash instead leading to a payment in case of fraud as cardholder is deprived
by an inefficient mode. C. Drawbacks of of the money. Currently banks offer
the present system either pin-based or signaturebased debit
cards. As a lost or stolen debit card is
The oblique pricing structure useless without its PIN, consumers
that treats and prices the credit and debit usually prefer pin-based debit cards. D.
card in a similar manner has several Proposed action There is a need for RBI
drawbacks that hinder its growth / to subsidize switch charges, to promote
popularity and some features of the cashless payments.
product even cause potential risk to the
users. We list few of the drawbacks. The pin-based debit cards are
more secure than signature-based debit
Under utilisation of debit cards: cards. Since all existing debit cards
Though the number of debit cards is (signature-based or pin-based) are
currently 10 times higher than the credit already associated to a PIN, in order to
cards, the average number of mitigate risk, appropriate regulatory
transactions per debit card is 10 times measures should be put in place to make
less. On an average, the debit and credit all debit card transactions at POS pin-
cards together account for only two card based. This will use the already existing
transactions per day per POS terminal. resources and technology.
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Given the cost and risks involved The Government may also
in handling cash, banks need to consider promoting avenues where tax
favourably price electronic products and a benefits are provided to merchants for
situation where electronic products are accepting card based payments, e.g. an
costlier than paper products should not appropriate tax rebate can be extended to
arise. Thus, to glide through from cash a merchant if at least 50% value of his
based to card based products, our transactions are through cards. The
analysis suggests the MDR* on debit card government should minimize, if not
could be kept at 0.2% with a cap of ` 20. eliminate, the duties and taxes on
manufacture and sale of EDC machines
The credit card is a frilled to promote its acceptability.
product since it provides quick credit.
The interchange on credit cards should Mobile phones are expected to
therefore best be left to the issuer banks come up with embedded debit cards akin
and competition should dictate the to other utilities like camera, radio, alarm
pricing in consonance with RBI‘s general clock, etc. Similarly, normal and GPRS
policy on non-priority sector personal EDC machines will get replaced by
loans. The interchange, currently being mobile phones with EDC capabilities. The
borne by merchants, forms a part of the mobile phone debit cards and EDC
MDR. In order to provide a level playing enabled mobile phones could be linked to
field, it is recommended that the one’s bank account just like an ordinary
merchants should be given the freedom debit card / EDC machine and can be
to surcharge on credit cards. used for retail payments.
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References:
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Abstract: Cash is definitive in nature and cash exchange carries with it the writ of the
country to even the most remote locations. Informal sector is the largest employer in
India and runs on cash primarily. It also means that cash transactions on their own
are not the generators of black wealth. It is a highly advanced and dynamic manner of
doing business refined over centuries. Already there are reports that in the slow
demonetisation process, there are people like farmers and traders that are forced to
transact with old currency. Massive amount of currency has been sucked out of the
system and lack of assured transaction systems for rural pockets and informal sector
will likely add to the woes.
Key words: rural pockets, denomination currency, cashless economy
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References
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Abstract: The card based payment system includes the card companies (switch
provider), banks (acquirer and issuer), merchants and cardholders, and cannot
function in absence of any of these players. It is seen that though card based payment
systems have been in vogue for several years, its use and popularity is still very
limited. There are 190 lakh credit and 1,900 lakh debit cards in the system, but there
are just 11 transactions per credit card and one transaction per debit card annually. To
locate the reasons for the subdued transition to cashless payments, this study carries
out a review of the roles performed by various players of the system and then arrives
at a structured and implementable roadmap to move towards a cashless retail payment
system in India.
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for only two card transactions per day per measures should be put in place to make
POS terminal. all debit card transactions at POS pin-
based. This will use the already existing
Lower acceptability of cards by resources and technology.
merchants: The unreasonable pricing of
debit cards is a disincentive for small and
medium merchants, who have less pricing Given the cost and risks involved in
power due to their low volumes, to transit handling cash, banks need to favourably
to card based payments. price electronic products and a situation
where electronic products are costlier
than paper products should not arise.
Increase in cost of currency management: Thus, to glide through from cash based to
In India, card transactions at POS have card based products, our analysis
been only about 5% of retail sales. This suggests the MDR* on debit card could be
large cash dependence (95% of retail kept at 0.2% with a cap of ` 20.
sales) imposes huge pressures on
currency management. The credit card is a frilled product since
it provides quick credit. The interchange
Lack of accountability: Predominance of on credit cards should therefore best be
cash in retail sales leads to deterioration left to the issuer banks and competition
in business accountability as transaction should dictate the pricing in consonance
tracking is not possible, it enables tax with RBI‘s general policy on non-priority
leakage, diminishes financial inclusion sector personal loans. The interchange,
and enables existence of a parallel currently being borne by merchants,
economy. forms a part of the MDR. In order
toprovide a level playing field, it is
Potential of fraud: There is greater risk recommended that the merchants should
attached to debit cardholders in case of be given the freedom to surcharge on
fraud as cardholder is deprived of the credit cards.
money. Currently banks offer either pin-
based or signaturebased debit cards. As a In order to ensure that the freedom
lost or stolen debit card is useless without provided to merchants to surcharge does
its PIN, consumers usually prefer pin- not lead to a kill for card based payment
based debit cards. system (by disincentivising card users), it
is recommended that the no-surcharge
Proposed action rule be applied strictly to no-frill debit
cards
There is a need for RBI to subsidize
switch charges, to promote cashless In order to provide convenience to both
payments. The pin-based debit cards are merchants and cardholders, cash
more secure than signature-based debit withdrawal at POS should be clubbed
cards. Since all existing debit cards along with purchase so as to reduce costs
(signature-based or pin-based) are and increase efficiency in cash handling.
already associated to a PIN, in order to
mitigate risk, appropriate regulatory
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Benefit of pin-based debit cards: With a mobile phones can be used for cashless
view to reduce instances of misuse of lost retail payments.
/ stolen cards, one can consider (i) cards
having photograph of the cardholder and
(ii) debit cards which are only pin-based. Concluding remark
Usually, consumers prefer pin-based
(over signature-based) debit cards since it The report‘s recommendations will lead
is perceived to offer greater security. to a transition from the expensive and
Also, there is greater risk attached to thrusted credit card system to a need
debit cardholders in case of fraudulent based debit card system which is optimal
use as the cardholder is deprived of the for the economy and beneficial to the end
money users (merchants and consumers). It is
time that the artificial tilt that has been
Benefit of electronic information: The in existence for the benefit of the
information generated through card providers (banks and switch providers) at
payments would help track transactions, the cost of the users gives way to a
check tax avoidance / fraud etc., enhance rationalized system
financial inclusion and integrate the
parallel economy with main stream. As References:
the card usage gains popularity into the
hinterland, the system will generate huge
volumes of data on the spending behavior [1] Courier / Postal Charges Levied by
of persons in these areas. This Commercial Banks in India. RBI. June
information will help the Government in 09, 2008.
designing products that meet the
spending behavior of individuals. Over
time when card payments grow and http://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressRelease
represent a significant part of retail sales, Display.aspx?prid=18416
the card payments data could also be
used as a quick estimate of private [2] Approach Paper for Rationalisation of
consumption. Service Charges levied by banks on
Electronic Payment Products (RTGS /
NEFT / ECS) and Outstation Cheque
Benefit of mobile and prepaid debit Collection. RBI. September 11, 2008.
cards: The easy to obtain prepaid debit
cards have immense potential in a
cashless payment system e.g. it is a http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Content/PD
method of ‗banking‘ the unbanked, a Fs/86901.pdf
means of giving electronic cash, as a
method of giving cash gifts, etc. The [3] ATMs of Banks: Fair Pricing and
prepaid cards can be used at any Enhanced Access – Draft Approach Paper
merchant establishment which accepts dated December 24, 2007.
debit cards. Similarly, the mobile phone
embedded debit cards and EDC enabled http://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/bs_viewcont
ent.aspx?Id=1102
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[4] Levy of Service Charges for Electronic [10] Trend and Progress of Banking in
Payment Products and Outstation India. RBI Publication, October 2009.
Cheque Collection. RBI/2008-09/207
DPSS.CO.No. 611/03.01.03(P)/2008-09 http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publication
dated October 08, 2008. s/PDFs/RTP0809PRD_Full.pdf
http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/notification/
PDFs/87656.pdf
http://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/OccasionalP
ublications.aspx?head=Payment%20and
%20Settle
ment%20Systems%20Act,%202007
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Abstract: Despite possessing legal earnings, Indians (Mostly in rural areas) accumulate
their makings either at their home or lend them to the nearby surroundings. Even in
the 21st century, when the banking network has spread more or less in every small
area, money lending, the oldest form of business, is still effective in many areas, which
is not only affecting the registered bank’s business but also unaware to the bank.
Absence of intermediate denominations like Rs 500 and Rs 1000 will reduce the utility
of Rs 2000. Effectively, this will make Rs 2000 less useful as a transaction currency
though it can be a store value denomination.
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building a house; the bill is not paid Middle Class: The middle class of India is
through banks for sand, bricks etc. This used to use credit/debit cards and other
money goes into the other systems online methods to transact their
though it has been drawn from bank. business. They too have to stand on the
big queue for short time because they still
Small Farmers, Sellers, Merchants, Daily need the 100 rupee note for making petty
Wage Labourers And Traders Are payments. Yet they can buy most of
Suffering Because Of Lack Of Proper things using their credit cards.
Planning, Intelligence And Foresight
Such As Recalibration Of ATM Upper Class: The dishonest upper class
Machines. There Was Need To Pile Up is the worst hit due to this move of
Enough 100 Rupee Notes And Other government because most of their black
Smaller Denomination Notes In The money is stored in 500/1000 notes which
Market Before Taking This Step. would go waste. They have to either burn
Inflation And Bringing The Black Money their notes or give them to a large
From Abroad. Demonetization is an number of poor people (on commission)
established practice in monetary policy to for converting that to white. The
tackle black money. The Prime Minister currency would become valid once
has explained why this is a financial replaced by new notes, but the black
surgical strike. It was meant to be money would remain black.
suddenly implemented. In the past,
demonetization has taken place twice but
Short-Term Effects:
it fails because the idea is to tackle the
black money existing in circulation. This The real estate sector is likely to see a
is not tackle corruption per se or the significant negative impact in the
Government is not saying that 100%
medium- to long-term, particularly in the
corruption will be tackled.
repurchase market. There are
expectations of a revaluation of current
Long- Term Effects real estate transactions across the board
Poor Class representing possible losses to players in
the sector. The luxury goods market is
This class is affected adversely also likely to get affected as this move
immediately. This class hardly use debit represents an erosion of real wealth to a
or credit card. They also keep hardly any large number of people. Areas impact will
money in banks. They keep most of their be felt in luxury cars, SUVs, gems,
money in cash in their home in the jewellery, gold and high-end branded
higher denominations. They have to, products .On the positive side, there is
therefore, rush to the ATM and stand in likely to a reset of spending patterns as
the queue to withdraw their money to this move represents indirectly a
run their day-to-day affair. However, this significant push towards a cashless
problem is temporary and within a economy. Businesses in the fin-tech
month, things are likely to return to sector, including payment banks, mobile
normal. wallets, electronic transfer providers,
etc., are expected to see gains. .
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given higher withdrawal limit in such 2. "Demonetisation of Rs. 500 and Rs.
cases. 1000 notes: RBI explains".The Hindu. 8
November 2016. Retrieved 10
November 2016.
Cost of currency destruction
3. "Here is what PM Modi said about
the new Rs 500, Rs 2000 notes and black
After the news, we have seen that many
money". India Today. 8 November 2016.
individuals have burnt their cash and
Retrieved9 November 2016.
discarded the same, which is a loss to the
4. Demonetization
economy. The government has to bear
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dem
the cost of printing of new currency and
onetization.asp#ixzz4QRacCuLL
its circulation. It makes sense when
benefits of demonetization are higher. 5. 5. How Demonetisation Has Impacted the
Indian Equity MarketData as on
November 17,2016 (Source: NSE,Personal
Conclusion: Only a small portion of black FN Research)
money is actually stored in the form of
cash. Usually, black income is kept in the
form of physical assets like gold, land,
buildings etc. Hence the amount of black
money countered by demonetization
depend upon the amount of black money
held in the form of cash and it will be
smaller than expected. But more than
anything else, demonetization has a big
propaganda effect. People are now much
convinced about the need to fight black
income. such a nationwide awareness
and urge will encourage government to
come out with even strong measures.
There are only advantages of
demonetization in the long term. The
government is taking all the necessary
steps and actions to meet the currency
demand and ensure the smooth flow of
new currency.
References:
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Abstract : On 8th November 2016, night at 8.15 pm Indian Prime Minister, Sri
Narendra Modi declared that Currency notes 500 and 1000 would be invalid from
midnight on the same day and he also declared that in exchange of these old notes new
notes of 500 and 2000 Mahathma Gandhi Series would be issued and other bank notes
100,50,20,10 would remain as legal tender. This paper is an attempt to focus attention
on the practicability of decision by Government of India and its impact on Indian
economy and general ongoing life of common man. The incidents that have happened
so far are discussed with the help of material facts collected from RBI reports.
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Abstract: Demonetization means to withdraw money or the like from use. This means
it is the act of stripping a currency unit of its status as legal tender. Demonetization is
necessary whenever there is change of national currency. The old unit of currency
must be retired and replaced with a new currency unit. The goal of the demonetization
move in India is to make the economy stronger and eliminate the parallel cash
economy which is unaccounted and untaxed. While this can impact the GDP
negatively in the short-term, it should have positive long term consequences. There
are multiple reasons why nations demonetize their local units of currency. Some
reasons include combating inflation, to combat corruption, and to discourage a cash
system. The process of demonetization involves either introducing new notes or coins
of the same currency or completely replacing the old currency with new currency.
However the demonetization that happened in India will have impact on economic,
social and political ramifications, both from immediate and long-term perspectives.
The objective of this paper is to analyse the socio, economic and political impacts of
Demonetization in India.
Keywords: Demonetization, Currency, GDP, Social, economic and political impacts and
Corruption.
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force those who have hoards of black It will abridge the gap between the haves
money to deposit it in banks. The and the have nots. However, there may
objective is laudable because black money be some difficulties for a couple of
is used to fund terrorism of various forms months. But this inconvenience shall be
to weaken economy. temporary and for short-term.
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The society will become more unchallenged for next half a century.
equitable with lesser class Hence, despite pain, the country is
distinction. unified in this rare opportunity, to
Politics may change forever. cleanse the economy from cancer of
Cashiers and bankers will get due corruption, on its way to become a
respect in society. superpower.
People now know moral status of
their peers and neighbors better. References:
Low-income people have been
impacted as their payments are Rakesh Bhalla, Demonetization,
delayed. November 24, 2016.
Some people may commit suicide. Sumit Agrawal, The impact of
Big blow to gambling. demonetization to the common man, 15
Impact on Indian economy: November 2016.
GDP will be impacted as Charan Singh, Demonetization of
consumption will fall – Indirect tax High Denomination Notes in India,
collection may be lower. November 30, 2016.
Disorganized work to move to Andreas Exner, Degrowth and
organized sector. Demonetization: On the Limits of a Non-
Demonetization may benefit India Capitalist Market Economy, 6 August
in long term: 2014.
o Income taxes rates may come down
o Loans will become cheaper
o Housing will become affordable
Conclusion:
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risk. Or buyer will have to arrange lower The impact of this move on the common
denominations and then pay. man includes:
Financial/business impact
Remote places: India’s remotest places People with large amount of black money
still have no access to banking and it’s are using unscrupulous means to convert
various services. For e.g. northeast it into legitimate currency.
regions. People from such regions will
suffer. To ensure smooth functioning, A taxpayer has to stand in queues to
SBI has announced cash being airlifted withdraw his hard-earned money.
from Calcutta to NE regions so that there
is no shortage of Rs. 100 notes. Online companies are having the last
laugh as most of the white income class is
Entertainment industry: Anyone used to resorting to online.
buying movie tickets at the
counter won’t be able to buy tickets if Small/medium sized business relying on
they do not have lower denominations cash transactions are seeing a total
especially multiplexes where ticket prices demand collapse.
are high. Gem and Jewellery business will be hard
. hit.
Ecommerce industry: Although
ecommerce is growing at phenomenal Real estate prices will fall and the
rate in India, mode of payments used by transactions volume will drop.
Indians is largely cash on delivery.
Because of this decision, their sales will Banks will be having a tough time. They
slow down. So this will directly impact will be flooded with cash\
businesses of mobile phone companies, Political impact
clothing’s, and jewellery especially as
they contribute to bigger chunk of online BJP will gain tremendously. Modi’s
ecommerce market places. portrait could replace Gandhi’s portrait
in coming time on the walls of
Insurance industry: Online transactions government offices.
for buying insurance is on rise but still
higher number of policies are sold offline. All parties will join hands to paint the
Since normal policy premiums are higher demonetisation scheme as a big scam.
in amount, policies won’t be sold offline Normal life may be impacted because of
by most of the companies. So those who demonstrations.
are not ready to buy online will buy
either at a later date or purchase using BJP may do reasonably well in Punjab
lower denominations. and UP elections.
There are numerous businesses such as
travel agents, ticket booking agents & No cash doles out in elections. Whole
many others will take a hit. electioneering will change forever
Social impact
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http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/
demonetisation-arun-jaitley-on-atms-
going-dry/article9338238.ecerun-
dry/srticle9339020.ece
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in a way it helps in putting an end this Addressing the nation, Prime Minister of
circle of people doing illegal activities to India provided assurance to the citizens,
earn black money and using that black he quoted, “I want to tell the people
money to do more illegal activities. again and again that the government will
Good amount of tax revenue: do everything to protect the honest” .
Another benefit is that due to The government efforts:
people disclosing their income by The introduction of Rs 2000 note
depositing money in their bank accounts has been controversial in consideration of
government gets a good amount of tax government’s efforts to suppress black
revenue which can be used by the money by eliminating bigger
government towards the betterment of denomination currency, what might be
society by providing good infrastructure, the strategy? It still seems to be a missing
hospitals, educational institutions, roads part in a puzzle. The present
and many facilities for poor and needy demonetization process has laid trap for
sections of society. smaller rats; it has potential to break all
Benefit from demonetization: illegal transactions in real estate, gold,
Every honest taxpayer should and a few other sectors where circulation
hail this decision. In the present of unaccounted money has reached
economical situation, black money has saturation point.
inflated prices in real estate, gold and a
few other sectors, making it a challenge Views and Counterviews:
for a common Indian citizen to invest. The idea of demonetization is good:
However the government’s attempt to The idea of demonetization is
curb black money will significantly lower good but it has to be taken into
the prices in such sectors. consideration that most of the black
Tackles funding to terrorism: money is kept in the form of land,
Demonetization would not only buildings or gold or kept abroad. What is
repair internal economic issues, but also in cash constitutes only 4% of the total
tackles funding to terrorism. Counterfeit amount of black money on which taxes
money is one of the main sources of are not being paid. Out of this, a lot of
funding for activities related to terrorism money is in circulation in everyday
Also, corrupted government officials and transaction like if someone is building a
politicians who have earned in illegal house; the bill is not paid through banks
ways will have no other option to put that for sand, bricks etc. This money goes into
money into usage. the other systems though it has been
drawn from bank. These things will come
“No pain no gain”: under control with this step.
As the saying goes “no pain no Small farmers, sellers, merchants, daily
gain’”. In the same way short-term wage labourers and traders are suffering:
constraints will be associated with long- Small farmers, sellers,
term benefits in this process, such as all merchants, daily wage labourers and
of sudden endeavor to convert currency, traders are suffering because of lack of
limitation of new tenders throughout the proper planning, intelligence and
network for a certain period of time. foresight such as recalibration of ATM
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Impact:
Tracks unaccounted cash, putting an end
to black money, good amount of tax
revenue, tackles funding to terrorism,
“No pain no gain”, the government
efforts.
Conclusion:
References:
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/
demonetisation-arun-jaitley-on-atms-
going-dry/article9338238.ecerun-
dry/srticle9339020.ece
4. Demonetization
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/de
monetization.asp#ixzz4QRacCuLL
5. How Demonetisation Has Impacted the
Indian Equity Market Data as on
November 17,2016 (Source:
NSE,Personal FN Research)
6. Dr. Rangarajan, The writer was
chairman of the economic advisory
council to the Prime Minister and
governor of RBI.
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Abstract: The Indian rupee (INR) is the official currency of the Republic of India. The
Reserve Bank manages currency in India and derives its role in currency management
on the basis of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. Demonetization is the act of
stripping a currency unit status as legal tender. Demonetization is necessary whenever
there is a change of national currency. The old unit of currency must be retired and
replaced with a new currency unit. There are multiple reasons why nations
demonetize their local units of currency. Some reasons include to battle inflation, war
corruption, and to discourage a cash system. The process of demonetization involves
either introducing new notes or coins of the same currency or completely replacing the
old currency with new currency. The government’s goal was to eradicate counterfeit
currency, fight tax evasion, eliminate black money gotten from money laundering and
terrorist financing activities, and promote a cashless economy. By making the larger
denomination notes worthless, individuals and entities with huge sums of black money
gotten from parallel cash systems were forced to convert the money at a bank which is
by law required to acquire tax information from the entity. In this context, this paper
highlights the Demonetization Practices – An over view it involves History of
Demonetization, views and counterviews, Problems in Implementation, Problems of
Common man and the need of the hour etc.,
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and black money. On 14 January, Raghuram Rajan that “steps like these
R.Janaki Raman, a senior official from rarely have striking results”.
chief accountant’s office in RBI, was
informed about the government’s Not in entirety, say economists,
decision to demonetize high – because high denomination notes
denomination notes and told to draft the returned eventually. And, such notes, as
ordinance. After the ordinance was we know are the basis of corruption and
drafted, it was sent to President N. illicit deals related to unaccounted
Sanjiva Reddy for assent. It was through money. The Rs 500 note was introduced
the All India Radio’s (AIR) 9 am news in October 1987 and Rs 1,000 note was
bulletin that people were informed about introduced in November 2000. The move
the policy decision. The difference was then justified as attempt to contain
between today and past is that the the volume of banknotes in circulation
current decision is dictatorial without the due to inflation. But in current scenario
assent of President of India. This jeo- Rs 2000 notes has been introduced even
pardize the constitutional nature of our before Rs. 500 and 1000 notes have been
democracy where the head of the country drained out completely.
is side lined in the name of secrecy. IG
Patel, the then RBI governor, was not in Abhiroop Sarkar, Professor at Indian
favour of the step. He felt that many in Statistical Institute, says the 1978 move
the government perceived the step as a had no effect on the circulation of black
measure targeted at the “corrupt money. “That’s because people don’t
predecessor government or government stack black money in cash. Rather, they
leaders”. In his book, Glimpses of Indian stash it in undisclosed accounts in Swiss
Economic Policy: an Insider’s View, Pate Banks. So demonetization won’t affect
writes that when the then finance the big fish,” he explained to IANS. Here,
minister HM Patel told him about the it’s pertinent to mention that touts made
step, he asserted that steps like these most of the move in initial days. As
rarely have striking results. He added people didn’t want to deposit their money
that most people in possession of black in banks fearing tax problems, they fell
money rarely keep their ill-gotten for the touts instead. Anil Harish, a
earnings in the form of currency for long. senior advocate told TOI, “At places like
Thinking that black money is stashed Crawford Market and Zaveri Bazar,
away under mattresses or suitcases is people were selling Rs 1,000 notes for as
naïve, he said. Black money stashed as little as Rs 300.” The same is happening
high-value currency is much less than today where at 20 per cent to 30 per cent
black money as untaxed income, part of discount the money is getting exchanged.
which might be splurged in conspicuous
consumption or used for investment in In 2016, the Indian government decided
real estate, commodities, stocks, benami to demonetize the 500- and 1000- rupee
lending or plain graft to secure political notes, the two biggest denomination
or administrative goodwill,” the same is notes. These notes accounted for 86 per
the view of our former RBI Governor cent of the country’s cash supply. The
government’s goal was to eradicate
counterfeit currency, fight tax evasion,
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eliminate black money gotten from on GDP growth, inflation and bringing
money laundering and terrorist financing the black money from abroad.
activities, and promote a cashless
economy. By making the larger Demonetization is an established practice
denomination notes worthless, in monetary policy to tackle black money.
individuals and entities with huge sums The Prime Minister has explained why
of black money gotten from parallel cash this is a financial surgical strike. It was
systems were forced to convert the money meant to be suddenly implemented. In
at a bank which is by law required to the past, demonetization has taken place
acquire tax information from the entity. twice but it fails because the idea is to
If the entity could not provide proof of tackle the black money existing in
making any tax payments on the cash, a circulation. This is not tackle corruption
tax penalty of 200 per cent of the tax per se or the Government is not saying
owed was imposed. that 100 per cent corruption will be
tackled. If announcement and time
would have been given, this step might
not have been successful in controlling
Views and Counterviews black money and counterfeit currency in
circulation coming from Pakistan, Nepal
The idea of demonetization is good but it or other countries.
has to be taken into consideration that People are facing problems because the
most of the black money is kept in the limit of withdrawal has not been kept at a
form of land, buildings or gold or kept higher level. If this would have been kept
abroad. What is in cash constitutes only 4 at a higher level, there were chances
per cent of the total amount of black that the recycling of black money might
money on which taxes are not being paid. begin. The ideal money in circulation has
Out of this, a lot of money is in to come to the banking channels.
circulation in everyday transaction like if It is also being said that what is being
someone is building a house; the bill is attempted is replacement of currency and
not paid through banks for sand, bricks not demonetization itself which was
etc. This money goes into the other unnecessary. This is a terrible setback for
systems though it has been drawn from the international standing of the Indian
bank. These things will come under economy. At this time, the economy is
control with this step. Small farmers, struggling with slowdown. There is
sellers, merchants, daily wage labourers demand sluggishness in the economy
and traders are suffering because of lack leading to practically no private sector
of proper planning, intelligence and investment and stagnant industrial
foresight such as recalibration of ATM growth. If we look at the farm sector, this
machines. There was need to pile up is the harvest time. Farmers generally
enough 100 Rupee notes and other deal in cash and India is also largely a
smaller denomination notes in the cash economy. The cash transactions in
market before taking this step. It is being this economy are far more than the total
said by critics that this step was taken number of electronic transactions done
only to bolster the image of the Prime on a daily basis. In the tribal heartland of
Minister as he has been unable to deliver the country, the poor people through
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middlemen are getting their currencies one week. All the construction sites are
exchanged for Rs.300 or Rs.400 because either closed or working with half labour.
of lack of proper information which is All small shopkeepers like cloth
hitting them. The stock of the black merchant, moblie shop, accessories
economy constitutes a major part of the vendor cannot procure goods. The cost of
GDP is significant. Even if 50 per cent of purchasing is somewhere between fifty
this amount is withdrawn, the kind of thousand to one lakh Rs. The daily
relief that RBI will get on its liabilities revenue which used to Rs. 2000 average a
and the sort of deposits commercial day has dropped to Rs. 300 per day.
banks will get will lead to a rise in the Who is responsible for the
deposit and later on there will be number of death of the innocent citizen
decrease in lending rates plus fiscal who was deprived of medical facility due
deficit. The black money in circulation is to lack of legal currency.
like a steroid in the economy which keeps The marriages which are getting
the demand going gives a feeling that affected contrast to the BJP minister
everything is working well. The problem spending Rs. 500 crore on his daughters’
is that investment is not taking place in marriage.
the economy and the rate of growth of Small vegetable farmers sitting
capital formation is down. The only way road side cannot sell vegetables because
to bring this up is to divert more funds people are now going to big balls to
into investments which will happen when purchase vegetable by cards.
the cost of capital comes down. Similarly small business shops
sell has dropped to 10 per cent in absence
of legal currency.
Problems in Implementation and Products of non-essential
Problems of Common Public commodities have fallen and essential
commodities are increasing. In two days
The common man, who are the price of wheat has increased by 18 per
illiterate and have no access to banking cent.
facilities, will be the ones to be hit by The price of agro products for
such steps. next cycle will increase because farmers
Most of the country’s ATMs are in absence of legal cash have missed the
not built to accommodate the new harvest season. Instead of using seeds
Rs.2,000 and Rs. 500 notes. Thousands of they are using grains which will also
engineers are working as fast as possible result in poor yield.
to retrofit the country’s 2.18 lakh ATMs. Till today around Rs.5 lakh crore
This enormous undertaking is expected rupees have been deposited in bank on
to take a few more weeks. 21st November 2016. This has only sucked
Two lakh labour’s working for the liquidity from the market affecting
construction and other labour intensive the spending capacity of common man. It
business. Out of this more than 50000 are has nothing to do with black money.
jobless because the contractor does not The head of All India Bank
have cash to pay them daily wages. No Officer’s Confederation, D Thomas
one can withdraw more than Rs. 24000 in Franco, called for the resignation of
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India is the second largest populous country in the world with 130 crores of
population. 27 crores of people in India are suffering absolute poverty Literacy rate is
only 75 percent. 70 percent of population live in rural areas. 52 percent of working
population depend on agriculture for their livelihood. 90 percent of industrial workers
are engaged in unorganized sector. Indian economy is cash based economy. Therefore,
demonetization is the cause for the difficulties in the circulation of money and the
shortage of money in the short run. However, it will help our country in the long run.
It would increase the deposits in the banks and revenue base of the government that
can be used in the development our country.
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cheques came in to usage. Now it is time Demonetization along with other suitable
for digital money and online transactions. measures of monetary and fiscal policies
According to Reserve Bank of India, play an important role in our economic
the four measures of money stocks are development.
M1,M2,M3,M4.
M1 = Currency + Demand deposits Conclusion:
of commercial banks. Some people have been asking for
M2 = M1 + Saving deposits with post demonetization since a long time which
offices. has finally been taken up. We can say
M3 = M1 + Time deposits in that demonetization of currency is a
commercial banks. historical and daring step and it should
M4 = M3 + Total deposits with post be supported by all. One should look
offices. broad and it will fetch results in the long
time. It would increase the deposits in the
(3) Policies of Economic development. banks and revenue base of the
Economic development plays an governments that can be used for
important role in the solution of our development of our country The
socio-economic problems. Institutional problems of demonetization can be
and Technological changes are crucial in overcome by encouraging small and
the development of developing countries medium scale traders towards online
in India. Monetary and fiscal policies are transactions and by orienting people
the two important policies of economic towards online transactions.
development. Monetary policy refers to
the regulation of money supply by the References
central bank. The policies of the 1. M.C.Vaish: Monetary Theory.
Government with regard to tax, public 2. M.C.Vaish: Macro Economic
expenditure, public debt and deficit Theory.
financing are called fiscal policies. 3. K.P.M. Sundaram: Money,
Banking, Trade and Exchange.
For sustained development of the 4. Gaurav Datt and Aswin Mahajan:
economy, inflationary and deflationary Datt and Sundaram Indian
conditions must not prevail in the Economy
economy. The central bank fallows dear 5. Eenadu Telugu daily
money policy during inflation and cheap Newspapers.
money policy during deflation. The
government increases taxes, public debt,
reduces public expenditure and deficit
finance during inflation and reduces
taxes, public debt, increase public
expenditure and deficit finance during
deflation. Today we need sufficient funds
available at low rates of interest for the
development of private and public sectors
and inflation must also be checked.
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Abstract:
The potential of electronic payments for providing meaningful inclusion as well as to
reduce cash in the economic system was not in doubt anymore and even sceptical
banks were aggressively contemplating launching or acquiring wallets. Merchants
prefer not to keep records to avoid tax payments and the buyers find cash payments
more convenient. Cash less transactions will depend on several things such as
awareness, technological developments and government interventions. A material
transaction to cash less economy will depend on several factors like availability and
high quality telecom network.
Key words: Financial Inclusion, electronic payments, normal money transactions
and told through its milestones, including
Introduction loan waivers, schemes to lend to priority
On 8th November,2016, Pradhana sectors with or without interest sub
Manthri Sri Narendra Modi announced ventures, no frills accounts, micro
that the Rs.500 and 1000 currency notes insurance, rural branches and recently
will not treated as legal tender money in large scale enrolment under the
business transactions and in other uses. Pradhana Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana
With this statement for the last 30 days (PMJDY), post- liberalisation bankers in
many business transactions come down India dealt with the bipolarity of large
to 20 to 30%. In earlier times there is opportunities offered by or growth
very few electronic money transactions economy and meeting targets and sub
made in our economy. Due to our PMs targets under the ever-changing norms of
Statement the Central Government, Financial Inclusion. This paper attempts
State Governments, the RBI, all the to give detailed scenario of Cashless
Nationalised Public Sector Banks and Transactions in the Indian Economy, and
Private Banks, Non-Banking Financial it also give the details of the diversified
Institutions (NBFIs) moved to practice a products of the Cash Less Transactions
variety of products in the Electronic such as Banking Traditional Products
Payments System in all the like Cheques, Demand Drafts and the
administrative, business and normal Modern products like RTGS, NEFT,
money transactions instead of exchange IMPS, Mobile Banking, SMS Banking,
cash in physical form. Internet Banking, Debit Card, Credit
The potential of electronic payments for Card and Prepaid Cards etc.
providing meaningful inclusion as well as Objectives of the Seminar:
to reduce cash in the economic system To focus on the compulsion of
was not in doubt anymore and even Demonetization along with the pros and
sceptical banks were aggressively cons.
contemplating launching or acquiring To orient the public towards
wallets. Financial Inclusion in India can online money transactions.
be treated back to bank nationalisation
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References:
Annual Report of Reserve Bank of India
India 2016.
Economic Survey of India 2016
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Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
Abstract
‘Thou hath made me Endless; such is for theirs’ Pleasure’ is the noblest move
of Hon’ble Prime Minister Sri. Narendra Damodardas Modi. A positive, progressive
and prospective announcement towards ‘Demonetisation of Currency’ on 08th
November, 2016, could place certainly Indian Economy as one of the Top-1o
Digitalized Economies in the world. More productivity, greater accountability and
stronger compliance, lesser wastage, more evolution are parameters of ‘Digitalization’.
Networked Readiness Index (NRI) is an indicator to measure the competencies, and
competitiveness and well-being. No economy in the world is a cashless economy. All
economies even advanced economies, which have a lot of transactions online, etc.,
Demonetisation is a right move towards the right reasons with a stated vision. The
move from informal economy to formal economy, from black to white, cash based to
cashless certainly boost GDP growth, will transform Indian Economy into Digital
Economy and improves international rank profile of India amongst 168 countries
during Modi’s regime. Beginning is Noble but the path to heaven is full of sinners and
believers. The act may be a democratic or despotic the ripening fruits have to reach the
common minimum man at length and breadth. An attempt has been made in the paper
to present historical antecedents of demonetization in India, Value of INR prior and
post demonetization, the structural benefits and despotic actions and also suggest the
right maladies for turning around Indian Economy towards Digital and Cashless
Economies. The long-run gains of demonetization depend on execution and
implementation not intentions, not aspirations, but whether the government can
deliver on its promises. Undoubtedly, Indian Economy will emerge as one of the
Utopian Economies in the world in the regime of Sri. Narendra Modi.
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International Journal of Academic Research
ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
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International Journal of Academic Research
ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
Source:www.xe.com
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International Journal of Academic Research
ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
sharper fall in Rural Versus Urban India has the highest ratio of
Inflation is possible due to downward Cash / GDP in the world.6 The average
pressure on Prices lead to lower demand number of cashless transactions per
especially in Housing, Transport and person per year in the country stood at
Food where share of cash transactions is just 11 where as in USA this is around
high. However, the impact on inflation is 400. The value of cash transaction in
to be neutral in the medium-to-long term. India, as a percentage of Total Consumer
Over the long-term, Tuesday’s Payments was approximately 86 per cent
move buoyantly improves Government’s in 2012.7 This number might have come
Fiscal Position and Revenues in the form down by picking up in Electronic
of Taxes. Direct Tax collections are just Transactions. The unaccounted $479
about 5.5 per cent of GDP and about 50 billion money should get mainstreamed,
per cent of Total Tax Collections and this inflation would tread down as demand
contribution is expected to rise in future. slows in the short-term but the impact
This will also help the Government stick over the long-term would be neutral. But
to its fiscal restraint path. millions of MSMEs in unorganized sector
Income-Tax collections are that use cash to transact will be
expected to kick-up as funds earlier inconvenience for a while.
unaccounted are get eventually taxed and
this One Time Tax collections in long-run Demonetisation - A Despotic Action
pave the way for better Tax Compliance Demonetisation, a positive,
and push up Direct Tax Collections in the progressive and prospective move
medium-term. Higher Income-Tax towards transition to the Digitalised and
collections arising from better Tax Cashless; it undermines notes, it
Compliance would also offer scope to undermines bank accounts, it
reduce Income-Tax Rates over the long- undermines the entire economy of trust.
term which would increase Disposable That is the sense in which it is despotic.8
Incomes. This can have a positive impact It is nothing but sucking 85 per cent of
on Consumption Demand in the long- the blood from the body in one go and
term. injecting new blood drop by drop.
In a country where 97 per cent of all
Public Investments to rise and
will also have positive spillover effects on 6
employment and income. The Investment . Ajay Shah (2016)., A Monetary Economics
View of the Demonetisation, Business
scenario drive up the supply capacity of
Standard, 13th Nov, 2016.
the Indian Economy, overall GDP 7
. N. Joseph, R. Korenke, B.D. Mazzotta and
Growth is expected to benefit in long- B. Chakravorti (2016)., Cash Outlook : India,
term. However, in short-term, the GDP IBGC Working
Growth may get impacted negatively as Paper, Vol.13, No.1, The Institute For
the Cash-Based Economy feels a crunch Business in the Global Context, The Fletcher
and consumption and investment School, Tufts University.
moderates. 8
. The Hindu, Amartya Sen terms
Demonetisation a Despotic Action, 30th Nov,
2016, p.1.
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International Journal of Academic Research
ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
transactions (by volume) are done in 86.40 per cent of its currency value was
cash, the summary demonetisation of bound to create chaos.
Table-2: Indian Population (Aged 15 Years and Above) - Status of Education
(in percentage)
Primary Upper Secondary Graduates
Population Illiteracy
Education Primary Education and Above
Rural 36.76 22.96 16.66 19.92 3.71
South Asia
Topic India BRICS World
(Excluding India)
Risk 14 28 18 35
Diversification
Inflation 56 46 46 50
Interest 48 48 46 49
Financial Literacy 24 28 23 33
Compound Interest 44 44 39 45
Source: S&P Survey (2016)
The devastating impact the decision has economy as a whole. The entire informal
had and is likely to have, both in the economy that accounts for 94 per cent of
short and the long run, on people and the India’s workforce
and 46 per cent of its Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) has almost halted. The
Liquidity Squeeze caused by
Demonetisation will be negative across
many sectors.
9
. Standard & Poor’s Survey (S&P), 25th May, 2016.
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
With 86 per cent currency in circulation facilities are limited in number and
suddenly becoming non-usable for created chaos.
commercial transactions, there will be
immediate impact on Overall Economic The Way Forward
Activity. It leads to economic
slowdown and acute shortage of currency Beginning is Noble but the path to
for industrial as well as agricultural heaven is full of sinners and believers.
operations. The impact on agriculture The act may be a democratic or despotic
and those dependent on agriculture has the ripening fruits have to reach the
been gradually unfolding. In the first common minimum man at length and
week after Demonetisation, market breadth of the nation. India’s ambitious
arrivals in select major States fell by 87 exchange of currency notes is novel.
per cent for soybean, 55 per cent for Very few countries have repudiated the
paddy, 61 per cent for guar, 51 per cent value of over 85 per cent of outstanding
for maize and 23 per cent for cotton. To currency. Rather than a ‘Monumental
sum up, Demonetisation is likely to affect Mismanagement’ and a case of
agricultural growth adversely and shrink ‘Organised Loot and Legalised Plunder’,
rural incomes and consumer demand. It the strategies to adopt for its success
has already created a serious credibility inter alia include: (i) the continuous
crisis for rural cooperatives.10 political will of the Govt., Of India with
rigor; (ii) Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
The total credit demand for MSME with which the scheme is implemented at
Sector over the medium-term would be par with excellence as per stated
Rs. 45 lakh crore, about Rs 5.15 lakh objectives; (iii) usage of plastic and digital
crore needs to be mobilised to address the money at large; (iv) perform extensive
near-term requirement. 11 Short-term analytics for cash deposit; (v) bring legal
turbulence observed in Real Estate, transparency in cash as well as credit
Jewelley, Retailing, Restaurants, transactions; (vi) strengthen national
Logistic, Consumer Durables, Luxury cooperation and coordination through
Brands, Cement and Retail Segments in different agencies; (vii) roll out customer
terms of slowdown in demand. This move due diligence, record keeping and report
along with GST will have a negative requirements; (viii) bring the segment of
impact on Small Businesses across DNFBP under the purview of enhanced
sectors and drive consolidation or gaining due diligence measure of regulated
market share for organized players. authorities; (ix) the exchange plan will
India’s current episode of also be aggressive and (x) providing
Demonetization has revealed the stark sufficient amount of cash in the market.
digital financial divide between urban
and rural populace and also info and infra No economy in the world is a cashless
economy. All economies even advanced
economies, which have a lot of
10 transactions online, etc., Demonetisation
. R. Rama Kumar (2016)., Brakes on the
is a right move towards the right reasons
Rural Economy, Frontline, 07th Dec, 2016.
with a stated vision. The move from
11
. ASSOCHAM - Crisil Study (2016). informal economy to formal economy,
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ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
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International Journal of Academic Research
ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.3, Issue-12(4), December, 2016
Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: drtvramana@yahoo.co.in
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Books:
Sundara Rao M., (1996), "Tribal Development." Tata McGraw, Hill, New Delhi, page. 250
Contributions to books:
Ramana T.V (2008) ,” Education- A multi-Dimensional weapon for all-round Development:
Edited by D.Pulla Rao, Development of Education-Emerging Dimensions in 21st Century,
Chapter 13, pp.190-202.
Journal and other articles:
Schemenner, R.W., Huber, J.C. and Cook, R.L. (1987), "Geographic Differences and the
Location of New Manufacturing Facilities," Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 83-
104.
Conference papers: Chandel K.S. (2009): "Ethics in Commerce Education." Paper presented
at the Annual International Conference for the All India Management Association, New Delhi,
India, 19–22 June.
Unpublished dissertations and theses:
Kumar S. (2006): "Customer Value: A Comparative Study of Rural and Urban Customers,"
Thesis, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra.
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Website: Kelkar V. (2009): Towards a New Natural Gas Policy, Economic and Political
Weekly,refered on February 17, 2011 http://epw.in/epw/user/viewabstract.jsp
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