Baked Goods in The Philippines PDF

BAKED GOODS IN THE
PHILIPPINES
Euromonitor International
March 2013
BAKED GOODS IN THE PHILIPPINES Passport I
LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

Headlines ..................................................................................................................................... 1
Trends .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................ 2
Prospects ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Category Data .............................................................................................................................. 4
Table 1 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2007-2012 ............................. 4
Table 2 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2007-2012 ................................ 5
Table 3 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2007-2012 ............ 5
Table 4 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2007-2012 ............... 5
Table 5 Packaged/Industrial Bread by Type: % Value Breakdown 2007-2012 ......... 6
Table 6 Packaged/Industrial Cakes: Single Portion vs Multi-pack %
Breakdown by Type 2007-2012 ................................................................... 6
Table 7 Baked Goods Company Shares 2008-2012 ................................................. 6
Table 8 Baked Goods Brand Shares 2009-2012....................................................... 7
Table 9 Sales of Baked Goods by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2007-2012 ........ 7
Table 10 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2012-2017 .............. 8
Table 11 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2012-2017 ................. 8
Table 12 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth
2012-2017 .................................................................................................... 9
Table 13 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2012-
2017 ............................................................................................................. 9
© Euromonitor International
BAKED GOODS IN THE PHILIPPINES Passport 1
BAKED GOODS IN THE PHILIPPINES

HEADLINES
 Baked goods grows steadily with retail volume set to increase by 2% in 2012
 Premiumisation is a key driver for growth of artisanal baked goods
 Packaged/industrial bread expected to see the highest current value growth in 2012 with a 9%
increase
 Average unit price edges forward by 3% in 2012
 Continuing to account for the bulk of value sales, unpackaged/artisanal bread set to see a
26% value share
 Retail volume and constant value sales of baked goods expected to rise CAGRs of 2% and
1%, respectively over the forecast period
TRENDS
 In 2012 there was a notable increase in the number of independent small businesses that
sold premium- quality artisanal baked goods. Entrepreneurs saw opportunity in higher quality
products due to the success of chained premium baked goods stores such as Bread Talk.
Better economic conditions in 2012 helped drive the trend for premiumisation.
 Baked goods experienced healthier growth in 2012, and is set to record its fastest volume and
value growth rates since 2008. Value sales benefited from the higher average unit price of the
baked good products – most especially the breads and cakes. Volume growth will remain
sluggish at 2%, although that is better than the 2009 and 2010 growth, when baked good
products became less affordable and the presence of alternatives such as breakfast products,
snack foods and sweets for special occasions limited demand for baked goods.
 Packaged/industrial bread is expected to record the fastest current value growth of 9% in
2012. Growth of packaged/industrial bread was the driven by the demand for convenience in
the growing urban population of the Philippines. Bread tends to be a common household item
and is typically consumed during breakfast or for snacks by many Filipinos.
Packaged/industrial bread continues to replace unpackaged/artisanal bread through
improvement in distribution and more competitive price positioning.
 Baked good products are set to post average unit price growth of 3% in 2012, which is
attributed mainly to higher manufacturing costs, to brand manufacturers’ increased
operational expenses due to raw materials price adjustments particularly in 2011 and to
higher labour wages. Packaged/industrial pastries experienced the fastest average unit price
growth, at about 5%, due to the movement towards higher quality brands such as Goldilocks
and Red Ribbon.
 Unpackaged/artisanal baked goods still take a significant portion of the market in the
Philippines. Unpackaged/artisanal baked goods tend to focus on niche markets. Due to the
numerous brands of both chained and independent bakeshop outlets, unpackaged/artisanal
goods are able to target a wide range of consumers in low, middle and upper income
segments. However, packaged/industrial baked goods has experienced faster growth due to
improvement in distribution and deeper penetration in rural areas. The development of
cheaper packaged/industrial brands such as Pinoy Tasty and SM Bonus (a private label
brand) has helped generate stronger sales amongst the lower income segment. Higher
demand for convenience has also played a key role in pushing sales for packaged/industrial
baked goods.
 White bread continues to contribute to the bulk of industrial/packaged bread in the Philippines.
Set to account for 45% of value sales in 2012, white bread tends to be cheaper and its flavour
tends to appeal to a majority of consumers in the Philippines. Wholewheat bread is set to
account for only a 28% value share in 2012. Wholewheat bread tends to find a market niche
amongst more health consumers as the majority of manufacturers continue to market the
benefits of the high-fibre content of wholewheat bread. Burgers and hotdogs are not regular
food staples in the Philippines. Therefore buns continue to have a limited share of the market
at under 8%.
 Single-portion cakes have higher volume sales than multi-portion cakes mainly because these
are offered at lower prices and are widely available in the supermarkets and other common
distribution channels. The single-portion cakes are also competitive in terms of quality and
taste. Brands such as the Regent, Cup Keyk and Fadgee Bar were amongst the popular
brands in 2012. Another reason for the higher consumption of single-portion cakes is that the
multi-portion variety is mainly consumed only during special occasions, such as birthdays, in
the Philippines.
 In-store bakeries are available in the country but are still small in number. Hence its value
sales are still lower compared to the sales of the branded packaged products and artisanal.
As of 2012, the presence of in-store bakeries had no negative impact on packaged baked
goods manufacturers and artisanal retailers, but in-store bakeries may gain share against
them in the forecast period if they are able to compete with them in terms of price and quality.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
 Gardenia Philippines continues to lead the Philippine baked goods industry and is set to
account for 11% of value shares in 2012. The company’s strong distribution in the Philippines
continues to be the main contributor to its strong performance. Gardenia Philippine also is
able to compete for multiple market segments through its wide variety of product offerings
ranging from low-cost products, such as its Pinoy Tasty bread, to more premium items such
as blueberry muffins.
 Goldilocks Bake Shop is expected to record the fastest value growth, up by 11% in 2012. Its
main growth driver is its store outlet performance, specifically in provincial locations. The
company has also improved sales through its home delivery service. Moreover, the company
continues to invest highly in product innovation by regularly introducing new flavours and
designs especially for cakes and pastries. The company has also been able to capitalise on
providing high-quality Filipino traditional baked goods delicacies such as polvoron,
ensaymada and pandesal.
 Key strategies for the most successful brands revolve mainly around providing consumers
with better value for money. This is due to the highly price-sensitive consumer base in the
Philippines. Product development also plays a key role in keeping consumers interested in an
otherwise mature market. Distribution is also a key sales driver, as many consumers tend not
to have any brand loyalty when it comes to selecting baked goods and tend to choose based
on what is available.
 The Goldilocks Bakeshop company activities and marketing strategies in 2012 included
competition sponsorships such as Goldilocks Intercollegiate Cake Decorating Challenge
2012. Company tie-in promotions such as those offered in partnership with SM Cinema,
Fashion Diva and Drypers Diapers were also quite common. Gardenia Bakeries Philippines,
on the other hand, used outreach programmes such as bread feeding programmes that
support unprivileged children, orphans and former street kids. Social networking sites such as
Facebook were also commonly used to build brand awareness.
 The baked goods industry in the Philippines continue to be dominated by locally owned
brands as a result of the numerous independently owned bake shops in the Philippines.
Gardenia remains the only influential international brand with a significant impact on the
Philippine market. Consumers tend to favour local brands mainly because they prefer the
taste of locally made bread.
 Manufacturers were active in developing new products over the review period. These included
Crossini rolls with Bavarian filling by Suncrest Foods and For Him greeting cakes of
Goldilocks Bakeshop which target men. Gardenia Bakeries Philippines and Red Ribbon
Bakeshop focused mainly on developing new flavours for already existing brands; these
included a triple-chocolate roll and butter mamon. New product developments continued to be
key growth drivers in this relatively mature market.
 Some of the key advertising campaigns of baked goods brand manufacturers in 2012 were
“Celebrate the Joy of Filipino Food with Goldilocks” (Goldilocks Bakeshop), “Overflowing Pure
Chocolate Taste”, “Butter Goodness Like No Other” and “The Chocolatiest Roll Ever” (Red
Ribbon Bakeshop) and “Back to School” with Gardenia and Cheeze Whiz (Gardenia
Bakeshop Philippines). These advertising campaigns appeal to taste, celebration habits and
needs of local consumers and have proven effective in previous years.
 The most common packaging used for baked good products in 2012 was flexible packaging
and folding cartons. Aside from these packaging types, there are no current innovations seen
in baked goods packaging yet. Flexible packaging and folding cartons are the most applicable
packaging types since they are light and less likely to contaminate the baked products.
 The high value share of artisanal players, Gardenia Bakeries Philippines, and Goldilocks
Bakeshop reflects patronage of the economy and standard baked good brands whilst the
smaller share of the French Baker and Boulangarie Franc shows low patronage of premium
baked goods. In 2012, baked goods of standard brands generated the fastest sales growth
because of the purchases from the middle-class segment. Continuous growth in employment
from business process outsourcing and agriculture improved the number of households in the
middle income segment.
PROSPECTS
 The overall baked goods industry is likely to continue to perform well over the forecast period.
Deeper penetration into provincial markets is likely to drive growth, specifically for
packaged/industrial bread, cakes and pastries. The strengthening economy and higher
purchasing power of consumers is also likely to help keep growth of baked goods positive.
 Volume and constant value sales of baked goods are expected to rise at CAGRs of 2% and
1%, respectively over the forecast period, with the constant value growth being nearly twice
as high compared to what was experienced over the historic period. All categories, except for
unpackaged/artisanal cakes and pastries, are expected to be on the positive side.
Unpackaged/artisanal cakes and pastries are expected to suffer due to the higher demand for
more convenient packaged bread, cakes and pastries.
 Packaged/industrial bread is expected to see the fastest growth over the forecast period at
3% constant value CAGR. Demand is likely to continue to remain steady amongst the
markets that the industry has already penetrated, but further growth prospects are expected
to come from provincial locations due to the improved distribution of packaged/industrial
bread manufacturers. Lower-priced brands are also likely to help increase consumption
amongst the lower income segment.
 Overall baked goods is expected to experience a fall in average constant unit price at a -0.4%
CAGR over the forecast period. All baked goods industries, except for unpackaged/artisanal
bread, are expected to keep unit prices low as result of stiffer competition between both
packaged/industrial and unpackaged artisanal manufacturers. However, average unit prices
of unpackaged/artisanal bread are expected to see an increase of 2% in constant value due
to the growing number of small and medium-size enterprises that focus on capturing the
upscale market.
 Distribution of baked good products in the Philippines is unlikely to see a significant change
over the forecast period. Although declining, other grocery retailers is likely to continue to
contribute to the bulk of sales for baked goods due to the numerous sari-sari stores
(traditional street stores usually found in residential areas) scattered around the country.
Hypermarkets and supermarkets are expected to become a more important distribution
channel for baked goods manufacturers due to the number of outlets and increasing
penetration in provinces.
 Promotional activities of baked goods manufacturers are unlikely to change over the forecast
period. Packaged/industrial bread, cake and pastry manufacturers are likely to continue to
focus on providing better value for money and use in-store promotions to draw in customers.
In contrast unpackaged/artisanal bread, cake and pastry manufacturers are likely to focus on
providing more specialty products and constantly innovating their goods to attract customers.
 Gardenia Bakeries Philippines’ new product developments may do well in the market in the
forecast period as Gardenia brand has a large following and is an established brand. Red
Ribbon’s new product development may gain patronage from the middle-class and upper
middle-class consumers. Suncrest Foods’ Crossini rolls with Bavarian cream are innovative
but may not succeed due to the intense competition in this area from other manufacturers.
The competitors may also be able to produce similar variants at a more effective cost.
CATEGORY DATA
Table 1 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2007-2012
'000 tonnes
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bread 127.3 131.0 130.6 132.0 135.6 139.5

- Bread Substitutes - - - - - -
- Packaged/Industrial 50.1 51.8 52.6 53.6 56.8 60.2
Bread
- Unpackaged/Artisanal 77.2 79.2 78.0 78.4 78.8 79.2
Bread
Cakes 29.7 30.2 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.9
Cakes
Cakes
Pastries 43.0 43.6 43.6 44.2 44.9 45.7
Pastries
Pastries
Baked Goods 200.1 204.8 204.3 206.6 211.2 216.1
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 2 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2007-2012
Ps million
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bread 12,189.6 13,272.7 13,908.3 14,649.2 15,566.6 16,618.8

- Packaged/Industrial 5,396.8 5,936.5 6,352.0 6,828.4 7,511.3 8,187.3
Bread
- Unpackaged/Artisanal 6,792.8 7,336.2 7,556.3 7,820.7 8,055.4 8,431.5
Bread
Cakes 7,625.5 8,067.5 8,302.0 8,578.2 8,896.0 9,202.5
Cakes
Cakes
Pastries 5,398.4 5,827.8 6,093.4 6,382.2 6,720.2 7,103.6
Pastries
Pastries
Baked Goods 25,213.4 27,167.9 28,303.6 29,609.6 31,182.9 32,924.9
Table 3 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2007-2012
% volume growth
2011/12 2007-12 CAGR 2007/12 Total
Bread 2.9 1.8 9.6

- Bread Substitutes - - -
- Packaged/Industrial Bread 6.1 3.8 20.3
- Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread 0.5 0.5 2.6
Cakes 0.9 0.8 3.9
- Packaged/Industrial Cakes 1.1 1.0 5.0
- Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes 0.7 0.6 3.0
Pastries 1.7 1.2 6.2
- Packaged/Industrial Pastries 2.2 1.7 9.0
- Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries 0.8 0.2 1.2
Baked Goods 2.3 1.6 8.0
Table 4 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2007-2012
% current value growth

2011/12 2007-12 CAGR 2007/12 Total
Bread 6.8 6.4 36.3

Cakes 3.4 3.8 20.7

Pastries 5.7 5.6 31.6
Table 5 Packaged/Industrial Bread by Type: % Value Breakdown 2007-2012
% retail value rsp

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Buns 8.2 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.7

White 45.5 45.0 45.2 45.2 45.2 45.3
Wholewheat Bread 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.0
Others 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 6 Packaged/Industrial Cakes: Single Portion vs Multi-pack % Breakdown by

Type 2007-2012
% retail value rsp

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Single Portion 86.0 87.0 87.5 88.2 88.4 88.6

Multi Portion 14.0 13.0 12.5 11.8 11.6 11.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 7 Baked Goods Company Shares 2008-2012
% retail value rsp

Company 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gardenia Philippines Inc 9.5 8.8 9.1 10.3 10.7

Goldilocks Bake Shop Inc 7.9 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.6
MLM Foods Inc 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.8
Regent Foods Corp 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Big E Food Products 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
Suncrest Foods Inc 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6
Red Ribbon Bake Shop Inc 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6
Universal Robina Corp 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
SM Retail Inc 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Boulangerie Francaise Inc 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
French Baker Inc 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Galactica Corp 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Marby Food Ventures Corp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Barley's Foods Corp 0.1 - - - -
Filia Foods Inc - - - - -
Joni's Cakes & Pastries - - - - -
Inc
Artisanal 52.4 51.6 50.8 49.7 48.8
Others 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 8 Baked Goods Brand Shares 2009-2012
% retail value rsp

Brand Company 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gardenia Gardenia Philippines Inc 8.8 9.1 10.3 10.7

Goldilocks Goldilocks Bake Shop Inc 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.6
Fortune MLM Foods Inc 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.8
Regent Regent Foods Corp 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Lemon Square Big E Food Products 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
Red Ribbon Red Ribbon Bake Shop Inc 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6
Jack 'n' Jill Universal Robina Corp 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
SM Bonus SM Retail Inc 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Fudgee Barr Suncrest Foods Inc 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Jam Bites Suncrest Foods Inc 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Le Coeur de France Boulangerie Francaise Inc 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
French Baker French Baker Inc 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Cupp Keyk Suncrest Foods Inc 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Mini Keyk Suncrest Foods Inc 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Pan-A-Cup Galactica Corp 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Marby Marby Food Ventures Corp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Barley's Barley's Foods Corp - - - -
Whammos Filia Foods Inc - - - -
Jo-Ni Joni's Cakes & Pastries - - - -
Inc
Artisanal 51.6 50.8 49.7 48.8
Others 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 9 Sales of Baked Goods by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2007-2012
% retail value rsp

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Store-Based Retailing 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

- Grocery Retailers 99.6 99.5 99.6 99.5 99.6 99.6
-- Supermarkets 24.3 24.4 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.8
-- Hypermarkets 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4
-- Discounters - - - - - -
-- Small Grocery 6.3 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.6
Retailers
--- Convenience Stores 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
--- Independent Small 6.0 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.3
Grocers
--- Forecourt Retailers - - - - - -
-- Other Grocery 66.8 66.7 67.2 67.1 67.0 66.8
Retailers
- Non-Grocery Retailers 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4
-- Health and Beauty 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4

Retailers
-- Other Non-Grocery - - - - - -
Retailers
Non-Store Retailing - - - - - -
- Vending - - - - - -
- Homeshopping - - - - - -
- Internet Retailing - - - - - -
- Direct Selling - - - - - -
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 10 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2012-2017
'000 tonnes
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bread 139.5 141.4 143.6 146.1 148.9 152.0

Bread
Bread
Cakes 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.7 32.0 32.3
Cakes
Cakes
Pastries 45.7 46.5 47.4 48.4 49.4 50.6
Pastries
Pastries
Baked Goods 216.1 219.1 222.5 226.2 230.3 234.8
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources
Table 11 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2012-2017
Ps million
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bread 16,618.8 16,866.1 17,151.9 17,486.6 17,863.9 18,295.5

Bread
Bread
Cakes 9,202.5 9,168.8 9,163.6 9,182.9 9,226.6 9,297.1
Cakes
Cakes
Pastries 7,103.6 7,129.3 7,174.9 7,235.8 7,312.4 7,415.5
Pastries

Pastries
Baked Goods 32,924.9 33,164.3 33,490.5 33,905.3 34,403.0 35,008.1
trade sources
Table 12 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2012-2017
% volume growth
2016/17 2012-17 CAGR 2012/17 Total
Bread 2.1 1.7 9.0

Cakes 0.9 0.9 4.4
Pastries 2.3 2.0 10.6
trade sources
Table 13 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2012-2017
% constant value growth

2012-17 CAGR 2012/17 TOTAL
Bread 1.9 10.1

- Bread Substitutes - -
- Packaged/Industrial Bread 2.8 14.7
- Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread 1.1 5.6
Cakes 0.2 1.0
- Packaged/Industrial Cakes 1.3 6.6
- Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes -0.6 -2.9
Pastries 0.9 4.4
- Packaged/Industrial Pastries 1.5 7.7
- Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries -0.6 -2.7
Baked Goods 1.2 6.3
trade sources

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BAKED GOODS IN THE

LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

BAKED GOODS IN THE PHILIPPINES

Bread 127.3 131.0 130.6 132.0 135.6 139.5

Table 2 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2007-2012

Bread 12,189.6 13,272.7 13,908.3 14,649.2 15,566.6 16,618.8

Table 3 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2007-2012

Bread 2.9 1.8 9.6

Table 4 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2007-2012

% current value growth

Bread 6.8 6.4 36.3

- Packaged/Industrial Cakes 4.7 4.3 23.4

Table 5 Packaged/Industrial Bread by Type: % Value Breakdown 2007-2012

% retail value rsp

Buns 8.2 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.7

Table 6 Packaged/Industrial Cakes: Single Portion vs Multi-pack % Breakdown by

% retail value rsp

Single Portion 86.0 87.0 87.5 88.2 88.4 88.6

Table 7 Baked Goods Company Shares 2008-2012

% retail value rsp

Gardenia Philippines Inc 9.5 8.8 9.1 10.3 10.7

Table 8 Baked Goods Brand Shares 2009-2012

% retail value rsp

Gardenia Gardenia Philippines Inc 8.8 9.1 10.3 10.7

Table 9 Sales of Baked Goods by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2007-2012

% retail value rsp

Store-Based Retailing 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

-- Health and Beauty 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4

Table 10 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2012-2017

Bread 139.5 141.4 143.6 146.1 148.9 152.0

Table 11 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2012-2017

Bread 16,618.8 16,866.1 17,151.9 17,486.6 17,863.9 18,295.5

- Unpackaged/Artisanal 2,265.3 2,242.6 2,224.7 2,211.3 2,202.5 2,203.4

Table 12 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2012-2017

Bread 2.1 1.7 9.0

Table 13 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2012-2017

% constant value growth

Bread 1.9 10.1

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