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Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (2009) 263–271

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Journal of Banking & Finance


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

The profitability of small single-market banks in an era of multi-market banking q


Timothy H. Hannan, Robin A. Prager *
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551, United States

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper examines the relationship between the profitability of small single-market banks and the pres-
Received 19 May 2008 ence in the market of large banking organizations and banking organizations that operate primarily outside
Accepted 23 July 2008 of the local banking market. We find that, in rural banking markets, the profitability of small single-market
Available online 9 August 2008
banks is significantly related to the presence of both large and small primarily-out-of-market banks. We
also find that an increased presence of large or small primarily-out-of-market banks in rural banking mar-
JEL classification: kets reduces the positive effect of an increase in concentration on small single-market bank profits. This
G21
finding is consistent with theoretical predictions reported in the recent literature and has important impli-
L10
cations for antitrust policy. In urban banking markets, we find little evidence of any relationship between
Keywords: the profitability of small single-market banks and the presence of large or primarily-out-of-market banks.
Banks Published by Elsevier B.V.
Competition
Pricing

1. Introduction We suggest two reasons, however, why these structural


changes may raise concerns that are ultimately relevant to policy.
In recent years, the US banking industry has experienced dra- The first relates to antitrust policy itself. Recent literature sug-
matic structural changes. The number of commercial banking orga- gests that if banking organizations operating primarily outside
nizations operating in the US declined from approximately 9200 at of a given local market account collectively for a large share of
the end of 1990 to fewer than 6200 as of year-end 2007. This de- banking operations in that market, then the traditionally assumed
cline in the number of banking organizations was primarily the re- relationship between market structure and firm performance may
sult of mergers and acquisitions. A key factor driving these be weakened, even for those banks that operate primarily or
structural changes was deregulation, which relaxed or eliminated exclusively in that market. Thus, a trend towards increased geo-
many previously existing geographic constraints on banking orga- graphic diversity among banking organizations could undermine
nizations, allowing banks to establish branch networks that span the fundamental link between local market structure and compe-
numerous local areas within a state and, in some cases, across state tition that forms the basis for antitrust policy in the banking
lines and throughout the country. industry.
As the number of large, geographically diversified banking orga- A second issue of potential concern relates to the viability of
nizations has increased, their share of nationwide deposits and the small single-market (community) banks. Despite the fairly
number of local banking markets in which they operate have in- dramatic decline in their numbers over the past decade-and-a-half,
creased as well. This substantial geographic expansion on the part as of mid-year 2007, approximately 3800 small single-market
of many larger banking institutions, however, has not resulted in banks continued to operate in the US, comprising more than 60%
any notable increase in the concentration of local banking markets, of all commercial banking organizations.2 These community banks
as traditionally defined by regulatory authorities. Indeed, from fill an important niche in banking, providing relationship loans and
1990 to 2007, the average Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI) personalized service to customers in their local market areas,
actually declined for both metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) particularly households, small businesses, and agricultural firms. Re-
and rural (non-MSA) counties.1 search indicates that community banks have a comparative advan-
tage in lending to ‘‘informationally opaque” borrowers, most
q
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not
notably small businesses and farmers, and that they continue to
necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Governors or its staff. originate sizeable shares of all loans to these important segments
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 202 452 3643; fax: +1 202 728 5838.
E-mail addresses: THannan@frb.gov (T.H. Hannan), Robin.Prager@frb.gov (R.A.
2
Prager). As noted in Section 4, we define a small, single-market bank as a bank that has
1
The average deposit-based HHI for commercial banks fell from 2010 to 1766 in total assets of less than $1 billion, derives at least 90% of its deposits from a single
MSAs and from 4291 to 3838 in rural counties over this time period. local banking market, and is not a subsidiary of a multi-bank holding company.

0378-4266/$ - see front matter Published by Elsevier B.V.


doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.07.018
264 T.H. Hannan, R.A. Prager / Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (2009) 263–271

of the economy.3 Given their large numbers and the special niche and the signs of these relationships vary with local market concen-
they fill, it is important to understand how the changing environ- tration and with the size of the SSMB; however, for an average-
ment in the banking industry affects the continued viability of these sized SSMB operating in a rural banking market with average
organizations. concentration, SSMB profitability is positively related to the pres-
It is useful at this point to distinguish between what might be ence of both LPOMBs and SPOMBs. Of direct relevance to antitrust
termed a ‘‘multi-market bank” (MMB) and a ‘‘primarily-out-of- policy, our results imply that an increased presence of large or
market bank” (POMB). The term ‘‘multi-market” literally means small POMBs (but not large non-POMBs) in a rural banking market
operating in more than one geographic market, and is often inter- is associated with a weakening of the relationship between local
preted to mean operating in numerous markets. The term ‘‘primar- market concentration and SSMB profitability. In urban banking
ily-out-of-market” is defined relative to a particular market, and markets, we find little evidence of any relationship between SSMB
refers to a bank that operates in that market, but has most of its profitability and the presence of large or primarily-out-of-market
operations elsewhere. Clearly, a POMB must be an MMB, but the banks.
reverse is not necessarily true. This distinction is important be- The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2
cause, as discussed in more detail below, POMBs are most relevant discusses the reasons why LPOMB presence might be expected to
to the first of the issues that motivates this study – the implied influence the profitability of SSMBs and reviews the existing liter-
relationship between the structure of a market and the perfor- ature related to this topic. Sections 3 and 4 describe the model to
mance of banks operating in it. The second issue – the effect of be estimated and the data, respectively. Section 5 presents the re-
an increase in the prevalence of geographically diversified banking sults of the empirical analysis, and Section 6 concludes the paper.
organizations on the profitability and viability of small single-mar-
ket banks – could be addressed with either concept, but we choose 2. Assessing the competitive impact of large, primarily-out-of-
to focus here on POMBs to address this issue as well. market banks
A priori, it is not clear whether the growing presence of large
primarily-out-of-market banks (LPOMBs) in local banking markets There are several reasons why the presence of LPOMBs (or large
adversely affects the profitability of smaller banking organizations. multi-market banks, more generally) might alter the competitive
As discussed in more detail below, large multi-market banks environment in which small single-market banks operate. A large
(LMMBs), whether primarily-out-of-market or not, tend to offer competitor may have cost advantages or disadvantages, relative
lower retail deposit rates and charge higher deposit-related fees, to an SSMB, as a result of either economies or diseconomies of scale
perhaps allowing competing small single-market banks (SSMBs) and (product) scope. Another size-related difference is the greater
to increase profitability by doing the same. However, LMMBs variety and range of services that the larger banking organization
may exercise a pricing advantage on the loan side of the balance may offer its customers, such as foreign exchange and investment
sheet, and they tend to offer a wider range of products to attract services. A further advantage of size often attributed to larger
customers away from SSMBs. In addition, LMMBs may be more banking organizations concerns access to wholesale funds. Park
(or less) efficient in offering the services and products that the cus- and Pennacchi (forthcoming) note that if large banking organiza-
tomers of SSMBs care about. tions enjoy access to low-cost wholesale funds that are not avail-
In this study, we seek, as a primary goal, to estimate the rela- able to smaller banking organizations, then large multi-market
tionship between LPOMB presence in a local banking market and banks may offer retail depositors lower deposit interest rates
the profitability of SSMBs that operate in that market. Although a and, at the same time, offer borrowers lower loan interest rates,
few recent studies have considered the effects of competition from than are offered by their smaller competitors.4 In addition, Hannan
large geographically diversified banking organizations on the prof- and Prager (2006) report that, even after controlling for the size of
itability of SSMBs, we go beyond the previous research in four the banking organization, deposit interest rates are strongly nega-
important ways: First, we focus specifically on large primarily- tively related to the number of local markets in which a bank oper-
out-of-market banks rather than large multi-market banks more ates. They speculate that this may be due to either a diversification
generally. Second, to investigate what we regard as an important benefit that reduces the cost of wholesale funds or the ability of a
antitrust issue, we test whether the relationship between LPOMB geographically diversified firm to offer a product mix that is highly
presence and SSMB profitability differs between more concen- valued by a relatively small fraction of potential customers in any gi-
trated local banking markets and less concentrated markets, as ven local market.
predicted by the models developed in some recent contributions Another potentially important consideration is the fact that, as
to the literature. Third, unlike any of the previous studies, we con- found by Radecki (1998) and confirmed by Heitfield (1999), multi-
sider the effects of LPOMB presence on the profitability of SSMBs in market banks tend to offer the same deposit interest rates in all of
both urban and rural banking markets. Fourth, we test whether the the local areas (at least within a given state) in which they operate.
relationship between LPOMB presence and SSMB profitability var- While this characteristic of multi-market banking does not in itself
ies with the size of the observed single-market bank. yield an unambiguous prediction concerning the impact of compe-
Any observed effects of LPOMB presence on the profitability of tition from LPOMBs on the profitability of small single-market
SSMBs could be attributable to the LPOMBs’ size, their ‘‘out-of- competitors, it does suggest, as we will see, that the profitability
marketness” or both. We attempt to distinguish between the size of small single-market banks will be less responsive to changes
effect and the out-of-market effect by examining the relationships in conditions in individual local banking markets (including, most
between SSMB profitability and measures of the market presence importantly, concentration) as a result of the presence of LPOMB
of LPOMBs, large banks that are not primarily-out-of-market competitors.
(LNPOMBs), and small primarily-out-of-market banks (SPOMBs). A few recent studies have compared the prices offered on retail
We find that in rural banking markets the profitability of SSMBs deposits by different types of banking organizations operating
is significantly related to the presence of both large and small pri- within the same local banking market. Hannan and Prager (2004)
marily-out-of-market banks. We find that both the magnitudes and Hannan (2006) find that POMBs tend to offer lower deposit

3
See, for example, Critchfield et al. (2004). It should be noted, however, that some
4
recent studies (e.g., Berger et al., 2007) find evidence suggesting the absence of such a Kiser (2004) also models the effect of bank access to low-cost wholesale funds on
comparative advantage for community banks. retail deposit interest rates.
T.H. Hannan, R.A. Prager / Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (2009) 263–271 265

interest rates and charge higher deposit-related fees than do sin- size of the MMBs and does not require any cost differential be-
gle-market banks (SMBs) serving the same local market. Using a tween MMBs and SMBs.
different data source, Park and Pennacchi (forthcoming), who focus The model developed in Park and Pennacchi (forthcoming) also
on LMMBs rather than POMBs, find that within a given MSA, de- considers the effect of LMMB presence on the profitability of
posit interest rates offered by LMMBs are significantly lower than SSMBs. The authors note that, if it is a funding advantage that dis-
those offered by small banks.5 tinguishes large multi-market banks from their small single-mar-
These same three studies consider the effects of an increase in ket competitors, then a greater presence of LMMBs should
POMB or LMMB presence on deposit pricing. Hannan and Prager increase SSMB profits derived from retail deposit taking because
(2004) and Hannan (2006) both find that an increase in POMB LMMBs with a wholesale funding advantage compete less aggres-
presence in a local market causes the pricing of deposits by com- sively for retail deposits than do small single-market firms. They
peting single-market banks to move in a direction less attractive note, however, that this increase should be less pronounced in
to the depositor (lower deposit interest rates and higher deposit- more concentrated markets, where, in the absence of LMMBs, the
related fees). Similarly, Park and Pennacchi (forthcoming) find that SCP paradigm predicts that deposit interest rates would be sup-
an increase in LMMB presence in an MSA is associated with a de- pressed below competitive levels (and deposit related fees would
crease in deposit interest rates offered by banks serving that be elevated above competitive levels) due to firms exercising mar-
MSA. The authors of all three studies attribute these findings to ket power.
the competitive interaction within markets between different At the same time, as Park and Pennacchi (forthcoming) note, a
types of banking organizations Although these findings are consis- funding advantage on the part of LMMBs should reduce SSMB prof-
tent with the hypothesis that LMMBs enjoy a wholesale funding its derived from retail lending. This effect occurs because lower
advantage, and hence offer less attractive prices for retail deposits, funding costs allow LMMBs to offer lower loan interest rates to
they are also consistent with the hypothesis that operation in sev- borrowers. They argue that this profit reduction should be more
eral local markets entails less efficiency in the provision of retail pronounced in more concentrated markets, where the SCP para-
deposit services. These findings do, however, cast doubt on the digm would predict that, in the absence of competition from
importance of the range of services offered to retail depositors as LMMBs, single-market banks would charge higher interest rates
an explanation for pricing differences between multi-market and on loans and earn higher profits than would single-market banks
single-market banks, since it does not seem plausible that a wider operating in less concentrated markets.6 Park and Pennacchi (forth-
array of services at LMMBs, if valued highly by depositors, would coming) conclude from this analysis that, although the direction of
induce competing single-market banks to offer the retail depositor the effect of large multi-market bank presence on single-market
less attractive deposit-related prices. bank profitability is ambiguous, an increase in LMMB presence is
Of direct relevance to antitrust policy, Hannan and Prager more likely to reduce single-market bank profits and less likely to in-
(2004) and Hannan (2006) find that an increase in POMB presence crease them in relatively concentrated local banking markets.
reduces the sensitivity of deposit prices offered by SMBs to mea- A few empirical studies have examined the effect of competi-
sures of local market concentration, and Park and Pennacchi (forth- tion from large geographically diversified banking organizations
coming) obtain a similar result regarding the effect of an increase on the profitability of SSMBs. Whalen (2001) finds that, during
in LMMB presence on the sensitivity of deposit interest rates to lo- the 1995–1999 period, small bank profitability declined as the
cal market concentration. This effect is predicted by the models presence of large multi-state bank holding companies in the same
developed in Hannan and Prager (2004) and Park and Pennacchi metropolitan statistical area (MSA) increased. Pilloff (1999) finds
(forthcoming), relying on the proposition (confirmed in several that the profitability of small single-market banks operating in rur-
empirical studies, as noted above) that multi-market banks tend al markets, measured over the one-year period from June 1995 to
to charge the same deposit-related prices in most local markets. June 1996, increased with greater presence of very large, regionally
Under these circumstances, changes in the prices offered by SSMBs prominent banking organizations. Neither study addressed the is-
associated with a change in local market concentration would be sue of whether the large geographically diversified organizations
dampened by the presence of competing MMBs. studied operated predominantly outside the markets of the ob-
The mechanism that explains this weakening of the relationship served single-market banks, although one can presume that this
between local market structure and the prices offered by single- would have been the case, particularly in the Pilloff study.
market banks is as follows: The traditional structure–conduct–per- The most recent study to look at this issue is Berger et al. (2007)
formance (SCP) paradigm in the industrial organization literature (henceforth BDGW). Focusing on urban markets, they examine the
posits a relationship between market concentration and prices that relationship between the profitability of SSMBs and the market
is the result of the exercise of market power by firms in more shares of large multi-market banks, small multi-market banks,
highly concentrated markets. The prices offered by MMBs (and and large single-market banks. BDGW define a multi-market bank
particularly POMBs) do not respond (or respond very little) to as one that operates in more than one market. As such, their multi-
changes in concentration in the local banking market under con- market bank shares include both multi-market banks that operate
sideration because they primarily reflect conditions prevailing out- predominantly outside the market in which the observed single-
side that particular local market. If MMBs, whose prices do not market bank operates and those that operate predominantly with-
respond to changes in local market concentration, account for an in that market. BDGW find that the profitability of SSMBs operating
increasing share of bank branches in a local market, then small sin- in urban markets was positively related to multi-market bank
gle-market banks operating in that market will have less scope for presence in the 1980s and negatively related to multi-market bank
profitably adjusting their prices in response to an increase in con- presence in the 1990s. They ascribe this difference in findings be-
centration. Thus, the traditionally predicted relationship between tween the two decades to technological progress in lending, which
the prices of small single-market banks and market concentration provided multi-market banks with an advantage that they were
should be weakened as the presence of MMBs in a local market in- able to exploit in the later time period.
creases. It is important to note that this effect is independent of the
6
This argument, of course, assumes that LMMBs and smaller, single-market banks
5
Park and Pennacchi (forthcoming) define a large multi-market bank as a bank that compete in the provision of at least some kinds of retail loans. If LMMBs focus on
has more than $10 billion in deposits; they assume that any bank of that size will ‘‘hard information” loans, while small, single-market banks focus on ‘‘soft informa-
operate in multiple local banking markets. tion” loans, as is often asserted in the literature, then this effect may be negligible.
266 T.H. Hannan, R.A. Prager / Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (2009) 263–271

3. The empirical model equation alone and interacted with both HHImt and ln SIZEi,t1,
the effect of each of these market share variables on SSMB profit-
Using a large sample of small single-market banks observed ability will depend on three separate coefficient values (b3, b6
over the years 1996–2003, we examine the relationship between and b9 for LPOMBSHRm,t1; b4, b7 and b10 for LNPOMBSHRm,t1;
SSMB profitability and the presence in the market of various types b5, b8 and b11 for SPOMBSHRm,t1), as well as the values of HHImt
of competitors by estimating relationships of the form and ln SIZEi,t1.
The signs of b3, b4, and b5, the coefficients of LPOMBSHRm,t1,
PROFit ¼ b0 þ b1 HHImt þ b2 ln SIZEi;t1 þ b3 LPOMBSHRm;t1
LNPOMBSHRm,t1, and SPOMBSHRm,t1, respectively, cannot be
þ b4 LNPOMBSHRm;t1 þ b5 SPOMBSHRm;t1 predicted a priori. As noted above, Park and Pennacchi have argued
þ b6 HHImt  LPOMBSHRm;t1 þ b7 HHImt that, because of a funding advantage, large banks will tend to offer
the depositor lower deposit rates, but also charge the borrower
 LNPOMBSHRm;t1 þ b8 HHImt  SPOMBSHRm;t1 lower loan rates. These considerations suggest that a greater pres-
þ b9 ln SIZEi;t1  LPOMBSHRm;t1 þ b10 ln SIZEi;t1 ence of large banks, regardless of whether or not they are primar-
ily-out-of-market organizations, will tend to increase SSMB profits
 LNPOMBSHRm;t1 þ b11 ln SIZEi;t1
that are derived from retail deposits, but reduce SSMB profits that
 SPOMBSHRm;t1 þ b12 ln POPmt þ b13 PCImt are derived from lending. In addition, even small single-market
þ b14 BRSHAREi;t1 þ b15 SCORPit þ eit : ð1Þ banks may derive a substantial portion of their profits from activ-
ities that cannot be classified as either retail deposit taking or local
The dependent variable, PROFit is a measure of the profitability of lending, and how the presence of large banking organizations af-
small single-market bank i at time t. HHImt denotes the value of fects the profitability of these activities is not clear. Thus, the over-
the Herfindahl–Hirschman index of concentration (defined as the all relationship between small single-market bank profitability and
sum of squared deposit market shares) for market m (the market large bank presence may depend on the mix of activities in which
in which bank i is located) at time t. ln SIZEi,t1 denotes the nat- the small single-market banks participate. The Park and Pennacchi
ural log of the total assets of bank i at time t  1.7 Following Bar- (forthcoming) model does not address the effects of the presence of
ros (1999) and Hannan and Prager (2004), and consistent with the small primarily-out-of-market banks on the profitability of SSMBs;
theoretical models of spatial competition developed in those pa- however, we can infer that the model would predict an effect only
pers, we use the share of market branches (excluding those if SPOMBs and SSMBS face different costs.
owned by bank i) owned by a particular type of bank to measure The sign of the coefficient of the interaction between HHImt and
the presence of that type of bank in the local market.8 In order to LPOMBSHRm,t1, b6, is expected to be negative, even if we cannot
distinguish between the role of competitors’ size and the role of predict the sign of the coefficient of LPOMBSHRm,t1. The reason
competitors’ geographic focus in influencing SSMB profitability, is that, as noted above, greater presence of LPOMBs should cause
we include on the right-hand-side of our equation the shares of the profits that SSMBs derive from retail deposits to rise by less,
branches in market m that are owned by large primarily-out-of- and the profits that SSMBs derive from lending operations to de-
market banks (LPOMBSHRm,t1), large banks that do not operate cline by more, if the market in which the SSMB operates is rela-
primarily-out-of-market (LNPOMBSHRm,t1), and small primarily- tively concentrated. This implies that the coefficient on the
out-of-market banks (SPOMBSHRm,t1). ln POPmt denotes the natu- interaction term will be negative, regardless of the sign of b3.
ral log of the population of market m at time t, and PCImt denotes Although the Park and Pennacchi (forthcoming) model does not
the per capita income observed for market m at time t. have anything to say about the effect of the presence of SPOMBs
BRSHAREi,t1 denotes the share of branches in the market owned on the profitability of SSMBs, the lack of responsiveness of POMB
by bank i at time t  1 and SCORPit is a dummy variable equal to prices to local market conditions discussed earlier implies that
one if bank i is an S-Corporation at time t and zero otherwise.9 the coefficient on the interaction between HHImt and SPO-
Eq. (1) is estimated using panel data procedures that employ bank MBSHRm,t1 should be negative. The predictions regarding the
and time fixed effects. signs of b6 and b8 have particular relevance for antitrust policy,
The coefficient of HHImt, b1, is predicted to be positive if, as im- since they imply that increased presence of primarily-out-of-mar-
plied by the structure–conduct–performance paradigm, banks in ket banks (large or small) serves to reduce the strength of the rela-
more concentrated markets earn higher profits as a result of less tionship between local market structure and firm performance.
competitive behavior in the market. The variable ln SIZEi,t1, de- The expected sign of the coefficient on the interaction between
fined as the natural log of the total assets of the bank, is employed HHImt and LNPOMBSHRm,t1 is unclear, a priori, since the reason
to control for differences associated with the size of the bank. This for predicting negative coefficients for the interactions of HHImt
variable is entered in log form, since it is highly positively skewed, with both LPOMBSHRm,t1 and SPOMBSHRm,t1 does not apply in
and it is not reasonable to expect it to have a constant marginal ef- this case.10
fect on profitability throughout the substantial range over which it Interactions of ln SIZEit with LPOMBSHRm,t1, LNPOMBSHRm,t1,
is observed. The expected sign of its coefficient, b2, is unclear, a and SPOMBSHRm,t1 are also included in the estimations to allow
priori. for the possibility that the impact of large bank presence or primar-
Coefficients b3–b11 are of primary interest in testing the rela- ily-out-of-market bank presence on the profitability of small sin-
tionship between SSMB profitability and the presence of large or gle-market banks varies with the size of the small single-market
primarily-out-of-market banks. Because LPOMBSHRm,t1, bank. Such variation would be expected if the efficiency of sin-
LNPOMBSHRm,t1, and SPOMBSHRm,t1 each enter the estimated gle-market banks or the product mix they offer varies with size.
The expected signs of the coefficients on these terms are unclear,
7
Note that some right-hand-side variables (SSMB size, SSMB branch share, and the a priori.
market shares of various types of competitors) are lagged in our estimating equation
in order to mitigate potential endogeneity concerns.
8 10
Using the share of market branches rather than the share of market deposits also The predicted negative coefficients for the interactions of HHI mt with
reduces the potential for endogeneity-induced bias in our estimates. LPOMBSHRm,t1 and SPOMBSHRm,t1 derive from the proposition that the prices of
9
An S-corporation generally does not pay corporate income taxes on its profits; primarily-out-of-market banks are unresponsive to changes in concentration in the
rather, the shareholders pay income taxes on their proportionate shares of the market under consideration. This should not be true, however, in the case of large
corporation’s profits. banks that derive a substantial portion of their deposits from this market.
T.H. Hannan, R.A. Prager / Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (2009) 263–271 267

The natural log of the population of the market (ln POPmt) and MBSHR) in each market. Branch level deposit data were also used
the per capita income of the market (PCImt) are included to control to construct the measure of market concentration (HHI) for each
for the effects that these market characteristics may have on a banking market. Demographic data (population and per capita in-
bank’s profit opportunities. Market population is entered in log come) for each local banking market were obtained from the Depart-
form because, like bank assets, its distribution is extremely posi- ment of Commerce’s Regional Accounts Data.
tively skewed. We also control for the share of market branches Table 1 contains variable definitions and Table 2 presents the
owned by the observed small single-market bank (BRSHAREi,t1). mean values for each variable used in the analysis, year-by-year,
The coefficient of this variable should be positive if it serves as for both urban and rural markets. A few patterns in these data
an indicator of bank-specific market power. Alternatively, after are worth noting: (i) SSMBs operating in rural markets consistently
controlling for bank size, a larger branch share may indicate higher earn higher average rates of return on assets than do SSMBs oper-
costs of serving the same number of banking customers, in which ating in urban markets. (ii) The average SSMB in an urban market is
case the coefficient sign would be expected to be negative. more than twice as large, in terms of assets, as the average SSMB
Finally, we include the dummy variable SCORPit. A surprising operating in a rural market. (iii) The average share of market
number of small single-market banks are organized as S-Corpora- branches owned by the individual SSMBs in our sample is quite
tions (28% of the sample in 2003). Their reported net income tends stable over time (about 19% in rural markets and about 2% in urban
to be higher than that reported by other organizations because markets), despite the substantial declines in the average aggregate
they do not pay corporate income taxes. Thus, we expect the coef- shares of all SSMBs from 1996 to 2003 (from 58.0% to 45.3% in rural
ficient on this variable to be positive. markets, and from 29.9% to 22.5% in urban markets) shown in Figs.
1 and 2 (in these figures, LPOMBSHR is the average share of market
4. The data branches operated by large, primarily-out-of-market banks;
LNPOMBSHR is the average share of market branches operated
The data used in this study were obtained from a number of by large, not primarily-out-of-market banks; SPOMBSHR is the
sources, including quarterly reports of condition and income (call average share of market branches operated by small, primarily-
reports) filed by each depository institution, the Federal Deposit out-of-market banks; and SSMBSHR is the average share of market
Insurance Corporation’s Summary of Deposits (SOD), the Office of branches operated by small single-market banks). (iv) The average
Thrift Supervision’s Branch Office Survey (BOS), and the Depart- share of market branches owned collectively by LPOMBs increased
ment of Commerce’s Regional Accounts Data. Following the previ- substantially from 1996 to 2003 (from 13.9% to 20.3% in rural mar-
ous literature, we define local banking markets as either kets, and from 25.5% to 45.7% in urban markets), but the average
metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs or urban markets) or non- aggregate share of market branches owned by LNPOMBs declined
MSA counties (rural markets).11 For purposes of our analysis, we de- during this same time period (from 4.7% to 1.7% in rural markets,
fine a small single-market bank as one that is not a subsidiary of a and from 35.1% to 21.1% in urban markets).
multi-bank holding company, has total assets of less than $1 billion,
and derives at least 90% of its deposits from a single local banking 5. Results
market.12 A primarily-out-of-market bank is defined, relative to a
particular local banking market, as an institution that derives less We estimate Eq. (1) separately for banks operating in rural and
than 30% of its deposits from that market. A large banking organiza- urban banking markets. HHI is scaled so that its value ranges from
tion is defined as one that has total banking assets greater than or 0 to 1, rather than from 0 to 10,000. The results of these estima-
equal to $1 billion. tions, using two different profit measures (ROA and ROE), are pre-
The dependent variable in our analysis is profitability, mea- sented in Table 3. All models include bank fixed effects and year
sured as either return on assets (ROA) or return on equity (ROE). fixed effects.
The profitability measures, as well as our measure of bank size Looking first at the results for banks operating in rural markets
(natural log of total banking assets) are derived from bank Call Re- (columns 1 and 2), we find similar results for the two profit mea-
ports. Information about the locations of branches and the deposits sures (keeping in mind that the average value of ROE is about 10
held by each depository institution in each local market were ob- times the average value of ROA). Consistent with expectations,
tained from the SOD (for commercial banks) and the BOS (for the estimated coefficient on HHI is positive and statistically signif-
thrifts).13 This information was used to determine the share of each icant, indicating that banks operating in more highly concentrated
institution’s deposits held in each market, thereby enabling us to
classify each bank as a single-market bank with essentially all of Table 1
its deposits derived from the market under consideration, a primar- Variable definitions
ily-out-of-market bank with respect to the market under consider-
ROA Return on assets = income before extraordinary items and other
ation, or neither, and to determine the share of market branches adjustments divided by total assets, for observed bank (%)
owned by each small single-market bank in our sample (BRSHARE) ROE Return on equity = income before extraordinary items and other
and collectively by the large primarily-out-of-market banks adjustments divided by total equity capital, for observed bank (%)
(LPOMBSHR), the large, not primarily-out-of-market banks HHI Deposit-based Herfindahl–Hirschman index for market
SIZE Total assets of observed bank (thousands of dollars)
(LNPOMBSHR), and the small primarily-out-of-market banks (SPO- ln SIZE Natural logarithm of total assets of observed bank
LPOMBSHR Share of market branches owned by large primarily-out-of-market
banks
11
A large number of papers define retail banking markets in this way. Dick (2008) is LNPOMBSHR Share of market branches owned by large, not primarily-out-of-
a recent example. market banks
12
We exclude from our sample small single-market banks operating in a few SPOMBSHR Share of market branches owned by small primarily-out-of-market
metropolitan markets (New York; Wilmington, DE; and Salt Lake City, UT) because of banks
the presence of some very large special purpose banks in these markets that might POP Market population (thousands)
distort the values of some of our market-level variables. We also exclude from the ln POP Natural logarithm of market population
sample those small single-market banks that are less than two years old, because very PCI Market per capita income (thousands of dollars)
young firms tend to have atypical earnings. We thank an anonymous referee for BRSHARE Share of market branches owned by observed bank
suggesting the latter exclusion. SCORP Dummy variable equal to one if observed bank is an S-corporation
13
Throughout this paper, the term ‘‘branches” should be interpreted to include head and zero otherwise
offices.
268 T.H. Hannan, R.A. Prager / Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (2009) 263–271

Table 2
Mean values of variables by market type and year

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


Rural markets
ROA (%) 1.178 1.200 1.173 1.131 1.159 1.055 1.131 1.085
ROE (%) 11.091 11.055 10.643 10.521 10.971 9.495 10.241 9.799
HHI 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.259 0.257 0.258 0.258 0.258
SIZE ($ thousand) 48,980 51,676 53,211 55,412 57,468 58,894 62,654 65,991
LPOMBSHR 0.139 0.149 0.156 0.170 0.183 0.192 0.202 0.203
LNPOMBSHR 0.047 0.040 0.039 0.037 0.034 0.027 0.019 0.017
SPOMBSHR 0.111 0.118 0.124 0.129 0.137 0.144 0.150 0.158
POP (thousands) 26.51 26.62 26.68 26.54 26.68 26.73 27.08 27.60
PCI ($ thousand) 18.92 19.68 20.55 21.05 22.04 22.80 22.95 24.26
BRSHARE 0.195 0.194 0.193 0.193 0.191 0.191 0.190 0.189
SCORP 0.080 0.079 0.158 0.198 0.243 0.292 0.325 0.349
Urban markets
ROA (%) 1.129 1.135 1.093 1.024 1.041 0.937 0.978 0.952
ROE (%) 11.974 11.943 11.527 11.182 11.453 9.946 10.363 10.034
HHI 0.119 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.121 0.120 0.120 0.124
SIZE ($ thousand) 102,850 111,336 119,486 129,344 134,839 142,544 146,950 157,453
LPOMBSHR 0.255 0.286 0.328 0.360 0.394 0.419 0.447 0.457
LNPOMBSHR 0.351 0.329 0.293 0.272 0.252 0.232 0.215 0.211
SPOMBSHR 0.027 0.028 0.032 0.033 0.033 0.036 0.037 0.040
POP (thousands) 1996 2064 2109 2140 2146 2168 2216 2208
PCI ($ thousand) 24.64 25.87 27.53 28.63 30.53 31.26 31.70 32.41
BRSHARE 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.019 0.018 0.018
SCORP 0.062 0.055 0.108 0.137 0.148 0.174 0.192 0.208

0.6 tion explaining ROA, but positive and statistically insignificant in


Share of Market Branches

0.5 the equation explaining ROE.


The coefficients on LPOMBSHR, LNPOMBSHR and SPOMBSHR
0.4
are all negative, highly significant, and of roughly similar magni-
0.3 tudes.14 Also, the estimated coefficients on the interactions of ln SIZE
0.2 with LPOMBSHR, LNPOMBSHR and SPOMBSHR are all positive and
0.1
highly significant, and in each case the magnitude of the coefficient
on the interaction term is approximately one-tenth the magnitude of
0
the coefficient on the share term alone.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
An interesting distinction, however, occurs between the coef-
Year
ficients on the interactions of HHI with LPOMBSHR and SPO-
LPOMBSHR LNPOMBSHR SPOMBSHR SSMBSHR
MBSHR, on the one hand, and LNPOMBSHR, on the other hand.
Fig. 1. Rural market branch shares. In this figure, LPOMBSHR is the average share of
While the estimated coefficients on HHI  LPOMBSHR and
market branches operated by large, primarily-out-of-market banks; LNPOMBSHR is HHI  SPOMBSHR are negative and significant, the estimated
the average share of market branches operated by large, not primarily-out-of- coefficients on HHI  LNPOMBSHR are far from statistically sig-
market banks; SPOMBSHR is the average share of market branches operated by nificant. As noted above, the prediction of negative relationships
small, primarily-out-of-market banks; and SSMBSHR is the average share of market
between SSMB profitability and both HHI  LPOMBSHR and
branches operated by small single-market banks.
HHI  SPOMBSHR rests on the proposition that primarily-out-
of-market banks (defined here as those banks that derive less
0.5 than 30% of their deposits from the observed market) charge
Share of Market Branches

prices that do not respond (or respond very little) to competitive


0.4 conditions in the observed market. One would not expect this to
0.3 be the case for large banks that derive a substantial share of
their deposits (in this case, more than 30%) from the observed lo-
0.2 cal market. Thus, this difference in results seems to support the
0.1 view that primarily-out-of-market banks behave differently than
substantially in-market banks, when it comes to setting prices.
0 The negative coefficients on the interactions between HHI and
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
both LPOMBSHR and SPOMBSHR also suggest that an increased
Year
presence of primarily-out-of-market banks reduces the strength
LPOMBSHR LNPOMBSHR SPOMBSHR SSMBSHR of the relationship between local market concentration and the
ability of single-market banks to exercise market power. The
Fig. 2. Urban market branch shares. In this figure, LPOMBSHR is the average share
weakening of the links between market structure, conduct, and
of market branches operated by large, primarily-out-of-market banks; LNPOMBSHR
is the average share of market branches operated by large, not primarily-out-of- performance in local banking markets has potentially important
market banks; SPOMBSHR is the average share of market branches operated by implications for the competitive analysis of bank merger applica-
small, primarily-out-of-market banks; and SSMBSHR is the average share of market
branches operated by small single-market banks.

rural banking markets earn higher rates of return. The estimated 14


We cannot reject the hypothesis that these three coefficients are equal to each
coefficient on ln SIZE is negative and highly significant in the equa- other.
T.H. Hannan, R.A. Prager / Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (2009) 263–271 269

Table 3 tive or, in some cases, negative.16 Our finding of a positive effect of
Determinants of small single-market bank profitability the presence of large primarily-out-of-market banks on the profit-
Dependent variable Market type ability of an average rural market SSMB is consistent with the results
Rural Urban reported by Pilloff (1999), the only previous paper that we know of
to examine this question in a rural market context.
(1) ROA (2) ROE (3) ROA (4) ROE
We also find evidence of a negative relationship between mar-
Intercept 2.718*** 25.821*** 4.833** 42.647 ket size, as measured by the log of population, and small single-
(4.40) (2.93) (2.02) (1.64)
HHI 0.236* 2.461** 0.241 10.444
market bank profitability, and a positive relationship between
(1.92) (2.01) (0.34) (1.36) per capita income and SSMB profitability. We find no significant
ln SIZE 0.168*** 0.270 0.088* 2.042*** relationship between an SSMB’s (lagged) share of market branches
(5.24) (0.84) (1.79) (3.82) and its profitability in rural banking markets. Finally, as expected,
LPOMBSHR 2.648*** 22.721*** 0.873 12.677
we find that banks that are organized as S-Corporations report sig-
(5.28) (4.54) (1.21) (1.62)
LNPOMBSHR 2.356*** 17.276** 1.488* 20.972** nificantly higher profits than do other banks.
(3.44) (2.53) (1.87) (2.43) The results for SSMBs operating in urban markets (columns 3
SPOMBSHR 1.959*** 19.173*** 3.391* 19.146 and 4) are quite different from our rural market findings. Unlike
(4.07) (3.99) (1.65) (0.86) rural markets, in urban markets we find no significant relationship
HHI*LPOMBSHR 0.579** 8.451*** 0.435 16.647
(2.06) (3.02) (0.45) (1.60)
between market concentration (HHI) and small single-market bank
HHI*LNPOMBSHR 0.587 3.628 1.218 21.044* profits. This may reflect the fact that urban markets are generally
(1.25) (0.77) (1.14) (1.81) far less concentrated than rural markets, with the vast majority
HHI*SPOMBSHR 0.397* 4.511** 0.638 1.554 of observations occurring in markets with HHI values below 0.18
(1.74) (1.98) (0.25) (0.06)
(measured on a scale of 0–1), the Department of Justice’s threshold
ln SIZE*LPOMBSHR 0.267*** 2.386*** 0.067 0.809
(5.76) (5.16) (1.10) (1.21) for a highly concentrated market. Also unlike rural markets, the
ln SIZE*LNPOMBSHR 0.232*** 1.660*** 0.114* 1.504** estimated coefficient on ln SIZE is positive and statistically signifi-
(3.61) (2.59) (1.68) (2.05) cant, indicating that, in urban markets, larger SSMBs tend to be
ln SIZE*SPOMBSHR 0.199*** 1.943*** 0.295 1.610 more profitable than smaller ones.
(4.36) (4.27) (1.64) (0.82)
ln POP 0.116 2.065** 0.368** 3.999**
The estimated coefficients on LPOMBSHR, LNPOMBSHR and
(1.32) (2.35) (2.16) (2.17) SPOMBSHR are all negative, as they were in rural markets; how-
PCI 0.007** 0.093*** 0.017*** 0.139*** ever, only the coefficient on LNPOMBSHR is significantly different
(2.39) (3.37) (4.13) (3.12) from zero in both equations. The coefficient on LPOMBSHR is not
BRSHARE 0.013 0.194 1.230** 15.266**
significantly different from zero in either equation, and the coeffi-
(0.14) (0.20) (2.00) (2.29)
SCORP 0.365*** 3.674*** 0.399*** 4.436*** cient on SPOMBSHR is marginally significant in the equation
(30.28) (30.58) (20.97) (21.56) explaining ROA but insignificant in the equation explaining ROE.
N 18,977 18,977 14,725 14,725 The estimated coefficients on the interactions between each of
R2 (within) 0.083 0.086 0.055 0.062 these market share variables and ln SIZE are all positive, but only
the interaction between ln SIZE and LNPOMBSHR is significant.
Note: Bank and year fixed effects are included. T-statistics are in parentheses. *, **,
and *** denote significance at the 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01 levels, respectively. The coefficients on the interactions between HHI and the market
share variables are statistically insignificant, with the exception
of the positive coefficient on the interaction with LNPOMBSHR in
tions, as primarily-out-of-market banks become increasingly
the ROE equation. For an urban market SSMB of about average size
prevalent.
for our sample (total assets of $130 million) operating in a market
Because LPOMBSHR, LNPOMBSHR, and SPOMBSHR each enter
with about average concentration (HHI of 0.12), the net effect of an
the estimated equation by themselves and interacted with both
increase in LPOMBSHR, LNPOMBSHR or SPOMBSHR on profitability
HHI and ln SIZE, the estimated effect of a given increase in
is not significantly different from zero. Thus, there is little evidence
LPOMBSHR, LNPOMBSHR or SPOMBSHR on a small single-market
that an increased presence of large or primarily-out-of-market
bank’s profitability depends on the SSMB’s size and the level of
firms has any impact on the profitability of small single-market
concentration in its market. For a rural market SSMB of about aver-
banks in urban banking markets.
age size for our sample (total assets of $57 million) operating in a
Two previous studies, Whalen (2001) and BDGW (2007), have
market with about average concentration (HHI of 0.26 on a scale of
examined the effects of the presence of large, multi-market bank-
0–1), an increase in the value of LPOMBSHR by 0.1 (10 percentage
ing organizations on the profitability of small single-market banks
points) would be associated with a 1.2 basis point increase in ROA
operating in urban markets. Whalen (2001) finds a negative rela-
and a 12.0 basis point increase in ROE. For the same SSMB, an in-
tionship between the market share of multi-state bank holding
crease in the value of SPOMBSHR by 0.1 would be associated with
companies and small bank profitability in Metropolitan Statistical
a 1.2 basis point increase in ROA and a 9.2 basis point increase in
Areas during the 1995–1999 period; BDGW find that, in the
ROE. These effects are significantly different from zero at the 0.05
1990s, increases in the market shares of large single-market banks,
level or better. In contrast, the changes in SSMB profitability asso-
large multi-market banks, or small multi-market banks in urban
ciated with an increase in the value of LNPOMBSHR by 0.1 are not
markets are associated with significantly lower profitability for
statistically significant.15 For larger SSMBs or SSMBs operating in
SSMBs. It is unclear why our results differ from those obtained in
less concentrated markets, the profitability effects associated with
these earlier studies; however differences in the time periods cov-
an increased presence of LPOMBs or SPOMBs would be more
ered, the definitions of multi-market and small single-market
strongly positive. However, for smaller SSMBs or those operating
in more highly concentrated markets, the effects would be less posi-
16
For example, for an SSMB with total assets less than $36 million operating in a
rural market with average concentration, or an SSMB of average size operating in a
market with HHI greater than 0.47, an increase in LPOMBSHR would be associated
with a decline in ROA. Within our sample, the rural market HHIs range from 0.07 to
15
The magnitudes of these changes are +0.3 basis points for ROA and 0.4 basis 0.96, with a standard deviation of 0.13, while rural market SSMB assets range from
points for ROE. $1.1 million to $654 million, with a standard deviation of $50 million.
270 T.H. Hannan, R.A. Prager / Journal of Banking & Finance 33 (2009) 263–271

banks, and model specification are all potential contributing fac- market banks offer are less responsive to local market conditions
tors. Definitional and specification differences between our model (i.e., differences in concentration) than are the prices of banks that
and Whalen’s are substantial and likely account for the differences derive a substantial portion of their business from the local bank-
in findings between the two studies. Differences in the time period ing market.
covered are likely the primary source of discrepancies between our Our finding that an increased presence of primarily-out-of-mar-
results and those of BDGW. Consistent with this explanation, ket banks in rural banking markets reduces the positive effect of an
BDGW report that the negative profitability effect that they esti- increase in concentration on SSMB profits suggests that the rela-
mate for the 1990s ‘‘is principally concentrated in the early tionship between local market structure and bank behavior and
1990s”, a period which predates that examined in our paper.17 performance may be weakening over time. This, in turn, has poten-
Estimated coefficients on the log of market population are neg- tially important implications for bank merger policy, which has
ative and significant, and estimated coefficients on per capita in- traditionally relied upon the relevance of the structure–conduct–
come are positive and significant, as was true for rural markets. performance paradigm. In particular, our results suggest that in
We also find a positive relationship between an SSMB’s (lagged) assessing the likely competitive effects of a proposed merger or
share of market branches and both its ROA and its ROE, and a acquisition within a particular local banking market, it may be
strong positive relationship between S-Corporation status and appropriate for antitrust authorities to take into account the share
both ROA and ROE. of local market branches operated by primarily out-of-market
banks.
6. Conclusion Our finding that an increase in the presence of large or primar-
ily-out-of-market banking organizations in rural markets is associ-
Large, geographically diversified banking organizations have ated with either an increase or a reduction in the profitability of
become increasingly important in the United States in recent small single-market banks, depending on the SSMB’s size and the
years. As a result, an increasing number of small single-market concentration of the market, is new. For all but the very smallest
banks find themselves facing competition from large firms that SSMBs or SSMBs operating in very highly concentrated markets,
operate primarily outside of their local banking market. A grow- our results suggest that the profitability of SSMBs in rural markets
ing body of evidence suggests that large geographically diversi- rises with an increase in the presence of large or small primarily-
fied banking organizations behave differently from small single- out-of-market competitors. This result, combined with our finding
market banks in deciding what prices to charge for the products of no effect of the presence of large or small primarily-out-of-mar-
and services they offer. Because of its relevance to both antitrust ket banking organizations on the profitability of urban market
policy and the future viability of community banks, we examine SSMBs, should mitigate concerns raised by previous studies
in this paper the relationship between the profitability of small regarding the viability of small single-market banks in an era of
single-market banks and the market presence of banks that are multi-market banking.
large or primarily-out-of-market. In order to disentangle the ef-
fects of size from the effects of geographic focus, we include in Acknowledgement
our analysis measures of the market presence of large primar-
ily-out-of-market banks, large banks that are not primarily-out- We thank Onka Tenkean for outstanding research assistance on
of-market, and small primarily-out-of-market banks. We pay this project and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions.
particular attention to the interactions of these measures with This paper was originally submitted to Professor Giorgio Szego
market concentration, since it is in the coefficients of these inter- on July 19, 2006 and was revised three times prior to submission
action terms that recent literature suggests the difference through EES.
between large primarily-out-of-market and large in-market
competitors should be observed. References
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