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OFFICE MARKET OUTLOOK
Q4 2017
The U.S. office market maintained its vigor in 2017. Occupancy remains at peak levels
and rents are holding firm. The national office vacancy rate has been virtually static
for eight successive quarters. Construction remains elevated, but deliveries look to
have peaked. Absorption and sales volume were down over the year but there is no Market Indicators
immediate risk of a market correction. Relative to Prior Period
Q4 2017 Q4 2018*
And the economic outlook offers some bright spots for the office sector in the form
VACANCY
of sustained growth, tax cuts and business-friendly regulatory reform in Washington.
However, rising inflation and interest rates are potential dark clouds on the horizon, NET ABSORPTION
as most businesses seek to curtail costs while investors could be impacted by rising
CONSTRUCTION
finance costs and a tightening yield-gap.
RENTAL RATE**
Tech-centric markets should continue to out-perform as the frantic pace of business
expansion in the sector shows no sign of slowing. Co-working space operators are also *Projected
**Rental rates for current quarter are for CBD; rent
in growth mode with a business model that seeks to challenge existing lease structures forecast is for metrowide rents.
and the nature of space usage, unlikely in the immediate future.
>> Absorption Declines but High-End Space Remains in Demand: While U.S. office Downtown Class A $46.39
absorption held steady in Q4 2017, it fell by 28% year over year to 41.9 million square Change From Q3 2017 -0.8%
feet. Class A space accounts for 84% of space absorbed in Q4 2017. Tenants are Change From Q4 2016 -1.5%
focusing on high-end space to provide the optimum environment to retain and attract
Suburban Class A $29.92
the best talent.
Change From Q3 2017 +0.4%
>> Investment Volume is Down. Suburban Assets Remain in Most Demand: Total U.S. Change From Q4 2016 +3.6%
office sales volume for 2017 was $131.9 billion, down by 8% over the year. Investors
continue to focus on the suburbs in search of higher yields, accounting for 63% of the
2017 sales total. CBD sales volume fell by 21% in 2017 to $48.8 billion. Capitalization
(cap) rates are holding firm but price appreciation continues to slow with only a 3%
increase in 2017.
Economy The consensus GDP growth forecast for 2018 is 2.7%, still below
America’s economic expansion has clocked more than 100 months, the long-term average but it would be the strongest year since
and by mid-2018 will be the second longest in U.S. history—and 2015. However, a slowdown becomes a real possibility for 2019
now the economy is getting new life courtesy of the strengthening and especially 2020, as the cumulative effect of Fed rate hikes take
global economy and the tax cut stimulus from Washington. full effect.
Real GDP grew an estimated 2.3% in 2017, exactly in line with the Office real estate will benefit directly from the relatively strong
consensus forecast a year ago. This is a marked improvement over growth this year. However, we do not anticipate that the office
the anemic 1.5% growth in 2016, but still below the 2.6% rate in sector will benefit significantly from the tax bill. Some key
2014 and 2.9% in 2015. Still, the economy continues to expand, if office tenants, like tech and finance, will gain only average tax
slowly, to the benefit of property markets and most investors. savings from the new tax code, while others, like healthcare and
Consumption, which accounts for over two-thirds of the U.S. professional services, will see more limited gains. Moreover, many
economy, grew by 2.7%—the same as in 2016. Wage growth corporations are expected to distribute much of their tax savings
remains stubbornly weak, notwithstanding the 4.1% unemployment to shareholders through dividends and share buy-backs, instead of
rate that puts the economy essentially at full employment, which investing in new facilities.
holds back further gains in consumer spending. Meanwhile, job
growth continues to be strong, if not quite as robust as earlier in Top U.S. Office Leases | Q4 2017
the cycle. Firms are finding it increasingly difficult to hire qualified TENANT ADDRESS MARKET SF TENANT INDUSTRY
workers for their open positions. Rainier Square
Amazon Seattle 738,900 Technology
400,000
Development
U.S. Job Growth Trends - 2 Month Moving Average San
Dropbox The Exchange 736,550 Technology
Francisco
300,000
One Manhattan Professional
Ernst & Young Manhattan 604,205
West Services
Immigrations
200,000
Potomac Center Washington
& Customs 503,000 Government
North D.C.
Enforcement *
Charter Gateway Harbor
100,000
Westchester 500,000 Technology
Communications Point
*Renewal
0
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17
Sources: CoStar, Colliers International
Office Using Employment Non-Farm Employment
Source: BLS
Top U.S. Office Sales | Q4 2017
Looking forward, three factors should drive the economy upward in PRICE
ADDRESS MARKET SF BUYER
2018. First, the synchronized pickup in economic growth globally (MILLIONS)
is expected to gain momentum. Second, the tax cut and reform bill One Astor Plaza, Allianz RE of
Manhattan 1,750,000 $1,950
enacted late last year should provide a clear, if relatively modest, 1515 Broadway America
boost in 2018. Finally, business investment in capital goods Worldwide Plaza, R&R Realty, SL
Manhattan 2,048,550 $1,725
and structures should continue at an elevated pace as business 825 Eighth Ave. * Green
confidence remains exceptionally high. Corporate America’s mood One Liberty Plaza,
Manhattan 2,346,000 $1,515 Blackstone
has been lifted by a trifecta of favorable factors: the sweeping tax 165 Broadway
cuts and reform, business-friendly regulatory reform in Washington State Farm @ Transwestern,
Phoenix 2,118,000 $928
and the improving overseas markets. Marina Heights * JDM Partners
*Joint Venture
Source: Colliers International, Real Capital Analytics
Seattle-Puget Sound, WA
-2.1% Cleveland-Akron, OH
-0.3%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
Portland, OR 1.2%
-0.4%
Detroit, MI New York City Metro
-1.4% 0.0%
Chicago, IL Pittsburgh, PA Boston, MA
0.4% 0.6% -0.1%
San Francisco Bay Area, CA
0.9% Denver, CO
0.8% Cincinnati, OH Philadelphia, PA
0.1% -0.3%
Sacramento, CA Columbus, OH Baltimore
-0.9% Kansas City, MO-KS 1.3% Metropolitan
-2.0% Charlotte, NC Area
Greater Los Angeles, CA -0.2%
0.4% Phoenix, AZ Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 1.5%
-0.2% Washington, D.C.
0.6% -0.2%
Raleigh-Durham, NC
Atlanta, GA 1.0%
San Diego, CA Austin, TX 0.5%
0.3% 0.3% Orlando, FL
Tampa Bay, FL
-2.2% -1.2%
YOY Change in Vacancy Houston, TX
1.6% South Florida
-3.0% 3.0% -1.3%
Seattle-Puget Sound, WA
6.5% Cleveland-Akron, OH
-4.5%
Portland, OR Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
4.4% 2.8%
Detroit, MI New York City Metro
5.1% 0.8%
Chicago, IL Pittsburgh, PA Boston, MA
5.9% 13.8% 1.8%
San Francisco Bay Area, CA
3.1% Denver, CO
1.2% Cincinnati, OH Philadelphia, PA
-0.3% 0.4%
Sacramento, CA Columbus, OH Baltimore
6.2% Kansas City, MO-KS -9.8% Metropolitan
5.6% Charlotte, NC Area
Greater Los Angeles, CA -1.7%
0.4% Phoenix, AZ Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 5.8%
4.7% Washington, D.C.
2.2% 2.5%
Source: Colliers International Raleigh-Durham, NC
Atlanta, GA 3.2%
San Diego, CA Austin, TX 9.1%
-1.7% -0.5% Orlando, FL
Tampa Bay, FL
3.1% 7.3%
Houston, TX
YOY Change in Rent -0.1%
-10.0% South Florida
10.0% 0.3%
Concerns of over-supply in Washington, D.C., where vacancy is Source: Real Capital Analytics
6. Investment Sales Investors also could be impacted by rising finance costs and a tightening yield-gap. While this points to an even
greater focus on the higher cap rates offered by suburban assets, core and risk averse buyers may move to the sidelines or restructure
their sector allocations. Unless there is a compelling need to sell, look for fewer trophy CBD assets being brought to market. Meanwhile
with Chinese firms still discouraged from off-shore deals, look for cross-border sales to continue to slump.
Pittsburgh =
8%
Detroit L
6%
L
Kansas City Manhattan =
4%
L Raleigh-Durham
2%
0% Median
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
Q4 2017 Average CBD Rent, All Classes ($/SF/Year)
Source: Colliers Q4 2017 office survey. Tenant-landlord assessment reflects conditions as of Q4 2017.
3.0%
Chicago
2.5%
2.0%
YOY Change in Vacancy Rate (since Q4 2016)
1.5% Houston
Raleigh-Durham
1.0%
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Denver
Pittsburgh
Dallas
0.5% Atlanta
Median
Washington, D.C. San Diego Los Angeles
0%
Region Manhattan Boston Phoenix
Midwest Cleveland
Northeast Philadelphia
-0.5%
South
West
Source: Colliers Q4 2017 office survey. Absorption forecasts reflect a 12-month outlook.
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17 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International